Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and investment suggestions for each category [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have increased short - term upward pressure on oil prices, but inventory pressure and supply surplus limit the upside [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led to wide - range fluctuations in fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side pressure [22] - **Bitumen**: Oil price rebounds have not been fully followed by bitumen. Venezuelan oil supply disruptions may impact bitumen raw materials in the future [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With mixed US employment data and ongoing global geopolitical unrest, precious metals are challenging previous highs [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are affected by US employment data, geopolitical situations, and domestic production and inventory. An option strategy has been proposed [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are driven by funds, and there is a divergence from fundamentals. High profits may prompt aluminum plants to sell for hedging [5] - **Zinc**: Consumption is expected to be front - loaded in 2026, but the market may range - bound due to cost support and supply - side factors [8] - **Lead**: The market is range - bound, and attention should be paid to cost - related support [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of shock, with inventory changes and policy sentiment influencing prices [10] - **Tin**: LME tin prices have risen, and domestic prices are supported. Attention is on inventory changes [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, with supply - demand factors driving the market [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [13] - **Polysilicon**: A new policy has changed the trading logic, and prices may seek cost support [14] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are oscillating, with demand and inventory showing different trends. Steel mill profits are improving, and iron - water production is rising [15] - **Iron Ore**: The market has rebounded, but there are risks of high - level volatility due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a relatively strong and oscillating trend, with considerations for supply - demand and policy factors [17][18] - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: For both, it is recommended to buy on dips, considering supply - demand and policy impacts [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range as spring agricultural demand approaches [24] - **Methanol**: Import expectations are reduced, but high coastal inventories and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and a positive spread strategy may be considered in the medium - term [26] - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of consolidation due to cost and inventory factors [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Market sentiment varies, with supply - demand factors influencing prices [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may have short - term trading opportunities and long - term price increases. Caustic soda is oscillating, with supply - demand and profit factors at play [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, but cost support from oil prices exists. PX has a strong medium - term outlook [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market will be under pressure in the short - term and may improve in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is waiting for the USDA report. South American production expectations and weather are key factors, and prices may be weak [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The market is expected to oscillate, with attention on palm oil export tax policies and inventory [37] - **Canola & Canola Oil**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the focus on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: The futures contract is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with attention on sales progress and auctions [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Short - term price support may come from secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure exists [41] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The market is expected to adjust, with attention on supply - demand and policy factors [43] - **Sugar**: The market is oscillating, with differences in international and domestic production progress [44] - **Apples**: The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: The price is at a low level, and the market is recommended to be observed [46] - **Pulp**: The market is oscillating, and short - term upward potential is limited [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: A new policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles potentially outperforming [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the flattening of the yield curve [49]

2026年1月12日早盘，现货黄金强势拉涨，盘中首次突破4600美元/盎司，新年首月黄金价格已累计上涨280美元。截至发稿，金价有小幅回落。今日现货白 银同样大涨，盘中飙涨超5%，一度突破83美元。 今日，A股贵金属板块多只股票大涨。截至发稿，晓程科技涨超6%，湖南白银涨近4%，山东黄金涨超3%，招金黄金、西部黄金、山金黄金、中金黄金等跟 涨。 | | 13934 | 名称 | 法婦％V | 坝价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300139 | 晓程科技 | +6.25% | 35.87 | | 2 | 002716 | 湖南白银 | +3.67% | 8.19 | | 3 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | +3.43% | 45.26 | | ব | 000506 | 招金黄金 | +2.11% | 14.02 | | 5 | 601069 | 西部黄金 | +1.45% | 29.30 | | 6 | 000975 | 山金国际 | +1.57% | 25.84 | | 7 | 600489 | 中金黄金 | +1.28% | 25.25 | | 8 | ...

当日原油价格回落同样值得关注，加元与大宗商品挂钩，走势和原油紧密相关，油价走弱削弱加元支撑力，对美元/加元形成助力。 这一言论加剧投资者对美联储独立性的担忧，市场重新审视政策稳定性，推动美元从近期高点回落，对美元/加元形成下行压力。 近期美元整体疲软，2025年已创八年来最差年度表现，市场对美联储后续宽松政策本就存在分歧，政治因素介入进一步放大了这种分歧。 市场对美元并非单向看空，地缘政治风险发酵为其提供潜在支撑。美国总统特朗普周日表示，正考虑对伊朗骚乱采取包括潜在军事动作在内的应对措施。 这一表态叠加持续的俄乌冲突，推升全球地缘政治紧张局势。不确定性上升背景下，美元作为核心避险货币有望获得买盘支撑。市场对美联储更激进宽松的 预期减弱，也缓解了美元下行压力。 美元/加元货币对结束连续九个交易日升势，遭遇抛售压力。 上周五该货币对触及1.3920高位，创下12月5日以来峰值，这一水平成为短期阻力。 日内美元全面走软推动汇率下跌，最后一小时现货价格跌破200日简单移动平均线关键支撑，终结此前升势。 汇率走势转折与美联储政策预期变化密切相关。美联储主席鲍威尔近期表态称，针对央行的刑事指控威胁源于其依据公众最大利益制 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2) Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. 3) Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the Friday night session, the main price of bottle chips rose by 118 yuan to 6140 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle - grade bottle chips was 6030 yuan/ton (-5), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6080 yuan/ton (-10). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3144 lots to 63,700 lots, and short positions increased by 3102 lots to 65,600 lots [1]. Important Information - **Supply and cost - profit**: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 334,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5592 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Export volume**: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [1]. - **December 2025 production**: In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]. - **Crude oil price**: The market believes that the instability of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran situations has increased, and the potential supply risk has risen, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.36 dollars/barrel to 59.12 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.35 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.18%. The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 7.8 to 425.8 yuan/ton, and rose 11.9 to 437.7 yuan/ton in the night session [1]. - **Military news**: According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5th, open - source flight tracking data and observations from ground observers showed that a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently. The number of military aircraft dispatched in a short period and their take - off locations have sparked speculation about possible special operations in the region by the US military in the future [1]. Market Logic - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. Trading Strategy - The reference range for the main contract is 6000 - 6280 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to wait and see or go long on dips [1].

摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1025.66元/克，较前一交易日上涨13.99美元，涨 幅1.38%，日内强势冲高。当日开盘价为1011.66元/克，最高价为1031.87元/克，最低价为1011.28元/ 克。 今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1025.66元/克，较前一交易日上涨13.99美元，涨幅 1.38%，日内强势冲高。当日开盘价为1011.66元/克，最高价为1031.87元/克，最低价为1011.28元/克。 【要闻速递】 本周五，美国最高法院将迎来"判决日"，可能就特朗普多数关税政策的合法性作出裁决。Polymarket交 易数据显示，市场认为支持特朗普关据《华尔街日报》报道，美国官员透露，特朗普定于周二听取应对 伊朗抗议活动的选项简报，显示其正考虑兑现多次威胁——就伊朗当局镇压示威者的行为对该政权实施 惩戒。 官员表示，特朗普将与高级行政官员召开会议讨论下一步行动，可能包括加强线上反政府信息传播、对 伊朗军事及民用目标部署秘密网络武器、追加制裁乃至军事打击。预计国务卿鲁比奥、防长赫格塞思、 参联会主席凯恩上将出席会议。由于审议尚处早期，特朗普暂不会做 ...

中国基金报记者 张舟 另外，2025年全球央行多次增持黄金，以增强资产组合的多元性与稳定性，这促使国际黄金价格大涨。与之相反，美元指数从2025年年初开始持续震荡下 跌，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比也一跌再跌。 现货白银涨幅扩大至4%，最高价报84美元/盎司，创历史新高。截至发稿报83.527美元/盎司。 | < W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | | Q | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | | | | 83.527 | | 昨结 | | 79.764 | 总量 | | | | 0 | | | +3.763 | +4.72% 开盘 | | | 80.697 | 现手 | | | | 0 | | | 最高价 | 84.000 | 持 仓 | | 0 | 外 | 豊 | | | 0 | | | 最低价 | 79.907 | 墙 | せ | 0 | 内 | 물 | | | 0 | | | 关时 | 目K 周Ｋ 五日 | | | | ...

1月12日，本周一早间，贵金属价格开盘便直线飙升：现货黄金价格上涨逾2%，首次站上4600美元大 关，新年首月已累涨280美元；现货白银价格飙升超5%，向上突破83美元，创下历史新高。 这一涨势得益于地缘政治风险上升导致避险需求增加，同时，上周五糟糕的非农就业数据也增强了市场 对美联储降息的预期。 此外，以英国和德国为首的一些欧洲国家正在讨论加强在格陵兰岛军事存在的计划，以向美国总统特朗 普表明欧洲国家对北极安全的重视。知情人士称，德国将提议设立一个北约联合特派团来保护北极地 区。 此前，美国在对委内瑞拉的行动中抓获委总统马杜罗及其夫人，并将他们带离委内瑞拉。 在全球范围内的重重不确定性和地缘政治风险，推高了黄金等传统避险资产的价格。 地缘政治风险上升 据央视新闻，美国官员称，美国总统特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案。包括宣布向中东派遣航母战 斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。 据悉，近期美国政府内部已召开初步会议，"讨论支持（伊朗）抗议活动的方式"，其中包括美军对伊朗 政府目标进行军事打击，不过"特朗普政府内部许多人认为，现阶段采取重大军事行动将破坏抗议活 动"。 消息称，特朗普正在考虑所有选项，但尚未做出决定 ...

与此同时，伊朗国内局势持续动荡。抗议活动引发的政局不确定性，直接触发了市场的避险需求。地缘 风险升温时，投资者往往转向黄金等传统"安全港"。这种由不安驱动的买盘，与降息预期形成的金融属 性利好相互叠加，形成共振。 白银价格同样创下历史新高，延续上周近10%的涨势；钯金与铂金同步走强。这显示当前资金并非单独 追逐黄金，而是对整个贵金属板块进行价值重估。 黄金在过去一年已积累显著涨幅，但资金并未急于撤离。部分资产管理机构选择继续持有，这反映出对 黄金长期价值的认可。除了短期因素，对美元信用的长期审视也在推动黄金成为战略性配置资产。 周一早盘，国际金价突破每盎司4580美元关口。这并非孤立事件，背后交织着经济预期与地缘政治的双 重叙事。 上周美国非农就业数据不及预期，市场对美联储延续降息步伐的预判进一步强化。对于黄金这类不生息 资产，利率走低预期降低了持有成本，吸引力自然上升。自去年下半年美联储连续三次降息以来，市场 已为更宽松的货币环境做好准备。 黄金创下新高，是多重叙事共同作用的结果：货币政策预期、地缘政治风险、长期资产配置逻辑转变， 三者交织。金价波动如同一面镜子，映照出全球资本在增长与风险间的复杂权衡。当经 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格上涨 60 元至 5516 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 | | | | | 格 5335 元/吨（环比-5），山东地区现货价格 5223 元/吨（环比+11）。持仓方面， | | | | | 多头持仓减少 240 手至 1.95 万手，空头持仓减少 377 至 2.5 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8 万吨，较上期库存 30.0 万吨 | | | | | 上升 1.8 万吨，环 ...

来源：汇金网 周一亚洲时段，黄金价格（XAU/USD）一度升至约4600美元附近，刷新历史最高纪录。在全球不确定性加剧的背 景下，避险资金持续流入黄金市场，同时市场对美国年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支撑。 地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事选项，此前伊 朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。 与此同时，欧洲地缘安全议题同样引发市场关注。英国和德国正讨论在格陵兰地区加强军事存在，以显示其对北 极安全问题的重视。 多重地缘政治变量交织，使全球市场避险情绪维持在高位。美联储政策预期提供额外支撑：美国最新公布的就业 数据表现分化，也进一步增强了市场对美联储未来降息的押注。 数据显示，12月非农就业人数仅增加5万人，低于市场预期；失业率则小幅回落至4.4%。就业增长放缓，使投资 者认为货币政策存在进一步转向宽松的空间。在低利率环境下，持有无息资产的机会成本下降，这通常对黄金价 格构成利好。 市场接下来将重点关注即将公布的美国CPI通胀数据，以判断通胀回落是否为降息创造更明确的条件。 从日线结构来看，黄金价 ...