1. 8月29日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.33%，标普500指数期货跌0.30%，纳指期货跌0.51%。 | ■ US 30 | 45,488.00 | 45,610.00 | 45,456.00 | -148.90 | -0.33% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 6,482.40 | 6,505.40 | 6,477.10 | -19.50 | -0.30% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 23,582.50 | 23,708.80 | 23,560.60 | -121.00 | -0.51% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.44%，英国富时100指数跌0.24%，法国CAC40指数跌0.42%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.53%。 | 德國DAX30 | 23,938.97 | 24,050.08 | 23,881.39 | -105.26 | -0.44% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 端 英國富時100 | 9,194.37 ...

最新数据显示，德国通胀增速超预期，突破2%关口。此次公布的数据显示欧元区主要经济体物价走势 分化，但这可能仍不足以促使欧洲央行在下月调整利率政策。 德国联邦统计局周五发布数据称，受食品成本上涨和能源价格降幅收窄影响，8月通胀率从7月的1.8% 升至2.1%，高于经济学家调查预测的2%中值。 相比之下，当日早间公布的其他国家数据均未达预期：法国通胀率仍维持在0.8%的低位，远低于欧洲 央行目标;意大利录得1.7%，接近目标水平;西班牙则达到2.7%，已超过目标上限。 市场普遍预测，下周将公布的欧元区20国整体通胀数据将呈现温和加速态势。Bloomberg Economics预 计通胀率将从2%微升至2.1%。 这一形势使欧洲央行处于相对从容的决策位置。在上月的利率会议上，多数官员认为通胀风险"总体平 衡"，并强调欧洲经济在面对美国关税和俄乌战争等逆风时展现的"韧性"。此后官员们释放信号，表示 将在9月会议再次维持2%的借贷成本不变。投资者已不再确信今年还会进一步降息，不过经济学家仍预 期12月可能进行最后一次调整。 欧洲消费者并未表现出明显的通胀担忧。欧洲央行周五发布的调查显示，未来12个月的通胀预期在7月 保 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Last week, the market awaited the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Gold and silver prices first declined and then rose. After Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech, the expectation of Fed rate cuts increased, and gold and silver prices rebounded significantly. This week, attention should be paid to economic data from the US and China, as well as the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" on India. In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased, while that of Shanghai silver slightly increased, and market sentiment cooled [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - **Price Changes**: Shanghai gold (2510) closed down 0.23%, COMEX gold closed up 1%, Shanghai silver (2510) closed down 0.17%, and COMEX silver closed up 2.13%. The US dollar index weakened slightly, closing down 0.12%, and the RMB appreciated, closing down 0.25% [4][13]. - **Market Events**: At the beginning of the week, the market reacted to the US - Russia talks with limited results. Trump and Zelensky met, and there were discussions about a potential tri - lateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. US technology stocks tumbled in the middle of the week, affecting global risk appetite. Powell's dovish speech on Friday led to an increase in the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - **Economic Data**: The US July PCE, second - quarter GDP, and July durable goods orders data, China's August official PMI, and July industrial enterprise profit data are to be released this week. The US "reciprocal tariff" on India at 50% takes effect [13]. 2. Weekly Review - **Market Sentiment**: The market initially expected a hawkish stance from the central bank symposium but was surprised by a dovish one. After Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [13][14]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump and Zelensky met, and discussions about a tri - lateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine took place. However, due to the territorial issue, Putin is unlikely to meet with Zelensky [13][15]. - **Economic Indicators**: The US July new home starts increased by 5.2% year - on - year, reaching 1.428 million units. The US August manufacturing PMI reached a three - year high, while the service PMI slightly declined. The eurozone's business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the German manufacturing sector showed strong recovery [15][16]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Ratios**: Graphs show the ratio of domestic and foreign gold and silver spot prices, the relationship between London gold and the US dollar index, London silver and the US dollar index, and the performance of various stock indices and precious metals [17][19][20]. - **US Treasury Yields**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond oscillated and fell to 4.38% [24]. 4. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Positions**: The net position of Shanghai gold decreased, with both long and short positions decreasing. As of August 19, the CFTC gold net position remained net long but decreased, with more long positions cut and short positions increased [13][27][31]. - **Shanghai Silver Positions**: The net position of Shanghai silver slightly increased, with both long and short positions decreasing. The CFTC silver net long position increased, with more long positions added and short positions cut [13][30][31]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position oscillated and slightly decreased, and the silver ETF position oscillated and decreased [34][36]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase significantly, COMEX gold inventory continued to increase, Shanghai silver inventory oscillated and decreased, and COMEX silver inventory slightly increased [38][39][41].

根据美联储偏爱的通胀指标，7月份通胀率小幅上升，表明美国总统特朗普的关税政策正在影响美国经济。 美国商务部周五公布的一份报告显示，7月PCE物价指数同比增长2.6%，环比增长0.2%，符合市场预期；核心方面，扣除食品和能源成本的核心PCE通胀经 季节性因素调整后折合成年率为2.9%，为今年2月以来的最高水平，较6月上升了0.1个百分点；环比上升0.3%，也符合预期。 数据公布后，美元指数小幅上涨，现货黄金拉升约7美元。 分析师指出，考虑到美国PCE数据基本与预期一致，市场反应不大，这并不令人意外。市场定价保持不变，因为市场关注的焦点仍是下周即将公布的美国劳 动力市场数据。 最新数据显示，服务价格上升，这可能会引发人们对更令人担忧的通胀上升的担忧，因为特朗普的关税也在经济中发挥作用。目前，美国人仍在继续消费， 但在物价上涨和就业市场疲软的情况下，这种势头能持续多久还不清楚。 随着通胀率的上升，当月消费者支出增长了0.3%，与预期一致，尽管价格上涨，但仍显示出强劲的势头，个人收入增长0.4%。 市场预计美联储将在下月召开政策会议时继续下调基准利率。美联储主席鲍威尔上周在美联储杰克逊霍尔年度会议上发表讲话时，谨慎地 ...

智通财经APP获悉，尽管英国财政前景黯淡，但英国国债仍得到了Nedgroup Investments、Jupiter Asset Management和Mediolanum International Funds等知名投资机构的青睐。 目前，30年期英国国债收益率与1998年以来的最高点仅相差7个基点。投资者要求的这部分额外收益， 部分原因或许确实源于里夫斯即将在秋季预算案中公布支出计划前，市场所持有的谨慎态度。 但Roberts等人士认为，收益率高企的主要原因在于英国经济增速——今年上半年，英国经济增速超过 了七国集团(G7)的其他成员国，同时英国当前的通胀水平也处于18个月来的高位。 这一情况促使交易员下调了对英国央行降息的预期：目前市场认为，英国央行今年再降息25个基点的概 率已不足40%。 "痛苦交易" 越来越多的基金经理指出，英国国债收益率逼近三十年高位主要源于两大因素：英国经济展现超预期韧 性，以及央行必须维持高利率以遏制通胀。Nedgroup固定收益主管David Roberts反驳了市场关于财政大 臣蕾切尔·里夫斯因填补预算赤字而遭受债市惩罚的观点。他近期持续增持各期限英国国债(包括30年 期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rising bond yields exert significant political pressure, influencing leaders and their policies, as evidenced by recent events in the UK and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 3.8% to 4.2% over the past year, indicating a growing concern among investors regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The gap between the 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has reached its widest level since January 2022, signaling investor anxiety about long-term inflation threats and the erosion of Federal Reserve independence [4] - Current bond yields remain below the highs reached after Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, suggesting a more orderly increase despite rising long-term yields [5] Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's attempts to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, including threats to dismiss board members, raise concerns about potential political capture of the institution [2][3] - If Trump succeeds in weakening the Federal Reserve's independence, it could lead to higher expected inflation, impacting various loan rates and increasing government costs [3] - The political risks associated with rising long-term borrowing costs could adversely affect Trump's voter base, particularly as mortgage rates are linked to long-term bonds [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Investors are increasingly worried about the politicalization of the Federal Reserve, with concerns that cheap funding could fuel future inflation [3] - The market's current calmness may be attributed to the recent increase in government revenue from tariffs, which has alleviated fears regarding the fiscal situation [5][6] - The outcome of the legal case involving Federal Reserve board member Cook could significantly impact market stability and the future of the Federal Reserve's independence [6]

贵金属日评20250829: 初请失业金人数低于预期前值,关注7月个人消费支出价格指数PCE 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已,力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不拘成任何投资建议。投 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司赠不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-08-28 | 2025-08-27 | 2025-08-22 | 收盘价 | 783. 22 | 781.16 | 773. 40 | 2. 06 | 9. 82 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - France's inflation rate decreased to 0.8% and Spain's to 2.7%, both slightly below expectations by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is satisfied with the overall situation in the Eurozone despite varying inflation pressures in member countries [1] - The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% for the second consecutive month, with investors no longer fully pricing in further rate cuts this year [1] Group 2 - Bloomberg economists predict that the Eurozone's overall inflation rate will rise from 2% in July to 2.1% in August, driven by base effects from energy prices [2] - France's economic growth is lagging behind peers due to political and fiscal uncertainties, while Spain is performing well as a leading economy in the Eurozone [2] - Preliminary data for August shows a slowdown in service sector inflation from 2.5% in July to 2.1%, with industrial prices down 0.3% and energy prices down 6.2% [2]

周五美国核心PCE数据公布前，交易员保持谨慎，因为该数据影响美联储降息速度的预期，虽然鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的鸽派言论强化 了降息预期，但市场预计美国7月核心PCE可能升至2.9%，为5个月来最快增速，若通胀压力再起，降息节奏仍存变数。 8月29日周五，美股期货小幅下跌，欧股在多国公布CPI后回落超0.1%，如果欧股趋势延续，本周将是近四周来的首次周跌，法国政府 可能垮台的担忧，以及美联储独立性受到挑战的风险，拖累了本周欧洲股市表现。 其他资产中，美欧债市走弱，10年期美债收益率小升1个基点。美元涨0.1%，有望录得近四周来的首个周度涨幅。油价短期因俄乌局 势反复而震荡，周五回吐部分涨幅，但从全月来看，因市场担心供应过剩，油价整体仍下跌。铁矿石价格有望实现两个月连涨。新加 坡铁矿石期货稳定在每吨约104美元，8月份累涨近5%。 以下为核心资产走势： 美股期货小幅下跌，标普500期指跌超0.1%。 美股盘前，戴尔科技跌约6%，公司Q2营收利润超预期，Q3利润指引不及预期。中概股涨跌不一，小鹏汽车跌约1%，理想 汽车涨约1%。 欧股普跌，泛欧股指跌超0.1%，德国DAX指数跌超0.1%，英国富时100指数跌超0.2% ...

黄金震荡上行，不断爬升，而且连续破高，昨天一度大涨40美金，涨破3400的关口，进入阻力区域。 今天的走势 昨天大涨，攻破3400的关口。 又来到了阻力区，是继续涨还是要跌了。 今天回落3410，看调整力度。 先看3400的关口，再探此位置。 此位置支撑反弹，上方看涨延续。 再次破高，继续看3438的阻力和得失。 再次突破了此位置，持续看上方3450的阻力。 同时，处在3438下方，再次持续调整。 下方跌破了3400的位置，继续看到3366的支撑。 操作方面，黄金涨势延续，依然处在反弹形态，关注3400和3366做多的机会。此外，黄金上方面临关键 阻力区域，关注3438和3450做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美失业金降温，不过整体涨幅依然比较大，包括美第二季度GDP上修，着实很意外，关税的影 响不大，并未过大的冲击，整体或持续推升通胀。而且美联储也再次强调，维持独立性，不受任何的影 响，意味着美联储9月降息依然是个谜题，黄金承压调整。 另外一方面，美联储和特朗普内讧不断加剧，逼宫鲍威尔，罢免美联储理事库克后，昨天迎来反杀，库 克提起上诉，不断试图干预美联储政策预期，影响美主权信用风险。以及美联储不断放 ...