展望未来走势，市场将重点关注两大核心维度：其一，欧元区通胀数据(尤其是核心通胀与薪资数据)及 经济复苏进程，这些指标将直接左右欧洲央行的政策调整节奏；其二，美联储的货币政策动向及美国经 济运行状况，其对美元走势的影响将间接作用于欧元兑美元汇率。机构提示，投资者需密切关注欧、美 两大央行官员的公开表态及核心经济数据发布，同时留意欧元区各成员国经济发展不均衡的风险，在把 握上行趋势的同时，做好相应的风险对冲安排。 2025年12月25日，欧元兑美元呈现强势震荡态势，当日汇率报收1.1780，小幅上扬0.0170%，盘中波动 区间为1.1772-1.1782。从近期走势观察，该货币对自12月初起便开启上行通道，12月24日盘中触及 1.1807的高位，距离年内峰值仅一步之遥，目前已成功站稳1.1780关键点位。截至当前，欧元兑美元本 年度累计涨幅已接近14%，在主要非美货币中表现突出。欧元之所以表现强势，核心原因在于欧洲央行 坚持利率稳定的审慎态度，再加上美元指数持续走弱带来的外部利好，短期上行趋势清晰可见。 美元指数的持续疲软为欧元兑美元的上涨提供了重要的外部支撑。作为美元指数中权重最高的货币(占 比达57.6% ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded six consecutive days of gains, with a closing value of 3940.95 points, up 0.53% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13486.42 points, up 0.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.77% to 3229.58 points [4] - The total market turnover was approximately 1.9 trillion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous trading day [5] Economic Data - The U.S. GDP for Q3 showed an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding market expectations of 3.3% and marking the fastest growth in two years [3][8] - Consumer spending was a significant driver of this growth, accelerating to 3.5% in the same quarter [8] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9%, indicating persistent inflation [8] Energy Sector - In November, China's total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [2][7] - From January to November, total electricity consumption accumulated to 9460.2 billion kWh, with a growth rate of 5.2% [2][7] - The second industry saw a stable growth in electricity consumption of 4.4%, while the high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors grew by 6.7% [2][7] Automotive Industry - Beijing issued the first L3-level highway autonomous driving vehicle license plates, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of autonomous vehicles in China [2][8] - The three licensed vehicles can achieve 80 km/h autonomous driving on designated highway sections, although a driver must be ready to take control [3][8] Stock Performance - Among the sectors, defense and military, electronics, and building materials showed the highest gains, with increases of 2.88%, 2.12%, and 1.72% respectively [4][9] - Conversely, agriculture, coal, and food and beverage sectors experienced declines of 0.85%, 0.70%, and 0.36% respectively [4][9] Financing Trends - The margin trading balance reported at 25,315.63 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day [10]

金融研究 2025年12月24日 星期三 现券：目前活跃合约为 2603 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250017.IB，收益率变动-1bps，对应净 基差-0.072，IRR1.72%；5年期国债期货CTD券为2500801.IB，收益率变动-1.5bps，对应净基差-0.134， IRR1.99%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250018.IB，收益率变动-2.3bps，对应净基差-0.127，IRR1.96%； 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 23 日，A 股四大股指继续反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.07%，报收 3919.98 点；深 成指上涨 0.27%，报收 13368.99 点；创业板指上涨 0.41%，报收 3205.01 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.36%， 报收 1340.02 点。市场成交 19,214 亿元，较前日增加 392 亿元。行业板块方面，电力设备(+1.12%)， 建筑材料(+0.88%)，电子(+0.58%)涨幅居前；社会服务(-2.07%)，美容护理(-1.65%)，商贸零售(-1.6%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>I ...

在就业方面，今年的月度非农就业人数增幅较去年大幅下降，且这一趋势在第四季度仍在持续。经济学 家认为，这既与特朗普政府加强移民管控导致移民减少有关，也与劳动力需求趋软有关。上周公布的数 据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，而10月则减少了10.5万人。 白宫经济顾问凯文.哈塞特表示，周二公布的美国经济增长数据强于预期，这是美国总统特朗普的贸易 政策以及对人工智能(AI)投资的成果，并预示着未来就业增长将加快。 哈塞特在接受采访时表示："这确实是一个极好的数字，是美国人民的一份很棒的圣诞礼物。""经济复 苏确实在起飞，而且有非常多的人正从观望状态进入劳动力市场……如果我们进入新年时能保持在4% 的GDP增长范围内，我们将看到(月度非农就业人数增幅)回到10万至15万的区间。" 数据显示，2025年第三季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算增长4.3%，高于第二季度3.8%的增 速和市场预期的3.3%。美国商务部表示，第三季度经济增速加快主要由于消费支出增长提速，以及出 口和政府支出增加。当季占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费支出增长3.5%，政府消费支出和投资增幅为 2.2%，出口增长8.8%。与此同时 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - 67% of multinational companies express confidence in their growth prospects in China over the next three to five years[8] - 64% of respondents have a positive outlook on China's economic growth compared to only 42% for the global economy[12] - 52% of multinational companies expect revenue growth in 2025, while 25% anticipate potential negative growth[18] Group 2: Investment Plans - 75% of multinational companies plan to maintain or increase their investments in China by 2025[40] - 94% of respondents are committed to investing in the Chinese market despite short-term economic pressures[40] - The primary reasons for additional investment include maintaining competitiveness (64%) and increasing production capacity (36%)[40] Group 3: Business Operations - 61% of multinational companies have shifted their focus from growth to profitability in the past three years[45] - 49% of companies are enhancing operational efficiency to improve profitability[51] - 83% of multinational companies have localized some aspects of their operations in China[65] Group 4: Workforce Adjustments - 45% of multinational companies have actively reduced their workforce in China to enhance efficiency[51] - Among those reducing staff, 60% have laid off 1% to 10% of their employees[54] - 29% of multinational companies reported a decrease in foreign employees in China from 2024 to 2025[58] Group 5: Digitalization and Cybersecurity - Over 90% of multinational companies plan to invest in digitalization, focusing on data analytics (52%) and IT infrastructure upgrades (46%)[89] - 58% of multinational companies are using artificial intelligence tools in their operations in China[93] - Key challenges include compliance with cybersecurity laws and ensuring IT infrastructure meets both international and Chinese standards[89]

Core Viewpoint - The Deutsche Bundesbank forecasts a gradual recovery of the German economy by 2026 after years of economic stagnation, driven by increased government spending and a rebound in exports starting in the second quarter of 2026 [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Bundesbank predicts that Germany's GDP will grow by 0.6% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.1% in 2028, after seasonal adjustments [2] - The bank emphasizes that expansionary fiscal policies will boost the economy in the short term but have limited effects on long-term productive capacity, necessitating structural reforms [2] Fiscal Policy and Debt - Increased spending on defense and infrastructure is expected to raise the deficit and debt levels, with the fiscal deficit rate projected to reach 4.8% by 2028 [2] - The Bundesbank reiterates the need to improve the debt brake mechanism and gradually reduce the deficit starting in 2030, along with decreasing defense-related debt [2]

Market Liquidity Review - In November, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a moderately accommodative monetary policy to maintain liquidity and support credit growth, with a total of 10 trillion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations and 15 trillion yuan in reverse repos conducted during the month [2][3] - The overall liquidity in November was tight but balanced, influenced by short-term factors such as tax payments and increased government bond supply, yet the PBOC's actions helped stabilize liquidity [9] Bond Market Review Overall Situation - The bond market indices showed a mixed performance in November, with government bonds under pressure due to liquidity concerns and weakened expectations for short-term easing, while credit bonds performed relatively better [10] Government and Policy Bonds - The yields on government bonds increased across various maturities, with the 1-year to 10-year yields rising by 2 to 6 basis points, reflecting reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [12][14] Short-term Notes - The yields on short-term notes generally increased, influenced by liquidity pressures and credit risk events in the real estate sector [17] Credit Bonds - The average yield for AAA-rated corporate bonds rose by 5 basis points to 1.95%, while AA+ rated bonds increased by 2 basis points to 2.01%, indicating a slight tightening of credit spreads [21] Equity Market Review - In November, major stock indices experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.67% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.95%, reflecting a market correction after earlier gains [26][27] - The market showed significant sector performance divergence, with defensive sectors performing better compared to growth sectors, which faced profit-taking [28][36] - The valuation of major indices generally declined, with the ChiNext index experiencing a notable drop in valuation [33] Asset Allocation Recommendations Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market is expected to remain stable, with the PBOC's accommodative stance likely to support liquidity, while the economic recovery process needs further consolidation [44][45] Equity Market - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its structural trends, with potential for recovery in defensive sectors and technology growth stocks, depending on policy signals and liquidity improvements [46][70] Fund Issuance Trends - In November, the number of newly issued funds increased to 136, reflecting a recovery in issuance driven by the end of holiday effects and interest in defensive sectors [47][48] - The net asset value of funds decreased by 236 billion yuan month-on-month, with stock funds showing a year-on-year increase despite a decline in recent months [48] Fund Performance - Most fund types experienced declines in November, with commodity funds performing relatively well due to rising gold prices, while equity funds faced significant losses amid market corrections [54][65]

在通胀方面，剔除生鲜食品后的消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅近期维持在约3%。日本央行强调，随 着工资上涨持续向销售价格传导，基础性CPI通胀继续呈现"温和上升态势"。央行判断，"工资与价格同 步温和上涨的机制将得以维持"，并认为在2025年10月《经济活动与物价展望》预测期后半段，基础性 CPI通胀率"大体与2%的价格稳定目标相一致"的基准情景可能性正在上升。 新华财经北京12月19日电 12月19日，日本央行结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将政策利率由0.5% 上调至0.75%，加息幅度为25个基点。此举使日本政策利率达到30年来的最高水平。根据会议声明，该 决定获得政策委员会全体委员一致通过。 与此同时，日本央行对货币市场操作指引作出相应调整。央行明确表示，将引导无担保隔夜拆借利率维 持在约0.75%的水平，并同步修订相关利率工具： 补充性存款便利适用利率设定为0.75%，适用于金融机构在日本央行往来账户余额中扣除法定准备金后 的部分；基本贷款利率（补充性贷款便利项下）设定为1.0%。 在经济评估方面，日本央行指出，当前日本经济整体呈现"温和复苏态势"，但局部仍存在疲弱。劳动力 市场持续偏紧，企业利润总 ...

金融研究 2025年12月19日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 18 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.16%，报收 3876.37 点；深 成指下跌 1.29%，报收 13053.97 点；创业板指下跌 2.17%，报收 3107.06 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.46%， 报收 1305.97 点。市场成交 16,768 亿元，较前日减少 1,576 亿元。行业板块方面，银行(+1.97%)， 煤炭(+1.89%)，石油石化(+1.25%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-2.22%)，通信(-1.58%)，电子(-1.51%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IM>IC>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,843/199/2,413。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-113、-179、1、290 亿元，分别变动-160、-64、+147、+77 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 59.4、31.04、21.59 与 9.32 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-10.21%、-5.46%、-5.93%与-3.88%，三年期历 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the Bank of England's interest rate decision, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to weak economic indicators [1] - The UK economy shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, which supports the expectation of monetary easing [1] - The recent PMI data provided short-term support for the pound, but most institutions believe it will not alter the rate cut trajectory [1] Group 2 - The UK autumn budget introduced a £22 billion fiscal buffer, which helped reduce short positions on the pound and pushed the exchange rate above 1.335 [2] - The tightening policies in the budget may constrain economic growth, and the inflation rate remains significantly above the Bank of England's target [2] - There is a divergence in institutional forecasts for the pound, with some predicting a slight decline due to economic pressures and rate cuts, while others see potential for a short-term rebound if rate cuts are less than expected [2] Group 3 - The exchange rate is currently balanced, with short-term fluctuations expected between 1.3350 and 1.3380, with key support at 1.3350 and resistance at 1.3400 [2] - The long-term outlook for the pound depends on the divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US, as well as the recovery of the UK economy and fiscal conditions [2] - Global capital flows and other variables are also important factors to consider in the pound's valuation [2]