Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price increased by 1.8%, reaching $11,025 per ton, the highest level since October 30, driven by weak U.S. data raising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and market anticipation of supply shortages [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data released on Tuesday showed a cooling in retail sales and inflation, supporting the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in December [1] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market deficit of 51,000 tons in September, contrasting with a surplus of 41,000 tons in August [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a volatile trend with a slight increase in positions. There is significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and the weakening US dollar index is favorable for copper prices. There is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas inventories accumulating marginally and domestic inventories decreasing marginally. Technically, focus on the multi - empty game at the 87,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and today they stabilized in a volatile manner. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, and non - ferrous metals have generally stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum's rebound is relatively small, positions are continuously decreasing, and market attention is waning. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 21,500 yuan mark [8]. - **沪镍**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then maintained a high - level volatile trend, and today they were strongly volatile, once reaching the 118,000 yuan mark. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, leading to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Last week, nickel prices decreased significantly with increasing positions, and the spot premium continued to strengthen. In the short term, the market has warmed up, and short - covering has pushed up nickel prices. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 120,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, Codelco's benchmark price for the 2026 CIF long - term contract of electrolytic copper in China is set at $350 per ton, a rise of $261 per ton compared to $89 per ton in 2025 [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 26, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 117,300 and 122,400 yuan per ton, with an average price of 119,850 yuan per ton, a rise of 1,300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 4,400 and 4,900 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 4,650 yuan per ton, a rise of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between 0 and 500 yuan per ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

路透社周三报道称，日本央行上周刻意调整表述，强调日元持续疲软的通胀风险，暗示12月加息仍具可能性。此举源于首相高市早苗与日本央行行长植田和 男上周的关键会晤，似乎消除了新政府对加息的即时政治阻力。 日本内阁上周五批准了21.3万亿日元经济刺激计划，这是高市早苗首相上任后首个重大政策举措。该计划规模创新冠疫情以来之最，加剧了市场对新增政府 债务供应的担忧，也是近期日本收益率曲线陡峭化的关键因素。加之风险偏好回升，引发日元盘中抛售。 日本央行与美联储政策预期分化，料将限制美元/日元汇率的实质性上涨空间。 周三日元兑美元延续自一周半低点以来的日内回调跌势，在欧洲时段前半段刷新日低。市场对日本央行（BoJ）强化加息信号的初步反应转瞬即逝，因12月 或1月进一步收紧政策的可能性仍悬而未决。此外，高市早苗首相推行刺激政策的立场加剧了市场对日本财政状况恶化的担忧，叠加当前普遍的风险偏好情 绪，成为削弱日元避险属性的关键因素。 今日早间公布的数据显示，日本就业市场持续紧俏将推高薪资和服务业通胀，这印证了日本央行对加息的预期。当前市场普遍预期美联储12月将再度降息， 而日本央行则可能加息，这种政策分歧日益显著。后者令美元承压于 ...

文/冉学东 米兰主张通过一系列50个基点的降息，尽快将利率降至中性水平。他明确指出失业率攀升是货币政策过 紧的直接结果。 金融市场不在于实体经济到底如何，而是人们认为将会如何，就是预期会如何。预期决定市场走势。 美国最新公布的数据显示出，通胀预期还是比较混沌。美国9月批发商品价格环比上涨0.9%，其中60% 的涨幅归因于汽油成本上升。剔除食品和能源价格后，PPI同比上涨2.6%，为 2024 年7月以来最温和的 涨幅。 但是最新出台的美国9月零售销售表现不及预期，环比增幅收窄至0.2%，不仅低于0.4%的市场预期，也 较8月0.6%的增速明显放缓。更值得关注的是，美国9月零售销售（除汽车与汽油）环比增0.1%，远低 于预期增长0.3%的水平，显示消费者支出动能正在减弱。 尽管经通胀调整后的实际零售额已实现连续12个月同比增长，显示消费需求仍具韧性，但核心零售销售 （剔除汽车、汽油等类别）环比增0.1%，且未经季节调整的数据显示零售销售出现显著下滑，表明内 生消费动能正在减弱。 正是在以上数据基础上，11月25日，美联储理事米兰在接受媒体采访时表示，美国经济需要大幅降息， 现行货币政策"阻碍了经济发展"，并将失 ...

Market Overview - On November 26, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations after reaching resistance at 3879 points, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3864.18 points, down 0.15%[2][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to close at 12,907.83 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14%[7][8] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,974 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3][7] Sector Performance - Strong performers included communication equipment, electronic components, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, while shipbuilding, aerospace, gaming, and decoration sectors lagged[3][7] - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets declined, with the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors showing the highest gains[7][9] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 15.90 times and 47.37 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][13] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a continued rebalancing of market styles between cyclical and technology sectors[3][13] - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid chasing highs or selling lows, while closely monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes[3][13] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact the recovery process[4]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 946.720 | 0.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 12227 | +100.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 188,763.00 | +7594.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 69,820.00 | -10102.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 341,225.00 +41536.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,643,769.00 | +274389.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 90423 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 531,211 | -9361↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 941.16 | -0.38↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 12,150.00 | 33.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.56 | -0.60↓ 沪银主力合约基差 ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 11月26日，沪金主力暂报946.72元/克，涨幅达0.55%，今日沪金主力开盘价942.56元/克，截至目前最高 950.80元/克，最低939.04元/克。 【宏观消息】 全美商业经济协会(NABE)在年度预测调查中表示，美国经济增速明年将略加快，但就业增长仍将疲 弱，美联储将放缓进一步降息的步伐。这项于11月3日至11日进行的调查涵盖42位专业预测人士，结果 显示，经济预测中值为增长 2%，高于10月调查的1.8%，但与 6 月份预测的仅 1.3% 的增长率形成鲜明 对比。 【机构观点】 近期，市场对美联储降息的预期再度升温，推动贵金属价格短期偏强运行。美联储理事沃勒及旧金山联 储总裁戴利均释放鸽派信号，指出就业市场疲软可能支持12月会议进一步降息，叠加政府停摆导致的数 据处理滞后，使未来政策路径更依赖经济数据表现。与此同时，全美商业经济协会的调查显示，尽管明 年经济增速预期略有上调，但就业增长仍显乏力，且美联储可能放缓后续降息步伐。这些因素共同强化 了贵金属的避险和保值吸引力，金价在降息预期支撑下短期偏强。然而，贵金属市场整体仍处于震荡阶 段。一方面，经济数据的不确定性和美联储" ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong tech stocks has been puzzling, with companies like Alibaba and NIO reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results, yet their stock prices have declined [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Alibaba's revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reaching 247.8 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of 15% after excluding asset impacts [3]. - The adjusted EBITA for Alibaba was 9.1 billion yuan, a significant decline of 77.6% year-on-year, primarily due to increased investments in Taobao's flash sales, although it still exceeded some expectations due to strong performance in cloud and international businesses [3]. - The domestic retail business of Alibaba achieved a growth rate of 10%, aligning with forecasts, while its cloud business grew by 34%, slightly above expectations [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite positive earnings reports, there is a divergence in investor sentiment regarding tech stocks, leading to volatility in stock prices [2][4]. - Some investors are focusing on the significant profit decline, while others are optimistic about the overall performance, indicating a need for the market to digest varying investment strategies [3][4]. - The recent stock price declines are attributed to profit-taking by short-term investors after the earnings announcements, despite overall positive performance [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains optimistic due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have increased from a probability of below 40% to around 85% [5][6]. - The inflow of capital from mainland investors continues to support the Hong Kong market, contributing to a more favorable funding environment [6]. - Concerns about AI market bubbles and the need for tech stocks to digest previous valuation increases are influencing current market dynamics [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed significant gains, with copper futures experiencing a slight increase of 0.19%, reaching 86,580.00 CNY/ton [1] - Recent dovish signals from multiple key Federal Reserve officials have heightened market expectations for interest rate cuts, although delays in economic data releases due to a government shutdown have increased short-term volatility risks [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - A fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, has led to a production halt, resulting in a projected 35% decrease in copper and gold output by 2026 compared to previous expectations [1] - Copper production in September and October saw a significant reduction due to a shortage of anode plates [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains mixed across traditional and emerging sectors, with real estate and home appliances showing weakness, while electricity, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI sectors provide strong support, offsetting declines in traditional sectors [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to over 80%, and improved dialogue between U.S. and Chinese leaders has eased geopolitical risks [2] - Supply of copper raw materials remains tight, with domestic smelting maintenance decreasing marginally, while downstream operating rates remain strong, suggesting limited inventory pressure [2] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength, with the reference range for the main copper futures contract set between 85,800 and 87,000 CNY/ton [2]

Market Overview - Domestic benchmark indices experienced a rally driven by strong global cues and improved investor sentiment, primarily due to rising expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut, which has enhanced risk appetite globally [1] - The Sensex rose by 850.49 points (1.01%) to 85,437.50, while the Nifty 50 increased by 272.40 points (1.05%) to 26,157.20, reflecting a mix of short-covering, sector rotation, and supportive technicals [2] Sector Performance - All sectoral indices showed positive movement, with banking and metal stocks leading the gains, while IT, realty, media, and oil & gas sectors also posted increases of over 1% [3][4] - The Nifty Bank index reached a record high of 59,515.30 during the session [3] Stock Performance - Top gainers in the Nifty 50 included JSW Steel, Adani Ports, HDFC Life, Bajaj Finance, Trent, and Bajaj Finserv, while Bharti Airtel was the only stock in negative territory [5] - Heavyweight stocks such as Reliance, MCX, Axis Bank, Canara Bank, and SBI reached their 52-week highs, indicating strong bullish activity [6] Midcap and Smallcap Indices - The midcap index saw gains led by HUDCO, SAIL, Paytm, Dixon Tech, and Suzlon, which rose by 3-4%, while some stocks like M&M Financial and Coromandel International faced declines [7] - In the smallcap segment, Natco Pharma and Reliance Power surged by 6-7%, while other stocks like MRPL and CreditAccess experienced declines of 1-3% [7]