风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/13 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/12 | 美元/桶 | 61.95 | 61.02 | 1.52% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/12 | 美元/桶 | 64.96 | 63.91 | 1.64% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/9 | 美元/吨 | 569.00 | 554.50 | 2.61% | | 游 | | | | | | | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/5/9 | 美元/吨 | 671.50 | 666.50 | 0.75% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/9 | 美元/吨 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes is reported at 1302.62 points, a decrease of 5.5% compared to the previous period [1] - From May 5 to May 11, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 24.225 million tons, a decrease of 1.179 million tons week-on-week, with Australian shipments increasing by 0.28 million tons [1] - The total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports from May 5 to May 11 was 25.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.644 million tons week-on-week [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China has adjusted the soybean import estimate for 2024/2025 to 98.60 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons, but still below the previous year's level [1] - The USDA reported that as of May 8, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 426,077 tons, an increase from the previous week's revised figure of 333,654 tons [2] - The USDA's May report projected U.S. soybean production for 2025/2026 at 4.34 billion bushels, with an expected ending stock of 295 million bushels [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 13, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On May 12, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded after hitting a bottom, with a closing price of 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and an increase in positions of 11,751 lots. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in Central China remained unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash production continued to rise, and demand increased. However, the supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is becoming more significant. New production capacity will be put into operation, further increasing supply pressure [8]. - The supply side of the glass market is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Trading Data on May 12**: The SA505 contract opened at 1,276 yuan/ton, closed at 1,291 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.69%, with a position of 0.31 million lots, a decrease of 796 lots. The SA509 contract opened at 1,299 yuan/ton, closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 123.31 million lots, an increase of 11,751 lots. The FG505 contract opened at 1,044 yuan/ton, closed at 1,047 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.67%, with a position of 0.53 million lots, a decrease of 822 lots. The FG509 contract opened at 1,034 yuan/ton, closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.28%, with a position of 133.57 million lots, a decrease of 2,299 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The weekly production of soda ash in China reached 757,000 tons in the week of May 8, near the highest level this year, and the weekly operating load rate remained at 90%. As of May 8, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash in China remained at 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is significant. Although some production line maintenance plans may have an impact on the supply rhythm in May, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the oversupply situation [8]. - **Glass Market**: The supply side is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term due to cost and capacity limitations. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Industry News - The market price of baking soda in Henan is stable. Jinshan's baking soda plant is under maintenance, and downstream users maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. The mainstream ex-factory price of food-grade baking soda is estimated at 1,200 - 1,260 yuan/ton [10]. - In May 2025, the weighted order days of domestic soda ash manufacturers' sample enterprises were 14.6 days, basically flat month-on-month. The operating load of the soda ash industry decreased in May, and the supply of goods decreased, but downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing was not high, so new orders from soda ash manufacturers were average [10]. - Based on the period from 10:00 to 14:00 on the day, the average market price of 5mm large float glass in Shahe decreased by 0.21 yuan/square meter compared with the previous working day, with an average price of 14.77 yuan/square meter; the average price of 4.4mm small float glass decreased by 0.32 yuan/square meter, with an average price of 12.69 yuan/square meter. The Shahe float glass market continued to weaken over the weekend, and the futures price remained sluggish, with the market price center further moving down. Some spot-futures traders' shipments improved. The market basically stabilized today, and traders' selling prices were flexible [10]. - In April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month-on-month, and up 8.9% and 9.8% year-on-year. Domestic automobile sales were 2.073 million units, down 13.9% month-on-month and up 11.7% year-on-year; automobile exports were 517,000 units, up 2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, up 43.8% and 44.2% year-on-year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of the total sales of new vehicles [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [14][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation has improved with the Sino - US talks making progress and the NDRC improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and planning to launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan. For glass, on the supply side, the profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil has slightly increased due to falling raw material costs, and production remains stable. On the demand side, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and enterprise inventories have increased. The futures price is approaching the production cost, so cost support may work in the short term. For纯碱, the supply is decreasing slightly with some equipment maintenance, and downstream demand is lukewarm with more wait - and - see sentiment and small - scale destocking. It is recommended to temporarily observe both the 2509 contracts of纯碱 and glass [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the 纯碱 main contract is 1318 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1045 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The 纯碱 main contract's open interest is 1233186 lots, up 11751 lots; the glass main contract's open interest is 1335775 lots, down 2299 lots. The net position of the top 20 in 纯碱 is - 197814, up 1356; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 146540, up 43116. The 纯碱 exchange warehouse receipts are 3106 tons, down 237 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2380 tons, up 115 tons. The 9 - 1 spread of 纯碱 is 13 yuan, up 14 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 41 yuan, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of North China heavy 纯碱 is 1325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of Central China heavy 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light 纯碱 is 1335 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1116 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 纯碱 basis is 7 yuan, up 2 yuan; the glass basis is 71 yuan, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The 纯碱 plant operating rate is 87.74%, down 0.93 percentage points; the float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.61 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.52 million tons/year, down 0.26 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, down 3. The 纯碱 enterprise inventory is 170.07 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the glass enterprise inventory is 67560000 weight boxes, up 2571000 weight boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new real - estate construction area is 129964600 square meters, up 63824600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 130602700 square meters, up 42962700 square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank broadens the use scope of re - loans for affordable housing. There are housing purchase subsidies in Shanghai Yangpu, housing development plans in Beijing, and support for housing provident fund loans in Beijing. In April, the second - hand housing transactions in Dongguan increased by 36% year - on - year. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a meeting to support the development of the private economy. The average rent of 50 cities in April decreased slightly month - on - month. In April, the contracted sales amount of China Merchants Shekou was 14.764 billion yuan. In April, about 71.7 billion yuan of the newly issued 176.3 billion yuan special bonds were invested in the real - estate related fields. From January to April, the total transaction amount of the national foreclosed housing market was 83.14 billion yuan. Shanghai released the list of the fifth batch of residential land to be transferred this year. In April, the contract sales amount of Jianye Real Estate was 600 million yuan, down 20.2% year - on - year. As of April 30, 2025, the contract sales amount of Shimao Group in four months was about 9.07 billion yuan. In April, the contracted area of Shoukai Co., Ltd. was 108400 square meters, down 24.92% month - on - month [2]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（5 月 9 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.30%，收报 3342.00 点；深证 成指跌 0.69%，收报 10126.83 点；创业板指跌 0.87%，收报 2011.77 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11920 亿，较昨日 缩量 1014 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 9 日强势整理，收盘 3846.16，环比下跌 6.74。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 9 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1449.7 元，环比下跌 30.8。 5 月 9 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 878.1 元，环比下跌 16.4。 【豆粕】国际市场，美国农业部周度出口销售数据疲软，对华销售量几乎为零。美国农业部定于 5 月 12 日 公布月度供需报告，届时将对 2025/2026 年度全球及主要国家的供需情况作出首份预估，报告前市场预计新季美 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 客服产品系列•日评 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦化第二轮提涨被拒，看涨情绪有所回落，日产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, and the palm oil market is affected by the entry into the production - increasing season, with a weakening fundamental situation compared to other oils. The export situation of US soybeans is still under pressure, and the domestic supply of soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter is expected to be sufficient, which will continue to put pressure on the price. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the soybean oil main contract closed at 7786, with a price increase of 26 and a percentage increase of 0.34%. [2] - **Spread and Ratio - Spread**: The current and previous values of spreads and ratio - spreads for various futures are given, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil being 54 currently and 62 previously. [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures like BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are provided. For instance, BMD palm oil closed at 3795 ringgit/ton, with a price decrease of 94 and a percentage decrease of - 2.42%. [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: The current spot prices, percentage changes, and spot basis of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou 24° palm oil, etc. are shown. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8180, with a percentage increase of 0.12% and a spot basis of 394. [2] - **Spot Spread**: The current and previous values of spot spreads between different products are presented, like the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil being - 480 currently and - 550 previously. [2] 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current and previous values of import and crushing profits for products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. are given. For example, the current import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 769, and the previous value was - 838. [2] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for futures such as soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are provided. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 5,355, and the previous value was also 5,355. [2] 3.6 Industry Information and Comment - **Industry Information**: Malaysian palm oil export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, and a US private exporter reported a sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan. [3] - **Protein Meal Comment**: The night - session soybean meal was weak. Before the substantial adjustment of tariffs, the export situation of US soybeans is still under pressure. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the second quarter, which will put pressure on prices. [3] - **Oil Comment**: The night - session soybean and palm oils were weakly volatile, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. The domestic short - term supply of soy - based oils is tight, but the supply of imported soybeans in the second quarter is sufficient. The fundamental situation of palm oil is weaker than that of other oils. [3]

2025年05月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，正套离场 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：正套离场，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡有支撑 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油区间震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：现货小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：偏强运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：关税忧虑缓解内盘估值承压 | 24 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，短期仍有回弹趋势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘高低硫价差暂时小幅回撤 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：中美关税缓和，近月短期偏强；10-12反套轻仓持有 | 30 | | 短纤：短期震荡市， ...

2025.05.12-05.16 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 工业硅受到供需基本面不佳的影响，价格持续走低。尽管有部分企业减产， 但由于库存高企，去库速度缓慢，导致价格承压。下游需求如多晶硅、有 机硅和铝合金等行业的需求疲软，进一步压制了工业硅的价格。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处于下行通道中。 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在，建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 价格将继续承压，建议观望。激进的投资者可考虑少 量买入看跌期权。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至20 ...

硅铁期货主力合约涨超3%，现报5724元/吨。 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hotspots preview, focusing on significant events and data releases that may impact the futures market, including Sino-US economic and trade talks, various economic data from the US and other countries, and reports on agricultural products and crude oil markets [2][3] Key Events and Data Releases May 12 - Sino-US economic and trade talks will release a joint statement. The talks were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the monthly report on the supply and demand situation of agricultural products, which may affect related agricultural futures prices [7] May 13 - The USDA will release its monthly supply and demand report, which may impact related agricultural futures prices [8] - The ZEW will announce Germany's May economic sentiment index, with an expected value of 6.9 and a previous value of -14 [9] - The US Department of Labor will release the US April CPI. The expected unadjusted CPI annual rate is 2.4%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate is 2.8% [10] May 14 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the first ten days of May [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending May 9. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [12] - OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13] May 15 - The People's Bank of China will release April financial statistics and social financing scale data. The expected new RMB loans are 765 billion yuan, and the expected growth rate of M2 is 7.5% [15] - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16] - The EU will announce the revised value of the Eurozone's Q1 GDP. The expected seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly rate is 1.2% [17] - The US Department of Commerce will release April retail sales. The expected monthly rate is 0.1%, and the core retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% [18] - The US Department of Labor will release April PPI. The expected annual rate is 2.8%, and the core PPI annual rate is 3.4% [19] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, with an expected value of 225,000 [20] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give an opening speech and speak on the Fed's monetary policy assessment [21] - The Federal Reserve will release US April industrial output. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% [22] - The National Energy Administration will release April全社会用电量 data, which may affect related futures prices [23] May 16 - Japan's Cabinet Office will announce the preliminary value of Q1 GDP. The expected seasonally adjusted quarterly rate is -0.1%, and the annualized quarterly rate is -0.2% [24] - The US will release April building permits and new housing starts. The expected annualized total of building permits is 1.368 million, and new housing starts is 1.45 million [25] - The University of Michigan will announce the preliminary value of the US May consumer confidence index, with an expected value of 53 [26]