新华财经北京1月1日电（王菁）2025年的我国国债市场，是在宏观叙事频繁切换、多空逻辑激烈博弈中展开的深度校准。这一年，市场在"稳增长"与"防风 险"、"强政策"与"弱现实"的张力间，走出了一条独特的路径：一级市场以创纪录的供给规模和前置的发行节奏，有力支撑了积极的财政政策；二级市场以 10年期国债收益率为代表在狭窄区间内演绎了一场高频率的"折返跑"，全年波动中枢温和下移。 随着多方面政策升级优化的加持下，国债市场在扩容中深化了韧性，在波动中重塑了平衡，不仅高效完成了财政筹资与流动性供给的核心使命，更在服务国 家战略、畅通货币政策传导中发挥了不可替代的枢纽作用。 一级市场：稳健扩容与结构优化，财政融资主渠道功能凸显 2025年，国债一级市场在"积极的财政政策适度加力、提质增效"的基调下，实现了历史性的跨越。其核心特征体现为供给规模有所放量、发行节奏科学前 置、期限结构持续优化，精准有力地保障了国家重大战略实施的资金需求。 ——发行规模创历史新高，中央加杠杆支撑稳增长。据新华财经梳理，2025年全年国债发行总额达到160,140.20亿元，较2024年的124,748.31亿元同比大幅增 长28.37% ；全年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan and its impact on the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of the ongoing internationalization of the yuan and the changing global economic landscape. Group 1: Yuan Appreciation and Economic Impact - The offshore yuan exchange rate reached a high of 7.43 in April 2025 and strengthened to break the 7.0 mark by the end of the year, marking a significant recovery since the trade war lows [1][4] - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as a reflection of China's economic resilience amidst external pressures, particularly from the US trade protectionism [1][6] - The current level of the yuan is not considered "seriously undervalued," but there are some factors contributing to its perceived undervaluation, including structural issues in the domestic economy [5][9] Group 2: Structural Factors Influencing Yuan Valuation - The dual nature of the yuan's exchange rate, reflecting both real economic conditions and financial market dynamics, complicates the assessment of its valuation [5][6] - Domestic market segmentation and competition have led to price suppression, contributing to the undervaluation of the yuan [7][9] - The overall price level in China has improved, indicating that the yuan is not as undervalued as previously thought, countering claims from Western nations [4][5] Group 3: Internationalization of the Yuan - The article emphasizes the importance of the yuan's appreciation for its internationalization, suggesting that a stable and gradually appreciating yuan could enhance its role as a global reserve currency [25][30] - The current global economic environment, characterized by a weakening dollar and rising inflation in Western countries, presents an opportunity for the yuan to gain traction as a safe asset [12][25] - The potential for the yuan to become a credible alternative to the US dollar is linked to China's ability to provide stable and reliable financial assets, particularly in the context of increasing skepticism towards US debt [27][30] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The article suggests that while the yuan can appreciate, it should do so at a controlled pace to avoid market distortions and excessive speculation [22][23] - Internal reforms aimed at improving wage levels and price structures are recommended as a means to support the yuan's appreciation sustainably [23][24] - The need for China to enhance its soft power and narrative in the global market is highlighted as crucial for gaining pricing power and furthering the yuan's internationalization [34][35]

赞比亚央行12月31日在回复电邮提问时表示，使用人民币进行相关支付始于10月。赞比亚当局是非洲首 个确认接受以人民币缴纳矿业税费的政府。赞比亚是非洲第二大铜生产国。 在推动人民币国际化的进程中，非洲正日益成为关键战场，尤其是在对中国负债较重的国家。肯尼亚在 2025年将其欠中国的美元贷款置换成人民币贷款。埃塞俄比亚也开始就类似安排展开磋商，赞比亚表示 将考虑效仿。 在赞比亚的中国矿企开始以人民币支付特许权使用费和税款，这是非洲大陆对人民币接受度不断提高的 最新迹象。 "很大一部分铜出口销往中国，而中国矿业公司从对华出口中获得的付款，部分甚至全部已以人民币结 算，"赞比亚央行表示。"赞比亚央行将外汇储备多元化和增加储备作为关键目标，购入人民币有助于实 现这一目标。" ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 人民币国际化进程在非洲的推进势头正愈发凸显。据美媒彭博社12月31日报道，在非洲第二大铜矿生产 国赞比亚，中资矿山运营商已开始使用人民币缴纳矿区开采使用费及税款。赞比亚央行（BoZ）周三在 邮件回复中证实，人民币结算缴费模式已于10月正式落地。 报道指出，赞比亚由此成为非洲首个确认接受人民币支付矿业税款的国家，此为人民币在非洲大陆接受 度持续提升的最新佐证，"非洲正逐渐成为推进人民币国际化的关键阵地"。 如今政策进一步优化，矿企可自主选择向赞比亚央行出售美元或人民币，用于缴纳税款。为配合这一政 策调整，该央行已于上月开始公布人民币兑克瓦查的官方汇率。 国际律师事务所Dentons赞比亚分所的高级合伙人约瑟夫·贾拉西（Joseph Jalasi）分析认为，"人民币能 否被市场实际接纳，将取决于赞比亚央行的储备管理政策、定价机制以及对市场的操作指引。" 据新华社早前报道，2025年5月，赞比亚中国银行（简称"赞中行"）在赞比亚首都卢萨卡举办人民币国 际化推介会。这家成立于1997年的银行，是中国在非洲设立的第一家商业银行，在2015年被中国人民银 行和赞比亚央行确定为赞比亚人民币清算行。 ...

你或许没想到，世界顶级的金融对决，居然悄悄发生在咱们看不见的账本背后。 有人说，中国手里的美债能砸晕美国，但现在的玩法早就不是你想象的那种"砸场子"，而是一场让美国高管都得瞪大眼睛的花式操作。 这年头，谁还按套路出牌？ 专家们最近都在讨论一个现象：财经新闻天天吵得你头大，真正"大动静"反而低调得出奇。 其实，金融圈子里最狠的动作，往往都不是用喊出来的。 你看，华尔街精英们，前阵子还没回过神来，数据一翻，才发现中国已经把持有的7800亿美元美债，变着法子"流转"掉了。 这不是简单抛售，根本没人敢接盘那么大的量。 更妙的是，这一切完全在美国自己定的规则里完成，连美国财政部都挑不出毛病来。 不少朋友问我，这事儿到底有啥门道？ 大家都怕踩塌地板。 但中国玩出了新花样，"三角置换"成了金融圈的热词。 其实最大的变化，就是中国用卢森堡的SPV，也就是特殊目的实体，把美债打包流转，合规合法，像走红毯一样把钱变了个身。 你能想象吗？ 美国人引以为傲的金融规则，反倒成了中国拆解美元霸权的"工具箱"。 这背后的逻辑，真是让人拍案叫绝。 美国的债务账本可不乐观。 2025年，美国联邦债务突破了38万亿美元，每个美国人摊上11万美元 ...

在赞比亚的中国矿企开始以人民币支付特许权使用费和税款，标志着人民币在非洲大陆的接受度进一步 提升，凸显中国在非洲金融领域的影响力扩大。 美东时间31日周三，据媒体报道，赞比亚央行在回复电邮提问时表示，使用人民币进行相关支付始于10 月。非洲第二大铜生产国赞比亚成为非洲首个确认接受以人民币缴纳矿业税费的政府。 这一变化反映了人民币国际化方面取得的实质性进展。新的支付机制将帮助赞比亚实现外汇储备多元 化，同时以更具成本效益的方式偿还对华债务。 赞比亚储备多元化推动政策调整 中国矿企加大投资力度 矿企现在可以选择向赞比亚央行出售美元或人民币来缴税。Dentons当地分支机构高级合伙人Joseph Jalasi表示，"人民币的实际接受程度将取决于赞比亚央行的储备管理政策、定价机制和对市场的操作指 导"。 2024年，加拿大矿企First Quantum Minerals Ltd.和Barrick Mining Corp.在赞比亚的铜产量约占该国总产 量的三分之二。而中国有色矿业集团等中国运营商正投入数十亿美元提升铜产量。中资企业扩大投资恰 逢2025年全球铜价大涨。伦铜全年涨超40%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅。 ...

外汇研究 2025.12.27 如何看待年末人民币汇率的加速升值 李刘阳，CFA 分析员 施杰 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523110005 SFC CE Ref：BSB843 liuyang.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080525030001 jie3.shi@cicc.com.cn 近期离岸人民币汇率升破 7.0 关口 人民币汇率在 11 月下旬以来连续升值，近期持续刷新年内新高，离岸人民币汇率升值突破 7.0，升值 速率有所加速。12 月 25 日，离岸人民币汇率升破 7.0，创下 2024 年 9 月后新高，在岸人民币汇率 距离 7.0 关口亦只有一步之遥，并创下 2023 年 5 月后新高。 我们认为，美元贬值和季节性因素或是人民币当前升值的直接推动力，不过货币当局适度抑制了汇率 升值的速率。整体来看，我们认为人民币汇率年末的升值行情并不意外，不过幅度略超预期，首要因 素或是美元跌幅较大，叠加季节性因素共振，推动了人民币汇率短期内的较快升值。 美元贬值或是直接因素 美元指数自 11 月下旬以来连续走弱，截至 12 月 25 日，其近一个月下跌幅度逾 2%。我们认为 ...

Summary of Digital Renminbi Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Digital Renminbi** and its transition from version 1.0 (cash-type) to version 2.0 (deposit-type) [1][2][5] Key Points and Arguments Transition to Version 2.0 - Digital Renminbi has upgraded to version 2.0, transitioning from M0 (cash) to M1 (deposit currency), which includes interest-bearing features [1][2] - This upgrade aims to enhance the financial attributes and attractiveness of Digital Renminbi, allowing commercial banks to manage asset-liability operations and provide security equivalent to deposits [1][2] Challenges in Promotion - The promotion of Digital Renminbi faces dual challenges: insufficient user enthusiasm and lack of motivation from banks [1][3][6] - Despite 230 million personal wallets opened, the active account ratio remains low, and users do not perceive a strong necessity to adopt Digital Renminbi due to the maturity of third-party payment systems [3][6] Policy Upgrade and Core Changes - The core of the policy upgrade is to convert Digital Renminbi into an interest-bearing asset, incentivizing banks to promote it actively [1][7] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to facilitate the transition from M0 to M1 to enhance the international competitiveness of the Renminbi [7] Impact on Commercial Banks - The upgrade provides new opportunities for commercial banks, as the Digital Renminbi will now be treated as a liability, encouraging banks to promote it more vigorously [4][5][8] - The new model allows banks to earn interest spreads, enhancing their commercial momentum [8] Investment Opportunities - The transition is expected to create investment opportunities in the payment industry, particularly for IT system upgrades and hardware manufacturers [3][4][5][11] - The focus on cross-border payments is highlighted as a significant area for future development, with partnerships with countries like Singapore and those along the Belt and Road Initiative being crucial [10][15] Future Focus Areas - Future attention will be directed towards improving cross-border payment efficiency, which currently suffers from high costs and low efficiency [10][15] - The upcoming detailed action plans and specific measures will be critical for the successful implementation of the new framework [10] Additional Important Insights - The Digital Renminbi's evolution signifies a shift from a payment tool to a wealth management platform, enhancing user engagement and allowing banks to regain control over payment processes [14] - The advantages of Digital Renminbi in cross-border payments include significantly reduced transaction times and costs, improved transparency, and compliance with regulatory requirements [15]

Core Viewpoint - The claim that financial assets in Hainan will become offshore assets post the island's closure is inaccurate, as all financial activities must comply with China's regulatory framework [1][2] Group 1: Financial System Developments - Hainan's financial system is expected to enhance cross-border financial services, supporting both domestic and foreign enterprises [1] - The growth rate of various loans in Hainan is projected to be around 11.5%, significantly higher than the national average [1] - The cumulative business volume of multi-functional free trade accounts has surpassed 300 billion RMB, with an increased coverage for benefiting enterprises [1] Group 2: Future Financial Policies - Hainan aims to build a distinctive financial system for the free trade port, focusing on the implementation of existing financial policies to support high-quality economic development by 2026 [2] - New financial opening policies are being planned to promote the internationalization of the RMB and enhance the openness of financial institutions, products, systems, management, and talent in Hainan [2] - Risk prevention remains a priority, ensuring that financial operations are both flexible and well-regulated to avoid systemic risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the appreciation of the RMB against the USD is seen as a sign of China's strength, while its depreciation against the Euro raises questions about the motives behind the pressure from the West [1][3] - Major investment banks suggest that if the RMB does not appreciate, it could disrupt global balance, reminiscent of the Plaza Accord from 40 years ago [5][6] - The strategy of competitive devaluation by the West aims to make the USD and Euro cheaper, forcing the RMB to appreciate, which could harm China's export competitiveness [6][8] Group 2 - Despite the RMB's appreciation against the USD, it has depreciated against the Euro, leading to a dual exchange rate scenario that allows Chinese companies to pivot their exports towards Europe and ASEAN [12][14] - Data shows that from January to November 2025, China's exports to the US decreased by nearly 19%, while exports to the EU increased by 8.1%, indicating a shift in market focus [14][23] - The Chinese government has intervened to prevent price wars and encouraged companies to raise prices, allowing them to recover losses from currency fluctuations [18][19] Group 3 - The situation highlights a struggle for global pricing power, with the Chinese government taking a strong stance against price cuts [19][21] - Despite Western pressures, Chinese manufacturers are finding ways to maintain their market presence and profitability, as evidenced by a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion [23][25] - The US and Europe are increasingly reliant on Chinese goods, as they face challenges in rebuilding their own supply chains, leading to a paradox where they need Chinese products despite imposing tariffs [21][27] Group 4 - China holds significant advantages, including a complete industrial supply chain, substantial foreign exchange reserves of $3.3 trillion, and the accelerating internationalization of the RMB [27][29][31] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of stable exchange rates that serve the real economy rather than merely showcasing national strength [31]