早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格上涨 49 元至 5876 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5765 元/吨（环比+75），山东地区现货价格 5740 元/吨（环比+170）。持仓方面， 多头减少 520 手 ...

宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, after a significant previous correction, the butadiene rubber futures are approaching the low end of the fundamental static valuation. With tight butadiene spot and port destocking, increased market speculation drives the futures price to rebound [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract) was 11,915 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 128,058 lots; open interest was 93,726 lots, up 2,724 lots; turnover was 7.5067 billion yuan, up 1.39503 billion yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 315 yuan, down 330 yuan; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 was - 100 yuan, up 5 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China increased to varying degrees; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) both rose by 100 yuan; the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 250 yuan and 200 yuan respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 74.599%; the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 12,388 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan; the butadiene rubber profit was - 687 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan [1]. Industry News - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous period. Some sample production enterprises' inventory increased, while sample trading enterprises' inventory decreased [2]. - On January 21, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period due to limited imports and high - level operation of downstream industries [2][3].

2026年01月22日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.86%，收于 24155 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-295 元/吨， LME 价格 3135 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 交易策略：消费端淡季特征显著，库存延续累积，供需矛盾叠加市场情绪趋于谨慎，铝价短期维持震荡调整。 风险提示：海外供应扰动、投机资金获利了结。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.04%，收于 2672 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-35 元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能维持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 交易策略：现货价格企稳，但远期供应过剩压力较大，叠加到期仓单集中注销，氧化铝盘面价格维持偏弱走 势。 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减产，反内卷政策刺激。 锌 市场表现：1 月 21 日日盘，锌、铅主力合约收于 24350 元/吨,17115 元/吨,较前一交易日收盘价分别-+60,-+110 元/克。国内 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. - For methanol, considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. - For urea, with the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. - For rubber, with its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 2.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.52%, at 440.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.79%, to 2542.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 12.00 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, to 3090.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.09 million barrels to 7.07 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.50 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.69 million barrels to 8.77 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.82 million barrels to 18.33 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 9 yuan/ton, in Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10.00 yuan/ton to 2209 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 12 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: Considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 29 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1779 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy View**: With the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded in a volatile manner. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 125.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 tons [7][8]. - **Strategy View**: With its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 64 yuan to 4743 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (+ 4) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, flat month - on - month. Factory inventory was 31.1 tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 tons (+ 3) [12]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5675 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 7203 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.17 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons, and trader inventory remained unchanged [17]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 26 yuan to 7206 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 888 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 89.4%, down 1.5% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 80.6%, down 0.6% month - on - month. From mid - to early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 10 yuan to 5154 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5085 yuan. The PTA load was 76.9%, down 1.3% month - on - month. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4 tons [26]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 15 yuan to 3689 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 31 yuan to 3570 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: The current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30].

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy focuses on selecting commodities with strong fundamentals and technical buy signals for holding [4] Group 1: Trading Strategy - The trading approach is relatively simple, relying on fundamental support and technical buy signals [4] - In strong market trends, the strategy leans towards subjective trading to increase positions, while in low volatility markets, it relies more on technical analysis for objective trading [5][22] - A simple trading system is often more effective than a complex one due to reduced noise and uncertainty [5][23] Group 2: Performance and Goals - The target annual return is 26%, which can lead to a doubling of capital in three years and a tenfold increase in ten years through compounding [7][27] - The current performance in the futures market shows strong results, particularly in metal commodities like gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and lithium [11][33] Group 3: Risk Management - Diversification across multiple commodities is considered one of the best methods for risk control [8][29] - In program trading, a strategy of closing positions and reversing is used to set stop-loss points, while in subjective trading, stop-loss and take-profit points are based on price trends and key support/resistance levels [9][30] - The approach to risk management remains consistent, even during extreme market conditions, relying on a long-validated trading system [31] Group 4: Market Insights - The current futures market is characterized by volatility and uncertainty, with a strong performance in metal commodities influenced by global economic recovery and inflation expectations [12][33] - The selection of trading commodities is based on historical performance and future expectations [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously Bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously Bullish [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish [1][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish [1][12][13] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously Bearish [1][15][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously Bearish [1][15][16] Core Views - **Rebar**: Demand has increased month-on-month, while production and inventory remain largely unchanged. Profit margins are decent, but production growth is limited due to the off-season. Iron ore prices are high, curbing steel mills' restocking enthusiasm. Overall, it will trade in a range, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in inventory, but the absolute level is high and the de-stocking speed is slow. Spot prices are weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will trade in a range in the medium term, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations after a steel mill accident [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Both arrivals and shipments of foreign ore have decreased this period. After the price decline, some steel enterprises are willing to purchase, driving the ore price up temporarily [1][6][7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was blocked. After the recent rise in raw coal prices, coke enterprises' losses have deepened, but short-term production enthusiasm remains okay, with a slight decline in supply. Iron production has decreased slightly, and downstream restocking has improved slightly, with purchases mainly based on demand. Short-term focus is on the extent of steel mill production cuts, with a bearish outlook [1][8][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Previously shut-down coal mines have started to resume production, significantly increasing supply. Import volume at ports has returned to the same period's high level. Recent spot transactions have improved, and downstream restocking is active, with good destocking of mine inventories. There are no obvious changes in the fundamentals. Short-term focus is on whether safety inspections will affect coal mines, with a bearish outlook [1][11][12]. - **Silicomanganese**: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has started to decline but remains at a high level. New steel tenders are starting, with tender prices mostly between 5,870 - 5,940 yuan/ton, and a leading steel mill's final price at 5,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month-on-month. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the main production area has increased month-on-month, demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. New steel tenders are starting, with a leading steel mill's final price at 5,760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month-on-month. Attention should be paid to other steel mills' actions. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) have declined, with spot prices also falling in various regions [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Overall, it will maintain a range-bound operation, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations [5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) have declined, and spot prices have also decreased in different regions. The basis fluctuates around par [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: High inventory and low basis suppress the market. It will trade in a range in the medium term, with potential short-term boosts from stricter safety regulations [5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: No specific price data is provided, but it is mentioned that the price decline has led to some steel enterprises' purchase intentions, driving the price up temporarily [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, as the decrease in arrivals and shipments and restocking needs support the price [7]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (1, 5, 9) have declined. Spot prices in some regions have remained stable, while others have decreased [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish, with a focus on the extent of steel mill production cuts [9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (1, 5, 9) have declined. Spot prices in some regions have increased, while others have decreased [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish, with a focus on whether safety inspections will affect coal mines [12][13]. Iron Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have declined, and spot prices have also decreased in various regions. The basis has changed in different directions [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to trade in a range in the short term, with attention to steel tender prices [15][16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have declined, and spot prices have decreased in most regions. The basis has changed in different directions [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to trade in a range in the short term, with attention to steel tender prices and other steel mills' actions [15][16].

Report 1: Steel Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The steel industry is facing a situation of both weak supply and demand. The cost decline may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. It is recommended to exit the long position of the steel - ore ratio at a high level and continue to hold the long position of the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have declined. For example, rebar spot in the East China region dropped from 3290 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while some production costs and profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 11 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coil increased by 6 [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 tons (-0.7%), and the output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons (0.1%). The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons (-0.6%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 (-8.4%), while the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons (3.7%) [1]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The ore price is expected to be weak, but the pre - festival restocking still supports the price. The interval strategy remains unchanged, with the reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Related Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped from 861.1 yuan/ton to 855.6 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decreased, while the national monthly import volume increased. The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons (-8.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 251.0 tons (-7.9%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, 45 - port daily average desilting volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel output all decreased. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons (-0.6%) [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory and 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased, and the number of available days of 64 steel mills' inventory also increased [4]. Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, some coke enterprises resist price cuts and limit production to maintain prices. The market may be loose after the festival, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the reference range of 1600 - 1750 [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot is strong before the Spring Festival due to restocking demand, but the market is expected to be loose after the festival, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the reference range of 1000 - 1150 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices declined, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the coke 05 contract dropped from 1721 to 1674 (-2.8%) [6]. Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and the demand side (pig iron output) also decreased. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons (-0.2%) [6]. Inventory Change - Coke inventory increased slightly overall, with ports and steel mills accumulating inventory and coking plants reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased slightly overall [6]. Report 4: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range of 5300 - 5800 [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: It is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The manganese ore supports the price, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with the reference range of 5600 - 6000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price increased slightly, while the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased. Some spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese also changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some ferrosilicon regions decreased slightly, and the production profit changed. The manganese ore price decreased slightly [7]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the demand also decreased. Ferromanganese supply decreased slightly, and the demand also decreased [7]. Inventory Change - Ferrosilicon inventory decreased slightly, and ferromanganese inventory also decreased slightly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE futures have continued to decline, with the upstream conducting low - price pre - sales and the mid - and downstream replenishing short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but after the decline in the futures market, trading has weakened significantly, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6640, with a daily decline of 0.40%. The trading volume was 442,747, and the position increased by 9,748 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract yesterday was - 110 (compared to - 97 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 24 (unchanged from the day before) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price yesterday was 6,530 yuan/ton (compared to 6,570 the day before); in East China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,720 the day before); in South China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,800 the day before) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market has continued to decline. The upstream has carried out low - price pre - sales, and the mid - and downstream have replenished short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth, and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but trading has weakened significantly after the decline in the futures market, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading suggestions for each sector [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold Market** - Market Performance: On Tuesday, precious metals rose, with London gold breaking through $4,700 per ounce and London silver reaching $95 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: The US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariff - related matters is pending, and a hearing on Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook is scheduled. There were fluctuations in the Japanese bond market, the EU may freeze the US - EU trade agreement approval, and the Polish central bank plans to buy 150 tons of gold. Domestic gold ETFs had a large inflow of 1.3 tons [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the escalation of the tariff war, gold prices are steadily rising. It is recommended to go long. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and Trump's delay in adding tariffs, it is advised to participate with caution [2]. - **Silver Market** - Market Performance: The price of silver increased. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 83.4 tons to 13,263.4 tons, while iShares silver ETF持仓 increased by 151 tons to 16,222.5 tons [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump postponed the tariff increase on silver, and some New York inventory flowed back to London, alleviating the inventory shortage [2]. - Trading Strategy: Due to high domestic speculative sentiment, it is recommended to participate with caution [2]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.58% to 23,950 yuan/ton. The domestic monthly spread was - 415 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $3,142 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly [3]. - Trading Strategy: With mixed macro - sentiment, traditional aluminum demand is weak at high prices. The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the short - term price is expected to remain in high - level oscillation [3]. - **Alumina** - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 2.27% to 2,671 yuan/ton, and the domestic monthly spread was - 54 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, inventory accumulation intensifies the short - selling atmosphere, and the cost support continues to decline. The price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production cuts in February [3]. - **Zinc and Lead** - Market Performance: On January 20, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24,410 yuan/ton and 17,225 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic monthly spreads were - 24,410 yuan/ton and - 17,225 yuan/ton respectively. Overseas 0 - 3 monthly spreads were - 41.66 and - 47.13 dollars/ton respectively. Zinc inventories in seven regions increased by 0.36 million tons, and lead inventories in five regions increased by 0.16 million tons [3][4]. - Fundamentals: For zinc, macro - sentiment pushed the price to a high level, but the fundamentals showed weak supply and demand. Domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season, and downstream demand is weak due to high prices. The supply has increased significantly, and the processing fee has jumped, but the low LME inventory provides support. For lead, domestic lead ingot inventories are accumulating, and the consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has partially dissipated. It is recommended to sell short at high prices in the short term [4]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 1.13%. The position decreased by 10,615 lots to 225,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds decreased by 0.48 billion yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 7 compared to last week, mainly in Sichuan. Social and warehouse inventories increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, and production is expected to decline [4]. - Trading Strategy: With potential supply - side production cuts and demand - side production reduction expectations, the market is expected to oscillate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to go short lightly at high prices [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 160,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99%. The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate increased by $20 to $2,060 per ton, and the SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 1,500 yuan to 152,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was 22,605 tons, a week - on - week increase of 70 tons. SMM expects January supply to be 97,970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. In January, the expected production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The inventory is expected to remain in a tight balance in January, and the total inventory days remained at 28 days [4]. - Trading Strategy: Due to environmental and safety issues in Jiangxi's lithium resources and export rush expectations on the demand side, the price is expected to rise easily and fall hard [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 50,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.39%. The position decreased by 939 lots to 43,632 lots, and the variety's settled funds decreased by 0.57 billion yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: This week, the downstream in the spot market is in a wait - and - see state. The weekly production decreased by more than 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly. The production of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the production of battery cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - refund policy on the 9th may support component exports [4]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event, the market has fully priced in the negative news, and the near - month balance sheet has changed from loose to tight. Attention should be paid to the subsequent feedback of industry associations [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [5]. - Fundamentals: The steel building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.4% to 3.005 million tons. The demand for building materials is relatively weak year - on - year, but the supply has decreased significantly. The demand for steel plates is stable, and the export is high. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and the production increase space is limited [5][6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,090 - 3,150 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [6]. - Fundamentals: The arrival of iron ore increased by 1.17 million tons to 28.98 million tons year - on - week, and the total shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 3.6 million tons to 22.47 million tons. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral, and the port and steel mill inventories are at the lowest level in the same period of history [6]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 775 - 805 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the first round of price increases has been proposed. The supply at the port is high, and the overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1,090 - 1,130 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean** - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price slightly decreased [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term is loose, and the long - term South American supply is expected to be large. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are marginally improving. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom. The domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by the large South American supply expectation, and the near - month contracts depend on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7]. - **Corn** - Market Performance: The corn futures price declined, while the spot price in the corn - producing area continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded half, and the selling pressure is not large. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. The enthusiasm of northeast deep - processing enterprises to build inventories is high, but the policy - based corn auction has cooled down. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - **Edible Oils** - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures price rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is in the weak seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports improved month - on - month. The overall situation is that the near - term is loose, and the long - term is in a weak seasonal production - reduction period [7]. - Trading Strategy: Edible oils are expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium term, attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar** - Market Performance: The SR05 contract closed at 5,188 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis of Nanning spot - SR05 contract was 62 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax was 407 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar price dropped significantly due to pressure from Indian production. The pressure from India will last until February. Domestically, the overall production and sales progress is slow this year, and the spot pressure in the future market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production, and both are under pressure [8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton** - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price oscillated and declined, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, India's clothing export volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to oscillate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend is still valid. China's cotton yarn import volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month [8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices. The price range reference is 14,400 - 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Eggs** - Market Performance: The egg futures price declined, and the egg spot price partially decreased [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of egg - laying hens in production decreased, but the de - capacity slowed down. As the egg price rose, the willingness to ship in the production area increased, the arrival volume in the sales area increased, the purchasing enthusiasm in the trading end decreased, and the inventory increased. The egg price may decline seasonally [8]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price is expected to decline seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Hogs** - Market Performance: The hog futures price declined, and the hog spot price decreased [8]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased at the end of the month, the demand was stable in the short term, the supply pressure increased, and the impact of snowfall ended. The hog price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm changes [8]. - Trading Strategy: Supply and demand have weakened, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE** - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6,530 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis weakened. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices were put into operation before, and some devices reduced load or stopped production. The import window was continuously closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreased month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remained stable [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply and demand were weak, and the geopolitical situation was volatile. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the medium term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. - **PVC** - Market Performance: The V05 contract closed at 4,808 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - Fundamentals: PVC trading was at a low - level stalemate. The upstream ex - factory price decreased and then stabilized. The supply was at a high level, and the demand of downstream factories decreased seasonally. The real - estate market weakened in November, and the social inventory accumulated at a high level [10]. - Trading Strategy: With supply increasing and demand weakening, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage or adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **PTA** - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price was $888 per ton, equivalent to 7,206 yuan/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,015 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: For PX, multiple refineries increased their loads, and the PX load decreased slightly. Overseas, South Korean and Vietnamese devices plan to increase loads, and the import supply will increase. The gasoline cracking profit weakened, and the blending - oil demand was in the off - season. For PTA, the supply was at a high level, and some factories had maintenance in January. The polyester factory's load decreased, the product profit was compressed, and the downstream entered the off - season [10]. - Trading Strategy: PX's strong expectations support the price, but it may face callback pressure in the short term due to terminal demand. The medium - term long - allocation view remains unchanged. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to increase the processing fee in the 05 contract [10]. - **Methanol** - Market Performance: Affected by geopolitical factors, methanol first rose sharply and then oscillated and adjusted. As of January 20, the 05 contract closed at 2,206 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic methanol plant operating load remained above 90%, and the operating load in the northwest region was about 97%. The coal - to - methanol enterprises have few new device maintenance plans, and the overall production is likely to remain