现货铂金持续走高，现涨超3%，报2002.3美元/盎司，为自2008年以来首次升破2000美元/盎司，今年累 涨超120%。 专家普遍认为，全球央行持续购金已成为打破传统供需平衡的关键变量，而美联储货币政策转向宽松预 计将进一步利好黄金。长期来看，美元购买力变化、央行储备行为及地缘政治风险仍是影响金价的核心 因素。 据世界黄金协会12日报告显示，11月全球实物黄金ETF流入达52亿美元，已连续六个月实现流入。截至 11月底，资产管理总规模增至5300亿美元，环比增长5.4%；总持仓上升1%至3932吨，均创新高，今年 全球黄金ETF流入总量有望创下历史最佳年度表现。 12月22日，贵金属集体大涨，多个品种创新高。 | | 不需給馬 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4383.035 | 44.675 | 1.03% | 67.03% | | 伦敦银现 | 68.471 | 1.422 | 2.12% | 137.03% | | COMEX黄金 | 4414.5d | 27.2 | 0.6 ...

一、日度新闻 ·以总理访美前伊朗军方最新表态：密切关注相关事态发展金十数据12月21日讯，当地时间12月21日，针对以色列总理 内塔尼亚胡即将访美以及以色列对伊朗的威胁，伊朗武装部队副总参谋长萨达尔·瓦希迪在接受媒体采访时表示，以色 列政权正面临巨大问题，这一点已非常明显。以色列在对伊朗的战争中并未实现任何目标，伊朗正在密切关注相关事态 发展。萨达尔·瓦希迪称，以色列试图通过媒体，对伊朗发动"心理战"来掩盖其弱点，从而营造一种截然不同的现实图 景，以色列试图通过一系列威胁举措来掩盖其在今年的12日战争中遭受的惨败。他表示，以色列的言论和宣传不会给其 带来任何好处。"如今，以色列政权孤立无援，只是徒劳地试图自救。" ·以总理访美前伊朗军方最新表态：密切关注相关事态发展金十数据12月21日讯，当地时间12月21日，针对以色列总理 内塔尼亚胡即将访美以及以色列对伊朗的威胁，伊朗武装部队副总参谋长萨达尔·瓦希迪在接受媒体采访时表示，以色 列政权正面临巨大问题，这一点已非常明显。以色列在对伊朗的战争中并未实现任何目标，伊朗正在密切关注相关事态 发展。萨达尔·瓦希迪称，以色列试图通过媒体，对伊朗发动"心理战"来掩盖其弱点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that BMW's new procurement director, Nicolai Martin, emphasizes the need to balance cost opportunities with geopolitical risks, particularly in the semiconductor sector [1][4] - Martin acknowledges the risks associated with reliance on Nexperia for chip supply, indicating that discussions to reduce dependency were ongoing when the situation escalated [1][2] - He highlights the attractiveness of sourcing semiconductors from China due to cost factors, noting that the Chinese semiconductor market is rapidly growing with nearly 100 production bases being established [2][4] Group 2 - Martin states that Chinese suppliers are crucial not only for semiconductors but also for other components, such as battery cells and interior/exterior parts, which are supplied globally [3][4] - He argues that closer relationships with Chinese suppliers do not equate to increased dependency risks, but rather enhance BMW's competitiveness in the global market [4][5] - The challenging situation faced by German and European suppliers, including layoffs and supply chain pressures, has prompted BMW to proactively assess the financial stability and quality of its partners [5]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a sustained high level of market activity and potential for price increases [11][30][55]. Core Insights - Copper prices have increased by 2.75% to $11,870.5 per ton on the LME, while domestic prices have slightly decreased. Supply constraints and weak demand are expected to lead to a slight reduction in inventory levels [12]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.80% to $2,955.50 per ton on the LME, with domestic production remaining stable despite high inventory levels. The market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, but there are signs of recovery [13]. - Gold prices increased by 0.79% to $4,368.7 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The SPDR gold holdings have also increased, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [14]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price movements due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions. Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [31]. - Antimony prices have decreased by 2.37%, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [32]. - Tin prices have increased by 1.86%, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [33]. - Lithium prices have risen by 3.66% to 96,700 CNY per ton, with production levels stable and demand from the energy sector remaining strong [56]. - Cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with a slight increase in some products, but overall market activity is subdued due to seasonal factors [59]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.75% to $11,870.5 per ton, while domestic prices decreased slightly. Supply constraints and weak demand are expected to lead to a slight reduction in inventory levels [12]. - The smelting sector is experiencing a decrease in operational rates, with a forecasted decline in production due to year-end inventory control [12]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 2.80% to $2,955.50 per ton, with domestic production remaining stable despite high inventory levels. The market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, but there are signs of recovery [13]. - The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has decreased, indicating a continuation of weak demand [13]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.79% to $4,368.7 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The SPDR gold holdings have also increased, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [14]. Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price movements due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions. Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [31]. Antimony - Antimony prices have decreased by 2.37%, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [32]. Tin - Tin prices have increased by 1.86%, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [33]. Lithium - Lithium prices have risen by 3.66% to 96,700 CNY per ton, with production levels stable and demand from the energy sector remaining strong [56]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with a slight increase in some products, but overall market activity is subdued due to seasonal factors [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Oil prices fluctuated within a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and weak fundamentals. The escalating tension between the US and Venezuela led to a rebound in oil prices. The US's actions against Venezuela may reduce its oil exports, and the geopolitical situation will drive short - term oil prices up. The market's sensitivity to geopolitics has decreased, and the impact of interest - rate cuts on oil prices is limited. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still depends on the evolution of the supply - demand pattern. [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Oil prices fluctuated in a range under the influence of geopolitical uncertainties and weak fundamentals. The tension between the US and Venezuela intensified, causing oil prices to stop falling and rebound. Trump's order to "fully and completely block" sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela may reduce Venezuela's oil exports. The geopolitical situation will drive short - term oil prices up, and the development of the US - Venezuela situation should be monitored. [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Short - term shock is relatively stable. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to be bearish and wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see. [9][11] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Trump ordered a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela and labeled the Maduro regime as a "foreign terrorist organization", escalating pressure on Maduro. [10] - **Negative Information**: Venezuela approved two super - large crude oil tankers to sail to Asia, with each tanker carrying about 1.9 million barrels of heavy crude oil. These tankers are not on the US sanctions list. [10] 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the US - Venezuela situation. The tension in the Venezuela geopolitical situation has replaced the Russia - Ukraine issue as the short - term price - determining factor. The market's sensitivity to geopolitics has decreased, and the impact of interest - rate cuts on oil prices is limited. [13] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices remained stable and continued the recent shock pattern, with a four - month consecutive decline. [16] - **Domestic Market**: The SC2602 contract of the SC main contract closed at 426.6 yuan/ton last week, a weekly decrease of 2.71%. As of December 19, the open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 87,677 lots, a week - on - week increase of 9,721 lots compared to December 5. [18][19] - **Foreign Market**: The main contract of US oil rose 0.96% to close at $56.54 per barrel, a weekly decrease of 1.57%; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.01% to close at $60.1 per barrel, a weekly decrease of 1.67%. As of December 19, the open interest of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was 659,929 contracts, an increase of 102,674 contracts; the open interest of the US crude oil main contract was 326,435 contracts, an increase of 14,505 contracts. [19][20] 3.2 Internal - External Spread Tracking - **Spread**: As of December 19, the SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $1.11 per barrel, the SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.94 per barrel, the SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $1.37 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.83 per barrel. [24] - **Arbitrage**: As of December 19, the theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 458.90 yuan/ton, and the deviation of the SC M + 3 disk was - 6.47%, which was larger than last week. The estimated SC theoretical landed profit was - 29.78 yuan/ton, and the loss was narrower than last week. The SC M + 3 - Brent M + 2 spread on the disk was $1.60 per barrel, and the theoretical spread was $5.86 per barrel. From the perspective of internal - external spreads, the SC - Brent spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil was relatively weak under the background of OPEC + production increase. [25] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of December 19, the Brent monthly spread (01 - 03) was $0.65 per barrel, the previous value was $0.47; the WTI monthly spread (01 - 03) was $0.33 per barrel, the previous value was $0.36; the SC monthly spread (01 - 03) was - 4.6 yuan/barrel, the previous value was - 5 yuan/barrel. [28] 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of December 19, the SC - Brent spread continuous 1 was $0.27 per barrel, the previous value was $0.37 per barrel; the Brent - WTI spread continuous 1 was $3.66 per barrel, the previous value was $3..67 per barrel. [40] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - The cracking spreads and refining profits of crude oil in European, North American, Asia - Pacific, and Chinese markets all showed different degrees of decline or change. For example, in the European market, the cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to Brent crude oil all decreased. [53][55] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - In 2025, non - DoC liquid supply is expected to increase by about 1 million barrels per day year - on - year, with the US accounting for about half of the increase. In 2026, non - DoC liquid supply is expected to increase by 600,000 barrels per day year - on - year, mainly driven by new projects in Latin America and the Gulf of Mexico, increased US LNG production, and other factors. [89] 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - In 2025, global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day year - on - year, mainly driven by non - OECD regions. In 2026, global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day year - on - year, with OECD demand increasing by about 200,000 barrels per day and non - OECD demand increasing by more than 1.2 million barrels per day. [88] 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - The seasonal charts of US commercial crude oil weekly inventory (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil weekly inventory are provided. [82] 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - The seasonal charts of US crude oil weekly export volume and the types of ships used for US and Russian crude oil exports are provided. [84][86] 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - The report provides forecasts of global oil supply and demand in 2025 and 2026, showing a relatively healthy growth trend in oil demand and corresponding changes in supply. [88][89]

米兰是美联储内部最坚定支持降息的官员之一。在上周的美联储会议上，他投下反对票，主张降息50个 基点，而大多数同僚倾向于更小幅的25个基点降息。他的美联储任期将于1月31日结束。 截至发稿，纽约期银收涨3.34%，报67.395美元/盎司，本周累计上涨8.55%。现货白银价格收涨2.26%， 报67.04美元/盎司。 早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 现货白银价格盘中突破67美元/盎司 今天凌晨，现货白银价格突破67美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨2.38%。纽约期银日内涨幅达 3.00%。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："较温和的通胀数据对黄金和白银来说有点像'双刃剑'，它 有助于证明美联储'鸽'派轨迹的合理性，但也意味着它们作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力有所下降。" 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周五重申，由于通胀已降温，且货币政策需要抵消就业市场风险，美联储应降 息。 "就业市场正在放缓，如果继续沿着这个方向发展，而我们未能充分调整政策加以遏制，到2027年我们 将陷入困境。"米兰说。 2026年金价趋势性上涨动力仍在 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现"出色" 昨日，据媒体报道，特朗普正在推进美联储 ...

策调整以及地缘局势变化可能导致原油供给增量不及预期，并将减缓原油市场 过剩预期以及油价下行幅度，同时若宏观环境超预期修复，将给油价带来底部 支撑，叠加油价已经连续四年下跌，2026 年的原油表现可能会比 2025 年相对 更有韧性。 原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联 ...

类别 宏观贵金属周报 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 工业贵金属市场多头氛围浓厚 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国 11 月经济仍然偏弱 由于财政刺激退坡以及基数效应减弱等原因，2025 年 11 月中国经济增长动 能继续偏弱。2025 年 1-11 月份中国城镇固定资产投资累积 44.4 万亿元，累积同 比萎缩 2.6%，萎缩程度较 1-10 月份扩大 0.9 个百分点，主要受国际贸易紧张形 势与国内房地产周期下行的双重影响。其中制造业投资累积同比增长 1.9%，增速 较 1-10 月份放缓 0.8 个百分点，且显 ...

原油周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘RT要 01 | | （1）美国CPI数据超预期放缓。 | | --- | --- | | 市场焦点 | （2）俄乌和平方案谈判持续推进。 | | | （3）美委紧张关系加剧。 | 重点数据 （1）美国至12月12日当周EIA原油库存 -127.4万桶，预期-106.6万桶，前值-181.2万桶。 （2）美国至12月12日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -74.2万桶，前值30.8万桶。 （3）美国至12月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 24.9万桶，前值24.8万桶。 主要观点 本周原油整体延续偏弱运行的态势，美委紧张关系加剧引发地缘风险溢价，但市场缺乏上行的持续驱动，俄乌地 缘缓和预期升温叠加供应过剩的预期仍对盘面形成压制。一方面，美乌柏林会晤在对乌安全保障机制上取得了显著进 展，市场对俄乌达成停火协议的预期升温，另外一方面，OPEC+及美国的原油供应延续环比增长的趋势，进一步强化 市场供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold continues to be viewed as a safe haven for global investors, experiencing significant volatility following the release of the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, which fell to its lowest level since early 2021, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1][6][7]. Economic Indicators - The November CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in March [2][7]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.12%, which lowers the cost of holding gold [2][7]. - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, indicating that the rate-cutting cycle may be over, while the Bank of England reduced its benchmark rate from 4.00% to 3.75% [2][7]. - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations [2][7]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. imposed sanctions on 29 oil tankers and their management companies, targeting a "shadow fleet" involved in transporting Iranian oil and petroleum products [2][8]. - U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Issues is set to meet with officials from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey to discuss the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, amid concerns that both Israel and Hamas are delaying the implementation of the agreement [2][8]. Technical Analysis - The recent trading pattern of gold indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum, with the market showing signs of potential technical pullbacks [3][9]. - The daily chart suggests that gold may face resistance around the 4365-70 range, while support is being tested at the 4320 level [3][9]. - The hourly chart indicates a trend towards horizontal consolidation, but prolonged sideways movement increases the risk of a significant downward correction [3][9]. Trading Recommendations - Day traders should monitor short-term resistance around 4345-50 and support near 4310-05, with potential for further testing of the 4280-70 support zone if these levels are breached [4][9]. - Short positions may be considered if prices rebound to 4330-32, with a stop-loss above 4340 and a target around 4315-10 [4][9]. - Long positions could be attempted near 4305-00, but should be limited to short-term trades with a stop-loss at 4295 and a target of 4320 [4][9].