当今世界，关于美元的讨论已跳出经济学家与金融专家的圈层，普通民众也愈发关注这一全球货币霸主的地位动摇。美国政客频频将中国视作"头号敌人"， 妄图通过对抗维系金融霸权，却忽视了一个核心事实：真正威胁美元根基的，正是美国自身的短视与越界行为。 在巴蒂斯塔看来，靠恐惧维系的霸权注定脆弱。当SWIFT丧失中立性、沦为地缘政治工具，其在全球金融体系中的合法性便大幅削弱。全球贸易迫切需要一 种不受政治干预、不会随意"断网"的支付保障，而美国显然无法提供这种确定性，各国加速搭建替代支付网络，本质上是对美元信用破产的集体回应。 作为全球核心储备货币，美元的地位建立在"中立性"与"安全性"的隐性承诺之上，而美国早已突破这一底线。2022年，美国联合盟友冻结俄罗斯央行约3000 亿美元海外储备，这不仅是对俄罗斯的精准经济打击，更是对国际金融规则的公然践踏。这笔储备并非私人财富，而是俄罗斯凭借资源出口与劳动创造积累 的合法主权资产，依据传统金融契约精神，央行储备享有绝对主权豁免权，美西方的举动无疑沦为赤裸裸的"国家抢劫"，彻底击碎了各国对美元资产安全的 信任。 信任一旦崩塌便难以修复，各国为规避潜在风险，纷纷加速探索美元替代方案， ...

这场听证会不仅是法律争议，更是美元体系根基的"压力测试"。全球市场屏息以待：1月21日的裁决， 或将重新定义美联储与行政权力的边界，进而影响万亿美元金融体系的未来。 案件核心矛盾在于：《联邦储备法》规定解雇美联储理事需"正当理由"，旨在防范因利率争议等政治因 素干扰央行决策。但特朗普团队主张"理由由总统自行认定"，若此逻辑成立，美联储理事或将沦为"可 随意替换的政治工具"。目前库克已起诉阻止解雇，下级法院裁定其在诉讼期间留任，联邦上诉法院维 持原判，特朗普政府上诉至最高法院。 法律界与学界普遍担忧：即便库克最终留任，最高法院若未设定严格的"正当理由"门槛，可能为总统干 预美联储打开缺口。前克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特指出，"问题在于如何界定'理由'，避免总统仅凭主观 指控即可解职理事";约翰.霍普金斯大学教授福斯特（603806）更警告，"独立性极可能崩溃，特朗普或 持续攻击，最终破坏美联储抗通胀公信力"。 美联储独立性是其维持美元信用与抗通胀能力的核心。历史上，沃尔克以高利率抑制通胀虽短期引发衰 退，却通过坚守独立性锚定了长期通胀预期;疫情期间，美联储的公信力更助力通胀预期稳定在2%目标 附近。若独立性受损，货币 ...

1月20日亚洲早盘，美元指数延续大幅回调态势，叠加政策不确定性与信用担忧，多头动能持续衰减。 截至当日交易时段，美元指数报98.02，较前一交易日纽约汇市收盘价98.85下跌0.84%，日内波动区间 为97.95-98.21，延续自1月20日以来的快速下行趋势。昨日美元指数大幅下挫1.19%，创下近期单日最大 跌幅，非美货币集体走强，反映市场对美元信心的阶段性动摇。 鲍威尔"调查门"事件成为扰动美元走势的核心变量，直接冲击美联储政策独立性与美元信用根基。美联 储主席鲍威尔因总部翻修工程超支遭刑事调查，其直指这是政府施压降息的借口，引发市场对政治干预 货币政策的担忧。事件披露后，美元指数短线跳水，VIX恐慌指数波动加剧，资金加速流向黄金等安全 资产，现货黄金强势突破4600美元关口，进一步印证市场对美元资产的避险需求弱化。长期来看，若政 治干预持续侵蚀美联储独立性，美元"经济实力+政策独立"的信用双支柱将松动，动摇其国际储备货币 底层逻辑。 美联储政策路径的不确定性进一步加剧美元波动，降息预期与通胀韧性形成博弈。市场普遍预期2026年 美联储将延续宽松步伐，花旗、高盛等机构预测上半年累计降息50个基点，叠加特朗 ...

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 金价近期频创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于4，599美元/盎司（周环比2.0%），国内AU9999黄金收于 1，033元/克（周环比3.0%）。本周一开盘后，国内外金价大幅跳涨超1%，再创历史新高。 近期地缘不确定因素增多，避险资金或涌入黄金。其一是格陵兰岛归属问题的争端。特朗普近期宣布， 将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并 宣称加征的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相关方就美国"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。为 予以反制，欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税。其二是伊朗局势的不确定性。 此前特朗普警告，伊朗若继续镇压抗议者将面临"严重后果"，军事准备、外交斡旋与制裁压力仍在推 进。百年未有之大变局下，全球传统秩序趋于崩溃，避险情绪或利好黄金。 美国12月CPI低于预期，为美联储降息打开空间。12月CPI同比为2.7%，核心CPI同比2.6%，均低于市场 预期，核心CPI增速创下2021年3月以来新低。数据出炉后，市场加大对提前降息的押注，4月降息概率 小幅提升。基准假设下关税对通胀的影响仍是一次性 ...

银价格，又爆了！ 昨天，随着国际金价和银价一路飙升并双双再度创下历史新高，贵金属再次成为市场的焦点。 那么，本轮贵金属"牛市"背后的深层逻辑是什么？2026年是"盛宴的尾声"还是新周期的起点呢？下面我们就一起来看看。 去年以来，贵金属市场可以说是"牛气冲天"——黄金领涨，白银后来居上，上演了一场"接力赛"。 2025年，纽约期金和伦敦金现货累计上涨超70%，沪金期货上涨近65%；纽约期银及伦敦银现货累计上涨超170%，沪银期货上涨超155%。 而今年开年以来，金银价格的走势也持续强劲。 昨天（1月19日），国际黄金期货价格一度飙升至每盎司4698美元的历史最高点，现货黄金也站上4690美元。 02宽松货币政策的催化 比黄金更为耀眼的是白银的涨幅。伦敦现货白银价格一举突破每盎司94美元，自今年开年以来已累计飙升31%，创下自1983年以来最强劲的新年开局。 | < 白 | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 93,131 | | 昨结 | 9 ...

涨停股方面，明泰铝业净利润预增超12%，高端化战略成效初显。1月19日晚间，明泰铝业发布公告 称，预计2025年归母净利润为19.5亿元至20亿元，同比增长12%至14%。公司同时预计2025年扣非归母 净利润为17亿元至17.5亿元，同比增长18%至21%。对于2025年业绩预增的原因，明泰铝业表示，其再 生铝产品低碳优势明显。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 明泰铝业 | 9.99% | --------- | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 铝 | 207亿 | 6.71亿 | | 2 | 南山铝业 | 5.86% | -5 | 有色金属 | 工业会展 | 铝 | 746亿 | 16.574Z | | 3 | 湖南白银 | 5.06% | 1 | 有色金属 | 震金属 | 白银 | 334Z | 22.17亿 | | 4 | 盤新埋能 | 3.82% | nn | 有色会風 | 能源会属 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond futures are under pressure, the stock index is expected to rise, and the precious metals market will see increased volatility. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - environment [6][8][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.22 billion yuan. The GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year. The social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate data showed mixed trends. It's expected that treasury bond futures are under pressure, and investors should be cautious [5][6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The housing price in 70 large and medium - sized cities in December 2025 declined. Although the domestic economic growth is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment is rising. It's expected that the stock index will gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [8] 3.2 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has increased speculative sentiment. It's expected that the market will be more volatile, and investors should exit long positions and wait and see [10][11] 3.3 Base Metals 3.3.1 Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures were weakly volatile. In the medium term, the price of steel products is determined by industrial supply - demand. The demand for rebar is declining, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It's expected that the price will continue to be weakly volatile, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [13] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. The demand for iron ore is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The futures are under pressure at high levels and may correct in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [15][16] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke may increase, but the iron - making demand is decreasing. The futures' rebound is blocked. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels [18] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five years, and the over - supply situation has slightly eased. The price may rebound after a decline, and investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20][21] 3.4 Energy 3.4.1 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The US is accelerating the expansion of Chevron's oil production in Venezuela, which is negative for oil prices, but the CFTC data shows that US funds are bullish on crude oil. The rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [22][23] 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The inventory of heavy fuel oil in Fujairah increased, and the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil decreased. The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is negative for prices, but the stable crude oil price provides support. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [25] 3.4.3 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou was partially loose, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. The cold weather in the north and early employee return in the south have affected the construction, transportation, and production of small and medium - sized enterprises. However, the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing is growing. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but the PDH is still in deep loss. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [27][28] 3.5 Rubber 3.5.1 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The market rose last week, supported by the rising butadiene price and high device operation rate, but limited by weak downstream demand. It's expected to fluctuate strongly, and the focus should be on butadiene price, downstream demand recovery, and device maintenance in January [30] 3.5.2 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The domestic rubber - tapping season is ending, the raw material price is rising, the demand from tire enterprises is increasing, but the inventory is accumulating. It's expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [32] 3.6 Chemicals 3.6.1 PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. It's in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side fluctuation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It's expected to fluctuate strongly [34] 3.6.2 Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures fell. In the short term, the price will be strongly volatile, driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is at a high level, the industrial demand for compound fertilizer is increasing, and the agricultural demand is limited. The inventory is lower than expected. It's expected to be strongly volatile [35] 3.6.3 PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, the PX operation rate is increasing, but the falling crude oil price is a drag. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate within the range [36] 3.6.4 PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from polyester enterprises has decreased due to profit compression, and the inventory is low. It's expected to fluctuate in the short term and may accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil prices [37] 3.6.5 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and it's in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The price may be under pressure, and investors should wait and see [39] 3.6.6 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the terminal factories are digesting raw material inventory, and the inventory is at a low level, providing support. It's expected to follow the raw material price and fluctuate. Investors should control risks [40] 3.6.7 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate has increased. It's expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate carefully and pay attention to device maintenance [41] 3.6.8 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, the downstream demand is general, and it's in the off - season. The downward space is limited, and it's advisable to operate within the range in the short term [42] 3.6.9 Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, the inventory of traders is increasing, and the demand from processing plants is weak. Affected by the cold wave, the sales may be affected. It's expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43] 3.6.10 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is stable, and the cost has decreased. The profit has improved, but the future price is still not optimistic [44] 3.7 Pulp and Minerals 3.7.1 Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The import pulp market is weak, the price is differentiated, and the inventory is at a relatively high level and still accumulating. The spot trading is light, and the price is under pressure [45] 3.7.2 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [46] 3.7.3 Copper - The previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US inflation is high, the dollar index is rising, which suppresses the base metals. The copper supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory is increasing. The price is at a high level, and the risk is greater than the opportunity [48] 3.7.4 Aluminum - The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The supply of bauxite is abundant, the alumina market is in oversupply, the electrolytic - aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The alumina can be short - sold at high levels before the Spring Festival, and the aluminum price may correct in the short term [50][51] 3.7.5 Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The raw - material supply is tight, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Driven by the strong non - ferrous metals market, investors should be cautious about chasing up [53] 3.7.6 Lead - The previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead and the cost of recycled lead support the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [55] 3.7.7 Tin - The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand is supported by emerging fields, and the inventory is decreasing. It's expected to fluctuate strongly, and investors should control risks [57] 3.7.8 Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The global geopolitical situation is tense, and the nickel production quota in Indonesia has decreased. The nickel - ore price is stable, but the stainless - steel market is weak, and the refined - nickel inventory is at a relatively high level. The overall supply of primary nickel is in excess [58] 3.8 Agricultural Products 3.8.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Brazilian soybeans are entering the harvest season, the soybean - pressing volume of oil mills has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing, and the demand for soybean oil has improved. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil when the price rises [59][60] 3.8.2 Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures were almost stable. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 bio - fuel policy is negative, but the upcoming festival demand provides support. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [61][62] 3.8.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed. The inventory of rapeseed meal is accumulating, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is decreasing. Investors can consider holding the position of expanding the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [64][65] 3.8.4 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell. The USDA supply - demand report is positive, and the domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The future planting area in Xinjiang will be reduced, and the demand is resilient. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but the domestic valuation is relatively high in the short term. Investors can buy on dips [66][67] 3.8.5 Sugar - The previous trading day, sugar futures fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient during the peak - pressing season. The import is also expected to be high in January. The upward space is limited after the previous rebound, and it's advisable to take a short - side operation in the long term [69][70] 3.8.6 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fell sharply. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the long term, and investors can buy on dips [72][74] 3.8.7 Hogs - The previous trading day, hog futures fell. The northern market is stable, and the southern market is rising slightly. The supply in the first quarter is still under pressure, and investors should wait and see [76] 3.8.8 Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The cost of egg production has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, but the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The profit is improving, and investors can consider a bull - spread strategy [77][78] 3.8.9 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The northern - port inventory is low, the sales progress in the northeast is fast, and the spot price is strong. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises has changed. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch market may follow the corn market. Investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [79][80] 3.8.10 Logs - The previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different trends, and the delivery is affected by downstream pre - holiday stocking. The supply - demand pattern varies between the north and the south. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may fluctuate at the bottom [83][84]

大摩闭门会：科技、金属、亚洲，开门普涨能持续么？ 260119 摘要 2026 年初，中国科技股和资源材料股表现强劲，得益于人工智能、脑 机结合、新商业航空等领域的科技创新驱动，以及居民存款转移和机构 投资者资产再配置带来的资金流入。 监管层已适度降温 A 股市场过热情绪，通过窗口指导等措施避免科技概 念板块过度炒作，旨在维护资本市场健康发展，而非打压整体牛市。 人民币汇率走势相对稳定，存在升值压力，主要受美元贬值和中国经济 基本面支撑。预计上半年人民币兑美元汇率或触及 6.85 至 6.8 区间， 整体升幅温和。 A 股市场情绪指数在 1 月 6 日首次超过 78%警戒线，1 月 12 日达 93 点 峰值，反映市场过热。监管层出台融资融券保证金比例调整等措施，旨 在抑制过热情绪。 本轮牛市新增资金主要来自债市、存款、保险资金及外资重新流入，而 非融资融券杠杆提升。中长期国债收益率上升和居民存款利率下降推动 资金转移。 全球范围内分散化配置趋势持续，地缘政治不确定性增加，中国市场投 资确定性提升，人民币短期内可能进一步升值，对中国股市持相对乐观 态度。 央行下调结构性货币政策工具利率，旨在增加准财政政策传导 ...

报告共计：28页 黄金新周期：供需重构下的历史轨迹与未来定价逻辑深度解析 近期，华福证券发布的一份行业专题报告，对黄金这一特殊资产的历史脉络与未来前景进行了系统性的梳理与展望。在全球宏 观经济格局深刻演变、金融市场不确定性增加的背景下，黄金的角色与定价逻辑正在经历新一轮的重构。这份报告为我们理解 黄金市场的过去与未来，提供了清晰的视角。 今天分享的是：2026黄金行业专题报告：黄金供需重构下的机遇，历史复盘与未来定价逻辑展望 报告开篇即点明黄金的独特地位：它既不具备生息能力，又兼具商品、货币与金融三重属性。这种复杂性决定了其价格受到多 重因素的交织影响。从供应侧来看，全球黄金供应在过去十余年间保持低速增长，矿产金产量增速自2016年后明显放缓，再生 金则跟随金价波动，成为调节供应的重要变量。需求侧的变迁更为显著，传统的金饰制造需求占比下降，而投资需求与各国央 行的购金行为，正日益成为主导需求结构的关键力量。 回顾黄金超过两百年的历史长卷，其价格走势宛如一部全球政治经济变迁的编年史。从金本位制的稳固与崩溃，到布雷顿森林 体系确立与瓦解，黄金的货币属性演绎得淋漓尽致。上世纪七十年代的石油危机，催生了惊人的涨幅，凸 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】1月19日，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.77%报4676.7美元/盎司，盘中一度升至4690美元，现货黄 金价格也一度触及4036.60欧元；COMEX白银期货收涨6.49%报94.28美元/盎司。 报道还提到，专家预测，到2026年，黄金价格可能远超5000美元，白银达到100美元。除了当前的地缘政治紧张局 势，美国的外交政策、全球去美元化以及华盛顿和欧元区的毁灭性债务政策，都会对黄金价格产生推动作用。白银作 为重要的工业金属，对人工智能、机器人技术和能源应用都有需求，同样受到影响。 今日俄罗斯发文称，美国对欧盟的最新关税威胁引发金融市场动荡，高达25%的税率威胁对投资者的风险承受力造成 严重影响，因此，黄金和白银等避险资产需求大增，而比特币和美国股市等风险较高的资产则面临压力。 在此背景下，越来越多'纸黄金'和'纸白银'交易涌现出来，而实际的实物黄金和银条、硬币供应跟不上需求。买家希望 在家就能实物持有这些资产，导致很多金属交易商订单暴涨或面临供应短缺。 ...