原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/30 金十数据1月30日讯，伊朗总统府29日发表声明说，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬当天表示，如果美国寻求谈判与真正的外交， 就必须停止挑衅和制造紧张的行动。佩泽希齐扬当天下午分别与卡塔尔埃米尔塔米姆、巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹通电话，就 美国破坏稳定的行动所引发地区紧张局势交换意见。他在通话中感谢卡塔尔和巴基斯坦给予支持，并表示希望伊斯兰国 家之间的团结合作进一步加强和深化。 ·特朗普宣布国家紧急状态 并对向古巴输油的国家加征关税 美国白宫：特朗普签署行政命令，宣布进入国家紧急状态，并建立一项程序，对向古巴出售或以其他方式提供石油的国 家的商品征收关税。 ·委内瑞拉证实委美将重启商业航班 金十数据1月30日讯，委内瑞拉总统府29日发布消息，证实委内瑞拉同美国将恢复商业航空往来。消息说，委美之间的 商业航空空域将"立即重启"，这是委内瑞拉代总统罗德里格斯和美国总统特朗普通话的结果。当天早些时候，特朗普在 内阁会议上说，他已指示美国交通部长达菲和包括军方在内的所有相关人员在"29日结束前"开放委内瑞拉空域，以便美 国公民很快能够前往该国。美国航空公司方面随后说，计划在政府批准和安 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping over $400 before recovering nearly half of the loss, with a maximum intraday drop of 5.7% [1][17] - The spot gold price approached $5600 but fell to $5105.83 before rebounding to around $5317, reflecting a 1.8% decrease at the time of reporting [1] - The volatility in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after recent highs, with gold up 6.5% for the week and 23% for the month [17] Group 2: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The rise in precious metals is supported by dual factors: escalating geopolitical risks increasing global risk aversion and a deepening trend of "de-dollarization" raising doubts about the dollar's credibility [4] - Industrial metals and oil sectors are also gaining momentum due to a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand from green technology [4] Group 3: Silver Market Movements - Silver prices fell from a historical high of $121.67 to $106.80, with a maximum intraday drop of 8.5%, before recovering to around $114, reflecting a 2.3% decrease [6] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Reactions - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some expressing frustration over recent losses in gold investments, highlighting the emotional impact of market fluctuations [5][13] - The demand for gold remains strong, with significant interest from both cryptocurrency companies and central banks, indicating a sustained appetite for gold as a safe-haven asset [17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-30 弱美元+地缘风险升温，铂钯震荡偏强 据同花顺数据，截⾄2026年1⽉26⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价714.1 元/克，涨幅1.94%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为526.6元/克，涨幅 2.95%。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变化； 主产区供应扰动 铂观点：地缘风险升温叠加美元走弱，铂金震荡偏强 主要逻辑：据新华社1月29日消息，美国总统特朗普"正考虑对伊朗发动 新的重大打击"，中东局势紧张加剧。此外日元走强对美元汇率构成下行 压力，这对铂价形成一定支撑。短期铂价或延续震荡偏强走势，可关注择 机低吸做多机会。然而新任美联储新任主席提名、美国对铂钯关税预期同 样是近期影响市场的关键因素，短期不确定性仍存，需警惕价格波动加大 风险，建议投资者做好仓位控制。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+ ...

Group 1 - The core driving force behind the recent surge in gold prices is the escalation of geopolitical risks and macroeconomic policy expectations, particularly the ongoing US-Iran conflict which has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Gold prices have seen a remarkable increase, with a rise of over $500 in just four days, marking a 10% increase from just below $5000 to above $5600 [2][3] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have reacted positively to the booming precious metals market, with multiple gold-related stocks experiencing significant gains, including China Gold and Sichuan Gold, which have seen consecutive trading limits [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates in the 3.5-3.75% range has further fueled the gold bull market, with indications that there may be a potential for rate cuts if inflation trends downward [3] - Various exchanges and banks are implementing risk control measures in response to the rising volatility in the precious metals market, including adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits for silver and other precious metals [5][6] - Major banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have raised the entry thresholds for retail gold accounts and personal accumulation gold products, reflecting a cautious approach to managing investment risks [6]

市场对特朗普可能准备对伊朗发动打击的猜测，正点燃油价涨势。美国基准原油 期货价格飙升5.2%， 至66.48美元，为去年8月以来的最高盘中水平。当前油价较年初已上涨约15%。Rystad Energy地缘政治 分析主管豪尔赫·莱昂指出，近期油价的跳涨幅度，已超过去年伊朗与美国、以色列爆发12天冲突前的 价格上涨速度。这表明市场对近期军事行动及相关供应风险的预期概率，即使未比之前更高，也已达到 了相似水平。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating upward, and closing sharply higher on Thursday. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Thursday. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating upward, and rising sharply on Thursday. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium has rebounded, and short - term oil prices will maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.45 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.03%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.95% [8]. - In the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [8]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, with a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - In the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 83,300 tons [10]. - In the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 25.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was 84.70%, a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [10]. - In the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 111,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 255,600 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory was 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,100 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 63 [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 278,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 515,000 barrels [12]. - The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 20,664 contracts and an increase of 20,021 contracts from the December average, an increase of 34.07%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 12,405 contracts and an increase of 100,312 contracts from the December average, an increase of 95.12% [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 16,250 yuan/ton | +300 yuan/ton | 16,690 yuan/ton | +330 yuan/ton | - 440 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,325 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | 2,352 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | - 27 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 441.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 472.5 yuan/barrel | +12.2 yuan/barrel | - 31.6 yuan/barrel | - 12.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - spread, inventory, and net position changes [15][21][40]

美联储在会议 声明 中 将经济活动描述 ， 从 "温和扩张"上调至"稳健扩张"，指出失业率出现企稳迹象，但就业增长仍 较 低迷，通胀偏高。 美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议后的讲话中表示， 加息并非下一步行动的基本假设 。 这 排除 了 加息 的 可能 ， 缓解 了 市场 的相关 担忧。 鲍威尔还指出， 若关税导致的商品通胀（占当前通胀主因）触顶回落，将考虑放松政策。 这说明美联储的 降息条件锚定通胀 。 他没有 明确降息时点 ， 称 未来政策将 "逐次会议决策"，取决于就业、通胀数据演变。 鲍威尔还 强调美联储需远离政治干预，维护决策公信力。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 美联储在1月2 9日的议息会议上决定维持基准利率不变，美联储主席鲍威 尔表示，加息并非下一步行动的基本假设， 若关税导致的商品通胀（占 当前通胀主因）触顶回落，将考虑放松政策。 相对鸽派的言论，叠加地 缘风险与宽松预期，推动金价银价再创新高。 北京时间 1月29日凌晨，美联储在结束了为期两天的议息会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率维持在3.50%～3.75%不变，这符合市场的普遍预期，也是美联储自 2025年9月起连续三次降息后首次暂停行动。 美联储决议 ...

期货公司观点 美元贬值对现在的美国很有好处，因为美国正对外打关税战，美元贬值能抵消加征关税带来的出口成本 上涨，帮美国企业抢国际市场。这也方便美国玩弄贸易威胁的组合拳，一会儿要对加拿大、韩国加征关 税，一会儿拿格陵兰岛问题讹诈欧洲，在这种情况下，政策朝令夕改让全球投资者心慌，纷纷撤离美元 资产，转头买黄金、欧元避险。 所以，美元跌得越狠，美国的的政治经济筹码就越多，妥妥的用美元贬值换自己的政治利益，把全球市 场当棋子耍。 广发期货： 美元贬值了，很多人以为是资本选择了黄金，抛弃了美元，真相其实是美国政府故意打压美元。 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰动，综合来看短期消息面影响减弱行情维持偏强震荡但波动回落，黄金在 20 日均线上方多单继续持 有，可卖出虚值看跌期权可赚取时间价值 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with Shanghai aluminum futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a high of 25,840.00 yuan/ton and a rise of 3.08% [1] - The current trend for Shanghai aluminum is characterized by a strong upward movement, driven by geopolitical risks and increased market sentiment towards safe-haven assets, leading to a substantial increase in trading volume [2] - Concerns over potential disruptions in aluminum production in the Middle East due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to the bullish sentiment in the aluminum market, with a noted increase in prices driven by both events and capital [2] Group 2 - Domestic aluminum production capacity remains high, with operating rates above 96%, while some overseas producers face shutdowns due to power constraints, highlighting a rigid global supply situation [2] - Demand for aluminum is being supported by high growth in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and infrastructure projects, which is further enhanced by the rising copper-aluminum price ratio [2] - The market is currently in a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities, with short-term price pressures anticipated due to inventory accumulation ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting a cautious outlook [2]

现在的黄金根本不看技术，不看经验， 只看"勇气"。有没有敢于上车的勇气。 回头看看以前的上涨都是小弟，转眼金价5600美元了，每一天都像坐火箭一样。 1月美联储没有降息，维持原有利率不变，这不是重点，重点是市场已经完全忽视了任何利空，只要调整就是为了更大幅度的上涨。 鲍威尔刚讲完特朗普马上浇一盆冷水，一切的规则在特朗普眼里都会阻挡美国再次伟大，他从来不被规则所束缚。 2026年5月鲍威尔任期结束，货币政策的方向极有可能偏向特朗普支撑的大幅度降息，市场已经开始为接下来更大幅度的降息做准备。 地缘风险，贸易冲突，货币政策集中引发了对法币不信任，市场已经不再听任何故事，黄金和白银市场空头几乎死绝了，包括机构在内，没有几个敢和市 场叫板。 过去的经验是你的英雄，成就过你，当下的行情就会毁了你，以前数波浪，找指标共振，都已经全部失效，极强单边牛市行情往往会重新定价历史。 说一下今天黄金行情： 一夜之间金价加速上涨至5600美元，今年一个月时间涨了1200美元，上一次单边持续1000多美金还是去年8-10月，用了近2个月的时间。 现在上涨的速度越来越快，时间被压缩，没有所谓的压力，更没有预知的高点，形态只有走出来才确认高 ...