Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that social financing (社融) has significantly exceeded expectations, with the loan balance year-on-year growth rate rebounding after two years, primarily supported by fiscal demand [2][11] - In March, new social financing reached 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.06 trillion yuan year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate rising from 8.2% to 8.4%, surpassing market expectations [2][4] - The net financing of government bonds in March reached 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating that rapid government bond issuance may lead to quicker commencement of key investment projects this year [2][4] Group 2 - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7.0%, while M1 growth rate increased from 0.1% in February to 1.6% in March, indicating relatively ample liquidity [7][11] - In March, short-term loans for enterprises increased by 460 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling 1.44 trillion yuan, while corporate loan rates remained unchanged at 3.30% [7][8] - The actual financing scale for enterprises in March remained roughly the same as last year, with net financing for the enterprise sector at 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating stability in overall financing demand [7][8] Group 3 - Fiscal deposits remain high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.9% in March, suggesting significant potential for fiscal support in the near term [11][13] - The central bank's decision to release favorable data on a Sunday is seen as a strategy to stabilize market confidence ahead of the Monday opening [13][14] - The central bank's balance sheet relative to GDP is at a historically low level, providing potential for expansion, which could help lower risk premiums in uncertain economic conditions [13][14]

Macro Economic Overview - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with March CPI data indicating improvement, while manufacturing remains sluggish with a PPI decline of -2.5% [3] - Attention is on the upcoming April PMI data, which if above the threshold, could signal a positive outlook for industrial stocks [3] - The central bank is actively engaging in reverse repos, hinting at potential interest rate cuts, although caution is advised due to the Federal Reserve's stance [3] Market Sentiment - Recent trading volumes have decreased significantly, with the Shanghai market seeing daily transactions below 500 billion and Shenzhen around 300 billion [4] - Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD suggest a bearish trend, with a critical support level at 3200 points [4] Investment Opportunities - Three key sectors are highlighted for investment: - Technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and new energy, with significant investments from companies like ByteDance [4] - Consumer sector, featuring established brands like Moutai and emerging trends in prepared foods, with positive indicators from recent box office data [5] - Policy-driven opportunities, including state-owned enterprise reforms and increased freight volumes from the China-Europe Railway Express [5] Operational Strategy - Recommended investment strategy includes maintaining a 50% position, gradually accumulating shares below 3200 points, and considering increasing positions if the market stabilizes above 3300 points [5]

Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]

作者： 陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 一方面，当前环境下人民币贬值"弊大于利"。 面对高额关税，人民币贬值对冲外贸的效果微乎其微，反而可能加剧资金外流的风险。从 近年经验来看， 7.35 （美元兑人民币）或是需要"坚守"的底线。 另一方面，人民币贬值也与我国"捍卫多边主义"的基调不符。 近年来，其他主要亚洲货币基本"锚定"人民币汇率波动。若人民币"失 守"，可能引起其他经济体的"竞争性"贬值，对稳定市场、构建反制同盟等均有不利影响。 其次，降准或快于降息，辅之于结构性货币政策利率调降。 为什么降准优先于降息？ 从 2023 年以来的历次操作来看，降准开始更多承载稳定市场的功能。尤其在 2024 年 12 月政治局会议上，首次 将"稳住楼市股市"作为经济工作的重点任务。 考虑到关税已落地、二季度政府债供给压力上行等，预计降准将先行落地以对冲市场下 跌。 如我们上篇报告《 关税风暴：政策对冲的经济账 》所述，随着关税风险的兑现， 当前市场的核心矛盾已转化为经济下行和政策对冲的角 力。 打铁还需自身硬，清明假期最后一天官媒的发声，表明决策层已经就应对冲击做好了各种预案， 我们预计 4 月底的政治局会议将给 增量的储备政策定 ...

二季度债市或仍需保持谨慎，30年国债指数ETF(511130)近5个交易日合计"吸 金"超5.5亿元 超额收益方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF成立以来超越基准年化收益为0.14%。 截至2025年3月26日 11:06，30年国债指数ETF(511130)多空胶着，最新报价108.39元，盘中成交额已达10.28亿元，换手率16.63%。 规模方面，30年国债指数ETF最新规模达61.89亿元，创近1年新高。 资金流入方面，30年国债指数ETF近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"5.51亿元，日均净流入达1.10亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债指数ETF本月以来融资净买额达648.01万元，最新融资余额达1.80亿元。 绝对收益方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月 数比为8/3，上涨月份平均收益率为1.90%，月盈利百分比为72.73%，月盈利概率为72.89%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。 回撤方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tight balance of funds reflects several underlying issues, including a long-term negative growth rate in the loan-to-deposit ratio and significant demand from commercial banks for medium to long-term liabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Funding Tightness - The funding rates have been high since the end of the holiday until the end of February, with rates exceeding the upper limit of the overnight reverse repurchase rate corridor [2]. - There is a persistent negative growth rate in the loan-to-deposit balance, with increasing differentiation in the deposit-raising capabilities of large and small banks [2]. - The issuance rates of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) for state-owned banks and city commercial banks have risen, leading to renewal pressures due to the narrowing interest rate spread [2]. Group 2: Central Bank's Monetary Policy - The central bank's recent "loose statement" and "steady operation" indicate a long-term "moderately loose" state, while short-term monetary tool operations require consideration of various factors [3]. - The central bank aims to maintain the "transmission efficiency" of monetary policy, with liquidity management potentially adjusting the curve shape [3]. - The central bank's medium to long-term liquidity provision is increasingly leaning towards buyout reverse repos, with a trend of shortening the duration of monetary tools [3]. Group 3: March Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is expected to narrow significantly compared to January and February, with government debt net financing pressure easing [4]. - City commercial banks and joint-stock banks face the highest renewal pressure for certificates of deposit in the first quarter, which may keep issuance rates elevated [4]. - The central bank's liquidity provision strategy may lead to a structural "long money" gap, with a focus on the potential for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut between the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter [5].

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the need for proactive policies to address the increasingly complex external environment, focusing on boosting demand, enhancing technological innovation, and improving consumption mechanisms [3][6]. Policy Measures - Policies should be implemented early and decisively to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on timely and sufficient responses [3][6]. - The report highlights the importance of accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, with a strong emphasis on emerging and future industries as key to global competition [3][6][7]. Consumption and Demand - Consumption is identified as a critical area for policy support, with mechanisms being developed to enhance consumer capacity, including labor wage growth and diversified service offerings in health, elderly care, and childcare [6][9]. - The report indicates that consumption will be strategically promoted in response to economic pressures [6]. Technological Development - The focus on "new quality productivity" is increasing, with an emphasis on accelerating technological advancements in areas such as artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy [7][8]. - The "Science and Education Prosperity" strategy is highlighted as essential for building a supportive ecosystem for education, research, and talent development [7]. Fiscal Policy - The government plans to enter a new phase with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4%, breaking historical records and indicating a significant increase in fiscal commitment [9]. - New special bond issuance is expected to exceed 4 trillion yuan, with specific allocations for debt repayment and land reserve purposes [9]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, with potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut as a timely response to external uncertainties [8][9].

很多时候，我们都在是不断地给自己的交易系统在做加法，在失败中反思或总结出一个投资规律，就去执行，然后又是失败，就再总结，再往系统 里加。但实际上大道至简，往往规则太多，会让阻碍你的执行，因为很多信号或规则之间是相互矛盾的。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241227— 每逢周五传降准（+工业企业利润数据偏弱+债基继续较大规模净申购+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 今天看到：华尔街今年最火的交易不是AI和比特币，而是阿根廷。阿根廷MERV指数年初至今涨超175%，有望在2024年成为全球表现最好的股市。经汇 率差异调整后，以美元计仍上涨了100%以上。华尔街资金是在押注总统米莱能够彻底改变长期陷入困境的经济。不知我们的资金疯狂涌入A债是在押注 什么？大抵是愈发强大的主权信用吧。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1078亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1016亿元逆回购到期。净投放62亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，跨年资金偏贵，DR007加权利率上行20BP至1.8%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 27) | ...

【笔记20241224— 3万亿的特别国 债 （-路透称"明年特别国债规模3万亿"-股市上涨+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 近期30Y-10Y国债利差持续走阔，可能的原因：一是随着30Y绝对水平不断降低，保险配置动力明显减弱；二是央妈反复喊话后，省联社可能加强了对农 商行投资超长债的指导；三是924之后权益类资金对冲需求大幅下降。 今日小作文乱飞，内容真正超预期的并不多，但市场反应较大，可能是在"预期你的预期"： 1、明天是MLF续作日，如果降准了，可能会有止盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ 2、下周就跨年了，基金年末冲量后年初可能有赎回，叠加年初银行可能止盈兑现浮盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ -------------------------- 央行今日公开市场开展641亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日3554亿元逆回购到期。净回笼2913亿元。 上午资金面宽松，午后略有收敛，尾盘再度转松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...