Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] Core Viewpoint - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite short - term setbacks, the long - term bullish view is still valid, and investors should be aware of risks related to the nomination process and external market corrections [4] Summary According to Relevant Contents Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 563.95, 558.80, and 550.95 respectively. The price increases are 3.55, 5.55, and 3.20, with increases of 0.63%, 1.00%, and 0.58% respectively. The trading volumes are 8223, 289, and 101, and the open interests are all 13003 [1] - **Palladium Futures**: For pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 428.00, 420.00, and 422.50 respectively. The price decreases are 3.95, 10.50, and 8.30, with decreases of 0.91%, 2.44%, and 1.93% respectively. The trading volumes are 3013, 81, and 27, and the open interests are all 4464 [1] Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The current price of Shanghai platinum is 554.25 + 2.57 = 556.82 yuan/gram, with a slight increase of 0.005%. The price of London platinum is 2149.00 - 18.00 = 2131.00 dollars/ounce, with a decrease of 0.008%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 871.00 + 34.00 = 905.00 yuan/gram and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively [1] - **Palladium Spot**: The current price of Chinese palladium remains at 421.00 yuan/gram, and the price of Russian palladium is 4179.76 - 266.68 = 3913.08 rubles/gram, with a decrease of 0.060% [1] Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 585,530.93 ounces, a decrease of 1627.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts remain at 313,567.94 ounces. The turnover of the Gold Exchange is 7,106.69 million yuan, an increase of 253.3 million yuan, and the trading volume is 128.00 kilograms, an increase of 4.0 kilograms [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 202,180.58 ounces and 159,361.58 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.04, 6,830.71, 4.13, 22,748.99, 47,954.74, and 6.90 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the US dollar index increased by 0.25, the S&P index decreased by 38.79, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.04, the Nasdaq index decreased by 58.49, the Dow Jones index decreased by 784.67, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.01 [1] - **Related Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) and Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices and price changes are as follows: Shanghai gold 2604 is 1152.00, a decrease of 1.06; Shanghai gold 2606 is 1155.06, a decrease of 1.14; Shanghai gold 2608 is 1158.44, a decrease of 0.62; Shanghai silver 2604 is 21639.00, a decrease of 215; Shanghai silver 2606 is 21369.00, a decrease of 209; Shanghai silver 2608 is 21314.00, a decrease of 200 [1] Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical Event**: The military strike by the US and Israel against Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Personnel Change**: US President Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected. His nomination has led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, which has affected platinum and palladium prices [2][4] - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's "appointed" director Milan [2] - **China's Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China has held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving payment services [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of a strong US dollar, geopolitical conflicts, and their impact on various industries, particularly manufacturing, energy, and technology sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Strong Dollar Dynamics**: The strong dollar is primarily driven by capital returning to the US due to geopolitical conflicts rather than a robust economic foundation. This situation aims to suppress demand in non-US economies to inject demand into the US economy [1][2] 2. **AI's Limited Support for Dollar**: AI is viewed as a deflationary supply expansion that lacks the ability to generate sustained monopoly profits, leading to a potential decline in the US's return on equity (ROE) and, consequently, the strength of the dollar [1][4] 3. **Energy Security Constraints**: Energy prices are rising, which will squeeze production profits in manufacturing economies like Europe and Japan. China is noted to have relatively stronger resilience against these shocks [1][7] 4. **Reindustrialization Strategy**: The US is moving towards a "state capitalism" model, focusing on expanding domestic production capabilities in sectors like energy and military, driven by security narratives [1][4][12] 5. **Asset Allocation Strategy**: In a strong dollar phase, risk appetite decreases, with a preference for traditional industrial stocks over tech stocks. Commodities, particularly energy and self-sufficient energy sources in China, are viewed positively [1][16] 6. **Gold as an Indicator**: Gold's performance is seen as a barometer for dollar strength. A scenario of "strong dollar, weak gold" indicates a concentration of risk capital in dollar assets, benefiting the US in geopolitical conflicts [1][9] 7. **Weak Dollar Implications**: A weak dollar typically reflects accumulated credit and debt issues, leading to a narrative of "de-dollarization" and driving up gold and other safe-haven assets [3] 8. **Geopolitical Conflict Effects**: Geopolitical tensions are expected to disrupt energy supply chains, particularly affecting oil and light oil, with significant impacts on manufacturing economies reliant on energy imports [6][7] 9. **Investment Shifts**: The US is expected to shift investments from AI to reindustrialization, focusing on energy and military sectors, as the returns on AI investments are anticipated to decline [11][13] 10. **Market Dynamics**: The current market environment is characterized by a high-interest rate climate, which may negatively impact capital returns and equity valuations, particularly for tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ [14] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Military and Economic Strategy**: The US may increasingly rely on military and geopolitical strategies to stimulate domestic demand and manage economic pressures, indicating a shift from traditional economic policies [4][10] 2. **Long-term Dollar Weakness**: There is a belief that the strong dollar is not sustainable long-term, with expectations of a future shift towards a weaker dollar and a stronger renminbi [2] 3. **Investment in Energy Infrastructure**: The focus on energy infrastructure is critical, with significant capital needed for sectors like electricity, oil, and gas, which are essential for reindustrialization efforts [13] 4. **Global Order Changes**: The existing global production order is weakening, with more countries willing to impose export restrictions, reflecting a decline in the effectiveness of US economic sanctions [5][10] 5. **Future Dollar Trends**: The potential for the dollar to weaken again post-reindustrialization is acknowledged, with the need for the US to stabilize its domestic economy through strategic investments [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The bond market has certain pressures, and caution should be maintained [8]. - The domestic stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and long positions can be continued to hold [10]. - The precious metal market is expected to have significantly amplified fluctuations, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for now [13]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils lack bullish drivers but are at low valuations. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities [15]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities [18]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillatory pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [20]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall surplus pressure. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider the opportunity to exit long positions on rallies [24]. - The crude oil price has a basis for rising. Investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts [26]. - The polyolefin market price is expected to be strong in the short term, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [28]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [32]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [34]. - The urea market may be in a strong and oscillatory state in the short term [36]. - The PX price center may move up, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [39]. - The PTA price will rise in tandem with PX and oil prices, and it is advisable to operate in the low - range [40]. - The ethylene glycol price may oscillate upwards, but the high inventory may suppress the short - term increase [42]. - The short - fiber market is still driven by the cost side, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [43]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate strongly [45]. - The soda ash market may have short - term emotional fluctuations, and the disk may return to reality in the future [46]. - The glass market may oscillate slightly and strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [49]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [50]. - The pulp price has insufficient upward momentum, and the port inventory suppresses the pulp price [52]. - The lithium carbonate price has strong downward support, but short - term fluctuations may increase [53]. - The copper price is under pressure and oscillating [55]. - The aluminum price is running strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [56]. - The zinc price is oscillating [58]. - The lead price is weakly oscillating [61]. - The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to controlling risks [63]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and events [65]. - For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [66]. - For palm oil, long positions can be considered to be closed [68]. - For rapeseed oil, a bullish trading idea can be considered [72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. - The sugar price has upward pressure due to strong domestic supply [76]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [78]. - The pig price may continue to decline in the short term, and investors can wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [80]. - For eggs, investors can hold short positions in the far - month contracts [82]. - The corn and corn starch markets may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [83]. - The log market is expected to have its industry prosperity repaired, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [86]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 3% to 155,860 yuan/ton. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance sheet is being reshaped. The domestic production in Jiangxi is still uncertain, and the supply of the ore end may be in a tight balance. The social inventory of carbonate lithium is gradually decreasing, and the price has short - term support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [53]. 3.2 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,980 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.35%. The overseas macro - environment is complex. The supply pressure at the ore end is prominent, and the electrolytic copper output increase is limited. The demand side will show a pattern of seasonal recovery and structural differentiation. The copper price is under pressure and oscillating [55]. 3.3 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.88%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate to a historical high. The aluminum price is running strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [56]. 3.4 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the consumption is expected to improve, but the recovery speed may be slow. The refined zinc social inventory may accumulate until the middle and late stages. The zinc price is oscillating [58]. 3.5 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The production of primary lead and secondary lead is gradually recovering, but the consumption is weak. The social inventory of primary lead has accumulated significantly, and the lead price is weakly oscillating [61]. 3.6 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 1.59% to 394,100 yuan/ton. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side shows a complex picture. The refined tin inventory is decreasing, and the tin price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [63]. 3.7 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 1.49% to 135,710 yuan/ton. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the real - world consumption is not optimistic, and the primary nickel market is in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and macro - events [65]. 3.8 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 0.28% to 2,843 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract remained flat at 8,370 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean import is slowing down. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range; the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly, and it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [66]. 3.9 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rebounded. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in February is expected to decline. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level. Long positions can be considered to be closed [68]. 3.10 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures closed higher. China has adjusted the tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. For rapeseed oil, a bullish trading idea can be considered [70]. 3.11 Cotton - The domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, and the overseas cotton market fluctuated slightly. The new - season global cotton is expected to have reduced production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. 3.12 Sugar - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly, and the overseas raw sugar oscillated weakly. India has revised its production forecast, which is bullish for the market. The domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and the price has upward pressure [76]. 3.13 Apple - The apple futures rose to a new high, and the spot market was stable. The current inventory is low, and the quality is poor compared with previous years. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [78]. 3.14 Pig - The main pig futures contract fell 0.18% to 11,140 yuan/ton. The supply pressure in the short term is still large, and the price may continue to decline. Investors can wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [80]. 3.15 Egg - The main egg futures contract rose 1.28% to 3,396 yuan/500kg. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Investors can hold short positions in the far - month contracts [82]. 3.16 Corn & Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.34% to 2,384 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.33% to 2,696 yuan/ton. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the supply pressure needs to be released. The corn starch may follow the corn market [83]. 3.17 Log - The main log contract closed at 800.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.19%. The wood transportation is affected, and the industry prosperity is expected to be repaired. The log price is at a relatively high level, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [86].

Group 1 - The price of spot gold fell below $5,100 per ounce, reaching a low of $5,086, with a decline of over 1% [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 recorded 213,000, slightly below market expectations, indicating a stable labor market [2] - The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 1.87 million, marking the largest increase this year, suggesting a potential shift in labor market dynamics [2] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that the process of de-dollarization will not reverse in the long term, and short-term adjustments do not signify the end of the gold bull market, recommending to buy on dips [2] - The geopolitical risks are expected to impact the market significantly in March, with gold prices likely to be sensitive to developments in the Middle East [2] - The government work report indicates changes in healthcare policies, signaling three important developments, including the completion of housing projects and the initiation of a special bond worth 300 billion [3]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Supply - The recent military actions by the US and Israel against Iran have heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased uncertainty in energy supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil supply [1] - Brent crude oil prices rose from $72.9 per barrel on February 27 to $77.7 per barrel on March 2, indicating a significant market reaction to the geopolitical developments [1] Group 2: Global Shipping Costs and Risks - The escalation of conflict has increased risks along the Red Sea shipping routes, prompting global shipping companies to take emergency measures, including suspending certain routes and rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, which will significantly increase shipping times and reduce capacity utilization [2] - Major shipping companies like Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company have adjusted their operations in response to the heightened risks in the region [2] Group 3: Impact on Aviation and Tourism - The closure of airspace and suspension of airport operations in several Middle Eastern countries have led to numerous flight cancellations, adversely affecting the aviation and tourism sectors [3] - The rising oil prices and the need for airlines to reroute flights have increased operational risks and costs for airlines operating in the region [3] Group 4: Inflation Risks in Major Economies - The geopolitical tensions are contributing to rising inflation risks in the US and Europe, with the Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicating a higher threshold for interest rate cuts due to increased uncertainty around inflation [4][5] - The potential for rising oil prices and increased supply chain costs could exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to a more complex monetary policy environment [4] Group 5: Rising Safe-Haven Demand for Precious Metals - The geopolitical risks have reignited interest in precious metals as safe-haven assets, with gold and silver prices rebounding significantly in late February [6] - As of March 2, gold prices had increased by 9.7% and silver by 23.7% since their respective lows on February 17, reflecting heightened demand amid rising inflation concerns [6] Group 6: Global Security Concerns - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have raised awareness of the "global security deficit," with calls for enhanced international cooperation to address security challenges and reduce the risk of conflict [7] - The increase in military spending globally is raising concerns about its impact on national budgets and development, highlighting the need for multilateral approaches to security [7] Group 7: Short-Term Impact on Chinese Exports - Certain Chinese export sectors, particularly machinery and automotive products, may experience short-term disruptions due to the geopolitical tensions, although the long-term trend of globalization for Chinese products remains intact [8] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's exports of machinery and electrical products to the Arab League increased by 22%, indicating strong demand despite current tensions [8] Group 8: Economic Resilience Testing in Major Economies - Major economies will face objective tests of their economic resilience amid rising external uncertainties, with South Korea's market showing significant adjustments due to its trade dependencies and the impact of a strengthening US dollar [9] - The concentration of South Korea's industrial chain in key sectors like automotive and semiconductors makes it particularly vulnerable to global economic shifts influenced by rising oil prices and inflation expectations [9] Group 9: Domestic Demand in China - In the context of increasing external uncertainties, the resilience of domestic demand in China is becoming a critical focus, with indicators suggesting a positive start to the year in terms of consumer activity and industrial recovery [10] - The potential for policy reforms aimed at boosting domestic consumption could provide structural advantages for certain Chinese assets in the face of global market volatility [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum in China needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The overall situation of the global economic and financial market is stable, but there are still certain pressures in the market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and there is room for repair. The policy environment is favorable, and the market sentiment is rising. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and long positions can continue to be held [8]. - The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but the current market lacks significant fundamental drivers, and it is expected that the market volatility will significantly increase. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the time being [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils lack bullish drivers, but the valuation is also at a low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage their positions [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage their positions [15]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is complex, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions and manage their positions [17]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys continues, and it is advisable to consider the opportunity of closing long positions when the price rebounds rapidly in the short term [19]. - The price of crude oil is supported by multiple factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [21]. - The price of polyolefins is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long [24]. - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and needs to pay attention to the medium - term situation [25]. - The price of natural rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and needs to pay attention to the inventory situation from March to April [27]. - The PVC market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory trend [30]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz is the main risk point [33]. - The price of PX is expected to rise, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [36]. - The price of PTA is expected to rise with the cost, and it is advisable to operate in the low - range and pay attention to risks [38]. - The price of ethylene glycol is expected to rise, but the high inventory may suppress the short - term increase [39]. - The price of short - fiber is supported by the cost, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the resumption of work of downstream factories [41]. - The price of bottle chips is expected to be strong with the cost, and attention should be paid to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [42]. - The fundamentals of soda ash are loose, and caution should be exercised [43]. - The glass market is mainly loose, and there is a possibility of a slight upward shock, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [45]. - The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [46]. - The pulp market has no obvious change in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work of downstream paper mills and the demand for stocking during the March 8th promotion [48]. - The price of lithium carbonate has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [50]. - The copper price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the market uncertainty is high [52]. - The aluminum price is strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [55]. - The zinc price fluctuates, and the fundamental driving force is insufficient [57]. - The lead price is weakly volatile and lacks upward momentum [59]. - The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuation [61]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - event disturbances [62]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunity in the low - cost support range for soybean meal, and it is advisable to wait and see after the price of soybean oil leaves the low - cost range [64]. - For palm oil, long positions can be considered to be reduced or liquidated [67]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, a bullish idea can be considered for rapeseed oil [68]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [71]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see [76]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [79]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to wait for the opportunity to short at a high price [81]. - For eggs, it is advisable to hold short positions in the far - month contract [83]. - The corn and corn starch market is affected by multiple factors, and corn starch may follow the corn market [87]. - The price of logs has cost support, but the current price is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the external quotation, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [90]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell 2.86% to 153060 yuan/ton. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance sheet is being reshaped, and the supply of ore is in a tight balance. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually decreasing, and there is short - term support for the price, but the short - term volatility may increase [50]. 3.2 Copper - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 101700 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.45%. The overseas macro - environment is complex, and the supply pressure at the mine end is prominent. The demand shows seasonal recovery and structural differentiation. The inventory pressure is strong, and the copper price is under pressure and fluctuates [51][52]. 3.3 Aluminum - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25145 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.65%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the aluminum price is strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [54][55]. 3.4 Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24460 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.67%. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the demand recovery is slow. The fundamentals lack driving force, and the zinc price fluctuates [57]. 3.5 Lead - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16790 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.68%. The supply recovery is slow, the consumption is weak, and the lead price is weakly volatile [59]. 3.6 Tin - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose 2.84% to 406590 yuan/ton. The supply tightness has eased, the demand is complex, and the tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to price fluctuations [61]. 3.7 Nickel - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose 1.29% to 138460 yuan/ton. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is not optimistic, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern [62]. 3.8 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal fell 0.49% to 2829 yuan/ton, and the main contract of soybean oil rose 0.46% to 8370 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [63][64]. 3.9 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by factors such as the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures and profit - taking. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to decline, and the domestic palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to reduce or liquidate long positions [65][67]. 3.10 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose, and the domestic market is affected by policies such as tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil shows different trends. A bullish idea can be considered for rapeseed oil [68]. 3.11 Cotton - The domestic cotton market fluctuates, and the new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [69][71]. 3.12 Sugar - The domestic and foreign sugar markets are affected by factors such as production and import. The overseas production reduction is beneficial to the market, while the domestic supply is sufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [73][76]. 3.13 Apple - The apple futures rose to a new high, the inventory this year is low and the quality is poor. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [77][79]. 3.14 Live Pigs - The main contract of live pigs fell 0.31% to 11130 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is still large, and it is advisable to wait for the opportunity to short at a high price [81]. 3.15 Eggs - The main contract of eggs rose 0.09% to 3209 yuan/500kg. The supply in March is expected to remain at a high level, and it is advisable to hold short positions in the far - month contract [82][83]. 3.16 Corn & Starch - The main contract of corn rose 0.21% to 2379 yuan/ton, and the main contract of corn starch rose 0.37% to 2692 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as inventory, supply and demand, and price competition. Corn starch may follow the corn market [84][87]. 3.17 Logs - The main contract of logs closed at 802.0 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.25%. The arrival volume of logs decreased, the price has a rising trend, and attention should be paid to external quotations, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [88][90].

Report Overview - Report Date: March 5, 2026 - Report Name: Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Gold and Silver - Report Author: Chen Mengyun - Author's Qualification Number: F03147376; Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022753 - Author's Email: chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn - Author's Phone Number: 021 - 50585911 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks have sharply increased, boosting the demand for gold as a traditional safe - haven asset. However, the upward inflation expectations have led to a downward revision of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, a stronger US dollar index, and profit - taking by funds, suppressing the performance of precious metals. - In the medium to long term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. Although short - term global uncertainties support the US dollar index to strengthen periodically, market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are intensifying. Coupled with the reconstruction of the global political and economic order, the diversification of global central bank reserve assets, and the continuous progress of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. - Silver, platinum, and palladium have a resonance of industrial and financial attributes, following the overall sector trend but with relatively larger fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market | Futures Contracts | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change in Closing Price | Percentage Change in Closing Price | Open Interest | Trading Volume | Spot Premium/Discount | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold 2606 | 1156.20 | 1185.38 | - 29.18 | - 2.46% | 104457 | 118821 | - 3.25 | | Shanghai Gold 2604 | 1153.06 | 1182.00 | - 28.94 | - 2.45% | 126419 | 418498 | - 0.11 | | Shanghai Silver 2606 | 21415 | 24061 | - 2646 | - 11.00% | 169820 | 598151 | 146 | | Shanghai Silver 2604 | 21645 | 24431 | - 2786 | - 11.40% | 161166 | 713888 | - 84 | [2] Spot Market | Spot Contracts | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1181.56 | 1199.51 | - 17.95 | - 1.50% | | London Gold (USD/Troy Ounce) | 5088.52 | 5321.43 | - 232.91 | - 4.38% | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 21427 | 23952 | - 2525 | - 10.54% | | London Silver (USD/Troy Ounce) | 82.01 | 89.26 | - 7.25 | - 8.12% | [2] Spread and Ratio | Indicator | Current Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 | 3.14 | 3.38 | | Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 | - 230.00 | - 370.00 | | Gold/Silver (Spot) | 55.14 | 50.08 | | Shanghai Gold/London Gold | 1.04 | 1.05 | | Shanghai Silver/London Silver | 1.18 | 1.18 | [2] Inventory | Inventory Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory (kg, daily) | 105060 | 105060 | 0 | | SHFE Silver Inventory (kg, daily) | 294823 | 307484 | - 12661 | | COMEX Gold Inventory (troy ounces, daily) | 33071598 | 33171136 | - 99538 | | COMEX Silver Inventory (troy ounces, daily) | 352219872 | 355173837 | - 2953965 | [2] Related Market Indicators | Indicator | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 99.27 | 98.55 | 0.72 | | S&P 500 Index | 6816.63 | 6881.62 | - 64.99 | | 10 - year US Treasury Yield | 4.06% | 4.05% | 0.01% | | Brent Crude Oil | 81.99 | 78.07 | 3.92 | | USD/CNY | 6.9120 | 6.8997 | 0.0123 | [2] Derivatives | Derivative Type | Current Value | Previous Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SPDR Gold ETF Holdings (tons) | 1081 | 1099 | - 18 | | SLV Silver ETF Holdings (tons) | 15948 | 15981 | - 34 | | CFTC Speculators' Net Position (Gold) | 159177 | 159915 | - 738 | | CFTC Speculators' Net Position (Silver) | 22260 | 24003 | - 1743 | [2] Macro News - The US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US Navy will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz at an appropriate time. - The world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust's holdings decreased by 18 tons from the previous day, the largest single - day reduction since April 2013, with the current holdings at 1081.038 tons. - The Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin clarified that the thousands of Kurds who launched a ground offensive in Iran are Iranian Kurds who fled their country and settled in Iraq before and are now returning to launch an "uprising". - The US Senate's first vote on the "War Powers Resolution" on Iran did not pass the vote to stop Trump from striking Iran without congressional authorization. - An advisor to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that time is in Iran's favor in the war, and Iran is ready for a long - term war. - White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said that President Trump is discussing with his advisors the US role in Iran after the military conflict. Trump has not ruled out the possibility of sending ground troops, but it is not currently part of the combat plan. - Regarding the Fed: Milan believes it is appropriate to continue cutting interest rates at the March meeting and has not changed the outlook due to the Iran conflict. It is appropriate to cut interest rates by one percentage point this year. Hamak said that interest rates may be kept unchanged for a long time. The Beige Book shows that the overall economic outlook is optimistic, and most regions expect the economy to grow slightly to moderately in the next few months. The White House has submitted the nomination of Wash to be the Fed Chairman to the Senate, who is believed to replace Milan's seat on the board [3].

2026年03月05日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 观 消 3、美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变，在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预 期。美联储主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米兰立场一致。 息 4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付业务功能监管，充分发挥行政、自律互补作用，塑造合规致远的行业健康生态。常 态长效做好优化支付服务工作，扎实推进支付普惠，提供便捷安全的支付服务。提升支付系统服 务质效，以创新推动行业提质升级。 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-505 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the 1990s, global foreign exchange reserves have steadily increased, driven by geopolitical economic risks and the development of global financial markets, leading to a diversification trend in the choice of reserve currencies by central banks. While the dominance of the US dollar remains solid, its share is continuously declining, and the status of emerging reserve currencies like the renminbi is gradually rising. Geopolitical competition, the need for financial risk diversification, and changes in global trade structures are collectively pushing the international monetary system towards a more diversified and balanced direction [2][4]. Group 1: Thematic Focus - The upcoming issue of Tsinghua Financial Review will focus on "Restructuring the International Reserve Landscape: Challenges to the Dollar and the Return of Gold," aiming to explore the structural changes in the global official reserve system, the macroeconomic basis for the revival of gold's monetary attributes, and the long-term impacts of the "de-dollarization" process on the evolution of the international monetary order [4][6]. Group 2: Submission Directions - The journal invites contributions on various topics, including the transformation of the global diversified reserve system, historical evolution of global reserve currency patterns, opportunities and challenges in resetting the international monetary system, central bank gold reserve increases and foreign exchange reserve management, the current status and future trends of the dollar's global reserve position, the logic and impact of central banks increasing gold reserves, changes in the reserve status of major global currencies and their causes, the impact of new reserve currency patterns on the internationalization of the renminbi, and trends in the diversification of international reserve assets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following military actions involving the U.S. and Iran. Initially, gold was seen as a safe-haven asset, leading to a price surge, but concerns about prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential inflationary pressures have caused a subsequent decline in prices. The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish despite short-term volatility [1][4][6]. Group 1: Recent Geopolitical Events - On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a preemptive military strike against Iran, which led to retaliatory actions from Iran, further escalating tensions in the region [2]. - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil exports, was declared off-limits to shipping by Iran, affecting approximately 20% of global oil transportation [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Price Fluctuations - Following the military conflict, gold prices initially surged to a peak of $5,419 per ounce on March 2, driven by heightened risk aversion. However, by March 3, prices fell to around $5,260 due to market concerns about prolonged disruptions and inflationary impacts, which could delay U.S. interest rate cuts [4]. - The volatility in gold prices was also attributed to liquidity squeezes and technical corrections, as stock market declines prompted institutional selling of gold to cover margin calls [4]. - The nomination of hawkish candidates to the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about potential interest rate hikes, further pressuring gold prices as the dollar strengthened [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - In the short term (3-6 months), gold prices are expected to remain volatile, with support levels identified at $4,800 and $5,260-$5,300. A potential escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict could push prices above $5,600 [7]. - In the medium to long term (over 1 year), gold is anticipated to maintain a strong position due to ongoing monetary easing, a trend towards de-dollarization, and persistent geopolitical risks, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2026 [7]. - Key variables to monitor include developments in the Strait of Hormuz, central bank gold purchasing data, and changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [8].