有色金属行业：贵金属避险溢价呈 现结构性上行，资源民族主义抬头 或加剧金属行业供给扰动 2026 年 3 月 2 日 看好/维持 有色金属 行业报告 ——美伊冲突点评 事件： 2026 年 2 月 28 日，美国联合以色列对伊朗发动军事打击。3 月 1 日， 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊被确认在美国和以色列的袭击中身亡，伊朗军队对美以 的反击仍在进行。同时，伊朗宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，根据国际邮轮流量监测 系统数据，该地区航运已陷入停滞状态。 从短期角度分析，市场对本次美伊冲突已部分计价但波动率市场呈现结构性放 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 -17.7% 16.4% 50.6% 84.7% 118.8% 152.9% 3/3 6/1 8/30 11/28 2/26 有色金属 沪深300 | 分析师：张天丰 | | | --- | --- | | 021-25102914 | zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480520100001 | | 研究助理：闵泓朴 | | | 021-65462553 | minhp-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注短线上行风险，低多 04、06 保护 10 空单 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | | 昨日成交 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1,224.4 | -1.43% | | 32,063 37,245 | | 1,071 | 0.86 | | 0.80 | | | EC2606 | 1,629.6 | -0.23% | | 4,540 17,087 | | 438 | 0.27 | | 0.35 | | | EC2610 | 1,161.0 | 0.01% | | 2,305 | 10,914 | 600 | 0.21 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ni 期货研究报告 原油-SC 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 2026 年 3 月 2 日 能化专题 中东战争爆发 能化溢价增强 核心观点 2026 年 2 月末，美伊军事冲突全面爆发，伊朗宣布正式关闭霍 尔木兹海峡，也门胡塞武装同步封锁曼德海峡，全球能源运输两大 核心通道陷入中断。霍尔木兹海峡承担全球 30%的海运原油贸易， 曼德海峡把控红海航线这一亚欧能源及商品运输要道，双海峡封锁 形成能源供应物理中断+全球航运体系瘫痪的双重冲击。 美伊冲突进一步升级，伊朗袭击沙特、阿联酋等产油国的石油 设施，或扩大封锁范围，导致原油供应缺口进一步扩大，油价超预 期上涨。同时油价暴涨推高全球通胀， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Global macro格局受四大重磅事件冲击，美以伊军事冲突成市场核心即时变量，需关注冲突烈度及对市场的影响，人民币汇率受央行政策和地缘冲突影响，短期或双向波动，长期升值趋势取决于国内经济和出口情况 [2][3] - 股指受两会和地缘政治局势影响，预计以短期情绪冲击为主，底部支撑强；国债存在上涨契机，但需关注市场环境；集运欧线受地缘冲突和船司挺价影响，预计震荡偏强 [6][7][9] - 碳酸锂短期预计在15 - 20万元/吨区间宽幅震荡，中长期价值支撑稳固；工业硅和多晶硅短期处于产能周期底部，需等待供需格局改善 [11][12][13] - 铝产业链受美伊冲突影响，铝价或震荡偏强，氧化铝震荡整理，铸造铝合金震荡偏强；铜价受库存和下游复工影响，上涨面临压力；锌价预计偏强震荡；镍不锈钢震荡偏强；锡价高位震荡；铅价震荡调整 [15][16][18] - 油料市场，二季度后大豆供应压力回归，菜粕或表现弱势；油脂市场受地缘冲突支撑，可寻找逢低看多机会 [26][27][28] - 燃料油期价有望强势冲高，沥青跟随成本上涨；铂金和钯金中长期牛市基础仍在，黄金和白银战略性看多 [30][32][34] - 纸浆和胶版纸期货可区间交易，纯苯或有低多机会；苯乙烯和LPG受地缘影响，成本支撑增强；甲醇受地缘冲突影响大；聚烯烃短期受情绪和成本驱动，PP基本面支撑强于PE [37][38][40] - 橡胶震荡回调，天胶中长期偏多，顺丁橡胶区间震荡；尿素受美伊战争影响，价格或上涨；玻璃纯碱基本面空间有限；丙烯受成本推动上涨 [50][51][54] - 螺纹和热卷受政策预期和高库存影响，短期内政策支撑盘面，但基本面偏弱；铁矿石供应压制价格，需求预期悲观；焦煤焦炭关注终端需求验证；硅铁和硅锰受消息面驱动上涨，但硅锰受高库存压制 [57][58][60] - 生猪现货持续下跌，可选择卖涨期权；棉花供需偏紧，建议回调布局多单；白糖基本面偏空，关注盘面能否站稳5300；鸡蛋短期窄幅震荡、稳中偏强；苹果关注节后消费和交割逻辑；红枣供需格局偏松，价格承压；原木可观望或低多 [65][66][76] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on the Middle East situation, including the Iran - US - Israel conflict, the impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Chinese government's meeting on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent one - sided appreciation expectations. Short - term exchange rate may show two - way fluctuations, and long - term appreciation depends on domestic economic recovery and export strength. Geopolitical conflicts may support the US dollar index [2][3] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the two sessions and geopolitical situation, short - term emotional shocks are expected, with strong bottom support [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is an opportunity for an increase, but the market environment needs to be monitored. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high prices in the short term [6][7][8] - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding behavior strengthen short - term support, but weak cargo volume limits the upside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9][10] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. Long - term value is supported by downstream demand, but risks such as price increases affecting terminal economy need to be noted [11][12] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Currently at the bottom of the production cycle, waiting for supply - demand pattern improvement. Photovoltaic has long - term development potential [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The US - Iran conflict may cause short - term price fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to buy call options for aluminum and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for alumina. Cast aluminum alloy may follow the trend of aluminum [15][16][17] - **Copper**: Affected by high inventory and slow downstream resumption, price increase is restricted. It is advisable to use calendar spread strategies or buy out - of - the - money call options [18][20] - **Zinc**: Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and the turning point needs to be observed [22] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The trend is slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to US tariff disturbances and Indonesian supply [22][23] - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the impact of risk aversion on the market needs to be noted [23][24] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and interval operations are recommended [25] Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The supply pressure of soybeans will return in the second quarter, and rapeseed meal may be weak [26] - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by geopolitical conflicts, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [26][27][28] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by supply shock, cost, and logistics, the futures price is expected to rise strongly [30] - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost of crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are dominant [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermented due to the Middle East geopolitical risk. The long - term bull market foundation remains, but position control is needed [32][33] - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to go long strategically and pay attention to economic data and policy expectations [34][35] Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp futures are bearish due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support. Offset paper futures are affected by multiple factors and are in a range - bound state [37][38] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and they are likely to follow the rise of crude oil [38][39] - **LPG**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the external market is strong and the internal market is weak. The focus is on the situation in the Middle East [39][40][41] - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact, and the supply and price are likely to be affected [41][42] - **Plastics and PP**: The cost support is strengthened by the Middle East conflict. PE is supply - strong and demand - weak in the short term, while PP has supply reduction expectations and stronger fundamental support [44][45] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and synthetic rubber is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply, demand, and inventory [50][74] - **Urea**: Affected by the US - Iran war, international and domestic prices may rise [51][52] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The fundamental space is limited, and price fluctuations are restricted [53][54] - **Propylene**: Driven by cost, the price is expected to rise, but the downstream acceptance needs to be observed [54][55] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by policy expectations and high inventory, the short - term policy supports the market, but the fundamental weakness limits the upside [57] - **Iron Ore**: The supply suppresses the price, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to be bearish but not to short [58][59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Enter the terminal demand verification period, and the real data is important. The price may face downward pressure if the supply recovers more than expected and the macro - sentiment weakens [60][61] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Driven by market rumors, silicon iron has a better fundamental situation, while silicon manganese is restricted by high inventory [61][62][63] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The spot price continues to decline, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [65] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to foreign trade policies and export progress [66][67][68] - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to whether the price can stand above 5300 [68][69] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and be slightly stronger in the short term, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70] - **Apples**: Pay attention to post - festival consumption and the delivery logic. The price may decline if the demand is weak [76][77] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure, likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [77][78] - **Logs**: The spot price has support, but the demand has not recovered significantly. Geopolitical factors may affect supply and cost. It is advisable to wait and see or go long at low prices [79]

Week10: MSK、MSC和YML沿用; OOCL环比+100; ONE和HMM环比+200。均值在2200美金, 折盘约1560点, Week11: MSK开舱1850美金 (环比-100)。 消息面 3月下宣涨: 3月1日, MSC发布涨价函3200美金。 相关新闻 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/3/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2604 | | 1224.4 | -0.94% | 349.1 | 32063 | | 37245 | 1071 | | | EC2605 | | 1405.1 | -0.69% | 168.4 | 160 | | 414 | 19 | | | EC2606 | | 1629.6 | 0.52% | -56.1 | 4540 | | 17087 | 438 | | | EC2607 | | 1836.9 | 1.37% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (2.24-2.27) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油继续受地缘因素影响震荡运行尾盘大幅走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶67.29美元，周涨1.48%；伦敦布伦特原油主 力期货价格收于每桶73.21美元，周涨2.77%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至502.4元/桶，周涨3.16%。周内前期，市场持续关注美伊局势的进展， 目前美伊双方已经进行两轮间接谈判，但仍未取得实质进展。一方面，伊朗和美国在日内瓦举行的会谈中就指导原则达成了"总体协议",并称 与美国的会谈是认真且富有建设性的，但另一方面，美国方面表示如果德黑兰不在数日内就其核活动达成协议，将 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-02原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2604： 1.基本面：以色列周日发动新一轮对德黑兰的袭击，伊朗则以更多导弹袭击作为回应，此前一天伊朗最高领 袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，使中东局势和全球经济陷入日益加深的不确定性；周日航运数据显示，在美以对伊朗 发动空袭导致该地区陷入动荡后，至少150艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡外的海湾公海水域抛锚停泊，另有数十艘 油轮停泊在该航运咽喉要道的另一侧；OPEC+周日同意小幅增产20.6万桶/日；偏多 2.基差：2月27日，阿曼原油现货价为71.39美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为70.80美元/桶，基差52.45元/ 桶，现货升水期 ...

氧化铝周报 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2026 年 3 月 2 日 地缘扰动情绪带动 氧化铝跟随偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 风险因素：矿端扰动，氧化铝集中减产 ⚫ 宏观面，美以军事打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡航运停 摆，地缘风险升级。矿端，进口矿几内亚方面新增 矿石产能稳步出货，供应存在增加预期。澳大利亚 方面虽受雨季影响，供应水平有所下降，但几内亚 供应增量尚可覆盖该部分缺口，整体来看进口矿 石供应仍显过剩。国内铝土矿市场暂未启动实质 性交易。山西、河南等地多数矿山仍处于停产状 态。按照行业惯例，一些矿山将于正月十五前后复 产，另有部分矿山会推迟至全国 ...

铜周报 地缘风险加剧，铜价延续反弹 核心观点及策略 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因美伊冲突升级地缘政治风险加 剧，全球市场避险情绪迅速升温。此外，市场聚焦下月沃 什听证会上能否捍卫美联储独立性及未来的货币政策路 径，特朗普最新10%的临时关税降低了中国运往美国的商 品关税，利好短期国内出口，而全球AI数据中心和老旧电 网系统的改造仍需要依赖大量的铜资源；基本面来看，矿 端供应偏紧格局延续，国内冶炼厂产量边际下滑，全球显 性库存继续上行，内贸现货转向小幅升水，近月盘面C结 构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2026 年 3 月 2 日 ⚫ 整体来看， ...

股指 文字早评 2026/03/02 星期一 宏观金融类 【行情资讯】 1、美军方称摧毁伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总部，伊朗多位军事指挥官确认死亡； 2、欧佩克 1 日发表声明说，8 个主要产油国决定 4 月日均增产 20.6 万桶，一艘试图通过霍尔木兹海峡 的油轮被击中； 3、DeepSeek 将于下周发布其最新的大模型 V4，并加速 AI 模型"推理"环节靠拢本土芯片； 4、OpenAI 签约五角大楼，美国加速人工智能军事化应用。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.08%/0.64%/3.75%/4.11%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：2.43%/3.14%/7.30%/6.57%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：5.55%/6.21%/12.76%/10.16%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.17%/-1.77%/-0.24%/2.28%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，人民币汇率强势升值带动外资流入，建议关注国内两会政策信号以 及战局转变，策略上仍是逢低做多的思路。 国债 【行情资讯】 【策略观点】 基本面看，1 月受春节错位因素影响，CPI 同比低于预期，而 P ...