Q1 来水不佳，湖北现货即将转正 湖北能源(000883) 2024 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 | [table_Authors] 吴杰(分析师) | 胡鸿程(研究助理) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 5.61 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880525040109 | S0880125042225 | | | 本报告导读： 公司 24 年和 25Q1 业绩分别受到减值和来水不佳影响，湖北现货市场推进，看好公 司电源长期价值释放。 投资要点： 风险提示。来水不及预期、电价下行、新能源盈利性下滑。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 18,669 | 20,031 | 20,045 | 21,655 | 21,980 | | (+/-)% | -9.3% | 7.3% | 0.1% ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/13 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 870.50 | -19.00↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1447.00 | -24.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 485608.00 | +30759.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 54407.00 | +1128.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） ...

【补货意愿增强，价格有所反弹】 【市场动态】 1、期货市场情绪积极，带动午后内地新单成交顺畅，部分企业停售挺价， 推动现货价格普涨。西北主产区企业库存低位，下游及贸易商低价补货意愿 增强，企业竞拍成交价走高。港口近端少量单边逢高出货，刚需递盘。 2、品种总持仓963314手，减少2007手。仓单8380张，无变化。 【基本面分析】 1、随着大秦线检修影响减弱，煤炭价格下跌略有加速，市场供需宽松格局 仍将延续，但一些积极因素的影响也在逐步增强，例如关税冲击后新的刺激 政策加速落地预期强烈，高温天气的降水偏少使夏季用肥需求预期较好，进 口煤持续收缩等，故煤炭价格虽缺乏上行动力，但下行空间也较为有限。 2、近期甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能产出量，导致产 能利用率上涨，但未来计划检修及减产涉及产能多于计划恢复涉及产能，产 量或减少。宁夏宝丰二期、中煤榆林烯烃装置停车检修，山东恒通烯烃装置 低负荷分段检修，行业开工整体走低，近期烯烃检修增多，行业开工维持同 比低位；传统需求方面，二甲醚、氯化物有装置短停，后续除二甲醚外，甲 醛、醋酸、氯化物负荷预期提升。除广东集中到港导致累库外，其他沿海地 区均因消耗稳 ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 铝：偏弱震荡 氧化铝：低位整理 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 19910 | 325 | 0 | 225 | -490 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 19935 | ー | - | l | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2470 | 52 | 79 | 102 | -162 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 186779 | 71128 | 59768 | -84367 | 61890 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 167645 | -14093 | -16224 | 7357 | -5013 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 15524 | 4458 | 348 | -13636 | 1336 | | | | LME注销仓单占比 | ...

| CNF到岸价: | 指标 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 2025/5/12 申万期货品种策略日报- 油脂油料 申银万国期货研究所 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） lijy@sywgqh.com.cn 国 内 期 货 市 场 豆油主力 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 豆粕主力 菜粕主力 花生主力 前日收盘价 7786 7914 9335 2920 2484 8844 涨跌 26 -60 119 5 19 26 涨跌幅(%) 0.34% -0.75% -3.15% 0.17% 0.77% 0.29% 价差 Y9-1 P9-1 OI9-1 Y-P09 OI-Y09 OI-P09 现值 54 26 149 -214 1456 1242 前值 62 26 143 -316 1465 1149 比价-价差 M9-1 RM9-1 M-RM09 M/RM09 Y/M09 Y-M09 现值 -49 217 367 1.14 2.66 4845 前值 -47 217 384 1.15 2.68 4912 国 际 期 货 市 场 BMD棕榈油/ 林吉特/吨 ...

2025年05月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，正套离场 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：正套离场，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡有支撑 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油区间震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：现货小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：偏强运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：关税忧虑缓解内盘估值承压 | 24 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，短期仍有回弹趋势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘高低硫价差暂时小幅回撤 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：中美关税缓和，近月短期偏强；10-12反套轻仓持有 | 30 | | 短纤：短期震荡市， ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 锰硅：矿端报价扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 硅铁：电费成本扰动，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 总体来看，锰硅近期供需格局边际收紧，市价较低，现货成交较弱，期货仓单提货明显；硅铁成本 重心下移，后续应继续关注合金厂的生产节奏变动和钢厂生产节奏的博弈，跟踪需求端高炉铁水产量的 节奏变动对双硅的需求支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,482 元/吨，周环比变化-108 元/吨，成交 440,882 手，持仓 82,029 手，持仓环比变化-39,724 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡，收于 5,758 元/吨，周环比变化 6 元/吨，成交 21326 手，持仓 42605 手，持仓环比变化-14,562 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 10 ...

现货市场建设全面提速，火电发电量增速环比改善 [Table_Industry] —电力行业 3 月月报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 9 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业Table月报_ReportType] 电电力行业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：011-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：011-83326723 邮 箱： lichunchi@cindasc.com 化工行业： 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：1100 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures may rebound to 3900 - 4000 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures may stop falling and rebound around 7800 yuan. US soybean oil demand may be poor, and domestic soybean arrivals will increase, making factory soybean oil supply shift from tight to loose, with a long - term bearish outlook [1]. Meal - US soybeans are in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation currently. Brazilian supply pressure continues, and domestic soybean arrivals are abundant. Domestic supply is expected to recover, and attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [2]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of second - round fattening and slaughter [5][6]. Corn - Market supply is tight, and spot prices are strong. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and port inventories need to be digested. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, they may be under pressure [8]. Sugar - Supply concerns are alleviated. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern after the festival [12]. Cotton - In the short - term, macro factors dominate the market, and there may be large fluctuations. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and domestic cotton prices may show a shock trend [13]. Eggs - In May, demand may support egg prices to remain high and stable. In June, the contradiction of supply exceeding demand may peak, dragging down egg prices. 06 and 07 contracts' previous high - position short orders can be closed at low prices [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: Soybean oil spot and futures prices are stable, palm oil spot and futures prices decline slightly, and rapeseed oil spot and futures prices rise slightly. There are also changes in various spreads [1]. - **Inventory**: Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories change, and palm oil inventory remains the same [1]. Meal - **Prices**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices have minor changes, and soybean prices also show different trends. There are changes in various spreads and oil - meal ratios [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans change to different extents [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline slightly, and the position of the main contract increases [5]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or have minor changes, and various spot indicators also show different trends [5]. Corn - **Corn**: Futures prices decline slightly, spot prices are stable, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. - **Corn Starch**: Futures prices decline, spot prices rise, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, and ICE raw sugar prices rise. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [12]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions decline, and import sugar prices also change. There are changes in production, sales, and inventories [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts are stable or have minor changes, and ICE US cotton prices decline. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [13]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions have minor changes, and various indicators such as spreads and import prices change [13]. Eggs - **Prices**: Futures prices of different contracts have minor changes, and spot prices in different regions decline slightly. There are changes in basis, spreads, and other prices [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Prices of egg - laying chicken seedlings, culled chickens, and other related indicators change [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration emphasizes the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction in China, aiming for full coverage by 2025, which is expected to enhance the flexibility of coal power generation and improve resource allocation in peak regulation and frequency modulation [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index (932037) increased by 0.15%, with notable gains from Huadian Heavy Industries (2.07%), Dingsheng Technology (1.77%), and Guodian NARI Technology (1.42%) [3]. - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) rose by 0.38%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.05 yuan [3]. Group 2: ETF Growth and Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF has seen a significant growth of 515.49 million yuan in scale over the past six months, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count increased by 9 million shares in the same period, also placing it in the top third of comparable funds [4]. - As of May 7, 2025, the ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 10.03% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 84.32% [4]. Group 3: Fee Structure and Valuation - The management fee for the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [5]. - The index tracked by the ETF is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.4, below 98.08% of the time over the past year, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [5]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Yangtze Power (10.48%), Guodian NARI Technology (7.31%), and China Nuclear Power (6.30%), collectively accounting for 51.18% of the index [5].