2026 年 3 月 19 日 集运指数（欧线）：宽幅震荡，关注地缘情绪扰动 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | 期货 | 合约 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1,905.3 | -1.71% | 27,129 | 21,187 | -2,265 | 1.28 | 1.24 | | | EC2606 | 2,342.0 | -2.15% | 10,169 | 13,686 | -462 | 0.74 | 0.64 | | | EC2608 | 2,316.0 | -1.84% | 1,094 | 2,770 | -6 | 0.39 | 0.22 | | | EC2610 | 1,525.4 | -2. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, logic, and market trends of various industries including oil products, aromatics - polyester, coal chemical, salt chemical, and non - ferrous metals. Geopolitical factors such as the Middle East conflict, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, have a significant impact on the prices and supply - demand relationships of multiple commodities [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: Energy facilities may be attacked, leading to a rebound and surge in crude oil prices. - Fundamentals: Last week, API and EIA crude oil inventories in the US increased by 655,600 barrels and 615,600 barrels respectively. The resumption of oil exports from the Kirkuk oil field in Iraq has slightly eased supply concerns, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the overall crude oil supply is tight, with prices expected to remain high [3]. - Macro: The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%. Tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp rise in oil prices, impacting global inflation and economic growth, with a weak macro - sentiment and a strong short - term market risk - aversion tendency [3]. - Geopolitical: Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Iran has warned that the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are legitimate targets. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz shows no sign of calming down, and oil prices are highly sensitive to geopolitical news [4]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: The decline in bunker sales in Fujairah leads to a strong performance of low - sulfur fuel oil. - Fundamentals: For high - sulfur fuel oil, geopolitical sensitivity remains high. There are rumors of China releasing strategic reserves, and the market sentiment has cooled slightly. Some bunker demand has shifted to Singapore, and Egypt has increased high - sulfur power generation demand. However, the high valuation of high - sulfur fuel oil has reduced the refinery's processing willingness. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from Iran and Russia is limited, and the Asian high - sulfur balance sheet is tight. For low - sulfur fuel oil, attacks on Fujairah Port have affected bunker operations, with a 38% month - on - month decline in bunker sales in February. The shift of bunker demand to Singapore has supported low - sulfur fuel oil prices, and the Asian low - sulfur balance sheet is also tight [6][7]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Geopolitical disturbances continue. - Fundamentals: The war has led to the suspension of some operations at Iran's South Pars Gas Field and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns about energy supply and providing cost support for the LPG market. Although the spot market is affected by high prices and the demand is cautious, the market's bullish sentiment remains strong, and the LPG market is expected to remain strong in the short term [8]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Geopolitical conflicts drive costs, and attention should be paid to their progress. - Fundamentals: The overnight TA2605 closed up 110 points or 1.60% to 7004 points, with little change in positions. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere, and the spot basis was weak. The PTA load was 77.3% (-3.7 pct), and a Japanese PX supplier issued a force majeure notice. The polyester load increased to 86.7% (+2.6 pct), and the sales of polyester products were generally light [9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: The sentiment has回调, and the market is in a wide - range consolidation. - Fundamentals: The market sentiment is weak, with factory quotes in mainstream areas slightly decreasing by 10 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement is cautious, but enterprises have good backlog orders and are reluctant to lower prices significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased by 15.53% week - on - week. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is gradually being fulfilled. The international urea price has risen, while the domestic market maintains a stable supply and price policy, and the futures market is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: The attack on the South Pars Gas Field facilities provides a strong upward drive, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, MA2605 closed at 2912 points, up 3.34%. The news of the attack on the South Pars Gas Field in Iran has stimulated the night - session of MA2605 to open higher and reach a new high. The uncertainty in the raw material supply of Iranian methanol and the threat of Iran to counter - attack surrounding energy facilities have provided a strong short - term upward drive [11][12]. 3.4 Salt Chemical 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: The supply - demand side has weak drivers. - Fundamentals: After the decline in the futures price, downstream enterprises have replenished stocks from the futures - spot market, but the supply is still at a high level. The demand from the glass industry has limited support, and the cost of soda ash has no support. The upward drive mainly comes from the sentiment of other chemical commodities, and the supply - demand side is under pressure [13]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: The sentiment is weak, but the low - supply level provides support. - Fundamentals: The supply has continued to decrease, and the spot price is relatively stable. The speculative demand has slowed down, and the inventory of middle - men has reached a high level. The downstream demand is weak, but the impact of the weak real - estate demand is gradually narrowing. If the second - hand housing sales continue to pick up, the demand for glass for home decoration may improve [14][16]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: There is still supply - demand support, but the valuation is relatively high. - Fundamentals: The spot price is rising, mainly driven by export demand. The 32% caustic soda in the futures market has followed the rise but with a smaller increase. The current futures valuation is relatively high. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the supply of caustic soda for ethylene - based PVC at home and abroad, and the supply - demand support remains. Attention should be paid to the duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade [17]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The copper production in Chile decreased in January. - Fundamentals: Codelco's copper production in January was 91,000 tons, a sharp drop of 47% from December last year and a 1.8% year - on - year decline. Although there are upstream mine disturbances and long - term demand from the new energy transition, in the short - term stagflation trading logic, the long - term positive factors are often ignored. If the destocking in the peak season in late March fails to meet expectations, the inventory pressure may suppress copper prices [18]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged, and the gold price fluctuates weakly. - Fundamentals: Stagflation concerns and the Fed's possible hawkish stance have put pressure on the gold price. The inflation expectation has postponed the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, supporting the US dollar. The conflict between Iran and the US - Israel coalition is still intense, and the gold price is under pressure in the short term [20]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: It fluctuates weakly. - Fundamentals: The rise in energy prices is expected to lead to an increase in inflation, which is not conducive to interest - rate cuts. The US consumer spending and core PCE price index have increased, which may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the silver price is expected to decline [21].

资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，CCF，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 2026 年 03 月 19 日 短纤：地缘再升级，成本驱动偏强 20260319 瓶片：地缘再升级，成本驱动偏强 20260319 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2604 | 8302 | 8398 | -96 | PF04-05 | 52 | 38 | 14 | | PF | 短纤2605 | 8250 | 8360 | -110 | PF05-06 | ୧୫ | -8 | 76 | | | 短纤2606 | 8182 | 8368 | -186 | PF主力基差 | -17 | -68 | 51 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 173227 | 103287 | 69940 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 8. 285 | 8. 330 | -45 | | | 短纤主 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins - The current market is in a fierce game between strong cost support, supply contraction expectations, and weak actual demand. It is expected that prices will maintain a wide - range high - level shock. If the geopolitical tension continues, under the combination of "domestic production cuts, reduced imports, and increased exports", and the conflict tends to be long - term, the domestic start - up rate may decline further after April, and the 05 contract is expected to have a significant upward market [1]. Rubber - The Sino - US conflict remains stalemate, and the crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. In the short term, the crude oil trend still dominates the market risk sentiment. The natural rubber fundamentals have both long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,000 - 17,500, with strong cost support at the lower end. Be vigilant about the market trading the reduction of Middle - East tire demand again at the upper end of the price range [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. In the short term, multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. In the medium - to - long term, there is still some room below the current price. It is expected that the futures will be in a shock - adjustment pattern, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and pay attention to inventory and production line changes. - Glass: The current supply - side daily melting volume is already low, and the real - estate data shows that the real - estate is still in the adjustment period, and the demand - side recovery is slow. The overall fundamentals have weak supply and demand. It is advisable to view it with a shock outlook. The strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. Pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Although the fundamentals have marginally improved, the overall pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. Recently, the Middle - East situation has slightly eased, and after the emotional tide recedes, the futures price has declined. - PVC: In the short term, the supply - demand situation has slightly changed. Affected by the expected increase in ethylene supply tension, the production load of ethylene - based production enterprises may be reduced in the long term, while the calcium - carbide - based production load has slightly increased. The cost increase drives the bottom of the PVC price to rise. The domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes due to unstable freight and other risks [4]. Urea - The current urea fundamentals have not improved significantly. In the short term, urea prices are mainly subject to fluctuations driven by energy costs. Recently, the tense situation of high oil prices has slightly eased. Under the background of domestic price - stabilizing policies, urea may experience a shock - decline in the short term [5]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, and the overall supply - demand is marginally weakening. The current benchmark price still dominates the chemical trend. Pay attention to the downstream negative feedback. It is expected that the absolute price of PX will fluctuate with the oil price in the short term. - PTA: In the short term, PTA's own driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. - Ethylene glycol: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly declined, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be at a low level. The polyester load is seasonally rising, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to expand in March - April. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise. - Short - fiber: In the short term, the short - fiber's own driving force is limited, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - Bottle chips: The supply of domestic bottle chips is gradually increasing in March. Under the influence of macro and crude oil stimulation and the peak procurement season of PET, the downstream procurement of bottle chips is expected to follow up, and the supply - demand of bottle chips is expected to be tight [6]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support", and Brent maintains a range - bound fluctuation. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts for more than a month, the supply will change from inventory depletion to a substantial shortage, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short term, pure benzene may follow the oil - price fluctuations. - Styrene: In March, the supply of styrene remains high, and the supply - demand is expected to slightly de - stock. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene follows the oil - price fluctuations [10]. Methanol - At present, the price is dominated by supply - interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The subsequent trend highly depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [11]. LPG - No overall core view provided for LPG in the report Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: Futures prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined on March 18 compared with the previous day, with declines ranging from 0.28% to 0.77%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also decreased, with declines of 0.58% and 0.61% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 56.83 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 61.93 million tons. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 9.34% to 59.62 million tons, and trader inventory decreased by 6.04% to 19.36 million tons [1]. - **开工率**: PE device start - up rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, and downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PP device start - up rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and downstream weighted start - up rate of PP powder increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.99% and 1.92% respectively on March 18 compared with the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 200.00% [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: In January, Thailand's rubber production increased by 11.09% to 549,000 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161,100 tons, and India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108,100 tons. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.42% to 677,569 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 2.20% to 49,291 tons [2]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased by 3.68% and 4.32% respectively to 77.71% and 70.22% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass prices in North - China, East - China, and Central - China remained unchanged on March 18. Soda ash prices in North - China, East - China, Central - China, and Northwest - China also remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash start - up rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and weekly output increased slightly. Float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 146,900 tons, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume increased by 1.82% to 89,360 tons. Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.76% to 75,849,000 weight - cases, and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.6% to 193,170 tons [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On March 18, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the price of East - China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the caustic - soda industry decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the total start - up rate of PVC increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The start - up rates of downstream industries such as printing and dyeing increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory**: Caustic - soda factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.6% to 53,000 tons, and PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory both decreased by 17.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Urea - **Prices**: On March 18, the futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price continued to decline weakly. The prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and other regions decreased slightly [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea decreased by 1.36% to 218,200 tons, and the start - up rate of urea production enterprises decreased by 1.36% to 92.68%. The agricultural demand for return - green fertilizer has ended, and the industrial demand is flat [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 15.53% to 808,900 tons, and port inventory remained unchanged at 189,000 tons [5]. Ester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased to varying degrees. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also showed different trends [6]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all decreased to varying degrees, while the start - up rates of polyester comprehensive, direct - spinning filament, and polyester bottle chips increased [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: On March 18, Brent crude oil increased by 3.83% to $107.38 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.11% to $96.32 per barrel, and SC crude oil increased by 0.90% to 751.20 yuan per barrel [8]. - **价差**: The spreads between Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3, and Brent - WTI all changed compared with the previous day [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of CFR China pure benzene, pure - benzene East - China spot, and benzene - ethylene East - China spot decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.6% to 288,000 tons, and the inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu ports increased by 3.8% to 162,500 tons [10]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and benzene - ethylene all decreased to varying degrees [10]. Methanol - **Prices**: On March 18, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 2.28% to 2912 yuan per ton, and the closing price of MA2609 increased by 1.19% to 2719 yuan per ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.32% to 484,900 tons, and port inventory decreased by 3.89% to 1,262,000 tons [11]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of domestic methanol enterprises increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27%, and the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased by 9.58% to 47.2% [11]. LPG - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of PG2604 and PG2605 decreased by 1.42% and 1.15% respectively. The price of South - China spot (civil gas) remained unchanged, and the price of deliverable spot increased by 1.81% [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9%, and port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227,000 tons [12]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of upstream main - refineries decreased by 1.76% to 81.35%, and the start - up rate of downstream PDH decreased by 2.62% to 63.2% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For INE crude oil, consider the long - term positive factors from Libya and CPC, and suggest shorting the INE - WTI spread [2]. - For methanol, it already includes the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, and suggests taking profits on rallies [2]. - For urea, expect a high - level start in the first quarter. Although there are positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider shorting on rallies. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [5]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, suggest opening new positions or holding existing positions in buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, in the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, there may be rebounds, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, while in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. - For PX, expect the load to further decline to a low level, and the valuation is expected to rise with the fermentation of the raw - material shortage logic, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [31]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to continue to decline, imports to decrease significantly, and port inventory to turn to de - stocking. The oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant reduction in imports, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [35]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 9.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.22% decline, at 735.40 yuan/barrel. The relevant refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 69.00 yuan/ton, a 1.47% decline, at 4629.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decline, at 5493.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start strategic short - term allocation for crude oil. Before Libya increases production in the middle of the year, widen the Platts north - south spread of different oil types at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread [6]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 95 yuan/ton, Lunan by 30 yuan/ton, Henan by 35 yuan/ton, Hebei by - 10 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 94.00 yuan/ton, at 2912 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 238 yuan [2]. - **Strategy**: The current methanol price already fully reflects the geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits on rallies [2]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 30 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 23 yuan/ton, at 1855 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: There is a strong expectation of high - level start in the first quarter. Although there are positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider shorting on rallies. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls are optimistic due to macro expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, 2.23 percentage points higher than last week and 0.45 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, 3.17 percentage points higher than last week and 6.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 1.21% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 93.8 million tons, a 1.32% increase. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.5 million tons, a 1% increase from the previous month. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, suggest opening new positions or holding existing positions in buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 166 yuan, at 5735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5680 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 55 (+ 116) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 11 (- 27) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2600 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the ethylene price was 1250 (+ 50) US dollars/ton, and the caustic soda spot price was 685 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 81.4%, a 0.2% increase from the previous month; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 82.9%, a 2.3% increase from the previous month; the ethylene method was 77.6%, a 4.6% decrease from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.3%, a 3.5% increase from the previous month. The in - factory inventory was 37.7 million tons (- 8.1), and the social inventory was 140.7 million tons (+ 0.3) [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, there may be rebounds, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 8400 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8154 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 246 yuan/ton, an increase of 289 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10300 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the styrene active contract was 9968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 236 yuan/ton. The basis was 332 yuan/ton, an increase of 386 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.5 yuan/ton. The non - integrated EB device profit was - 306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton. The EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a 2.32% decrease. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.91 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, a 2.10% increase. The EPS operating rate was 58.76%, a 46.59% increase. The ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a 1.20% decrease [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated styrene profit is moderately high, and the valuation upward - repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8431 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The basis was - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 57.54 million tons, an increase of 3.92 million tons from the previous month, and the trader inventory was 5.00 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 million tons from the previous month. The average downstream operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, an increase of 2.49 million tons from the previous month, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, a decrease of 0.655 million tons from the previous month, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 million tons from the previous month. The average downstream operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was - 197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, while in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 144 yuan, at 9874 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 256 yuan (- 22). The PX load in China was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease from the previous month; the Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease from the previous month. The Daxie plant was shut down, and multiple plants had unplanned load reductions. Multiple plants in South Korea, Japan, and Chinese Taiwan overseas had load reductions. The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease from the previous month. The Yisheng New Materials and Weilian Chemical plants had load reductions, and a 1.5 - million - ton plant in East China was shut down due to an accident. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 15.7 million tons of PX to China in the first ten days of March, a 1.8 - million - ton decrease year - on - year. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of January was 4.64 billion tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation cost, the PXN was 243 US dollars (+ 14), the South Korean PX - MX was 110 US dollars (+ 29), and the naphtha cracking spread was 273 US dollars (- 39) [27]. - **Strategy**: Expect the PX load to further decline to a low level, and the valuation is expected to rise with the fermentation of the raw - material shortage logic, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 128 yuan, at 6790 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 242 yuan (- 6). The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease from the previous month. The Yisheng New Materials and Weilian Chemical plants had load reductions, and a 1.5 - million - ton plant in East China was shut down due to an accident. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. Multiple plants were restarted, and a 300,000 - ton filament plant of Hengyou was put into production. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, a 2.6 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the on - disk processing fee fell 33 yuan, to 313 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 23 yuan, at 4849 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 67 yuan (0). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease from the previous month. Among them, the synthetic - gas - based load was 74.7%, a 8.4% decrease from the previous month; the ethylene - based load was 62.4%, a 5.6% decrease from the previous month. For synthetic - gas - based plants, some plants of Yulin Chemical and Yueneng Chemical were under maintenance. For oil - chemical plants, the loads of Sinopec Wuhan, Zhongke Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, Sinochem Quanzhou, Shenghong, and BASF were reduced. Overseas, a plant in Kuwait was shut down, and the Marun plant in Iran was shut down. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. Multiple plants were restarted, and a 300,000 - ton filament plant of Hengyou was put into production. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure on March 17 was 0.86 million tons. The port inventory was 101.1 million tons, a 5.7 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based profit was - 2848 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 2252 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price rose to 1250 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 550 yuan [33][34]. - **Strategy**: Expect the load to continue to decline, imports to decrease significantly, and port inventory to turn to de - stocking. The oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant reduction in imports, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict in the Middle East has escalated, disrupting the global energy supply. China, as the world's largest crude oil importer, may release some commercial crude oil reserves to help the petrochemical industry through the current difficulties. The price of chemicals is unlikely to fall significantly due to the increase in cost [2]. - Crude oil will lead the chemical industry to continue its strong and volatile pattern. The prices of various chemical products are affected by geopolitical factors, and the market outlook varies for different products [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The operation risk of energy facilities in the Middle East has increased, and the shortage pattern continues. The market is facing a large supply gap, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The main influencing factors include the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production policy changes, and Sino-US tariff policy adjustments [7]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by geopolitical factors, the asphalt futures price fluctuates at a high level. The refinery's profit has deteriorated, and there is an expectation of a significant reduction in refinery operations. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supported by geopolitical factors, it fluctuates at a high level. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes are pushing up the futures price. In the long term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical situation in the short term [8][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the high - level fluctuation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The current valuation is moderately high, and it is expected to fluctuate following crude oil [11]. - **PX**: The supply is expected to be tight due to the contraction of the total supply and structural concessions. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips is maintained [13]. - **PTA**: Traders are actively selling, and the basis is rapidly weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain a positive spread logic in the short term [14][15]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is mainly affected by the geopolitical situation and runs strongly in a volatile manner. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][17]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to supply and demand, and it runs strongly in a volatile manner. The supply may be reduced, and there is an expectation of increased exports. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [18][19]. - **MEG**: The cost side is still supported, and the price is firm under the reduction of supply. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. - **Short Fibers**: The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with mostly rigid demand transactions. The price follows the upstream and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [21][22]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The intraday trading has become lighter, and the transaction price difference is large. The price follows the upstream raw materials, and the processing fee has a certain support below. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the continuous geopolitical conflict, it fluctuates within a range. The market tends to trade the geopolitical premium, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Urea**: The commercial reserves are concentrated and released, and the price is moderately weak. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand side has some changes. It is expected to fluctuate moderately and may be slightly weak [26]. - **PE**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and it should be treated with caution. Geopolitical factors support the raw material side, but the downstream demand is affected by price increases. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [30][31]. - **PP**: Geopolitical factors boost the support of the raw material side, and it fluctuates strongly. The raw materials such as crude oil and propane still support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31]. - **PL**: The refinery operation is decreasing, and the downstream is still under pressure. It fluctuates strongly. The operation is decreasing, but the powder profit is still under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [32]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and it is cautiously optimistic. The reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the shortage of upstream raw material supply. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is decreasing, and it is cautiously optimistic. The reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [34][35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 4.04, change: 0.01), Dubai (M1 - M2: 9.92, change: 0.72), etc. [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, such as asphalt (basis: - 310, change: 9, warehouse receipt: 93980 tons), etc. [38]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 242, change: - 72), etc. [39]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2581.98, with a decline of 0.38%; the commodity 20 index is 2916.20, with a decline of 0.36%; the industrial product index is 2557.35, with a decline of 0.31% [277]. - **Energy Index**: On March 18, 2026, the energy index was 1774.53, with a daily increase of 0.48%, a 5 - day increase of 2.97%, a 1 - month increase of 53.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 63.31% [279].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped, with New Energy Metals leading the decline. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Methanol, Ethylene Glycol, and Fiberboard, while the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, and Chinese Jujube [10][12][13]. - Gold remains in high - level consolidation with solid medium - term support. It may trade in a high range in the short term and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][18][19]. - Silver's upward momentum has slowed, and volatility may remain elevated. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the near term, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][24][25]. - Tin supply risks remain elevated, and tin prices still have bottom support, but are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term due to weak macro sentiment and supply improvement expectations [28][30][31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped. New Energy Metals led the drop. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, Methanol rose 3.3% with open - interest increasing 7.9% month - on - month, Ethylene Glycol gained 1.1% with open - interest increasing 0.1% month - on - month, and Fiberboard advanced 1.1% with open - interest decreasing 58.6% month - on - month. The top three decliners were Poly - Silicon (down 5.1% with open - interest increasing 1.4% month - on - month), Lithium Carbonate (down 4.4% with open - interest decreasing 0.5% month - on - month), and Chinese Jujube (down 2.8% with open - interest decreasing 9.7% month - on - month) [10][11][13]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Drop 3.2.1 Gold - On March 18, the Gold main contract dropped 0.2% to 1113.52 yuan/g (SHFE). Middle - East tensions, energy infrastructure attacks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions provide safe - haven and inflation - hedge premiums. High oil prices heighten inflation risks and dampen Fed rate - cut expectations, weighing on gold in the short term. However, gold's medium - term allocation value is prominent, and Asian demand offers downside support. In the short term, it may trade in a high range, and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][17][19]. 3.2.2 Silver - On March 18, the Silver main contract dropped 2.4% to 19980 yuan/kg (SHFE). It is supported by geopolitical safe - haven demand and inflation expectations but has weaker financial attributes than gold. Short - term performance is more sensitive to risk sentiment and interest rate expectations. Current high - interest - rate expectations constrain its valuation. If stagflation pricing deepens, its volatility may remain higher than gold. In the near term, it is expected to maintain high - level consolidation, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][23][25]. 3.2.3 Tin - On March 18, the Tin main contract dropped 2.6% to 370000 yuan/ton (SHFE). Supply risks remain high, and tin prices have bottom support, but there are no short - term drivers due to macro headwinds. Supply is expected to improve as Wa State restarts mines and Indonesia raises its production target, while the DRC situation keeps supply risks high. Demand from the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. Overall, tin prices are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term [28][29][31]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - Trump has confirmed the postponement of his visit to China, and China and the US will maintain communications on this matter [34]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has rolled out a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign investment projects with a planned total investment of $13.4 billion, including logistics projects for the first time [34]. - The Iranian President has confirmed the death of Ali Larijani [34]. - Trump has said that the US should consider withdrawing from NATO [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of rebar showed a pattern of rising and then falling today. Affected by the decline and adjustment of energy and chemical products, combined with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 2:00 am tomorrow, funds left the market for risk aversion. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, standing above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. It is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner, but the upward space depends on the actual performance of peak - season demand, whether the inventory can be destocked, and changes in the cost side [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 34,625 lots, and the trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, reaching 860,500 lots. In terms of the moving average, in the short - term, it broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,138, and in the medium - term, it was near the 30 - day moving average of 3,093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,110. The short - and medium - term trends strengthened [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,260 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 13, 2026, the rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 219,900 tons. There was a short - term resumption of production, but the overall trend was still shrinking. The weekly resumption of production was a phased restart, and the production was still lower year - on - year. The supply side did not show full - scale relaxation [3]. - Demand side: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and the sustainability needed to be verified. The significant weekly increase in apparent demand was mainly driven by restocking, and the terminal demand was still weaker than the same period last year [3]. - Inventory side: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons, with a significant inventory accumulation. Steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons, with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. The inventory was accumulating at a high level, and the pressure to destock was high. The total inventory was still increasing year - on - year, and social inventory was the main pressure point. The inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - Cost and profit: The rebar price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", "arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support increased, and the sentiment was supported in the short term [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and repair of cost support [6]. - Bearish factors: Persistently low terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in destocking speed, and a bearish capital position structure [6].

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1156.50 | -19.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1721.50 | -10.50↓ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 586837.00 | +3214.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 41008.00 | +10.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -74300.00 | -16199.00↓ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -4388.00 | +498.00↑ | | | JM9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 104.00 | -2.00↓ J9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 81.50 | +4.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 300.00 | 0.00 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 1090.00 | -250.00↓ | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 1100.00 | 0.00 唐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, and there is significant uncertainty. The situation in the Middle East and Mozambique is having an impact on the aluminum smelting industry, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. [1][16][20] - The supply and demand of various metals are in different states. For example, copper is in a seasonal destocking phase, while zinc has an increase in domestic inventory due to insufficient demand recovery compared to supply. [1][28] - The prices of different metals are expected to have different trends. For instance, copper prices may test key support levels, and aluminum prices are expected to be weak. [1][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 98,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 9,477 lots to 576,000 lots. The spot market showed different price trends in different regions. [1] - **Important Information**: As of March 16, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 5.46% to 547,300 tons. The production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to February decreased year - on - year. Chile's copper production in January was 409,900 tons, and Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to February decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The conflict between the US and Iran brings uncertainty. The African wet - process copper production may be affected by the shortage of sulfuric acid supply. The downstream consumption is strong, and the substitution of refined copper rods for recycled copper rods is prominent. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see as the market sentiment weakens and copper prices test key support levels. For arbitrage and options, also wait and see. [3][4][5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2505 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,048 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 1,921 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend. [6] - **Related Information**: Guinea is discussing policies to restrict bauxite production and exports. The UAE's aluminum exports and raw material transportation are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The registered volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased on March 18. China's alumina exports from January to February decreased year - on - year, while bauxite imports increased. New alumina production capacity is expected to be put into trial production. [7][8][9] - **Trading Logic**: The news of Guinea's policy on bauxite has magnified the price fluctuations of alumina. Although the policy details are not clear, the bauxite supply is in a surplus situation. In the short term, alumina prices may be firm, but the subsequent pressure will come from the supply side. There is a basis for spot - futures arbitrage. [10][12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a decline in an oscillatory manner. For arbitrage, buy spot delivery products and sell futures. For options, wait and see. [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 24,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 9,662 lots. The spot prices in different regions decreased. [16] - **Related Information**: Bahrain Aluminum and Mozal Aluminum have reduced production due to transportation interruptions. China's imports of unforged aluminum and aluminum products from January to February decreased year - on - year, while exports increased. The cancellation of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy may affect the orders of related factories. [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The situation in the Middle East is still tense, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. The reduction in aluminum smelting production in the Middle East and Mozambique continues, and there is a risk of economic weakness due to geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices. [20] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Related Information**: Bahrain Aluminum and Mozal Aluminum have reduced production due to transportation interruptions. The warehouse receipt volume of casting aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows certain data. [23] - **Trading Logic**: The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. There is a risk of economic weakness. The supply of scrap aluminum is gradually released, but the demand recovery in the peak season is slow, and high prices and price fluctuations suppress purchasing willingness. [24] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a short - term weak performance following the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [25][26] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 contract decreased by 2.26% to 23,345 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1.28 lots to 205,700 lots. The spot market in Shanghai showed that the downstream enterprises took advantage of the low - price to place orders, and the spot discount narrowed. [26] - **Related Information**: As of March 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased compared to previous periods. The downstream consumption recovery is slower than the arrival of smelter products. [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of refined zinc in China is increasing, while the demand recovery is insufficient, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. However, there is an expectation of overseas smelter production cuts due to rising energy prices, and the low LME zinc inventory provides some support for zinc prices. [29] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance in the short term. Wait for the price to stabilize and then go long at low prices. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [30] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2605 contract rose 0.79% to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index decreased by 11,100 lots to 133,000 lots. The actual shipment volume of recycled refined lead is limited, and downstream battery production enterprises are reluctant to accept the premium price. [31] - **Related Information**: As of March 12, the social inventory of lead ingots increased. The import window is open, and imported lead is increasing. [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in social inventory due to the delivery of goods by holders and the inflow of imported lead suppress the domestic lead market. However, the losses of recycled lead smelting enterprises are expanding, which provides some support for lead prices. [33] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, continue to hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss line to protect profits. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [35] Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price decreased by 130 to 17,255 US dollars/ton, the LME nickel inventory decreased by 174 to 283,740 tons, and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was - 206.69 US dollars/ton. [36] - **Important Information**: Greenmei has completed the rectification of the accident in Indonesia, and the production of MHP has resumed. The national economic data from January to February shows certain trends. [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in copper prices and the market's trading of the recession expectation after the sharp rise in oil prices lead to a general decline in the non - ferrous metal sector. Although Greenmei has resumed production, the high cost of MHP provides cost support for nickel prices. In the short term, the macro - situation dominates the market. [37] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: Due to the geopolitical tension in West Asia, an Indian stainless - steel company has raised its product prices. The supply of industrial gas is interrupted, and logistics costs have increased. [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas manufacturing is shrinking due to energy prices and supply issues, and some manufacturing orders are flowing back to China, but the fear of global economic recession still dominates the price trend. Stainless - steel prices are expected to follow the decline of nickel prices. [42] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the macro - situation to stabilize. For arbitrage, wait and see. [43] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,820 yuan/ton or 2.59%. The position increased by 253 lots to 78,500 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [43] - **Related Information**: NVIDIA expects high revenue from its new AI chips. Nebius and Meta have reached a cooperation agreement. The supply of helium, an important raw material for chip cooling, is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the impact of Indonesia's potential ban on tin exports is currently limited. China's imports of tin concentrates are increasing, but the production of refined tin in February decreased. The spot market is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory. [47] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect an oscillatory performance in the range due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and the weakening supply support from Myanmar's resumption of production. For options, wait and see. [48] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: An industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia has its environmental impact assessment file accepted. [49] - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of supply and demand, the production of organic silicon and polysilicon increased in March, and the production of industrial silicon also increased. The overall supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. The low - price shipment willingness of manufacturers is not strong due to cost considerations. [50] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct range trading. For arbitrage and options, there is currently no suitable strategy. [51][52][53] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: GlobalData predicts that the global renewable energy installed capacity will increase significantly by 2031, with photovoltaic installed capacity being a major contributor. [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polysilicon increased in March, and the silicon wafer production schedule also increased. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price strategy of manufacturers is divided, and the future price trend depends on whether the industry can maintain sales above the benchmark cost. [57] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect an oscillatory performance with insufficient liquidity, so wait and see. For arbitrage and options, there is currently no suitable strategy. [58][59][60] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: Tesla and LG Energy will invest in a battery factory in Michigan. An auction of lithium spodumene concentrate was completed. Rongbai Technology plans to adjust the equity structure of its South Korean subsidiary. [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The export of lithium mines from Zimbabwe will affect the domestic supply after May. The demand for batteries is high, and new production capacity of cathode materials will be put into operation in April. The supply and demand are marginally looser in March. Due to the external situation and regulatory environment, it is difficult for lithium prices to reach new highs, but there will be buying support if prices fall sharply. [62][64] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [65][66]