Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 - Report Type: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, the price rose and then fell. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. - The spot market supply - tightness expectation has improved due to the peak season of domestic aquaculture and the listing of domestic rapeseed, while the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillates and falls back, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventories support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant. The short - term market will maintain range - bound oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed output and the lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of oil - mill rapeseed meal [12]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data such as harvest area, output, inventory, and consumption [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: From July 17th to July 28th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2929 - 2990 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 8.35 - 21.13 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2640 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 0 - 99 million tons [14]. - **Inventory Data**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 228% week - on - week compared to last week's 0.46 million tons and a decrease of 58.06% year - on - year compared to 3.6 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Import Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, the price rose and then fell. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: - **Fundamentals**: Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventories support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2580 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 228% week - on - week and a decrease of 58.06% year - on - year [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards [9]. - **Main Position**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the shipping market is highly volatile, and the future freight rate trend is unclear. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and long - term contracts should consider taking profits when prices rise and wait for a stable callback to determine the subsequent direction [1][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Shipping Market Data - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% [1]. - Also on July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2%; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53%; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9%; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50%; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% [1]. Economic Data in Different Regions - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 6) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. Market Situation and Policy Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 25, the main contract 2510 closed at 1527.5, down 2.71%, with a trading volume of 42,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 609 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were previously advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points). If there is a further pullback today, consider taking profits; it was previously advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It was previously advised to take profits when each contract price rises, wait for a stable callback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. - Circuit breakers: The circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - Margin: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - Intraday opening limit: The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical News - On July 27, the US Middle East envoy said that the stalled cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip were back on track, the Abraham Accords would be further expanded, and the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations would also resume [5]. - On July 27, it was reported that Syrian and Israeli officials held talks in Paris to ease the situation in southern Syria but did not reach an agreement. All parties agreed to continue talks [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices weakened at the end of the week. With the approaching deadline of the trade - war, the market remains worried. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September, with relatively high certainty on the supply side. The peak - season on the demand side is approaching, and major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak - season, but the peak - season demand cannot be disproven at present. It is necessary to continue closely monitoring the market inventory. If inventory accumulates continuously, the market's peak - season demand expectation will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil lacks driving forces and is likely to show weak fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short - selling at high prices [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 18 was - 577,000 barrels, compared with an expected - 646,000 barrels and a previous value of 839,000 barrels. As of the week ending July 21, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 971,000 barrels to 20.525 million barrels. The EIA report showed that US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18, while domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - week high and imports hit a three - month high, with a sharp decrease in the proportion of Asian sources and a sharp drop in Chinese demand. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is unlikely to change the existing production - increase plan at the Monday meeting. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending July 25 was 415, down from the previous value of 422 [11][12]. - **Macroeconomics**: The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000. The US S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value in July was 55.2, and the Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5. The annualized total number of new home sales in the US in June was 627,000. The UK's seasonally adjusted retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.9% [15][17]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Iran will hold a tripartite meeting with China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear program. Russian President Putin will visit China in September to attend the 80th anniversary commemorative activities of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War. The next round of China - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. The US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas [19][22]. - **Institutional Forecasts**: Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel and the WTI crude oil price forecast to $63 per barrel, previously $57 per barrel. It maintains the forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively in 2026 [22]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - From July 27 to July 30, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden. On July 30, data on the US API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25 will be released. On July 30, data on the US ADP employment in July will be released. On July 31, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit), initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26, and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in June will be announced. On August 1, data on the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in July will be released. On August 2, data on the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending August 1 will be released [23]. 3.2 Price Basic Data - **Crude Oil Basic Prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract are presented for different dates from 2024 to 2025, along with their weekly, monthly, and annual changes and change rates [32]. - **Crude Oil Forward Prices**: The forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils are shown for different dates in 2025 [55]. - **Crude Oil Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils, including different contract combinations, are presented, along with the prices of SC contracts [58][60]. - **Crude Oil盘面 Spreads**: The spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, Brent main contract and SC main contract, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) are shown [66][69]. - **Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts**: The premiums and discounts of Iranian, Saudi, Iraqi, and Kuwaiti oil grades to Asia, as well as the premiums and discounts of some oil grades in Shandong refineries, are presented [72][86]. - **US Dollar Index**: The relationship between the US dollar index and WTI prices is shown [88]. 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand - **OPEC Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheets from 2022 to 2026 are presented, including production, demand, supply - demand differences, and inventory data. The production forecasts of OPEC+ are also shown [96][97][99]. - **EIA Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: EIA's world supply - demand balance sheets from 2024 to 2026 are presented, including supply, demand, net inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data. The supply - demand differences for different quarters are also shown [108][110][111]. - **OPEC Main Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Exports**: The monthly production data of OPEC's total production, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Venezuela, Iran, and Russia are presented, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][117][119].

Core Viewpoint - The current stagnation in gold prices is a deceptive calm before a potential significant movement, driven by various underlying factors. Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Market - The volatility of gold prices is decreasing, indicating a potential upcoming breakout, either upward or downward [1] - Global geopolitical tensions and uncertainties, such as conflicts in the Middle East and election years in key countries, are increasing demand for gold as a safe haven [1] - Central banks worldwide have been significantly increasing their gold purchases over the past two years, providing a supportive floor for gold prices [1] - The market is closely watching for signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, which could make holding gold more attractive [2] - Institutional investors are showing renewed interest in gold, as evidenced by a slowdown in outflows from gold ETFs and some inflows, indicating a more optimistic outlook [2] Group 2: Potential Price Movement - The future direction of gold prices hinges on overcoming a significant resistance level; a successful breakout could lead to substantial upward movement [3] - If the breakout fails, gold may seek support levels, but the presence of central bank buying is expected to limit downside potential [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to remain patient and wait for clear signals before making investment decisions, focusing on either a breakout above resistance or a significant drop [4] - Gold should be viewed as a stabilizing asset in an investment portfolio, primarily for risk management rather than speculative gains [4] - It is crucial to monitor key events such as Federal Reserve communications, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation trends, as these factors can significantly impact gold prices [5][6][7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The macro - overall sentiment is strong, and the market is oscillating strongly. Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; the SCFI US - West route was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; for the US - West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI initial value was 49.4, expected 49.8, previous value 49.4; services PMI initial value was 50, a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7; composite PMI initial value was 50.2, expected 50.5, previous value 50.2; Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, expected - 6, previous value - 8.1 [3]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May, the same as April, back above the critical point [3]. - US Markit manufacturing PMI initial value in June was 52, the same as May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February; services PMI initial value was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a 2 - month low; composite PMI initial value was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a 2 - month low [3]. 3.3 Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers have been advised to go long with a light position in the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points). If it continues to pull back today, consider taking profits; go short with a light position in the EC2512 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: For each contract, it has been recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent situation [4]. 3.4 Contract Information - On July 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1583.9, up 3.73%, with a trading volume of 65,200 lots and an open interest of 50,600 lots, an increase of 455 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro sentiment is strong, and the market is oscillating strongly. The near - month contracts are repairing the basis. Traders can consider adding positions on a pull - back today and set stop - losses [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - On July 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; for the US - West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; for the US - West route, it was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - On July 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; for the US - West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May [3]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the service PMI was 53.1 (a 2 - month low), and the composite PMI was 52.8 (a 2 - month low) [3]. 3.3 Trade Policies and Market Conditions - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points). Consider taking profits if it continues to pull back today. It was recommended to go short on the EC2512 contract with a light position [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts reached high levels, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. 3.5 Contract Information - On July 24, the main contract 2510 closed at 1583.9, up 3.73%, with a trading volume of 65,200 lots and an open interest of 50,600 lots, an increase of 455 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight crude oil fluctuated repeatedly. Geopolitical factors, such as the US and Israel withdrawing from negotiations with Hamas, increased geopolitical concerns, and the disruption of crude oil exports at Russian ports also boosted oil prices. However, the pessimistic outlook for trade negotiations still pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will continue to oscillate, with short - term trading in the range of 505 - 515, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as the EU is negotiating trade with the US while preparing counter - tariff lists, and there are geopolitical issues in the Middle East. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory data indicates a decline in US API and EIA inventories, which is bullish, but the increase in Cushing area inventory is a factor to consider. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, being neutral. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil show different trends, also being neutral. Overall, short - term trading is in the 505 - 515 range, and long - term is on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US Middle East peace envoy recalled the negotiation team as Hamas showed a lack of willingness to reach a cease - fire in Gaza, and Israel's negotiation team also withdrew. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates and gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, and will adjust strategies according to US tariff negotiation progress. The US Treasury Secretary said that US - China trade is in a "good state" and will discuss China's suspension of purchasing Russian and Iranian oil [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand. Bearish factors are OPEC+ continuous three - month production increase, tense US trade relations with other economies, and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel. The market is driven by short - term geopolitical conflicts and waiting for the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: For Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil, the settlement prices changed, with WTI and Oman showing increases, Brent a slight decrease, and SC a small increase [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with different increase amplitudes [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API and EIA inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, while the Cushing area inventory increased. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged as of July 24 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 15, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, and the net long positions of Brent crude oil increased [3].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures prices have surged for two consecutive days, breaking a nearly month-long period of fluctuation, primarily driven by "anti-involution policies" and speculation related to coal production cuts [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic methanol supply has recently decreased, with the operating rate of domestic methanol plants at 71.1%, down 7% from the previous peak [2] - Several methanol plants are scheduled for maintenance in July, including those in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, which will lead to a temporary reduction in supply [2] - Import expectations are also subdued due to geopolitical tensions affecting Iranian methanol production, although shipments may accelerate in late July [2] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite being in a demand off-season, traditional demand remains resilient, particularly in the olefins sector, with MTO operating rates at 81.1% [3] - The absolute demand levels are not low due to the commissioning of new downstream facilities, contributing to a noticeable increase in demand [3] - Traditional demand is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing production from newly commissioned facilities [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - There is a divergence between port and inland inventories, with port inventories at 83.55 million tons, indicating a seasonal accumulation [4] - Inland inventories are at historically low levels due to increased downstream demand, suggesting limited inventory pressure [4] - Recent increases in downstream enterprise inventories indicate a willingness to restock, reflecting current demand resilience [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The short-term methanol market is influenced by macroeconomic factors and speculation regarding the retirement of outdated chemical capacities, with prices expected to remain strong [5] - Supply is anticipated to gradually recover after late July, while demand is currently in a lull, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario [5] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, demand may improve in September and October, with limited downside potential for methanol prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices to 1021 yuan per gram is attributed to global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in the US dollar, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rising gold prices are driven by a shift in investor sentiment, with many moving away from stocks and funds to gold, reflecting a belief that gold is a more stable investment during turbulent times [3]. - The cost of gold mining has significantly increased, with rising labor and equipment costs making it more expensive to extract gold, contributing to the higher retail prices [3]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The price increase has adversely affected consumers, particularly those planning significant purchases like wedding gold, forcing them to adjust their budgets and expectations [3]. - Retailers have noted a decline in customer inquiries about gold purchases, with many now questioning the reasons behind the price hikes rather than asking about prices [3]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors who purchased gold at lower prices are experiencing substantial gains, highlighting the potential for significant returns in the gold market [3]. - The volatility of gold prices suggests that potential investors should be cautious and consider their financial capacity to handle price fluctuations before making purchases [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market may rebound, but due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [2][4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On July 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1598.1, with a 1.4% increase, a trading volume of 96,500 lots, and an open interest of 50,500 lots, an increase of 3,849 lots from the previous day [4]. - The basis continued to converge, but the spot market lacked sufficient momentum to support the continuous upward movement of futures prices. The main contract opened high and closed low but still rose slightly [4]. Freight Index - On July 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% [3]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1,218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the European route was 1,435.21 points, down 0.50%; the US - West route was 1,186.59 points, up 0.85% [3]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1,733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2,099 USD/TEU, down 0.10%; the US - West route was 2,194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% [3]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1,313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the European route was 1,726.41 points, up 1.9%; the US - West route was 1,027.49 points, down 5.2% [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [3]. - US Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value in June was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (a two - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (a two - month low) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are recommended to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to pull back today, consider adding positions; consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the pull - back to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].