Group 1 - The International Financial Association warns that the increase in US debt could trigger a global bond market crisis, as borrowing costs in some countries are linked to US Treasury yields [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasizes that the US will not default on its debt and urges Congress to raise the debt ceiling to avoid global economic turmoil, dismissing claims of a collapse in the US bond market [1] - The US April trade deficit narrowed to $87.6 billion, significantly lower than expected, due to a sharp decline in goods imports [5] Group 2 - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizumi plans to visit the US for trade negotiations, with market expectations that a deal may be reached this month [3] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate a worsening supply-demand situation for ultra-long-term bonds, leading to rising interest rates and tightening market liquidity [4] - The US manufacturing PMI for May dropped to 48.5, the lowest since November 2024, with sales cost inflation reaching its highest level since late 2022 [4] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials express that current inflation data is favorable, with limited direct impact from tariffs on the economy, and anticipate a potential decrease in interest rates over the next 12 to 18 months [1] - The Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE price index rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the smallest increase in over four years, while "super core inflation" fell to its lowest level in four years [4]

Core Insights - The life insurance premium income has shown signs of recovery in the first four months of 2025, with a total of 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [1][3] - April 2025 saw a significant increase in life insurance premiums, reaching 287.9 billion yuan, which is an 11.6% year-on-year increase, indicating a "small spring" for the industry [1][4] Group 1: Premium Growth Factors - The recovery in life insurance premiums is attributed to the continuous revival of individual insurance channels and strong demand for savings-type insurance products due to declining deposit rates [1][4] - The insurance companies have actively adjusted their product structures to meet market demands, with a focus on the launch of dividend and annuity products in April [4][5] Group 2: Future Outlook - The adjustment of preset interest rates is expected to be the biggest variable affecting premium growth in the coming quarters [5][6] - The current low deposit rates provide a relative advantage for insurance products, making them attractive for consumers seeking long-term stable returns [5][6] - It is anticipated that life insurance premiums will maintain steady growth, but the growth rate may be limited due to the downward adjustment of preset interest rates [6]

| 贵金属日评20250530: 联邦上诉法院暂停执行停征关税,日本前官员暗示已暂停抛售美债 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-28 | 2025-05-23 | 收盘价 | 772. 28 | 764. 32 | 780. 10 | -7.96 | -15.78 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 210848.00 | -79.564.00 | 250594.00 | 330158.00 | 39, 746. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 195076.00 | 199056.00 | 220512. 00 | -25, 436.00 | -3.980.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

美联储表示，鲍威尔在会面中没有讨论对货币政策的预期，只是强调政策路径将完全取决于未来的经济 数据以及这些数据对经济前景的影响。鲍威尔强调，他本人及联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的同事将 根据法律规定，制定旨在支持最大就业和物价稳定的货币政策，并且 所有决策都将基于仔细、客观、 非政治化的分析。 白宫方面表示，特朗普在与鲍威尔自其就任总统以来的首次面对面会晤中，敦促鲍威尔降低利率。白宫 新闻秘书莱维特周四在简报会上表示， 特朗普对鲍威尔表示，他认为美联储主席未能降息是一个错误 的决策。 莱维特表示，这一决定让我们在经济上处于相对于其他国家的劣势，总统对此一直非常直言不讳，不论 是公开场合还是——现在我可以透露——私下场合也是如此。两人并未讨论特朗普是否会寻求罢免鲍威 尔的问题。 从美联储发布的通稿来看，面对特朗普降息的呼声，鲍威尔依然选择了坚守美联储的独立性。 美东时间周四，美股主要股指高开低走小幅收涨，截止收盘，道指涨0.28%，纳指涨0.39%，标普500指 数涨0.4%，大型科技股多数上涨，亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉涨幅不足1%，英伟达涨超3%，博通涨超 1%。半导体板块涨幅居前，美国像素涨超6%，微芯科技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor Hawkesby indicated that a rate cut in July is not guaranteed, and the official cash rate can follow various adjustment paths depending on data [1] Group 1 - The possibility of a rate cut in July is uncertain and not predetermined [1] - The official cash rate can be adjusted through multiple pathways based on incoming data [1]

美联储准备等待经济前景进一步明朗化 金十数据5月29日讯，美联储会议纪要显示，美联储官员普遍认为，经济不确定性加剧是他们耐心调整 利率的理由。政策制定者判断，自3月份会议以来，失业率和通胀上升的风险都有所上升，主要是由于 关税的潜在影响。这种情况可能会使美联储稳定物价和充分就业的目标相互矛盾。最新公布的会议纪要 称，"与会者一致认为，鉴于经济增长和劳动力市场依然稳固，且当前的货币政策适度紧缩，FOMC有 条件等待通胀和经济活动前景更加明朗。""与会者一致认为，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，因此在 政府政策一系列变化的净经济影响变得更加清晰之前，采取谨慎态度是合适的。"会议纪要突显出美联 储官员愿意在一段时间内维持利率不变，因华盛顿的政策变化给经济前景蒙上了阴影。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Local commercial banks are following the trend of national banks by gradually lowering their deposit rates, which diminishes their previous interest rate advantage over national banks [1] Summary by Category Deposit Rate Adjustments - Various local commercial banks are reducing their deposit rates in line with national banks [1] - The new deposit rates for Beijing Bank, effective from May 27, are as follows: 1-year at 1.15%, 2-year at 1.20%, 3-year at 1.30%, and 5-year at 1.35% [1] - The adjusted rates for Beijing Bank are now consistent with those of several joint-stock banks, such as Everbright Bank and Citic Bank, indicating a loss of competitive edge in deposit rates [1]

新华财经北京5月26日电（刘润榕）人民银行26日开展3820亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与 此前持平；鉴于当日有1545亿元7期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放2275亿元。 在央行加码流动性投放的背景下，资金面延续渐进修复趋势，尽管资金利率整体呈下行态势，全周平均 资金价格较前一周有所抬升。周一至周四资金价格逐步下台阶，隔夜资金利率修复至1.4%-1.5%区间， DR001下行15BP至1.48%，R001下行13BP至1.53%；7天资金价格同样降至1.5%水平，DR007、R007分 别下行7、5BP，至1.57%、1.58%。周五在特别国债发行和税期走款首日的影响下，资金面边际收敛， DR001、R001单日均上行9BP，分别至1.57%、1.61%，7天资金利率同样抬升，DR007、R007分别升至 1.59%、1.63%。 本周（5月26-30日）资金面，税期叠加跨月，季节性因素影响或占上峰，在银行负债端仍有压力的背景 下，资金面平稳还需依赖央行呵护。 一是，税期叠加跨月，资金面或将边际趋紧。26日为税期走款最后一日，又逢7天资金可跨月（叠加端 午假期），或放大利率上行幅度。 二是，逆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in mortgage rates in Guangzhou, despite expectations of a rate cut by the central bank, reflects banks' strategies to maintain profitability while navigating market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Mortgage Rate Adjustments - Several banks in Guangzhou have adjusted the first-home mortgage rate from LPR minus 60 basis points to minus 50 basis points, raising the effective rate from 3% to 3.1% [3][4]. - This adjustment is a preemptive move by banks to protect their profit margins, especially as the LPR is anticipated to decrease [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current real estate market is experiencing a "spiral decline," where property owners are lowering prices to increase transaction volumes, leading to faster price drops [4][5]. - The strategy of "downward replacement" is gaining traction, where investors are selling higher-value properties to acquire lower-cost, high-rental-yield properties [5][6]. Group 3: Real Estate Tax Considerations - The implementation of a real estate tax is unlikely in the short term due to the current stabilization of the housing market, with legislative complexities further delaying its introduction [6][7]. - If a real estate tax is introduced, it may focus on property owners with multiple low-yield properties, while ordinary homeowners are expected to be exempt from taxation [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Perspective - The essence of housing is shifting towards residential use, with investment attributes diminishing, suggesting a need for investors to reassess their strategies [10][11]. - Enhancing personal income potential may be more beneficial than focusing solely on property price fluctuations [11].

【市场分析：美元中期承压，人民币汇率波动区间有望企稳】近期美元指数震荡回落，主因是美国财政 与信用风险重新定价。穆迪下调美国主权评级，三大评级机构对美债评级均低于 3A，加上国会推进大 规模减税与扩张性财政法案，联邦债务预期抬升，引发"卖美国"交易升温。30 年期美债收益率突破 5.1%，短端利率平稳，市场对长期财政可持续性担忧升温，衍生品市场看空情绪创历史新高。 4 月银 行结售汇逆差小幅扩大，企业结汇与售汇规模增长，外汇交易活跃度上升。4 月货物贸易顺差收窄，跨 境资金净流入649 亿美元，出口有韧性但面临不确定性。资本项方面，证券投资项下涉外收付款波动， 人民币债券托管量回升，外资配置意愿改善。4 月社零和工业增加值同比增长，5 月 LPR 下调释放托底 信号，人民币得到阶段性支撑。 从基本面看，5 月美国 PMI 初值高于预期，穆迪下调评级削弱美元信 心，中国跨境资金净流入，货物贸易顺差稳固。美债收益率因财政风险上行，中国 LPR 下调压低短端 利率，短期内美中利差有走阔趋势。美方关税政策反复，评级下调叠加政策不确定，美元承压凸显人民 币相对稳定性。 欧元方面，欧盟发展预期乏力，美关税政策增强欧元资产 ...