Core Insights - Häagen-Dazs is experiencing a significant reduction in its store presence in China, with the number of locations dropping from over 400 in January 2024 to approximately 247 by mid-2023, indicating a loss of over 150 stores in less than two years [1][11][13] - The brand's parent company, General Mills, reported a 3.2% year-over-year decline in sales for its high-end ice cream business in China, alongside a notable drop in customer traffic by double digits [13][14] - The competitive landscape in the Chinese ice cream market has intensified, with the rise of domestic brands and new beverage options diverting consumer attention away from Häagen-Dazs [14] Store Operations - Currently, only two Häagen-Dazs stores remain operational in Jinan, specifically at Yuhuan Yinzuo and Gaoxin Wanda, while other locations in major shopping centers have ceased operations [1][9][11] - The overall number of Häagen-Dazs stores in Shandong province has decreased to nine, spread across five cities, including Jinan, Qingdao, Zibo, Yantai, and Weihai [8][11][10] Financial Performance - Häagen-Dazs' sales in China have declined from $800 million in the 2019 fiscal year to $730 million in the 2024 fiscal year, reflecting a downward trend in performance [13] - General Mills reported a net sales figure of $1.38 billion for its high-end ice cream business in the three months ending February 23, 2025, down from $1.42 billion in the same period the previous year [13] - For the fiscal year ending May 25, 2025, General Mills' total net sales were $19.5 billion, a decrease of 2% year-over-year, with net profit falling by 8% to $2.3 billion [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the recent extension of tariffs and the potential for a trade agreement [1][6][11] - It emphasizes the historical context of US-China relations, noting significant changes since the Nixon-Kissinger era, particularly China's rise as a competitive economic power [2][27] - The article mentions the impact of tariffs, with the US imposing up to 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and China retaliating with 125% tariffs, leading to a significant economic decoupling [5][6] Group 2 - The dialogue between the US and China is framed as essential for coexistence, with both nations needing to engage in discussions to resolve trade conflicts [4][10] - The potential for a new trade agreement is discussed, with the expectation that it should be detailed and long-lasting, ideally lasting several years [8][9][10] - The article also touches on the geopolitical implications of the trade relationship, including concerns over military and technological competition [28][27] Group 3 - The article reflects on the broader implications of US foreign policy under Trump, particularly regarding transatlantic relations and the perception of Europe [20][22] - It suggests that Trump's approach has damaged the US's image in Europe and that rebuilding trust will take time and effort [22][23] - The discussion includes the need for a multilateral approach to global order, indicating that a new world order cannot be established solely by the US and China [12][24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese aluminum companies maintain a leading position globally in terms of production scale and business purity, with significant cost and profitability advantages, despite a slight narrowing of these advantages [1][2] - In 2024, Chinese listed aluminum companies are expected to account for 47.6% of the global output of listed aluminum companies, with three out of the top five electrolytic aluminum producers being Chinese [2] - The average EBITDA profit margins for Chinese aluminum companies in electrolytic aluminum and alumina are projected to be 25.3% and 37.4%, respectively, which are higher than the overseas averages by 3.3 and 16.9 percentage points [2] - Financial indicators for Chinese aluminum companies show a median ROE of 16.3% and FCF return rate of 9.9%, both exceeding the overseas averages of 9.8% and 5.4% [2] Group 2 - Challenges faced by Chinese aluminum companies include a narrowing profitability advantage and the need for improvement in resource security and dividend returns [3] - Indian and Middle Eastern aluminum companies are gradually showing profitability advantages, with EBITDA profit margins of 33.9% and 25.5%, respectively, surpassing overseas averages [4] - Traditional European and American aluminum companies hold a leading position in resource availability but lack competitive cost structures, resulting in lower profitability [5]

Group 1: Company Fundamentals - The company's fundamentals are crucial, with financial statements reflecting operational performance, such as revenue indicating business results and net profit showcasing profitability [1] - Analyzing the balance sheet helps assess the asset and liability structure, evaluating the company's debt repayment ability [1] - The quality of the management team is vital, as effective leaders with market insight and decision-making skills can drive long-term strategic planning and resource allocation [1] - A sound governance structure ensures robust internal controls and risk management, protecting shareholder interests and maintaining operational stability [1] Group 2: Industry Development Trends - Industry development trends significantly impact stock investment, with emerging sectors like renewable energy and artificial intelligence attracting substantial capital [2] - Mature or declining industries face challenges such as market saturation and intense competition, limiting growth potential [2] - Understanding the competitive landscape, including market share and competitive advantages, is essential for assessing a company's position and growth prospects within its industry [2] Group 3: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is a critical external factor affecting stock investment, with economic cycles directly influencing industry and company performance [3] - During economic expansion, strong consumer demand typically leads to increased corporate profits and rising stock markets, while economic downturns result in lower consumer spending and poor stock performance [3] - Monetary and fiscal policies play significant roles, with loose monetary policy enhancing market liquidity and fiscal measures stimulating economic growth, thereby impacting stock prices [3] - Factors like exchange rates and inflation also indirectly affect stock investments, influencing profits for export-oriented companies and altering asset allocation preferences [3] Group 4: Risk Control - Risk control is a continuous focus in stock investment, as market risks are inherent and can lead to significant price volatility [4] - Companies face various risks, including operational risks that can affect profitability and market reputation [4] - Diversification is a strategy to mitigate risk, encouraging investors to build a varied portfolio across different industries and company sizes to balance potential losses [4]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.49%, the Nasdaq up by 0.94%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.61% [1] - Major technology stocks saw collective gains, with Nvidia rising by 1.8% and its market capitalization briefly surpassing $4 trillion; other tech giants like Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Netflix also increased by over 1% [1] - However, popular Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling by 1.11%, and Alibaba, Bilibili, and JD.com dropping over 3% [1] Employment Policies - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, focusing on stabilizing jobs, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote high-quality economic development [2] - The notice includes measures such as expanding the scope of special loans for job stabilization and increasing the unemployment insurance refund ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises from a maximum of 60% to 90% [2] - It also encourages enterprises to expand hiring by providing social insurance subsidies for small and medium-sized enterprises that employ key groups [2] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - TCL Technology expects a revenue of 82.6 billion to 90.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit forecast of 1.8 billion to 2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 81% to 101% [7] - Jin'an Guoji anticipates a significant increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items, projecting a growth of 4700% to 6300% for the first half of 2025 [8] - Muyuan Foods forecasts a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a growth of 924.60% to 973.39% compared to the previous year [9] - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan [10] Corporate Actions - Alibaba has completed the issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds totaling 12.023 billion Hong Kong dollars, maturing in 2032 [12] - Shank Intelligent announced a suspension of trading due to the planned change of control involving a share transfer [13] - BGI terminated its major asset restructuring plans due to a lack of consensus on core terms among parties involved [14]

Core Viewpoint - The State Post Bureau emphasizes the need to strengthen industry regulation and improve market rules in the postal and express delivery sector, explicitly opposing "involution-style" competition and addressing issues related to the quality of end services [1] Group 1 - The meeting held by the State Post Bureau on July 8 highlighted the importance of enhancing industry supervision [1] - The bureau aims to contribute to the establishment of a unified national market through improved service quality and regulatory compliance [1] - The focus is on legally and systematically addressing the quality issues in end services within the postal and express delivery industry [1]

转自：新华财经 •国办发文进一步加大稳就业政策支持力度 扩大稳岗扩岗专项贷款支持范围 提高相关企业失业保险稳岗返还比例 •国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁7月9日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"首场新闻发布会上表示，我国5年经济增量预计将超过35万亿元，相当于广 东、江苏、山东也就是排名前3经济大省2024年的总量，超过长三角地区的总量，也超过世界排名第3国家的总量，每年对世界经济增长的贡献率保持在30% 左右。（新华财经） •工业和信息化部9日在"全国违约拖欠中小企业款项投诉平台 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】"开通"重点车企践行账期承诺线上问题（建议）反映窗口"，受理中小 企业关于重点车企践行货款支付周期承诺和落实《保障中小企业款项支付条例》不力等问题的反映，协调相关方面推动解决。窗口主要受理重点车企未践行 60天支付期限承诺，在采购合同中约定的付款期限超过60天等问题。（新华财经） •据国家统计局，6月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比由上月下降转为上涨0.1%；环比下降0.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百 分点；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，上涨0.7%。工业生产者出 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] PPI 降幅扩大，"反内卷"势在必行 ——6 月通胀数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比转涨，核心 CPI 同比涨幅扩大、为 2024 年 5 月以来新高，油价、金价等工业消 费品价格回升是主要拉动。6 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大、创 2023 年 8 月以来新低，其中，国内需 求疲弱、部分行业产能过剩，煤炭、钢材、水泥降幅扩大是主要拖累。往前看，猪价或维持窄 幅震荡、能源价格面临一定下行压力，CPI 同比回升的关键仍在于居民消费需求的回升；7 月 中央财经委员会直指"内卷式"竞争治理，多行业积极响应，或提振部分行业价格回升，除了 供给侧的优化，加大对国内基建、地产投资以及居民消费等领域支持的需求侧政策同样重要。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title PPI 降幅扩大，"反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition among food delivery platforms has led to a price war and subsidy battle, reminiscent of the early competition in ride-hailing services, with significant implications for consumers, merchants, and delivery personnel [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition has resulted in aggressive promotional strategies, including substantial discounts and free first orders, aimed at increasing market share [1]. - Some merchants are experiencing a surge in orders, with one tea shop reportedly preparing nearly 3,000 drinks in a single day, yet the profit margins remain extremely low due to high costs and subsidies [1]. - Consumers are benefiting from lower prices but face longer delivery times and potential food safety risks due to the use of lower-quality ingredients by some merchants [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The competition has drawn the attention of regulatory authorities, leading to discussions about compliance with laws such as the E-commerce Law and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law [3]. - New regulations effective from October 15 aim to prevent platforms from forcing merchants into low-price sales and to establish fair competition rules [3]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - There is a need for platforms to adopt self-regulation and focus on innovation and service quality rather than solely competing on price [4]. - Protecting the rights of delivery personnel is crucial, as many are risking their safety by working excessively long hours or taking on multiple orders across platforms [4]. - The industry should shift towards value-based competition, emphasizing technological innovation and service enhancement for sustainable growth [4].

Group 1 - The article highlights the geopolitical dilemma faced by the EU as it attempts to navigate between the US and China, with the EU trying to establish a trade agreement with the US while simultaneously managing its relationship with China [1][2][4] - The EU has imposed trade barriers against Chinese products, citing "unfair competition," but these measures have led to retaliatory actions from China, including investigations into EU products such as pork and brandy [1][5] - The EU's economic dependence on China limits its ability to exert pressure, as highlighted by the fact that many European countries still rely heavily on Chinese industrial materials [8][9][11] Group 2 - The EU's recent measures to restrict Chinese participation in public procurement for medical devices are framed as necessary for "fair competition," but these actions have prompted China to respond with equivalent restrictions [5][7] - Despite the EU's criticisms of China's trade practices, the economic interdependence between the two regions constrains the EU's capacity to apply significant pressure on China [9][11] - The EU is also facing challenges from the US, with expected increases in export tariffs, which may compel the EU to adopt a tougher stance on China as part of negotiations with the US [7][8]