| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | 豆粕 | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比减少，但同比 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 偏高，短期供应暂充足。市场传言海关大豆进口延迟十五天，叠加南美天气干扰仍 | | | | 存，昨日豆粕暂止跌整理，原空单可考虑逐步获利了结。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | 短线调整 | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。昨日菜粕小幅反弹。短期走势暂以 2270 元以上 | | | | 区间行情对待。关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 12 月东南亚逐步进入减产的预期，限制棕榈油调整空间，关注企稳看多机会。关注 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 马棕榈油本月出口数据表现。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存环比略下降，但仍高于五年同期。 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 原木：低位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 期货研究 | 价格指标 项目 2025/12/11 2025/12/10 | 2025/12/9 | 2025/12/8 | 2025/12/5 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2601合约(收盘价) 746 756 | 766. 5 | 769.5 | 765. 5 | -1. 3% | -2.5% | | 2601合约(成交量) 7123 11886 | 3094 | 5206 | 2948 | -40. 1% | 142% | | 2601合约 (持仓量) 14509 13070 | 13846 | 14469 | 15277 | 11.0% | -5% | | 2603合约(收盘价) 769 776.5 | 778.5 | 779 | 778. 5 | -1.0% | —1% | | 盘面 2603合约(成交量) 1581 2599 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 4 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 QE，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。 | | | 长线持有 | 印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割逻辑。市场押注降息持续和供需缺口 | | | 长线持有 连续 | 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。全球经济刺激、流动性维持宽松， | | ★★ | | 长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 宏微共振下，铜续创历史新高，建议前期多单继续持有，逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 | | ★ | | 求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 国内经济工作会议召开，重提反内卷并强调实施更加积极的财政政策。锌 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情》 金投白银网(http://ag.cngold.org)为您提供最新白银期货价格、白银期货合约、白银期货交易以及白银期 货走势，更多白银期货行情敬请关注：白银期货专栏 备注：以上白银的价格仅供参考，请以官方报价为准。如对白银投资有疑问可咨询本站客服。 金投白银网提供今日白银期货价格走势_今天白银期货价格走势（2025年12月12日） 今日白银期货价格查询（2025年12月12日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 昨收价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 14776.00 | 15033.00 | 14486.00 | 14488.00 | ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 集运指数（欧线）：短期情绪偏乐观，中期震荡市 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2512 | 1,653.1 | -0.37% | 241 | 3,031 | -138 | 0.08 | 0.10 | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,689.0 | 2.04% | 18,659 | 31,623 | 241 | 0.59 | 1.14 | | | EC2604 | 1,092.7 | 0.87% | 2,137 | 19,277 | 58 | 0.11 | 0. ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑： ...

| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月11日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉突破上行,主力05大幅增仓;棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业 库存并不高,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持稳,关注春节前需求能 否出现小旺季。郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36万吨， 环比增加175.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly, cotton has broken through and moved upward, while hog prices remain weak. Different varieties have different influencing factors and market outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly due to customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and potential overseas demand growth. Cotton has broken through and moved upward because of strong downstream demand. Hog prices are weak as supply growth exceeds demand growth [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Rapeseed Oil: Strong Rise - Focus: The rapeseed oil led the overall rise in the oil and fat sector. The main 2605 contract rebounded strongly, driven by customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and expected overseas demand growth. - Reasons: Customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports led to some port rejections, boosting bullish sentiment. Technical oversold conditions caused a rebound. Germany's new bill may increase rapeseed oil demand. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased, with the inventory at 40.6 million tons at the end of the 49th week, a 4.47% week - on - week decline. Palm oil and soybean oil also rebounded [2]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has strengthened technically. Look for support levels to go long with a light position. Close short positions in palm oil and conduct short - term trading [2]. (2) Soybean Meal: Near - term Strong, Long - term Weak - Focus: Soybean meal contracts show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The January contract rose due to stronger raw materials, while the 2605 contract remained weak. - Reasons: Abundant domestic imported soybeans. Rumors of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans drove up the price of soybean No. 2 futures and near - term soybean meal contracts. The 2605 contract is under pressure as it corresponds to the peak period of South American soybean imports next year [3]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of soybean meal is technically weak. Continue to hold short positions with a light position [3]. (3) Hogs: Weak Downward - Focus: The main 2603 contract of hogs is moving downward weakly due to abundant supply. - Reasons: High hog inventory, scale pig enterprises' year - end sales push, and concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured hogs lead to sufficient supply. Although terminal consumption such as southern bacon - making and northern sausage - making increases, the increase in consumption is less than the increase in supply [6]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of hogs is weak. Enter short positions for the short - term and set stop - losses [6]. (4) Eggs: Near - term Weak, Long - term Strong - Focus: The main 2603 contract of eggs fluctuates narrowly, and the weak trend remains unchanged. - Reasons: High laying - hen inventory leads to high supply pressure. Although market demand increases near the end of the year, the latest data shows a 0.70% week - on - week decline in old - hen出栏 as of December 4. There are still uncertainties in capacity reduction [7][9]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of eggs is technically weak. Short with a light position [9]. (5) Sugar: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates at a low level due to the supply pressure of new sugar. - Reasons: Seasonal supply pressure of sugar is high as 64 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started crushing. Although end - of - year stocking demand is approaching, it limits the downward space of sugar prices [10]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of sugar is trading sideways at a low level. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading [10]. (6) Cotton: Breaking Upward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of cotton has broken through and moved upward, supported by demand resilience. - Reasons: China's cotton harvesting is almost finished. As of December 4, the national cotton sales rate is 37.3%, a 21.9 - percentage - point year - on - year increase, indicating strong downstream consumption. Improved Sino - US economic and trade relations are beneficial for cotton textile exports. Xinjiang textile enterprises have high operating rates and stable profits, with year - end restocking needs [12]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of cotton has opened up upward space. Go long on dips [12].

想要精准捕捉期货市场的风起云涌，你需要的不只是一个行情显示器，而是一座功能齐全的"专业气象 站"。它能帮你监测全球市场的"气压变化"，解读政策与供需的"风云图"，更能让你听到各地"观察 员"的一手情报。新浪财经APP，正是为期货投资者量身打造的这样一座决策"气象站"。 核心雷达：覆盖全球的精密"监测"网络 在期货市场，信息的全面与速度就是生命线。新浪财经APP构建了覆盖全球市场的实时行情"监测网 络"。 与其他一些侧重于某一单一功能（如极致的图表分析或纯粹的交易速度）的平台相比，新浪财经APP的 优势在于提供了均衡而全面的"监测套餐"。它或许不是某项单一指标最强的，但其数据的广度、工具的 实用性与稳定性，为大多数投资者提供了可靠的基础设施。 资讯风云：快人一步的"预报"与"解读"系统 市场波动往往由信息驱动。新浪财经APP依托强大的媒体基因，打造了立体的资讯"预报与解读"系统。 社区生态：汇聚智慧的民间"观察站" 如果说官方数据和专业分析是"气象卫星云图"，那么来自市场一线的真实声音就是遍布各地的"地面观 察站"。新浪财经APP的期货社区，正是这样一个充满活力的民间智慧集散地。 全景"气象图"：提供国内外主流 ...

2025 年 12 月 11 日 究 国 泰 工业硅：关注工业硅厂挺价情况 多晶硅：平台公司股权细节公布，盘面继续逢 低做多 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 8,250 | -90 | -670 | -1,040 | | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 252,510 | -71,000 | 106,511 | -113,239 | | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 171,757 | -13,514 | -22,169 | -109,746 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 55,915 | 305 | -1,515 | - | | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 116,207 | -42,531 | -66,218 | - | ...