Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short term, due to weak terminal acceptance and seasonal decline in demand, coal and coke prices may face adjustments. However, in the medium to long term, policies restricting over - production and safety inspections will limit the supply elasticity of coking coal. Coupled with winter storage, the downward adjustment space of coking coal spot may be limited. Coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black commodity sector [2]. - The recommended trading ranges are 1100 - 1350 for coking coal and 1600 - 1850 for coke. Consider taking partial profits when the prices rebound to the upper end of the ranges [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Short - term situation**: Recent downstream restocking and reduced mine production have improved coking coal inventory. However, steel mills are in deeper losses, with more planned maintenance, leading to a decline in hot metal production and seasonal weakening of coal and coke demand. Spot valuations are considered too high, and restocking demand has peaked [2]. - **Long - term outlook**: Policies on over - production inspection and safety will limit coking coal supply elasticity. Winter storage is expected to support prices, and coal and coke can be long - positions in the black commodity sector [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread strategy**: Coking coal basis is high, and end - users with procurement plans can consider buying hedging on the futures market. Coke basis has strengthened, and no cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. - **Calendar - spread strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse spread for coking coal is suspended. It is recommended to wait and see due to unclear reverse - spread logic [8]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the coking profit on the futures market, with an entry range of 1.5 - 1.55 for the 01 coke/coking coal ratio [8]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory hedging**: Coke producers worried about price drops can short the J2601 contract, with different hedging ratios and entry ranges [11]. - **Procurement management**: Coking plants concerned about rising raw material prices can long the JM2605 contract, with different hedging ratios and entry ranges [11]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking coal supply**: Some mining indicators such as 523 mine coking coal production and 314 coal washery production have changed. Inventory has also changed, with an overall increase in total coking coal inventory [12]. - **Coke supply**: Coke production and inventory have changed, with a decrease in total coke inventory [12]. - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke, as well as related profit indicators, have shown different trends [13][14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive news**: CPI increased in October, coke prices were raised, and coking coal prices in some areas rose [17]. - **Negative news**: Scrap steel prices dropped, steel mill profitability declined, and steel consumption decreased [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor China's October M2 money supply growth rate, US October CPI, initial jobless claims, China's October retail sales, and industrial added - value [19]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The coking coal futures main contract failed to break through the resistance level and may enter a wide - range oscillation [19]. - **Capital flow**: Coking coal long - position holders took profits, and short - positions in coke increased, indicating a cautious market sentiment [21]. - **Calendar - spread structure**: The 1 - 5 positive spread for coking coal has strengthened, and it is recommended to wait and see for the reverse spread [26]. - **Base - spread structure**: Coking coal basis is high, suitable for buying hedging. Coke basis has strengthened, with neutral valuation [32]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Since July, upstream coking coal mines' profits have improved, while downstream coking and steel - making profits have deteriorated. Coke price increases have not significantly improved coking profits, and steel mills are reluctant to accept further price hikes [44]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Mongolian coal long - term contract trade profits have recovered, and customs clearance has increased. Seaborne coal import profits have improved, and coal shipments are expected to remain high [46][49]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply Side and Projections - Coking coal production growth in the fourth quarter is limited, with an estimated weekly production of 960 - 965 tons in November. Import supply is expected to remain high, with an estimated net import of 980 - 1000 tons in November [63]. - Coke production is expected to be 763 - 767 tons per week in November, and exports are linearly extrapolated [65]. 5.2 Demand Side and Projections - Due to shrinking steel mill profits, the estimated daily hot metal production in November is 230 - 232 tons [68]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show changes in production, imports, supply, and inventory over different weeks [70].

Group 1: Report Summary - This week, coking coal and coke showed relative resilience in the black steel industry chain, maintaining a sideways oscillation. The macro - level disturbances eased, and the market gradually returned to trading based on its own fundamentals. The strong performance of coking coal was mainly driven by the rising price of thermal coal, reduced inventory pressure on mining enterprises, limited supply increase, and the expectation of winter storage, which released price elasticity. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production restricted the upward space of coking coal prices. The short - term futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and intensity of downstream winter storage. As hot metal production gradually declined, coke consumption decreased, but production also dropped, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern. The third round of coke price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss of coke enterprises, but they are still in the loss range, and the fourth round of price hikes has been initiated. High furnace material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, limiting the profit space of coke enterprises. The subsequent price hike space of coke depends on the upward range of coking coal, and the futures market fluctuates with coking coal [6]. - As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 53.19%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 percentage points. Since November 10, 2025, China has suspended the 15% additional tariff on imported coking coal from the United States, and the import tariff has dropped to 13%. Thailand has launched an anti - circumvention investigation into hot - rolled steel plates from China [7]. - Domestic coking coal supply has slightly shrunk. Upstream coking coal inventory has slightly increased, but the pressure is not significant. Independent coke enterprises have slightly replenished coking coal, while steel mills have maintained just - in - time procurement. Coke production has slightly decreased. Hot metal production has declined, leading to lower coke consumption. The third round of price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss situation [7]. Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus - Bullish factors include low inventory pressure of coking coal, strong performance of thermal coal prices, and the expectation of industry winter storage. Bearish factors are the weakening profitability of steel mills, low willingness to replenish raw material inventory, and the decline in hot metal production due to environmental protection factors [10]. Group 3: Data Analysis - As of the week of November 7, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 83.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and the daily average output was 73.83 tons, a decrease of 2.01 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.61%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the daily average output was 27.53 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons. As of the week of November 1, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port rebounded but was slightly lower than the same period last year. Overall, the supply of coking coal has limited room for increase [13]. - As of the week of November 7, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 165.59 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 294.97 tons, an increase of 10.55 tons; and the port coking coal inventory was 304.27 tons, an increase of 14.12 tons. The downstream replenishment rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and the inventory depletion rate has decreased, resulting in a slight increase in weekly inventory, but the mine inventory pressure has been significantly reduced [15]. - As of November 7, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 1070.02 tons, an increase of 17.54 tons. The available inventory days were 12.65 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.57 tons. This week, the production and sales of independent coke enterprises were relatively balanced, inventory decreased, and the willingness to replenish coking coal remained, but the replenishment amplitude was narrower than before [18]. - As of November 7, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 787.3 tons, a decrease of 9.02 tons. The available inventory days were 12.84 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 626.64 tons, a decrease of 2.41 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 11.07 days, a decrease of 0.5 days. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has continuously declined, and the willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, mainly for just - in - time procurement [22]. - As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 72.31%, a decrease of 1.13% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.59 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared with the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 84.99%, a decrease of 0.22% compared with the previous period, and the daily average coke output was 46.09 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons compared with the previous period. As downstream consumption weakened, coke production also decreased, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern [24]. - As of the week of November 7, China's coke consumption was 105.4 tons, a decrease of 0.96 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average hot metal output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons. Recently, hot metal production has gradually declined, and coke consumption has also decreased, but it is still in a relatively high range [26]. - As of November 7, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was a loss of 22 yuan/ton. The third round of price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss. However, high raw material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability. As of November 7, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a further decrease of 5.19% compared with the previous period. The decline in steel mill profitability will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises, and steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, delaying the implementation of the next price hike or reducing the possibility of implementation, thus limiting the profit space of coke enterprises [28]. - The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke maintained a slightly bullish oscillating trend [30]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The strong performance of coking coal is mainly driven by the rising price of thermal coal, reduced inventory pressure on mining enterprises, limited supply increase, and the expectation of winter storage, which releases price elasticity. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production restricts the upward space of coking coal prices. The short - term futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and intensity of downstream winter storage [33]. - As hot metal production gradually declines, coke consumption decreases, but production also drops, resulting in a relatively balanced supply - demand pattern. The third round of coke price hikes has been implemented, slightly improving the loss of coke enterprises, but they are still in the loss range, and the fourth round of price hikes has been initiated. High furnace material prices have continuously reduced steel mill profitability, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist price hikes more strongly, limiting the profit space of coke enterprises. The subsequent price hike space of coke depends on the upward range of coking coal, and the futures market fluctuates with coking coal [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, with a continued downward trend in price, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic market sentiment. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [1][2]. - The price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, showing a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, inventory - consumption trends, and high - level pressure [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. 3.2 Aluminum - Macroscopically, US data shows a weak labor market, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The market is concerned about the impact of Trump's trade policy and the risks related to the long - term government shutdown [1]. - The alumina market has a continuous supply - demand relaxation pattern, with spot prices under pressure. Industry profitability has shrunk, and some high - cost enterprises face operational pressure. Environmental policies may restrict production during the heating season and carbon emission verification [2]. - Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have weak procurement willingness, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. Raw material inventory has accumulated to 3.202 million tons, and the total industry inventory has increased by 92,000 tons to a historical high of 4.599 million tons [2]. - The weekly starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 61.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The starting rates of aluminum cables, profiles, strips, and foils have all declined [2]. - On November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622,000 tons. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation increases, which may have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound consolidation, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [2][4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining news. The high inventory pressure in the domestic aluminum ingot market in November is expected to have a negative feedback effect on the subsequent aluminum price [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou regional short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have also scheduled shutdowns, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4]. - The finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new recent low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, with weak price support [4]. Aluminum Ingots - Macro data shows that the US private employment and non - manufacturing PMI in October were better than expected. The Shanghai aluminum price was high yesterday [3]. - The alumina market is in a state of loose supply and demand, with the spot price under pressure, and the industry's profit margin has shrunk significantly. Although the weekly output of alumina has decreased slightly, the overall operating capacity remains high, and environmental protection policies may bring new constraints to production [4]. - Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have weak procurement willingness, and the raw material inventory has continued to accumulate. The total industry inventory has reached a historical high of 4.599 million tons [4]. - The aluminum processing PMI in October fell below the boom - bust line, and the "Silver October" peak season was lackluster. The comprehensive PMI in November may decline further [4]. - As of November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622,000 tons, and the inventory pressure in November has increased [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market data is bearish, with inventory pressure mainly on off - balance - sheet materials. Attention should be paid to the off - balance - sheet material destocking of the Steel Union sample this week. - Recently, the decline in steel mill hot metal production has alleviated inventory pressure, mainly affecting off - balance - sheet material production cuts. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products in the Steel Union sample is higher than the output, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the plate inventory is relatively high year - on - year, and the winter storage pressure is higher than last year. It is expected that steel mills will actively cut production in winter. - The supply of iron elements in the January contract is in a loose pattern, and the recent decline in hot metal production suppresses iron ore prices. Unilateral trading of rebar and hot - rolled coils should focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils can be maintained. [2] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in global shipments last week but a significant increase in arrivals at 45 ports. The demand side is weak as steel mill profit margins have dropped significantly, hot metal production has fallen from its peak, and steel mills' restocking demand is weak. - The downstream demand for steel is gradually recovering, but there is still inventory pressure on plates. Port inventory is accumulating, and the inventory pressure is increasing. - The previous macro - positive factors have been digested. The decline in steel prices, hot metal production, and the increase in port inventory still suppress iron ore. The driving force for iron ore is weak. Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines for now, with a reference range of 760 - 810. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - The coke futures showed an oscillating and rebounding trend. The mainstream steel mills accepted the third round of coke price increases on November 4 and implemented them at 0:00 on the 5th, with a still - existing expectation of further increases. - The supply side is supported by the rebound in coking coal prices. After the coke price increase, losses are narrowing, and production starts are increasing. The demand side is affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, with a significant decline in steel mill hot metal production, weak steel prices, and low steel mill profits, which suppress coke price increases. - The overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level, with steel mills destocking and coking plants and ports accumulating inventory. The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view for the fourth quarter. Speculative trading can go long on coke 2601 at dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be adopted, but beware of large price fluctuations. [7] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed an oscillating and rebounding trend. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, and downstream restocking demand still exists, but traders are becoming cautious due to the rapid price increase. - The supply side is expected to improve as some停产 mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are resuming production, but the output recovery is limited. The import of Mongolian coal has decreased since October but rebounded this week, with tight port resources and strong Mongolian coal quotes. - The demand side is affected by production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, with a significant decline in hot metal production, a slight increase in coking plant production starts, and weakening steel mill restocking demand. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing at a medium level, with mines, ports, and coal - washing plants destocking and coking plants and coal - washing plants accumulating inventory. Unilateral trading can go long on coking coal 2601 at dips, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, paying attention to price fluctuations. [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. [2] Cost and Profit - The cost of billet and steel production decreased. The profit of various steel products also declined, such as the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and the profit of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 13 yuan/ton. [2] Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, with a growth rate of 1.5%. The production of the five major steel products increased by 10.0 to 875.3 tons, with a growth rate of 1.2%. Rebar production increased by 2.7%, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.3%. [2] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.6%. Rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 to 602.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 3.1%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.3 to 406.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.0%. [2] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.3%, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 916.4 tons, with a growth rate of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 6.2 to 232.2 tons, with a growth rate of 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.2 to 331.9 tons, with a growth rate of 1.6%. [2] Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of iron ore spot and futures decreased slightly. For example, the price of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.0, with a decline rate of - 2.4%. [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4 tons, with a growth rate of 58.6%. The global weekly shipment volume decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.2%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, with a growth rate of 10.6%. [4] Demand - The weekly average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5%. The weekly average 45 - port ore - clearing volume decreased by 16.2 to 320.2 tons, with a decline rate of - 4.8%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.4%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.0%. [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 to 14714.08 tons, with a growth rate of 1.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.5%. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke contracts increased. For example, the coke 01 contract increased by 16 to 1269 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.2%, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 24 to 1753 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The coking profit decreased by 11, and the sample coal mine profit increased by 39, with a growth rate of 7.9%. [7] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 851.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.4%. [7] Demand - The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5%. [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0 tons, with a growth rate of 0.9%. The coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.2 to 59.9 tons, with a growth rate of 2.1%, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory decreased by 4.1 to 629.1 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.6%. The coking coal inventory of the full - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5 tons, with a growth rate of 2.2%, and the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 13.4 to 796.3 tons, with a growth rate of 1.7%. [7] Supply - Demand Gap - The weekly coke supply - demand gap increased by 49.2% to - 3.6 tons. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, with the storage and new - energy sectors leading the gains. The domestic economic data in October is expected to face a decline in pressure, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [9]. - For the black industry, the medium - term (winter) view remains to be bearish on rallies. The coal - coke prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the prices of iron alloys are recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the demand for lithium carbonate continues to support the price, and the zinc price can be considered to be shorted on rallies. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to trade within a range [20][21][24]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton and sugar are under supply pressure, eggs may be strong in the short - term but the increase is limited, and the prices of other products such as corn, jujubes, and live pigs are affected by various factors and need attention [27][30][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, and the prices of various chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol are affected by factors such as supply and demand and cost, with different trends and trading suggestions [39][42][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including tariff adjustments and the relaxation of export controls on some US entities [6]. - The US Supreme Court is debating the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff measures, and the results may be announced in December. The US federal government's "shutdown" has broken the historical record, which may reduce the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter [6][8]. - The ADP employment and service industry PMI in the US in October were better than expected, which added uncertainty to the Fed's decision on whether to cut interest rates in December [8]. - Guizhou Moutai has launched a second - round share repurchase and announced a mid - year profit distribution plan. The scope of institutions participating in the stock repurchase and increase loan business is expected to expand [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened low and closed high, with the storage and new - energy sectors leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3969.25 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. The domestic economic data in October is expected to face a decline in pressure, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [9]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and loose, and the price is stable. The treasury bond futures opened high and closed low, showing a seesaw effect with the A - share market. The symbolic meaning of the central bank's bond - buying is more positive than the actual scale, and the monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the fourth quarter [11]. 3.4 Black Industry 3.4.1 Iron Ore and Steel - The spot prices of steel and iron ore fluctuated. The prices were affected by factors such as environmental protection restrictions and steel mill maintenance. In the medium - term, the winter market may show a pattern of first rising and then falling, and the steel price is expected to have limited rebound space. The medium - term view is to be bearish on rallies [12][13][14]. 3.4.2 Coal - Coke - The short - term iron - making volume has a downward space, and the coal - coke prices continue to fluctuate at a high level. In the short - term, the supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, but the weakening demand for steel during the off - season will restrict the price [15]. 3.4.3 Ferroalloys - Affected by the price increase of动力煤 and lump coal, the cost of ferrosilicon is expected to increase, but the black sector is weak, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium - term [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials 3.5.1 Zinc - The zinc price fluctuated. The import of refined zinc in China decreased in September. The downstream demand is cautious, and the price can be considered to be shorted on rallies [20]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - The demand for lithium carbonate continues to increase, and the supply increase is less than the demand increase. Although the expected resumption of production of the Jiaxiawo lithium mine affects the market sentiment, the strong demand in the short - term still supports the price [21]. 3.5.3 Industrial Silicon - The contradiction of industrial silicon is not prominent. It is affected by the macro - environment and coal prices. It is expected to trade within a range, and small - position long positions can be tried at the lower end of the range [24]. 3.5.4 Polysilicon - The spot trading of polysilicon is in a stalemate. The market is affected by policies and fundamentals, and it is expected to trade within a range [25]. 3.6 Agricultural Products 3.6.1 Cotton - The supply of cotton is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. 3.6.2 Sugar - The global sugar supply is in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is affected by factors such as import cost and domestic production cost. It is recommended to operate with a short - selling strategy or wait and see [30]. 3.6.3 Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong due to the expectation of "capacity reduction". The spot price may be strong in November, but the increase is limited. It is recommended to operate according to the range - trading idea [33]. 3.6.4 Apples - The acquisition of apples is in the middle - late stage, and the price is stable. The market is expected to be strong with fluctuations [35]. 3.6.5 Corn - The spot price of corn has rebounded to some extent, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. 3.6.6 Jujubes - The spot price of jujubes in the sales area is weak, which affects the new - jujube ordering price. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 3.6.7 Live Pigs - The supply pressure of live pigs continues, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [38]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry 3.7.1 Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, and the oil price is under pressure. The OPEC+ measure to delay the increase in production in the first quarter has limited impact, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [39]. 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price fluctuates with the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term trading focus is on the impact of sanctions on the supply [41]. 3.7.3 Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a bearish - on - rallies trading idea [42]. 3.7.4 Rubber - The raw material price in the Yunnan region of China has slightly decreased, and the price in Thailand is firm. The fundamental situation is still slightly weak, and it is recommended to hold short - call option strategies [43]. 3.7.5 Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly due to the decline in raw material prices. It is recommended to be cautious about going long [44]. 3.7.6 Methanol - The methanol market fluctuates greatly due to factors such as the arrival of Iranian goods and potential plant maintenance. The supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to be bearish on rallies in the near - term and wait for a rebound in the far - term [46]. 3.7.7 Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading idea [48]. 3.7.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to have a larger fluctuation range due to factors such as the change in oil price focus, production increase, and geopolitical risks [48]. 3.7.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain lacks a clear driving direction and is expected to follow the cost - end movement. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity of ethylene glycol [50]. 3.7.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is affected by different factors. The price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term [52]. 3.7.11 Pulp - The pulp spot price is stable, and the market has rigid demand. The price is expected to be supported but has limited upside space. It is recommended to establish long positions at low prices after observing the port inventory and spot trading [53]. 3.7.12 Logs - The spot trading of logs is weak, and the supply pressure exists. The price is expected to be under pressure [54]. 3.7.13 Urea - The spot price of urea has increased, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading idea [55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, various commodities are categorized into trend - bearish, oscillating - bearish, oscillating, oscillating - bullish, and trend - bullish trends. Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are classified as bearish, oscillating, and bullish [5][9]. - Macroeconomic news includes Sino - Russian cooperation, semiconductor supply issues, central bank liquidity operations, and service trade data [11]. - In the macro - financial sector, stock index futures are advised to focus on rotation strategies, and bond futures are expected to rise. The black market in the medium - term (winter) maintains a bearish view on rallies. Other sectors such as non - ferrous metals, agriculture, energy, and chemicals also have corresponding investment outlooks [14][18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic News - Sino - Russian cooperation emphasizes expanding mutual investment and exploring new cooperation areas [11]. - The issue of Anshi Semiconductor's supply disruption is causing turmoil in the global semiconductor supply chain, and China will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises [11]. - The central bank has resumed treasury bond trading, and will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation [11]. - The list of the first - and second - tier benchmark libraries for public fund performance comparison has been released, mainly including stock indices [12]. - China welcomes Goldman Sachs to continue investing in China to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations [12]. - In the first three quarters, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 59362.2 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [12]. - The US federal government is in a shutdown, and the US Supreme Court will review Trump's tariff policy [12]. 2. Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - A - shares are in a shrinking adjustment, with the PMI falling to 49%. The central bank's bond - buying operations have symbolic significance, and the fourth - quarter monetary policy is expected to be further loosened [14]. Bond Futures - The monetary policy is being implemented, and bonds still have upward momentum. The central bank's bond - buying operations have symbolic bullishness [15]. Black Market (Screw and Ore) - In the medium - term (winter), a bearish view on rallies is maintained. Although the export is resilient and the risk of short - term negative feedback is reduced, the winter storage willingness is affected, and the steel price rebound space is limited [17][18]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate in the short term. The supply may shrink in the short term, but the potential negative feedback risk from the steel market will limit the price rebound [20]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to buy at the lower end of the oscillation range. For silicomanganese, a bearish view on rallies remains [21][23]. 3. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum can be short - sold on rallies, and alumina can be short - sold in the short term and observed in the medium - to - long term [27]. Zinc - Short - sell on rallies as the domestic inventory slightly increases and the market is cautious [28]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is currently weakly oscillating under the influence of the resumption of production expectations, but strong demand will support it in the future [30]. Industrial Silicon - It oscillates within a range, and small - position long positions or selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered at the lower end of the range [31]. Polysilicon - It oscillates within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to policy expectation disturbances at the lower end of the range [32]. 4. Agricultural Products Cotton - A bearish view on oscillations at low levels is maintained due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [34]. Sugar - A bearish view on oscillations is maintained. Globally, there is an oversupply of sugar, and domestically, there are both supply and demand pressures [36]. Eggs - The futures are currently strong but may face pressure. The spot price may be slightly strong in November, and an oscillating trading strategy is recommended [38]. Apples - The market is oscillating. Attention should be paid to price trends, storage progress, and purchasing intentions [40]. Corn - The market is divided, and it is recommended to wait and see. There is still supply pressure, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure in November and the release of policy wheat [41][42]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see as the spot price in the sales area is weakening [43]. Pigs - A bearish view on rallies for near - month contracts is maintained due to continuous supply pressure and weak demand [43]. 5. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to oscillate. OPEC +'s decision to slow down production increases has limited support for oil prices [46]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the trend of crude oil, with a supply - abundant and demand - flat situation [47]. Plastics - A bearish view on oscillations is maintained due to large supply pressure and weak demand [49]. Methanol - The near - month contracts are recommended to be traded with a bearish view on oscillations, and the far - month contracts can be slightly long - positioned after the emergence of upward drivers [50]. Caustic Soda - A bearish view on oscillations is maintained. The spot price is weak, and there are certain support and risk factors [51]. Asphalt - The price is expected to have larger fluctuations. The inventory reduction speed may slow down, and there are geopolitical and winter storage expectations [52][53]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to continue to be weak due to insufficient cost support and unimproved supply - demand structure [54]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - In the short term, it may be strongly oscillating due to the approaching peak season, but in the medium - to - long term, a bearish view is maintained due to abundant supply [55]. Offset Printing Paper - If the price increase is implemented, long positions can be considered at low prices with risk control [56]. Pulp - The spot price provides certain support, and long positions can be considered at low prices after observing port destocking and spot trading [56]. Logs - The market is weakly oscillating, and the price is expected to be under pressure [56]. Urea - A bearish view on oscillations is maintained. There is a game between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the impact of coal prices on sentiment [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The iron element supply is in a loose pattern, and the decrease in hot metal production suppresses iron ore prices. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter to ease the pressure of winter storage. The single-side prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of longing coking coal and shorting hot-rolled coils can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. The supply side has a rebound in port arrivals, while the demand side sees a decline in hot metal production and weakening restocking demand from steel mills. The inventory pressure is increasing. The iron ore driving force is weakening. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke Industry - The coke futures fluctuated downward. The spot price has been raised for the third time, and there is still an expectation of further increases. The cost is supported by the rebound of coking coal prices, but the demand is suppressed by environmental protection restrictions and low steel mill profits. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures fluctuated downward, with a divergence between the futures and the spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar 05 contract decreased by 37 to 3108, and the hot-rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 32 to 3272 [2]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price decreased by 20 to 2930, and the plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730. The profits of hot-rolled coils in East China and North China decreased by 10, while the profit in South China remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.5 to 239.9, with a growth rate of 1.5%. The production of five major steel products increased by 10 to 875.3, with a growth rate of 1.2% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7, with a decline rate of -2.6%. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 to 602.5, with a decline rate of -3.1% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3, with a decline rate of -5.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 916.4, with a growth rate of 2.7% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The costs of various iron ore warehouse receipts decreased. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 6.6 to 829.3, with a decline rate of -0.8% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ores in Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder decreased by 6 to 782, with a decline rate of -0.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4, with a growth rate of 58.6%. The global shipments decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8, with a decline rate of -5.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, with a decline rate of -1.5%. The national pig iron monthly production decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6, with a decline rate of -5.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 to 14714.08, with a growth rate of 1.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9, with a decline rate of -2.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612. The coke 01 contract decreased by 43 to 1729, with a decline rate of -2.4% [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, with a growth rate of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, with a decline rate of -1.5% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, with a growth rate of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 to 59.9, with a growth rate of 2.1% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 to -3.6, with a growth rate of 49.2% [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 32 to 1253, with a decline rate of -2.5% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 3.8 to 851.8, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean coal production increased by 1.5 to 434.9, with a growth rate of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, with a growth rate of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 to 81.1, with a decline rate of -10.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5, with a growth rate of 2.2% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a downturn during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with rebar prices dropping to around 3100 yuan/ton due to weaker-than-expected demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The steel market's performance in the traditional peak season has been disappointing, with prices falling from 3200 yuan/ton in mid-September to a low of 3021 yuan/ton in mid-October [1] - The adjustment in steel prices began in late September, primarily due to weakened macro expectations and significantly lower demand during the peak season [2] - By late October, trade tensions showed signs of easing, leading to a marginal improvement in steel demand, which helped prices stabilize around 3000 yuan/ton [1][2] Group 2: Future Price Expectations - As November approaches, the steel market is expected to enter a traditional demand slump, with further price declines likely due to reduced demand [2] - The expectation is that steel prices may test lower levels again in November, but a potential rebound could occur in late November due to decreasing supply and strong policy expectations [4] Group 3: Supply and Profitability - In October, domestic pig iron production remained high, contributing to the strength of iron ore prices, while the rising costs of iron ore and coking coal contrasted with the weakening steel prices [2] - The profitability of steel mills has been under pressure, with the proportion of profitable mills dropping from 68% in early August to 45% by the end of October [3] - The anticipated further decline in steel demand and ongoing losses for steel mills may lead to increased willingness to cut production, especially with potential upgrades to production restrictions during the heating season [3] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The overall outlook for the steel market in November suggests a potential for prices to decline further initially, followed by a possible recovery as discussions around winter storage begin and supply from loss-making mills decreases [4] - Iron ore faces demand pressure from declining pig iron production, while global iron ore shipments have increased since October, leading to a continued oversupply situation [4]

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月4日 | 网材产业期现日报 | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 削值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3320 | -10 | 231 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3145 | 3166 | -21 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3168 | 3189 | -21 | 52 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3079 | 3106 | -27 | 141 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3330 | -20 | 15 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3250 | -20 | -୧2 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3310 | ...