Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 节前主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌28元至5463元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5350 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+10），山东地区现货价格 5236 元/吨（环比+25）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓增加 812 手至 1.8 万手，空头持仓增加 1114 至 2.31 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 | | | | | 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 | | | | | 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，截至 2025 年 12 ...

2026年开年，地缘冲突频发，全球经济、地缘政策不确定性加大，推升避险情绪，金价再次走强。2026 年1月5日早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格升至4400美元。 每日经济新闻 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

燃料油：地缘冲突爆发，短期将继续上行 2026 年 1 月 5 日 低硫燃料油：大概率出现跟涨，外盘现货高低 硫价差暂时平稳 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2602 | 元/吨 | 2, 446 | -0. 61% | | 2,447 | -0.97% | | | | FU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,447 | -0.97% | | 2.456 | -1. 13% | | | | LU2602 | 元/吨 | 2.918 | -1.42% | | 2. 933 | -1.84% | | | | FU2603 | 元/吨 | 2.935 | -1.84% | | 2. 956 | -1. 47% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 | F ...

Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 17 元至 2216 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格 上涨 48 元至 2250 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 61411 手至 43.6 万手，空头持 仓减少 43856 手至 53.1 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震荡偏 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.74 万吨，较上一期数据增加 6.49 吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 3.98 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 2.51 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 42.26 万吨，较上期增加 1.86 万吨，环比增 4.61 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复及地缘冲突利好金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：元旦节前，多头资金获利了结导致贵金属整体 ...

2026年开年，地缘冲突频发，全球经济、地缘政策不确定性加大，推升避险情绪，金价再次走强。2026 年1月5日早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格升至4400美元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Market sentiment has declined, and the overall fundamentals are weak. Hold short positions around 15,700 [1]. Pure Benzene - The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 [4]. Styrene - The rebound space is limited. EB02/03 should be treated bearishly above 6,800, and short the EB processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the price rebound space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the inventory inflection point. - Glass: The upward space of the disk is limited, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening of demand [5]. Methanol - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to destocking in the first quarter of the next year, which will support the 05 contract [7][8][9]. LLDPE and PP - PP: The pressure on the 05 contract is still large if there are few planned maintenance; PE: The overall pressure is still large in January [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - PX: The upstream PX price is expected to adjust before the festival. It is recommended to go long at a low level in the medium - term and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - PTA: It follows raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to trade in the high - level range of 4,800 - 5,200 and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at a high level near 4,000 for EG2605 and conduct relevant spread trading. - Short - fiber: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations. Short the processing margin on rallies. - Bottle chip: It follows the cost side. Short the processing margin on rallies [14]. LPG No specific overall view is provided, just price and inventory data. Crude Oil - The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [18]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while the basis of whole milk and non - standard prices changed significantly [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1000.00%, and the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of some countries decreased in November, and the tire production and export increased [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some upstream products remained stable, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha increased [4]. - **Benzene - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed slightly, and the processing margins of some products improved [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased, and the operating rates of some products changed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged, and the 01 contract price decreased slightly [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions decreased, and the 01 and 05 contract prices decreased [5]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: The operating rate and production of soda ash decreased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve [9]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: The contract prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of LLDPE and PP decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of LLDPE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as PX and ethylene changed, and the spreads changed [14]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA and related spreads changed, and the processing margins improved [14]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG and related spreads changed, and the inventory increased [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of polyester products changed [14]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads and basis decreased [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The refinery storage ratio of LPG increased, and the port inventory decreased [16]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products decreased, and the spreads changed [18].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military's surprise operation in Venezuela has heightened global geopolitical tensions, impacting various sectors in the A-share market, particularly those related to defense, oil, lithium resources, gold, and supply chain security [1][3]. Group 1: Military Operation Details - The U.S. military operation, named "Absolute Resolve," involved over 150 aircraft and was executed within three hours, successfully capturing President Maduro and his wife [3]. - The operation was meticulously planned over several months, with significant military assets deployed, including F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, and B-1 bombers [3]. Group 2: Impact on A-share Market - The conflict is expected to cause significant movements in five key sectors: defense and military, oil services and transportation, lithium resources, gold, and supply chain security [4]. - Historical trends indicate that military conflicts typically lead to increased orders and positive sentiment in the defense sector, with China's military budget growing at around 7% annually [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - **Defense and Military**: Likely to benefit from increased orders due to heightened geopolitical tensions [4]. - **Oil Services and Transportation**: Venezuela's oil infrastructure may be damaged, leading to higher global oil prices and increased demand for oil services and transportation [4]. - **Lithium Resources**: The conflict may halt lithium mining operations in Venezuela, exacerbating supply shortages as global demand for electric vehicles rises [4]. - **Gold**: Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gold prices are expected to rise amid increased global uncertainty [4]. - **Supply Chain Security**: Disruptions in Venezuela's mining operations could accelerate domestic production in China for critical materials [4]. Group 4: Market Movements and Stock Performance - Leading stocks in relevant sectors have already shown signs of movement, with increased trading volumes and price changes noted prior to the conflict [5]. - Key players include military contractors like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and lithium producers such as Ganfeng Lithium, which have demonstrated strong business fundamentals [5].

国金证券石油化工团队认为，当前原油价格仍在地缘冲突与供需过剩的矛盾中博弈，短期来看，主要支 撑来自地缘因素。地缘冲突引发的原油价格上涨都将是一时性的，中期将进一步加剧原油过剩的压力。 如委内瑞拉冲突结束，委内瑞拉产量可能修复至110万桶/天以上。 国泰君安期货分析师黄柳楠认为，原油短线受到委内瑞拉局势影响，委油出口短期继续受阻，油价或存 在部分情绪溢价高开。委内瑞拉短期出口直接下滑规模或在30-60万桶/日。但长期来看，各类油品间接 贸易渠道的孕育、轻重油市场的可分化性、地缘局势本身的演绎、OPEC+其他成员国对产量的填补均 可能进一步削弱市场对这一利好的计价程度。 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 2026年开年，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被俘引发市场对原油市场的关注。 由于委内瑞拉的探明石油储量居世界第一，当局的波动可能会让石油价格出现震荡，多数分析认为，原 油短线可能会冲高5%到8%，但中长期来看，受到全球经济疲软，原油供应依然供大于求，原油价格在 今年一季度依然会承压。由于事件发生在周末，市场对于下周一原油的表现也都翘首以盼。 短线或有5%到8%的涨幅 新华社消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月3日称，美军对委内瑞拉 ...

市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片纯苯预计跟随原料上涨0 纯苯基本面受制于港口高库存压力。上周纯苯港口小幅累库,但速度放缓,需求端下 游开工提升。周末山东成交价格继续回升,短期纯苯价格宽幅偏强震荡,关注美国和 委内瑞拉地缘冲突后续进展,03合约参考区间5420-5650元/吨。后续主要关注港口到 港量和未来美金纯苯市场成交价格。 操作建议: 节前多单继续持有,不建议追高,需警惕突发事件情绪端冲击。 风险提示: 0 2026年1月4 > 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片,纯苯开盘预计跟随高开。 1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进 委内瑞拉"。 2. 基本面情况:10月以来化纤行业反内卷对市场形成托底。上周瓶片供应变化不大, 下游工厂刚性补库为主。新装置预期内投产,对市 ...