据媒体报道，特朗普政府取消了原定于周三美联储主席候选人终选名单面试。在美国总统此前一天发出 重要信号后，现任白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）已经成为了新任美联储主席的最大 热门，他也将成为特朗普"改组"美联储的关键人物，然而摆在其面前的挑战随着宏观经济形势走向不确 定性依然艰巨。 大局已定？ 截至12月3日，根据 Kalshi 预测市场数据，哈塞特出任下任美联储主席的概率超过80%。 鲍威尔的决定 如果哈塞特成为美联储新任主席，他将承担起特朗普改组美联储的重任。 除了鲍威尔以外，目前美联储理事会三名成员由前总统拜登任命，剩余三名则由特朗普任命。其中最新 任命的成员是米兰（Stephen Miran）。若鲍威尔在领导任期结束后未辞去理事职务，或特朗普未能成 功罢免拜登任命的美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook），那么米兰将不得不辞职，为新美联储主席候选人腾 出职位。 前美联储理事沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）是哈塞特角逐美联储主席职位的主要竞争对手，他曾公开批评美 联储当前的架构体系。即便未能出任主席，市场观察人士仍预计他有望加入美联储理事会，助力推动美 联储在经济增长与通胀调控思路上 ...

All three major U.S. stock indexes finished with back-to-back gains on Wednesday, with investors using November's unexpectedly weak private-sector hiring report to solidify expectations for a quarter-point interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. ...

your view on uh the RBI cutting rate or not. Uh my understanding is that you are thinking of a pause uh because the question really is that how does the RBI cut rates if you have inflation at 0.3% and growth is as high as 8.2%. But remember you seem to be the outlier.Most are expecting a rate cut. So we are we have been maintaining this view that after frontloading of rate cuts so there have been 100 basis points of interest rate reductions uh by the MPC uh since uh you know the start of this uh financial u ...

近期，招银国际发布《中美宏观经济与大类资产配置》报告，深入剖析了2025年中美两国的经济走势、政策方向及大类资产配置建议。 在美国方面，经济呈现短期"滞胀"态势。 2025年GDP增速预计将从2024年的2.8%放缓至1.7%，通胀压力短期内可能反弹，PCE通胀率预计在三季度升至2.8%、四季度达2.9%。 房地产市场延续滞涨格局，高利率环境下购房能力与销量均处于历史低位，大量房主因低利率房贷"锁定"而不愿换房，导致库存紧张。 与此同时，中低收入家庭财务压力加大，消费贷款拖欠率升至历史高位。 企业盈利增速也出现下调，尤其是对贸易战和经济周期敏感的工业、能源、原材料等行业。 在此背景下，美联储预计将在2025年9月至12月降息两次，2026年再降息两次，最终政策利率或降至3.25%-3.5%区间。 然而，由于白宫可能加强对美联储的影响，市场通胀预期不稳，叠加政府债务攀升，国债收益率或仍将居高不下。 美股估值面临压力，经济痛苦指数（通胀+失业）可能反弹，压制股市表现。 短期建议关注医疗、必选消费、通讯服务、材料和工业等板块。 整体来看，美股处于牛市后期，适合长期定投。 大类资产配置上，建议超配大宗商品，标配股票与 ...

Euro zone consumers raised their near-term inflation expectations a touch but kept them unchanged further out, a European Central Bank survey showed, supporting bets that price growth remains around target and no more rate cuts are needed. ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - Australia's inflation rate surged to 3.8% as of October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) forecast of 3.2% for the fourth quarter, driven by rising electricity and food costs [2][26][29] - Major economists and the bond market are now betting on a potential interest rate hike in 2026, rather than a decrease, due to persistent inflation pressures [2][3] - The RBA's next meeting is scheduled for February, where it may consider raising the cash rate if inflation continues to accelerate [2][3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Two Australian tech entrepreneurs sold their software monitoring company, Chronosphere, for approximately AUD 3.3 billion (USD 2.1 billion) to US cybersecurity giant Palo Alto Networks [5] - The founders of Chronosphere previously worked at Uber and Microsoft before establishing their company, which has secured contracts with major corporations like Walmart and DoorDash [5] - CSL, a major pharmaceutical company, has faced significant stock declines following two profit warnings, leading to a shift in investment strategies among large funds [6][7] Group 3: Mining and Resource Sector - Theta Gold Mines is advancing its TGME gold mine project in South Africa, with significant milestones achieved in construction, aiming for production by the end of 2026 [10][11] - The project is expected to create over 500 jobs locally and enhance regional economic development through an AI-driven training system [10][11] - Theta Gold has raised approximately AUD 51.4 million (USD 33.9 million) to support the construction of the TGME project, which has a resource estimate of about 6 million ounces of gold [11][13] Group 4: Stock Market Trends - Goldman Sachs has identified 13 undervalued growth stocks in the Australian market, following a significant downturn in the "unprofitable growth" sector, which has seen a 24% drop since mid-October [14][15][19] - The performance of these high-growth stocks is closely tied to the outlook for artificial intelligence, with potential for recovery as market conditions stabilize [16][18] - Stocks such as Zip, Xero, and WiseTech have been highlighted as potential buying opportunities after experiencing substantial declines [19]

Wall Street has plenty to be thankful for right now, with investors hoping that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive trading day, currently trading around 0.6530, supported by positive Australian economic data and increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] - Recent Australian economic data has shown strong performance, with private capital expenditure in Q3 rising by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the previous quarter's 0.2% and exceeding the market expectation of 0.5%. Additionally, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.8% year-on-year, above the previous value of 3.5% and the market consensus of 3.6% [2] - The market anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% in December, as inflation remains above the target range of 2% to 3%. The probability of a rate cut in December is currently only 6% according to ASX 30-day bank bill futures [2] Group 2 - In contrast, the US dollar has been weakening, with the dollar index trading around 99.50. This is primarily due to heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating an over 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut, a significant increase from 30% a week prior [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials have signaled a dovish stance, supporting the rate cut expectations. Notably, Fed Governor Stephen Milan mentioned that non-farm payroll data supports a December rate cut, while New York Fed President John Williams also referenced a potential rate cut [3] - US economic data has shown mixed signals, with initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 coming in better than expected, but September retail sales growth slowing and the November consumer confidence index dropping significantly, indicating uncertainty in the economic recovery [3] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD currency pair has broken above the 9-day exponential moving average, indicating strengthened short-term upward momentum. The pair is currently in a rectangular consolidation range, with potential upward testing of the 0.6630 area. Key support levels are at 0.6500 and the 9-day EMA at 0.6495, with a drop below these levels potentially testing the lower boundary around 0.6420 [5]

Core Insights - Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts in the U.S. have led to increased hedging activities in swaptions and derivatives linked to overnight rates, indicating a rise in investor demand for protection against policy uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's mixed messages are creating uncertainty in the market, prompting investors to seek hedging solutions [1] - There is a notable increase in flows into swaptions and derivatives as investors react to the heightened policy uncertainty [1]

you think Kevin Hasset ultimately would be a good good choice whe when it comes to economic monetary policy market stability all all the important things for the Fed chair >> I think all five candidates on the short list um are qualified experienced and I think reduce the concern that we once had that you will get a purely political appointment >> cuz that that was the concern with Hasset and I have to say just based on my own reporting of talking to you know bank executives and and hedge funds executives t ...