Group 1: Trade and Economic Policies - The United States has finalized a tariff agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and parts starting August 1, while certain pharmaceuticals, aircraft, and metals will be exempt from tariffs starting September 1 [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra expressed dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not establishing a clear agenda for interest rate cuts, advocating for a reduction of 100-150 basis points by year-end [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve official Daly fully supports the recent interest rate cut and suggests that further policy adjustments may be necessary to restore price stability while supporting the labor market [1] - Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts, depending on the trajectory of inflation and current signs of labor market weakness [1] Group 3: Housing Market - In August, new home sales in the U.S. reached an annualized total of 800,000 units, significantly exceeding the expected 650,000 units, marking a 20.5% month-over-month increase, the fastest growth since early 2022 [1] - The inventory of unsold new homes fell to 490,000 units, the lowest level this year [1] Group 4: Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.37% to 46,121.28 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw declines of 0.28% and 0.33%, respectively [4] - COMEX gold and silver futures dropped by 1.24% and 1.11%, respectively [5] Group 5: Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil futures rose by 2.21% to $64.81 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.93% to $68.26 per barrel [6]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is at a critical juncture in monetary policy, with a consensus among members that the current deposit facility rate of 2% is appropriate, and the threshold for short-term adjustments is considered high [1][2] - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone stated that inflation risks are balanced, and the eurozone's output is still expanding, with growth expected to recover after a slowdown [1][2] - There is a divergence in views among eurozone central bank governors, with some advocating for caution and others supporting a more accommodative stance to achieve inflation targets and support economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming December meeting of the ECB is anticipated to provide clearer insights into economic forecasts, particularly regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the eurozone [2] - The ECB President Christine Lagarde's position is seen as a key variable in breaking the current policy deadlock, as she has not publicly commented on the balance of inflation risks [2][3] - A participant in a closed-door meeting indicated that while the 2% inflation target has been reached, the sustainability of this target remains uncertain and will be addressed in the December meeting [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth consecutive cut since 2024 [2] Group 1: Impact on Domestic Banks - Following the Fed's rate cut, domestic banks in China have begun to adjust their USD fixed deposit rates, with many local banks reducing rates that were previously above 4% [3] - Huashang Bank lowered its USD fixed deposit rates by 25 basis points, with new rates for 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month deposits set at 3.75%, 3.85%, and 3.90% respectively [3] - Xi'an Bank and Chongqing Three Gorges Bank are also expected to lower their USD fixed deposit rates, with Xi'an Bank's rates dropping from 3.6%, 4.1%, 4.3%, and 4.3% to 3.2%, 3.6%, 3.98%, and 3.98% for various terms [3][4] Group 2: Customer Strategies - Customers are advised to deposit USD quickly to lock in rates above 4% before further reductions take effect [4] - Chen Li, a customer, received notice of a significant rate cut from Guangdong Huaxing Bank before the Fed's decision, prompting her to secure deposits at higher rates [5] - Chen's experience highlights the trend of customers acting swiftly to secure higher rates before anticipated cuts, as she managed to deposit funds at rates above 4% prior to the adjustments [6] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - In contrast to mainland banks, many banks in Hong Kong continue to offer attractive USD fixed deposit rates, with some rates exceeding 3% [8] - A virtual bank in Hong Kong launched a promotional USD fixed deposit with a rate of 5.09%, attracting significant customer interest [8][9] - Major banks in Hong Kong, such as HSBC and Bank of China Hong Kong, have maintained their USD deposit rates despite the Fed's rate cut, with rates around 3.5% to 3.7% for various terms [9][10]

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images The Fed continues to emphasize that it currently has no "risk-free" path. Key Takeaways Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is pulling the central bank's policy in two different directions, as the job market weakens while inflation remains elevated. The central bank has started cutting interest rates, but could change its strategy if inflation gets worse. Two other Fed policymakers spoke Tuesday, with one advocating for gradual rate cuts and the other for more dec ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the central bank is in a “challenging situation” with an ongoing risk of faster-than-expected inflation at the same time that weak job growth has raised concern about the health of the labor market.In comments prepared for delivery to Rhode Island’s Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell offered little indication of when he thinks the Fed might next cut interest rates, noting that there was danger to both cutting too fast and risking a new surge of in ...

Let's get to Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE and the pre-bell playbook. What's going on there. Good morning, Kevin. Good morning, Nicole.A quiet morning for futures and most uh products moving the markets this morning, but remember yesterday we opened down and fired higher the minute the market opened. So, a very quiet market to start the morning. You know, uh a lot of the futures are very close to unchanged.You've got 10-year yields slightly lower. You got the dollar slightly lower, but all very close to home ...

Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming economic indicators and corporate earnings as they may influence market movements [1] - A significant discussion between the U.S. President and President Xi of China regarding TikTok and potential trade deals is expected to impact stock prices [2] - Concerns are raised about the bond market following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which have led to declining bond prices and rising yields, potentially hindering the housing market [3] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, is highlighted as crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] - The interpretation of inflation data is complicated by tariff-related distortions, and the Fed may delay rate cuts until there is clear evidence of controlled inflation [4] Stock Insights from Jim Cramer - Rocket Companies, Inc. (NYSE:RKT) is discussed in the context of potential benefits from falling mortgage rates due to rate cuts, but Cramer suggests Wells Fargo as a more favorable investment [9] - Okta, Inc. (NASDAQ:OKTA) is noted for its identity management solutions, but Cramer prefers Palo Alto Networks due to its acquisition of CyberArk [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly bearish as there is no obvious driving force [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that due to factors such as the decline in crude oil prices, the return of domestic PTA device supply, and the seasonal weakening of aromatics, the PTA market shows a weak trend. Although the downstream load of polyester remains at a high level, there is still no obvious driving force in the market, and it is expected to be mainly bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. Crude oil prices are falling, domestic PTA device supply is gradually returning, PTA basis is weakening, and PX device operating rate is rising while the spread between PX and naphtha is shrinking [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 91%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the load of the weaving end has increased slightly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. PTA port inventory has decreased by 40,000 tons [3]. - **Basis**: Bearish. PTA basis has weakened rapidly, profits have continued to shrink, and market liquidity is very loose [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $220, and PTA processing fees remain at around 150 yuan and have shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. PTA prices are at a neutral to low level, and aromatics supply has increased due to the return of reforming devices and the postponement of domestic PX mainstream device overhauls [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [3][8]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Expected to be mainly bearish with no obvious driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical crises still exist, and prices have dropped significantly. Trump called for further price cuts. Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased sharply in the week of September 14, but the four - week average export volume increased slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 [5][8]. - **Gasoline**: The peak season for gasoline is ending, and the premium of high - octane components is weakening. Refinery operating rates have risen to 94.9%, gasoline production has decreased to 9.6 million barrels per day, and total gasoline inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels compared to last week. The driving season will end at the end of September [23]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Supply - Side Changes**: Overhauled devices are returning, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply has increased. Some refineries have device maintenance and new device production plans, which will affect the supply of pure benzene, toluene, and xylene [32][53]. - **Profit Situation**: Selective disproportionation profit has declined, and pure benzene prices are suppressing disproportionation profit. The spread between PX and naphtha has shrunk, and PX short - process profit is still supported [49][54]. - **Market Conditions**: The US - Asia MX spread has widened, but there is no news of exports from South Korea to the US. The spot PX price is gradually falling, and the spread between PX and naphtha has decreased [60]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is returning, and prices are weak. East China ethylene glycol port inventory is 465,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline. Overseas imports are expected to decrease, but domestic device production is pressuring prices [75][83]. - **Polyester**: It maintains a high load, but production is increasing while the downstream is entering the off - season. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under pressure [89][101].

Group 1 - A 25 basis points rate cut is considered the best option for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the upcoming October monetary policy review, requiring careful communication from the central bank due to higher expectations for rate cuts post-June [1] - Economists suggest that inflation will remain benign, tracking below 2% in September and October, with CPI FY27 numbers expected to be around 4% or less, potentially dropping to 1.1% in October, the lowest since 2004 [2][4] - The CPI inflation may decline further by 65-75 basis points due to significant GST rationalization, with historical data indicating that previous rate rationalization led to a 35 basis points decline in overall inflation within a few months [3] Group 2 - The new CPI series is expected to show further moderation of 20-30 basis points, indicating that CPI inflation will likely remain at the lower end of the inflation target (4±2%) for FY26 and FY27 [4] - A rate cut is viewed as the best option given the benign inflation trajectory, positioning the RBI as a forward-looking central bank, while maintaining a status quo with a shift to an accommodative stance is seen as a second-best option [5] - The RBI has cut its policy repo rate by a cumulative 100 basis points since February, reducing it from 6.50% to 5.50% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve has implemented its first interest rate cut since December, marking a significant shift in monetary policy compared to other major central banks that have maintained stable interest rates [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates indicates a potential change in the economic outlook and may influence market dynamics [1] - This rate cut could lead to increased borrowing and spending, impacting various sectors such as consumer goods and real estate [1] - The divergence from other central banks suggests a unique economic situation in the U.S., which may attract foreign investment [1]