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玻璃期货日报-20250806
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Glass [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: August 1, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core View - In the short - term, the glass futures may continue to show a weak trend. Supply - demand imbalance and cooling policy expectations will continue to drag down prices. With technical breakdown and short - selling capital pressure, the lower support levels will be tested. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the sentiment transmission effect in the commodity market, the rhythm of spot inventory reduction, and the actual implementation strength of capacity - reduction policies [10]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 1, 2025, the FG2509 glass contract continued to be weak. After opening, the price dropped continuously, breaking through the key support level of 1,100 yuan/ton during the session and closing with a negative line. It fell 44 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a decline of 3.84%, with a closing price of 1,102 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.616 million lots, and the open interest was 1.1692 million lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: All 12 glass futures contracts declined today, with the decline ranging from 1.92% to 4.59%. The market was dominated by bearish sentiment. The total open interest of the variety was 1.7858 million lots, an increase of 99,794 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2509 increased by 67,900 lots [4]. - **关联行情**: On the same day, the put options of glass options increased significantly in open interest, and the put options performed stronger than the call options [6]. 4.2 Spot Market - In the Shahe area, the spot trading of glass was light, the transaction center of gravity moved down, and the overall demand price remained stable [8]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply - demand Factors**: On the supply side, the current daily melting volume of float glass in production has risen to 159,600 tons, with an operating rate of 75% and a capacity utilization rate of 79.78%. The weekly average profit of float glass using coal - gas and petroleum coke as fuel exceeded 100 yuan, and the loss of natural - gas - fueled glass narrowed. On the demand side, the real - estate terminal orders were insufficient, the deep - processing orders only rebounded slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level, indicating limited actual digestion capacity [9]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory of glass enterprises reached a new low recently, decreasing by 2.397 million weight - boxes to 59.499 million weight - boxes. However, this was mainly due to the transfer of inventory to traders, and the actual terminal digestion was limited [9].
7.30政策不及市场预期,螺矿盘面短期大幅调整
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 11:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The signals released by the 7.30 meeting fell short of expectations, causing significant short - term adjustments in the screw and ore futures markets. The short - term demand for rebar is affected by seasonality and has weakened, with inventory slightly increasing. After the policy expectations are fulfilled, the short - term driving logic of rebar may return to fundamentals, and the short - term futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure. - The short - term import ore shipping volume has increased slightly, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase in the future. The port inventory will face certain pressure. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron volume continues to decrease slightly, and the steel mill's daily consumption has also declined. Steel mills continue the replenishment strategy in the short term. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures market will follow the rebar trend and remain weak [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Futures**: The rebar 10 contract adjusted significantly under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan from last week, a weekly decline of 4.56% [4]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream rebar regions generally decreased significantly, and the overall trading weakened. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped 76 yuan to 3395 yuan/ton, with different price drops in various regions [4]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.18% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57% from the previous week and up 1.37% year - on - year; the average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills in the country was 74.21%, up 2.18% from the previous week and up 12.75% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.05%, up 1.56% from the previous week and up 15.11% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 0.9 tons to 211.06 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [4]. - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China is 3215 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous week. The electric furnace profit of rebar is a loss of 145 yuan, with the loss narrowing by 5 yuan from last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces in the country continued to rise, with a slightly narrower increase [4]. - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China is 2817 yuan, up 11 yuan from the previous week. The blast furnace profit of rebar is 253 yuan, narrowing by 21 yuan from last week. The domestic blast furnace operating rate did not change significantly, while the capacity utilization rate continued to decrease slightly. With the implementation of policy expectations, the price decline of finished products was more significant than that of raw materials, and the fourth round of coke price increase was implemented, resulting in a slight contraction of long - process steel mill profits [4]. - **Demand and Inventory** - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume and rebar apparent consumption both decreased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.99 tons to 10.02 tons, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 13.17 tons to 203.41 tons, still at a low level in the same period [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar began to accumulate slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 7.65 tons to 546.29 tons, still at a low level in the same period; the social rebar inventory increased by 11.17 tons to 384.14 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3.52 tons to 162.15 tons [7]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 157 yuan over the rebar 10 contract, widening by 83 yuan from last week. The rebar basis is near the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis is more likely to continue to widen [7]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure [7]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: The iron ore 09 contract continued the adjustment trend under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decline of 2.43% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties generally decreased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron concentrate began to decline steadily. The overall trading was average [7]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: As of July 28, the total shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2755.9 tons, an increase of 203.9 tons from the previous week. The shipping volume from Australia was 1859.6 tons, an increase of 230.2 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1550.4 tons, an increase of 106.8 tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 896.4 tons, a decrease of 26.2 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [9]. - **Demand**: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 302.71 tons, a decrease of 12.44 tons from the previous week; the weekly average trading volume of port - spot iron ore is 96.64 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.71 tons, a decrease of 1.52 tons from last week and an increase of 4.09 tons compared to last year; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 299.46 tons, a decrease of 1.65 tons [9]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the 45 - port iron ore inventory began to decrease slightly, currently at 13657.90 tons, a decrease of 132.48 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9012.09 tons, an increase of 126.87 tons [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Qingdao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 807 yuan/ton, with a premium of 24 yuan over the continuous iron 10 contract, widening by 5 yuan from last week. The iron ore basis is at the average level, and it is expected that the iron ore basis is more likely to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term iron ore futures market is expected to follow the rebar trend and remain weak [9].
生猪、玉米周报-20250804
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 11:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs has some support, but it is still under pressure later; the corn price is supported in the short - term but has limited upside space with pressure on the upper side of the market and may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures showed a weak trend. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,055 yuan/ton, a 2.63% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg. As of August 1st, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 18.31 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 116.78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 45.39 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.93, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 [5] - The national live pig spot market first declined and then stabilized last week. In the short term, downstream consumption has no obvious positive factors, and the demand boost is limited. At the beginning of the month, the enterprise's slaughter pressure weakens, and the breeding end mainly controls the quantity and stabilizes the price. After continuous market decline, second - fattening inquiries have started in some areas, providing short - term support for live pig prices. However, as breeding enterprises resume slaughter, live pig prices are still expected to be under pressure [5] Corn - Last week, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. The C2509 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, a 0.73% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,402.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09 yuan/ton. Port prices in some areas showed a slight decline [6] - From July 24th to July 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1377 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 75,300 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.76%, a 6.3% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased, with the weekly output increasing by 8.20% [7] - As of July 30th, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19%. As of August 1st, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.06 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 830,000 tons [7][8] - The national corn spot market first rose and then fell last week. The remaining grain inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing short - term supply support for corn prices. However, it is rumored that the directional rice auction may resume in August, which will help ease the tight supply of the corn market and limit the upside space of corn prices. The market is under pressure on the upper side and may fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250804
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 09:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 experienced a decline and then a rebound, closing at 6240 yuan/ton. The domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase this week due to the impact of new production - capacity utilization and restart of shutdown devices. The insufficient number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the increase in domestic pure benzene. The downstream industries of pure benzene have both load - reduction and load - increase situations, with short - term demand expected to fluctuate slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the new production capacity of downstream devices from July to August is higher than that of pure benzene, which gives an improving trend to the supply - demand of pure benzene. The international oil price is expected to be strong this week, and BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with attention paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6440 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main settlement price is 6231 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; the main trading volume is 7340 hands, up 1106 hands; the main open interest is 12859 hands, down 219 hands [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions are 6090 yuan/ton, 6060 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6055 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 20 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 6175 yuan/ton and 5900 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 50 yuan/ton and 0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) are 744 dollars/ton and 756.5 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton and 7 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 71.52 dollars/barrel, down 0.53 dollars/barrel; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 603.88 dollars/ton, down 7.12 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 43.57 tons, up 1.09 tons; the port inventory is 17 tons, down 0.1 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.92%, up 0.08%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the weekly profit of PetroChina's benzene was 643 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [2] - As of August 4th, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 16.3 tons, down 4.12% compared with the previous week [2] Viewpoint Summary - BZ2603 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6240 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the impact of restarted domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene devices last week was higher than that of newly shut - down devices. The operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 1.97% to 78.57%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.55% to 62.95%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream industries changed differently last week. The operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid changed little, while the operating rate of phenol decreased by 5% to 72.9%. In terms of inventory, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 4.12% to 16.3 tons this week. Due to the new production - capacity utilization of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene and the restart of shut - down devices, the domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase this week. The insufficient number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the increase in domestic pure benzene. The downstream industries of pure benzene have both load - reduction and load - increase situations, with short - term demand expected to fluctuate slightly. From July to August, the new production capacity of downstream devices is higher than that of pure benzene, giving an improving trend to the supply - demand of pure benzene in the medium - to - long - term. In terms of cost, the demand in the traditional peak season in the US continues, the tariff deadlock eases, and the US sanctions on Russia may cause new supply risks. The international oil price is expected to be strong this week. BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with attention paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6440 [2]
8月3日丨聚玻玻璃期现周评(第24期):玻璃期货大幅回落吐尽涨幅,现货涨势放缓显观望。
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 16:16
Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market experienced a downward trend this week, with the main contract price dropping by 121 yuan/ton, while the spot market initially rose before stabilizing, resulting in an average weekly price increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2]. Supply Side - The industry saw slight adjustments in operating rates and production due to the ignition of previously idled production lines, with inventory decreasing by 3.87% from last week, indicating ongoing destocking but at a reduced pace [2]. Demand Side - Some manufacturers adjusted their pricing, which provided some market support; however, the enthusiasm for procurement from downstream sectors has waned compared to earlier periods, leading to a slight decline in market transaction focus as the weekend approached [3]. Technical Analysis - The glass 09 contract experienced significant declines, with a weekly closing price down 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.1%, effectively reversing all gains from the previous week. The trading volume saw a substantial reduction, indicating a rapid exit of capital following the price drop, and open interest sharply decreased, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market [4]. - The technical indicators show a complete bearish arrangement, with prices consistently breaking through key support levels and operating along the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a strong downward trend [4]. Market Outlook - On the fundamental side, supply-demand imbalances have been somewhat alleviated, with some manufacturers still planning price increases; however, after a phase of inventory replenishment, companies are primarily focused on digesting existing stock, with market demand driven mainly by essential purchases [4]. - Technically, the market exhibits characteristics of a confirmed bearish trend, with concerns over low demand and high supply potentially exerting long-term pressure. Without clear favorable policies, the market is unlikely to reverse its weak trend, with attention needed on the effectiveness of the 1100 yuan/ton support level [4].
铝:震荡下行,氧化铝:回归基本面铸造,铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:44
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Volatile downward trend [1] - Alumina: Return to fundamentals [1] - Cast aluminium alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminium [1] 2. Core Views - The report provides updated fundamental data for aluminium, alumina, and cast aluminium alloy, including prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - Trump announced that the US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, during which Mexico will pay various tariffs, and the two sides will negotiate to reach a trade agreement [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminium**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 20,510, down 115 from the previous day. The trading volume was 145,300, and the position was 248,613. The LME Aluminium 3M closing price was 2,563, down 46. The LME注销仓单占比 was 3.04%, down 0.06% [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,222, up 319. The trading volume was 381,169, and the position was 135,096 [1]. - **Aluminium alloy**: The closing price of the aluminium alloy main contract was 19,950, down 120 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminium**: The domestic aluminium ingot social inventory was 525,000 tons, up 11,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminium enterprise profit was 3,830.26, down 90.00 [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,274, up 3. The alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 403 US dollars/ton, up 1 [1]. - **Aluminium alloy**: The ADC12 theoretical profit was - 249, up 72. The three - place inventory totaled 31,227 [1]. 3.3 Other Information - The trend intensity of aluminium is 0, alumina is - 1, and aluminium alloy is 0 [3].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250731
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 09:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the high-quality rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Domestically, the high oil - mill operating rate and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. The future decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal reduction substitution also reduce demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand is offset by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market fluctuates greatly, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, high - frequency data shows that palm oil production increases while exports decline, which restricts palm oil prices. However, increased exports from Indonesia, low inventory, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure in rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. But the reduction in the oil - mill operating rate and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply - side pressure. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9510 yuan/ton, down 111 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 696.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.9 Canadian dollars [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread is 61 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread is 288 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 194,637 lots, down 20,837 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 442,990 lots, down 3,790 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The top 20 net long positions of rapeseed oil are 16,891 lots, down 7,830 lots; the top 20 net long positions of rapeseed meal are 29,067 lots, down 6,136 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,487 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 1,200 sheets, an increase of 1,200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of rapeseed is 4,942.03 yuan/ton, down 33.88 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: The oil - meal ratio is 3.61, down 0.08 [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 89 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual global rapeseed production is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons [2]. - Mill inventories: The total weekly rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Regional inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.55 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 56.27 tons, down 2.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 33.41 tons, down 1.72 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.55 tons, down 0.05 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 26.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.27 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 tons, an increase of 1.11 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly feed production is 2,762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, an increase of 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.6%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.61%, up 0.5 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 18.97%, up 0.72 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.27%, up 0.21 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.66%, up 0.75 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.41%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 30, ICE rapeseed futures fell due to the weakening of CBOT soybean oil futures and good weather in western Canada. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 5.70 Canadian dollars at 696.60 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January rapeseed futures closed down 5.00 Canadian dollars at 707.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year [2].
SunCoke (SXC) Q2 Revenue Beats by 25%
The Motley Fool· 2025-07-31 08:35
Core Insights - SunCoke Energy reported mixed results for Q2 2025, with revenue exceeding expectations but earnings per share and profitability falling short of forecasts [1][5][14] - The company is facing persistent headwinds in core operating results despite strategic advancements such as the Phoenix Global acquisition [1][13] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 GAAP EPS was $0.02, missing the estimate of $0.17, and down 92% from $0.25 in Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $434.1 million, surpassing the estimate of $348.05 million but down 7.8% from $470.9 million in Q2 2024 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 31.3% year-over-year to $43.6 million [2] - Net income attributable to SunCoke was $1.9 million, a 91.2% decrease from $21.5 million in the prior year [2] Business Overview - SunCoke Energy primarily produces coke, essential for steelmaking, and operates a logistics segment for raw materials and finished coke [3] - The company relies on long-term, take-or-pay contracts with major steel producers, ensuring stable cash flow [4][9] Segment Performance - Domestic Coke segment revenue fell by 7% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA down 30% [6] - Logistics segment revenue dropped by 25.2% compared to the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA down 36.9% [7] - Brazil Coke operations remained stable with no significant year-over-year changes [8] Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Phoenix Global for $325 million is expected to enhance earnings and broaden the customer base, although it incurred upfront transaction costs [13] - The company extended its revolving credit facility to July 2030, improving liquidity [13] Future Outlook - Management reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA between $210 million and $225 million [14] - Domestic Coke production is projected at approximately 4.0 million tons in 2025, with operating cash flow expected between $165 million and $180 million [14]
现货价格走弱,期货盘面偏弱震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The overall sentiment has cooled, warehouse receipts are gradually increasing, spot prices are weakening, but the impact of disturbances at the mining end has not been completely eliminated. It is expected that the futures market will maintain a volatile trend [2]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2509 opened at 72,980 yuan/ton and closed at 70,600 yuan/ton, with a 0.43% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 792,909 lots, and the open interest was 272,753 lots, down from 300,620 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is 30 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 13,131 lots, a change of 855 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 72,000 - 73,900 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 70,300 - 71,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 780 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. - Downstream procurement willingness has slightly recovered compared to the previous period, but most enterprises still maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, expecting prices to bottom out further. Upstream lithium salt enterprises continue to hold prices firm, and some downstream enterprises purchase through the futures premium and discount pricing model. The basis in the market shows a gradually strengthening trend, and the game between buyers and sellers continues to intensify [1]. Strategy The overall sentiment has cooled, warehouse receipts are gradually increasing, spot prices are weakening, but the impact of disturbances at the mining end has not been completely eliminated. It is expected that the futures market will maintain a volatile trend [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [4]
《农产品》日报-20250731
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:19
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are likely to gradually rise, with the domestic palm oil following the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil. The key level for the domestic palm oil market is 9,000 yuan. - For soybean oil, international oil prices enhance its attractiveness in biodiesel, but CBOT soybeans may drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil prices are expected to rise after August [1]. 2. Meal - US soybeans remain weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. However, the supply after October is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract has strong upward pressure. The far - month contract is affected by policies, and short - selling is not recommended [5]. 4. Corn - In the short term, the corn market is relatively stable, and the price will fluctuate. In the medium to long term, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and relatively loose in the fourth quarter [8]. 5. Sugar - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but a bearish view is maintained overall. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is expected to be marginally loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12]. 6. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. 7. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. Some areas may see a decline in egg prices next week, but the spot price still has some upward space [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 30, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,420 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 8,240 yuan, up 0.17%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 35.07% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan on July 30, up 0.78%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,970 yuan, up 0.13%. The basis difference increased by 116.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan on July 30, up 0.94%. The futures price of O1509 was 9,621 yuan, up 1.36% [1]. 2. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,890 yuan on July 30, up 1.40%. The futures price of M2509 was 3,010 yuan, up 0.91%. The warehouse receipts decreased by 36.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,620 yuan on July 30, up 3.56%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,735 yuan, up 2.82% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,153 yuan, up 0.22% [2]. 3. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the main contract decreased by 500.00%. The price of the 2511 contract was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%, and the 2509 contract was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [5]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 13,880 yuan, down 200.0 yuan. The slaughter volume increased by 0.61%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 31.61% [5]. 4. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,312 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.43%. The basis difference decreased by 20.83%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8.05% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of the 2509 contract was 2,683 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.64%. The basis difference decreased by 121.43%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 24.29% [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,667 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.13%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,804 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The ICE raw sugar price decreased by 0.60% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning remained at 6,050 yuan. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.87%, and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.89% [12]. 6. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,755 yuan/ton on July 30, down 1.22%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,905 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The ICE cotton price decreased by 0.24% [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,343 yuan, down 0.57%. The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% [14]. 7. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,570 yuan/500KG on July 30, down 0.17%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,271 yuan/500KG, down 2.33% [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price remained at 3.20 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 6.64%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.53% [16][18]