Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the industry style is shifting from technology growth to upstream resources, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumption as the PPI decline narrows and turns positive [1] - In the MSCI China A-share ESG sector, three main directions are highlighted: cyclical recovery industries such as energy metals, wind power equipment, and engineering machinery; technology growth areas like AI computing power and energy storage; and consumer recovery sectors including food and beverage, social services, and personal care [1] - The anti-involution policy is improving the supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, combined with resilient overseas demand, indicating a continued trend of profit recovery in ESG-related industries [1] Group 2 - The MSCI ESG ETF (159621) tracks the MSCI China A-share Renminbi ESG General Index (MSC278), which selects listed companies with robust ESG performance and positive improvement trends from the Chinese A-share market [1] - The index employs an industry-balanced distribution strategy, leaning towards core asset allocation, aiming to reflect the overall market performance of high-quality Chinese A-share companies that adhere to ESG investment principles [1]

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5362.85 | | 52 周最高 | 5449.43 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《地产政策托底需求，关注反内卷落地 情况》 - 2025.12.29 建材行业报告 （2025.12.27-2026.01.04） 地产政策持续落地，关注建材龙头估值修复机遇 发布时间：2026-01-05 投资要点 上周财政部、国家税务总局于 2025 年 12 月 30 日联合发布《关 于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人销售住房的增值税征 收细则，个人将购买不足 2 年的住房对外销售的，按照 3%的征收率全 额缴纳增值税，个人将购买 2 年以上（含 2 年）的住房对外销售的， 免征增值税。此次政策能够有效减轻房东经济压力，也使得房屋出售 的成本快速下降、促进市场流通。 地产政策持续释放，一方面托底需求，另一方面 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" investment rating for the express logistics industry, highlighting the expected orderly competition and gradual optimization of the competitive landscape [1] - The express logistics sector is projected to benefit from the growth of e-commerce and reverse logistics, with a significant increase in business volume and revenue in 2025 [7][12] - The average price in the express industry has shown signs of recovery due to anti-involution policies, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in prices [18][24] Group 2: Industry Overview - In 2025, the total express business volume reached 180.74 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, while total revenue was 1,355.06 billion yuan, up 7.1% [7][12] - The growth in express logistics is attributed to the expansion of e-commerce into lower-tier markets and the increasing demand for reverse logistics [12][14] - The average price per package has decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of low-cost e-commerce and live-streaming sales [12][14] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major companies like SF Express and YTO Express have seen an increase in market share, with SF Express's market share rising by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [24][31] - The competitive dynamics have shifted, with leading companies maintaining growth while smaller firms face pressure to adapt to pricing strategies [24][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of head companies having stable cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them as quasi-dividend stocks [8][12] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the express logistics industry is currently undervalued, with expectations for improved profitability as competition stabilizes and pricing levels stabilize [7][12] - Key investment targets include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, which are expected to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [7][12] - The cross-border logistics segment is also highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in Southeast Asia and emerging markets, driven by the expansion of e-commerce [7][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The US military action in Venezuela is an upgrade of the "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" strategy, which has led to a sharp increase in global risk aversion and a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. However, in the long - term, it may accelerate the erosion of the US dollar's credit. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar, but the trend is non - linear [4]. - The domestic PMI in December exceeded expectations, driven by the recovery of supply and demand and price stabilization. The overseas market focuses on the next Fed chair nominee. For silver, it's recommended that holders take profits and non - holders wait for a pullback [2]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be strong but with limited upside due to multiple factors. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today, and medium - term long positions can be held [5][6]. - Platinum and palladium prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and index adjustments, but the long - term bullish foundation remains. Gold and silver are in adjustment in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper prices are expected to be affected by volume and price changes. Zinc, tin, lead, and other metals have different market outlooks based on their fundamentals [9][13][15]. - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a neutral pattern and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices are affected by inventory and demand. Ferroalloys may correct but are supported by cost [26][27][30]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are in a neutral situation and can be observed first. LPG may be supported in the short - term by geopolitical factors. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by supply and demand and cost. Methanol is likely to start an upward - trending phase. PP and PE are in a supply - demand double - reduction pattern. Asphalt may be strong at the opening. Urea has a price increase expectation for the 05 contract. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate [32][34][39]. - Hog prices are expected to be supported in the short - term by consumption and supply changes. Oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Oils may strengthen slightly. Cotton prices may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar prices are expected to open slightly lower. Apples may wait for a pullback to go long. Red dates are expected to be in a low - level shock [65][67][68] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: Pay attention to geopolitical risks such as the US attack on Venezuela and the situation in Iran. The reset of the commodity benchmark index poses a selling risk to gold and silver [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The US military action in Venezuela has led to an increase in global risk aversion. The US dollar may show a short - long and long - short pattern, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar [4]. - Stock Index: The post - holiday capital environment supports the stock index, but there are many factors restricting its upside, and it is expected to be strong but with limited space in the short - term [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The new regulations on bond fund redemption fees are beneficial to the bond market, and the US military action in Venezuela may also benefit the bond market. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: Prices were volatile last week. In the short - term, they will be affected by the US military action in Venezuela and index adjustments. In the long - term, the bullish foundation remains. It's recommended to be vigilant against callback risks in the short - term [9][13]. - Gold & Silver: They are in adjustment in the short - term. Gold should pay attention to the support levels, and silver has adjustment pressure. They are bullish in the long - term [14][15]. - Copper: The external copper price was stable during the holiday. The US - Venezuela event has limited impact on the domestic opening. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [16][18]. - Zinc: The upper space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [19]. - Tin: The high - price negative feedback has come, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [20]. - Carbonate Lithium: In the short - term, the price is driven by market sentiment, but there is a risk of large fluctuations. In the long - term, it has the opportunity to go long on dips [20][22]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and it has the value of long - term position building on dips. Polysilicon prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rise [22][24]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17600, with strong support at 16500 [24]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil: Steel production has slightly increased, and the market is in a weak shock pattern. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil 2605 is between 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron Ore: The inventory continues to accumulate. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is expected to fluctuate [27]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented. The coking coal inventory structure has improved, and the future price depends on the domestic mine resumption. The coke supply - demand structure may improve if the steel mills' production increases [28][29]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They may correct in the short - term, but the cost provides support below [30]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to observe first [32][33]. - LPG: Geopolitical factors may provide short - term support. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [34][35]. - PTA - PX: They fluctuate with cost. PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter, and PTA processing fees are expected to rise with limited space [36][39]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand is weakening, and the inventory is high. The valuation is under pressure before the macro - narrative is realized [40][43]. - Methanol: It is likely to start an upward - trending phase, and attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and MTO profit [44][45]. - PP: The supply and demand are both decreasing. The core concern is the scale of January's device maintenance [46][48]. - PE: Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term disturbances. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weakening [48][50]. - Asphalt: The short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances caused by the US - Venezuela conflict [51][52]. - Urea: The 05 contract has a price increase expectation, and it is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [54][55]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation, glass has high inventory pressure, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely with weak fundamentals [56][57][59]. - Logs: The price has limited fluctuation space, and it is recommended to observe or use a small - interval grid strategy [60][61][62]. - Propylene: The domestic supply is loose, and the price may be affected by cost in the short - term with limited upward space [63]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The approaching Spring Festival and the decrease in average出栏 weight may support the price in the short - term [65][67]. - Oilseeds: They show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply rhythm of imported soybeans affects the price, and the supply of domestic bean粕 and菜粕 has different situations [68][69][70]. - Oils: They may strengthen slightly after the holiday, and palm oil is relatively strong within the sector [71]. - Cotton: The price may correct in the short - term due to factors such as weak downstream demand, but it has an upward space in the long - term [72][73]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to open slightly lower, suppressed by the decline in the external market [74][75]. - Apples: The consumption slowdown causes short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long [76][77]. - Red Dates: They are in a low - level shock in the short - term, and the price will be under pressure in the long - term due to oversupply [78].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 邝志鹏 策略摘要 焦煤方面，年末部分矿区检修致供应阶段性回落，但中长期供应宽松格局未改，矿山库存呈累库态势。 铁水虽小幅反弹但增量有限，市场情绪偏悲观；焦企处于盈亏平衡线，采购以刚需为主，价格缺乏上行 驱动。焦炭方面，日均产量小幅回升，不过安全限产与钢厂提降预期制约焦企生产积极性。铁水回升叠 加钢材消费淡季，钢厂利润偏低，采购谨慎，需求支撑不足。整体来看，"反内卷" 政策博弈仍在，执 行效果待观察；钢厂提降预期升温，后续需关注冬储进度。多空因素交织下，双焦期货价格预计将维持 宽幅震荡格局。 核心观点 市场分析 截至 12 月 31 日，焦煤主力合约收报于1115.0 元 / 吨，较上月环比下跌3.21%；焦炭主力合约收盘报 1693.0 元 / 吨，环比上月下跌2.19%。从月度走势来看，双焦市场整体呈现"月初回调探底，中旬强势反 弹，月末宽幅震荡"的运行特征，全月价格波动幅度较大，主要驱动原因是偏弱的基本面与反内卷政策 的多空博弈。 供应方面：Mysteel统计523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为79.6%，环比减4 ...

Group 1 - The consensus among domestic and foreign institutions is that the Chinese stock market will continue to rise in 2026, driven by factors such as AI innovations, anti-involution policies, and improved corporate earnings [1] - Morgan Stanley and Citibank maintain an overweight rating on the Chinese market, while Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, primarily due to corporate earnings growth of 14% and 12% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - The national pension fund, exceeding 7.7 trillion yuan, will enter a long-term assessment phase to promote long-term investments and improve risk control and asset allocation [1] Group 2 - In January 2026, 71 new public funds are scheduled for issuance, indicating a growing expectation for new capital entering the market [2] - Over 20 A-share listed companies disclosed merger and acquisition announcements, with Zhongwei Company planning to acquire a 64.69% stake in Hangzhou Zhonggui [2] - China surpassed the US in the number of new drug approvals, with 76 innovative drugs approved in 2025, marking a historical high [3] Group 3 - The software and information technology service industry in China saw a revenue increase of 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding 13 trillion yuan, with software product revenue accounting for over 20% of total industry revenue [4] - The Supreme People's Court of China made a favorable ruling regarding the patent of semaglutide, which is significant for the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk [5] - The company anticipates a low single-digit negative impact on global sales growth in 2026 due to the expiration of the semaglutide patent in some markets [5] Group 4 - Tianjin 712 Mobile Communication Co., Ltd. and Chengdu Startronic Microelectronics Co., Ltd. both initiated listing guidance on January 4, 2026 [6][7] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted, with a planned fundraising of 7.5 billion yuan [8] - Former senior executive of Hengrui Medicine, Zhou Yunshu, has joined Xiansheng Pharmaceutical as president [8]

Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December rose to 50.10%, marking the first expansion since April, driven by synchronized recovery in production and demand [2] - New export orders index increased from 45.90% in October to 49% in December, while the new orders index rose to 50.80%, indicating expansion [2] - The production index for December reached 51.70%, with large enterprises leading at 50.80%, while medium and small enterprises showed improvements but remained below the expansion threshold [2] Stock Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations from December 29 to December 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 18.41% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 29.87% over the year [3] - The technology sector benefited from the development of domestic models, while the "anti-involution" policy boosted cyclical stocks, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [3][4] - The overall performance of A-share indices in 2025 was positive, with significant gains in the ChiNext Index (49.57%) and the STAR Market Index (46.30%) [3] Industry Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals and communication sectors saw substantial annual gains of 94.73% and 84.75%, respectively, while the food and beverage sector faced declines [4] - The aerospace equipment II and communication equipment sectors led the secondary industry gains with increases of 146.03% and 130.60% [4] - The communication network equipment and aerospace equipment III sectors recorded the highest gains among tertiary industries, with increases of 176.57% and 146.03% [4] Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the report suggests a favorable policy environment for industrial upgrades, supporting a "slow bull" market [5] - The report highlights potential in insurance, securities, and agriculture-related sectors, as well as opportunities in aerospace aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of efficiency optimization and product innovation in the home appliance industry, recommending focus on leading companies in white goods and emerging technologies [11] Home Appliance Industry Insights - The home appliance sector saw a 0.7% increase, with components leading the gains, while the overall market remains competitive [7] - The current PE ratio for the home appliance industry is 15.33, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the broader market, suggesting investment potential [8] - January 2026 production for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed mixed results, with total production increasing by 6% year-on-year [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side is operating at a high level, and the demand side shows weakening trends. The overall supply - demand situation is weak. The future focus is on changes in liquid chlorine prices, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3]. - The PVC market was weak in the early part of the month, rebounded due to macro - sentiment, and then the macro - sentiment faded, with the overall supply - demand situation remaining weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policies [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis Strategy Analysis - **Caustic Soda**: The basis of caustic soda maintains a C - structure. The spot price first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The inventory is at a high level, and the basis is expected to continue to weaken. A reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. - **PVC**: The basis of PVC also shows a C - structure. After the price hit a new low, the supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the basis strengthened slightly. However, it is expected to weaken again in the future, and a reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price & Spread - In December, the spot price of caustic soda first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The high - level operation of production led to an oversupply situation and inventory accumulation. The demand from alumina is relatively stable, but the procurement price has been adjusted downward. Non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January [13]. 3.3 PVC Price & Spread - In December, the PVC price first fell and then rose. The high inventory led to a continuous decline in price, and the low price improved the supply - demand situation marginally. Macro - sentiment boosted the long - term demand expectation, but the overall supply - demand situation remained weak after the macro - sentiment faded [35]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has been significantly reduced and is at a low level compared to the same period. The profit of PVC upstream raw materials is extremely compressed. The price of ethylene is expected to remain weak in January [52]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Supply - In December, new caustic soda production capacity was put into operation, and the overall supply remained at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises in January, and the supply is expected to remain high due to the good market conditions of liquid chlorine [70]. 3.6 Liquid Chlorine Price and Its Downstream Products - In December, the price of liquid chlorine increased. The downstream demand supported the price, but in January, the terminal demand of some downstream products entered the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [82]. 3.7 PVC Supply - The overall PVC output remained high in December. All new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is still abundant. There is no new domestic production capacity in 2026, and the overseas supply contraction in December 2025 provided a small support to the market sentiment [98]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The demand from alumina is expected to weaken in the long - term. The non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January, and the demand of various industries is expected to decline seasonally [110]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Import and Export - The main import sources of domestic liquid caustic soda in November were Singapore, Norway, and Germany, and the main export destinations were Indonesia, Australia, and Canada. The export orders remain normal [132]. 3.10 PVC Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PVC is weakening. The demand for pipes and profiles is affected by the sluggish real - estate market, while the film industry performs relatively well. The downstream demand is expected to decline further in January [145]. 3.11 PVC Import and Export - The BIS certification and anti - dumping duties of PVC in India have been cancelled, and the export expectation for 2026 is improving. The current PVC export maintains its resilience through price - for - volume strategy [156]. 3.12 Caustic Soda and PVC Inventory Data - The inventory of caustic soda increased in December due to factors such as production increase and weakening downstream demand. The PVC social inventory continued to increase, and the high - level futures warehouse receipts continued to suppress the PVC futures price [160].

Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices showed mixed performance during the New Year holiday, with the US indices collectively declining: Nasdaq down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 1.4%, and S&P 500 down 1.1% [2][7] - Long-term government bond yields in major developed countries mostly rebounded, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [9][12] - Oil prices continued to weaken, with WTI and Brent crude down 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while gold prices quickly retreated by 3.7% after reaching a historical high [12][13] Overseas Fundamentals & Data - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division of opinions among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some supporting a pause in rate cuts [15][19] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000 [17][18] - The US military conducted a large-scale airstrike in Venezuela, marking an escalation in military pressure on President Maduro's regime [20][19] - President Trump announced a delay in tariff increases on imported furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027 [25][26] Domestic Events & Data - The intensity of domestic travel during the New Year holiday increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% in cross-regional daily passenger flow [30][37] - Domestic tourism, particularly "ice and snow tourism" and "winter escape tourism," saw a notable rise, while cross-border travel experienced a decline [43][28] - The average ticket price for economy class flights during the New Year holiday was 597 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [50] - The film market showed steady recovery, with average daily box office revenue increasing by 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [53]

Core Viewpoint - Experts generally predict that consumer prices in 2026 will not experience significant inflation, instead showing a trend of "low and moderate recovery" with CPI expected to rise around 0.8% year-on-year, with a possibility of reaching 2.0% in a reasonable range [1] Group 1: CPI and Consumer Behavior - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has expanded, with November CPI rising by 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, driven mainly by an increase in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables which surged by 14.5% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, remaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, with prices for household appliances and clothing increasing [3] Group 2: PPI and Industrial Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking two consecutive months of growth, suggesting a gradual recovery in production material prices [4] - Prices in sectors such as coal mining, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium-ion batteries are stabilizing, with emerging industries showing significant upward price trends, which may eventually affect downstream consumer prices [4] Group 3: Policy Impact on Prices - The "anti-involution" policies implemented this year have played a crucial role in stabilizing prices, with accelerated capacity governance in key industries leading to more regulated market competition and a noticeable reduction in price declines in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment [5] - Continued policy efforts to expand domestic demand and promote consumption are expected to further support price recovery, mitigating risks of deflation or uncontrolled inflation [5]