Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the trade conflict between China and the U.S. is a long-term battle rather than a single event, and understanding the economic dynamics of both countries is crucial for strategic planning [1][2][4] - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing the underlying factors that influence long-term economic growth in both the U.S. and China, rather than focusing solely on short-term fluctuations [4][5] - It critiques the "manic-depressive" analysis of the U.S. economy, which oscillates between exaggerated optimism and pessimism, suggesting that such views misrepresent the actual economic conditions [3][5][6] Group 2 - The U.S. financial markets have shown volatility since the announcement of tariffs, but these fluctuations are within the normal economic cycle range, indicating no immediate crisis [34] - The article discusses the performance of the U.S. stock market, noting that significant declines have occurred but are less severe than in previous economic downturns, suggesting stability in the long-term outlook [19][24][27] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a notable drop following the tariff announcement but rebounded after strategic concessions from the Trump administration, reflecting the complex interplay between policy decisions and market reactions [28][33]

日本超长期国债收益率波动主要受市场流动性和交易因素影响，而非基 本面变化。保险资金减少购买加剧了市场流动性问题，导致收益率大幅 波动。 日本央行的大规模量化宽松政策（QE 和 QQE）扭曲了超长端市场的流 动性和定价机制，使得超长端收益率对外部条件变化更为敏感。 美国科技周期可能接近尾声，导致全球资本市场波动率提高，美国资产 面临更多不确定性和波动风险，影响全球金融资产。 中美关税博弈通过影响全球进出口量和美元流动性，加大了金融市场波 动，关税政策成为决定全球金融风险偏好的关键因素之一。 疫后主流国家财政范式转变，从扩张转向谨慎，导致资本流向调整，加 剧了全球金融市场的不稳定性，与科技周期、中美贸易博弈共同作用。 日本央行通过量化宽松（QE）和量化紧缩（QT）操作对日债收益率曲 线产生显著影响，早期 QT 可能因持有大规模日债而对中长端市场造成 更大冲击。 全球财政及主权债务供应增加带来外溢风险，特别是美国、德国、日本 等国的财政刺激政策可能传染到其他发达经济体，增加日本国债收益率 上行压力。 中信建投宏观 日债大跌怎么看？20250523 摘要 Q&A 近期日本国债超长端收益率上行的原因是什么？ 近期日本国 ...

美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 本周多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；成本支撑，大跌概率小，总体震荡，区间950-1150美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、南美大豆收割接近完成，现货抛压较大 | | 2、市场对中美缓和以及未来干旱预期较高，现实可能落空 | | 3、价格如果再进一步上涨至1080美分/蒲式耳以上可能引发美国农民抛售 | | 4、可能对欧盟加税50%，可能引发欧盟反制，影响美豆出口。 | | 利多因素 | | 1、中美关税战缓和预期较强，市场期待中国需求的回归 | | 2、市场对ENSO中性状态下美国大豆产区天气干旱的担忧较强 | | 3、玉米播种速度快，限制了大豆面积的增加空间 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of US-China tariff policies has led to an increase in inventory accumulation by US buyers, resulting in heightened shipping activity on routes to the US, particularly through Shenzhen's Yantian Port, which handles over 25% of China's exports to the US [1][19]. Group 1: Shipping and Logistics Operations - Yantian Port is experiencing a surge in shipping activity, with companies urgently deploying additional vessels to accommodate increased cargo volumes [1][3]. - The peak shipping season has shifted from the traditional July-September timeframe to June and July this year, prompting logistics companies to optimize operations and increase resource allocation [3][5]. - The volume of goods waiting to be shipped has increased by over 60%, with the number of containers rising from around 120 to over 200 [5]. Group 2: Warehouse and Cargo Management - Warehouses are implementing emergency plans to enhance turnover efficiency, operating 24/7 to manage the increased shipping demand [7][12]. - The shipping volume from a cross-border e-commerce warehouse has surged from 40-50 containers daily to a peak of 70, with a 30% improvement in turnover efficiency [12][14]. - Companies have adapted their warehouse designs and operations to better handle the characteristics of e-commerce, such as small batch and multiple shipments [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing - The increase in shipping demand has led to rising freight rates on US routes, with some shipping companies announcing rate hikes of up to $3,000 for 40-foot containers [15]. - The logistics industry is observing a shift in shipping patterns, with some capacity being redirected to European and Latin American routes, which may affect the timing of shipments to the US [17]. - Many US merchants are utilizing a 90-day window to stock up on inventory, significantly increasing shipping demand and contributing to rising freight rates [19].

Core Insights - The domestic steel price index in China experienced a slight increase during the week of May 12 to May 16, with both long and flat steel price indices rising [1][6] - The overall China Steel Price Index (CSPI) reached 93.45 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.04% [1][6] Price Index Summary - The long steel price index stood at 95.67 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.73% [1] - The flat steel price index was at 91.60 points, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.68% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.90% [1] Regional Price Trends - All six major regions in China saw an increase in steel price indices, with the Central South region experiencing the highest growth [2] - The North China region's steel price index was 92.64 points, up 0.29% week-on-week, while the Northeast region had the smallest increase at 0.02% [2] Price Variation by Steel Type - Among eight major steel varieties, prices varied, with the price of 6mm high-line steel increasing by 0.68% to 3403 CNY/ton [3] - The price of 1mm cold-rolled sheet decreased by 2.42% to 3950 CNY/ton, while the price of 1mm galvanized sheet remained unchanged [3] Cost Factors - The average import price of iron ore in April was 98.10 USD/ton, down 0.41% month-on-month and down 13.28% year-on-year [4] - Domestic iron concentrate prices were 889 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.22% from the previous month [4] International Market Overview - The CRU international steel price index rose by 0.7% in April, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [5] - The North American steel price index increased by 1.7% month-on-month, while the Asian steel price index decreased by 0.8% [5] Market Outlook - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has stimulated some terminal demand, contributing to a slight rise in steel prices [6] - The domestic steel market is expected to experience a strong fluctuation in the short term due to various incremental policy measures [6]

1、习近平对精神文明建设工作作出重要指示强调 推动精神文明建设高质量发展 为强国建设民族复兴提 供强大精神力量 蔡奇出席全国精神文明建设表彰大会并讲话； 2、央视快评：为强国建设民族复兴提供强大精神力量； 3、习近平同德国总理通电话； 4、习近平向罗马尼亚当选总统达恩致贺电； 5、李强主持召开国务院常务会议； 6、韩正会见土库曼斯坦议长； 7、"两新"政策效应显现 有效激发内需潜力； 8、【在希望的田野上·三夏时节】各地抢抓夏收夏种 夯实粮食丰收基础； 9、国务院新闻办举行"新征程上的奋斗者"中外记者见面会； 10、"外媒看中国"首场采访活动走进渝鄂； 11、财政部下达14亿元农业防灾救灾资金； 12、今年1到4月我国消费品品种新增809.8万种； 13、2025年"特岗计划"招聘工作启动； 14、全国妇联等11部门部署开展2025年"六一"庆祝活动； 15、《国家网络身份认证公共服务管理办法》今日公布； 16、中老铁路货物运输量突破6000万吨； 17、乙巳年世界华人炎帝故里寻根节在湖北随州举行； 18、2025上合组织国家媒体合作论坛在新疆举行； 19、联合国贸发会称美关税政策无视世贸规则 冲击脆弱经济体 ...

Group 1 - Tokyo stock market rebounded on the 23rd, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 174.60 points to close at 37160.47, an increase of 0.47% [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange stock price index increased by 18.43 points, closing at 2735.52, reflecting a rise of 0.68% [1] - The rise was influenced by the overnight increase in the Nasdaq index, particularly in high-tech stocks, and a slight depreciation of the yen, which boosted expectations for improved performance from export-related companies [1] Group 2 - Over 80% of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with other products rising by 3.62% and non-ferrous metals increasing by nearly 3% [1] - However, six sectors, including mining, securities and commodity futures trading, and electric and gas industries, experienced slight declines [1] - Despite improvements in Japanese corporate sentiment and a better PMI report from the US, the Tokyo stock market has struggled to maintain trading enthusiasm, with the 200-day moving average acting as a resistance level [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | OPEC+7 月或继续增产 41 万桶/日，油价走弱。OPEC+持续增产，原油远月压力较大； | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 夏季原油消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升。 | | | | SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升，盘面受到压制；油价偏弱， | | | | 下游利润不佳，但对美关税下降后，进口成本下降，开工率有上升预期。PG【4110-4140】 | | L | 偏弱 | 成本支撑减弱，期现齐跌，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；抢出口可持续性不强，农膜 | | | | 季节性淡季，反弹偏空。L【7100-7200】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱，上中游库存去化，月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【6935-7050】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 上中游库存续降，基差走强；烧碱涨价，氯碱一体化利润修复，低估值支撑。5-6 月有多 | ...

豫地英才聚商都，智绘中原新胜景！ 5月22日下午，凯旺科技（301182.SZ）参加主题为"真诚沟通 传递价值"——河南辖区上市公司2025年 投资者网上集体接待日。 交流会中，问及未来如何应对机遇与挑战，凯旺科技董事会秘书兼职财务总监邵振康表示，公司所处的 行业挑战，主要来源于目前中美脱钩断链，中美关税博弈带来的市场不确定性，目前整体行业国内需求 疲弱，行业内卷，竞争压力增加，行业整理利润率下滑，同时人力成本、管理成本日益增加。 3、紧抓产品质量，优化生产管理再上新台阶 ； 4、人力资源发展计划 ； 5、夯实优势基础，优化全流程制造管理能力 。（全景网） 更多河南辖区上市公司2025年投资者网上集体接待日活动，请点击：https://rs.p5w.net/html/146808.shtml 未来公司会积极在如下方面合理应对： 1、稳定核心资源，开拓新市场新业务。公司将牢牢抓住安防市 场发展的契机，在现有业务领域的基础上，积极开拓新的应用领域，拓展公司的发展空间，坚持客户需 求为中心，加强市场拓展能力建设。公司持续加强和巩固现有客户合作，积极拓展国内与国际客户，深 化客户需求，延展业务链条。（1）深耕现有市场 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，新季美国大豆种植天气仍有变数和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千 点关口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震 荡回升，5月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格下跌，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位支撑盘面底部， 进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税战后续交互影响，短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2860（华东），基差-74，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.17万吨，上周10.12万吨，环比增加20.26%，去年同期62.31万吨， 同比减少80.47%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流出 ...