Core Points - Investors are closely monitoring the ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted for 35 days and is approaching the record length set from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019 [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased by 2.2 basis points to 4.085% [3] - The ISM manufacturing index for October was reported at 48.7%, below the expected 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from September [3] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Insights - The lack of key economic reports due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty among investors, who are now looking to the ADP private employment report for insights into the U.S. economy [3] - Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that the absence of critical economic data has heightened uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and risks [3] - Fed Governor Cook indicated that risks related to employment and inflation have increased, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts at the upcoming December meeting [3][4] Market Reactions and Global Context - Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the uncertainty of a December rate cut have caused market anxiety [4] - European Central Bank officials are advocating for a cautious approach, suggesting that premature adjustments to monetary policy could lead to market volatility [6] - In the UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced plans to increase taxes in the upcoming autumn budget, addressing public finance pressures [6] Treasury Issuance and Debt Levels - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a 6-week short-term bond worth $95 billion, with a 17-week short-term bond issuance planned for the following day [9] - As of October 31, the total U.S. federal debt has remained above $38 trillion for seven consecutive days, reaching a historical high of over $38.10 trillion on October 30 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, announced that the upcoming autumn budget on November 26 will focus on controlling inflation and creating conditions for the Bank of England to lower key interest rates [1][2] Group 1: Budget and Economic Policy - The autumn budget aims to control government debt while ensuring public service spending [1] - Reeves emphasized that her decisions will focus on reducing inflation to support economic growth and improve living costs for the public [1] - There is a possibility of increasing household taxes, as many economists believe that under constrained fiscal space, tax hikes may be the only viable option to achieve debt reduction, maintain public services, and stabilize the macroeconomy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The market widely expects the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% during the meeting on November 7 [1] - Despite recent weak economic data opening the door for potential rate cuts, most economists believe policymakers will wait for more sustained evidence of cooling inflation and details from the autumn budget [2] - Current UK inflation is still nearly double the 2% target, leading to a cautious stance from the Bank of England [2] - Barclays and Goldman Sachs suggest that policymakers might consider a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to recent disappointing inflation, employment, and output data, although this expectation is not mainstream [2] - Investors are currently betting that the December 18 meeting will be a more likely window for rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut rising to nearly 60% [2] - The Bank of England faces challenges related to "data dependence" and "policy coordination," with short-term interest rate paths being influenced not only by inflation trends but also by the clarity of fiscal positions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that excluding tariff impacts, inflation is close to the 2% policy target, and the trend of a cooling labor market remains unchanged, supporting the logic for interest rate cuts [1][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline prediction for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, driven by the ongoing cooling of the labor market [3][11]. - The September dot plot indicates that most committee members view rate cuts as the default option, with no signs of improvement in the labor market [5]. - Despite Fed Chair Powell's hawkish signals, the consensus reflected in the dot plot still points towards rate cuts, as there is no evidence of labor market improvement [5][11]. Group 2: Impact of Government Shutdown - Even if the government shutdown ends next week, the incremental data available to the Fed before the December meeting is likely to be weak, affecting employment reports for October and November [6][7]. - The reliability of data as a signal will be diminished due to the government shutdown, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [7]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Looking beyond 2025, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the policy path will be more dispersed with numerous intersecting factors influencing it [9]. - The recent announcement by Amazon regarding layoffs due to AI highlights the potential for a weakening labor market despite improved productivity, suggesting lower neutral interest rates [9]. - The market's pricing around terminal rates has been fluctuating around 3%, but significant uncertainty exists around this level [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak, and copper prices oscillated yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term sharp increases restrain demand. The subsequent focus is on marginal changes in demand and Sino - US tariff situations, with the main contract supported at 86000 - 86500 [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the industry's profit space has shrunk significantly, and about 30% of production capacity is facing losses. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a callback to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Alumina - It is expected that the alumina price will continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The main contract is expected to be in a weak position. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply in Guinea, domestic environmental policies, and inventory changes [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus is on scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a squeeze on LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate strongly, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 22300 - 23000 [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000. The subsequent focus is on the RKAB approval in Indonesia in 2026 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. The subsequent focus is on macro expectations and steel mill supply [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton. The current variable lies in whether there will be new information from the mining end [17]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the SMM A00 aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%; the aluminum profile production rate was 53.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of alumina in Guangxi was 3010 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 18.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; the electrolytic aluminum plant's raw material inventory increased by 2.2 million tons week - on - week [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day; the SMM East China ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the SMM 1 tin premium was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; the SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%; the refined nickel import volume was 38164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 78800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%; the lithium carbonate demand was 126961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [17].

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，澳洲联储主席布洛克表示，本次议息会议未考虑降息；可能不会再降息，也可能会再降息一 些；未考虑加息；通胀仍存在很多不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements after the October meeting surprised the market, but Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in December due to the ongoing cooling of the labor market [1][2][7] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Goldman Sachs expects that even if the government shutdown ends next week, the incremental data available before the December meeting is likely to be weak, supporting the case for a rate cut [2][4] - Powell's hawkish signals after the meeting indicated that monetary policy is not on a preset path, and committee members have differing views on the pace of rate cuts, which caught the market off guard [2][3] - The dot plot from September suggests that most committee members view rate cuts as the default option, with no signs of improvement in the labor market [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Employment - The government shutdown is expected to negatively impact employment data, with delayed resignation data affecting the October employment report and potentially the November data as well [4] - The reliability of the data as a signal will be diminished due to the government shutdown, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4] - Goldman Sachs believes that betting on a rate cut in December will prove to be a good opportunity, but suggests waiting for a better entry point due to the lack of immediate catalysts for a market reversal [4] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - Looking beyond 2025, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the policy path will be more dispersed with numerous intersecting factors [5] - The recent announcement by Amazon regarding layoffs due to AI highlights that, despite productivity improvements, the labor market may weaken while economic growth remains strong, potentially leading to lower neutral interest rates [5] - Although the market has stabilized around a terminal rate of approximately 3%, Goldman Sachs notes significant uncertainty surrounding this level [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy may be experiencing recession in certain sectors due to high interest rates, prompting calls for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that while the overall economic condition is good, some industries are facing recession [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell downplayed expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to criticism from government officials [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, with only two out of twelve committee members opposing the decision [1] - Fed Governor Stephen Mihal stated that failure to quickly lower interest rates could lead to an economic recession [1]

各位老铁，今早我刚把热豆浆端上桌，手机就弹了三条财经新闻，看得我赶紧放下筷子——深圳水贝的黄金商家说"早上930元/克，下午就飙到991元"， 周大福一天涨了61元/克；还有DDR5存储芯片，一周暴涨25%，三大原厂直接暂停报价；最没想到的是债券ETF，今年连破六个"千亿"，现在都冲到7000 亿了。这一早的市场跟开盲盒似的，咱今天不整虚的，就用我20年跑财经口线的经验，跟大伙唠唠哪些是真机会，哪些得留心。 还有个容易被忽略的亮点：债券ETF连破六个"千亿"，现在都7000亿了。好多基金公司的朋友跟我吐槽"后悔早几年没布局"，今年新增的规模就占了 70%，可见大家现在多求稳。有老铁问"这玩意会不会超过股票ETF？"理论上有可能，毕竟债券波动小，适合不想担风险的投资者，但得看两点：一是管 理成本高不高，二是主动管理型债券基金的业绩能不能打。我给咱中长线投资者提个醒：如果觉得股市波动大，不妨配点债券ETF当"压舱石"，不用多， 占仓位20%就行，能稳住整个 portfolio。 先说说最扎眼的黄金。我当年跑黄金市场时，水贝的老杨就跟我说"金价跳涨时，柜台越热闹越得冷静"。现在倒好，品牌金店从1198元/克涨到12 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Federal Reserve officials are signaling potential interest rate cuts, with Stephen Miran advocating for a 50 basis point reduction if economic data aligns with expectations [4][5] - Lisa Cook supports recent rate cuts and is open to further reductions, but has not made a decision regarding December's meeting [6][8] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is currently at 67.3%, while maintaining the current rate stands at 32.7% [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 48.7, indicating continued contraction in factory activity for the eighth consecutive month [11][12] - The report highlights that 12 manufacturing sectors are experiencing contraction, particularly in textiles, apparel, and furniture [12] - The prices paid index has dropped to 58, the lowest level this year, suggesting easing inflationary pressures [12][13] Group 3: Stock Market Movements - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing slightly up, while the Dow Jones fell [15][16] - Amazon's stock surged nearly 6% after announcing a $38 billion deal with OpenAI, marking a significant milestone in the cloud computing sector [15] - Despite the S&P 500 closing in the green, over 400 stocks declined during the trading session, indicating underlying market weakness [16][17]

每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21420，基差-180，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌4594吨至 113574吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价偏强运行 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 数据来源：Wind 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 ...