瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 沪铜市场周报 供给小增需求放缓，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡略强，周线涨跌幅为+0.89%，振幅1.9%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价78140元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储正在考虑调整货币政策指导框架的核心内容，他指出，美国可能进 入供应冲击更频繁、通胀更不稳定的时期，长期利率可能会走高。国内方面，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国 务院总理李强在会上强调，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远， 努力实现高质量发展。基本面上，原料端铜进口TC现货指数不断下行，全球铜精矿供应偏紧趋势不变。国内铜矿港口库存 保持增长，国内冶炼厂短期内未受原料供给问题影响产量。供给方面，由于国内原料供应仍较充足，加之铜 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 铝类市场周报 供稳需增内外分化，铝类或将小幅提振 关 注 我 们 获 目录 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 期现市场」 本周沪铝期价略走强 图1、沪铝与伦铝期价 图2、沪伦比值 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000 21000 22000 美 元 / 吨 元 / 吨 电解铝期货价格 期货收盘价(活跃合约) :铝 期货收盘价(电子盘):LME3个月铝（右） 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 沪伦比值 沪伦比值 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+2.78%，报20130元/吨。氧化铝冲高回落，周涨跌+2.23%，报2890元/吨。 行情展望：国际方面，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储正在考虑调整 ...

聚焦制约经济循环的关键问题和薄弱环节，在促进经济持续向好中夯实做强国内大循环的基础。 面对外部风险冲击加大，做强国内大循环成为关键之举。 5月15日，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强在会上强调，要把发展 的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动 我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 今年以来，高层多次强调做强国内大循环。多位专家对第一财经记者表示，当前国际环境复杂多变，稳定经济增 长需要更多地依靠内需市场来发力。打通消费、投资以及供需结构中的堵点和难点，畅通国民经济循环，已成为 激发内需市场活力、提升我国经济韧性的关键所在。 做强国内大循环 深挖消费潜力 他表示，结合现阶段我国发展实际，做强国内大循环重点要体现在四个方面。一是资源要素的高效配置，进一步 消除地方保护和市场分割，深化要素市场化配置改革，加快推进全国统一大市场建设。 二是科技创新和产业创新的深度融合，加强关键核心技术和前沿技术攻关，推进科技成果产业化应用，打造一批 新产业新赛道。 三是产业链供应链的自主完备，发挥各地优势加强专业化分工、地区间协作，持 ...

敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 16 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-16） | | | | 铁矿：关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，铁矿盘面大幅上涨。随着部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关键，贸 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将 | | | | | 迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，未来 90 天中美两国之间的贸易将 | | | | | 大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套，激进的投 | | | | | 资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors and products have different trends and investment strategies [12][13][14]. - For the Chinese stock market, Goldman Sachs has raised the 12 - month target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating and favoring domestic - oriented industries [10]. - In the futures market, different futures products have different investment strategies based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - environment [12][13][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic cycle stability [9]. - China's top - level design for urban renewal has been introduced, accelerating urban renewal actions [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips and re - emphasized the review of port transactions [9]. - In April, the growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue accelerated, and the construction industry also showed growth [9]. - Goldman Sachs raised the target points of the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, maintaining an "overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market [10]. - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the bank wealth - management market adjusted, and the market may face "asset shortage" pressure [10]. - The Fed Chairman is considering adjusting the monetary policy framework, and the US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation [10]. - The US and Iran are in nuclear - related negotiations, with Iran willing to promise not to produce nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief [11]. - US economic activity slowed down, inflation cooled, and the PPI, retail sales, and manufacturing output showed different trends [11]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable, while the number of continued claims increased [11]. 3.2 Futures Strategies 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to style drift. The Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve, and public - offering funds may adjust their portfolios [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Be cautious when steepening the yield curve due to tightened funds. Consider bearish operations in the bond market as the Q2 domestic economic fundamentals are expected to improve [13]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping to Europe - The focus is on whether the spot price will decline further and whether shipping companies will raise prices in June. The upward catalyst is emotional, while the downward pressure is fundamental [14]. 3.2.4 Cotton - Although the Sino - US tariff friction has eased, domestic cotton prices are still under pressure due to weak demand. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15][16]. 3.2.5 Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain supply - demand gaps. Global sugar supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, which may restrict sugar prices [17][18]. 3.2.6 Oils and Oilseeds - For palm oil, the supply - demand situation is weak. For soybean meal, with the increase in US soybean planting progress and domestic oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal prices are expected to be weak [20][21]. 3.2.7 Eggs - In the short term, the decline in egg prices may slow down, but in the medium term, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, so a bearish operation on egg futures is recommended [21][22]. 3.2.8 Apples - Consider a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in production areas [23]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Consider short - selling at high prices and focus on downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the main contract is increasing in positions and falling. A cautious and bearish operation is recommended [23][24]. 3.2.11 Crude Oil - The market is back to trading on weak fundamentals, and Trump's Middle - East visit may lead to increased supply. Oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - long term and fluctuate weakly in the short term [25]. 3.2.12 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil, with short - term rebounds stronger than crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as power generation demand in the Middle East and shipping weakness [26]. 3.2.13 Plastics - Be cautious about the callback risk of L and PP. Pay attention to the situation where spot prices do not follow up [27]. 3.2.14 Methanol - Be cautious about the callback risk. Although the market sentiment has improved, methanol's supply pressure is still large [28]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - In a weak fundamental and strong macro - environment, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [29]. 3.2.16 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash prices are stable in the short term but face a long - term oversupply situation. Glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand [31][32]. 3.2.17 Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil and approach 3400. Inventory data provides some support [32]. 3.2.18 Polyester Industry Chain - Consider short - term long - positions. Although cost decline is a major negative factor, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. 3.2.19 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - After the short - term impact of tariffs, LPG prices may rebound, but the space is limited [34][35]. 3.2.20 Pulp - The market is oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [36]. 3.2.21 Urea - There are differences in the market's view on urea exports. UR09 and UR01 contracts can be short - sold when prices rise [37]. 3.2.22 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and appropriate long - positions can be taken at low prices. Alumina prices may have limited rebound space, and short - positions can be considered after the spot stabilizes [38]. 3.2.23 Lithium Carbonate - The impact of tariffs on lithium carbonate is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate and rebound based on its own supply - demand fundamentals [40][41]. 3.2.24 Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the market may rebound due to trade negotiations, but in the medium term, it is expected to remain weak due to factors such as weak demand and supply pressure [42][43]. 3.2.25 Coking Coal and Coke - In the short term, prices fluctuate with macro - policies. In the long term, without large - scale production cuts or reduced imports, there is no condition for long - positions [44][45]. 3.2.26 Ferroalloys - Do not chase high prices. Consider long - term short - positions when prices rise [46].

早盘速递 2025/5/16 热点资讯 1、国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理李强在会上强调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略 立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努 力实现高质量发展。 2、我国城市更新顶层设计出台。中办、国办近日印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》，提出八方面主要任务，其中包 括：推进城镇老旧小区整治改造，开展完整社区建设，推进老旧街区、老旧厂区、城中村等更新改造，加强城市基础设施建设改 造等。这意味着中国大力实施城市更新按下"加速键"。 3、美国总统特朗普表示，伊朗已经同意有关核问题协议的部分条件，他将敦促伊朗在不获得核武器的情况下达成协议。美国正 在与伊朗进行认真的谈判，以实现长期和平。伊朗最高领袖高级顾问沙姆哈尼表示，伊朗愿承诺永远不制造核武器，以换取解除 经济制裁。 4、国际能源署（IEA）发布月报称，受经济下行和创纪录的电动车销量影响，预计今年剩余时间全球石油需求增速将放缓至65万 桶/日，低于一季度99万桶/日的增速。而由于原油价格下跌，该机构连续第二个月下调美国页岩油产量的预 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the government emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and the consumer market shows steady growth, indicating a stable economic foundation. Overseas, the global economic recovery is uneven, with the US economy strong but facing inflation, and Europe struggling with energy and supply - chain issues. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast [1]. - For key varieties: - Crude oil prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance in the oil market [2][14]. - Shipping, especially the container shipping European line, has seen price rebounds due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions, with different trends for different contracts [3][35]. - Gold prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations, tariff wars, and Fed policies, currently in a correction phase [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News - **International News**: The Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework. The US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation, and long - term interest rates may rise. The predicted April PCE in the US will increase by about 2.2% year - on - year [6]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle to hedge against international uncertainties and promote high - quality development [1][7]. - **Industry News**: The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth will slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and has lowered the US shale oil production forecast [2][8]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.60%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.38%, the US dollar index fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.87%, London gold rose 1.98%, London silver rose 1.33%, and various other commodities had different price changes [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Short - term positive factors such as policy support and tariff negotiation results are beneficial to the stock market. The valuation of major domestic indices is low, and stock index futures are expected to be bullish, while stock index options can use the wide - straddle buying strategy [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell with potential short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Short - term bullish, with changes in domestic device operation rates and inventory levels [15]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as production area conditions and tariff policies [16]. - **Polyolefins**: After a phased rebound, they may oscillate at high levels, affected by macro factors and crude oil prices [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The market is reacting positively to the Sino - US financial talks. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash supply is relatively abundant, with both facing inventory digestion challenges [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a correction phase, affected by geopolitical and tariff factors, and the Fed's wait - and - see attitude [4][5]. - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as processing fees, demand, and tariff negotiations [21]. - **Zinc**: Prices may also fluctuate widely, with expectations of improved supply and influenced by tariff negotiations [22]. - **Aluminum**: May be oscillating strongly due to the better - than - expected result of tariff negotiations, despite weakening short - term demand [23][24]. - **Nickel**: Prices may be oscillating strongly, with a mix of positive and negative factors in the market [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are weak, with a supply - demand imbalance. Without large - scale production cuts, the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The black - metal sector is recovering due to macro - level positives, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face downward pressure [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term support exists due to iron - water production and demand, but it may be weakly volatile in the later stage due to expected supply increases [28]. - **Steel**: The market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports stable but a potential seasonal decline in demand [29][30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are falling due to factors such as the weakening of US biodiesel speculation, high palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia, and falling crude oil prices [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are rising due to positive factors, but domestic supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The market is in a short - term oscillation. Supply is expected to be tight in July, but high prices may affect downstream acceptance. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [33]. - **Cotton**: Spot prices are rising with improved macro sentiment. Supply is stable, and the market is bullish in the short - term due to tariff negotiations [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Line**: Prices have rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions. The 06 contract's volatility is expected to be limited, while the 08 contract may remain strong [3][35].

| | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 时日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 即日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 间日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1498.5 | 01805T | -9.5 | JM2601 | 0.668 | 911.0 | -12.0 | J01基差 | -9.5 | -19.0 | BE | | J2505 | 1520.0 | 1587.5 | -67.5 | JM2505 | 0.058 | 850.5 | -0.5 | 105基差 | -31.0 | -98.5 | 67.5 | | 12508 | 1472.0 | 1485.0 | -10.0 | 8055WIE | 0.688 | 894.5 | -11.5 | 109重要 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 100 | | J09-J01 | -26.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the Fibonacci retracement, horizontal lines, and moving averages, the report anticipates the following trends for major futures contracts on May 16, 2025: stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures will likely experience wide - range fluctuations; gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, PTA, and styrene futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias; rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, methanol, soybean meal, and PVC futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias; crude oil futures will fluctuate and consolidate; and container shipping index (European line) futures will likely fluctuate with a slight upward bias [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China's economic policies include promoting domestic circulation, urban renewal, and technological finance. Tax data shows accelerated enterprise sales growth in April, with a 4.3% year - on - year increase in national enterprise sales revenue and a 6.5% increase in construction industry sales revenue. The "Swap Connect" product types are to be enriched [7][8]. - Internationally, the Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework, and Powell predicts a 2.2% year - on - year increase in US PCE in April. The US and Iran are negotiating a nuclear deal. The EU is revising its trade agreement proposal with the US. The UK's Q1 GDP grew by 0.7% quarter - on - quarter [9][11][12]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On May 15, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.74% and COMEX silver futures up 1.07%. International oil prices dropped significantly, with US crude oil down 2.31% and Brent crude down 2.22%. London base metals closed mixed [12][13]. - The IEA expects global oil demand growth to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year and has lowered its forecast for US shale oil production for the second consecutive month [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On May 15, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then declined. A - shares weakened, with a total trading volume of 1.19 trillion yuan. High - frequency data shows that Goldman Sachs has raised its 12 - month target prices for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index [14][15][16]. - It is expected that in May 2025, major stock index futures contracts will likely fluctuate with an upward bias in a wide range. On May 16, they will fluctuate and consolidate [18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On May 15, the 10 - year treasury bond futures contract T2506 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and the 30 - year contract TL2506 also opened slightly higher and rose. The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.191 trillion yuan [39][44]. - It is expected that on May 16, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts will likely experience wide - range fluctuations [41][46]. Precious Metal Futures - On May 15, gold and silver futures contracts AU2508 and AG2508 opened lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then declined. International precious metal futures generally rose on the same day [46][51]. - It is expected that in May 2025, gold futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias in a wide range, and silver futures will likely fluctuate in a wide range. On May 16, both will likely fluctuate with an upward bias [48][49][51]. Base Metal Futures - On May 15, copper, aluminum, and alumina futures contracts opened slightly lower or higher, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed different trends. It is expected that in May 2025, these futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias, and on May 16, they will also likely fluctuate with an upward bias [58][62][68]. Building Materials and Energy Futures - On May 15, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and PVC futures contracts generally opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed downward - biased fluctuations. Crude oil futures contracts opened slightly lower and declined significantly [74][79][94]. - It is expected that in May 2025, rebar, iron ore, and crude oil futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias in a wide range. On May 16, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and PVC futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias, and crude oil futures will fluctuate and consolidate [74][80][94]. Chemical Futures - On May 15, PTA, styrene, and methanol futures contracts opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed different trends. It is expected that on May 16, PTA and styrene futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias, and methanol futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias [100][105][108]. Agricultural Futures - On May 15, the soybean meal futures contract opened slightly lower, rebounded slightly, and then showed a slight upward trend. It is expected that on May 16, it will likely fluctuate with a downward bias [110]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures - On May 15, the container shipping index (European line) futures contract EC2508 opened with a large gap up, fluctuated upward significantly, and then showed a strong upward trend. It is expected that on May 16, it will likely fluctuate with a slight upward bias [112].

国内市场综述 弱势整理 缩量回调 周四（5 月 15 日）大盘弱势整理，缩量回调。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3380.82 点，下跌 0.68%；深成指 收于 10186.45 点，下跌 1.62%；科创 50 下跌 1.26%； 创业板指下跌 1.92%，万得全 A 成交额共 11904 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 27 个行业收跌，其 中综合金融、计算机及通信跌幅居前，仅有煤炭、农 林牧渔、电力及公用事业小幅收涨。概念方面，动物 保健精选、医美及乳业等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，思科涨近 5% 周四（5 月 15 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道 指涨 0.65%，标普 500 指数涨 0.41%，纳指跌 0.18%。 思科涨近 5%，可口可乐涨超 3%，领涨道指。万得美国 科技七巨头指数跌 0.86%，亚马逊、脸书跌超 2%。中 概股普遍下跌，老虎证券跌超 8%，阿里巴巴跌逾 7%。 新闻精要 1. 李强在做强国内大循环工作推进会上强调：把做强 国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举 2. 最高法、证监会联合发布《关于严格公正执法司法 服 ...