Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Data - The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily investment of 103 billion yuan after 176 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open - market operations will mature, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the funds due on Thursday and Friday will be postponed to the first trading day after the holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", creating new structural monetary policy tools, and establishing new policy - based financial tools, but the urgency of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has decreased [4] Group 2: Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45% with a - 1.96bp change, DR007 at 1.75% with a 3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.90% with a 21.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.85% with a 7.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.75% with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60% with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.46% with a 1.00bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.54% with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65% with a - 1.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29% with a - 3.00bp change [3] Group 3: Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 fell 0.14% to 3781.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.09% to 2651.2, the CSI 500 fell 0.51% to 5598.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.05% to 5877.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.0564 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.2 billion yuan from last Friday [5] - Industry sectors generally declined, with real estate services, real estate development, food and beverage, tourism and hotels, engineering consulting services, decoration and building materials, and commercial department stores leading the decline, while only banks, games, jewelry, steel, and power industries rose [5] - The Politburo meeting on April 25 released limited incremental information on aggregate policies, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies and the refinement of support policies in specific areas [6] - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the strong Q1 economic data in China reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Considering the high overseas uncertainty during the May Day holiday and the low option volatility, a double - buying strategy for stock index options can be considered before the holiday [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - quarter, next - month, current - month, and next - quarter contracts are 10.41%, 9.29%, 7.33%, and 5.51% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 4.46%, 6.03%, 5.41%, and 3.56% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 15.32%, 15.66%, 11.48%, and 9.61% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the corresponding contracts are 16.86%, 17.35%, 13.18%, and 11.40% respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to move in a range, while government bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5]. - Black building materials: Rebar is expected to move sideways, iron ore is expected to weaken slightly, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7]. - Non-ferrous metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin is recommended for trading within a range, and gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][12]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move sideways, while soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][20]. - Cotton spinning industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen slightly, and PTA is expected to weaken slightly [1][31]. - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are expected to weaken, corn is recommended to go long on dips, soybean meal is expected to decline, and oils and fats are expected to move sideways [1][32]. Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, supply and demand dynamics, and international trade relations [1][5]. - Tariff policies and trade frictions have a significant impact on the market, and investors need to pay attention to the development of these issues [5][7]. - The supply and demand situation of each product is different, and investors need to analyze the specific situation of each product to make investment decisions [7][12]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures are expected to move in a range due to the low probability of major positive policies before the holiday and the need for defensive strategies [5]. - Government bonds are expected to rise slightly in the short term, but the low - volatility market may continue until clear policy signals or economic data are released [5]. Black building materials - Rebar is expected to move sideways. Although the current supply - demand situation is acceptable, the impact of tariffs on exports and the seasonal decline in demand may lead to weak market expectations. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs to be observed [7]. - Iron ore is expected to weaken slightly. The increase in iron - water production has led to expectations of a peak and decline, and concerns about the sustainability of exports. The supply and demand are both strong, but it is about to enter the traditional off - season [7]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways. The coking coal market may maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the coke market may maintain a tight supply - demand balance. The focus is on the release of terminal demand and the change of inventory [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to move in a high - level range. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand side is supported by the peak season. However, the upward space is limited by the impact of the trade war on the global economy [12]. - Aluminum is recommended for observation. The supply of the mine end is improving, and the demand is gradually increasing. The price may continue to rebound, but the overall situation needs to be further observed [14]. - Nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies. The supply is excessive, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The focus is on the impact of Indonesian policies and downstream demand [15]. - Tin is recommended for trading within a range. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price may fluctuate greatly [17]. - Gold and silver are recommended for trading within a range. The market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and interest - rate expectations. The price is expected to be in an adjustment state [18]. Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to move sideways. The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term price is affected by macro factors and export and maintenance conditions [20]. - Caustic soda is expected to move sideways. The supply is sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. The focus is on inventory changes and export conditions [21]. - Rubber is expected to move sideways. The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The price is affected by factors such as weather, inventory, and demand [22]. - Urea is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is affected by factors such as production progress and inventory [24]. - Methanol is recommended for trading within a range. The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and port supply [26]. - Plastic is expected to move sideways. The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by factors such as new capacity, demand, and inventory [28]. - Soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure until sufficient maintenance occurs [28]. Cotton spinning industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply. The Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and it is recommended to observe in the near future [30]. - Apples are expected to strengthen slightly. The inventory is low, and the demand is good. The focus is on the fruit - setting situation [30]. - PTA is expected to weaken slightly. The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are not good. The price is under pressure [31]. Agricultural and livestock products - Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [32]. - Eggs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are both increasing, and the risk of a decline after the May Day holiday needs to be guarded against. The long - term supply pressure is increasing [34]. - Corn is recommended to go long on dips. The short - term price is supported, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening, but the upward space is limited by substitutes [35]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline in the short term and rise in the long term. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term cost is increasing and the supply is tightening [37]. - Oils and fats are expected to move sideways. The short - term price has certain upward momentum, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there is no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US. China has strong strategic determination, and the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low. It is advisable to adopt a defensive strategy during the holiday [1] - **Treasury Bond**: During the policy - free window period, there is no clear market guidance, and the bond market is in a calm state. The market is fatigued by the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations under the medium - and long - term logic, and the pricing is gradually weakening. Before clear policy signals or economic data are released, the low - volatility market of the bond market may continue [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.97% [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] Futures Data - On April 28, 2025, detailed data on closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year treasury bond, 5 - year treasury bond, 30 - year treasury bond, and 2 - year treasury bond are provided [9]

碳酸锂周报： 市场利多消息扰动，基本面指引依然偏空 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.4.25 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国即将召开重要会议，近期各省市正在密集出台关于扩内需促消费的相关方案。美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值 50.7，预期49，前值50.2；服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.6，前值54.4，制造额表现超出预期，但商业活动增长降至16个月低点。 特朗普"改口"表示没打算解雇鲍威尔，并且对中国商品的关税不会高达145%，未来中美将对关税问题进行谈判。市场情绪得到 大幅缓解，但从长期来看风险依旧没有完全解除。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量连续6周下滑，但仍处于绝对高位。头部大厂检修，部分外采矿企业开始减停产，但随着盐湖进入季 节性生产旺季国内产量将再度回升。3月智利出口碳酸锂至中国1.66万吨，环比增加38%，同比增加3%。 【需求端】4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长20%，较上月同期下降11%，零售渗透率 53.3%，今年以来累计零售289.8万辆，同比增长33%；全国乘用车厂商新能源批发53万辆，同比去 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Next week (April 28 - 30), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should avoid risks during the May Day holiday. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations and spring - planting weather for US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures market has recently been affected by the sharp rise and fall of the spot market, and the current concerns in the spot market have been initially alleviated. The soybean meal futures price may decline and may pre - trade the pressure of arrivals in May - June. If the soybean spot crushing capacity increases rapidly after May Day, the spot price may decline rapidly; otherwise, it may decline slowly. Domestic soybeans have recently mainly followed the price fluctuations of soybean meal. When the soybean meal price rises, the enthusiasm for purchasing oil soybeans increases, driving up the price of food soybeans. Overall, there are still uncertainties in the external and domestic spot markets, so it is necessary to avoid holiday risks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends of US Soybeans and Domestic Futures Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **US Soybeans**: The prices of US soybean futures showed mixed trends with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The decline was due to President Trump's criticism of the Fed Chairman for not cutting interest rates in a timely manner and China's denial of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The increase was due to hopes of US trade negotiations, the US saying that Sino - US negotiations were ongoing, and Trump saying that he had no plan to fire the Fed Chairman. There were no large - scale sales orders for US soybeans this week. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of April 25, the main 07 contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.19%, and the main 07 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 1.62% [1]. - **Domestic Futures**: The prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean futures first rose and then fell. For soybean meal, the price fluctuations on the futures market mainly came from the indirect influence of the spot market and the 05 contract. At the beginning of the week, the spot price rose significantly, and the northern region drove up the price in the southern region due to spot shortages. On Thursday afternoon and Friday, the spot price dropped significantly, and the tension in the spot market was initially alleviated. For soybeans, the price mainly followed the large - scale fluctuations of the soybean meal spot price. When the soybean meal price rose, the enthusiasm for purchasing oil soybeans increased, driving up the price of food soybeans. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of April 25, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 0.33%, and the main a2507 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.94% [2]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and were lower than expected, which had a negative impact. In the week of April 17, for shipments, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 500,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 31%. The cumulative export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 4.276 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments of US soybeans to China were about 70,000 tons, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 2.214 million tons (about 2.351 million tons in the same period last year). In terms of sales, the weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current season (2024/25) were about 280,000 tons (about 550,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales in the next market season (2025/26) were about - 12,000 tons (about 180,000 tons in the previous week), with a combined total of about 280,000 tons (about 730,000 tons in the previous week), lower than the expected 300,000 - 700,000 tons. The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop season (2024/25) were about 180,000 tons (about 700,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales to China in the next crop season (2025/26) were 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: As of the week of April 21, the US soybean planting progress was 8%, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average of 5%, which had a neutral impact [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Profit**: As of the week of April 25, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for June - July decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased slightly week - on - week [2]. - **Weather Forecast in US Soybean - Producing Areas**: According to the weather forecast on April 26, in the next two weeks (April 27 - May 11), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas was basically normal, and the temperature was relatively high, which had a neutral impact [2]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Conditions Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 260,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 115,000 tons, compared with about 117,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 649 yuan/ton, compared with about 231 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 82 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of April 18, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 58% and a year - on - year decrease of about 73% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase slightly next week. According to the forecast of Steel Union (125 oil mills), as of the week of April 25, the weekly domestic soybean crushing volume was about 1.41 million tons (1.32 million tons in the previous week and 1.92 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate was about 40% (37% in the previous week and 55% in the same period last year). Next week (April 26 - May 2), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 1.47 million tons (1.72 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate is 41% (49% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On April 28, there will be another auction of imported soybeans. On April 23, the planned auction of imported soybeans was about 624,000 tons, and the actual transaction was about 107,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 17.2% and an average price of 3,780 yuan/ton. According to the announcement of the National Grain Trading Center on April 24, the planned auction of imported soybeans on April 28 is 456,000 tons, which has a negative impact and will relieve the tight spot market [4]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market Conditions Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **Price Differentiation**: The prices of soybeans in the Northeast production area and the Inner - Pass area increased, while the prices in the sales areas were stable. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas was in the range of 4,120 - 4,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the Inner - Pass area, the purchase price range of clean soybeans was 5,060 - 5,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,480 - 4,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Impact of Soybean Meal Price on Soybean Purchase in the Northeast**: With the significant increase in the soybean meal price, the production enthusiasm of processing enterprises in the region has increased, and they are actively purchasing raw soybeans. The prices of oil soybeans and low - protein soybeans have risen, driving up the price of food soybeans. The sowing time of the new crop is postponed compared with last year due to more precipitation and lower temperatures in the production area, and soybean sowing is expected to start after May Day [5]. - **Soybean Auction in Inner Mongolia**: The soybean auctions in Inner Mongolia were successful. On April 23, the first auction planned to sell 142,500 tons, and the actual transaction was 133,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3,884 yuan/ton. The purchased lots were mostly obtained by processing enterprises and large - scale groups. After adding the cost of discount, miscellaneous fees, and warehousing fees, the cost of this batch of soybeans was above 4,050 yuan/ton, which strongly supported the price of soybeans produced in 2024. On April 27, the second auction planned to sell about 87,000 tons, and the actual transaction was 77,500 tons, with an average transaction price of 3,881.5 yuan/ton. In addition, the market expects that policy - based reserve soybeans will be put into the market in May, which needs continuous attention [5]. - **Stable Demand in Sales Areas**: Although the prices of soybeans in the production areas have risen, the selling prices in many markets are stable. Most dealers still have unsold inventory from the previous period, and the new demand for soybeans from terminal soybean product manufacturers is limited. Various soybean product manufacturers are cautious in purchasing raw soybeans, the transaction of Northeast soybeans is slightly slow, and it is difficult for dealers to increase prices [5].

MSC+Premier Alliance，MSC 4月份船期报价1260/2110，5月上半月船期报价1260/2110；ONE 4月份下半月船期 报价1837/1841，5月上半月船期报价1837/1841；HMM 4月下半月期报价1192/1954，5月上半月船期报价1192/1954。 Ocean Alliance，COSCO 4月下半月以及5月上半月船期报价2175/3625；CMA 4月下半月船期报价1335/2245，5月 份上半月船期报价1335/2245，5月下半月船期报价2335/4245；EMC 5月份上半月船期报价1255/2060；OOCL 4月下 半月以及5月第一周船期报价1250/1900。OA联盟代表COSCO线下报价出炉，4/25-5/14日价格降至1350/1850，AE7/9 航线价格1275/1750，后期双子星联盟以及MSC/PA联盟5月上半月价格将会跟随，目前5月上半月价格中枢将继续 下降至1800-1900美元/FEU左右，马士基5月下半月价格尚未公布，预计公布价格1600-1700美元/FEU之间。 地缘端：根据伊朗外交部22日发表的声明，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overnight VIX index declined, and the improvement in macro sentiment drove the rebound of oil prices. The potential significant reduction of tariffs on China further alleviated market concerns, leading to a continued increase in oil prices during the Asian session. However, without effective resolution of the tariff issue, long - term market suppression is expected to persist. The polyester industry still faces demand drag, and with the approaching "May Day" holiday in China, the terminal operating rate may further decline [2]. - PTA prices rose due to the temporary easing of trade frictions, improved market sentiment, rising crude oil prices, and increased downstream polyester sales. Although PTA social inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in history, there are signs of a slight reduction in the past month, with hopes of inventory reduction from April to May. But due to macro news and demand drag, the upward drive of raw materials is continuously weakening [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market's center of gravity rose. The supply - side quotes were mixed, and downstream terminal buying improved in the afternoon. The bottle - chip industry's operating rate has increased recently, and mainstream producers intend to cut production to support prices. The market follows a cost - pricing logic [2]. - Considering the increased possibility of Sino - US negotiations and the overnight oil market situation, it is expected that PX will operate strongly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On April 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.27/barrel, down 2.20%; Brent crude oil was $66.12/barrel, down 1.96%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $589/ton, up 2.26%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $658/ton, up 0.38%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $750/ton, up 1.63% [1]. - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4408 yuan/ton, up 2.37%; settlement price was 4342 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4299 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4345 yuan/ton, up 1.14%, and the external price index was $570.5/ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PX**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6224 yuan/ton, up 2.88%; settlement price was 6114 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged at 5956 yuan/ton. The PXN spread was $161/ton, down 0.62%, and the PX - MX spread was $92/ton, up 11.52% [1]. - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5686 yuan/ton, up 1.32%; settlement price was 5626 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5650 yuan/ton, up 0.89%, and in the South China market was 5700 yuan/ton, up 0.88% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8375 yuan/ton; the index of polyester POY was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester staple fiber was 6260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester chips was 5500 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5650 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 72.50%. The PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 82.14%, up 3.26%; the polyester factory load rate was 90.11%, up 1.16%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.44%, up 4.00%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 63.43% [1]. Production and Sales - On April 23, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 72.00%, up 32.00% from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 93.00%, up 24.00%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 207.00%, up 166.00% [1]. Device Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to overhaul its 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in Huizhou on April 28 and its 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Dalian around May 10, and will reduce the contract supply in May [2]. Trading Strategy - Due to the increased possibility of Sino - US negotiations, the TA2509 contract closed at 4408 yuan/ton (2.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.19 million lots; the PX 2509 contract closed at 6224 yuan/ton (2.91%), with an intraday trading volume of 20,270 lots; the PR 2506 contract closed at 5686 yuan/ton (1.68%), with an intraday trading volume of 43,400 lots. Overnight, international oil prices first rose and then fell, but the decline narrowed after reports that US President Trump might lower tariffs on Chinese imports. It is expected that PX will operate strongly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 4,350 billion, 2,006 billion, and 1,406 billion respectively, with net financing of 3,800 billion, 1,227 billion, and 1,406 billion [2] - The secondary market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the overall curve flattening, influenced by factors such as liquidity, economic financial data, and U.S. policy volatility [2] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank net injected liquidity to offset MLF maturities and tax periods, resulting in a balanced liquidity environment, with R001 and R007 rising by 3.8 basis points and 1 basis point respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic and financial data for March exceeded expectations, but there are concerns regarding the economic outlook for the second quarter. High-frequency data indicates a divergence in production indicators, with strong performance in upstream sectors and weakness in downstream sectors, alongside declining real estate and export sentiment [4] Overseas Market - Trade negotiations between the U.S. and multiple countries have commenced, leading to a decrease in volatility in overseas markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, down 14 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The Shanghai Composite Index showed consecutive gains from Monday to Thursday, indicating clear support from state-owned entities, while the ChiNext Index performed relatively weaker. The overall A-share market rose by 0.39%, with the Shanghai 50 up by 1.45% and the CSI 300 up by 0.59%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.64%. A-share trading volume significantly decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.11 trillion, down 502.3 billion week-on-week [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has entered a period of observation and fluctuation, awaiting further developments in domestic and international events. The macroeconomic environment is complex, and the market lacks a clear direction. Key focus areas for the second quarter include the progress of U.S.-China tariff negotiations and potential domestic policy adjustments, with the upcoming Politburo meeting serving as an important window for observing mid-year policy trends [7]