Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the US federal government shutdown during the National Day holiday, international crude oil futures prices declined under pressure. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from a pre - holiday high of $66.42/barrel to a low of $60.40/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.06%. The Brent crude oil futures price fell from a pre - holiday high of $70.76/barrel to a low of $64/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.55%. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract is expected to face a risk of a gap - down opening after the holiday. With the support of geopolitical premium weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5]. Summary by Directory 1 Market Review 1.1 Spot prices rose slightly and basis discounts widened slightly - As of the week ending September 30, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area was $64.63/barrel, equivalent to RMB 459.2/barrel, a week - on - week increase of $4.7/barrel. The domestic crude oil futures main contract 2511 closed at RMB 479.7/barrel, a week - on - week increase of RMB 6.6/barrel. The basis was RMB 20.5/barrel [9]. 1.2 Systematic risks occurred and international crude oil futures declined - Affected by the US federal government shutdown, during the National Day holiday, international crude oil futures prices declined under pressure. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from a pre - holiday high of $66.42/barrel to a low of $60.40/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.06%. The Brent crude oil futures price fell from a pre - holiday high of $70.76/barrel to a low of $64/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.55%. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract dropped from a rebound high of RMB 499.2/barrel to below RMB 480/barrel, a cumulative decline of 3.90%. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may face a risk of a gap - down opening after the holiday [5][12][13]. 2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus Escalated and the Production Increase Rhythm Accelerated 2.1 OPEC+ accelerated capacity release and the expectation of supply surplus increased - In August 2025, OPEC+ member countries decided to increase production. From April to August 2025, OPEC+ shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 191.9 barrels/day. In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 2794.8 barrels/day, a significant month - on - month increase of 47.8 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 129.6 barrels/day [20][21][22]. 2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity remained at a high level - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 57. As of the week ending September 26, 2025, the US crude oil daily production was 1350.5 barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 30.5 barrels/day [36]. 2.3 The peak season of crude oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere was coming to an end - Entering October, the peak season of gasoline consumption in the US ended, and the demand factor weakened. Different energy institutions had different forecasts for the crude oil market. EIA and IEA were pessimistic about the future oil price, while OPEC was relatively optimistic [41][42][43]. 2.4 US crude oil inventories increased slightly and refinery operating rates decreased slightly - As of the week ending September 26, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 416.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.792 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 91.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points [44]. 2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The crude oil processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The crude oil import volume was 49.492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.288 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.392 million tons [48]. 3 The Middle East Situation Showed Signs of Easing but Risks Still Existed - During the National Day holiday, eight foreign ministers called for an end to the Gaza war, but Israel said it was a change in the combat situation rather than a cease - fire. The easing of the Middle East situation weakened the support for the crude oil market, and the "war premium" subsided [57][58][59]. 4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Changed Differently Week - on - Week - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 9,903 contracts [62][64]. 5 Conclusion - Affected by the US federal government shutdown and OPEC+ production increase, international crude oil futures prices declined. With the support of geopolitical premium weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on the first trading day after the holiday [70].

Core Insights - The strong performance of oil soft power this week is attributed to multiple factors, particularly the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine situation, which significantly influences oil soft power operations [1][2] - Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have escalated, impacting approximately 1.2 million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity, which is 17% of its total domestic refining capacity [1] - Russia's refining output has decreased to 4.94 million barrels per day in September, down by 150,000 barrels from August, indicating a continued decline in operational rates [1][2] Group 1: Russia-Ukraine Conflict Impact - The conflict has evolved from military confrontation to a multi-dimensional soft power struggle, affecting energy infrastructure, financial systems, and shipping insurance rules [2][3] - Ukraine's attacks on Russian refining facilities and oil pump stations aim to weaken Russia's energy influence, a key soft power asset [3] - The U.S. has pressured EU countries to halt all energy purchases from Russia, which has led to a significant drop in market expectations regarding peace agreements [3] Group 2: Domestic Fuel Shortages in Russia - Domestic fuel shortages in Russia have prompted the government to extend gasoline and diesel export bans until the end of 2025, reflecting a shift from external expansion to internal stabilization [2][3] - Despite stable crude oil exports, the frequency of attacks on refineries and ports has led to a decline in refined product shipments [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - The interplay of geopolitical factors and market dynamics is evident, with the U.S. crude oil market showing signs of inventory depletion, providing some support for oil prices [2] - The current oil market is characterized by a conflict between geopolitical premiums and concerns over supply surplus, which will determine future oil price directions [2][3] Group 4: Soft Power Dynamics and Models - The soft power model indicates a systemic reorganization of multiple soft power elements, with Russia's refining capacity damage leading to a shift from resource dependence to supply chain resilience [2][3] - The soft power pricing model suggests that the decline in Russian soft power points is approximately 12.7% due to refining damage, with a strong correlation between the frequency of Ukrainian attacks and oil volatility [4] - The market's fear premium related to asymmetric attacks has reached $4.20 per barrel, indicating heightened concerns over energy security [4] Group 5: Future Soft Power Evolution - A critical threshold is identified: if Russian refining losses exceed 25%, it may trigger a global restructuring of the distillate oil supply chain [4] - Monitoring the effectiveness of secondary sanctions in the EU's energy policies will be crucial for understanding soft power transmission [4] - The potential normalization of AI-driven precision attacks could redefine energy facility protection as a new soft power metric [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in crude oil prices is driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, and export restrictions from Venezuela [1][2][3] Geopolitical Factors - The Russia-Ukraine situation remains a significant concern, with increased attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy facilities, affecting approximately 1.2 million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity, which is 17% of its total refining capacity [1] - The U.S. has pressured EU countries to halt all energy purchases from Russia, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding a peace agreement in Ukraine [1] - Russia is facing domestic fuel shortages, leading to an extension of export bans on gasoline and diesel until the end of 2025, which is expected to further reduce fuel exports [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current support for oil prices stems from supply concerns due to geopolitical conflicts and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, indicating a temporary balance in supply and demand [3] - Analysts note that while geopolitical factors provide short-term support, the fundamental market dynamics are shifting towards a more relaxed supply situation post-summer demand peak [3][4] Future Price Trends - The oil market is assessing the real impact of Russian exports and the potential tightening of sanctions by the U.S. and Europe, as well as OPEC+ production levels [4] - The expectation is for oil prices to experience high volatility, oscillating between support and pressure, with geopolitical risks potentially limiting downward movements [4][5] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the sustainability of geopolitical risks and manage their positions carefully, especially during holiday periods when risks may increase [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the overall fundamentals are improving marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - Regarding urea, it is currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers. It is suggested to pay attention to long positions on dips [8] - For rubber, maintain a medium - term bullish view. Temporarily wait and look for opportunities after the holiday. Those holding long positions during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [15] - For styrene, the price may stop falling as the seasonal peak season drives downstream operations and port inventories decline [19] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward as the long - term contradiction shifts and the seasonal peak season approaches [21] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and there is no prominent contradiction [24] - For PX, the inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to short on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [33] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Market Information - INE main crude oil futures rose 8.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.72%, to 490.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 37.00 yuan/ton, or 1.30%, to 2887.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 53.00 yuan/ton, or 1.56%, to 3450.00 yuan/ton [1] - US EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, including a 0.61 - million - barrel decrease in commercial crude oil inventories to 414.75 million barrels [1] Strategy Viewpoint - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Methanol Market Information - The price in Taicang dropped 3 yuan/ton, while Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained flat. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 5 yuan/ton to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 4 to - 32, showing a low - level oscillation [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply - side production declined, and enterprise profits decreased. The domestic supply is expected to increase marginally. The demand - side port olefin plants restarted and the load increased. The overall demand improved marginally. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] Urea Market Information - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a slight decline in some areas. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 1 yuan/ton to 1674 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73 [7] - The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 53 [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The futures price is at the lower edge of the weekly - level trend line. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is average. The market sentiment is weak, and enterprise inventories are rising. It is currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers. It is suggested to pay attention to long positions on dips [8] Rubber Market Information - The rubber price was weak. The market expected a 62,000 - ton state reserve release. From September 16, 2025, the RU position structure changed. A super typhoon may have a positive impact, and the EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation laws [10] - As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tire enterprises in Shandong was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tire enterprises was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1235,000 tons [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Temporarily wait and look for opportunities after the holiday. Those holding long positions during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [12] PVC Market Information - The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton [14] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a 3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 49.2%, a 1.7% increase. Factory inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.9 million tons [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Styrene Market Information - The cost - side pure benzene price remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price rose 50 yuan/ton to 6950 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 6958 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [18] - The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, a 1.6% decrease. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.75 million tons to 18.65 million tons. The downstream "Three S" weighted operating rate was 45.44%, a 0.46% increase [18] Strategy Viewpoint - The price may stop falling as the seasonal peak season drives downstream operations and port inventories decline [19] Polyethylene Market Information - The main contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.73%, a 0.74% decrease [20] - The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.20 million tons to 45.83 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.96 million tons to 5.10 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 43%, a 0.08% increase [20] Strategy Viewpoint - The price may fluctuate upward as the long - term contradiction shifts and the seasonal peak season approaches [21] Polypropylene Market Information - The main contract closed at 6898 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6795 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 77.05%, a 2.32% increase [23] - The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, a 0.59% increase [23] Strategy Viewpoint - There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and there is no prominent contradiction [24] PX Market Information - The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 86.3%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a 0.8% decrease [26] - PTA load was 75.9%, a 0.9% decrease. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 5.6 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of July decreased by 24 million tons month - on - month [27] Strategy Viewpoint - The inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] PTA Market Information - The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The East China spot price rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a 0.9% decrease [29] - The downstream load was 91.4%, a 0.2% decrease. The social inventory on September 19 increased by 1.1 million tons [29] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [30] Ethylene Glycol Market Information - The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, a 1.1% decrease [32] - The downstream load was 91.4%, a 0.2% decrease. The port inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 46.7 million tons [32] Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to short on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Urea**: The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. - **Rubber**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. - **PVC**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. - **Styrene**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. - **Polyethylene**: The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Polypropylene**: There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and the short - term situation lacks prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - **PX**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - **PTA**: The supply side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the overall load center is low. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In the fourth quarter, it will turn to inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.00 yuan/barrel, or 1.47%, to 482.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed gains. Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [8]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a small amount, it is believed that this is a stress test on the market. The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price in Taicang rose 18 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia rose 5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton to 2351 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 93. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 28 [2]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side start - up rate has declined, and the demand - side port olefin plants have restarted. The overall demand has improved marginally. However, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while in Henan it fell 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market rose to 1673 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 51 [5]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen with increasing positions. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Affected by Super Typhoon "Hagasa", there will be heavy rainfall in some Southeast Asian regions, which is clearly bullish. The EU has postponed the implementation of its anti - deforestation law, with a marginal reduction in bullish factors. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous period [11][13]. - **Strategy Views**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 77%, a decrease of 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream start - up rate was 49.2%, an increase of 1.7% from the previous period [16]. - **Strategy Views**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. Even though the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, while the futures price rose. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the styrene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side overall start - up rate of three S products fluctuated upwards [20]. - **Strategy Views**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 7142 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 82.28%, an increase of 0.71% from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory and trader inventory both increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Views**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price. The overall inventory is at a high level and is being reduced, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching. The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 6877 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6870 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 23 yuan/ton, a weakening of 27 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased, the trader inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side still has 145 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [27]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The PX load in China was 86.3%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period. Some PX plants had maintenance or load adjustments. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period [30]. - **Strategy Views**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a relatively low overall load center. The PTA new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, and the PX maintenance is also postponed. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. The PXN is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period. Some PTA plants had maintenance, restart, or load reduction. The downstream load was 91.4%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous period [33]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak, putting pressure on raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side domestic and overseas plant loads are at a high level, and the domestic supply is relatively high. The port inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons [36]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less port arrivals. In the medium - term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected high domestic load, combined with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37].

Core Viewpoint - Current oil price fluctuations are a dynamic balance between the resilience of Russian energy infrastructure and the deterrent effect of EU sanctions, with geopolitical premiums countering concerns of oversupply [1][3][4] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil has remained above $66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $62.64 per barrel, reflecting a slight decline of 0.06% and 0.16% respectively [1] - Oil prices have been fluctuating within a $5 range since early August, indicating a stable yet volatile market environment [1][2] - The geopolitical premium is estimated to maintain oil prices in the range of $3 to $5 per barrel due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions [3][4] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have led to short-term supply disruptions but have not significantly undermined Russia's energy infrastructure [2][4] - The EU's upcoming sanctions are expected to target third-party oil entities, particularly affecting Indian companies, as part of efforts to limit Russian oil revenues [1][2] - The resilience of Russian oil exports remains strong, with over 60% of exports maintained despite sanctions, highlighting the effectiveness of alternative payment methods [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The overall supply situation is characterized by excess, with OPEC's increased production pushing global daily output to 105.8 million barrels [5] - Demand remains weak, with China's crude oil imports only increasing by 2.1% and EU consumption declining by 4.6% year-on-year [5] - Future scenarios suggest potential market shifts depending on the intensity of Ukrainian attacks and the response of third countries to EU sanctions [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, due to the mixed fundamentals and high inventory pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [5] - For urea, with relatively low valuation but lack of driving factors, it's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [8] - For rubber, adopt a bullish approach in the medium - term, and a neutral or slightly bullish short - term strategy, buying on dips and exiting quickly [13] - For PVC, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, it's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [14] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it's recommended to go long on the spread between US and South Korea's pure benzene at low prices [18] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long run [21] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the current situation is supply - demand weak [24] - For p - xylene, due to high load and lack of driving factors, it's recommended to wait and see [28] - For PTA, considering the supply and demand situation and valuation, it's suggested to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, with a weak outlook and relatively high valuation, it's recommended to short on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of the weak expectation not materializing [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.92, or 1.45%, to $62.72; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.86, or 1.27%, to $66.66; INE main crude oil futures fell 4.20 yuan, or 0.86%, to 485.8 yuan. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.39 million barrels to 213.76 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels [1] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, as the fundamentals support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - opens, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang price dropped 1 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia dropped 20 yuan/ton, southern Shandong rose 10 yuan/ton, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 13 yuan/ton to 2348 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 8 to - 28 [4] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Supply - side production declined, while demand - side port olefin plants restarted. Port inventory continued to rise but at a slower pace, and was at a historical high, while the inland was in a tight balance. It's recommended to wait and see due to mixed fundamentals and high inventory pressure [5] Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price dropped 20 yuan, Henan dropped 20 yuan, the domestic market was generally weak. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 1 yuan/ton to 1660 yuan/ton, the basis was - 50, and the 1 - 5 spread rose 8 to - 53 [7] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The futures price fell with increasing positions. The domestic supply recovered, demand was weak, and enterprise inventory rose again. With relatively low valuation but lack of driving factors, it's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [8] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber spot prices were supported, and futures were oversold. Thailand's rainfall forecast for the next 7 days was not significant, and supply - side positive factors were limited. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week and down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [10][12] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: In the medium - term, adopt a bullish approach; in the short - term, the market has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish strategy, buying on dips and exiting quickly [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract dropped 12 yuan to 4938 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, the basis was - 158 (+12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%; downstream demand - side overall operating rate was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (- 0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [14] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, enterprise comprehensive profit declined, production was at a historical high, and short - term new plants were to be commissioned. Domestic demand improved, but export expectations weakened. With a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, it's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price dropped, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The overall operating rate of the "three S" on the demand side increased [17] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: In the long term, the BZN spread is expected to repair. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, styrene prices may rebound. It's recommended to go long on the spread between US and South Korea's pure benzene at low prices [18] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price dropped, the spot price also declined, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate increased, inventory at production enterprises and traders increased, and the downstream average operating rate rose [20] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The market is waiting for favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost - side support remains. With limited downward valuation space for PE, but high inventory pressure, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long run [21] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price dropped, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged, production enterprise inventory decreased, trader inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate rose [23] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With remaining planned production capacity on the supply side and high inventory pressure, and the downstream operating rate rebounding seasonally from a low level, it's a supply - demand weak situation with no prominent short - term contradictions [24] P - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract dropped 2 yuan to 6592 yuan, PX CFR dropped 8 dollars to 808 dollars, and the basis was 30 yuan (- 66). The PX load in China was 86.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the Asian load was 78.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. PTA load was 75.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 million tons [26][27] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With high PX load, many unexpected PTA maintenance in the short - term, and expected delay in new PTA plant commissioning, the PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. With lack of driving factors and PXN under pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [28] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract dropped 18 yuan to 4586 yuan, the East China spot price dropped 45 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was - 84 (- 2) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 42 (+2) yuan. PTA load was 75.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The downstream load was 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. As of September 12, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 million tons [29] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume remains high, and the inventory destocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak. With the PXN under pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract dropped 17 yuan to 4240 yuan, the East China spot price dropped 7 yuan to 4344 yuan, the basis was 93 (+1) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 54 (+6) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The downstream load was 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Port inventory was 46.7 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons [31] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With high domestic and overseas plant loads and high domestic supply, the port inventory is expected to be low in the short - term. In the medium - term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic load, and new plant commissioning, inventory will accumulate in the fourth quarter. With relatively high valuation and a weak outlook, it's recommended to short on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of the weak expectation not materializing [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil as geopolitical premiums have dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal, and the current oil price is relatively undervalued with good fundamentals. However, it's not advisable to chase the price at present, and if geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. - For methanol, the fundamentals are mixed with high inventory suppressing the price. It's recommended to wait and see as the price is greatly affected by overall commodity sentiment [6]. - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 9.30 yuan/barrel, a 1.87% decline, at 487.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.39%) to 2796.00 yuan/ton and low - sulfur fuel oil down 36.00 yuan/ton (1.05%) to 3392.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that overall refined oil inventories decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 45.39 million barrels, a 4.10% decline [1][2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. If geopolitical premiums reappear, the oil price will have more upside potential [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang rose 6 yuan/ton, while that in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 18 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108. The 1 - 5 spread rose 16 to - 20 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side start - up rate declined, and the demand - side improved marginally. The inventory in ports continued to rise, but the inventory pressure in the inland area was relatively small. It's recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan fell 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market dropped 9 yuan/ton to 1661 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31. The 1 - 5 spread fell 6 to - 61 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased again. Although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of driving factors. It's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices declined with a large drop after breaking through technical support. The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is not significant, reducing supply - side bullish factors. The long - short views on natural rubber are divided. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, down 2.2 million tons (1.8%) from the previous period [11][12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it's recommended to wait and see [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 27 yuan to 4950 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 170 (-27) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, down 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.2%, up 1.7% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (-0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [17]. Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5903 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The active contract closing price was 6992 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The basis was 108 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.4%, down 1.60%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 million tons to 15.90 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 45.44%, up 0.46% [18][19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term BZN is expected to recover, and it's recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The basis was 21 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.28%, up 0.71%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 49.03 million tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 6.06 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42.92%, up 0.75% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 39 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 million tons to 55.06 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 million tons to 18.83 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.29 million tons to 6.18 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.45%, up 0.59% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 90 yuan to 6594 yuan. PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 816 dollars. The basis was 96 yuan (+4), and the 11 - 1 spread was 0 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 86.3%, down 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, down 0.8% from the previous period. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 0.6 million tons year - on - year [28][29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and there is a lack of driving factors with PXN under pressure. It's recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 62 yuan to 4604 yuan. The East China spot price fell 75 yuan to 4555 yuan. The basis was - 82 yuan (-5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (-6). The PTA load was 75.9%, down 0.9% from the previous period [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has unexpected maintenance, and the demand is affected by the terminal. It's recommended to wait and see [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 4257 yuan. The East China spot price fell 11 yuan to 4351 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (+2). The supply - side operating rate was 73.8%, down 1.1% from the previous period. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.2% from the previous period. The port inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 46.5 million tons [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to short on rallies with caution [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain a long - position view on crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1] - For methanol, due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals are mixed [4] - Regarding urea, although the valuation is relatively low, there is a lack of short - term drivers, so it is advisable to wait and see or consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but due to short - term technical breakdown, it is recommended to wait and see [12] - For PVC, given the strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements [15] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] - For PX, due to high load and expected inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [29] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and see [32] - For ethylene glycol, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 8.00 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.60%, at 491.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 14.37 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 9.72 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.12 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.00 million barrels to 49.50 million barrels [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang dropped 32 yuan, and in Inner Mongolia, it dropped 15 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 30 yuan/ton to 2346 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 18 to - 40, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to high inventory and the influence of overall commodity sentiment [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan dropped slightly by 10 yuan, and the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 11 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 2 to - 55, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long positions at low prices as the valuation is low but there is a lack of short - term drivers [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices dropped significantly with a technical breakdown, possibly due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week but down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [10][11] - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term due to technical breakdown [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped 50 yuan to 4923 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), with a basis of - 153 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, up 2.8% month - on - month [14] - **Strategy**: Consider short positions on rallies, while being cautious of short - term upward movements due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation [15] Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5960 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 7150 yuan/ton, and the active contract's closing price dropped 76 yuan/ton to 7062 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 88 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 133.12 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75%, down 4.70%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.75 tons to 15.90 tons [17][18] - **Strategy**: The BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 57 yuan/ton to 7188 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 7225 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of 37 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 79.5%, down 0.90% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 tons to 49.03 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 0.30 tons to 6.06 tons [21] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract dropped 56 yuan/ton to 6926 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6875 yuan/ton, with a strengthening basis of - 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.43%, up 0.47% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.45 tons to 55.06 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1.43 tons to 18.83 tons, while the port inventory increased by 0.29 tons to 6.18 tons [24] - **Strategy**: With high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [25] PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract dropped 88 yuan to 6684 yuan. The PX CFR dropped 9 dollars to 827 dollars, with a basis of 92 yuan (up 21 yuan). The 11 - 1 spread was 18 yuan (down 14 yuan). The PX load in China was 87.8%, up 4.1% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 79%, up 2.5% month - on - month [27] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as there is a lack of short - term drivers and the PXN has limited upward momentum [29] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped 46 yuan to 4666 yuan, while the East China spot price increased 10 yuan to 4630 yuan, with a basis of - 77 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan (down 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76.8%, remaining unchanged month - on - month [31] - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the de - stocking pattern continues but the processing fee is suppressed [32] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped 29 yuan to 4268 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 11 yuan to 4362 yuan, with a basis of 83 yuan (up 2 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (down 1 yuan). The overall load of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The port inventory increased by 0.6 tons to 46.5 tons [34] - **Strategy**: Go short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, while being cautious of the risk that the weak expectation may not materialize [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and the 1 - 5 positive spread [4] - For urea, with weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6] - For rubber, adopt a long - term bullish view, and stay on the sidelines in the short term as the short - term trend follows that of industrial products [11] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - term upward movements [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the BZN spread to repair in the long term. When the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to fluctuate upward in the long term, and the cost provides support [18] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the price is affected by a large number of warehouse receipts, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction [19] - For PX, with high operating loads and expected inventory accumulation, there is currently no strong driving force, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [22] - For PTA, the pattern of inventory reduction continues, but the processing fee is suppressed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [23] - For ethylene glycol, expect inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Given the relatively high valuation, it is recommended to short at high prices, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 5.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.18% increase, at 499.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 32.00 yuan/ton (1.14%) to 2831.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 63.00 yuan/ton (1.86%) to 3459.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: The US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.29 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels (a 2.19% decrease), the SPR increased by 0.50 million barrels to 405.73 million barrels (a 0.12% increase), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.35 million barrels to 217.65 million barrels (a 1.07% decrease), diesel inventories increased by 4.05 million barrels to 124.68 million barrels (a 3.35% increase), fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.41 million barrels to 20.80 million barrels (a 1.93% decrease), and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.63 million barrels to 43.90 million barrels (a 1.46% increase) [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2376 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Enterprise profits are good, overseas operating rates are high, and arrivals are increasing, resulting in sufficient supply. The profit of port MTO is relatively good year - on - year, traditional demand is weak but there are expectations of a peak season, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Port inventories have reached a new high under high supply, while inland enterprise inventories are lower year - on - year [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 1681 yuan/ton, the spot price remained stable, and the basis was - 41 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventories are slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. It is the off - season for domestic agricultural demand, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded but is still in a seasonal decline. Overall, demand is weak, and export support is limited [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The forecasted rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is expected to decrease marginally, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls are optimistic about rubber due to seasonal expectations, limited rubber production in Southeast Asia (especially Thailand) due to weather and rubber forest conditions, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the seasonal off - season for demand, and the possibility that supply benefits may be lower than expected [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.87%, up 6.17 percentage points from the previous week and 5.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.30%, up 5.23 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The export expectation has declined after the previous rush of export orders to Europe. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 125.8 tons, a 0.7 - ton (0.57%) decrease; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease; and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.5 tons, a 0.7% decrease. As of September 14, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.8 (- 0.62) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 14950 (- 150) yuan, STR20 at 1860 (- 10) dollars, and STR20 mixed at 1855 (- 10) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11500 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 13 yuan to 4973 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 183 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (- 2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2550 yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade blue charcoal was 680 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 850 (0) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 820 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamentals**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a 2.8% increase; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based production was 79.4%, a 2.7% increase; and the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 81.3%, a 3.2% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 47.5%, a 4% increase. Factory inventory was 31 tons (- 0.6), and social inventory was 93.4 tons (+ 1.6). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, few maintenance activities, and high production. Multiple new plants are expected to be put into operation in the short term. Although domestic downstream operating rates have improved, the export expectation has weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices rose, while futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential [15] - **Cost and Supply**: The operating rate of pure benzene is moderately volatile, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene production has been increasing. Styrene port inventories have been significantly reduced [15][16] - **Demand**: As the seasonal peak season approaches, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been declining [16] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5970 yuan/ton (no change), the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton (a 75 - yuan increase), the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7138 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan decrease), the basis was 62 yuan/ton (a 95 - yuan increase), the BZN spread was 136.12 yuan/ton (a 5.62 - yuan increase), the profit of non - integrated styrene production was - 405.3 yuan/ton (a 30 - yuan decrease), the 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton (a 19 - yuan decrease), the upstream operating rate was 75% (a 4.70% decrease), the port inventory in Jiangsu was 17.65 tons (a 2.00 - ton decrease), the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.73% (a 1.11% decrease), the operating rate of PS was 61.00% (a 1.10% increase), the operating rate of EPS was 52.52% (a 5.82% decrease), and the operating rate of ABS was 69.00% (a 1.80% decrease) [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history is high, suppressing the futures price. There are only 40 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, providing support for the price. As the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the raw material inventory for agricultural films has started to build up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low [19] - **Fundamentals**: In a context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6772 yuan, the PX CFR price rose 2 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 71 yuan (+ 5) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 32 yuan (- 10) [21] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate in China was 87.8%, a 4.1% increase; the operating rate in Asia was 79%, a 2.5% increase. CNOOC Huizhou increased its production, Fuhua Group restarted, and an overseas 19 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted [21] - **Imports and Inventories**: In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 tons, a 0.6 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of July was 389.9 tons, a 24 - ton decrease from the previous month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 103 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, while the downstream PTA has experienced many unexpected maintenance activities in the short term, with a relatively low overall operating rate. The new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, leading to continuous inventory accumulation of PX, and there is currently no strong driving force for the PXN to rise [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4712 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4620 yuan, the basis was - 77 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan (+ 10) [23] - **Operating Rates**: The PTA operating rate was 76.8%, a 4.6% increase. Dushan Energy and Hengli Huizhou restarted. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [23] - **Inventories**: On September 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207 tons, a 5 - ton decrease [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA remained unchanged at 131 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 291 yuan. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee is continuously suppressed. The inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers on the demand side are low, and the operating rate is expected to remain high, but the terminal recovery speed is slow [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 25 yuan to 4297 yuan, the East China spot price fell 12 yuan to 4373 yuan, the basis was 81 yuan (- 10), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan (- 11) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, a 1.2% increase. The operating rate of syngas - based production was 76.7%, a 3.1% increase, and the operating rate of ethylene - based production remained unchanged. Some syngas - based plants had production stoppages and restarts, and overseas plants also had some changes in their operating status. The import arrival forecast was 9.4 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on September 16 was 0.67 tons [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [24] - **Inventories and Valuation**: The port inventory was 46.5 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 613 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 784 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 812 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder increased to 570 yuan. Currently, the operating rates of domestic and overseas plants are high, and the domestic supply is large. Although the port arrival volume is expected to be low in the short term, the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term due to concentrated imports, high domestic operating rates, and the commissioning of new plants. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year [24]