长江证券资深投资顾问刘浪表示，昨天机器人概念股午后再度爆发。近期机器人产业再度迎来密集催 化，政策面上，26日，工业和信息化部人形机器人与具身智能标准化技术委员会成立，将主要承担人形 机器人与具身智能基础共性、关键技术、部组件、整机与系统、应用、安全等领域行业标准制修订工 作。另外，特斯拉审厂行程开启，是OptimusV3人形机器人量产前的关键验证环节。研究机构认为，特 斯拉擎天柱跑步视频、新工艺引起关注等催化，表明Optimus3代机器人定型及量产正加速推进，预期更 加理性且一致；美国转向支持机器人技术，我国产业支持和补贴政策有望出台，在2026年某个时间段形 成中美政策共振。展望2026年，人形机器人量产箭在弦上，后续催化密集，板块迎来布局窗口期。 行情上，昨天市场延续震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一，量能连续三日维持在2万亿之上。指数上，沪指 日线10连阳，日线级别KDJ的钝化风险已经得以化解，后续关注下方10日均线附近支撑力度。行业板块 上，前期核心热点商业航天昨天午后分歧加剧，但在资金深度介入的背景下，后续大概率会经历震荡与 反复，与此同时，市场热点集中在机器人，后续能否接过商业航天短线领涨大旗便是关注的 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 was dominated by AI as a central theme in China's technology sector, with high valuations in the sector driven by both policy and demand, particularly in the computing power segment [2][3] - The computing power industry experienced significant growth, with a projected increase in intelligent computing power scale exceeding 40% in 2025, supported by advancements in large model technology and capital expenditure [3] Industry Performance - The A-share market saw several companies in the computing power sector achieve remarkable performance, with NewEase leading the industry with over 420% growth, and Cambrian Technologies surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the "stock king" [2][7] - Industrial Fulian, a global leader in AI servers, reached a market capitalization of 1.23 trillion yuan, ranking ninth in the A-share market [2][7] Key Trends and Predictions - Analysts predict two major trends for 2026: continued global demand for AI computing power driven by increased capital expenditure from overseas cloud providers, and the deepening of domestic substitution with companies like Cambrian and Haiguang Information expected to achieve large-scale commercial success [2][3] - The liquid cooling segment is transitioning from an optional to a necessary solution in data centers, driven by its advantages in energy efficiency and cooling performance [4][5] Company Highlights - Companies like NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang are recognized as "star enterprises" in the computing power sector, benefiting from high demand for optical modules and advanced technologies [4] - Cambrian Technologies reported a staggering revenue increase of 2386.38% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting the successful application of domestic AI chips [10] - Industrial Fulian's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 603.93 billion yuan, a 38.4% increase year-on-year, with GPU AI servers becoming a core growth driver [11] Market Dynamics - The A-share market's trading volume reached a historic high of 400 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting increased market activity and investor enthusiasm [7][8] - Public funds have shifted from tactical to strategic holdings in technology assets, with 24 out of the top 50 holdings in public funds being in the information technology sector [8][9] Future Outlook - The AI application sector is expected to accelerate commercialization in 2026, with new hardware forms like AI glasses anticipated to enter the market [12] - The performance of the large model sector in 2026 will depend on the ability of leading companies to maintain high growth in products and revenue, as well as the industry's transition from technology demonstration to real demand and payment [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 saw significant growth across various sectors, with the top ten sectors experiencing substantial annual increases driven by factors such as AI demand, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 1: Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors in 2025 included: - Optical Communication Modules with a growth of 156.02% - F5G Concept with a growth of 128.33% - CPO Concept with a growth of 124.50% - Space Station Concept with a growth of 115.95% - PCB with a growth of 112.11% - Foxconn with a growth of 111.69% - Nvidia Concept with a growth of 104.45% - Gold Concept with a growth of 97.35% - Robotics with a growth of 86.54% - New Industrialization with a growth of 83.86% [1][2] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The surge in Optical Communication Modules and CPO Concept was primarily driven by: - Explosive demand for AI computing power - Accelerated technological iterations - Domestic substitution and policy funding support [1] - The growth in PCB, Foxconn, and Nvidia Concept was attributed to: - Explosive growth in AI computing demand - Increased production and sales of high-end products due to AI servers - Resonance with demand from new energy vehicles and consumer electronics, leading to record-high industry performance [1] - The significant rise in the Gold Concept was driven by: - The onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which lowered real interest rates and weakened the dollar - Escalating global geopolitical conflicts and ongoing central bank gold purchases, alongside a trend towards de-dollarization, creating a demand for safe-haven assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing power sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by government initiatives and increasing demand for domestic AI chips, particularly the H200 chip, which is set to be delivered to Chinese customers soon [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the last trading day of 2025, AI computing stocks saw a strong afternoon rally, with the cloud computing ETF (159890) rising over 1% and achieving a six-day winning streak [1]. - Notable stock performances included a rise of 11.46% for Yidian Tianxia, over 8% for Hand Information, and more than 4% for companies like Zhongke Xingtai and Wanxing Technology [1]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Developments - A key government official announced the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, which aims to create extensive application scenarios for AI computing power chips, leading to rapid growth in demand and innovation within the sector [3]. - The conditional opening of the H200 chip to China is seen as a positive development, with major tech companies like Alibaba and ByteDance planning significant purchases to enhance their AI capabilities [4]. Group 3: Domestic Chip Strategy - Domestic companies are adopting varied strategies in response to the H200 chip's availability, with Alibaba and ByteDance pursuing large-scale purchases, while Baidu focuses on self-developed Kunlun AI chips to reduce reliance on external suppliers [4]. - Tencent is exploring indirect methods to acquire advanced computing power, aiming to secure over $1.2 billion in usage rights for the latest B200/B300 chips [4]. Group 4: Growth Projections - According to IDC and Inspur, China's intelligent computing power is projected to reach 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.2% from 2023 to 2028 [6]. - The general computing power in China is expected to grow to 85.8 EFLOPS by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.8% during the same period [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The current landscape of the AI computing market presents numerous opportunities for investment, with a focus on domestic chip development and technological innovation [5][6]. - The cloud computing ETF (159890) tracks a diverse range of companies involved in AI infrastructure and applications, indicating a comprehensive approach to the AI computing era [6].

Core Viewpoint - Wallen Technology, the first GPU stock in Hong Kong, has seen strong subscription response with an oversubscription of 2363 times during its offering period [1] Group 1: IPO Details - Wallen Technology (stock code: 06082.HK) set its H-share issuance price at HKD 19.60 per share, raising a total of HKD 48.55 billion, marking the largest IPO since the implementation of Chapter 18C of Hong Kong's listing rules [1] - The company is expected to begin trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 2, 2026, making it the first new stock listed in Hong Kong for the new year [1] - CICC, Ping An Securities (Hong Kong), and Bank of China International are serving as joint sponsors for the IPO [1] Group 2: Market Position and Product Pipeline - As the first GPU stock in Hong Kong, Wallen Technology fills a gap in the AI computing hardware sector within the Hong Kong market [1] - As of December 15, Wallen Technology has approximately RMB 1.241 billion in orders, indicating a clear growth trajectory for future performance [1] - The BR166 product is expected to achieve commercialization in the second half of 2025, while the BR20X series chips are planned for commercialization in 2026, with further new generation products like BR30X in the pipeline, showcasing the company's capability for continuous iteration and growth [1]

供应端：主要矿区扰动边际缓解，全球供应迎来修复窗口 2026年全球锡矿供应紧张局面有望结构性缓和。缅甸佤邦复产进程虽有波折但趋势明确，进口量预期回 升；印尼RKAB审批推进，合规产能释放加快；刚果（金）Bisie矿等核心项目的供应稳定性提升。随着 原料约束缓解，国内冶炼端开工率预计稳步回升，精锡产量有望实现同比小幅增长，全球供应弹性有所 恢复。 期货市场：宏观情绪回暖有色金属板块整体走强，隔夜伦锡收涨5.46%；最新收盘报42195，比前一交 易日上涨2185美元，涨幅为5.46%，成交量为840手，持仓量23981万增加96手；国内方面，夜盘沪期锡 高位运行，尾盘大幅收涨。主力合约沪锡2602收报329210元/吨，涨4830，涨幅报1.49%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月30日伦锡库存量5330吨，较前一交易日库存量增加185吨。 长江锡业网讯：今日沪锡期货全线高开，主力月2602合约开盘报327910涨3530，9：15分沪锡主力2602 合约报327940涨3560；沪期锡开盘高开高走，盘面维持高位运行；宏观面，锡，这个常被忽视的工业金 属，正站在宏观与产业共振的"风口"。美联储"降息方向已定，节 ...

记者丨彭新 编辑丨骆一帆 国产DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）龙头长鑫科技IPO获受理。上海证券交易所网站于2025年12月30日披露，长鑫科技集团股份有限公司（下称"长鑫科 技"）科创板IPO上市申请已经获得受理，将发行不超过106.22亿新股，拟募集资金295亿元，保荐机构为中金公司和中信建投证券，意味着这家中国最大的 DRAM设计制造企业距离上市走出关键一步。 值得注意的是，长鑫科技IPO是科创板首单获受理的"预先审阅"项目。在招股书获受理的同日，上交所同步披露了两轮预先审阅问询与回复，显示监管层已 先后于2025年11月5日及11月19日发出问询。 2025年6月18日，证监会发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长层增强制度包容性适应性的意见》，首次明确提出试点IPO预先审阅机制。该制度可保护信息与 技术安全，满足关键核心技术攻关企业诉求，减少上市"曝光"时间，避免过早披露敏感信息引发经营与竞争风险 。正式申报时同步披露预审问询回复，压 缩审核周期，提高申报文件质量。 (安徽省合肥市经济技术开发区空港工业园兴业大道 388 号) 首次公开发行股票并在科创板上市 招股说明书 从募资规模来看，长鑫存储IPO有望成为 ...

Macro Insights - The US economy shows improved growth momentum with Q3 GDP growth exceeding expectations and resilient consumer spending in December [2] - Financial conditions in the US have loosened further in December, driven by a weaker dollar and rising US stock markets [2] - Key upcoming indicators include December non-farm payrolls on January 9, December CPI on January 13, and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [2] Strategy: Fund Flow Insights - A-share market saw a rise with significant inflows from retail investors exceeding 30 billion yuan last week, marking the highest net inflow of financing funds since October [3] - The A500 ETF experienced a net inflow of nearly 15 billion yuan, continuing a five-week streak of inflows [3] - Despite concerns about potential outflows at the beginning of the year, institutional hedging operations may help control selling pressure [3] Policy Analysis: "Old for New" Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale "old for new" policy for 2026, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support this initiative [4] - The estimated subsidy scale for the "old for new" policy in 2026 is approximately 250 billion yuan, compared to a total of 300 billion yuan in 2025 [4] - The policy aims to optimize the categories of supported products, focusing on six categories of home appliances instead of twelve [4] Real Estate Sector: Tax Policy Changes - New tax regulations effective January 1, 2026, will reduce the capital gains tax rate on housing transactions from 5% to 3% for properties held for less than two years, aiming to stimulate the second-hand housing market [5] - This tax reform reflects the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and is expected to enhance the efficiency of second-hand housing transactions [5] Automotive Sector: Subsidy Adjustments - The 2026 "old for new" policy will adjust subsidies to be based on a percentage of vehicle prices, which is expected to stabilize consumer purchasing expectations [6] - The demand for mid-to-high-end vehicles is anticipated to remain less affected by these subsidy changes, with a potential recovery in the passenger car market in 2026 [6] Financial Sector: Small Loan Company Regulations - Recent guidelines from the central bank and financial regulators will significantly lower the pricing ceiling for small loan companies, potentially leading to accelerated industry consolidation [7] - The new regulations require small loan companies to stop issuing loans with comprehensive financing costs exceeding 24% immediately and gradually reduce loan pricing to within four times the one-year LPR by the end of 2027 [7] Consumer Electronics: Policy Impact - The "old for new" policy is expected to provide strong support for the domestic sales strategies of home appliance companies in 2026, with an emphasis on high-efficiency products [8] - The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan has already been allocated, which is likely to bolster short-term sales resilience in the home appliance sector [8] Building Materials: Market Dynamics - The announcement of new projects related to quartz fiber electronic cloth has increased among listed companies, indicating a growing supply gap in the second-generation low dielectric electronic cloth market [9] - The competitive landscape is expected to remain stable in the short term, with leading companies benefiting from integrated production and customer advantages [9] Telecommunications: AI and Investment Trends - The telecommunications sector is expected to continue benefiting from AI computing trends, with investment opportunities emerging in both domestic and international computing supply chains [10] - The sector is anticipated to see a valuation uplift for leading companies as market liquidity improves [10] Public Fund Industry: Structural Changes - The public fund industry is undergoing a systemic transformation, shifting from scale-driven to long-term return-oriented strategies [11] - The total assets under management (AUM) in the industry are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, driven by the increasing popularity of passive investment products like ETFs [11]

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed a growth style leading the rally in December, with the ChiNext and North Star 50 indices rising over 5% [1] - The core drivers for the cyclical sector include economic recovery expectations and the revaluation of strategic resources, particularly benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and resource security themes [1][2] - The growth style focuses on technological self-reliance and new productivity, with capital concentrating on sectors like defense, communication, and AI-related high-end manufacturing [1][2] Group 2 - In January, the A-share market will enter a critical data verification period, influenced by policy effects, macro data, corporate performance, and liquidity changes, leading to potential increased volatility [2] - Key sectors such as defense, 6G, and satellite internet will require performance or order validation to digest previous gains, while commercial aerospace and AI computing sectors may still present active opportunities [2] - Strategic resource segments, especially rare metals like antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, are being revalued by the market due to their essential role in advanced technology breakthroughs [2] Group 3 - The company has excellent asset allocation in mineral resources, with a projected CAGR of 24% for copper production and 12% for gold production from 2020 to 2024, leading in growth among major copper/gold mining companies [6] - The company has successfully completed several significant acquisitions, contributing to production and profit, with ongoing projects expected to support sustainable growth in copper and gold businesses [6][8] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with production costs for copper and gold remaining competitive, positioning it within the top 20% globally [7] Group 4 - The company is benefiting from a stable coal production capacity of 48 million tons/year and has seen an increase in profitability due to low extraction costs and high long-term contracts [18] - The company is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity, with a projected increase to 121,000 tons/year by the end of 2025, supported by cost advantages from proximity to coal sources [19] - The company is actively promoting clean energy transition, with significant growth in renewable energy installations, aiming for 700,000 kW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [19] Group 5 - The company is a leading supplier of air conditioning refrigeration valves, with rapid growth in automotive and humanoid robot businesses, actively developing new growth curves [47] - The company achieved a revenue of 240.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16.86%, and a net profit of 32.42 billion yuan, up 40.85% [47] - The company is focusing on the development of robotic components, with plans for overseas mass production to strengthen its position in the global supply chain [49]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities highlights that the communication index has experienced significant volatility in 2025 due to concerns over AI computing power narratives and geopolitical impacts, but is expected to gradually return to pricing logic based on industry trends, with AI computing power becoming the main market theme [1] Investment Themes for 2026 - The company is optimistic about three main investment lines for 2026: 1) Embrace the AI computing power theme, focusing on investment opportunities in both domestic and international computing power supply chains [1] 2) The first secondary theme is new productive forces, with emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace, satellite internet, low-altitude economy, and quantum communication and computing expected to accelerate development due to the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] 3) The second secondary theme is core assets, where leading companies with long-term competitiveness and resilient performance, such as telecom operators, are anticipated to see valuation enhancement opportunities as market liquidity improves [1]