朋友在钢铁行业工作，长期做期货，有一个产业界的圈子。 周二晚给我打电话，说白银和铜价已经背离产业基础太远了，必定崩溃，他打算要做空。 我就是很坚定的说，逆势做空风险非常大，会崩溃，但你不一定能坚持到崩的时候，还是不 要冒险 。 他建议我也做做期货，和股票平滑收益， 我也说这个风险大，做不来。 这两天白银果然大跌， 也不知道朋友有没有真的去做空， 但是心理很内疚和忐忑，不知道是 不是耽误朋友赚钱。 也不好去问朋友。 以后再也不去自以为是的劝诫别人了。 科立瓦兰多 朋友问我，我一般回:说的有道理，可以尝试，不过要注意风险，仓位别太重，杠杆低一点， 钱是赚不完的，但有可能亏完。 给满认可和情绪价值。 这样他亏钱时，会请我吃烧烤，感谢我提醒他注意风险。 这样他赚钱时。。。 eaglex 投资不要聊具体操作 可以聊思路 聊观念 聊到底赚什么钱 听了你的建议赚了 对方会认为是自己的功劳 毕竟最后自己拿的主意 听了你的建议亏了 对方会认为是你的问题 没听你的建议赚了 对方觉得你也不过如此 纸上谈兵而已 没听你的建议亏了 对方觉得你太坏了 故意看笑话 知道会亏也不拦着自己些 逆势者 最惨的是你朋友没听你的话2万8空了，周四晚 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 2月3日，美联储在降息，欧央行也在降息，只有澳洲联储在加息。 今日11：30，澳洲联储公布利率决议结果，加息25基点，基准利率从3.6%升高至3.85%。这是澳洲联储 2023年11月份以来的第一次加息，也是开年首个加息的中央银行。 政策声明中提到：私人需求的增长速度超过了预期，产能压力也比之前评估的要大，劳动力市场状况也 略显紧张。 据此判断，无论是通胀还是就业，都已经偏离澳洲联储的预期，加息势在必行。美国面临的经济状况是 通胀稳定但就业疲软，所以谨慎降息提振就业是主要手段。澳大利亚的通胀并不稳定，并且上升潜力较 强，一次加息无法起到遏制效果，2026年或有多次加息动作。 澳洲联储宣布加息后的30分钟，AUDUSD从0.6964直线拉升至0.7025，涨幅61基点，远超预期。澳洲联 储和美联储货币政策的背离，是驱动澳元升值的核心因素。 日本央行也在加息，但日元在加息过程中持续贬值，因为日本的利率绝对值在加息后仍偏低 （0.75%），即便加息也无法有效吸引国际资金流入。澳洲联储的基准利率已经相对偏高，3.85%的利 率已经高于美联储3.75%的利率上限，对国际资金的吸引力较强。 澳 ...

经历昨日沃什"缩表"交易扰动后，今日A股市场探底回升，市场情绪快速修复，沪指、创业板指均涨超 1%，深成指涨超2%，科创综指涨幅2.44%领涨主要宽基，沪深两市成交额2.54万亿，较上一个交易日缩 量405亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4800只个股上涨。从板块来看，商业航天、太空光伏 概念爆发，半导体设备、化工板块表现活跃，贵金属探底回升，AI应用方向也表现活跃。 近期A股市场波动较大，昨日一度出现恐慌性抛售，主要由多因素叠加所致：1、市场预期层面，投资 者正快速评估新提名美联储主席凯文·沃什的"降息+缩表"政策主张，引发金融市场紧缩担忧； 责任编辑：刘生傲 经历昨日沃什"缩表"交易扰动后，今日A股市场探底回升，市场情绪快速修复，沪指、创业板指均涨超 1%，深成指涨超2%，科创综指涨幅2.44%领涨主要宽基，沪深两市成交额2.54万亿，较上一个交易日缩 量405亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4800只个股上涨。从板块来看，商业航天、太空光伏 概念爆发，半导体设备、化工板块表现活跃，贵金属探底回升，AI应用方向也表现活跃。 近期A股市场波动较大，昨日一度出现恐慌性抛售，主要由多因素叠加所致：1 ...

美国总统特朗普在上周五提名前美联储理事沃什在鲍威尔任期于5月结束后出任美联储主席，使这位经常批评美联储的经济学者有机会在白宫希望加强对利 率决策掌控之际，将其货币政策"框架变革"理念付诸实践。市场认为沃什倾向支持降息，但不会像部分其他候选人那样主张更激进地放松政策。特朗普通过 社交媒体宣布了该提名，提名仍需获得美国参议院确认。 加强对利率决策的掌控：在特朗普希望加强对美联储影响的背景下，沃什若上任，美联储政策的独立性可能面临新的挑战，其决策可能被市场解读为与白宫 意愿关联度更高。 对美联储降息前景与整体政策的影响 降息路径或更平缓、更不确定：市场需重新定价，降息的启动时点和幅度可能不及此前部分"鸽派"预期，变得更为谨慎和依赖数据。 货币政策框架面临调整：若进行"框架变革"，将引入新的政策不确定性，可能增加市场在短期内理解和适应新规则的难度。 独立性与政治压力：沃什与特朗普的关系，可能使市场担忧美联储的政治独立性受损，长期将削弱市场对其政策稳定性和可预测性的信任。 | BALLER | 核心影响机别 | 短期预期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | "帘慎容松"预期 + 框架不确定性 → ...

文/中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长 盛松成 考虑到货币政策与财政政策的协同，以及我国消费和投资利率弹性有限， 降准 的适配性 或优于 降 息 。未 来 货币 政策 面临 的内 外约 束有 望进 一 步缓 解，我国降准、降息仍有空间，但需等待更有利的时机。 在1月15日国务院新闻办召开的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行宣布了货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展的增量政策措施，包括以结构性"降息"和定向 工具扩容为核心，引导金融机构降低对实体经济重点领域的融资成本。央行降低结构性货币政策工具利率，与典型意义上的降息有明显区别，但就目前经 济形势所需要的政策支持来说，是更为精准和适宜的。 根据传统理论和各国操作，货币政策基本是总量调控工具，但长期以来在我国，货币政策实际上大都是总量调控和结构性调控相互配合。尤其是近年来， 我国结构性货币政策工具不断创新，发挥重要作用，是支持经济薄弱环节和重点领域、推动经济高质量发展的有效手段。 在结构性货币政策工具的运用中，我们一般更加关注对特定领域的激励作用。其中，既有"量"的投放，也有"价"的激励。过去我们更多通过调整额度， 从"量"的方面引导银行信贷投放方向，而 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《假期消费温和增长，文旅消费多元扩 容》 - 2026.01.05 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：降息或先行，缩表存约束 ⚫ 核心观点： 上周五，美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主 席。沃什曾于 2006-2011 年担任美联储理事，八年前曾接受特朗普总 统面试，与鲍威尔角逐美联储主席职位，但最终未能当选。任职美联 储理事期间，沃什整体立场偏鹰，并对美联储过度扩张资产负债表持 批评态度，但于近期转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。市 场将其政策倾向概括为"降息+缩表"。提名消息公布后，美元阶段性 走强，贵金属在多头获利了结下显著回落。 当前 FOMC 政策决议由 12 名成员投票形成。根据《联邦储备法》， FOMC 主席由委员会成员自行选举产生，理论上可以与美联储主席并非 同一人，尽管这一情形在历史上尚未出现。主席在决策机制中仅 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not available in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold and silver market will become more volatile due to factors such as the frequency of global black - swan events, rising US re - inflation pressure, and the rapid transmission of AI's generalized cost [2][4] - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver is mainly due to large - scale profit - taking after long - term sharp rises, and their pricing is influenced by liquidity, AI narrative, and cryptocurrency funds [7][11] - Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Fed Chair doesn't change the dovish policy expectation, and the Fed's decision on interest rates depends more on economic performance and Trump's political will [14] - The US stock market is under pressure of intensified K - shaped differentiation, facing risks from fiscal policy, price increases in production materials, and the sustainability of the AI narrative [29] Summary by Relevant Sections I. The Turbulent Gold and Silver Market - The recent sharp decline of gold and silver has no essential causal relationship with Warsh's nomination but is mainly due to profit - taking after sharp rises. In 2025 and 2026, the upward cycle of gold was compressed, leading to a subsequent sharp correction [7] - Gold and silver show obvious "MEME - like" features, with their prices driven by liquidity, AI narrative, and influenced by cryptocurrency funds. Silver is more volatile than gold [11] - The current market's upward momentum is related to the strength of the AI trend. Gold, silver, and the US stock market are boosted by the AI narrative, while cryptocurrencies are under pressure [13] II. Kevin Warsh's Nomination: A Two - way Attraction between Speculation and Pragmatism - Warsh's nomination doesn't change the dovish policy expectation. The Fed's interest - rate decision depends on economic performance and Trump's political will. Trump wants a controllable Fed Chair to address the "affordability problem" [14] - It's uncertain how much of Warsh's "interest - rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" is based on his true judgment of the macro - economy, considering his past inaccurate inflation and policy stances [21] - Warsh's balance - sheet reduction proposal faces "objective" constraints. From a quantitative and qualitative perspective, the current US dollar liquidity is only slightly above the sufficient level, and excessive balance - sheet reduction may lead to a repeat of the 2019 repo crisis [24] - For the Trump administration, an interest - rate cut is urgent, while balance - sheet reduction is an idealized long - term goal [28] III. The US Stock Market under Pressure of Intensified K - shaped Differentiation - The sharp decline in gold and silver warns assets relying on liquidity and the AI narrative. The US stock market is facing intensified K - shaped differentiation, with the lower end of the "K" being more vulnerable [29] - During the earnings season, the performance of US stocks varies. Investors' focus has shifted to liquidity. The Fed is likely to ensure stock - market stability and provide sufficient liquidity for the AI narrative [29] - Fiscal risks, such as the potential government shutdown due to political conflicts over immigration regulation, are destabilizing factors for the US stock market. Price increases in production materials like electricity and storage chips may lead to re - inflation and squeeze corporate profits [29][30] - The continuation of the AI narrative depends on continuous monetary and fiscal support and the absence of a significant economic recession. The economic "K - shaped" gap is widening, as shown by the profit growth of AI - related industries and the increasing corporate layoffs [31] - The future of the US stock market depends on Warsh's ability to balance inflation and political expansion needs after taking office in June. If fiscal risks and inflation rebound resonate, the current calm in the US stock market may be broken [35]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term logic of US dollar credit remains unchanged, but the underlying capital flows, asset preference shifts, and leveraged trading have never ceased. The frequent occurrence of global black swan events has led to a reduction in risk appetite, while rising inflationary pressures in the US have tightened interest rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a resonance of these factors at some point [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is not fundamentally caused by the nomination of Kevin Warsh but is more of a coincidental catalyst that triggered emotional volatility. The core driving force behind the decline is large-scale profit-taking following significant price increases, leading to a chain reaction of deleveraging [5]. - Historically, significant price increases in gold (20%-30%) typically require about six months to digest, but the current cycle has been compressed to a monthly level. The rapid price increases have led to a situation where the market must undergo a severe correction to alleviate overbought pressures [5][6]. - The volatility in gold and silver prices exhibits clear "MEME" characteristics, with pricing no longer solely dependent on "de-dollarization" but driven by liquidity and AI narratives. The demand for hedging has caused gold prices to move in tandem with US stocks, while silver has seen even greater volatility due to its dual role as a financial asset and an industrial demand driven by AI [6]. Group 2: AI and Economic Interactions - The current market's upward momentum is primarily driven by the strength of the AI trend, with both US stocks and precious metals benefiting from this narrative. In contrast, cryptocurrencies have shown weakness due to their disconnection from the AI narrative and competition for resources with the AI industry [8]. - The extreme demand for electricity and computing power from the AI industry has directly impacted cryptocurrency mining costs, leading traditional mining companies to pivot towards investments in computing power centers, thereby increasing the operational costs of cryptocurrencies [8]. - Regardless of who becomes the Federal Reserve Chair, gold and silver may experience significant declines due to previous rapid price increases and the requirement for exchanges to raise reserve requirements, leading to profit-taking and deleveraging [8][9]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Political Influences - Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair does not alter the dovish policy expectations. The market's insensitivity to his nomination is reflected in the stable interest rate cut expectations and the performance of long-term US Treasury bonds [8][9]. - The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts will depend more on economic performance and political will rather than the change in leadership. Warsh's focus on inflation risks and previous opposition to quantitative easing may not align with current economic realities [9][12]. - The current liquidity levels in the dollar market are slightly above adequate levels, and excessive balance sheet reduction could lead to a repeat of the 2019 repo crisis, which the Federal Reserve aims to avoid [12]. Group 4: Fiscal Risks and Economic Outlook - Fiscal risks are emerging as significant instability factors, with political conflicts over immigration regulations complicating budget coordination, potentially leading to government shutdowns. This political maneuvering could create liquidity risks that are more damaging than monetary policy changes [16]. - Rising electricity prices driven by AI demand and significant price increases in key components like storage chips are beginning to affect consumer electronics and durable goods, posing new challenges to purchasing power and potentially reigniting inflation risks [16][17]. - The sustainability of the AI narrative relies on continuous monetary and fiscal support to counteract rising costs and the absence of a significant economic downturn. The profitability of AI-related sectors remains high, but many companies are resorting to layoffs as a cost-control measure, exacerbating economic disparities [17][20].

Group 1 - The recent comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic have shifted attention back to the direction of Federal Reserve policy and its decision-making process [1] - Bostic emphasized that the Fed's decisions are not solely dependent on the chair but require building trust and demonstrating leadership to unify committee opinions, which often takes time [1] - The collective nature of the Fed's decision-making process is often overlooked by the market, suggesting that personnel changes may not directly lead to policy shifts [1] Group 2 - Bostic clearly opposes recent interest rate cuts, arguing that inflation risks are not fully resolved and the current economy shows resilience, with a stable labor market [3] - He warned that prematurely loosening monetary policy could hinder the return of inflation to the 2% target, aligning with the recent FOMC decision to maintain interest rates [3] - Market expectations have shifted towards maintaining high interest rates, with futures data indicating a decreased probability of rate cuts in March, reflecting investor digestion of the Fed's signals [3] Group 3 - Regardless of the next chair's selection, the threshold for the Fed to shift towards rate cuts in the short term remains high [4] - The direction of policy will depend on the evolution of inflation data and economic performance, as well as the ability of the FOMC to reach a consensus [4] - The Fed's decision-making mechanism indicates that policy adjustments often lag behind data changes and must balance multiple viewpoints, particularly during inflation management [4]

特朗普提名沃什出任下届美联储主席后，市场迅速押注更鹰派的资产负债表政策，但高盛认为市场可能 误判。 华尔街见闻提及，1月30日，特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。消息公布后，长 期债券收益率小幅上涨，美元反弹，贵金属重挫。市场似乎正为其"鹰派"的资产负债表观点定价。 但近期，高盛交易和研究团队纷纷就沃什进行深度分析，认为市场可能再次误判了新美联储主席的实际 立场。 高盛外汇策略师Mike Cahill提醒，仅凭沃什此前在美联储的言论判断其政策取向是错误的，他指出： 我们知道，至少表示愿意降息是他获得这份工作的先决条件。 高盛美债交易员BROWN表示，曲线陡峭化和互换利差收窄的交易已经充分计价，沃什关于资产负债表 的鹰派言论不太可能转化为重启量化紧缩政策。他说： 这对风险资产破坏性太大。 市场习惯性地误读新任美联储主席的初始立场，而每位近期前任都在上任第一年出现过显著的"误 导"。投资者正在经历又一次对新任美联储主席的"误判"周期，需要时间让市场适应新的沟通风格。 高盛经济学家Mericle：缩表难以推进，制度框架已成既定事实 高盛经济学家David Mericle梳理了沃什的核心政策立场。 ...