地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 05 日 商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 666 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil and gas stocks are experiencing a significant increase following a major military action by the U.S. against Venezuela, which may lead to increased investment in the country's oil infrastructure by U.S. companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Baikang Oil Services (02178) surged by 30%, trading at 0.065 HKD [1] - Shandong Molong (002490) rose by 10.84%, trading at 3.58 HKD [1] - Dalipu Holdings (01921) increased by 5.79%, trading at 7.86 HKD [1] Group 2: Military Action and Implications - The U.S. military conducted a large-scale strike on Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and taking him to the U.S. [1] - President Trump announced that the U.S. will "manage" Venezuela and that major U.S. oil companies will enter the country to invest billions of dollars in repairing oil infrastructure and generating revenue [1] Group 3: Venezuela's Oil Production Context - According to Goldman Sachs, Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally and peaked at approximately 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s [1] - As of November last year, Venezuela's oil production had declined to 930,000 barrels per day, with reports indicating that some oil fields have ceased production, suggesting a potential further decline in future production [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil and gas stocks have shown strength following significant geopolitical events in Venezuela, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Baikin Oilfield Services, Shandong Molong, and Dalip Holdings [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Baikin Oilfield Services (02178) increased by 30%, trading at 0.065 HKD [1] - Shandong Molong (00568) rose by 10.84%, trading at 3.58 HKD [1] - Dalip Holdings (01921) saw a rise of 5.79%, trading at 7.86 HKD [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Events - The U.S. military conducted a large-scale operation against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and taking him to the U.S. [1] - President Trump announced that the U.S. would "manage" Venezuela and that major U.S. oil companies would invest billions of dollars to repair oil infrastructure and generate revenue [1] Group 3: Oil Production Context - According to Goldman Sachs, Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally [1] - Venezuela's oil production peaked at approximately 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s [1] - As of November last year, Venezuela's oil production had declined to 930,000 barrels per day, with reports indicating that some oil fields have ceased production, suggesting potential further declines in output [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant divergence within the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints, leading to a strong performance in copper, aluminum, and precious metals, while lead prices show a weak rebound lacking fundamental support [1][2] - The surge in copper and aluminum prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions from key production areas, which have created a narrative of scarcity in industrial metals, further fueled by positive market sentiment and capital inflows [1][3] - Lead prices experienced a daily increase of 125 yuan/ton to 17,425 yuan/ton; however, this rebound is characterized as "virtual fire," primarily driven by market sentiment rather than improvements in the underlying fundamentals, as evidenced by weak demand and increasing inventory pressures [1][2] Group 2 - Leading companies in the sector are adopting different strategies in response to market conditions, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals firms focusing on capacity expansion and resource allocation, while lead industry players are concentrating on cost control and cash flow management to navigate the current phase of industry pressure [2][3] - The short-term outlook suggests that copper and aluminum prices are likely to remain strong due to supportive supply narratives and macroeconomic expectations, while lead prices are expected to face downward pressure from rising inventories and weak demand, with a projected trading range of 17,100 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is characterized by a mix of strong and weak performances, necessitating a careful approach to investment opportunities, particularly in distinguishing between strong commodities like copper and aluminum and weaker ones like lead [4]

大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年1月5日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：芝商所再提高保证金，元旦期间美国空袭委内瑞拉，金价早间反弹；美 国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨；美债收益率多数上涨，10 年期美债收益率涨1.38个基点报4.191%；美元指数涨0.21%报98.46，离岸人民币对 美元升值报6.9699；COMEX黄金期货涨0.02%报4341.90美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货984.84，现货980.75，基差-5.09，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单97704千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 节前主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌28元至5463元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5350 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+10），山东地区现货价格 5236 元/吨（环比+25）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓增加 812 手至 1.8 万手，空头持仓增加 1114 至 2.31 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 | | | | | 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 | | | | | 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，截至 2025 年 12 ...

2026年开年，地缘冲突频发，全球经济、地缘政策不确定性加大，推升避险情绪，金价再次走强。2026 年1月5日早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格升至4400美元。 每日经济新闻 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

燃料油：地缘冲突爆发，短期将继续上行 2026 年 1 月 5 日 低硫燃料油：大概率出现跟涨，外盘现货高低 硫价差暂时平稳 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2602 | 元/吨 | 2, 446 | -0. 61% | | 2,447 | -0.97% | | | | FU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,447 | -0.97% | | 2.456 | -1. 13% | | | | LU2602 | 元/吨 | 2.918 | -1.42% | | 2. 933 | -1.84% | | | | FU2603 | 元/吨 | 2.935 | -1.84% | | 2. 956 | -1. 47% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 | F ...

Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 17 元至 2216 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格 上涨 48 元至 2250 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 61411 手至 43.6 万手，空头持 仓减少 43856 手至 53.1 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震荡偏 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.74 万吨，较上一期数据增加 6.49 吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 3.98 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 2.51 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 42.26 万吨，较上期增加 1.86 万吨，环比增 4.61 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复及地缘冲突利好金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：元旦节前，多头资金获利了结导致贵金属整体 ...