1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The short - term market is expected to remain range - bound. The report suggests temporarily observing the market, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips [8][92][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2605 ranged between 15,680 - 16,390 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating and upward - trending pattern with a significant overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of January 9, 2026, the main contract closed at 16,030 yuan/ton, up 425 points or 2.72% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [20]. - As of January 9, 2026, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai's Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to the previous week. As of January 9, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [28]. - As of January 9, 2026, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [31]. Important Market Information - Geopolitical events include the US "blitz" on Venezuela and related international responses. The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation was completely dashed. The US economic data showed mixed results, with some indicators improving and others weakening. China's economic data, such as CPI and PPI, showed certain trends, and the auto market had various sales data and promotional activities [32][35][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's and India's increased slightly, Vietnam's and China's increased slightly. The total production in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [42]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the cumulative production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [45][48]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [53]. Demand - side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week [57]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.1%; the monthly sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2% [61][64]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 113,246 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 65.38% and a month - on - month increase of 6.64% [70]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [73][78]. Inventory - side Situation - As of January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from the previous week. - As of January 4, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 815,000 tons, an increase of 3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 417,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. - As of January 4, 2026, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade natural rubber in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8% [88]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: China's natural rubber domestic production area ended its 2025 tapping season, while Southeast Asian main production areas were in the peak tapping season. Due to recent low temperatures in northeastern Thailand and heavy rainfall in southern Thailand, overseas raw material prices remained high. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly. Currently in the seasonal consumption off - season, enterprises' overall shipment pace was slow, and finished - product inventories increased. In the terminal auto market, although December 2025 passenger car sales decreased year - on - year, the cumulative sales for the year increased slightly. The export volume of Chinese rubber tires from January to November 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [89]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with an accelerating inventory - building speed [90]. 后市展望 - The macro - situation has limited impact on natural rubber prices due to the US - Venezuela conflict. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and other factors affect the macro - sentiment. From the fundamental perspective, the supply side has high - priced overseas raw materials due to weather, the demand side is in a seasonal off - season with some short - term fluctuations in enterprise operating rates, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the natural rubber market is in a state of multi - empty game, and the short - term market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Key factors to be followed include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather in rubber - producing areas, inventory - building, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal demand changes [91][92]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - sided trading, temporarily observe, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, temporarily observe [93][94].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices raises questions about whether it reflects genuine demand in the industry or is driven by speculative capital and potential risks, indicating a distortion of price signals and risk transfer within the lithium battery supply chain [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 7, 2026, lithium carbonate futures prices reached 145,000 yuan/ton, with spot market prices also rising sharply, surpassing 120,000 yuan/ton and 130,000 yuan/ton, indicating a continued upward trend since last year [3]. - By December 2025, the capital in the lithium carbonate futures market approached 30 billion yuan, ranking fourth among commodity futures, with speculative funds accounting for 52% of the total, highlighting a market driven more by profit-seeking than risk hedging [5]. - The disparity between futures and spot prices has widened, with futures prices trading at a discount to spot prices, indicating a detachment from the underlying supply-demand fundamentals [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Insights - Downstream enterprises report that current transactions are primarily driven by essential needs, with no significant stockpiling behavior observed, contrasting sharply with the heated futures market [6]. - The surge in futures prices has led to increased import prices for lithium concentrate, which rose from 617 USD/ton in June 2025 to 1,400 USD/ton by December, a 127% increase, forcing lithium salt manufacturers to pass on costs to downstream products [8]. - The actual global lithium resource situation is not one of scarcity, but rather a structural contradiction in the supply chain, with significant resources concentrated in specific regions, leading to high raw material costs for domestic industries [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Predictions - Experts note that while there have been significant changes in the lithium carbonate industry since 2025, the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, with predictions indicating a slight surplus in 2025 [11]. - Domestic companies are actively expanding production capacity, with new projects being launched, such as a 450,000-ton phosphoric acid lithium project and a 30,000-ton high-purity lithium salt project [12]. - The real issue in the market is not an overall surplus but a structural tension in high-quality battery-grade capacity, with speculation distorting the perception of a general shortage [12]. Group 4: Regulatory Actions and Market Stability - The speculative nature of the market poses significant risks to the health of the industry, leading to distorted business operations and potential over-investment in low-quality capacities [15]. - Regulatory bodies have begun implementing measures to curb excessive speculation, including increasing transaction costs and limiting trading volumes to stabilize the market [15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need to regulate the lithium battery industry and guide capital back to rationality, ensuring that pricing power remains aligned with fundamental industry conditions [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided on the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term and medium - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., taking into account factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation [7][8][9]. - For different futures, specific trading strategies are recommended, such as paying attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage, hedging strategies, and adjusting positions according to market trends [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - **PX**: It is in a unilateral high - level shock market. Fundamentally, it is expected to gradually weaken, but short - term support comes from cost and capital. It is recommended to pay attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage and the hedge strategy of going long PX and short PTA [7]. - **PTA**: It has strong cost support. Although the future demand is expected to decline, the current low - inventory de - stocking situation makes the unilateral price still tend to be strong. Attention should be paid to the position of narrowing processing margins [8]. - **MEG**: It shows a short - term strong rebound. With the improvement of the turnover efficiency of the intermediate trading link and the reduction of supply pressure, it is recommended to close short positions and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage [9]. 2. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock. The cost of raw materials for semi - steel tires has increased, and the profit has decreased. The demand outlook is unclear, and price competition is expected to continue [10][14][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a high - level shock. The short - term market is supported by the rise of international energy prices, and the fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, with synthetic rubber mainly following the cost side [16][18]. 3. Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired. The raw material price is stable, but there is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene. There is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The cost is high, and the demand is weak, so attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [22][23]. 4. Other Chemicals (Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, etc.) - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a weak shock. The valuation may be too high, and it is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large [26]. - **Pulp**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price has increased, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially. The price of household paper is expected to fluctuate within a range [31][32][33]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot price is stable with minor fluctuations, and the overall market is in a neutral state [35][36]. 5. Energy - related Futures (Methanol, Urea, etc.) - **Methanol**: It is short - term strong. Supported by geopolitical factors and the expectation of inventory improvement, but there is a negative feedback risk from MTO above 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [42]. - **Urea**: It has a short - term correction and is medium - term strong. The agricultural demand expectation is strong, and the callback range is limited [46]. 6. Other Futures (Styrene, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term shock. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting at high levels [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid, with a neutral market [52]. 7. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving factors [55]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [56]. 8. PVC - It is in a weak shock. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [64]. 9. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has a sharp short - term weakening, but there is still support below [67]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session continues to rise, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to rebound [67]. 10. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may have a short - term strong shock. For the 02 and 04 contracts, positions should be reduced as appropriate. The 2602 contract valuation may be in the range of 1730 - 1780 points under a certain freight rate deduction, and the 2604 contract is in a weak supply - demand balance in the off - season [69][82]. 11. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - **Short - fiber**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The futures are in general shock, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 72% [85]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The upstream raw material futures are in shock, and the factory quotes are mostly stable with partial downward adjustments [86]. 12. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to short at high levels. The market price is stable, the production end is basically stable, and the downstream demand is rigid [88][89][91]. 13. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has a slight change [93][94][95].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the electricity industry, focusing on thermal power and hydropower sectors, with specific attention to the long-term electricity price agreements for 2026 [1][2][4]. Key Points on Thermal Power - **Performance Expectations**: Thermal power performance in 2026 is expected to exceed pessimistic forecasts due to lower-than-expected reductions in long-term electricity prices (approximately 4 cents per kilowatt-hour) and increased capacity compensation, leading to a net reduction of 2-3.5 cents [1][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The introduction of a spot market and limited space for coal price increases are favorable for thermal power profitability. The actual settlement prices are anticipated to be higher than simple calculations due to time-based pricing and strategic adjustments in competition [2][6]. - **Regional Insights**: Areas like Henan and Hebei are expected to experience lower price reductions due to limited new thermal competition and a higher proportion of renewable energy installations [1][4]. - **Coal Consumption Trends**: A projected 5% growth in electricity demand is expected in 2026, but coal consumption may decline by 2-3% due to the impact of new wind and solar installations [7]. - **Coal Price Forecast**: The price of 5,500 kcal coal is expected to have limited upward movement, with a potential decrease of around 20 yuan, leading to a modest decline in thermal power company profits, estimated at about 10% for national companies [8]. - **Market Sentiment**: Current market concerns regarding thermal power stock performance are deemed excessive, as many companies maintain a dividend yield of over 4%, with some regions achieving yields of 5-6% [9]. Key Points on Hydropower - **Business Model Strength**: The hydropower sector is characterized by a simple and effective business model, with expectations for positive year-on-year growth in 2026 despite a weaker performance in 2025 [3]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Large hydropower companies are recommended for investment, particularly as the sector is expected to enter a new growth cycle [3][12]. - **Market Competition**: The impact of market-driven price declines on hydropower competition is limited, with only about 30% of water resources subject to market transactions. The capacity price is expected to increase by 20% from 2025 to 2026, mitigating some downward pressure on prices [10]. Additional Insights - **Long-term Investment Timing**: The current period is viewed as an opportune time for long-term investors to consider hydropower assets, especially given the recent low expectations and potential for recovery in large hydropower companies [11][12]. - **Dividend Potential**: There is significant room for increasing dividend payouts among thermal power companies, which could lead to substantial stock price appreciation similar to past performance trends [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the expected performance and strategic considerations for both thermal and hydropower sectors in 2026.

Report Overview - Report Date: January 7, 2026 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Peanuts - Researcher: Chen Bo [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term peanut futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Technical analysis shows that the price has rebounded for two consecutive days after hitting a recent low, with increased trading volume, indicating a warming of short - term market sentiment. Fundamentally, the insufficient supply in the production area supports the price, but the weak demand for peanut oil limits the upside potential [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the opening price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange peanut futures main contract (PK.CZC) was 8066 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8124 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8038 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8072 yuan/ton, a 1.0% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 144,402 lots, the turnover was 5.83125 billion yuan, and the open interest was 164,702 lots. The price showed a volatile upward trend, and the trading volume and turnover increased compared to the recent average, indicating enhanced market trading activity [2] 3.2 Spot Market - From January to June 2025, the basis showed a volatile downward trend, gradually falling from 1582 yuan to around 1000 yuan, reflecting a narrowing of the price difference between futures and spot. The long - term positive basis indicates that the peanut futures market has been in a state of spot premium, reflecting the market's expectation of tight peanut spot supply [4][5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - On January 7, the market price of peanut general rice was stable, with an average price of 8571 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The supply at the grass - roots level was still insufficient. The trading in the Henan production area was good, and the replenishment and procurement by merchants in the Northeast production area increased slightly. Most transactions were negotiated. The mainstream price of the peanut oil market was 14,320 yuan/ton, the peak demand season was less than expected, the downstream trading atmosphere was sluggish, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders was not high. The stalemate between limited supply in the peanut production area and cautious replenishment by traders is the main factor supporting the current price [6] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - In the past 20 trading days, the peanut futures price showed a range - bound trend, mainly fluctuating in the range of 7920 - 8120 yuan/ton. After hitting a stage low of 7938 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, the price rebounded for two consecutive days, rising 1.56% on January 6 and 1.0% on January 7, forming a short - term rebound trend. The current price has broken through the upper limit of the 20 - day trading range, showing signs of stabilization and recovery on the technical side. The 20 - day high of 8124 yuan/ton forms a short - term resistance level, and around 8000 yuan/ton below forms the main support [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term shock is on the strong side [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply-demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro expectations and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong operation, but the upward space may be limited. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main contract of soda ash opened high and moved low, showing a weak intraday shock. The 120-minute Bollinger Bands continued to have three tracks upward, indicating a short-term shock on the strong side. The upper pressure was focused on the 20 and 60 moving averages on the weekly line, and the support continued to focus on the 40 moving average on the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 643,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 1,967 lots. The intraday high was 1,242, the low was 1,204, and the closing price was 1,228, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (1.6% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It was stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments, and the maintenance expectations were few. The industrial supply hovered at a high level. The downstream purchasing sentiment was average, the demand was neither strong nor weak, and most of them maintained low-price on-demand replenishment and were resistant to high prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250, and the basis was 22 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56,500 tons (8.11% increase). Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, compared with 79.96% last week, a month-on-month increase of 4.43%. Among them, the ammonia-soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month-on-month increase of 11.20%; the combined process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month-on-month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 88.15%, a month-on-month increase of 2.24% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons compared with Monday (4.26% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 40,800 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons (11.67% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10,190 tons (6.93% increase) [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month-on-month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double tons) of the combined process was -40 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia-soda process was -57.85 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material ore salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, resulting in an increase in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current daily output of soda ash has reached 110,300 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.39%. Coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Before the New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down for cold repair, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing the inventory. However, there is certain short-term support under continuous losses and positive macro sentiment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of the month. The 02 contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1750 - 1850 points under relatively pessimistic estimates, and its valuation support is expected to be in this range. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards, but the situation of contracts in June and August remains uncertain. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [5][6][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 8, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,139.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,089.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1706.00, 1163.30, 1415.00, 1527.40, 1105.20, and 1343.00 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping companies vary. For example, in the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk's price in the fourth week of January was 1685/2710; HPL's quotes in the first and second half - months of January and the first half - month of February were 1835/3035. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes and changes [1][2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. In terms of delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, and in February it was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 279,000 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in January, 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings in February, and 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, which will put pressure on the far - month contract prices [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. The demand situation is affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding after previous adjustments and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term. Considering the current pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle with weak demand and reduced supply - side压榨量, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 6, 2026, the opening price of the main soybean oil futures contract (Y.DCE) on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7,868.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,928.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,866.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,912.0 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 263,014 lots, the trading value was 20.77839 billion yuan, and the latest open interest was 621,847 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 6, 2026, the basis of the main soybean oil futures contract was 518.0 yuan/ton. With the futures closing price at 7,912.0 yuan/ton, the spot price was higher than the futures price, showing a pattern of strong spot and weak futures [5] 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: Affected by the international market, the soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose on January 5, providing some support for domestic soybean oil futures. On January 6, the mainstream reference price of domestic first - grade soybean oil was 8,420 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan increase from the previous working day, with a 0.48% increase. On that day, the oil mill operating rate was about 52.29%. Last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 1.88 million tons, a 220,000 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 100,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. Since January 1, 2026, the pilot policy of verified deduction of input VAT on agricultural products in the soybean oil processing industry has been stopped [6] - **技术分析**: In the past month, the soybean oil futures price showed a pattern of volatile decline followed by a stable rebound. The price was around 8,230 yuan/ton at the beginning of December, then declined to a low of 7,712 yuan/ton on December 19, and gradually stabilized and rebounded. The closing price on January 6 was 7,912 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 2.6% from the previous low, indicating short - term price stabilization [7] 3.4行情展望 - **技术面预期**: After the previous adjustment, the soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term [10] - **基本面展望**: The current market is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle, but the demand is weak and the spot market trading is light. The reduction in the supply - side压榨量 provides some support for prices. Overall, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment for aluminum has cooled, the supply surplus of alumina remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 23,725 yuan, down 635 yuan from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 3,088 dollars, up 102 dollars from a week ago. The trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased. The LME canceled warrant ratio was 10.66%, down 0.36% from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,863 yuan, down 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,585 yuan, down 450 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest increased [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 718,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 90,200 tons, up 2,300 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 499,800 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,693 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 334 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The three - place inventory totaled 44,082 tons, down 257 tons from the previous trading day [1] Other Information - 1000 enterprises are suing the US government, demanding the refund of 133 billion dollars in tariffs, and the US Supreme Court may make a final decision this week, which has a profound impact on global supply chains and trade policies [3] - The annual re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) starts after the market on January 8th and lasts until the 14th. TD Securities predicts that 7.7 billion dollars of silver sell - off will flood the market in the next two weeks, which may cause a significant price correction. Aluminum is among the commodities under relatively large re - balancing selling pressure [3]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Short-term shock is strong [1] - **Core View**: Recently, glass production lines have successively undergone cold repairs, and the short-term supply contraction has improved the phased supply-demand structure. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short-term price may maintain a strong shock. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and the cold repair of production lines [4] Market Review - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened low and moved high, strengthening during the day. The three tracks of the 120-minute Bollinger Bands opened upwards, indicating a short-term continuation of the strong shock signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous high, and the support was near today's low. The trading volume decreased by 248,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 67,492 lots compared to yesterday. The intraday high was 1171, the low was 1136, and the closing price was 1163, up 30 yuan/ton (2.65%) from yesterday's settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The overall production and sales were good. Except for the stable prices in the northwest region, enterprises in other regions raised prices. In North China, the market transaction was good, and manufacturers' psychology of holding prices gradually emerged. In East China, downstream demand replenishment was the main factor, and prices were temporarily stable. In Central China, the transaction was okay, and individual manufacturers in Hubei raised prices. In South China, downstream procurement was appropriate, and the center of gravity moved up [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was -143 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a decrease of 1.32% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year. The average industry start-up rate was 71.96%, a decrease of 1.08% month-on-month; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a decrease of 1.03% month-on-month. The design capacity of the first line in Chenzhou of Hunan Qibin Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. was 1000 tons/day, and it was expected to be water-cooled and repaired today. The design capacity of Yunnan Diankai Energy-saving Technology Co., Ltd. was 520 tons/day, and it stopped feeding last night, and the output is expected to further shrink [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million weight boxes month-on-month, a decrease of 2.37% month-on-month and an increase of 27.04% year-on-year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period. At present, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend. Most regions are driven by sales policies, the market sentiment has improved, and the production capacity has been reduced, which has boosted the transfer of enterprise inventory to the middle and lower reaches, and there is still a downward expectation in the future [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep-processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and 16.1% year-on-year. At present, engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10-15 days. Home improvement and other types are still mainly low-value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - Supply-side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long-term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke as fuel are also in a loss state, accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity. Six glass production lines were water-cooled and repaired before New Year's Day, and three more production lines were cold-repaired this week, further shrinking the supply. However, real estate development investment and capital availability both continued to decline year-on-year, and completion and new construction were weak, with no improvement in real estate demand [4]