Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - PVC is expected to experience low - level, weak oscillations due to factors such as weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory. The price is likely to face pressure around 5200 yuan/ton [2]. - For caustic soda, the upward drive of the futures market is insufficient, but the downward movement is also cautious. Attention should be paid to factors like inventory and alumina production [3]. - Urea prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction. Although supply remains abundant, the smooth inventory reduction process drives up the average price [4][6]. - Methanol prices are expected to move within a range of 2500 - 2650 yuan/ton, with both domestic and port inventories decreasing, but the high price has limited downstream acceptance [7]. Summary by Product PVC - **Prices**: On April 1, the PVC main 05 - contract closed at 5099 yuan/ton (+20), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate market and export restrictions. Supply is under pressure with new investment plans and high - level caustic soda production. Currently, maintenance is limited, and export is stable through price cuts [2]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, with attention on new production, spring maintenance, downstream resumption, and policies [2]. Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On April 1, the caustic soda main SH05 - contract closed at 2515 yuan/ton (+3), and there were price adjustments in the Shandong market [3]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2025, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [3]. - **Outlook**: The upward drive is limited, but the downward movement is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and alumina production [3]. Urea - **Prices**: The main contract rose 3.27% to close at 1929 yuan/ton, with different spot prices in different regions [4]. - **Supply**: The national urea operating rate was 84.83%, and the daily output decreased slightly to 19.4 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and industrial demand was stable. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 210,000 tons, and the port inventory was basically unchanged [4][6]. - **Outlook**: Supply remains abundant, but inventory reduction supports price increases. Attention should be paid to factors such as equipment maintenance, compound fertilizer production, and export policies [6]. Methanol - **Prices**: The main contract fell 0.76% to close at 2486 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market decreased by 52 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 84.06%, and the weekly output was 1.8268 billion tons [7]. - **Demand**: The methanol - to - olefin operating rate decreased, and traditional demand did not improve significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: Both enterprise and port inventories decreased. The enterprise inventory was 236,200 tons, and the port inventory was 773,800 tons [7]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to move within a range, with attention on factors such as the macro - environment, equipment maintenance, and international crude oil prices [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, in the second quarter, a large amount of South American soybeans will arrive in China, suppressing the soybean meal market price. Rapeseed meal supply pressure has weakened due to a significant decline in rapeseed arrivals this year, and inventory pressure is not large. However, the tariff's marginal impact is weakening, and short - term supply is relatively abundant, causing the spot price to fall and dragging down the futures price. The far - month rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the uncertainty of future supply [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the supply situation in Canada has loosened, putting downward pressure on rapeseed prices. Domestically, the pressure on the rapeseed oil supply side has weakened in the first quarter, but inventory is rising, constraining the market price. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but long - term uncertainty. Recently, rapeseed oil has been oscillating strongly and can be participated in short - term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures closing price (active contract) of rapeseed oil decreased by 61 yuan/ton, and that of ICE rapeseed decreased by 2.2 Canadian dollars/ton. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed oil warehouse receipt decreased by 30 [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton, while the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 2520 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil remained unchanged, and the import cost of rapeseed increased by 31.64 yuan/ton to 4505.78 yuan/ton [2]. 替代品现货价格 - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9710 yuan/ton, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 90 yuan/ton to 1060 yuan/ton [2]. 上游情况 - The total monthly rapeseed import volume increased by 1.41 million tons to 33.31 million tons, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased by 5 million tons to 35 million tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed decreased by 3.46% to 21.06% [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 1 million tons to 21 million tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal increased by 21.55 million tons to 30.77 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in different regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly output of feed increased by 6.8 million tons to 2843.6 million tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil increased by 60.4 million tons to 527.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry decreased by 253 billion yuan to 5549 billion yuan [2]. 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal increased, and the historical volatility also increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil increased slightly, while the 20 - day historical volatility decreased [2]. 行业消息 - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) had mixed results on Monday. The Brazilian soybean harvest is about 80% complete, and the soil moisture in Argentine crop - growing areas has improved, putting pressure on international soybean prices. The USDA planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the United States in 2025 is 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the macro - economy in the second quarter is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2] - The situation is becoming more favorable for the bond market, which is expected to strengthen with fluctuations. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to drop to around 1.7%, and may decline further if the expectation of interest - rate cuts strengthens [25] - After the "tariff storm" settles in early April, A - shares are expected to rebound, Hong Kong stocks to consolidate, and U.S. stocks to recover [28] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q4 2024, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year growth of 5.4%, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter [1] - In March 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points [1][2][14] - In February 2025, social financing scale increment was 70546 billion yuan, M0 year - on - year growth was 9.7%, M1 was 0.1%, and M2 was 7.0% [1] - In February 2025, CPI year - on - year was - 0.7%, PPI was - 2.2%, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.1%, and social consumer goods retail sales cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.0% [1] - In February 2025, export value year - on - year was - 3.0%, and import value year - on - year was 1.5% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the macro - economy in Q2 is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures after the Qingming Festival [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted trading margins and price limits for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and glass futures from April 2 [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted intraday flat - today trading fees for tin futures contracts from April 1 night session [3] - Four insurance institutions have started gold trading, aiming for long - term and stable asset appreciation [3] - On March 31, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 23 had negative basis [3] - Trump may impose a 20% special tariff on all imports, causing the Asia - Pacific stock markets to slump [4] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% and lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, expecting three Fed rate cuts this year [4] 3.2.2 Metals - On March 31, spot gold and COMEX gold futures hit record highs [5] - On March 31, domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 74000 yuan/ton, hitting a more than 4 - month low [5] - As of March 31, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.15% to 933.38 tons [5] - As of March 28, zinc, aluminum, copper inventories hit new lows, while lead inventory increased, and nickel inventory decreased [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In March, China's steel industry PMI was 46%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month, but still in the contraction range. April's steel market demand is expected to pick up [6] - In March, the black - commodity sector declined, with coking coal futures hitting a new low since 2017 [6][7] - The U.S. proposed a new mineral agreement with Ukraine, and Trump warned Zelensky if Ukraine withdraws [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices continued to rise due to concerns about Russian and Iranian oil supplies [8] - Saudi Aramco kept its April LPG official selling prices stable, while Sonatrach lowered its prices by 2 - 7% [8] - In January 2025, U.S. crude oil production dropped to the lowest since February 2024, and oil product supply reached the highest since October 2024 [8] - U.S. LNG production, gasoline demand, and some export volumes decreased in January 2025, while crude oil export volume increased [9] - U.S. natural gas production in some regions decreased in January 2025, and total oil demand increased by 5.9% year - on - year [9][10] - Tokyo Gas will acquire a stake in a Texas shale from Chevron [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean inventory in Q1 was 1.91 billion bushels [12] - U.S. export inspection volumes for soybeans, wheat, and corn were 793250 tons, 435644 tons, and 1614406 tons respectively [12] - Arabica coffee futures prices rose about 18% in the first three months due to concerns about drought in Brazil [12] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 31, the central bank conducted 1667 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.5%, with a net investment of 317 billion yuan [13] - In March, the central bank conducted 8000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1000 billion yuan, and suspended Treasury bond trading for three consecutive months [13] 3.3.2 Key News - China's economic recovery signs are more obvious, and the Q2 macro - economy is expected to achieve "stable growth in quantity" and "rapid improvement in quality" [2][14][15] - China will take measures to reduce corporate burdens [15] - The Ministry of Finance announced the Q2 2025 Treasury bond issuance plan, including a 30 - year Treasury bond and a special Treasury bond for central financial institution capital injection [15] - The plan for issuing special Treasury bonds for state - owned banks' capital injection was released, with a total of 5000 billion yuan in 5 - year and 7 - year terms [16] - In Q1 2025, 1227 corporate bonds were issued on the exchange bond market, with a total issuance of 8705.19 billion yuan [16] - Guangzhou released its 2025 housing development plan, including planned pre - sale areas and land supply [16] - In March, Guangzhou's second - hand housing transactions increased significantly [17] - Nanjing and Gansu introduced real - estate and housing - provident - fund policies respectively [18] - From January to March, TOP100 real - estate developers' sales decreased year - on - year, but core cities' transactions are expected to recover [18] - The Bank of Japan will reduce its purchase of 10 - 25 - year Treasury bonds in Q2 [18] - Some companies had bond - related events, such as Shanghai Shimao's debt default and several bonds' full redemptions [19] - Moody's adjusted ratings for some companies and commented on the impact of U.S. tariffs on some countries [19] 3.3.3 Bond Market - At the end of the quarter, tight funds pressured short - term bonds, while long - term bonds performed relatively well [20] - Convertible bond indexes declined, with some bonds rising and others falling [20][21] - Most real - estate bonds on the exchange market declined, and some bond indexes showed different trends [21] - Money - market interest rates mostly rose, and Shibor short - end rates showed mixed trends [21][22] - Bank - to - bank and other repurchase rates had different changes, and some agricultural - development bank bonds were issued [22] - European and U.S. bond yields showed different trends [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, while the central parity rate was depreciated [24] - The U.S. dollar index rose, and most non - U.S. currencies fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes the market is in a wait - and - see period, and a defensive strategy should be adopted for convertible bonds [25] - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes the bond market will strengthen with fluctuations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may decline [25] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 1, 109 bonds were listed, 61 were issued, 55 were due for payment, and 186 had principal and interest payments [26][27] 3.4 Stock Market - On Monday, A - shares closed down, with the chemical, photovoltaic, and robot sectors leading the decline, while gold and bank stocks rose [28] - On Monday, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, but south - bound funds had net purchases [28] - The news of shortening A - share trading hours by 30 minutes is false [28] - The CSRC emphasized providing a better regulatory environment for overseas - listed enterprises [28] - As of the end of March, 120 A + H listed companies proposed dividend plans, with a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in dividends for 2024 [29] - Ping An Life increased its holdings in China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China H - shares [30] - Xiaomi completed a share placement, raising about 42.5 billion Hong Kong dollars [30] - Chen Hang will return to DingTalk as CEO [30]

数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 排产平稳运行，另有个别企业为控制成品库存增速存小幅减产行为，对整体企业产能利用率形成一定拖拽 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-03-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16905 | -190 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14625 | -135 | | | 沪胶5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -200 | 10 20号胶5-6价差(日,元/吨) | 45 | 20 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2280 | -55 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 138244 | -1022 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 86557 | -6090 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -36960 | -4244 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -4752 | -404 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 199330 | -10 | | | 20 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - On March 24, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4740 - 4820 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4430 - 4510 yuan/ton, North China market 4800 - 4850 yuan/ton, East China market 4950 - 5150 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 5120 - 5230 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4650 - 4880 yuan/ton, South China market 5000 - 5150 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of April 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated cargo in East China were propane at 618 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton) and butane at 608 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to RMB prices of propane at 4884 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) and butane at 4805 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton); in South China, propane was 614 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton) and butane was 604 US dollars/ton (up 1 US dollar/ton), equivalent to RMB prices of propane at 4852 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton) and butane at 4773 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton) [1] - The mainstream transaction price in the South China civil gas market yesterday was 5000 - 5150 yuan/ton, up from the previous working day. The small quantity of major refineries supported the price increase. The refinery in Beihai, Guangxi is about to undergo maintenance, with a small quantity and little sales pressure, and some low - priced products had more sales than production. The mainstream transaction price in the Pearl River Delta imported gas market was 5060 - 5120 yuan/ton. There were many arriving ships at the import terminals, the market supply was relatively abundant, and the low - price shipments were acceptable [1] - The PG futures price has rebounded continuously recently. After the cancellation of the March warehouse receipts, the upward resistance in the market will be reduced, but the fundamentals may lack continuous driving force [1] Group 2: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international coffee market is experiencing a significant price surge, with coffee bean prices increasing dramatically, surpassing even gold in percentage growth, leading to concerns about the affordability of coffee for consumers [2][6][8]. Price Surge in Coffee Beans - In 2024, coffee bean prices have risen sharply, with the price of Arabica coffee futures reaching $3.0995 per pound, marking a 70% increase for the year [6][8]. - The C-type coffee futures saw a nearly 90% increase, reaching a high of 429.95 cents per pound, the highest since 1972 [6][8]. Factors Influencing Coffee Prices - The primary driver of the price increase is extreme weather conditions affecting major coffee-producing regions, particularly droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, leading to a significant drop in coffee production [8][9]. - The International Coffee Organization predicts a supply gap of 8.5 million bags for 2025-2026 due to these production challenges, while global coffee market demand continues to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% [8][9]. Impact on Coffee Retail Prices - Coffee retail prices are rising, with examples from various brands showing significant price increases for popular coffee drinks [10][12]. - In China, the price of popular coffee drinks has been particularly sensitive, with many consumers accustomed to a price point around 9.9 yuan [10][12]. Cost Structure of Coffee - Despite the rising cost of coffee beans, they constitute a small portion of the overall cost of coffee drinks, with rent and labor being more significant factors [12][19]. - For instance, the cost of coffee beans accounts for less than 4% of the total cost of a cup of coffee at Luckin Coffee, while rent and labor costs are much higher [12][19]. Competitive Landscape - The coffee market is facing intense competition, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Starbucks adjusting their pricing strategies in response to rising costs and competitive pressures [20][21]. - The number of new coffee shop openings has decreased significantly, indicating a challenging environment for coffee retailers [20].

Core Viewpoint - The coffee bean market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, driven by a significant increase in prices due to supply constraints, particularly from Brazil, which has led to a surge in coffee futures prices to historical highs [1][4][14]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Coffee futures prices have risen dramatically, reaching a peak of 440 cents per pound, up over 62% from 270.72 cents per pound in November of the previous year [1]. - In Yunnan, the purchase price for coffee beans has soared to 64.5 yuan per kilogram, nearly doubling compared to the previous harvest season [2]. - The price of fresh coffee cherries has increased to 11 yuan per kilogram, compared to only 1.2-1.3 yuan six years ago, reflecting a broader trend of rising costs in the coffee supply chain [14]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The coffee processing trade is facing significant pressure, with farmers and processing plants raising prices while buyers are reluctant to increase their purchase prices, leading to a squeezed margin for traders [3][4]. - The market is characterized by a rapid turnover of transactions, with companies needing to adapt quickly to fluctuating prices, often resulting in losses on contracts due to rising costs [5][6][16]. - The domestic demand for coffee has outstripped supply, leading to a reduction in exports and a shift in focus towards local consumption, which has further exacerbated price increases [12][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - The coffee production cycle is affected by environmental factors, with a significant reduction in yield expected this year due to adverse weather conditions, potentially leading to a 30% decrease in output [14]. - The processing time for coffee beans has increased, with companies facing longer cash flow cycles due to the need for upfront payments and the rising costs of raw materials [19]. - The competition for sourcing coffee beans has intensified, with companies needing to actively seek out suppliers rather than relying on traditional procurement methods [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The rising prices of coffee beans are making it increasingly difficult for brands to maintain low-priced products, with estimates suggesting that a cup of coffee could cost around 1.7 yuan just for the coffee powder alone, not accounting for other costs [28]. - Companies are adjusting their procurement strategies, often reducing order sizes to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, which could lead to supply shortages in the future [23][29]. - The long-term sustainability of the coffee market may be at risk if supply begins to exceed demand in the coming years, potentially leading to a price collapse [29].