地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 热点品种 期市综述 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 截止 8 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，苹果涨超 2%，铁矿石、玉米、 线材、BR 橡胶涨超 1%；跌幅方面，集运欧线跌超 3%，碳酸锂、鸡蛋跌超 2%，对 二甲苯、生猪、油菜籽、短纤、PTA、棕榈油跌超 1%。沪深 300 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In July, the decline in profits of large-scale industrial enterprises narrowed, and the profits of the manufacturing industry, especially high-tech manufacturing, rebounded significantly year-on-year. Whether this trend can continue is worthy of attention. The implementation of anti-involution policies and the narrowing of the year-on-year decline in PPI are beneficial to the year-on-year recovery of industrial enterprise profits [3][14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Operating Income and Profit - From January to July, large-scale industrial enterprises achieved operating income of 78.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. In July, the operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year. The total profit was 402.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year-on-year [1][4] - From January to July, private industrial enterprises' total profit increased by 1.8% year-on-year, and in July, their profit increased by 2.6% year-on-year [4] - From January to July, large-scale manufacturing enterprises achieved a total profit of 3.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In July, manufacturing profits increased by 6.8% year-on-year, 5.4 percentage points faster than in June [2][7] - In July, the profit of raw material manufacturing turned from a 5.0% decline in June to a 36.9% increase. The consumer goods manufacturing industry decreased by 4.7%, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to June. The profit of high-tech manufacturing turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase [2][7] - Industries with relatively fast year-on-year profit growth from January to July include the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (5175.9%), non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry (39.1%), etc. Industries with relatively large year-on-year profit declines include the coal mining and washing industry (-55.2%), ferrous metal mining and dressing industry (-33.7%), etc. [8] Operating Income Profit Margin - From January to July, the operating income profit margin of large-scale industrial enterprises was 5.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The manufacturing industry was 4.46%, slightly higher than the same period last year but about one percentage point lower than the same period in 2019. The mining industry was 16.75%, still higher than the same period in 2019. The production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water was 6.92%, better than the same period last year and higher than the same period in 2019 [2][9] Asset - Liability Ratio - At the end of July, the asset - liability ratio of large-scale industrial enterprises was 57.9%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points. The asset - liability ratio of large-scale manufacturing enterprises was 57.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage point. Both are at the highest levels for the same period in the past decade [3][10] Accounts Receivable and Inventory - At the end of July, the average collection period of accounts receivable of large-scale industrial enterprises was 69.8 days, a year-on-year increase of 3.4 days, and that of large-scale manufacturing enterprises was 70.8 days, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 days, both at the highest levels for the same period since 2015, putting pressure on corporate cash flow [3][13] - From January to July, the cumulative year-on-year growth of finished product inventory of large-scale industrial enterprises was 2.4%. Industrial enterprises controlled a small year-on-year increase in finished product inventory under the circumstances of falling ex-factory prices, negative year-on-year net profit growth, longer accounts receivable periods, and rising debt ratios [3][13]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with factors such as cost support and anti - involution policy as positives, while weak demand is a negative. For PP, the fundamentals are also neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policy as positives and weak demand as a negative [4][6][8][9] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. July exports were $321.78 billion, up 7.2% year - on - year. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is below expectations, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7310 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 54, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with anti - involution policy expectations rising again, weak agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policy are positive factors; weak demand is a negative factor [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in macro data. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7050 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 29, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, neutral [8] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), neutral [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [8] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with anti - involution policy expectations rising again, slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory [8] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policy are positive factors; weak demand is a negative factor [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7310 (-40), the 01 contract price is 7364 (-38), the basis is - 54 (-2), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), and the social inventory is 562,000 tons (+6,000) [11] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7050 (+0), the 01 contract price is 7021 (-25), the basis is 29 (+25), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), and the social inventory is 260,000 tons (-1,000) [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18] Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [7][10] - **Risk Points**: Sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10]

8月28日上午，中信银行召开2025年半年度业绩发布会。在发布会上，对于上半年的业绩，该行管理层 定调为"稳中有进，难中求成"。该行行长芦苇表示，中信银行是自上市以来极少数每年都实现利润正增 长的股份行。下半年将进一步强化大抓营收的导向，从进一步抓好大类资产配置、进一步抓好负债精细 化管理和进一步推动非息收入增长三个方面发力。 值得一提的是，他还数次提及"反内卷"。在他看来，反内卷政策有利于规范银行业的竞争，引导银行业 把握好金融支持实体经济和保持自身健康发展。 谈业绩： 持续把故事讲好不容易 根据中信银行8月27日发布的半年报，今年上半年，该行营业收入为1057.62亿元，同比下降2.99%；归 属于该行股东的净利润364.78亿元，同比增长2.78%。截至6月末，该行不良贷款率1.16%，与上年末持 平；资产规模则增长3.42%至98584.66亿元。 "一个故事讲一年不难，但是持续讲，而且要讲好，可不容易。"在业绩发布会上，芦苇感慨道，中信银 行是自上市以来极少数每年都实现利润正增长的股份行。 他表示，中信银行坚持不以风险下沉或削弱风险抵御能力来换取短期利润增长，业绩增长的"成色""底 色"更足。同时， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2510, it will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2510, it will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On August 27, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,760 (up 1390 from the previous day), the LME Nickel was 15,190 (down 90), the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,850 (up 10). The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,150 (up 1700), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,400 (up 1650), 1 imported nickel was 122,300 (up 1750), and nickel beans were 124,350 (up 1750). Cold - rolled stainless steel prices in different regions remained unchanged [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 22, the SHFE nickel inventory was 26,943 tons, with futures inventory at 22,552 tons (a decrease of 19 tons and an increase of 411 tons respectively). On August 27, LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (up 72), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,025 (down 61), and the total inventory was 231,245 (up 11) [14][15]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 22, the Wuxi inventory was 61,460 tons, the Foshan inventory was 315,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,091,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons). The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons). On August 27, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 100,851 (down 175) [19][20]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 27, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. High - nickel ferronickel was 942 yuan/nickel point (up 5.5), and low - nickel ferronickel was 3440 yuan/ton (up 20) [23]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost was 13,041, the scrap steel production cost was 13,602, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,747 [25]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 122,341 yuan/ton [28]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There is an expectation of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and there are anti - involution policies. The cost line has support at 120,000 [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips [1] - Treasury Bonds: Hold and wait [1] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Weakening with oscillations [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Recommend holding a moderate long position at low levels [1] - Aluminum: Recommend buying on dips after a pullback [1] - Nickel: Recommend waiting or shorting on rallies [1] - Tin: Range trading [1] - Gold: Range trading [1] - Silver: Range trading [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Short 01 contract and long 05 contract for arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Oscillating [1] - Styrene: Oscillating [1] - Rubber: Oscillating [1] - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Methanol: Oscillating [1] - Polyolefins: Wide - range oscillations [1] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillating [1] - Apples: Oscillating [1] - Jujubes: Oscillating [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Short on rallies [1] - Eggs: Short on rallies [1] - Corn: Wide - range oscillations [1] - Soybean Meal: Range oscillations [1] - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and gives corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Industry Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate. Coal prices continue to decline, with production gradually resuming after rainfall. Downstream is cautious, and it is recommended to trade within the range, with JM2601 focusing on [1110 - 1250] and J2601 on [1610 - 1780] [5] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. Futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamental data shows changes in demand, production, and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range, with RB2510 focusing on [3100 - 3200] [5] - **Glass**: Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view. The main 01 contract is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 1150 - 1200 range breakthrough. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices [6] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. Positive news from the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boost copper prices. Although there are some constraints in the short - term supply and demand, there is potential for price increases in the future. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels, with the short - term operating range at 79500 - 81000 yuan/ton [8][9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of bauxite is supported, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. With the arrival of the demand peak season and marginal improvement in inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [8][9][10] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [12] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the reference range of the SHFE Tin 09 contract at 25.9 - 27.6 million yuan/ton [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Expected to oscillate. Powell's dovish speech and other factors support precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips after a price correction, with the reference range of the SHFE Silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and the SHFE Gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. High inventory, uncertain export sustainability, and large upstream production pressure lead to a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5100 level pressure on the 01 contract [15][16][17] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate. Spot price increases slow down, and there is a short - term correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 level support on the 01 contract [17][18] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 7300 level pressure [19][20] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. New rubber supply is slow, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15400 - 16500 range [20][21] - **Urea**: Expected to be neutral. Supply is increasing, demand is scattered, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level at 1680 - 1720 [22] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, demand has some positive factors, but port inventory is accumulating rapidly [23] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate. The cost of coal - based olefins provides strong support, supply and demand show different trends for polyethylene and polypropylene, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - 7500 range for L2601 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2601 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and there is a large inventory pressure in the short term, while the far - month contract may be relatively strong [26][27][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to prepare for hedging [29] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory of Fuji apples is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation based on low inventory and growth factors [30] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate. The growth of jujubes is in the expansion period, and it is expected that the price will oscillate upward in the near future [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: Overall under pressure. There is a short - term expectation of price increases at the end of the month, but the supply is large in the medium to long term. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on 11 and 01 contracts and wait for rallies to add short positions, and also pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [32][33][34] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The current supply is sufficient, and the long - term high supply situation may be difficult to reverse. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the main 10 contract or hold put options, and take a bearish view on the 12 and 01 contracts [34] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The supply is sufficient in the short term, and new corn production is expected to be good. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the 11 contract and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to have limited upside. Domestic arrivals are abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure, but there is support at the bottom. It is expected to trade within the [3030, 3130] range in the short term [35][38] - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are mixed. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the support and pressure levels for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil as mentioned, and also pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage strategy [39][40][41][42][43][44][45]

Market Overview - The A-share Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen since the second half of 2025, surpassing 3,800 points and reaching a ten-year high, with the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] - The bond market has seen long-term government bond yields rise after a prolonged bull market, leading to adjustments in long-term bonds and putting pressure on bond fund net values, with over 600 bond funds experiencing losses this year [1] Commodity Market - The commodity market is exhibiting a volatile trend of sharp rises and falls under the expectations of anti-involution policies [2] Investment Insights - In the context of rising market sentiment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, key questions for Q4 2025 include whether the A-share bull market can continue, which asset classes are worth focusing on, and the impact of anti-involution policies on commodity prices [3][10] - Notable speakers for the Alpha online closed-door private sessions include influential analysts such as Guo Jin Securities' Chief Strategist, who will discuss the potential new cycle of the A-share bull market and which assets are most worthy of attention [3][5] Expert Contributions - Xu Xiaoqing, Chief Economist at Dunhe Asset Management, will share insights on macro trends and asset allocation strategies for Q4 2025, leveraging his extensive experience in fixed income research [7][9] - The sessions will include interactive Q&A segments, allowing participants to engage directly with the experts on topics of interest [4][8]

Group 1: Changan Automobile (000625) - In H1 2025, Changan Automobile achieved revenue of 72.691 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.291 billion yuan, down 19.09%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 26.36% to 1.477 billion yuan [6][7] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit of 939 million yuan, a decrease of 43.93% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 693 million yuan, down 34.40% year-on-year. Revenue for the quarter was 38.531 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 2.94% quarter-on-quarter but a 12.79% increase year-on-year [7] - The company plans to launch three new models in Q4 2025, with a clear strategy for global expansion, aiming for overseas sales of 1 million vehicles by the end of the year [8][9] Group 2: Sailun Tire (601058) - In H1 2025, Sailun Tire achieved revenue of 17.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.05%, but the net profit decreased by 14.90% to 1.831 billion yuan. In Q2 2025, revenue was 9.175 billion yuan, up 16.76% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 29.11% to 792 million yuan [10][11] - The company benefited from overseas market expansion, with tire production reaching 40.6 million units in H1 2025, a 14.66% increase year-on-year, and sales of 39.14 million units, up 13.32% [11] - Sailun Tire is focusing on enhancing its international influence through increased R&D investment and product innovation, with a notable presence in the global tire brand value rankings [11][12] Group 3: Xinjieneng (605111) - In H1 2025, Xinjieneng reported revenue of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.44%, and a net profit of 235 million yuan, up 8.03%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 207 million yuan, down 3.22% [14][15] - The SGT MOS product line's revenue share increased to 45.21%, indicating strong market competitiveness and application in various strategic fields [16] - The company is focusing on emerging markets such as automotive electronics, AI servers, and robotics, with significant growth in these areas expected [17] Group 4: Lizhu Group (000513) - In H1 2025, Lizhu Group achieved revenue of 6.272 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.17%, while net profit increased by 9.40% to 1.281 billion yuan. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.258 billion yuan, up 8.91% [22][23] - The company is experiencing growth in its chemical preparation segment, with a focus on new product launches and improved operational efficiency [23][24] - Multiple products are entering the harvest phase, contributing to the overall positive performance [24] Group 5: Anhui Heli (600761) - In H1 2025, Anhui Heli reported revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.18%, with net profit reaching 796 million yuan, down 4.60%. Overseas revenue was 4.016 billion yuan, up 15.20% [27][28] - The company is enhancing its international presence with a new overseas manufacturing facility and a strong network of over 300 overseas agents [28] - Anhui Heli is focusing on electric and intelligent logistics solutions, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales and strategic partnerships in the logistics sector [29][30] Group 6: Domestic Industrial Profit Data - In July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.8% [32][33] - The report indicates that the "anti-involution" policy is affecting profit structures across various sectors, with upstream raw material manufacturing seeing a recovery in profit margins [34] - Inventory levels are decreasing, with nominal inventory growth slowing to 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in production and a passive consumption of inventory [35] Group 7: Mechanical Equipment Industry - In July 2025, the overall sales of forklifts reached 118,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with both domestic and overseas sales showing double-digit growth [36][37] - The growth in forklift demand is linked to improvements in manufacturing and logistics sectors, with positive macroeconomic indicators supporting future sales [38] - Companies like Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group are expanding their global presence and enhancing their product offerings in intelligent logistics [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there has been phased replenishment by downstream players, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. However, the sustainability of this reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly show a wide - range volatile trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass was 1064 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The main basis was - 111 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.83% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1064 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit has declined, and the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down. The start - up rate and output have dropped to the lowest levels in the same historical period [2]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same historical period and showing signs of stabilization and recovery [22][24]. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [28][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.28% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [42]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production was expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [43]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal real - estate demand remains weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in the second quarter, with expectations for gradual profit improvement due to industry reforms and market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75.4975 million yuan, down 46.05% year-on-year [1][2]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 638 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.38% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.25%. Net profit for Q2 was 45.1746 million yuan, down 37.17% year-on-year but up 48.98% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Industry Context - The chemical and petrochemical sectors experienced weak demand, contributing to the company's revenue and gross margin decline. The company adopted an "order-based production" strategy to manage operations [1][2]. - The steel industry is entering a critical phase regarding the "anti-involution" strategy, with potential for improved profitability if production cuts are implemented effectively [2]. Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates continued recovery in performance for the second half of 2025, with projected net profits of 242 million yuan, 290 million yuan, and 330 million yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [3]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 5.93 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 13.8 for 2025, reflecting its leading position in the stainless steel market [3].