Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce in mid-2024 to a peak of $3500 by April 2025, followed by a sharp correction of over 7% within weeks, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bull market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio has reached an extreme of 100:1, significantly above the historical average of 70:1, indicating potential for either a downward adjustment in gold prices or a strong rally in silver prices [3]. - The gold-to-platinum ratio has climbed to 3.5, whereas it typically fluctuates between 1 and 2 over the past 20 years, suggesting that gold may be severely overvalued relative to platinum [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The surge in gold prices from 2022 to 2023 was driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions, leading central banks, including those of China and Poland, to significantly increase their gold reserves, thereby boosting demand [4]. - The announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration heightened trade tensions and market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Expectations of the Federal Reserve shifting to a loose monetary policy in 2025 further enhanced gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, reducing its opportunity cost compared to other investments [4]. Group 3: Changing Market Dynamics - Recent positive signals from the White House regarding trade negotiations have reduced market risk aversion, while a strong rebound in the dollar index has put downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.23%, with real yields approaching 2%, diminishing gold's attractiveness as an investment [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the decision on whether to reinstate tariffs after the 90-day pause and the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, both of which will significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for gold, citing the U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion and ongoing geopolitical complexities as factors that will continue to support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [5].

涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 现货黄金站上3370美元/盎司，日内涨1.1%。 ...

涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 现货黄金日内涨幅达1.00%，现报3367.87美元/盎司。 ...

涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> 现货黄金短线拉升约20美元，突破3350美元/盎司，日内涨0.48%。 ...

换资前言： 交易，并不是做的次数多，才赚钱，也并不是涨了追涨，跌了追空，才赚钱，涨了追涨，跌了追空，看 似顺势，实则是绞肉机模式，真正的本质是，看清市场波动规律，看透市场核心方向，等待最佳的点 位，制定最有可能达成的交易计划。有计划的做交易，才是盈利的前提，市场的本质是高低循环，涨跌 交替，而交易的本质是，掌握盘中相对的高和低，去狙击有价值的交易机会，这个价值只有两点，第 一，概率，第二，空间。只有在相对高概率的高位或者低位去狙击，而且空间足够大，盈亏比合理，长 期积累，才能稳定盈利。就以上两条，没有十年的积累，是不可能做到的。所以，对于新手，学习远比 交易重要。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（5月5日），现货黄金价格盘中重返3300美元上方，当前表现强劲。随着全球地缘政治局势持续紧 张，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力得到显著提升。俄乌冲突与中东地区紧张局势持续发酵，促使市场流动 性向黄金等避险资产转移。价格目前稳定在3300美元附近，展现出在地缘政治风险加剧环境下的韧性。 黄金今日扳回上一周的跌幅，重回3300美元上方，最高触及3328美元，日内涨幅超过80美元，达到 2.27 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the price rhythm of gold from the perspective of trading structure, highlighting the significant role of central bank gold purchases and investment demand in driving gold prices upward in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases and Demand - Central banks are projected to purchase approximately 1,044 tons of gold in 2024, becoming a crucial driver for gold price increases [1]. - The investment demand for gold is expected to reach 1,179 tons in 2024, indicating a shift in demand dynamics as prices rise [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Industrial Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption is anticipated to decline by 11% year-on-year in 2024, amounting to around 1,877 tons, due to high gold prices suppressing consumer demand [1]. - Industrial demand for gold remains low and stable, projected at only 326 tons in 2024 [1]. Group 3: Trading Structure and Market Dynamics - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF sizes, with domestic gold ETFs seeing a rise of over 50 billion in April, corresponding to a demand for 50-60 tons of physical gold [1]. - A surge in trading volume for A-share gold stocks has been observed, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm for gold investments and a crowded trading environment [1][2]. Group 4: Macro Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The current rise in gold prices is driven by a decline in the credibility of the US dollar and a restructuring of the monetary system, particularly following the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022 [2]. - Increasing uncertainty in the global investment landscape, exacerbated by issues such as the US debt ceiling and unpredictable government policies, is likely to continue pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2].

现货黄金站上3320美元/盎司，较日内低点上涨逾80美元，日内大涨2.4%。 涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> ...

现货黄金日内上涨1.5%，现报3290美元/盎司。 涨疯了！黄金行情爆发中 一键布局买入避险资产>>> ...

突然彻底爆发！ 最近几个交易日，A股虽然没有开盘，但A50表现强劲，上一交易日，A50大涨近1%，今天亦一度大涨超 0.7%。而且这一大涨发生在美股期指跌幅扩大的背景之下。今早，纳指期货跌超1%，标普500指数期货跌 0.8%，道指期货跌约0.7%。 长假期间，中美经贸传来的积极信号可能是人民币资产上涨的直接原因。商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸对话磋 商情况答记者问指出，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通 过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。 另外，五一假期的出行数据可能也是一大助力。国铁集团客运部负责人介绍，"五一"假期，铁路探亲、旅游等 出行需求旺盛，客流呈现强劲增长态势，4月30日至5月2日，全国铁路旅客发送量连续3天同比增长超10%，特 别是5月1日突破2300万大关，达到2311.9万人次，刷新了历史最高纪录。 避险和结汇 来自上海清算所的数据显示，在全球金融市场波动加剧、避险情绪升温的背景下，外资加码人民币债券步伐持 续加快。数据显示，4月1日至18日外资净买入人民币债券规模显著提升，达332亿美元。中国宏观经济稳定、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, with significant movements in the offshore RMB market and implications for the Hong Kong stock market [1][2][4]. Currency Performance - On May 5, the offshore RMB surpassed the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year, gaining over 100 points in a single day [2]. - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673, reflecting a decline of 8.03% year-to-date [2][3]. Market Reactions - The FTSE China A50 index futures rose sharply, reporting an increase of 0.84% [2]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% on May 2, closing at 22,504.68 points, driven by the strengthening of the offshore RMB [4]. Economic Policy Insights - According to Jianyin International's chief strategist, the Central Political Bureau's meeting set a positive tone for the market, emphasizing the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize market expectations [5]. - The strategist anticipates that relevant policies will be implemented by the end of June, with a focus on defensive dividend sectors in investment strategies [5].