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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250626
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 01:04
| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 7450.00 | 7500.00 | -0.67% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 7450.00 | 7450.00 | 0.00% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 游 | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 7450.00 | 7450.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 6785.00 | 6820.00 | -0.51% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 5935.00 | 5950.00 | -0.25% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | | 2025/6/25 | 元/吨 | 6060.00 | ...
【环球财经】美国上周石油库存降幅远超预期 国际油价25日震荡收涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 22:37
Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a rebound on June 25, driven by a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with WTI crude rising by $0.55 to $64.92 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by $0.54 to $67.68 per barrel [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of a 797,000-barrel decline [1][2] - Gasoline and distillate inventories also saw declines of 2.1 million barrels and 4.1 million barrels, respectively, both below the five-year average by approximately 3% [1] Group 2 - The average daily crude oil processing volume at U.S. refineries increased by 125,000 barrels to 17 million barrels, with an average utilization rate of 94.7%, up from 93.2% the previous week [1] - The average daily gasoline supply rose by 389,000 barrels to 9.688 million barrels, marking the highest level since December 2021, indicating a significant rebound in fuel demand due to summer travel [1] - The daily net crude oil imports increased by 531,000 barrels to 1.674 million barrels [1] Group 3 - The Cushing region's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 500,000 barrels to 22.2 million barrels, while the strategic petroleum reserve rose by 237,000 barrels to 40.2 million barrels [2] - U.S. daily crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels to 13.435 million barrels [2] - Analysts noted that the decline in inventories across major refined products could shift market focus back to U.S. supply and demand dynamics rather than Middle Eastern tensions [2] Group 4 - Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, supply-demand conditions remain high, indicating ongoing market sensitivity to geopolitical factors [2] - Analysts suggest that oil prices have returned to key levels prior to the outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel, with potential for a return to economic fundamentals if geopolitical risks diminish [2][3] - Short-term momentum for oil prices has weakened, with the possibility of continued low-level fluctuations before a significant rebound occurs [3]
策略日报:价波同涨,年内新高-20250625
Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market has seen a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through resistance levels and reaching a year-to-date high, supported by increased trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 188.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4][20]. - The bond market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, influenced by the performance of the stock market, which may continue to suppress bond market performance if it remains strong [4][16]. - The US stock market is anticipated to challenge new highs as speculative sentiment returns, with reduced risks from rising oil prices and US Treasury yields [5][27]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as military, securities, internet finance, and insurance have shown strong performance, while oil and gas, pesticides, and film sectors have lagged [20][21]. - The commodity market has seen a decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index by 0.5%, with energy sectors leading the downturn, while non-ferrous and ferrous metals recorded gains [6][35]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Developments - Domestic policies emphasize expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption to promote high-quality economic development, as highlighted by the Vice Premier's recent remarks [7][41]. - Internationally, the EU is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US, indicating ongoing trade tensions [7][42].
能源日报-20250625
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 10:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in a comparable rating style [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, and investors are advised to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of crude oil remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by Middle - East geopolitical risks. After the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, the risk premium will decline, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range [1] - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is deeper than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) [2] - In July, the planned asphalt production of refineries is 247 million tons. The supply may be compressed, but the terminal demand is expected to be boosted, and the BU crack spread continues to rise [2] - The international market of liquefied petroleum gas may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases, and the domestic market faces the pressure of falling gross profit after the increase in import costs [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Products Crude Oil - Overnight, international oil prices declined, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.93% during the day. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by geopolitical risks. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran will lead to a decline in risk premiums, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range. Investors can consider short - selling strategies at the upper boundary of the range [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of FU is deeper than that of LU. The demand for ship refueling and deep - processing is low, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread rebounds from a low level [2] Asphalt - In July, the planned production of refineries is 247 million tons. Some refineries' maintenance is postponed, and one refinery resumes production. The supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The BU crack spread continues to rise [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases. The domestic chemical demand increases, but there is pressure on gross profit after the increase in import costs. The supply pressure will drive the price down [3]
沥青策略:单边观望、逢低做多沥青09-12价差
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 09:47
【冠通研究】 沥青:低开震荡 制作日期:2025年6月25日 单边观望/逢低做多沥青09-12价差 期货方面: 今日沥青期货2509合约下跌1.89%至3574元/吨,5日均线下方,最低价在3537元/吨,最高价 3783元/吨,持仓量减少17999至251579手。 基差方面: 山东地区主流市场价下跌至3750元/吨,沥青09合约基差下跌至176元/吨,处于偏高水平。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【策略分析】 供应端,上周沥青开工率环比回落1.1个百分点至30.4%,较去年同期高了4.7个百分点,沥青开 工率转而回落,处于近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据,6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨,环 比增加6.5万吨,增幅为5.2%,同比增加37万吨,增幅为39.3%。上周沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现, 其中道路沥青开工环比下降3个百分点至22.6%,仍处于近年同期最低水平,受到资金制约。上周山 东地区个别炼厂复产,加之原油价格上涨带动交投气氛,出货量增加较多,全国出货量环比增加 5.99%至28.83万吨,处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续 ...
南华贵金属日报:地缘风险缓和,PK降息预期回暖-20250625
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 07:02
南华贵金属日报: 地缘风险缓和PK降息预期回暖 夏莹莹(投资咨询证号:Z0016569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月25日 【行情回顾】 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多,短线在地缘风险缓和以及贸易关税谈判未进入敏感期等环境下,预计整体仍高位震荡,关 注这些风险短期变化以及降息预期波动,我们仍将短线回调视为中长期做多机会。伦敦金关键支撑3300,伦 敦银关键支撑34.8-35区域。 贵金属期现价格表 | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE黄金主连 | 元/克 | 771.86 | -9.44 | -1.21% | | SGX黄金TD | 元/克 | 768.71 | -9.23 | -1.19% | | CME黄金主力 | 美元/盎司 | 3338.5 | -45.9 | -1.36% | | SHFE白银主连 | 元/千克 | 8739 | -31 | -0.35% | | SGX白银TD | 元/千克 | 8709 | -21 | -0.24% | | CME白银主力 | 美元/盎 ...
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250625
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 04:00
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Low inventory and high aluminum - water ratio provide support, but the off - season demand restricts the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend, macro - sentiment, and downstream start - up [4]. Summary According to Related Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and the shutdown is expected to affect a total production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward, and winter storage was lackluster this year, providing limited price support [3]. Aluminum - On June 20, the weekly arrival volume of domestic port bauxite was 4.2009 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly departure volume of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 3.0638 million tons, a decrease of 1.0108 million tons from the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is expected to gradually emerge in late June [3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it may affect the import of alumina and bauxite from the Middle East. However, few of China's imported bauxite passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and China's alumina exports to the Middle East are small, accounting for 13% of the total exports from January to May 2025 [3]. - In June, the overall off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry was strong, with the weekly start - up rate dropping 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% from the previous week. On June 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous Monday. The de - stocking rate weakened, but the low inventory still supported the market, while the spot premium gradually declined. The proportion of aluminum water remained high, and the market ingot production was still tight [3]. - Overseas macro - instability persists. Low inventory and the expectation of a high aluminum - water ratio support the aluminum price, but the inventory trend has been volatile. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on ore prices is gradually emerging, and the off - season demand pressure limits the upside space [4].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250625
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Current geopolitical risks have gradually been released, and oil prices have deviated significantly from macro and fundamental guidance. Oil prices have reached a reasonable range, and short positions can still be held, but it is not advisable to chase short positions [2]. - For methanol, after the geopolitical situation cools down and crude oil prices drop sharply, the market will gradually return to its own supply - demand fundamentals. The overall contradiction is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the geopolitical sentiment has cooled down, and the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose. There is no unilateral trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For rubber, it is not pessimistic about rubber prices in the medium term. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, short - term operations, and pay attention to the band operation opportunities of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate downward [13]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. - For PTA, the end of the supply - side maintenance season slows down inventory reduction, and the demand side is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction of ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - side allocation, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $2.22, a decline of 3.30%, to $65.01; Brent main crude oil futures fell $2.83, a decline of 4.01%, to $67.82; INE main crude oil futures fell 53.70 yuan, a decline of 9.35%, to 520.9 yuan [1]. - **Data**: At Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.06 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%; diesel inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 2.17 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 52.97%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 9.41 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.41 million barrels to 19.64 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.11% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 24, the 09 contract of methanol fell 125 yuan/ton to 2379 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of +261 [4]. - **Analysis**: After the geopolitical situation cools down and crude oil prices drop, the market will return to supply - demand fundamentals. The domestic supply remains high, and the demand may weaken in the future. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 24, the 09 contract of urea fell 13 yuan/ton to 1698 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +42 [6]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical sentiment has cooled down, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose. There is no unilateral trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly. As of June 19, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.46%, 4.24 percentage points higher than last week and 7.31 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.92%, 0.31 percentage points higher than last week and 0.81 percentage points lower than the same period last year [9][10]. - **Data**: As of June 15, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 tons, an increase of 0.26%. As of June 22, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 49.47 (+0.99) tons [10]. - **Analysis**: It is not pessimistic about rubber prices in the medium term. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, short - term operations, and pay attention to the band operation opportunities of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 52 yuan to 4844 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (-70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104 (-18) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 73 (0) yuan/ton [13]. - **Data**: The overall operating rate of PVC this week was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The factory inventory was 40.2 tons (+0.5), and the social inventory was 56.9 tons (-0.4) [13]. - **Analysis**: Under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate downward [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene both fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost of pure benzene decreased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation was repaired, and the operating rate continued to rise [15]. - **Data**: The inventory of benzene ethylene ports increased. The overall operating rate of the demand - side three S was weak, but the operating rate of PS rebounded [15]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the Middle East conflict, it is expected that the price of benzene ethylene will maintain a volatile trend [15]. Polyolefin Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell. The end of the Iran - Israel conflict led to a significant decline in crude oil prices, affecting the import volume of polyethylene from Iran to China [17]. - **Data**: In June, the new production capacity on the supply side was small, and the pressure on the supply side would be relieved. The inventory of traders decreased marginally. The demand - side agricultural film orders decreased marginally, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [17]. - **Analysis**: The price of polyethylene is expected to maintain a volatile trend [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell. The profit of Shandong refineries declined, and the operating rate continued to decline, resulting in a blocked return of propylene supply [18]. - **Data**: In June, there was a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons on the supply side, and the inventory of upstream production enterprises increased significantly. The demand - side operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected that the price of polypropylene will be bearish in June [18]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 366 yuan to 6760 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 40 dollars to 859 dollars [20]. - **Data**: The Chinese load of PX was 85.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the Asian load was 74.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons [20][21]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 4776 yuan, and the spot price in East China fell 160 yuan to 5100 yuan [22]. - **Data**: The operating rate of PTA was 79.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The social inventory on June 13 was 2.198 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,000 tons [22]. - **Analysis**: The end of the supply - side maintenance season slows down inventory reduction, and the demand side is under pressure. After the geopolitical situation eases, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 169 yuan/ton to 4332 yuan, and the spot price in East China fell 117 yuan to 4480 yuan [23]. - **Data**: The supply - side operating rate increased. The import arrival forecast was 62,000 tons, and the port inventory was 622,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [23]. - **Analysis**: The inventory reduction of ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - side allocation, but beware of the risk of ethane imports [23].
国投期货能源日报-20250624
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 12:16
| Millio | 国投期货 | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月24日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文文文 | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 一季度全球石油库存增加2%,二季度以来累增2.3%累库速度基本延续,其中原油库存累增2.4%、成品油库存累增2.2%。库存 表现符合平衡表宽松预期,三季度旺季累库幅度或有放缓,但在OPEC+增产周期及贸易战对需求的风险依然存在的背景下供大 于求的宽松形势难改。本轮反弹宏观面、供需面的支撑力度有限,溢价点集中在中东地缘风险,伊以停火协议的达成令单边价 格、内外盘价差、外盘柴油裂解等风险溢价面临 ...
橡胶甲醇原油:地缘风险降温,能化集体回落
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 11:19
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a slight decline. With the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production, it is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a significant decline. Due to the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East subsided, and the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. It is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, declining weakly, and a significant decline. With the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel and the subsiding of geopolitical risk in the Middle East, the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. Under the suppression of bearish sentiment, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures will maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [9]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year significant decline of 7.56 percentage points [9]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [9]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [10]. - In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year slight increase of about 1% [10]. Methanol - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 293,600 tons [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [11]. - As of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures margin was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week significant decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 596 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 72,600 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week ending June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 59,900 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 49. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 300,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [13]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [14]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a trend of stabilizing in a volatile manner, and the bullish force in the market has increased. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [15] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 13,665 yuan/ton | - 285 yuan/ton | 185 yuan/ton | +335 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,665 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan/ton | 2,379 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | 286 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 531.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 518.6 yuan/barrel | - 55.9 yuan/barrel | +12.8 yuan/barrel | +55.5 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts including crude oil basis, crude oil futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]