Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the real estate market in China is under pressure, with expectations for policy changes to stimulate demand, including mortgage subsidies for new home buyers and tax rebates for borrowers [4] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to see a valuation recovery as the fundamentals of cyclical building materials companies have bottomed out [4] - Cement prices are expected to rise in the short term due to supply constraints from seasonal production policies, despite a recent decline in demand [5] - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand, with high inventory levels among intermediaries, and the need for policy changes to improve market conditions [6] - The fiberglass sector is experiencing growth driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [6] - The consumer building materials segment has reached a profitability bottom, with strong price increase demands from companies following years of competition [6] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement market prices have decreased recently, with a production volume of 148 million tons in October, down 15.8% year-on-year [10] - Demand is still under pressure, but there is a slight improvement expected in November due to project rush [10] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement [17] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, and the industry is closely monitoring policy changes for potential recovery [17] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is seeing price increases of 5%-10% due to collaborative pricing efforts among manufacturers, with strong demand from the AI sector [6] Consumer Building Materials - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price pressure expected, and companies are actively seeking price increases [6]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided Core View of the Report - There is a possibility that PPI will start to rise in 2026, driven by multiple factors including supply - demand conditions and macro - policies, and the capital market needs to assess its impact [1][3][5] Summary by Related Content PPI Cycle and Driving Factors - The PPI has a cycle of about 5 years in the past 20 years and is highly positively correlated with industrial product prices. The current cycle started in 2020, reached a peak in Q4 2021, and has been in deflation since Q4 2022. 2026 may be a turning point [1] - Past PPI upward cycles were driven by supply - demand factors, macro - policies, or both. In 2016, supply - side reform and monetized shantytown renovation led to price increases. In 2020 - 2021, "double - loose" policies and supply interruptions had the same effect [3] - In 2026, both supply - demand and macro - policies support rising industrial product prices. Domestically, new projects are expected to start as it's the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the "anti - involution" policy will control supply. Overseas, the US is in the process of re - industrialization, and private investment in equipment and intellectual property is growing. The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates [4][5] Impact on the Bond Market - In Q3, supply - side reform news briefly affected the bond market, but the price increase was not sustained. In 2026, if PPI turns positive, it may change market expectations of monetary policy and have a negative impact on the bond market [7] Impact on the Stock Market - The cycle sector's performance is usually in line with PPI recovery, but there have been deviations. Currently, the sector has risen significantly before PPI improvement, and the short - term rally may be over - hyped. Future performance depends on whether commodity prices can be maintained or rise. Once PPI recovers, it will be positive for the cycle sector and the overall A - share market [10][11]

磷化工行业专家电话会 20251120 摘要 工信部推动反内卷政策，但磷化工行业供大于求局面难改，预计 2028 年后市场或好转，期间缺乏竞争力的企业或将退出，行业整合加速。 磷肥行业经历供给侧改革后，总产能于 2024 年底达 2,350 万吨。受出 口法检和配额制影响，二元肥和三元肥出口受限，行业面临有价无市的 困境。 中国磷矿石储量分布不均，开采成本上升，叠加国内外市场波动，导致 部分地区供应紧张，推高生产成本，加剧下游企业经营压力。 磷复肥作为农业刚需，消费需求稳定。2025 至 2026 年行业整体预计 保持稳定，但需关注出口政策调整，如出口放开时间和配额量变化。 国内磷矿石开采产能逐年增长，预计 2027 年总产能达 1.8 亿吨以上。 高品位矿属于战略资源，开采审批严格，倾向于国有企业开发，且要求 就地转化率不低于 80%。 高品位磷矿石价格自 2022 年以来稳步上涨，供应紧张局面难改，预计 价格将维持稳定。中低品位磷矿石价格受季节性影响波动较大。 工业级磷酸一铵（公安）受益于新能源需求增长，市场前景乐观。预计 到 2027 年国内公安总产能将达 600 万吨以上，价格受成本上涨影响有 所提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor sentiment is significantly influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical situations, leading to rapid rotation of market hotspots and a likely continuation of a volatile trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Sector Recommendations - The market's fluctuating risk appetite may drive investors towards dividend stocks for defensive positioning [1] - Concerns regarding the AI bubble are gradually diminishing following recent market corrections, presenting new allocation opportunities in the technology sector [1] - The effects of "anti-involution" policies are becoming evident, with changes in supply and demand dynamics potentially leading to a sustained rebound in cyclical stocks as commodity prices rise [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.02% [1] Investment Strategies - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in current market conditions, suggesting that the market adjustment has begun to show potential for recovery [2] - The firm noted that the current market valuation is close to a "reasonable" central point, and if there is an overshoot, investors could consider increasing their positions [2] - Recommended sectors include low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while continuing to hold large financial stocks to reduce volatility [2] Monetary Policy Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent issuance of offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong aims to stabilize the offshore RMB exchange rate and curb speculative trading [3] - The issuance is intended to tighten offshore RMB liquidity, thereby increasing the cost of short-selling and preventing a consensus on unilateral depreciation [3] - The central bank's strategy is based on three considerations: managing liquidity to avoid excessive market fluctuations, enhancing the competitiveness of the offshore RMB bond market, and preventing abnormal cross-border capital flows to maintain financial stability [3] Policy Focus - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the current "anti-involution" policies are likely to focus more on key sectors with global "rare earth-like" characteristics, particularly in industries like photovoltaics, batteries, and automobiles, where low-price competition has intensified [4] - The characteristics of these key sectors include holding dominant capacity and technology in the global market, facing challenges from disorderly expansion and low-price competition, and having potential for long-term growth driven by external demand [4] - The policies aim to ensure healthy industry development and leverage these sectors as strategic tools or bargaining chips between nations [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% last Friday [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Key sectors showing gains included the shipbuilding sector and AI applications, while battery, silicon energy, and lithium mining sectors faced declines [1] Group 2: Securities Insights - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in current market conditions [1] - CITIC Securities noted that the central bank's issuance of offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong could help stabilize the offshore RMB exchange rate [2] - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the current "anti-involution" policies may increasingly focus on key areas with global "rare earth-like" characteristics, particularly in industries facing low-price competition [3] Group 3: Policy Implications - The issuance of offshore central bank bills is aimed at tightening offshore RMB liquidity, increasing short-selling costs, and stabilizing exchange rate expectations [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to address industries that dominate global capacity and technology, face chaotic expansion, and have long-term growth potential driven by external demand [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in various industries, particularly in technology and consumption sectors, with a focus on the resilience of growth in the face of macroeconomic challenges [5][9][17] - The investment strategy for 2026 highlights a shift from extreme growth to balanced allocation, with specific attention to sectors like artificial intelligence, traditional industries benefiting from AI integration, and consumer sectors poised for recovery [9][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,834.89, down 2.45%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12,538.07, down 3.41% [3][10] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.14 and 47.93, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][11] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have experienced slight declines, with the Dow down 0.67% and the S&P 500 down 0.45% [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines a new recovery cycle in the machinery sector, with a notable 30.12% increase in the CITIC Machinery Index, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 14.11 percentage points [14][15] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements, with a focus on AI and autonomous driving technologies [17][20] Key Data Updates - The lithium battery sector has shown significant growth, with a 12.81% increase in revenue and a 28.38% increase in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong demand in both power and energy storage batteries [28][29] - The agricultural sector has faced challenges, with pig prices declining by 11.46% month-on-month in October 2025, reflecting supply and demand dynamics [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong recovery potential, such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, while also considering the impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [25][27] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in the AI sector, particularly in companies involved in AI hardware and software, as well as those in the semiconductor supply chain [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock market correction has raised concerns, with significant declines in major indices, but there is a notable influx of capital into ETFs as investors seek to capitalize on lower prices [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a substantial drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.45% to 3834.89 points, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices declining by 3.41% and 4.02% respectively [1]. - Over the past week, the Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly decline of 3.9%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices dropped by 5.03% and 5.96% respectively [2]. Capital Inflow into ETFs - Despite the market downturn, over 700 billion yuan flowed into stock ETFs in the past week, indicating a strong buying interest [3]. - On November 21, the day of the market drop, more than 400 billion yuan was invested in ETFs, with significant inflows into various major ETFs [3]. External Factors Impacting the Market - Multiple fund companies attribute the market correction to external factors, particularly the declining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising concerns over an AI bubble, which have transmitted pessimism from overseas markets to China [5][6]. - The recent U.S. employment data showed a paradox, with job growth exceeding expectations but the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [7]. Industry Analysis - Certain sectors, such as batteries, banks, communications, and coal, have shown slight net outflows in their respective ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4]. - The technology sector, particularly related to AI, has faced significant pressure, with concerns over valuation and market sentiment affecting stock performance [6][7]. Future Outlook - Fund companies maintain a positive long-term outlook for Chinese assets, suggesting a "slow bull" market trend despite short-term volatility [8]. - The balance between AI capital investment and output is crucial, with expectations that ongoing technological advancements will support long-term growth [8][9]. - The fundamental factors, including real estate stabilization and the impact of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support a sustained upward trend in the A-share market [9].

智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研究报告称，2024年以来，光伏、电池、汽车等行业低价竞争加剧， 引发政策关注。"反内卷"从部门倡导逐步制度化。本轮"反内卷"政策或更加聚焦于具备全球"类稀土"特 征的重点领域，或有三个特征：一是在全球市场占据产能与技术主导权，具备"不可替代性"；二是存在 无序扩张与低价竞争的现实困境，威胁产业可健康发展；三是具备外部需求驱动的中长期增长空间，具 备演变为国家之间的战略工具或议价筹码的潜力。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 一、从政府工作报告到"十五五"规划："反内卷"政策脉络 2010年以前稀土行业内部陷入无序竞争，稀土价格持续低迷，"白菜价"出口不仅造成资源浪费，也导致 我国在全球稀土价值链中处于低端位置。2014年，工信部正式启动组建大型稀土企业集团的政策部署。 到2016年，全国稀土产业基本完成由六大国有集团主导的整合框架。2021年底中国稀土集团组建完成， 与北方稀土形成"一南一北"双龙头格局，显著改善了过去低效重复建设和无序竞争的局面。随着产业格 局优化与整合机制成熟，中国稀土成为全球高科技产业链的重要战略环节。在中美科技竞争加剧背景 下，稀土作为中国可控的重要资源杠杆，具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The private equity sector is increasing its positions despite market volatility, with a notable rise in stock private equity positions reaching over 81% as of November 14, indicating a strong confidence in the A-share market's long-term potential [1][2]. Group 1: Private Equity Positioning - As of November 14, the stock private equity position index reached 81.13%, up 1.05 percentage points from November 7, marking a continuous three-week period above the 80% threshold [2]. - The proportion of fully invested (over 80% positions) private equity funds rose to 65.9%, while those with medium positions (50-80%) decreased to 18.97% [4]. - The increase in positions among medium-position private equity funds has been a key driver for the rising position index [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trends - Analysts suggest that the recent market fluctuations indicate that risks have been sufficiently released, reducing the likelihood of significant downward movement in the market [5]. - The market is expected to remain in a rebalancing state, with a shift from valuation-driven factors to fundamental drivers as companies begin to realize their earnings [5]. - The sentiment in the market is still cautious, providing opportunities for increased positions during this volatile period [5]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - Private equity funds are favoring growth sectors such as technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as cyclical sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [6]. - There is a focus on AI as a transformative force in demand creation, with expectations of significant growth potential in this area [6]. - Traditional industries are anticipated to see profit upgrades due to enhanced export competitiveness and recovery in domestic demand, with private equity firms looking to capitalize on opportunities in AI applications, upstream resources, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6].