Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to July [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, marking an acceleration in manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, showing continued strength in these sectors [3] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output prices rose to 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from July, indicating continued expansion [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, the highest point of the year, reflecting a significant recovery [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from July, due to adverse weather conditions [6] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector was 57.0%, suggesting optimism among service enterprises regarding future market prospects [5] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from July, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] - Analysts expect that the combination of policy support and market self-recovery will continue to release domestic demand potential in the coming months [6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery in August, indicating a stabilization in production and new orders, with high-tech manufacturing sectors demonstrating strong performance [2][4][14]. Group 1: New Momentum Supporting Strong Production - In August, the PMI production index rose to 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point for four consecutive months [9]. - The high-tech manufacturing PMI increased to 51.9%, a significant rise of 1.3 percentage points from the previous value, with the production index reaching around 54% [9][4]. - The manufacturing business activity expectation index improved to 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, with optimistic expectations in sectors like general equipment and aerospace [9][4]. - High-tech manufacturing profits turned from a decline of 0.9% in June to a growth of 18.9%, contributing to an overall acceleration in industrial profit growth [9][4]. Group 2: Data on Manufacturing PMI Recovery - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, slightly up from 49.3% in the previous month [14]. - The new orders index was at 49.5%, and the new export orders index was at 47.2%, indicating continued challenges in demand [14]. - The employment index was at 47.9%, and the supplier delivery time index was at 50.5%, reflecting mixed signals in the labor market and supply chain [14]. - The raw material inventory index was at 48.0%, showing a slight increase in inventory levels compared to the previous month [14]. Group 3: Other Notable Sub-Indices - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.5%, marking a year-to-date high, with strong performance in capital market services and transportation [17]. - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, with new orders dropping to 40.6%, indicating a slowdown in construction activities [17][10]. - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, suggesting rising costs in certain sectors [3][16].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is reported at 49.4%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the neutral threshold; medium enterprises have a PMI of 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, below the threshold; small enterprises have a PMI of 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points, also below the threshold [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Central Huijin has increased its holdings in several ETFs, including broad-based ETFs and sector-specific ETFs such as those related to liquor and chemicals, as disclosed in the latest public fund mid-term report [2] - Over 430 listed companies have announced share repurchase plans this year, with a total repurchase amount exceeding 100 billion yuan; more than 440 companies have announced shareholder buyback plans, with the highest buyback amount exceeding 70 billion yuan [5] - As of the end of August, the scale of ETFs in the Shanghai market has surpassed 3.7 trillion yuan, with domestic ETFs accounting for over 70% of the total; significant inflows of over 350 billion yuan have been recorded this year [6] Group 3: Pension Fund Developments - The number of personal pension funds has increased to 303, up from 297 at the end of June, with several large fund companies participating [7] - The newly added personal pension funds since July are primarily enhanced index funds, indicating a shift in investment strategy [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In August, the PMI data showed a combination of "manufacturing at the bottom and non - manufacturing moderately recovering". Compared with the "double - weak" situation in July, the short - term economic downward risk may be alleviated. With the weakening of the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather, the continuous release of policy effects, and the influence of seasonal factors, the economy is expected to continue the recovery trend, and the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to improve month - on - month, which may weaken the downward driving force of long - term interest rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs August Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, continuing to expand. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, the production index was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, with continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, with insufficient market demand. The new export order index was 47.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, with foreign demand hovering at a low level [2]. - In terms of prices, the purchase price index of major raw materials was 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, rising for three consecutive months and in the expansion range for two consecutive months. The ex - factory price index was 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, also rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest point this year. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI will continue to narrow, and the pressure on industrial product prices may be alleviated [2]. August Non - manufacturing - The service industry business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, reaching the highest point this year. Industries such as capital market services, railway transportation, and aviation transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating that service enterprises were optimistic about the market [3]. - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, in the contraction range, mainly due to the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%, slightly higher than the previous month. Looking forward, with the weakening of the weather impact and the release of policies, the economy may continue to recover, and the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to improve [4].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.4%, slightly up from 49.3% in the previous month[2] - The production index within PMI is at 50.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from 50.5%[10] - The new orders index is at 49.5%, up from 49.4% previously, while the new export orders index is at 47.2%, slightly up from 47.1%[10] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9%, a significant increase of 1.3 percentage points from 50.6%[4] - The construction sector's business activity index dropped to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from 50.6%[3] - The service sector's business activity index increased to 50.5%, marking a 0.5 percentage point rise, reaching a yearly high[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing production expectation index is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 18.9%, reversing a 0.9% decline in June, contributing to a 2.9 percentage point acceleration in overall industrial profit growth[4] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in production activities[14]

Core Viewpoint - The August PMI indicates a divergence among industries, with manufacturing stabilizing slightly, service sectors improving significantly, and construction experiencing a notable decline. However, all three sectors show a common trend of improving sales prices [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The August manufacturing PMI stands at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3 in July, indicating a need for further support for actual growth [5]. - The production index is above 50 at 50.8, reflecting a stronger production performance compared to new orders, which remain below 50 [9][10]. - The consumer goods sector is a major drag on manufacturing PMI, while high-tech manufacturing shows strength, and both equipment manufacturing and basic raw materials industries show slight improvements [10] - The raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3, up 1.8 points, while the factory price index increased to 49.1, up 0.8 points, marking the third consecutive month of price increases [11][12]. Service Sector - The service sector PMI for August is 50.5, up from 50.0, indicating a positive trend influenced by capital market services, which have seen a business activity index above 70 for two consecutive months [5][10]. - Retail sentiment remains weak, suggesting challenges in consumer spending [10]. Construction Sector - The construction PMI dropped to 49.1 from 50.6, attributed to adverse weather conditions and a slowdown in construction activities [18]. - Fiscal spending on infrastructure showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in July, continuing a trend of low spending [18]. Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" for August reveal low absolute values, indicating a short-term economic slowdown compared to the first half of the year [19]. - Price indicators show a continuous improvement, which may influence future PPI trends [19]. - The manufacturing inventory index decreased to 46.8, while the raw material inventory index increased to 48.0, reflecting a proactive approach by companies to replenish stocks in response to rising prices [16][15]. Future Outlook - Attention is needed on the government's emphasis on stabilizing construction and actual growth, as well as whether the continuous improvement in PMI price indicators can translate into a rise in PPI [19]. - The manufacturing production expectation index rose to 53.7, the highest since April, indicating improved business expectations possibly linked to price expectations [17].

Manufacturing Sector - August manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 49.1%[2] - Production index rose to 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; new orders index increased to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points[5] - Large enterprises' PMI improved significantly to 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI rose to 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium enterprises' PMI fell to 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points[5] Export and Import Trends - New export orders index rose to 47.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating stabilization in export momentum[20] - Import index increased to 48.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, reflecting ongoing production expansion[20] Price Indices - Raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points; factory price index increased to 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating a potential upward trend in PPI[25] - Raw material inventory index increased to 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, while finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.8%, down 0.6 percentage points[25] Service Sector - Service sector business activity index rose to 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and higher than last year's 50.2%[29] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector increased to 57.0%, indicating positive market sentiment[29] Construction Sector - Construction sector business activity index fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.1%, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[32] - The decline in construction activity is attributed to adverse weather conditions and reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure investments[32]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 8 月 PMI：新动能或主要支撑经济修复 —2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 8 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.4%，较 7 月回升 0.1 个百分点，说明 经济维持修复态势，经济的主要支撑来自政策组合拳协同共振，内生动能尚 有一定改善空间。从结构上看，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界 点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点，说明制造业 有效需求依然承压，供给侧的韧性主要来自工业稳增长政策效能释放。我们 认为，前期的"两重"和"两新"等政策稳步发力，新近推出的财政贴息、加 强全国碳市场建设、金融支持新型工业化、"人工智能+"行动等政策也更多 支撑新动能。 从重点行业来看，新动能加快扩张，传统产业边际改善。8 月高技术制造业和 装备制造业 PMI 分别为 51.9%和 50.5%，比上月上升 1.3 和 0.2 个百分点， 支撑引领作用持续增强；消费品行业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分 点；高耗能行业 PMI 为 48.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，景气水平连续回 升。 大类资产方面，我们认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of the PMI manufacturing index in August, along with improvements in production, new orders, and prices, indicates the initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering excessive competition. The stock market's recovery is boosting economic confidence, which may lead to a rebound in consumer spending. Future policies to expand domestic demand are expected to strengthen the positive economic trend, especially in the service consumption sector as the impact of durable goods policies diminishes [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Resilience - The production index in August rose to 50.8%, while the new orders index was at 49.5%, indicating a strong resilience in the economy despite a widening supply-demand gap of 1.3 percentage points [2]. - The increase in production is attributed to stable domestic demand and a recovering stock market, alongside exporters rushing to ship goods due to new tax regulations [2]. Group 2: Price Index Trends - The PMI output price index and raw material purchase price index increased by 0.8 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points to 49.1% and 53.3%, respectively, marking three consecutive months of price increases [3]. - The rise in prices is linked to the initial success of measures to curb excessive competition, with 11 out of 16 industries showing price increases [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Procurement Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 46.8%, while raw material inventory and procurement levels rose, indicating a shift towards passive inventory reduction [4]. - Companies are adjusting procurement levels in response to new orders, maintaining low inventory levels as demand and exports increase [4]. Group 4: Performance of Enterprises - Large enterprises saw a significant increase in their index to 50.8%, while small enterprises slightly rose to 46.6%, and medium enterprises fell to 48.9% [5]. - The service sector, particularly transportation and entertainment, benefited from summer consumption, with business activity indices for rail and air transport exceeding 55% [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The PMI manufacturing index remains in contraction for five consecutive months, highlighting ongoing economic pressures, particularly for small and medium enterprises [7]. - Continued policy support is necessary to sustain economic recovery, especially in demand, with upcoming measures to stimulate service consumption and digital economy initiatives [7].

Group 1: PMI Overview - In August 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - The manufacturing PMI remains below the neutral line, reflecting ongoing structural challenges such as weak inventory replenishment and employment pressures[4] - The Services PMI rose significantly to 50.5%, marking the best performance of the year, driven by active capital markets and a rebound in the financial sector[8] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI - The increase in the manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by production, with the Production Index rising 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%, while the New Orders Index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%[5] - Extreme weather conditions had a negative impact on industrial operations, but their effects diminished in August, contributing to the marginal rise in the manufacturing PMI[5] - The Raw Material Purchase Price Index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, outperforming the Factory Price Index, which rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%, indicating a stronger recovery in upstream prices compared to downstream[5] Group 3: Employment and Inventory Trends - The Employment Index fell to 47.9%, reflecting a seasonal slowdown and indicating that the job market has not shown significant improvement[6] - Companies are exhibiting cautious behavior by reducing inventories, as evidenced by a significant decline in the Finished Goods Inventory Index, suggesting a preference for consuming existing stock rather than expanding production[6] - The current economic recovery appears to be structural rather than broad-based, with price increases driven more by supply constraints and changes in expectations rather than a robust recovery in downstream demand[6]