Economic Overview - In June, the economy showed weak demand but strong production, with GDP growth at 5.3% for the first half of the year, easing pressure to achieve a full-year target of 5%[2] - Domestic demand is under significant pressure, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments continuing to decline, while consumption growth has also slowed[5] - Export growth has increased due to a "rush to export" effect, providing some support to the economy[2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth for January to June was 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, with real estate investment down 11.2%[9] - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to reduced subsidy effects and a decline in dining consumption[16] - Real estate sales growth continued to decline, with a 3.5% drop in sales and a 6.2% decrease in funding sources[12] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's monetary policy emphasizes "stabilizing prices," with liquidity expected to remain balanced and slightly loose[3] - The average interbank repo rates have decreased, with DR007 fluctuating within 10 basis points above the policy rate[3] - The central bank conducted a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operation in mid-July, indicating a loose monetary stance[4] Bond Market Strategy - Bond yields have slightly adjusted due to rising stock markets and marginal increases in funding rates, but rates are unlikely to rise significantly without improvements in the economic fundamentals[4] - The bond market is expected to experience low volatility, with strategies focusing on high-entry points for bond purchases[6] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI growth turned positive in June at 0.1%, driven by rising industrial consumer goods prices, particularly oil[46] - PPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6%, influenced by falling energy prices and pressures on export prices[52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products in the context of the bond market, highlighting the stability of short-term interest rates and the potential for credit bonds to outperform interest rate bonds in the near future [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Review of Fixed Income Product Returns - In the past month, the bond market experienced low volatility with positive returns across various fixed income products. The leading performance was observed in rights-embedded bond funds, followed by medium to long-term bond funds [3][8]. - As of July 17, the returns for different products over the past month were: rights-embedded bond funds at 0.89% (previously 0.54%), medium-term bond funds at 0.22% (previously 0.31%), short-term bond funds at 0.19% (unchanged), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.17% (previously 0.15%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][8]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has shown low volatility with mixed performance between short and long-term bonds. The market sentiment improved due to "anti-involution" policies and the delayed imposition of tariffs by the U.S., which bolstered optimistic expectations [10][11]. - The liquidity in the banking sector was relatively relaxed, with the central bank's actions leading to a slight decrease in short-term interest rates. The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to 1.63% [11][15]. Industry Events Tracking - On July 11, the National Financial Supervision Administration released the "Financial Institutions Product Suitability Management Measures," effective from February 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing consumer protection and regulating financial institutions' suitability management [37]. Outlook for the Bond Market - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate of deposit rates, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [1][31]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to perform better than interest rate bonds, with a focus on maintaining a balanced duration strategy and considering high-grade long-term credit bonds for potential gains [1][40]. Fixed Income Product Strategy and Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products is advisable, while for conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended [40][41]. - For more aggressive investors, the article suggests considering fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, with strategies such as quantitative neutral, index enhancement, and multi-asset approaches [42].

央行公告称，7月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.4%，投标量4505亿元，中标量4505亿元。数据显示，当日900亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投 放3605亿元。资金面整体平衡，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率小幅下行，目前位于1.46%位置。七天 质押式回购利率则下行不足1bp，现位于1.52%位置。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年期同 业存单最新成交在1.62%附近，较上日基本持平。税期走款接近尾声，央行逆回购投放呵护，预计税期 过后，流动性有望回归平稳偏宽局面。 【市场表现】 【操作建议】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.02%报120.730元，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.885元， 5年期主力合约涨0.02%报106.045元，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.440元。银行间主要利率债收益率涨 跌不一。截至17：00，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率持平于1.8820%，10年期国开债"25国开 10"收益率持平于1.7350%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.1bp报1.6600%，2年期国债 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 17, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 450.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.4%, with a total bid and winning amount of 450.5 billion yuan. The net injection for the day was calculated to be 360.5 billion yuan after accounting for 90 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overall funding situation remains balanced, with the overnight pledged repo rate for deposit-taking institutions slightly declining to 1.46%. The 7-day pledged repo rate has decreased by less than 1 basis point, currently at 1.52%. In the U.S., the latest overnight financing rate stands at 4.37% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.62%, showing little change from the previous day [6]. Group 4: Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds have shown mixed movements. The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a slight increase for most maturities, with the 10-year and 5-year contracts rising by 0.02%, while the 30-year contract fell by 0.02% [11]. Group 5: Government Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue several government bonds on July 24, including a 30-year bond of 83 billion yuan, a new 1-year bond of 124 billion yuan, and a 5-year bond of 108 billion yuan [12]. Group 6: Climate Bonds - A report from the Climate Bonds Initiative indicates that Hong Kong's issuance of green, social, and sustainable development bonds, as well as sustainability-linked bonds, is expected to exceed 43.1 billion USD in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.2% and accounting for 45% of the Asian international GSS+ bond market [12]. Group 7: Corporate Developments - Postal Savings Bank has invested 10 billion yuan to establish China Post Investment, completing the AIC layout for the six major state-owned banks [17]. - China Construction Bank Financial Leasing plans to issue 2 billion yuan in financial bonds, with an option for an additional 500 million yuan in oversubscription [17]. - Longfor Group's main task for the second half of the year remains focused on inventory reduction [17].

资金流入方面，Wind数据显示，30年国债ETF最新资金净流入5865.94万元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日 内有3日资金净流入，合计"吸金"19.70亿元。 截至2025年7月17日 14:16，30年国债ETF(511090)多空胶着，最新报价124.81元。流动性方面，30年国 债ETF盘中换手23.02%，成交41.57亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至7月16日，30年国债ETF近1 周日均成交69.02亿元。 规模方面，Wind数据显示，30年国债ETF最新规模达180.45亿元，创近1月新高。份额方面，30年国债 ETF最新份额达1.45亿份，创近1月新高。 申万宏源研究固定收益首席分析师认为，债市仍在利多通道，近期债市调整更多由风险偏好与资产比价 效应驱动，预计债市调整时间和空间均较为有限。后续10Y国债突破前低的催化因素包括新的一轮降准 降息、央行重启国债买入等等，现阶段而言，风险偏好回升和资产比价效应是制约长债利率下行的主要 因素。虽然信用债行情可能告一段落，但是货币政策宽松基调叠加实体融资依然不强，债市6-8月依然 在做多窗口期，债市节奏或向利率债切换，建议保持久期等待利多兑现。 30年 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is currently facing adjustment pressure, with yields generally rising; from July 7 to July 16, the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increased by 2 basis points (bp) and 3 bp to 1.66% and 1.87%, respectively [1] - The recent adjustment in stock dividend rates has alleviated the pressure on bond market valuations, making the risk-reward ratio more favorable; the dividend yield of the CSI 300 index dropped from an average of 3.47% in May to 3% on July 14 [1] - The liquidity environment is relatively stable, with social financing growth expected to peak around 9.0% in July before trending down to approximately 8.2% by year-end, which limits disturbances to the bond market [2] Group 2 - The recent tightening of the funding environment has led to profit-taking in the equity market, causing credit spreads in certain bonds to widen; for instance, from July 7 to July 14, the credit spreads for 5-year secondary bonds AA+/AAA- and 3-year local government bonds AA/AA+ widened by 2.3 bp/1.4 bp and 2.0 bp/3.0 bp, respectively [3] - Despite the current adjustments, the core logic of secondary bonds remains intact, as the "amplifier" property of interest rate fluctuations persists in a liquidity easing environment [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.11%, and ChiNext Index up 0.36% as of midday trading [1] - The total trading volume in the three major markets reached 927 billion yuan, a decrease of 169.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond futures market exhibited mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down 0.08% and the 10-year main contract down 0.02% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时, 511130) saw significant trading activity, with a transaction volume exceeding 1.4 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 15% [1] - A report indicated that supply pressure in mid to late July may prompt the central bank to strengthen its support for the bond market, suggesting a potential recovery window [1] Funding Conditions - The funding environment is expected to face pressure due to a peak in certificate of deposit and government bond supply in mid-July, alongside tax payments [2] - The net financing scale for government bonds in July is projected to be around 1.6 trillion yuan, with a cumulative net payment of 400 billion yuan in the first two weeks [2] - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) are expected to maintain a net injection, with DR007 rates likely to stay around 1.5% [2] Market Sentiment and Risks - Factors unfavorable to the bond market include a sustained increase in equity risk appetite and high bond market congestion [3] - Conversely, the bond market may benefit from a recovery in odds after market adjustments, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields expected to stabilize around 1.7% and 1.9% respectively [3] - The central bank's supportive stance on liquidity is anticipated to remain firm, especially with ongoing supply pressures in late July [3] ETF Specifics - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时, 511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market [4] - It tracks the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index," reflecting the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4] - The ETF has a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes, which is a point of interest for investors [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 342.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, with a total net injection of 173.5 billion yuan for the day [1] - Liquidity has tightened, with overnight pledged repo rates rising over 10 basis points to 1.53%, and 7-day pledged repo rates increasing over 3 basis points to 1.56% [3] - The yield on major interbank bonds has collectively declined [8] Group 2: Real Estate Market Insights - In the first half of the year, the GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, with a quarterly growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2 [12] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with a 16.4% reduction in the decline of funds received by real estate developers compared to the previous year [13] - New residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with variations across cities [14] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan of 91-day discount treasury bonds on July 16 [18] - The national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year [18] - Recent developments in the bond market include restructuring efforts by companies like Baolong Real Estate and CIFI Holdings [18]

Group 1: Report Overview - Research Report Title: "Year-end Social Financing Growth Rate May Gradually Peak, Bond Market Shows Odds - Commentary on June 2025 Financial Data" [1][4] - Release Date: July 15, 2025 [7] Group 2: Core Views - In June 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of outstanding social financing was +8.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points. Credit growth was strong at the end of the quarter, and government bonds continued to provide support. The year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 were 4.6% and 8.3% respectively, both showing month-on-month increases [2][4]. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, as banks focus on project reserves in the fourth quarter and the issuance of government bonds in the first half is almost complete, the growth rate of outstanding social financing may gradually peak. It is estimated that the annual social financing growth rate will reach a high of around 9.0% in July - August and then gradually decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year [8]. - With the central bank's relatively loose policy stance and the social financing growth rate peaking, the bond market lacks a basis for a deep correction. After the recent adjustment, the bond market has shown odds, and it is recommended to actively allocate when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 1.65% [8]. Group 3: Credit Analysis - In June 2025, new credit was approximately 2.24 trillion yuan, higher than 2.13 trillion yuan in the same period last year. Banks increased credit投放 at the end of the semi - annual period, and the ban on "manual interest supplementation" in the first half of 2024 led to a relatively low base for corporate loans [8]. - Corporate loans: In June, corporate loans increased by about 1.77 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.14 trillion yuan. Short - term corporate loans and medium - to - long - term corporate loans increased by 1.16 trillion yuan and 1.01 trillion yuan respectively year - on - year, while bill financing decreased by about 0.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year reduction of about 0.37 trillion yuan [8]. - Household loans: In June, household loans increased by about 0.60 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 267 billion yuan. Short - term and medium - to - long - term household loans both showed slight year - on - year increases, driven by the "618" e - commerce promotion and the summer vacation [8]. Group 4: Social Financing Analysis - In June 2025, the increment of social financing was about 4.20 trillion yuan, mainly supported by on - balance - sheet financing and government bonds. On - balance - sheet financing increased by about 2.39 trillion yuan, and government bonds increased by about 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.50 trillion yuan [8]. - In July, as it is a season - starting month with characteristics of a "small credit month" and there may be short - term loan maturity pressure, but government bonds are expected to continue to support social financing growth [8]. Group 5: Monetary Analysis - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both increased month - on - month. Resident and corporate deposits increased by about 2.47 trillion yuan and 1.78 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of about 0.33 trillion yuan and 0.78 trillion yuan [8]. - The growth of resident and corporate deposits at the end of the quarter was due to the low base of corporate deposits last year and seasonal factors. Fiscal expenditures at the end of the quarter transferred fiscal deposits to resident and corporate deposits, and the return of wealth management products to the balance sheet also supported deposit data [8].

Market Overview - The bond market showed slight recovery on July 15, with government bond futures rising across the board, supported by stable economic data [1] - The average yield on interbank cash bonds fell by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan into the market, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures were as follows: 30-year contract rose by 0.47% to 120.760, 10-year contract increased by 0.18% to 108.890, 5-year contract up by 0.13% to 106.025, and 2-year contract up by 0.04% to 102.418 [2] - Major interbank bond yields turned downward, with the 7-year bond yield decreasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.595% and the 10-year bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.657% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.40 basis points to 4.433% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up by 1 basis point to 1.58% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 2 basis points to 3.430% [4] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank issued financial bonds with yields below market estimates, with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4996%, 1.5524%, and 1.6815% respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, injecting 342.5 billion yuan into the market [6] - The Shibor rates for overnight and short-term products increased, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [6] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [7] - In June, 14 out of 70 major cities saw new residential prices increase month-on-month, with notable price changes in cities like Changsha and Shanghai [8] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that export pressures may rise in the second half of the year, while Huatai Securities highlighted that the bond market remains crowded with potential short-term volatility [9] - Xingzheng Securities indicated that the bond bull market remains intact, with further room for long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields to reach new lows in Q3 [9]