在美国各项经济数据释放信号不一致、关税政策对通胀影响仍然不明的背景下，美联储能否顶住政治压 力，维持货币政策独立性？特朗普任命"影子主席"的做法能否左右降息前景？为何特朗普突然紧盯翻修 案？投资者又该如何交易布局呢？就这些问题，第一财经专访了瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔 晓。 特朗普提名"影子主席"作用有限 崔晓对第一财经分析称，"从法理层面来讲，如果因为特朗普仅仅因为与鲍威尔在利率问题上意见不一 致，就想解雇他是完全不可能的，因为之前最高法院的案子已经再次强化了，美联储是一个独立机 构。"如果特朗普"因故"要解雇鲍威尔，只能利用翻修案，但整个过程也会非常混乱和棘手，因为翻修 案这个事情是否严重到足以构成"因故"中的"故"，需要由白宫先提交相关诉讼，然后由一层层法院审 核，最终由高等法院裁决。在整个漫长的裁决过程中，鲍威尔仍有权留任美国联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）理事。并且，FOMC主席由谁担任是由FOMC成员决定的，凭借鲍威尔和FOMC成员的关 系，他们也会继续支持鲍威尔在此期间继续担任主席。鲍威尔本人也曾表态，除非他去世，否则没有任 何事情能阻碍他完成任期。 根据1913年的《联邦储备法》第10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential successors to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are under close scrutiny by investors and strategists, with market reactions likely influenced by the perceived alignment of these candidates with President Trump's views [1][4]. Candidate Analysis - Christopher Waller is seen as the top candidate for the Fed chair position, and his appointment could lead to positive market reactions due to continuity in leadership [1][3][5]. - Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are also considered potential nominees, but their close ties to Trump may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to negative market responses [1][9]. Market Expectations - Investors expect the next Fed chair to be a loyal supporter of Trump with a dovish stance, which could influence market dynamics [2]. - The market's reaction may vary based on how closely candidates are perceived to align with Trump's policies, with a stronger alignment likely resulting in negative impacts on U.S. assets [4][9]. Policy Continuity - Waller's support for immediate rate cuts and his flexible approach during his tenure at the Fed suggest he could maintain the current management style, which may be welcomed by the market [6][5]. - Analysts believe that if Hassett is nominated, it could lead to rising long-term Treasury yields and a sell-off in the dollar due to concerns over the Fed's independence [9]. Independence Concerns - The independence of the Federal Reserve remains a central concern for investors, with potential nominees' connections to the White House being a significant factor in market reactions [4][10]. - If a nominee is perceived as lacking experience in the Fed or economic fields, it could lead to the most significant market disruptions and further questions about the Fed's independence [10].

川普看着都怕Vito (@Vito_168):#美联储 有多牛？拳打中国脚踢川普，狠起来连自己也不放过。（下）现实往往比剧情，更加狗血。美联储迟迟不降息的一个重要原因其实是延续华尔街和美国建制派的一个国运级的对华思路。就是以降息为诱饵，实则为击碎市场信心，一记回马枪，飞马流星拳。 https://t.co/gl1qDmUXOw ...

美联储博斯蒂克表示，就业市场的风险有所增加，但承诺降息仍为时过早，在美联储下次会议前将有更 多数据出炉，且未来几个月通胀料仍将上升。博斯蒂克表示，他仍然认为今年降息25个百分点可能是最 合适的，但"我们实际上将获得大量有关通胀的数据，以及就业方面的情况，这将让我思考……通货膨 胀和就业之间风险的相对平衡。就业数据确实表明，就业方面的风险比以往高得多……我一定会仔细观 察的。" ...

图源：IC photo 据当地媒体报道，此次降息的决定是英格兰银行通过两次投票才做出的，最终以微弱的票数差距决定降息。 决议公布后，英国富时100指数延续跌势，下跌0.8%；英国两年期国债收益率上涨6个基点至3.88%，创日内高位。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 出品 | 2 1财经客户端 南财快讯工作室 记者 | 金珊 编辑 | 李志军 华润置地244亿拿下"巨无霸"地块火速开工 资金"结构性"回流商品市场 SFC 21君荐读 扫 码 点 击 下 载 皇 挥 全 球 悦 读 · · 智能 权 威 n D 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月7日，英国中央银行英格兰银行宣布， 将基准利率下调25个基点，从4.25%降至4%， 这也是2024年8月以来英 国第5次降息。 ...

周三，据媒体报道，特朗普的顾问们正在推动暂时性地"填补美联储理事"职位空缺，建议他提名一位临 时的美联储理事，以填补即将出现空缺的董事会席位。 提名一位临时理事来完成即将空出的席位任期（该任期将于2026年1月到期），可以为特朗普争取更多 时间，去挑选合适人选接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔，鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束。现任美联储理事 库格勒（Adriana Kugler）上周宣布，她将于8月8日离职。 特朗普周二在白宫的一场活动中表示，他正在权衡是提名一位短期人选，还是提名前景明确、将来可能 接任美联储主席的人选： 我们要么选择一位长期任命，要么是任期为几个月的人选。你知道的，这个职位目前剩下几个月的任 期。 库格勒的提前离职，使特朗普比预期更早地获得机会任命一位更符合他偏好、支持低利率政策的美联储 理事。 媒体援引知情人士称，短期的临时理事人选很可能来自特朗普政府的现有成员，并且之前已经获得过参 议院的联邦职位确认。这位被提名人仍需通过参议院确认，通常这一审查流程需要数月，但若特朗普施 压国会尽快填补该职位，该程序也可能被加速推进。 特朗普计划于周三与顾问们就美联储人选召开会议。 特朗普此前周二表示，他将在本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates soon due to a slowing labor market and the assessment that tariffs pose only a short-term threat to inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation has been gradually decreasing in the absence of tariffs, and with the economic slowdown and restrictive monetary policy, inflation is expected to continue its downward trend [1] - Although tariffs may temporarily raise inflation, their long-term impact is unlikely to be significant [1] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, and further slowdown in this area is concerning [1] - A decline in the labor market can happen quickly and severely, indicating potential risks for the economy [1] Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The current economic indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its policies in the coming months [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **U.S. economy**, particularly the **employment market**, **inflation**, and **monetary policy** implications due to recent economic data and political influences [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Employment Market Weakness** - The U.S. employment market shows signs of fatigue, with a rising unemployment rate and a significant downward revision of previous job growth figures, leading to an average of only **50,000 new jobs** added over the past three months [2][6]. - The labor participation rate changes contribute to the overall weakness in supply and demand within the job market [2]. 2. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations** - Market expectations for a rate cut in Q4 have surged, with a **95% probability** of a **25 basis point** cut before October, driven by the weak employment and inflation data [1][2]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on the real estate and manufacturing sectors [5]. 3. **Inflation Trends** - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April, prices of goods heavily reliant on imports, such as furniture and appliances, have risen significantly [3]. - The effective tax rate from tariffs is projected to increase from **16.5%** to **17.5%**, which may further elevate inflationary pressures [3]. 4. **Political Influence on Monetary Policy** - Political pressures for looser monetary policy are increasing, especially with the potential for new Federal Reserve board members who may favor rate cuts [5]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and inflation data will significantly influence the market's pricing of September rate cut expectations [5]. 5. **Consumer Spending Dynamics** - Consumer spending constitutes **70%** of the U.S. economy, with high-income households showing resilience in their spending habits [6]. - Fixed-rate loans dominate the debt landscape, minimizing the impact of the current rate hike cycle on overall consumer debt pressure [6]. 6. **Economic Outlook** - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "very good" state to a "not so good" state, indicating a slowdown but not an imminent recession [7]. - The narrative around the economy remains unchanged, with expectations of a gradual weakening rather than a linear decline into recession [7]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest more clearly in the data by October, as inventory replenishment continues in various sectors [3][4]. - The sensitivity of middle and low-income groups to price changes may mitigate inflation transmission pressures compared to previous years [4].

当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普表示将在本周内提名新的美联储理事，以接替将在8月8日提前离任的阿德里亚娜· 库格勒。多家外媒报道称，特朗普有可能会提名他心目中的下任美联储主席进入理事会。 刘英："特朗普可以任命与白宫意见相近，也就是当下倾向于较快降息或者较大幅度降息的人担任新理事，进而影响 美联储的决策。继任者有可能想比较快地降息，去满足特朗普政府的要求。而美联储主席鲍威尔则可能会根据数 据、根据美国经济增长的客观情况来安排降息与否。所以在一些观点方面有可能会出现分歧，有可能导致决策复杂 化。" 而关于鲍威尔继任者的具体人选，特朗普5日表示，候选人包括前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任白宫国家经济委员会 主任凯文·哈塞特等人。 特朗普称前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特都在考虑之列（彭博社报道截图） 在刘英看来，最终谁能取得这一职位，取决于谁的立场更符合特朗普政府的经济政策基调。 刘英："前美联储理事凯文·沃什在美联储的决策里面有更多的经验，所以他作为美联储主席是有可能的。但另外一 位，凯文·哈塞特其实更了解白宫的经济政策走向。所以（谁继任）不好说。更关键的是要看他们两位谁比较靠近特 朗 ...

转向国内，特朗普面临的挑战亦相当严峻。他在8月2日宣布开除美国劳工部统计局局长，并指责她操控数据，称之为一场"骗局"。这一举动缘于美国劳工部 公布的新就业数据，与特朗普期望的"赢学"相左。数据显示，新增就业人数仅为7.3万人，远低于市场预期的11万人，而失业率则有所上升，这些数据表明 美国的就业市场正在降温，与特朗普声称的关税战带来的就业增长相悖。 在八月初的几天里，特朗普的处境可谓相当不佳，不论是国内还是国际的局势都呈现出负面趋势。这种压力让特朗普不得不重新审视与中国之间的关系，因 为他意识到，该困境中多少与中国有着密切的关联。那么，究竟特朗普面临了什么样的困境呢？ 首先，一个重大的噩耗来源于他自己放出去的消息。特朗普再次调整了与俄罗斯签署和平协议的最后期限，把原本定于五十天后的日期提前至8月8日之前。 这个日期的选择非常巧妙，正好在特朗普计划于8月1日实施的全面关税政策生效之日，虽然有一个七天的缓冲期，实际上也就是说，真正的关税增收将从8 月7日才开始执行。这几天实际上成为其他国家的最后一次机会。 而特朗普所称的"二级关税"，无疑又是给中国施加压力的手段。在第三轮中美经贸谈判结束后，美国财政部长贝森特再次 ...