新华财经北京5月19日电市场风险偏好的快速转暖，令上周（5月12至16日当周）国际金价大幅下跌。当 周现货黄金开盘3275.75美元／盎司，最高触及3292.28美元／盎司，最低3120.77美元／盎司，报收 3202.27美元／盎司，当周下跌124.29美元或3.74%，周线创下去年11月以来最糟糕的一周。 分析来看，对贸易局势的乐观情绪以及美联储重启降息预期时间的延后，是导致上周金价走弱的主要原 因。但也要看到的是，美国近期通胀数据放缓，加上经济数据弱于预期，巩固了美联储今年将进一步降 息的预期，这也使得金价得以险守3200美元／盎司关口。 鲍威尔在上周二的讲话中具体表示，未来通胀可能更加波动，美国可能进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续 时间更持久的时期。他强调，重新考虑平均通胀目标是合适的，稳固通胀预期对美联储至关重要。 鲍威尔透露，美联储正在调整其总体政策制定框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的重大变化， 计划在未来几个月内完成对该框架具体修改的审议。他指出，自2020年以来，经济环境已发生重大变 化，美联储的评估将反映这些变化的考量。尽管如此，鲍威尔认为，评估不太可能影响美联储目前设定 利率的方式 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to seek undervalued equity assets under balanced allocation amid economic expectations and market risk preferences, noting a global increase in risk appetite with most stock markets rising [8][9] - It suggests that despite weak growth signals from the US PMI and rising commodity prices, the US CPI showed a mild decline, indicating a stable economic outlook [8][9] - The report recommends positioning in undervalued sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, as domestic equity assets remain favorable in the long term due to improving consumption and technology trends [8][9] Group 2 - The domestic equity market showed a preference for financial, cyclical, consumer, and growth sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 12,325 billion yuan, down from 13,242 billion yuan [11][17] - Among the 31 primary industries tracked, 20 experienced gains while 11 saw declines, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors leading the gains [11][17] - The report highlights that the market's style shift is influenced by new public fund regulations and the easing of trade tensions, which has affected trading dynamics [11][17] Group 3 - The report tracks the performance of major global asset classes, noting that US stocks outperformed A-shares, while commodities like oil and aluminum saw price increases [11][12] - It indicates that the US Treasury yields rose following a downgrade in the US credit rating by Moody's, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields increasing to 3.98% and 4.43%, respectively [12][12] - The report also mentions the strengthening of the offshore yuan against the US dollar, with a 0.42% appreciation noted [12][12]

宏观 消息 行业 信息 评论 及策 略 涨跌不一，10年期国债活跃券收益率上行至1.673%。央行公开市场操作净回笼2191亿元，上周降低存款准备金 率0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，下调7天期逆回购操作利率10bp，Shibor短端品种多数下行，市 场资金面继续转松。中美会谈取得了实质性进展，取消部分加征关税，双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就各自 关切的经贸问题开展进一步的磋商，市场风险偏好提升。海外美国4月未季调CPI同比上涨2.3%，连续第三个月低于预 期，美债收益率回落。受外部冲击和季节性变化影响，4月制造业景气水平有所回落，出口（以美元计价）同比增长 8.1%，增速有所回落，但仍保持较强韧性，政府债券推动社融存量同比增长8.7%，M2余额同比增长8%，较上月增速均 有所加快。随着谈判取得实质进展，市场避险情绪逐步缓和，国债期货价格回落，短期波动有可能加大。 声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to easing US-China trade tensions, which has led to a shift of funds away from safe-haven assets like gold [1][5] - As of May 15, spot gold prices fell to a new low of $3120, marking the lowest level since April 10, driven by reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][5] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices have broken key support levels, with a potential further decline to $3075 or even the psychological level of $3000 if US PPI data exceeds expectations [1][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The latest data from the EIA indicates an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 3.5 million barrels, raising concerns about supply exceeding demand [5][6] - As a result, WTI crude oil prices fell by $1.33 to $61.82 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to the inventory increase and fears of supply-demand imbalance [5][6] - The technical outlook for oil suggests a downward trend, with expectations of further declines towards the $50 mark after a series of price fluctuations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].

分[析Ta师ble_Report] 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-801 ...

美指100.10-20区间多，防守5美金，目标101-101.80 宏观面 近期黄金市场波动剧烈，从历史高位显著回调，引发市场热议。其价格下跌主要受两大因素驱动：一是全球贸易紧张局势缓和，中美大幅降低关税并暂停部 分关税 90 天，极大提振市场风险偏好，投资者纷纷撤离避险资产，黄金需求下降；二是美元指数探底回升，周三美元指数上涨 0.08%，美国国债收益率也 创下六周新高，10 年期国债收益率突破 4.5%，美联储降息预期调整，使得黄金这类无息资产吸引力下降。不过，地缘政治风险并未完全消散，美欧贸易谈 判进展缓慢，未来或重新提振黄金避险需求。短期来看，贸易乐观情绪和美元走强或继续压制金价；但中长期，地缘政治不确定性、通胀压力及央行购金需 求将为金价提供支撑。投资者需密切关注贸易谈判、美国经济数据、美联储政策等因素，把握黄金市场波动中的投资机会。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周三美元指数呈现出探底回升态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至101.117的位置，最低则下探至100.242，最终以 101.046的价格收 盘。回顾周三市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线震荡运行，随后正如笔者所言价格进一步下跌，对于欧盘前价格接 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to improved global trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, which has boosted market risk appetite [1][3][5] - Gold prices opened lower this week, with a significant drop of 50 points, and are currently trading below key resistance levels, indicating a bearish market sentiment [3][5] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after previous gains, alongside negative technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling bearish momentum [1][3][5] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if gold prices break below the support level of 3200, further declines could occur, potentially targeting the 2909 level [3][5] - The market is currently in a corrective phase, with the previous bullish trend line broken, leading to increased downward pressure on gold prices [3][5][7] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data, such as the US PPI and retail sales, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The positive impact of China-US trade negotiations continued to ferment, and the economic cooperation agreement signed between Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince further boosted market risk appetite, pushing up oil prices. After the negotiation, the market digested the impact of tariffs on the commodity market and repaired the demand expectation of PX. The unplanned loss increment of PX was significant, and combined with the planned device maintenance, the supply of Asian PX tightened significantly. However, the recent failure of some PTA device maintenance to materialize and the unexpectedly high load operation of downstream polyester made the demand expectation of PX also exceed market expectations, further consolidating PX demand. From the medium-term supply and demand pattern of PX, it will still be in the rhythm of destocking in the next few months. On May 14, the PX CFR China price was $870 per ton. The general rise in the bulk chemical market, the low operation rate of PX was beneficial to the market, and individual buyers actively purchased. Both cost and supply supported the upward movement of PX, and the price recovery was obvious [2]. - The low operation rate of PX was beneficial to the market, PTA destocked, the spot basis strengthened, new downstream polyester production capacity was put into operation, and the rigid demand was good, so the PTA market rose. The new polyester production capacity operated stably and maintained a high operation rate, and had a good rigid demand for PTA. In the short term, the PTA spot price mainly followed the cost side. After the inventory of polyester factories was reduced at the end of last month, the operation load of polyester filament was basically stable at present, but the new production devices in the market needed to be followed up. Coupled with the inventory accumulation of most factories during the festival, the subsequent market supply might gradually become abundant. The operation of terminal looms was slowly recovering, and the downstream weaving factories had a low willingness to stock up in early May. It was expected that the downstream concentrated procurement cycle would be in the middle of this month. In general, there were still many PTA device maintenance, while the downstream polyester maintained a high operation rate. It was estimated that PTA would destock from May to June, the price center would fluctuate around the cost, and the short-term price would run strongly [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6,160 - 6,300 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures fluctuated strongly. The supply side of bottle chips raised the quotation, but the downstream terminals had no chasing sentiment, and the market trading was cautious. Recently, the operation rate of the bottle chip industry was at a relatively high level within the year, and the market supply might gradually become abundant. The downstream terminals mainly consumed the previously stocked goods, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [2]. - The improvement of macro - sentiment drove the price recovery. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,874 yuan per ton (up 2.87%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.92 million lots; due to the reduction in supply and the push of cost, the 2509 contract closed at 6,880 yuan per ton (up 2.96%), with an intraday trading volume of 43,460 lots; PR followed the cost, and the 2507 contract closed at 6,200 yuan per ton (up 3.23%), with an intraday trading volume of 79,600 lots. In the overnight crude oil market, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week and the accelerated increase in crude oil supply by OPEC and its减产 allies triggered investors' concerns about oversupply, and international oil prices fell for the first time in five trading days. The effect of sentiment was diminishing at the margin. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would fluctuate [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On May 14, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $63.15 per barrel, down 0.82% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $66.09 per barrel, down 0.81% from the previous value; the spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan on May 13, 2025, was $575.50 per ton, up 1.14% from the previous value; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea on May 14, 2025, was $731.50 per ton, up 3.10% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA** - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,874 yuan per ton, up 2.61% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,852 yuan per ton, up 2.41% from the previous value; the closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 5,050 yuan per ton, up 3.27% from the previous value; the settlement price was 5,010 yuan per ton, up 2.96% from the previous value; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4,933 yuan per ton, up 2.37% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of domestic refined terephthalic acid PTA was 5,100 yuan per ton, up 3.24% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of external refined terephthalic acid PTA on May 13, 2025, was $644 per ton, up 3.87% from the previous value; the near - far month spread was 158 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the basis was 226 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan [1]. - **PX** - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,880 yuan per ton, up 2.56% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,862 yuan per ton, up 2.69% from the previous value; the closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,708 yuan per ton, up 2.69% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,708 yuan per ton, up 2.69% from the previous value; the domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,315 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene CFR Taiwan, China, was $871 per ton, up 2.83% from the previous value; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene FOB South Korea was $846 per ton, up 2.92% from the previous value; the PXN spread was $294.50 per ton, up 6.96% from the previous value; the PX - MX spread was $138.50 per ton, up 2.72% from the previous value; the basis was - 565 yuan per ton, a decrease of 172 yuan [1]. - **PR** - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,200 yuan per ton, up 2.75% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,160 yuan per ton, up 2.56% from the previous value; the closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,980 yuan per ton, up 5.24% from the previous value; the settlement price was 5,936 yuan per ton, up 4.47% from the previous value; the market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,180 yuan per ton, up 2.83% from the previous value; the market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the South China market was 6,250 yuan per ton, up 3.14% from the previous value; the basis in the East China market was - 20 yuan per ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 50 yuan per ton, an increase of 24 yuan [1]. - **Downstream** - On May 14, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,850 yuan per ton, up 1.14% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,200 yuan per ton, up 1.41% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,150 yuan per ton, up 2.88% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,150 yuan per ton, up 2.88% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,695 yuan per ton, up 3.00% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 6,060 yuan per ton, up 3.06% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,180 yuan per ton, up 2.83% from the previous value [2]. Operation and Sales Information - **Operation** - On May 14, 2025, the operation rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 73.32%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of the PTA industry chain in PTA factories was 74.41%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of the PTA industry chain in polyester factories was 91.34%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of the PTA industry chain in bottle - chip factories was 85.13%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of the PTA industry chain in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 64.27%, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Sales** - On May 14, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 52.00%, down 23 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 61.00%, up 4 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester chips was 93.00%, up 38 percentage points from the previous value [1]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20, 2025 [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]