Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Yunnan Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4][7]. Core Views - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals with U.S. non-farm employment exceeding expectations while GDP contracted, leading to concerns about economic stagnation. However, domestic monetary easing measures are expected to support industrial metal prices [2][3]. - The report highlights a shift in the supply-demand balance for cobalt and lithium, with cobalt prices expected to rise due to supply constraints, while lithium prices are under pressure from high inventory levels [3]. - Precious metals are viewed positively due to increased geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank gold purchases, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper: The SMM import copper concentrate index decreased by $43.11 per dry ton, indicating a tightening supply situation. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises fell to 83.49%, reflecting weak demand [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a notable decrease in social inventory by 16,000 tons, indicating a shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. - Zinc: The report notes fluctuations in zinc prices influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade uncertainties, with LME zinc prices recorded at $2,601 per ton [2][47]. Energy Metals - Cobalt: The report indicates ongoing supply tightness due to Congo's export ban, with prices expected to enter a new upward phase as inventory levels decrease [3]. - Lithium: Demand remains weak with downstream material manufacturers waiting for further price declines, while supply remains high, leading to continued downward pressure on prices [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: The report notes that the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months, supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions [3]. - Silver: Although silver prices have declined, they are expected to rebound more significantly than gold if gold prices increase, due to silver's industrial applications [3]. Key Companies and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.57 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 11 [4]. - Other recommended companies include Luoyang Molybdenum, Yunnan Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, with similar positive outlooks on their earnings and valuations [4].

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have slightly decreased, with overall prices remaining above 1020 CNY per gram, indicating a high market level [1] - Major gold retailers like Zhou Liufu have seen a price drop of 18 CNY per gram, with the latest price at 1022 CNY per gram, which is the highest among the stores [1] - The price difference between gold stores has narrowed significantly to 29 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recovery market has also seen a decline, with gold store recovery prices dropping by 22.3 CNY per gram [2] - Specific recovery prices for various brands are as follows: Cai Zi at 768.70 CNY, Zhou Shengsheng at 766.30 CNY, and Zhou Dafu at 770.70 CNY [2] Group 3 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a peak at 3414.49 USD per ounce before closing at 3305.30 USD per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.76% [4] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the US-UK trade agreement, which alleviated market concerns about trade wars, alongside strong US economic data and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve [4] - Current market sentiment suggests that if a US-China trade agreement is reached, gold prices may face significant resistance and could drop to at least 3200 USD per ounce [4]

1、中东局势（以色列与伊朗冲突）、德国政治不确定性及特朗普对好莱坞征收100%关税的政策扰动仍在，持续刺激避险需求，对黄金价格有一定的支撑作 用。但美英达成贸易协议，使得市场避险情绪显著降温，风险偏好升温，导致国际金价大幅下挫，这显示出地缘政治局势对黄金价格影响的复杂性，不同事 件的综合作用使得市场对避险需求的态度有所转变。 2、美联储5月7日维持利率不变，且声明强调"通胀压力仍需观察"，市场对6月降息预期降温，美元指数得到支撑有所回升，这压制了以美元计价的黄金的吸 引力。同时，市场对即将公布的美国4月CPI数据（预期3.5%）较为关注，若数据超预期，可能进一步强化美联储鹰派立场，对黄金价格形成更大压力；若 数据疲软，则可能使降息预期升温，从而对黄金价格产生支撑。 3、2025年一季度全球央行净购金290吨，中国连续17个月增持黄金储备，央行的持续购金行为表明对黄金长期价值的认可，从长期来看，为黄金价格提供了 有力支撑。不过在短期，央行购金行为对黄金市场价格的影响相对较小，难以抵消其他宏观因素如货币政策和地缘政治局势变化带来的短期波动。 黄金技术面分析： 黄金消息面解析 昨日现货黄金价格开盘3366.2美元/ ...

昨日黄金冲高回落，亚盘初于 3415 承压，空单 3413.6 入场；欧盘反弹 3369 后二次承压，空单 3368.5 跟进。整体延续极弱下行，尾盘破 3300 加速探至 3288，凌晨反弹至 3300 上方，日线收长下影阳线，显示短期支撑有效，但反弹动能受前波段趋势压制。当前金价在 3300 - 3348 区间震荡，上方阻力 3348 - 3352，若突破需警惕二次冲高至 3365；下方支撑 3295 - 3303，若失守或回踩 3275 - 3255 区域。交易需紧盯关键位动态。 操作策略： 金融市场受美英协议影响，避险情绪降温，黄金、日元等避险资产遭抛售，标普 500 指数上扬。市场对美联储 6 月降息预期大降，美债收益率显著上涨。同 时亚洲大国放松黄金进口购汇限制，助力黄金进口。当前美英协议虽有积极信号，但贸易担忧犹存。投资者后续需紧盯贸易局势、市场情绪变化及美联储官 员讲话，以把握市场走向。 近期国际贸易与金融市场风云变幻。贸易端美英达成"突破性协议"，英国大幅降低美商品关税至 1.8%并扩大准入，美仍对英商品维持 10%关税。协议虽带 来乐观情绪，但欧盟放话若与美谈判不取消关税，将对 950 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals and steel industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights a slight pressure on gold prices due to eased tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [2][50] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a 1.87% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.06 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sectors [11] - The steel sector has increased by 2.85% in the same period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.04 percentage points, ranking 15th [11] Market Overview - As of May 8, 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector's sub-sectors showed varied performance: - New materials up 7.15% - Minor metals up 4.95% - Industrial metals up 1.66% - Energy metals up 0.76% - Precious metals down 2.09% [15][51] - The industrial metals sector reported a revenue of 630.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.86% [52] Key Company Insights - Recommended companies include: - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) - Shandong Gold Mining (600547) - Zijin Mining (601899) [51] - China Rare Earth Holdings (000831) reported a revenue of 728 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 141.32% [53] - Kingstone Technology (300748) achieved a revenue of 1.754 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.19% [53] Price Trends - As of May 8, 2025, key prices include: - COMEX gold at $3,310.40 per ounce, up $62 from the beginning of the month - COMEX silver at $32.86 per ounce, down $0.045 [29][50] - LME copper price at $9,474.50 per ton, aluminum at $2,408.50 per ton, and lead at $1,952.50 per ton [25]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普巨额减税方案的立法工作将 于下周正式启动，尽管共和党内部仍存分歧，但至关重要的众 议院委员会将开始审议相关立法。共和党仍在激烈辩论重要的 细节，包括扩大州和地方税收抵免以及限制遗产税等内容。 评：避险情绪有所减弱，美元指数反弹，利空黄金。黄金下方 空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思路为宜。 【短评-甲醇】江苏太仓甲醇市场价2380元/吨，下降42元/ 吨；甲醇开工92.17%，周上升2.45%；西北能源30万吨/年甲醇 装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率71.22%，周下降 0.82%；中国甲醇港口样本库存46.32万吨，周下降12.24万吨； 甲醇样本生产企业库存30.98万吨，周减少0.26万吨。评：成本 端煤炭价格预期偏弱，当前甲醇利润尚可，国内甲醇开工预期 高位运行，下游需求下降，本周外轮到港量预期环比增量，港 口甲醇库存或累库。内地甲醇部分市场走跌，企业竞拍成交一 般，港口甲醇市场基差偏强，整体商谈成交尚可。预计甲醇09 合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2210一线，建议观望或回调短线 做多。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月09日 研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is focusing on the upcoming details of the trade agreement between the US and the UK, leading to a decrease in risk-averse sentiment and a significant test for gold as a key indicator of market sentiment [1] Group 1 - The anticipation of the US-UK trade agreement is influencing market dynamics, with traders closely monitoring the developments [1] - The reduction in risk-averse sentiment suggests a shift in investor confidence, potentially impacting asset allocation strategies [1] - Gold is being highlighted as a critical point of contention, serving as a barometer for market sentiment during this period of uncertainty [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price has shown significant volatility, with a closing price of $3,438.55 on May 7, down $67.04 or 1.95% from the previous trading day [2][3] - The gold price is expected to retreat to the $3,300 level due to a combination of factors including easing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [3][4] - Despite the recent decline, there is still strong support for gold prices around $3,300, with resistance levels at $3,400 and significant pressure at $3,430-$3,450 [4] Group 2 - The market remains cautious due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between India and Pakistan, which sustain risk-averse sentiment among investors [3] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below the $3,360 support level, further declines to $3,330 and $3,300 are likely [4] - The Bollinger Bands suggest that gold prices are likely to remain in a range-bound pattern, with a low probability of a sustained upward trend [3][4]

Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, international gold prices exhibited a "deep V" trend, initially dropping to the $3200 mark due to unexpected news such as the breakdown of Japan's tariff negotiations and Trump's expansion of tariffs, but quickly rebounding to over $3400 per ounce as risk aversion increased [1] - The gold ETF (159937) saw a nearly 1% increase, achieving a transaction volume exceeding 400 million yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 45% in the past year [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with Chairman Powell indicating no urgency to adjust rates, despite rising uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings, with expectations of fewer than or equal to two rate cuts within the year [2] - The market remains volatile, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and the unclear outlook for U.S. stocks, with a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the dollar [2] - Recent economic data showed a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter decline in U.S. GDP, indicating the impact of tariffs, while personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.8% [3] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) closely tracks domestic gold prices with an annualized tracking error of only 0.3%, allowing investors to avoid storage and authentication costs while trading through a securities account [4]

近期黄金外汇市场受多因素影响波动明显。川普拟对海外制作电影征100%关税，加剧贸易战担忧，避 险情绪升温，投资者涌入金市推高金价，贸易政策不确定性也致各类指数波动剧烈。随后因中美贸易谈 判乐观情绪及对美联储政策声明的预期，避险需求降低，金价从高位回落。此前，现货黄金曾触及4月 22日以来最高水平。凌晨美联储维持利率不变影响较小。鉴于国际贸易消息持续影响市场，投资者需密 切关注并调整策略。 周三黄金市场表现疲软，以大阴柱收盘。亚盘时段，黄金短线高开于3438后暴跌70点，随后回调至 3360，并对3350进行测试。日内黄金一直在3400 - 3360区间震荡。凌晨美联储维持利率不变，市场受此 影响较小，但黄金下行趋势有所增强，尾盘收于3364。对于日内行情可关注3350一线的支撑位以及3395 一线的压力位。王召金建议在3390点位做空，目标看向3375 - 3360。 白银行情走势分析： 昨日白银行情以一根下影线很长的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线阴包阳；从1 - 4小时级别走 势来看，昨日白银在33.30处受到压制，拉升至33.232上方后便开始回撤，成功回撤至32.22附近，尾盘 收于32.43附近 ...