Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: June 16, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows production differentiation, with the steel industry chain in decline and some sectors like asphalt, semi - steel tires, and PTA seeing an uptick. The real estate market is experiencing a marginal decline, and price trends are also diverse. Shipping indices are at relatively high levels. Short - term focus should be on new growth - stimulating policies, the real estate market recovery, and US tariff policy changes [2][31] Summary by Directory Production - In the week of June 13, the utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.97 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 10.89 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 0.2 pct, PX operating rate decreased by 0.3 pct, PTA operating rate increased by 0.26 pct, full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.23 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 4.12 pct [3][9][10] Demand - In the week of June 8, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land transaction area declined, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. Movie box office decreased by 110 million yuan compared to the previous week. Automobile manufacturers' daily average retail sales decreased by 52,500 vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 117,800 vehicles. In the week of June 13, the SCFI dropped by 6.79%, CCFI rose by 7.63%, and BDI increased significantly by 20.51% [3][13][15][18] Prices - In the week of June 13, Brent crude oil prices rose by 11.67% to $74.23 per barrel, coking coal futures prices dropped by 0.71% to 773.5 yuan per ton, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.24%, + 2.10%, - 1.35% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices fell by 0.70%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.98%, - 3.58%, - 0.46%, - 0.13% respectively compared to the previous week [3][21][22][24] Logistics - In the week of June 14, subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, domestic flight volume increased while international flight volume decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities rebounded. Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 261,400 person - times with a weekly change of 2.82%, Shanghai's increased by 795,700 person - times with a weekly change of 8.67%. Domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 58 flights with a weekly change of 0.47%, international flight volume decreased by 69.43 flights with a weekly change of - 3.78%, and the first - tier city peak congestion index increased by 0.14 with a weekly change of 9.05% [4][26][28] Summary - Steel production declined, and crude oil prices increased significantly. High - frequency economic data shows production differentiation, a marginal decline in the real estate market, diverse price trends, and relatively high shipping indices. Short - term focus should be on new growth - stimulating policies, the real estate market recovery, and US tariff policy changes [31]

Group 1 - The upcoming Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is seen as a precursor to the national Diet's House of Councillors election, with voting scheduled for June 22 [2][4] - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is under scrutiny to maintain its seats in the Tokyo Assembly, as no party holds an absolute majority [4] - Recent polls indicate a rise in support for Abe, with one poll showing a 6% increase to 39% and another showing a 7% increase to 34%, up from around 20% previously [4] Group 2 - Approximately 300 candidates are contesting in the Tokyo Assembly election, marking the highest number in over 30 years [4] - The main issues in the election include rising prices, political scandals, and demographic challenges such as aging and declining birth rates [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.5% year-on-year in April, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [6] Group 3 - Abe has pledged to increase nominal GDP to 1,000 trillion yen by 2040 and aims for a 50% increase in average wages, requiring an annual growth rate of approximately 2.74% [8] - The LDP is considering cash handouts to citizens to alleviate the impact of rising prices [9] - The price of rice in Japan has doubled compared to the previous year, with the average price for a 5 kg bag reaching 4,223 yen [9] Group 4 - Japan's government is facing pressure from U.S. tariffs, with a significant decline in business confidence reported among large enterprises [11] - The confidence index for large companies dropped from 2.0 to -1.9 in the second quarter, with the manufacturing sector particularly affected [11] - The steel industry confidence index fell to -29.1, while the automotive sector index was at -16.1, indicating severe challenges [11]

香港金管局提到，随着美国宣布施加远超市场预期的对等关税，全球经济增长放缓的风险上升。全球金 融市场表现波动，但继续畅顺运作，无迹象显示存在广泛的融资压力。尽管延迟实施对等关税为普遍面 对较高税率的出口依赖型亚洲经济体带来一定程度的缓解，但日后会实施关税的可能性仍对经济增长构 成重大阻力。 在4月初，面对美国进一步加征关税，长仓美元的外汇交易因避险情绪而平仓，加上南向资金持续流 入，港元进一步转强。港元银行同业拆息继续跟随美元利率走势，较短期的拆息同时亦受本地供求情况 影响。短期香港银行同业拆息在接近年底时一度收紧，但其后随着资金需求减退而回软。兑换保证于报 告期内没有被触发，总结余维持稳定，约为450亿港元；贴现窗的使用情况未见异常。整体而言，港元 外汇及银行同业市场交易继续畅顺有序。 香港金管局表示，随着美国施加对等关税，香港经济的增长前景面对的下行风险有所加剧。然而，内地 促进经济增长政策及人工智能领域取得的进展、市场对美国降息的预期，以及入境旅游业的持续复苏等 多项因素在一定程度上有助减轻相关影响。另一方面，随着港府调整楼价较低物业的印花税，住宅物业 市场成交量在3月有所增加，但市场气氛在4月因全球金融 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The flat inflation data in the US may be seen by the Trump administration as a favorable condition to maintain the tariff policy, but due to the clear role of tariffs in the fiscal plan, the Trump administration is unlikely to significantly increase tariffs easily [2][13] - The flat consumption data is related to the flat employment growth, the decline in consumer confidence, and the Fed's stance on combating inflation [2][7] - If tariffs cannot be passed on to prices, it will eventually undermine importer confidence, making the problem of commodity shortages more obvious and increasing price pressure [2] Summary by Related Content Inflation Data Analysis - The overall CPI data in the US in May was flat, with stable year - on - year changes in core, energy, and food CPI. Prices remained stable despite new tariffs in April and May, and the ability of importers to pass on tariffs to consumers is uncertain [2][4] - The housing price index was the main driver of the CPI increase in May, while the energy price index decreased month - on - month [3] Consumption and Employment Situation - Consumption data is affected by employment growth, consumer confidence, and the Fed's anti - inflation stance. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment in the US has been steadily declining since this year, and GDP and consumer spending growth may return to the non - farm employment growth rate [2][7] - The consumer confidence index in April and May was at the fourth - lowest point on record. Although consumer confidence decline is related to expected inflation, inflation expectations may lead to a decrease in consumer spending [9] Tariff Policy and Its Impact - The Trump administration is unlikely to revoke or reduce tariffs easily, nor will it significantly increase tariffs easily, as tariffs are expected to cut the deficit by $2.8 trillion in the next 10 years [2][13] - If tariffs cannot be passed on to prices, it will affect importer confidence, and if energy prices rebound, price pressure in the US may increase [2][12]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 5月通胀数据意外未"爆表" 关税后第一份CPI报告没有爆表，这虽然在意料之外，但却在情理之中。 在中航证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，美国5月CPI低于市场预期，主要源于多重因素暂时抑制了关税 向通胀的传导效应。其一，今年一季度美国进口增速较高，在关税不确定性下，"抢进口"效应较为显 著，导致美国零售企业库存较高。这使得在关税提高后，进口价格上行对美国通胀的影响受到缓冲。其 二，4月全面实施"对等关税"后，美国迅速对多数贸易伙伴设置了90天宽限期。因此，报复性关税对美 国进口价格的影响仍主要体现为10%的基础关税，对美国通胀的推升作用相对有限。其三，PMI、非农 就业等数据显示美国经济本身存在放缓趋势，这也在一定程度上抑制了美国通胀的上行。 当地时间6月11日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比增长2.4%，低于市场预期的2.5%；5 月CPI环比增长0.1%，低于预期的0.2%。剔除食品和能源成本后，5月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，保持在 2021年3月以来的最低水平，低于预期的2.9%；核心CPI环比增长0.1%，也低于预期的0.3%。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对 ...

Group 1 - The new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration have raised concerns among financial institutions and businesses about potential inflation, despite recent CPI reports indicating manageable inflation levels [1][2] - The May CPI report showed a nominal inflation increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above April's 2.3% [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 2.8%, but was below market expectations of 2.9% [1] Group 2 - The employment market has shown a downward trend, with average monthly job additions from January to May at 123,800, lower than the previous year's average of 179,600 [2][3] - The service sector has been the primary source of job growth, while manufacturing and federal government sectors have seen job losses [3] Group 3 - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.97 trillion, with a recent bill increasing the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3][4] - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by a high issuance rate of 5.047% for 30-year bonds in May, indicating increased risk perception [4] Group 4 - The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices and the depreciation of the dollar suggest a growing distrust in U.S. fiscal policy and the dollar's stability [5] - The impact of tariff policies on the global supply chain is significant, with reduced cargo volumes at several ports and rising production costs affecting economic growth [5][6] Group 5 - The stock market has returned to previous levels, but there are concerns about whether inflated stock prices can be supported by upcoming earnings reports [6] - The concentration of market value in the top ten stocks of the S&P 500, which account for 40% of the index, poses a serious risk to market stability [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trading logic of the soybean market comes from weather themes and the prospects of Sino - US trade relations, with a continued staged rebound trend. The internal and external soybean futures prices are still in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern [5]. - Although there is disappointment about the lack of agricultural content in the details of the Sino - US trade agreement, soybean oil prices are supported by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy. The short - term futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, which drives up domestic soybean oil prices [7]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, putting pressure on the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US principles have reached an agreement framework, with positive expectations for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures prices continue to show weather - market volatility characteristics [5]. 3.2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy, the futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, bringing a linkage boost to domestic soybean oil prices [7]. 3.3. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, and the market is under pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term [8].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Vujicic stated that it is currently unclear whether the U.S. tariff policy exerts deflationary pressure or inflationary impetus [1] - The ongoing turbulence in U.S. policy is prompting investors to shift their focus towards the European market [1] - The ECB is considering waiting for new economic forecasts and data before taking further action [1]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures have shown a slight increase in price, with a weekly fluctuation of 2.49%, while inventory levels are rising both domestically and internationally [1][2]. Market Overview - As of June 5, methanol inventory at East China ports reached 292,600 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from May 29 [2]. - Domestic methanol production facilities operated at 74.52% capacity, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points from the previous week, but an increase of 5.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to U.S. tariff policies, and the market is entering a seasonal low demand period [3]. - Ningzheng Futures noted stable coal prices and high domestic methanol production expectations, with port inventories continuing to rise [3]. - The short-term price forecast for methanol futures suggests a range of 2,220 to 2,320 yuan per ton, with potential resistance at 2,290 yuan [3].