1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's government can appoint more Fed officials, which may raise expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed. The possible end of the US federal government shutdown and the Fed's provision of liquidity, along with the expansion of fiscal policies globally and central banks' continuous gold - buying, as well as geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 944.31 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.19 compared to the previous day and 26.80 compared to last week. The trading volume was 51666.00, down 11382.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 89616.00, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 1800.00 compared to last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4133.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 68.20 compared to the previous day and 260.10 compared to last week. The trading volume was 278020.00, up 33400.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 37575139.58, down 338082.64 from the previous day [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4136.75 dollars/ounce, with a change of 13.45 compared to the previous day and 185.65 compared to last week. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, with a change of 0.28 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 12092.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 227.00 compared to the previous day and 671.00 compared to last week. The trading volume was 870430.00, up 145316.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 583060.00, down 56880.00 from the previous day [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 53.23 dollars/ounce, with a change of 2.15 compared to the previous day and 6.33 compared to last week. The trading volume was 69857.00, up 41384.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 478191872.10, down 366186.53 from the previous day [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 51.54 dollars/ounce, with a change of 3.78 compared to the previous day and 0.29 compared to last week. iShare Silver ETF holdings were 482.31 tons, with a change of 1.29 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.3 Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 78.34, with a change of - 1.54 compared to the previous day and - 1.98 compared to last week. The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 80.92, with a change of - 5.12 compared to the previous day and - 1.99 compared to last week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Atlanta Fed President who advocates "no rate cut in December" will retire in February next year. The "third - in - command of the Fed" said the Fed may soon restart bond purchases to manage liquidity. US Treasury Secretary mentioned Trump's plan to issue $2000 tax refunds to families with annual incomes below $100,000 and "gradual" adjustment of US debt issuance [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - For silver, it is advisable to lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890 and the resistance level is around 960 - 1000. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45 and the resistance level is around 55 - 60. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9500 - 10500 and the resistance level is around 12400 - 13000 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic high-sulfur fuel oil futures are experiencing wide fluctuations due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand weakness, with prices expected to maintain a weak trend in the future [1][4] - The recent strengthening of the US dollar, driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, is expected to suppress global economic growth expectations and, consequently, the demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including fuel oil [2][4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the tightening of supply from Russia due to ongoing attacks on energy facilities and increased sanctions, are significantly impacting the high-sulfur fuel oil market [3][4] Group 2 - The tightening supply from Russia, which has seen a 20% decline in refining capacity since the beginning of the year, is a critical factor supporting price stability in the high-sulfur fuel oil market [3] - In the Middle East and Latin America, supply pressures are also evident, with maintenance periods in Saudi Arabia and production cuts in Mexico affecting high-sulfur fuel oil availability [3] - Domestic refiners are increasingly turning to high-sulfur fuel oil as a feedstock for delayed coking processes, providing new demand support for the market [4]

格隆汇11月13日｜在交易员权衡对供应过剩的担忧与欧佩克+闲置产能的萎缩以及俄罗斯制裁带来的风 险之际，油价在下午交易中维持在区间内。盛宝银行分析师表示："近期的前景继续显示出疲软，充足 的供应和疲弱的季节性需求是主要原因，但由于国际能源署的重大转变，长期前景变得更具建设 性。"IEA在其年度《世界能源展望》报告中恢复了一种情景，即在全球石油消费在现有政策下将持续 增长到2050年。然而，盛宝银行分析师指出，IEA也预测今年将出现更大的盈余，而欧佩克修订了第三 季度估算，称供应超过了需求——此举被广泛解读为长期预期的供应过剩已经到来的确认。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC has adjusted its forecast for the global oil market in the third quarter from a supply shortage to a supply surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased supply from the organization itself. There is a need to be vigilant about the impact of the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East on the market [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On November 12, 2025, WTI and Brent futures prices rebounded significantly, with WTI closing at $60.99 per barrel (previous day $59.53), a gain of 2.45%, and Brent at $65.09 per barrel (previous day $63.57), a gain of 2.39%. SC crude oil prices fell slightly to 458.8 yuan per barrel (previous day 460.4 yuan). The SC - Brent spread changed from $1.08 per barrel to - $0.66 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread narrowed from $5.12 per barrel to $3.44 per barrel, indicating the relative weakness of domestic SC crude oil compared to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.1 per barrel (previous day $4.04), suggesting tighter supply - demand in the European market [2]. b. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October remained at 7.8 million tons, showing supply resilience. Chevron plans to increase production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030, and the possible restart of oil drilling leases off the California coast in the US may lead to a marginal loosening of long - term supply. However, short - term disruptions remain, such as the UK's plan to restrict LNG export services to Russia from 2026 and the potential impact of the non - approval of Lukoil's sanction waiver extension [3]. - **Demand**: Refinery demand is differentiated. Japan's refinery operating rate dropped slightly to 90.6% (previous week 91.4%), and the decrease in US gasoline inventory slowed, indicating a marginal slowdown in demand. Indian state - owned refiners' procurement of Russian ESPO crude shows support in Asian spot demand, and the US strategic petroleum reserve's purchase of 1 million barrels reflects clear policy support [4]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels (previous value + 6.52 million barrels), with a slower inventory build - up but still at a high level. Product inventories decreased, reflecting seasonal demand shifts. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 354,000 liters to 10.38 million liters, but gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, showing a differentiated terminal replenishment rhythm [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC adjusted its third - quarter global oil market forecast from a shortage to a surplus, with a supply surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. There is a need to be vigilant about the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [6]. 2. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose 1.61% to 466.2 yuan per barrel, WTI fell 4.19% to $58.48 per barrel, and Brent fell 3.63% to $62.73 per barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while some other spot prices had slight fluctuations. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all changed, with significant increases in SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads. - Inventory: US commercial crude, Cushing, strategic reserve, and API inventories all increased. US refinery operating rate decreased slightly, and crude processing volume increased slightly [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 0.82% to 2,693 yuan per ton, LU rose 1.50% to 3,311 yuan per ton, and NYMEX fuel oil fell 4.28% to 247.13 cents per gallon. - Spot prices: Some spot prices of fuel oil increased slightly, while others remained unchanged. - Spreads: Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, with an increase in the Chinese high - low sulfur spread [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October were 7.804 million tons, similar to September. Chevron plans to increase oil and gas production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030. Indonesia expects an oil production of about 607,000 barrels per day in 2025. The Trump administration may open the California coast for oil drilling leases [10][11]. b. Demand - Indian state - owned refiner Indian Oil Corporation plans to purchase Russian ESPO and Sokol crude for early next year [12]. c. Inventory - US API inventories showed changes in various products, with a decrease in some and an increase in others. The US Energy Department purchased about 1 million barrels of crude for the strategic petroleum reserve. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased [13][14]. d. Market Information - Lukoil applied to the US Treasury for an extension of the trading deadline. UK's BP is in talks to sell Castrol. UK plans to ban services for Russian LNG exports from 2026. Crude - related futures prices fell significantly [15].

Group 1 - Ukraine has officially halted all peace negotiations with Russia, stating that no substantial progress has been made in multiple rounds of talks this year, and will not initiate new negotiations before the end of 2025, leading to a complete standstill in the peace process [1] - The Russian Foreign Ministry blamed Ukraine for the breakdown in talks, accusing it of undermining prisoner exchange agreements, which has resulted in increased geopolitical tensions and volatility in global financial markets [1] - Short-term market fluctuations are driven by rising geopolitical risks, while long-term trends will depend on the progress of energy supply alternatives and central bank policies; prolonged conflict may lead to renewed global inflation pressures and delayed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have seen an increase, with Shanghai gold rising by 1.56% to 961.22 yuan per gram, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [3] - According to Guangfa Futures, the U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges from government shutdowns and trade tensions, while central banks are increasingly accumulating gold, indicating a shift in asset allocation towards commodities with strong financial attributes [4] - The potential for a bull market in precious metals similar to the 1970s is anticipated, although historical trends suggest that after reaching new highs, gold prices may face a 2-3 month consolidation period before new upward momentum develops [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be oscillating strongly, the medium - term trend is high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is step - by - step upward. The core logic includes short - term hedging factors (Sino - US talks' negative impact is realized, geopolitical risks remain; US employment weakens and inflation is moderate, so the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains), hedging attributes (results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations are announced, and geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East remain), monetary attributes (the expectation that the US government may end the shutdown and economic data recovery may create conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates next month boosts the market, with the US dollar index and US Treasury yields under pressure to fall), and commodity attributes (the CRB commodity index oscillates weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices) [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex gold and London gold show different changes compared to the previous day and week. Domestic prices of Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D have increased. There are also various changes in basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, and other data. For example, the Comex gold主力 contract's closing price is $4007.80 per ounce, up $23.00 (0.58%) from the previous day and down $5.60 (-0.14%) from the previous week [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver have different changes. Domestic prices of Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D have increased. There are also changes in basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. For example, the Comex silver主力 contract's closing price is $48.23 per ounce, up $0.38 (0.79%) from the previous day and down $0.02 (-0.05%) from the previous week [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are $66236.43 billion, down $135.35 billion (-0.00%) from the previous period. M2's year - on - year growth rate is 4.49%, up 0.01% [9]. - **Other Economic Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data all show different trends and changes [9][11]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There are also data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate [11][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of the US private - sector employment supports the precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December has increased due to factors such as the decrease in the number of private - sector employees in October. Geopolitical risks and the continuous purchase of gold by central banks around the world may support precious metal prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 933.02 yuan/g, the trading volume was 63048.00, and the position volume was - 882.00. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 1.30, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 2.38 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11865.00 yuan/10g, the trading volume was 725114.00, and the position volume was 4243002.00. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 40.00, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 15.00 [1] - **COMEX International Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4133.20 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 223800.00, and the position volume was 291850.00. The inventory was 37575139.58 troy ounces [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4123.30 US dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 1041.78 tons, and iShare Gold ETF were 482.31 tons [1] - **COMEX International Silver Futures**: The closing price was 51.08 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 69857.00, and the position volume was 94353.00 [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 51.24 US dollars/ounce [1] 3.2 Price Ratios - The price ratio of gold to silver: Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 79.87, New York gold/New York silver was 80.92, and London gold spot/London silver spot was 81.74 [1] 3.3 Other Commodity and Financial Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 458.80 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 63.94 US dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 60.05 US dollars/barrel [1] - **Copper**: Shanghai copper futures were 86630.00 yuan/ton, and LME spot copper was 10840.00 US dollars/ton [1] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Shanghai rebar was 3044.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 763.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: The inter - bank lending rate SHIBO was 1.32, and the 10 - year US Treasury nominal yield was 4.1300 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.4792, the US dollar to RMB central parity rate was 7.0866, and the euro to RMB central parity rate was 8.1986 [1] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 4018.5972, the S&P 500 was 6851.9700, the UK FTSE 100 was 9787.1500, etc. [1] 3.4 Important Information - According to ADP, the US private sector lost an average of 11250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25th. The White House National Economic Council Director said that some US data for October may be lost forever [1] 3.5 Long - Short Logic - The Republican Party's agreement to vote on extending the ACA subsidies in December is expected to lead to some cash outflows from the US Treasury's general account. The decrease in private - sector employment in October has increased the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December. Geopolitical risks, the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and the continuous purchase of gold by central banks around the world may support precious metal prices [1] 3.6 Trading Strategy - It is advisable to go long when the price drops. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890, and the resistance level is around 960 - 1000. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45, and the resistance level is around 55 - 60. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9500 - 10500, and the resistance level is around 12000 - 12500 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen an increase in holdings to 1,046.36 tons as of November 11, 2025, reflecting a rise of 4.3 tons from the previous trading day, amid a rebound in gold prices which are trading above $4,100 per ounce [7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 11, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings stand at 1,046.36 tons of gold, marking an increase of 4.3 tons from the prior day [7]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings coincides with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a three-week high of $4,148.73 per ounce during the trading session [7]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Movements - On November 11, spot gold prices fluctuated, closing at $4,126.62 per ounce, up by $10.91 or 0.27% [7]. - The price of gold is supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks, leading to a generally optimistic short-term outlook for gold prices [7][8]. - Recent employment data has reignited market hopes for interest rate cuts, with private sector layoffs averaging 11,250 per week, indicating challenges in job creation [8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken out of a consolidation range between $3,900 and $4,050, confirming a bullish breakout, although upward momentum appears to be stalling [8]. - The daily chart shows a neutral to bullish pattern, while the 4-hour chart indicates that gold prices are above all major moving averages, supporting further upward movement [8]. Group 4: Price Resistance and Support Levels - A strong breakout above the $4,150 resistance level could enhance bullish momentum, targeting $4,200 and potentially retesting historical highs around $4,381 [9]. - Key support levels are identified at $4,100 and a stronger support near $4,050 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks continue their recent upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CNOOC (00883) rose by 3.66% to HKD 23.2, reaching a new historical high [1] - PetroChina (00857) increased by 2.49% to HKD 9.04 [1] - Sinopec (00386) gained 2.28% to HKD 4.49 [1] - CNOOC Services (601808) (02883) saw a rise of 0.88% to HKD 8.03 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. military's largest aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Caribbean, while Venezuela is conducting new military exercises [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that geopolitical risks in South America may rise in the next 1-2 weeks, despite Trump's indecision on military action against Venezuela [1] Group 3: OPEC+ and Oil Price Outlook - Everbright Securities indicates that OPEC+ halting production increases may improve supply-demand balance, potentially supporting oil prices [1] - Guolian Minsheng Securities forecasts that OPEC+ will announce multiple production increases in 2025, which could suppress oil prices due to expected supply increments and Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" impacting global demand [1] - The average Brent/WTI oil prices for Q3 2025 are projected to be USD 68.17/barrel and USD 64.96/barrel, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.40% and 13.78% respectively [1] Group 4: Company Performance and Outlook - Leading upstream oil and gas state-owned enterprises are expected to mitigate the pressure on oil prices through continuous reserve increases, production enhancements, and cost reductions [1] - If terminal consumption demand improves further, these leading state-owned enterprises may achieve performance recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks continue to rise, with CNOOC reaching a historical high, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions [1] Group 1: Company Performance - CNOOC (00883) increased by 3.66%, reaching 23.2 HKD, a new historical high [1] - PetroChina (00857) rose by 2.49%, priced at 9.04 HKD [1] - Sinopec (00386) saw a 2.28% increase, trading at 4.49 HKD [1] - CNOOC Services (02883) gained 0.88%, with a price of 8.03 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The entry of the largest U.S. aircraft carrier strike group into the Caribbean and military exercises in Venezuela contribute to rising geopolitical risks [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that geopolitical tensions may support oil prices despite Trump's indecision on military action in Venezuela [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that OPEC+ halting production increases improves supply-demand balance, potentially supporting oil prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guolian Minsheng Securities predicts that OPEC+ will restore production multiple times in 2025, which may suppress oil prices due to increased supply expectations [1] - The forecast for Brent and WTI average prices in Q3 2025 is 68.17 USD/barrel and 64.96 USD/barrel, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.40% and 13.78% respectively [1] - Leading oil and gas state-owned enterprises are expected to mitigate the pressure on oil prices through continuous reserve increases and cost reductions, with potential performance recovery if terminal demand improves [1]