6月，债券二级市场整体交易活跃度回温，信用债成交金额同比与环比增幅显著。在宏观流动性环境和基本面共同作 用下，信用利差呈现震荡微幅收窄态势，月末利差水平为46.32bp。展望后市，受降息预期影响，基准利率仍有下行 空间，基本面修复节奏不确定性增加，信用债收益率大概率在宽幅波动中下行，且下行幅度也将超过基准利率，推 动信用利差继续震荡收窄。 信用利差方面，整体呈现震荡中微幅收窄的态势。与去年同期相比，上升11.68bp，而较上月末则下降1.17bp，月末 利差水平为46.32bp。 统计数据显示，债券二级市场6月总成交金额378,537.89亿元，同比、环比分别增长4.39%和12.78%。 按类型划分，利率债方面，6月成交金额229,219.09亿元，同比、环比分别增加2.19%和10.94%。信用债方面，6月成 交金额77,343.19亿元，同比、环比分别增加10.20%和18.42%。 从成交信用债的特征来看，产业债成交信用等级向AA+级及以上集中，城投债成交信用等级分布则保持均匀。在久 期方面，产业债成交久期延续向中长期延伸的趋势，城投债久期拉长趋势更为明显。具体到不同级别，产业债中AA 级别债券成交久 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Report's Core View - Credit bonds return to strength, with yields of 3Y and above varieties generally declining by around 5BP. Interest rates of interest rate bonds fluctuate and decline, and credit spreads mostly decline except for some high-grade short-duration varieties [2][5]. - Credit spreads of urban investment bonds decline across the board, with spreads of each variety decreasing by about 4BP [2][9]. - Most credit spreads of industrial bonds decline, while those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds slightly increase [2][18]. - Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds decline across the board, and their overall performance is stronger than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][23]. - Excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds are generally stable, while those of 3Y urban investment perpetual bonds decline [2][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit bonds return to strength, with yields of 3Y and above varieties generally declining by around 5BP - Interest rate bond yields fluctuate and decline. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y Guokai bonds decline by 3BP, 2BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, and the 10Y yield remains flat [2][5]. - Credit bond yields return to a downward trend. Yields of 3Y and above varieties generally decline by around 5BP, and credit spreads mostly decline except for some high-grade short-duration varieties [2][5]. - Rating spreads and term spreads mostly remain flat or decline [5]. 2. Credit spreads of urban investment bonds decline across the board - Credit spreads of external rating AAA, AA+, and AA platforms all decline by about 4BP. Spreads of most AAA-level platforms decline by 3 - 4BP, AA+ by 3 - 5BP, and AA by 3 - 6BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district-level platforms all decline by 4BP [2][16]. 3. Most credit spreads of industrial bonds decline, while those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds slightly increase - Credit spreads of central and local state-owned real estate bonds decline by 4BP, those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds increase by 2BP, and those of private real estate bonds increase by 13BP [2][18]. - Credit spreads of coal bonds at all levels decline by 3BP, those of AAA and AA+ steel bonds decline by 3BP and 4BP respectively, and those of chemical bonds at all levels decline by 4 - 5BP [2][18]. 4. Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds decline across the board, and their overall performance is stronger than that of ordinary credit bonds - Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds follow the decline of certificate of deposit rates. Spreads of medium and short-term high-grade varieties compress significantly [2][23]. - Specifically, the yield of 1Y AAA- secondary capital bonds declines by 9BP, and the spread compresses by 6BP. Yields of other grades decline by 8BP, and spreads compress by 4 - 5BP [23]. 5. Excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds are generally stable, while those of 3Y urban investment perpetual bonds decline - The excess spread of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds increases by 0.01BP to 3.82BP, and that of AAA5Y remains flat at 8.51BP [2][25]. - The excess spread of urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bonds declines by 2.38BP to 3.76BP, and that of AAA5Y increases by 0.10BP to 9.91BP [25]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market-wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and credit spreads of urban investment/industrial perpetual bonds are calculated based on ChinaBond medium and short-term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bonds data [27]. - Credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield of the same-term government bond from the medium-term valuation of the individual bond, and then the arithmetic average method is used to calculate the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment [31]. - Samples of medium-term notes and public corporate bonds are selected for industrial and urban investment bonds, and guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded [31].

Group 1 - The macro environment for credit bonds remains favorable in July 2025, with a focus on new supply and demand changes, particularly the expansion of credit bond ETFs [3] - Credit bond supply is not expected to improve significantly, but structural changes are emerging, with a notable increase in the issuance of technology innovation bonds [3] - The overall yield of various credit bonds is at a relatively low level since 2024, with credit spreads showing differentiation, particularly in the short and medium to long-term segments [3][26] Group 2 - The credit bond market is expected to experience a strong but volatile performance in July, supported by the recovery of wealth management scale and the expansion of ETFs, which may further improve demand for credit bonds [3] - A stable coupon strategy is recommended, with a focus on opportunities and risks arising from the expansion of credit bond ETFs [3] - The report suggests a 2-3 year short to medium-term strategy while actively exploring the value of medium to high-grade credit bonds in the 3-5 year range, particularly 4-5 year bonds [3] Group 3 - The characteristics of credit bond ETF constituent bonds include a predominance of high ratings (AA+ and above), with a higher proportion of central and state-owned enterprises [7] - Recent performance of constituent bonds has been strong, with increased liquidity and a relative decline in yields and credit spreads compared to non-constituent bonds [7] - Strategies for credit bond ETF expansion include early positioning in constituent bonds before listing and focusing on related non-constituent bond opportunities [7][5] Group 4 - In June 2025, the issuance and net financing of traditional credit bonds increased, with a total issuance of 1.304 trillion yuan and net financing of 252.7 billion yuan [13] - The net financing of urban investment bonds expanded further, while the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds also saw a significant increase [13] - The report highlights that the credit bond yield overall declined in June, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones [19][27]

Group 1 - The total scale of ETFs surpassed 4 trillion yuan, reaching 4.31 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 15.57% compared to the end of last year [1] - The largest growth in the first half of the year was seen in bond ETFs, which grew by 120.71% to 383.976 billion yuan [1] - A total of 29 bond ETFs reached a combined scale of 383.976 billion yuan, setting a new historical record [1] Group 2 - Bond ETFs had the highest net inflow in the first half of the year, totaling 175.784 billion yuan [1] - Notable bond ETFs with net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan include Hai Futong Short-term Bond ETF, Southern Shanghai Stock Company Bond ETF, and others [1] - The top bond ETF by scale is the Government Financial Bond ETF, which reached 52 billion yuan [5][7] Group 3 - There are 15 bond ETFs with a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, including various types such as policy financial bonds and corporate bonds [5] - The rapid growth of bond ETFs is attributed to factors such as increased market liquidity, lower costs, improved regulatory frameworks, and a shift in investor risk preferences [10] - The credit bond market is experiencing fluctuations in yield, with low-grade credit spreads compressing the most [11] Group 4 - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with potential for credit spreads to widen due to supply-demand mismatches [12][13] - Investment strategies should focus on short to medium-term high-grade credit bonds and consider opportunities in local government bonds [12]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in the first half of 2025, the market saw an increase in government bond yields, while credit bond yields fluctuated, leading to a compression of credit spreads, particularly in lower-rated bonds [2][8][11] - The overall strategy for credit bonds in the second half of 2025 suggests that yields may follow government bonds downward, but supply could increase while demand weakens, posing a risk of widening credit spreads [2][30][35] - The report recommends focusing on city investment bonds with weakening supply, followed by financial bonds, as potential investment opportunities [2][30][39] Group 2 - For city investment bonds, the report highlights opportunities for spread compression in high-quality regional bonds, supported by policies aimed at alleviating credit risks [3][43][54] - In the industrial bond sector, the report suggests monitoring the recovery of spreads following the resolution of risk events related to state-owned enterprise bonds, as well as opportunities arising from debt collection policies [3][58][63] - The financial bond segment is expected to see a decrease in supply pressure for perpetual bonds, particularly due to the consolidation of rural commercial banks, which may present structural opportunities [3][67][76] Group 3 - The report notes that the supply of credit bonds is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, with government bond net financing projected to be lower than the previous year, while industrial bonds may see a rise in supply [30][32][35] - Demand for credit bonds may weaken, leading to a potential widening of credit spreads, as the report anticipates a decrease in the attractiveness of bank deposits compared to bonds [33][35][36] - Historical data suggests that during periods of widening credit spreads, extending duration and focusing on lower-rated bonds have been effective strategies [36][37][39] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the city investment bond market is under strict regulatory scrutiny, particularly for lower-rated bonds, which may limit their issuance [54][57] - The industrial bond sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at supporting state-owned enterprises, particularly in real estate and construction [63][66] - The financial bond market is likely to experience a shift towards stronger credit profiles, especially in regions undergoing consolidation of rural commercial banks [72][76]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The report highlights the pressure on bank wealth management product yields due to the stock-bond seesaw effect and seasonal liquidity constraints, indicating a potential long-term decline in yields [4][17] - Regulatory changes are pushing for innovation in financial products to meet household wealth management needs, which is crucial for the banking wealth management sector [10][11] - The report notes that the valuation rectification of bank wealth management products is ongoing, with many institutions completing their mid-year plans by the end of June [11][12] Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On June 24, the People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to support consumption and promote financial products that meet household wealth management needs [3][10] - The valuation rectification of bank wealth management products is a significant focus, with many banks reporting progress in their mid-year plans [11] - As of the end of May, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 33.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.26 billion yuan from April [12] Yield Performance - For the week of June 23-29, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.42%, up by 1 basis point, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.32%, up by 2 basis points [4][14] - Most pure fixed income and fixed income+ products saw a decline in annualized yields, influenced by various factors including the stock-bond seesaw effect and geopolitical risks [16][17] Net Asset Value Tracking - The report indicates that the net asset value of bank wealth management products was 0.83%, up by 0.1 percentage points, remaining at a low level [25][26] - Credit spreads have narrowed, indicating limited value, and future trends in credit spreads will be closely monitored as they may impact the net asset value [25][27]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On June 24, the People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing the need for innovative financial products that meet household wealth management needs and enhance residents' property income [2][5] - As of May 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, managing a total net asset value of 33.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.26 billion yuan from April [6] Yield Performance - For the week of June 23-29, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.42%, up 1 basis point, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.32%, up 2 basis points [3][8] - The yield of pure fixed income and fixed income + products generally declined, influenced by factors such as the stock-bond seesaw effect and seasonal liquidity [9][10] Product Innovation and Market Trends - ICBC Wealth Management and China Post Wealth Management participated as cornerstone investors in the IPO of Sanhua Intelligent Control, each acquiring a stake of 20 million USD [7] - The ongoing valuation rectification in bank wealth management is expected to limit product yield potential, as companies shift focus towards low-volatility, high-liquidity assets [10][14]

Market Overview - As of June 30, the bond market showed slight weakness influenced by PMI data, cross-quarter funding, and stock market performance, continuing a narrow fluctuation pattern [1] - Overall, the yield on government bonds is expected to rise initially and then decline in the first half of 2025, with credit spreads mostly narrowing [1] - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with a decrease in funding prices compared to June, where the average decline of DR007 is about 10 basis points [1] Bond Issuance - By June 30, the total issuance of various bonds reached 27.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 24%, with government bonds accounting for 16.93 trillion yuan and credit bonds 10.35 trillion yuan [2] - In the first half of 2025, 98 government bonds were issued, a decrease of 8 from the previous year, with the issuance scale increasing by over 2 trillion yuan [4] - Local government bonds saw an increase in issuance, with 1,086 bonds issued, up 310 from the previous year, and the average issuance rate down by approximately 55 basis points [6] Trading Volume - The total trading volume of cash bonds in the market was 166.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%, with credit bonds accounting for 39.63 trillion yuan [16] - The trading volume of interest rate bonds also decreased, with a total of 124.29 trillion yuan traded, down 6.49% year-on-year [17] Yield Trends - The yield curve for government bonds showed an overall decline in the first half of 2025, with significant decreases in the medium to long end, such as a 55.89 basis point drop in the 10-year yield [19] - Local government bonds exhibited similar trends, with the 10-year yield down by 55.51 basis points [21] Institutional Insights - Institutions expect that the funding rates will remain loose in July, but the issuance of local special bonds may create some disturbances in the funding environment [29] - The basic economic trends are still favorable for the bond market, with internal demand needing improvement and external demand facing challenges [30]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 实操视角下的信用主体骑乘库优化 证券研究报告 信用策略周报 20250629 本周聚焦：跨季信用表现如何？7 月，信用博弈哪些结构性机会？ 一、信用，抹平凸点收益 经历前期持续上涨后，当周信用表现趋弱，收益率及利差多数走阔， 其中：截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，中短票收益率曲线上 3Y、5Y 凸性稍大， 对应期限收益率及信用利差当周明显压缩。 此外，城投债仍具备配置价值，尤其是中低等级下沉品种和 7 年期左 右超长品种，当前来看票息仍相对丰厚，二级"抢券"情绪仍在。 三、理财跨季扰动可控 近几年，理财资产配置结构上更加注重流动性的改善，季末回表对信 用债的扰动有所趋弱：随着持仓资产中存款、存单的比例提高，季末回表 直接减持债券或是赎回产品的压力便不那么直观。 从近期理财配置信用债的情况也能感受一二：6 月最后一周，理财二 级净买入普信债规模小幅下降，但仍继续增持二永债等品种。 四、7 月，信用控久期 站在当前节点往后看，有几个问题值得讨论： 第一，7 月跨季后，理财迎来规模增长，考虑到 5 月存款降息幅度较 大，6 月银行存在回表诉求反应还有所时滞，这整体对 7 月理财规模 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The logic of being bullish on credit bonds with a yield of over 2% remains unchanged this week. It is recommended to moderately lower the credit quality and extend the duration, especially focusing on medium- to long-term high-coupon urban investment bonds and bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with a yield of over 2% and good liquidity [2][43]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) was 153.6 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 110.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 427.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 150.7 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 273.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.8 billion yuan. The net financing of asset-backed securities was 8.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3 billion yuan [7]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 49.5 billion yuan, an increase of 32.5 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 48.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 97.3 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 55.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan [7]. - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance of urban investment bonds increased by 4, and the redemption decreased by 17; the issuance of industrial bonds decreased by 21, and the redemption remained unchanged; the issuance of financial bonds decreased by 6, and the redemption decreased by 16 [9]. 1.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance rates of AA industrial bonds, AA+ and AAA financial bonds increased significantly, while the issuance rate of AA+ industrial bonds decreased. The issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings changed by no more than 4BP [15]. - Specifically, the issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased by 63BP, mainly due to the high issuance costs and large issuance scales of bonds such as "25 Chouzhou Commercial Bank Tier 2 Capital Bond 01" and "25 Chengde Bank Perpetual Bond 01". The issuance rate of AAA financial bonds increased by 20BP, mainly due to the 30 billion yuan issuance of "25 Minsheng Bank Perpetual Bond 01" with an issuance rate of 2.3%. The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 18BP, mainly due to the high issuance rates of bonds such as "25 Jingjiang Beichen MTN003" and "25 Zhongtou 01". The issuance rate of AA+ industrial bonds decreased by 15BP, mainly due to the large number of bonds issued with a coupon rate below 2.3% [15]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) decreased by 129.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 293.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 432.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.3 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 511.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 90.5 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset-backed securities was 26.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7 billion yuan [16]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds decreased overall, while the turnover rate of asset-backed securities increased. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.89%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 2.49%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.54%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points. The turnover rate of asset-backed securities was 0.75%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [17]. 2.2 Yield - The yield of credit bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with the long - end performing better than the medium - and short - ends. Specifically, the yields of AA+, AAA - and AAA bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased by 2BP, 3BP and 1BP respectively compared to last week. The yields of AA+, AAA - bonds with a maturity of 3 - 5 years and AA+ bonds with a maturity of 5 - 7 years decreased by less than 1BP. The yields of credit bonds with other ratings and maturities increased by 0 - 4BP [21]. - By product type, taking the AA+ 5 - year bonds of each product as an example, the yields of different products showed mixed trends. Among industrial bonds, the yields of privately - issued industrial bonds and extendible industrial bonds decreased by 4BP and increased by 1BP respectively compared to last week. Among urban investment bonds, the yield of AA+ 5 - year urban investment bonds increased by 1BP. Among financial bonds, the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds decreased by 1BP and increased by 1BP respectively. Among asset - backed securities, the yield of AA+ 5 - year asset - backed securities increased by less than 1BP [22]. 2.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spreads of most industries fluctuated slightly this week, and the credit spread of the AA+ electronics industry contracted significantly. Specifically, the credit spread of the AA real estate industry widened by 14BP; the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and electrical equipment industries contracted by 62BP and 9BP respectively, and the credit spread of the steel industry widened by 12BP; the credit spread of the AAA electrical equipment industry contracted by 9BP. The fluctuations of credit spreads of bonds in other industries and ratings were no more than 5BP [23]. 2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 5 years widened slightly, while those over 5 years compressed slightly. Specifically, the credit spread of 0.5 - 1 - year urban investment bonds was 43BP, an increase of 2BP; the credit spread of 1 - 3 - year urban investment bonds was 44BP, an increase of 2BP; the credit spread of 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds was 63BP, an increase of 1BP; the credit spread of 5 - 10 - year urban investment bonds was 53BP, a decrease of 1BP; the credit spread of over 10 - year urban investment bonds was 43BP, a decrease of 4BP [27]. - By region, the credit spreads of AA urban investment bonds in Shanxi and AAA urban investment bonds in Jilin widened significantly, while the credit spread of AA urban investment bonds in Liaoning compressed by 6BP. The fluctuations in other regions were relatively small [28]. 2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed mixed trends this week, and the 5 - year industrial bonds performed well overall. Specifically, the credit spreads of 5 - year AAA -, AA+ and AA privately - issued industrial bonds compressed by 1BP, 4BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spreads of 5 - year AAA - and AA extendible industrial bonds compressed by 2BP and 3BP respectively. The credit spreads of industrial bonds with other maturities and different subject ratings mostly widened compared to last week, with a fluctuation range of 0 - 3BP [31]. 2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds mostly widened slightly this week. By product and maturity, for bank Tier 2 capital bonds, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 1 year widened by 3BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 10 years widened by 2BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively. For bank perpetual bonds, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 1 year widened by 3BP, 3BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 10 years widened by 2BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively [35]. 3. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - Due to the concentrated disclosure of bond follow - up rating reports near the end of June, there were many credit negative events this week. - Convertible bond negative sentiment: 16 issuers had their ratings downgraded, and the ratings of 16 convertible bonds they issued were also downgraded; 2 issuers were put on the watch list, and the 2 convertible bonds they issued were also put on the watch list [38]. - Other credit negatives: 3 issuers had their ratings downgraded, 37 bond issues had their ratings downgraded, and 10 bond issues had their implied ratings downgraded. Guizhou Shuicheng Economic Development Zone High - tech Development Investment Co., Ltd. was put on the issuer watch list, and its "18 Shuicheng High - tech Bond" was put on the bond watch list [40]. 4. Investment Suggestion - The central bank achieved a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan this week, and DR001 decreased from 1.35% at the beginning of the week to 1.29%. - Overall, the credit spreads of most industries fluctuated slightly, the credit spread of the AA+ electronics industry contracted significantly. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 5 years widened slightly, while those over 5 years compressed slightly. The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed mixed trends, and the 5 - year industrial bonds performed well. The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds mostly widened slightly. The yields of credit bonds fluctuated slightly, with the long - end performing better than the medium - and short - ends. - It is recommended to continue to focus on bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks such as Minsheng Bank, Bohai Bank and Hengfeng Bank, and urban investment bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shaanxi and Tianjin, such as Yunnan Construction Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., Xianyang Urban Development Group Co., Ltd. and Tianjin Bohai State - owned Assets Management Co., Ltd., which have relatively high static coupon rates [43].