1月15日，美联储官员再度发声，称利率仍有较大下调空间，不过首先要看通胀情况。 美股方面，三大股指集体高开，截至发稿，纳指涨超0.7%。美股存储概念普涨，SanDisk涨超7%再破新 高！美光科技、西部数据、希捷科技涨超3%。 值得注意的是中概股，纳斯达克中国金龙指数在高开后行情突然变化，截至发稿下跌逾0.66%，盘中一 度跌超1%，个股方面，金山云、腾讯音乐均跌超4%，盛大科技、小马智行涨幅居前。 黄金白银今日集体跳水，其中，现货白银暴跌超3%，跌破90美元，黄金跌逾0.4%。 美联储官员博斯蒂克则认为，由于通胀过高，需要保持紧缩政策。他称，美国政府"停摆"扭曲了数据， 直至四月或五月（才能消除）。 责编：彭勃 校对：冉燕青 晚间，美联储官员密集表态，继续谈到降息与通胀问题。 美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周四表示，鉴于有充分迹象显示就业市场稳定，央行应将重点放在降低通 胀上，这番言论继续维持了今年晚些时候可能降息的预期。古尔斯比在接受采访时表示："就业市场仍 然很强劲，我认为我们面临的最重要问题是必须将通胀降回2%。利率仍有较大下调空间，今年就可能 进行降息，但前提是我们必须有令人信服的证据，证明通胀正回到2 ...

与其他美联储官员一致，古尔斯比重申央行独立性对实现物价稳定和充分就业目标至关重要。"确实有 一些国家对其央行展开刑事调查，但那是津巴布韦、俄罗斯、土耳其等国家，你不会把它们称为成熟的 发达经济体。" 古尔斯比还高度评价鲍威尔的任期表现，称其为"首轮入选名人堂级别"的美联储主席，认为鲍威尔在不 引发经济衰退的情况下成功压低了通胀。 古尔斯比并未就具体法律问题置评，但认同鲍威尔此前的观点，围绕施工项目的质疑，可能被视为总统 在利率问题上施压的"借口"。"如果因为不同意利率决策而以调查作为前提，那就太糟糕了，我们不该 走到这一步。" 美国总统特朗普近来持续对鲍威尔领导下的美联储进行尖锐、甚至带有人身色彩的批评，多次要求大幅 降息，并给鲍威尔贴上"太迟先生"的标签。值得注意的是，美联储自2025年9月以来已三次下调基准利 率。鲍威尔的主席任期将于今年5月结束，其美联储理事任期可延续至2028年。 美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周四表示，近期针对美联储及主席鲍威尔的攻击令人担忧，若削弱央行独 立性，可能对通胀前景造成不利影响。他还指出，鉴于有充分迹象显示就业市场稳定，央行应将重点放 在降低通胀上，这番言论继续维持了今年晚些 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储官员古尔斯比表示：若试图剥夺央行独立性，通胀将卷土重来。 ...

美联储官员古尔斯比：近期通胀数据显示关税影响可能减弱，这是最好的消息。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently in a phase of oscillation against major currencies, influenced by commodity prices, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy direction, and expectations of Chinese demand [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The Australian economy is experiencing a moderate recovery with stable private demand and a robust labor market, but growth is slowing, the housing market is cooling, and inflation remains above target despite a decline [1] - As a resource-exporting country, the AUD's commodity currency nature ties it closely to core commodity prices, with Chinese demand expectations and global commodity fluctuations directly impacting exports [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The core driver for the AUD is the divergence in RBA policy, with the governor signaling a potential resumption of interest rate hikes due to concerns over uncontrolled inflation after several rounds of rate cuts [1] - Market speculation regarding the RBA's policy direction in the first half of the year is intense, with uncertainty being a key variable affecting the AUD [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD is currently in a balanced oscillation range, with technical signals being ambiguous; strong support is formed by moving averages and previous lower bounds, while resistance is created by prior highs and psychological levels [2] - Indicators show a neutral position with no overbought or oversold conditions, and the overall trend is still developing, with potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions predict that the AUD will primarily oscillate in 2026, closely tied to RBA policy, commodity trends, and Chinese demand [2] - Key upcoming data to watch includes U.S. data affecting the dollar and Australian quarterly inflation data, which will directly influence policy expectations and provide direction for the AUD [2]

Core Insights - The core inflation rate in the U.S. for December increased by 2.6% year-on-year, which is lower than expected [1] - Food prices have significantly risen, contradicting claims from the Trump administration that grocery prices are decreasing [3][13] Food Price Trends - Over the past year, beef prices rose by 16.4%, coffee by 19.8%, lettuce by 7.3%, and frozen fish by 8.6% [3][13] - The overall cost of household food consumption increased by 2.4% in the past 12 months, with a monthly increase of 0.7% in December, marking the largest monthly rise since October 2022 [4][14] - Despite some food categories like eggs seeing a price drop of 20.9%, five out of six tracked food categories experienced price increases [5][15] Consumer Behavior Changes - Low-income consumers are prioritizing essential items and opting for cheaper alternatives, reducing their purchase quantities and increasing shopping frequency [5][15] - Middle-class consumers are also shifting their purchasing habits, focusing on promotions and store-brand products to save costs [5][15] Impact of Tariffs and Policies - Tariff policies have had a limited direct impact on most food prices, as the majority of food consumed in the U.S. is domestically produced [5][15] - Imported goods like coffee and tropical fruits have seen price increases due to tariffs, with bananas rising by 5.9% year-on-year in December [7][16] Labor Market and Agricultural Costs - Labor shortages in agriculture are exacerbated by tightened immigration policies, affecting the availability of workers for harvesting crops [10][20] - Agricultural labor costs are a significant driver of overall industry expenses, accounting for about 50% of total spending [20] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a 2.3% increase in household food prices by 2026, maintaining a similar growth rate as in 2025 [19] Economic Outlook - The current inflation data suggests that while inflation is not spiraling out of control, the claims of decreasing food prices by the government are unfounded [4][14] - The ongoing labor shortages and rising costs of agricultural inputs may continue to pressure food prices in the near future [20]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/15 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1035.200 | -5.4↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22665 | -98.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 93,276.00 | -7403.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 1,470.00 | +32.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 190,086.00 | -11001.00↓ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of geopolitical events, specifically the U.S. military action against Venezuela, on global oil prices and market dynamics, indicating a shift in supply expectations and increased volatility in energy markets [1][3][5] - Oil prices surged dramatically, with Brent crude rising by 4.26% and WTI by 3.14%, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities [1][3] - The rise in oil prices was accompanied by a spike in precious metals, with gold and silver reaching new highs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. military action is viewed not just as a response to unrest but as a strategic maneuver to influence energy supply and market pricing power, signaling the importance of energy security in global power dynamics [5][12] - The article emphasizes that even minor disruptions in supply can lead to significant price fluctuations, especially in a context of low inventories and rising seasonal demand [6][12] - The internal economic landscape in the U.S. shows mixed signals, with non-farm payroll data reflecting uncertainty, yet the market remains optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, leading to increased volatility in stock indices [8][10] Group 3 - The rising oil and precious metal prices have direct implications for energy import costs, potentially increasing inflationary pressures on consumers in various sectors [12][14] - The article suggests several policy responses to mitigate these impacts, including stabilizing market expectations, enhancing domestic energy efficiency, and monitoring financial risks associated with consumer debt [14][16] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that geopolitical events can have far-reaching effects, necessitating a focus on resilience and diversification in energy supply strategies [16]

•BMI报告预计，马来西亚央行将在2026年全年维持2.75%的政策利率不变。尽管经济增速或从2025年的 4.6%放缓至4.1%，但内需韧性及可控通胀（预计1.9%）支撑按兵不动立场。同时，美联储终端利率预 期下调至3.25%，美马利差收窄利好林吉特，BMI将2026年底美元兑林吉特汇率预期从4.10上调至4.00 （当前约4.0505）。 PIMCO：因美国政策不可预测，将系统性降低美国资产敞口 BMI：马来西亚央行2026年将按兵不动，林吉特有望走强至4.00 澳大利亚国民银行：产能利用率创18个月新高，澳储行2月加息预期升温 【机构分析】 •劳埃德银行外汇策略师指出，特朗普政府推动对美联储采取法律行动具有明显政治动机。尽管其任内 经济数据表面亮眼，但民众实际就业状况恶化——多个行业岗位减少，失业人数累计增加约70万。在就 业基本面持续走弱背景下，拥有独立决策权的美联储正被当作"非常方便的替罪羊"。美国政府通过指责 其货币政策，试图转移公众对劳动力市场深层次问题的关注，掩盖经济增长与民生脱节的现实。 •野村资产管理策略师表示，在通胀企稳、名义GDP加速增长的背景下，日本企业盈利有望持续扩张。 近年来日本 ...

记者丨孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 作为美联储密切关注的更基础的通胀指标，剔除住房后的超级核心通胀2025年12月环比增长 约0.3%，较前值放缓，同比增长约2.7%，比2025年11月略有上升（1年前约为4%），均处于 疫情以来最低区域，而剔除住房后的整个核心CPI仅增长0.1%，说明通胀回归2%目标的"最后 一公里"虽然漫长，但总体趋势仍在延续。 美联储的决策依据不是CPI，而是美国商务部公布的PCE通胀数据。住房在CPI篮子中权重占 比33%，在核心CPI中占比近40%，但在PCE中仅占15%，PCE通胀数据通常低于CPI数据，预 计2025年12月仍将如此，考虑到上述住房因素，可能幅度更大。2025年和2024年年初通胀均 有所反弹和顽固，主要由于许多企业年初调整价格，再加天气因素，下一步1、2月份通胀数 据需继续关注。 美国通胀在高关税环境中相对温和再次挑战了经济学理论。经济学基本逻辑认为，提高关税 会增加进口商品价格，通常会带来一次性的通胀上行，实际却更为复杂。美国关税冲击会增 加美国经济不确定性，削弱企业投资意愿和消费者信心，造成需求下降，价格自然面临下行 如果说2025年11月因 ...