Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed oil, it is recommended to be mainly bullish. The AAFC estimates Canada's rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 20.1 million tons, with a doubled carry - over stock of 2.2 million tons. China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may impact exports. There are supply risks in Indonesia and strong palm oil export data from Malaysia. In the short - term, the domestic vegetable oil supply is ample, but the low mill operation rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in Q3 reduce supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US Department of Agriculture's downward adjustment of US soybean harvest area is bullish, but the good soybean condition restricts prices. Domestically, the high mill operation rate and increasing soybean meal inventory suppress prices, but the uncertainty of Q4 purchases and less near - month rapeseed arrivals support the market. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken long - term supply, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations [11][12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Rapeseed Oil** - Strategy: Participate with a bullish bias [8]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher with the 01 contract closing at 9,890 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - Outlook: AAFC's new production and inventory estimates, China's anti - dumping measures, international palm oil factors, and domestic supply - demand conditions affect the market. The price has a slight pull - back and is now in a narrow - range oscillation [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal** - Strategy: Adopt a bullish mindset and monitor Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations [11]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely with the 01 contract closing at 2,543 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week [12]. - Outlook: USDA's report, good US soybean condition, domestic soybean meal inventory, rapeseed supply, and substitution effect of soybean meal all influence the market. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues and is in a bullish and volatile state [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Position and Price** - Rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 284,285 lots, down 12,211 lots from last week. The top 20 net position changed from net short to net long (+6,463) [17][23]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely with a total position of 421,028 lots, down 27,582 lots from last week. The top 20 net short position decreased (- 8,755) [17][23]. - **Warehouse Receipts** - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts are 3,487 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts are 8,253 lots [29][30]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,010 yuan/ton, up from last week, and the basis is +120 yuan/ton [37]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,550 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week, and the basis is +7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Futures Month - to - Month Spread** - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is +179 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is +74 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio** - The 01 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.889, and the average spot price ratio is 3.81 [53]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals** - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil to soybean oil is 1,432 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil to palm oil is 298 yuan/ton, both with relative oscillations this week [62]. - The 01 contract spread of soybean meal to rapeseed meal is 545 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 460 yuan/ton [68]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Rapeseed** - **Supply - Inventory and Arrival**: As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in mills is 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 are 200,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 150,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Pressing Profit**: As of August 21, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is +883 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Pressing Volume**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume in coastal main mills is 49,000 tons, down 13,000 tons from last week, with an operation rate of 11.99% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Arrival**: In July 2025, China's rapeseed imports are 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [86]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Supply - Inventory and Import**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory is 744,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. In July 2025, rapeseed oil imports are 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% [90]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue is 470.76 billion yuan [94]. - **Demand - Contract Volume**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume is 101,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.39% [98]. - **Rapeseed Meal** - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory is 26,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.39% [102]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, rapeseed meal imports are 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [106]. - **Demand - Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed output is 2.9377 million tons [110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of August 22, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.7%, down 3.03% from last week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - **Market Outlook**: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - **Futures Basis**: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.**: P/E ratio trend [89]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea is still within the range - bound oscillation, but the upward pressure is gradually increasing [1] - In the medium - term, before the Indian Prime Minister's visit to China, investors' risk preference in the urea market remains low, and the market is expected to move within a range. In the long - term, from the perspective of the terminal value of the 01 contract, the fundamental pressure is still high, and it may show a weakening trend as policies become clearer [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - For the urea 01 contract, the closing price was 1,764 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,773 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume was 181,545 lots, a decrease of 275,681 lots; the open interest was 205,717 lots, a decrease of 2,892 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,573 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 643.871 million yuan, a decrease of 991.163 million yuan; the basis in Shandong was - 4, up 2; the basis of Fengxi - disk was - 134, up 12; the basis of Dongguang - disk was - 4, up 12; the spread of UR09 - UR01 was - 27 for Henan Xinlianxin, down 2 [1] Spot Market - The factory prices of some urea producers remained stable, such as Yankuang Xinjiang at 1,460 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing at 1,750 yuan/ton, and Shanxi Fengxi at 1,630 yuan/ton. The price of Jiangsu Linggu increased by 20 yuan to 1,810 yuan/ton. The prices of traders in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan to 1,760 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained at 1,630 yuan/ton [1] Supply - side Indicators - The urea production start - up rate was 82.59%, down 0.65 percentage points; the daily output was 191,200 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [1] 2. Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. Due to weak domestic demand and lack of market confidence, local urea enterprises could not maintain the balance between production and sales. Although some enterprises' inventories decreased due to export orders and maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory was on the rise. Some provinces saw inventory increases while others saw decreases [2] - As export - related information has been successively confirmed, the market's export expectations for urea are gradually materializing. In the context of the futures premium over the spot, the focus is on whether the overall spot trading volume can support the futures premium. [2][3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨，环比增加0.67%；本周样本企业产能 利用率为80.33%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.1725万吨，环比增加1.67%,乙烯法企 业产量13.941万吨，环比减少0.28%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增 加幅度可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.75%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为36.91%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.96%，环比增加.869个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the steel sector, the recovery of future demand may fall short of expectations due to the real - estate market still being in the process of bottom - building, and futures prices are under downward pressure. The short - term prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may stabilize, and the medium - term trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation. For iron ore, although there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron production after the military parade, the room for further increase is limited, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, apparent demand has increased from a decline, factory inventory has increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory has increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total production and inventory of the five major steel varieties have increased, and apparent demand has also risen. With the end of the summer heat, apparent demand should gradually recover, and total inventory is expected to gradually decline [2] - **Technical analysis**: After a sharp decline, rebar and hot - rolled coils have stabilized and rebounded, with a decrease in open interest. Short - term prices may stabilize, and the medium - term will maintain a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for a rebound to short [2] - **Data summary**: Various data such as futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are presented in detail, including changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [2] Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased. The molten iron production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly. After the military parade, there is room for an increase in molten iron production, but the room for further increase is limited. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 contract has stabilized near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band. Short - term prices may rebound to the upper track, but the overall Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Close short positions in the short - term and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Data summary**: Comprehensive data on iron ore, including spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipment, freight, arrivals, inventory, etc., are provided, along with changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4] Industry News - As of August 2025, 20 distressed real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 120 billion yuan. Since 2022, 27 listed real - estate enterprises have been delisted passively, and several others have delisted through privatization [6] - Chengdu has introduced a new housing provident fund policy, with preferential measures for purchasing affordable housing [6] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of coke [6] - The online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company on August 21 ended in failure [6] - As of the week of August 21, rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased from a decline [6] - As of August 21, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the float - glass industry have remained stable, and the daily output has remained at the highest level of the year [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also mentions a macro and industry news item about a heterojunction battery and component project. The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511's closing price is 8,635 yuan/ton, with a change of -40 yuan compared to T - 5. PS2511's closing price is 51,530 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,100 yuan compared to T - 5. There are also details about trading volume, open interest, and spreads for both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures [1]. - **Spot Market**: Industrial silicon spot prices vary by type, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8,450 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed at 49,000 yuan/ton. There are also data on spot premiums and discounts [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits are negative for both Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profits are - 15.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and the total industry inventory is 71.8 million tons. Polysilicon factory inventory is 24.9 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials like silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes are provided, with some showing price changes over different time periods [1]. - **Related Product Prices and Profits in the Polysilicon Industry Chain**: Prices and profits of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and photovoltaic glass are included, with some products showing price changes compared to different time points [1]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: DMC price is 11,000 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 994 yuan/ton. ADC12 price is 20,450 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 230 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News On August 11, the People's Government of Qidong City, Jiangsu Province, released an acceptance notice for the first - phase project of Qidong Hongjun's heterojunction battery and component project. The project, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, is expected to produce 2GW of single - crystal heterojunction 210*105mm (N - type) HJT double - sided double - glass components annually [1][3]. Trend Strength The trend strength for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a neutral outlook on both [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Short-term participation [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][15][16] - **Manganese silicon**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: After continuous decline, there may be a short-term rebound. Rebar has high production enthusiasm but weak demand, and supply-demand may loosen. Hot-rolled coil has a relatively stable fundamentals with a loosening supply-demand trend [1][3][4] - **Iron ore**: The industrial fundamentals are weak, and the ore price fluctuates weakly. The supply is increasing, and it waits for a new downward window [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Spot starts the seventh round of price increase, but may face steel mill games. Supply-demand is balanced, and there may be a short-term rebound [1][9][11] - **Coking coal**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase. There is a downward repair space in the medium term and a short-term rebound possibility [1][13][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Fundamentals are weak, and prices run weakly. Manganese silicon has short-term demand resilience but high inventory. Silicon iron has increasing production, falling demand, and high supply pressure [1][17][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: High furnace and electric furnace profits, high iron water production, weak demand, lower-than-expected production restrictions, supply-demand loosening, possible short-term rebound due to policy [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled coil**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, limited impact of production restrictions, downward price with limited short-term downside, possible short-term rebound [1][4][5] Iron ore - **Price data**: Futures prices for different contracts are provided, along with spot prices, spreads, and freight rates [6] - **Fundamentals**: Increasing iron water production, insufficient environmental protection restrictions, end of steel mill restocking, port inventory accumulation, and a weakening supply-demand situation [7] Coke - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data are given [10] - **Fundamentals**: Spot price increase, improved coke enterprise profits, balanced supply-demand, stable production and inventory, possible short-term rebound [11] Coking coal - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [14] - **Fundamentals**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, high iron water production, stable demand, medium-term downward repair space, short-term rebound possibility [15] Ferroalloys - **Manganese silicon**: Loosening fundamentals, short-term demand resilience, high inventory, increased manganese ore shipments, stable port inventory, possible short-term rebound, medium-term sell-on-rally strategy [19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Increasing production, falling demand, high supply pressure, possible short-term rebound after over - decline, short - selling participation [19][20]

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the weak oscillatory trend. The industry contradictions are accumulating, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost has increased, limiting the downward space. The performance of demand should be closely monitored [1][2]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Contents Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are weakly oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions leading to the weak operation of steel prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar remains weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 58,000 tons compared to the previous week, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked due to acceptable profit per ton. - The demand for rebar is at a low level. The weekly apparent demand increased by 48,600 tons compared to the previous week, and the high - frequency daily trading volume remains sluggish. Both are at the low level of the same period, and the off - season characteristics persist, putting pressure on the steel price. - The supply and demand of rebar are operating steadily, but industrial contradictions are accumulating. The steel price is under pressure, and the increase in cost limits the downward space [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance with most seeing inflation as a higher risk than employment. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel supply costs, and the domestic nickel ore market shows a tight supply situation. Refined nickel production has slightly increased, while on the demand - side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production and new - energy vehicle sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, nickel prices have declined, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with domestic and overseas inventories decreasing. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, there is a divergence between long and short positions, and the nickel price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 11.95 - 12.4 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 119,830 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread is - 130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,045 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Nickel is 102,385 lots, an increase of 51,529 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 32,546 lots, a decrease of 1,310 lots. LME nickel inventory is 209,346 tons, an increase of 18 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 22,588 tons, an increase of 29 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,200 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,270 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 195.01 dollars/ton, up 10.18 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 dollars/ton. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.22 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.04 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 104.14 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 169.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation was a higher risk than employment, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration released that the total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the photovoltaic industry's competition order and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short forces intertwined, and prices will mainly fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 20, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous day; the whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 1075, down 4.88%. Other raw material prices also showed different degrees of decline or stability [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 955, up 4.02% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 105, down 23.53%; the 5 - 9 spread was 1060, down 1.85% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production in Thailand, India, and China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased, while that of all - steel tires increased. In July, domestic tire production decreased, and export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber in June and July increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.89%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 10.02% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was relatively large, still facing the pressure of inventory accumulation. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton, and the upper limit likely to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips and buying put options to short when the price is high and volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feed material, N - type granular silicon, and other products remained unchanged on August 20 compared with the previous day, while the N - type material basis increased by 7.32% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price was 51,875, down 0.74% from the previous day. Different monthly spreads showed different degrees of increase or decrease [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased slightly, and monthly production increased. Monthly import volume increased, export volume decreased, and net export volume decreased. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production showed different trends, and import and export volumes decreased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory, silicon wafer inventory, and polysilicon warehouse receipts all increased [4]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The overall atmosphere in the industrial product futures market has weakened. After the previous macro - boost and related news disturbances ended, soda ash has returned to its fundamental logic and is operating weakly. Glass has been in a continuous weak operation. Short positions can be held for both [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions remained stable or declined on August 20. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased, and the prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 contracts also decreased [5]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The weekly production of soda ash increased significantly, and inventory returned to the pattern of accumulation. The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged, and the inventory of glass and soda ash increased [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The month - on - month data of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all showed different degrees of decline [5]. Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The cost of industrial silicon will gradually rise in the future. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some production capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 20, the prices of different types of industrial silicon decreased, and the basis of some types increased [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: Different monthly spreads of industrial silicon showed different degrees of increase or decrease [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased, but production in Xinjiang decreased, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. The national operating rate increased, with different trends in different regions. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while that of polysilicon and recycled aluminum alloy increased. Industrial silicon export volume increased [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factories and social inventory showed different trends [6]. Report on Logs Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of logs have a marginal improvement expectation, and the spot market is short - term strong. The demand is currently firm, and the inventory continues to be destocked. The futures price may oscillate in the range of 800 - 850. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 800 and mainly participate in buying on dips [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 20, the prices of log futures contracts decreased slightly, and the prices of spot logs in different ports remained unchanged. The new round of foreign - market quotes remained unchanged [8]. - **Supply**: The port shipping volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased in July compared with June. The inventory in major ports in China decreased in the week ending August 15 [8]. - **Demand**: The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased slightly in the week ending August 15 [8].