1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes short - term hedging factors (Sino - US talks' negative impact is realized, but geopolitical risks remain; US employment weakens and inflation is moderate, so Fed rate - cut expectations persist), hedging attributes (results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations are announced, and geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East remain), monetary attributes (more Fed policymakers are cautious about a December rate cut, but the end of the US government shutdown and economic data recovery may create conditions for a rate cut next month), and commodity attributes (CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices) [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. Shanghai gold closed down 0.29%, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.04% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $4174.50 per ounce, down $26.90 (-0.64%) from the previous day and up $189.70 (4.76%) from last week; London gold is $4195.65 per ounce, up $58.90 (1.42%) from the previous day and up $209.15 (5.25%) from last week; Shanghai gold主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 953.20 yuan per gram, down 8.02 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and up 31.94 yuan (3.47%) from last week; Gold T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 947.98 yuan per gram, down 10.69 yuan (-1.12%) from the previous day and up 30.34 yuan (3.31%) from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai gold主力 (SHFE) positions are 113,597 lots (1 kg per lot), down 10,642 lots (-8.57%) from the previous day and down 23,063 lots (-16.88%) from last week; Gold TD (SGE) positions are 45,964 lots (1 kg per lot), down 5,368 lots (-2.25%) from the previous day and down 21,288 lots (-8.37%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 tons (-1.08%) from last week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory is 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and up 1.32% from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 66,417.00, an increase of 568.00 (19.11%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 13,012.00, a decrease of 44.00 (3.74%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $52.23 per ounce, down $1.00 (-1.88%) from the previous day and up $4.39 (9.17%) from last week; London silver is $53.87 per ounce, up $2.34 (4.53%) from the previous day and up $5.19 (10.65%) from last week; Shanghai silver主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 12,375.00 yuan per kg, down 213.00 yuan (-1.69%) from the previous day and up 891.00 yuan (7.76%) from last week; Silver T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 12,326.00 yuan per kg, down 237.00 yuan (-1.89%) from the previous day and up 846.00 yuan (7.37%) from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai silver主力 (SHFE) positions are 4,708,155 lots (1 kg per lot), down 92,040 lots (-1.92%) from the previous day and up 1,025,400 lots (27.84%) from last week; Silver TD (SGE) positions are 4,040,198 lots (1 kg per lot), down 36,092 lots (-0.89%) from the previous day and down 253,820 lots (-5.91%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 26,255 tons, an increase of 1,673 tons (6.81%); Comex silver inventory is 14,813 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 118 tons (-0.79%) from last week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory is 577 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-7.41%); The total explicit inventory is 42,467 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-0.11%) from the previous day and a decrease of 164 tons (-0.39%) from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 112,336.00, an increase of 8,357.00 (14.72%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 39,418.00, an increase of 2,773.00 (5.17%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal fund target rate upper limit is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 from the previous value; Fed total assets are $6,631.098 billion, down $608 million (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, an increase of 0.01; 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, an increase of 0.03 (1.27%); US dollar index is 99.48, down 0.14 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down 0.72 (-0.72%) from last week; US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, down 0.01 (-2.56%) from the previous day and up 0.05 (13.16%) from last week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.15, an increase of 0.03 (-16.67%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.06 (-28.57%) from last week; US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.53, unchanged; US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 2.84, an increase of 0.00 (0.01%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.02 (0.87%) from last week; CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged [10]. - **Inflation, Economy, and Other Aspects**: In the US, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects have corresponding data changes, such as GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP (annualized month - on - month) is 3.80, an increase of 4.40; unemployment rate is 4.30%, an increase of 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, a decrease of 0.57 million; etc [10]. - **Other Attributes**: Geopolitical risk index is 103.52, an increase of 4.85 (4.91%); VIX index is 20.00, an increase of 2.49 (14.22%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.50 (2.56%) from last week; CRB commodity index is 302.35, down 0.31 (-0.10%) from the previous day and up 1.44 (0.48%) from last week; offshore RMB is 7.1105, a decrease of 0.0153 (-0.21%) [11].

Group 1 - The weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical tensions have increased the attractiveness of gold, although hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have limited expectations for a rate cut in December, restricting the upward movement of gold prices [1][2] - Consumers are taking advantage of price discrepancies in the gold market, utilizing delivery services in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area to purchase gold bars at prices lower than the real-time market rate, saving significant amounts [1] - A joint statement from India and Canada emphasizes their commitment to securing critical minerals and clean energy supply chains, indicating a new phase in bilateral relations [1] Group 2 - Despite geopolitical risks and a weak dollar providing some support to the market, several Federal Reserve decision-makers have expressed caution, highlighting that inflation concerns remain and the labor market is stabilizing, suggesting no urgency for further rate cuts [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased from 64% to 51% according to futures data [2] Group 3 - As of November 14, 2023, the spot gold price is reported at $4171.19 per ounce, with a marginal increase of 0.01% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October 2025, but it is likely to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. New round of pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the coming year, and gold's long - term bullish trend is well - founded [4]. - The end of the US federal government shutdown had short - term and long - term impacts on the US economy. In the short term, it may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, while in the long run, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound in late 2025 and 2026, which is negative for precious metals [16][17]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, as the medium - term bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over, and attention should be paid to the opportunities to go long again [30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economic Situation in China - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October due to reduced stimulus from pro - growth measures, international trade tensions, and the decline of export - rush demand. New pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the future [4]. - From January to October, China's cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment shrank by 1.7%, with manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment all showing different degrees of slowdown [5]. - In October, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to October was 4.3% [8]. - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The domestic supply - demand imbalance worsened [9]. - In October, China's real estate market continued to be weak, with the national real estate climate index falling, sales, completion, and new construction areas all shrinking, and high inventory levels [11][12]. - In October, new and second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China declined, and the positive feedback cycle of falling prices and weak sales resumed [14]. 3.1.2 Impact of the End of the US Federal Government Shutdown - The 43 - day US federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, caused a short - term shock to the US economy, with an estimated loss of about $645 billion and a predicted 1.5 - percentage - point reduction in Q4 2025 GDP growth [15][16]. - After the shutdown ended, the release of previously suspended economic data may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, leading to a rise in US stocks and precious metal prices. In the long term, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound, which may lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in the first half of 2026, negative for precious metals [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure [19][20]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8% - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [22]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of November 13, 2025, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 22.4% and 13.8% higher than their May 2024 lows respectively [23]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the long - term bull market of gold. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices rose due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation but then corrected and rebounded [26][27]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, with London gold expected to reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver expected to reach $58 and $63 per ounce [30]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai showed different trends from June 2024 to October 2025. The correlation between gold and other assets also changed, with the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index turning positive, and the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields weakening [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since late October, affected by supply - side disturbances and seasonal weakness in demand, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line. In a bearish atmosphere, it is expected that fuel oil will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2]. - In the context of increasing macro - risks, the fuel oil futures market is under short - term pressure, and its subsequent trend depends more on the structural changes on the supply side rather than the strong recovery of demand [3]. - Although the short - term macro - outlook is weak and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress the fuel oil futures price, the restricted supply pattern of Russian fuel oil is difficult to reverse in the short term, and geopolitical risk premiums will still exist. Affected by the recent sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it is expected that fuel oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Since late October, the domestic high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2601 contract has fluctuated widely in the range of 2600 - 2850 yuan/ton. After being dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, it fell 4% and dropped below the 2600 yuan/ton line [2]. Macro - factors - Recent "hawkish" signals from Fed officials mean that the US will maintain a high - interest - rate environment for a longer time, which boosts the US dollar index. The government "shutdown" has dragged down the economy, and the weakening macro - expectations will have multiple impacts on the fuel oil futures market [2]. - High - interest - rate environment suppresses global economic growth expectations and the demand for dollar - denominated commodities, increasing the volatility and risk of trading and indirectly suppressing the consumption demand for marine fuel oil [2]. Supply - side Factors - Since August 2025, Russian energy facilities have been frequently attacked, and its refining capacity has declined by about 20% as of the end of October. In November, the US and the EU further tightened sanctions on Russian oil companies, reducing its export capacity [3]. - In the Middle East, some Saudi refineries are in the maintenance cycle, and some Kuwaiti refineries have shut down part of their production capacity due to device fires. In Latin America, the export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in countries such as Mexico shows a seasonal decline, and new secondary processing devices in some refineries will also restrict supply growth [3]. Demand - side Factors - As the crude oil quota of domestic refineries is running out in the fourth quarter, some refineries tend to purchase high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock for delayed coking units, providing new demand support [4]. - The number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers globally has exceeded 4500 in 2025. Due to the economic advantages of using high - sulfur fuel oil after installation, the demand from this part of the fleet remains stable [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by institutional investment rather than short-term speculation, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International spot gold prices have fluctuated around $4188 per ounce, with domestic gold T D prices reaching 956.65 yuan per gram, marking a daily increase of 1.31% [1]. - On November 12, the global largest gold ETF increased its holdings by 0.28 tons, bringing total holdings to 1046.64 tons, suggesting institutional confidence in the market [1][3]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's gold ETF saw an increase of 79.015 tons, a year-on-year growth of 164.03%, while global gold ETFs added 619 tons with a capital inflow of $640 billion [3]. Group 2: Institutional Investment - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, with two rate cuts in 2025, has led to increased institutional investment in gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [5][9]. - Predictions indicate a high probability of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to further stimulate capital inflows into gold [5]. - Central banks globally have shown a strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, indicating a long-term commitment to gold [5][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven, with ongoing conflicts contributing to market uncertainty [7]. - The inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar has become more pronounced, with a weakening dollar driving gold prices higher [9]. - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have broken through key resistance levels, indicating a potential for sustained upward movement [9][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor institutional flows and avoid high-leverage trading, with a recommended allocation of gold in asset portfolios kept within 10-20% [11]. - The current market conditions suggest that short-term pullbacks in gold prices may present buying opportunities, especially as long-term bullish factors remain intact [11].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry was mentioned in the report [1] Core View - Multiple Fed officials signaled a cautious approach or opposition to a December rate cut, reducing the probability of a December rate cut to around 45%. Along with the end of the US government shutdown and expectations of a large amount of economic data release, precious metal prices may adjust in the short term. However, factors such as global debt expansion, fiscal deficit, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1] Summary by Relevant Content Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On November 14, 2025, the futures active - contract closing price was 961.22 yuan/gram, up 15.46 yuan from the previous day and 39.96 yuan from last week. The spot Shanghai Gold T + D closing price was 944.31 yuan/gram, up 14.36 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The futures active - contract closing price was 12,588 yuan/ten - grams, up 515 yuan from the previous day and 1,104 yuan from last week. The spot Shanghai Silver T + D closing price was 12,563 yuan/ten - grams, up 471 yuan from the previous day [1] - **COMEX Gold**: The futures active - contract closing price was 4,174.50 dollars/ounce, down 26.90 dollars from the previous day but up 184.10 dollars from last week. The London Gold Spot price was 3,968.20 dollars/ounce, up 227.45 dollars from the previous day [1] - **COMEX Silver**: The futures active - contract closing price was 52.23 dollars/ounce, up 4.37 dollars from the previous day. The London Silver Spot price was 53.87 dollars/ounce, up 2.34 dollars from the previous day [1] Price Ratios - The price ratio of Shanghai Gold Futures to Shanghai Silver Futures was 76.36, down 3.86 from the previous day and 1.98 from last week. The ratio of London Gold Spot to London Silver Spot was 83.35, down 2.39 from the previous day [1] Other Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE Crude Oil was 463.70 yuan/barrel, down 16.70 yuan from the previous day and 14.20 yuan from last week. ICE Brent Crude was 63.11 dollars/barrel, up 0.43 dollars from the previous day and down 0.44 dollars from last week [1] - **Copper and Steel**: Shanghai Copper Futures was 86,840 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan from the previous day and 1,610 yuan from last week. Shanghai Rebar was 3,046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day and 12 yuan from last week [1] Important Information - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the shutdown caused 60,000 job losses [1] - Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance before important economic data release. Some officials advocated caution, while others opposed the previous month's rate cut and said December's action would depend on data [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions. For London Gold, focus on support around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and resistance around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai Gold, focus on support around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and resistance around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram. For London Silver, focus on support around 38 - 45 dollars/ounce and resistance around 55 - 60 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai Silver, focus on support around 9,500 - 10,500 yuan/ten - grams and resistance around 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ten - grams [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's government can appoint more Fed officials, which may raise expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed. The possible end of the US federal government shutdown and the Fed's provision of liquidity, along with the expansion of fiscal policies globally and central banks' continuous gold - buying, as well as geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 944.31 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.19 compared to the previous day and 26.80 compared to last week. The trading volume was 51666.00, down 11382.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 89616.00, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 1800.00 compared to last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4133.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 68.20 compared to the previous day and 260.10 compared to last week. The trading volume was 278020.00, up 33400.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 37575139.58, down 338082.64 from the previous day [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4136.75 dollars/ounce, with a change of 13.45 compared to the previous day and 185.65 compared to last week. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, with a change of 0.28 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 12092.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 227.00 compared to the previous day and 671.00 compared to last week. The trading volume was 870430.00, up 145316.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 583060.00, down 56880.00 from the previous day [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 53.23 dollars/ounce, with a change of 2.15 compared to the previous day and 6.33 compared to last week. The trading volume was 69857.00, up 41384.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 478191872.10, down 366186.53 from the previous day [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 51.54 dollars/ounce, with a change of 3.78 compared to the previous day and 0.29 compared to last week. iShare Silver ETF holdings were 482.31 tons, with a change of 1.29 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.3 Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 78.34, with a change of - 1.54 compared to the previous day and - 1.98 compared to last week. The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 80.92, with a change of - 5.12 compared to the previous day and - 1.99 compared to last week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Atlanta Fed President who advocates "no rate cut in December" will retire in February next year. The "third - in - command of the Fed" said the Fed may soon restart bond purchases to manage liquidity. US Treasury Secretary mentioned Trump's plan to issue $2000 tax refunds to families with annual incomes below $100,000 and "gradual" adjustment of US debt issuance [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - For silver, it is advisable to lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890 and the resistance level is around 960 - 1000. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45 and the resistance level is around 55 - 60. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9500 - 10500 and the resistance level is around 12400 - 13000 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic high-sulfur fuel oil futures are experiencing wide fluctuations due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand weakness, with prices expected to maintain a weak trend in the future [1][4] - The recent strengthening of the US dollar, driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, is expected to suppress global economic growth expectations and, consequently, the demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including fuel oil [2][4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the tightening of supply from Russia due to ongoing attacks on energy facilities and increased sanctions, are significantly impacting the high-sulfur fuel oil market [3][4] Group 2 - The tightening supply from Russia, which has seen a 20% decline in refining capacity since the beginning of the year, is a critical factor supporting price stability in the high-sulfur fuel oil market [3] - In the Middle East and Latin America, supply pressures are also evident, with maintenance periods in Saudi Arabia and production cuts in Mexico affecting high-sulfur fuel oil availability [3] - Domestic refiners are increasingly turning to high-sulfur fuel oil as a feedstock for delayed coking processes, providing new demand support for the market [4]

格隆汇11月13日｜在交易员权衡对供应过剩的担忧与欧佩克+闲置产能的萎缩以及俄罗斯制裁带来的风 险之际，油价在下午交易中维持在区间内。盛宝银行分析师表示："近期的前景继续显示出疲软，充足 的供应和疲弱的季节性需求是主要原因，但由于国际能源署的重大转变，长期前景变得更具建设 性。"IEA在其年度《世界能源展望》报告中恢复了一种情景，即在全球石油消费在现有政策下将持续 增长到2050年。然而，盛宝银行分析师指出，IEA也预测今年将出现更大的盈余，而欧佩克修订了第三 季度估算，称供应超过了需求——此举被广泛解读为长期预期的供应过剩已经到来的确认。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC has adjusted its forecast for the global oil market in the third quarter from a supply shortage to a supply surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased supply from the organization itself. There is a need to be vigilant about the impact of the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East on the market [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On November 12, 2025, WTI and Brent futures prices rebounded significantly, with WTI closing at $60.99 per barrel (previous day $59.53), a gain of 2.45%, and Brent at $65.09 per barrel (previous day $63.57), a gain of 2.39%. SC crude oil prices fell slightly to 458.8 yuan per barrel (previous day 460.4 yuan). The SC - Brent spread changed from $1.08 per barrel to - $0.66 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread narrowed from $5.12 per barrel to $3.44 per barrel, indicating the relative weakness of domestic SC crude oil compared to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.1 per barrel (previous day $4.04), suggesting tighter supply - demand in the European market [2]. b. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October remained at 7.8 million tons, showing supply resilience. Chevron plans to increase production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030, and the possible restart of oil drilling leases off the California coast in the US may lead to a marginal loosening of long - term supply. However, short - term disruptions remain, such as the UK's plan to restrict LNG export services to Russia from 2026 and the potential impact of the non - approval of Lukoil's sanction waiver extension [3]. - **Demand**: Refinery demand is differentiated. Japan's refinery operating rate dropped slightly to 90.6% (previous week 91.4%), and the decrease in US gasoline inventory slowed, indicating a marginal slowdown in demand. Indian state - owned refiners' procurement of Russian ESPO crude shows support in Asian spot demand, and the US strategic petroleum reserve's purchase of 1 million barrels reflects clear policy support [4]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels (previous value + 6.52 million barrels), with a slower inventory build - up but still at a high level. Product inventories decreased, reflecting seasonal demand shifts. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 354,000 liters to 10.38 million liters, but gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, showing a differentiated terminal replenishment rhythm [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC adjusted its third - quarter global oil market forecast from a shortage to a surplus, with a supply surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. There is a need to be vigilant about the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [6]. 2. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose 1.61% to 466.2 yuan per barrel, WTI fell 4.19% to $58.48 per barrel, and Brent fell 3.63% to $62.73 per barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while some other spot prices had slight fluctuations. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all changed, with significant increases in SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads. - Inventory: US commercial crude, Cushing, strategic reserve, and API inventories all increased. US refinery operating rate decreased slightly, and crude processing volume increased slightly [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 0.82% to 2,693 yuan per ton, LU rose 1.50% to 3,311 yuan per ton, and NYMEX fuel oil fell 4.28% to 247.13 cents per gallon. - Spot prices: Some spot prices of fuel oil increased slightly, while others remained unchanged. - Spreads: Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, with an increase in the Chinese high - low sulfur spread [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October were 7.804 million tons, similar to September. Chevron plans to increase oil and gas production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030. Indonesia expects an oil production of about 607,000 barrels per day in 2025. The Trump administration may open the California coast for oil drilling leases [10][11]. b. Demand - Indian state - owned refiner Indian Oil Corporation plans to purchase Russian ESPO and Sokol crude for early next year [12]. c. Inventory - US API inventories showed changes in various products, with a decrease in some and an increase in others. The US Energy Department purchased about 1 million barrels of crude for the strategic petroleum reserve. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased [13][14]. d. Market Information - Lukoil applied to the US Treasury for an extension of the trading deadline. UK's BP is in talks to sell Castrol. UK plans to ban services for Russian LNG exports from 2026. Crude - related futures prices fell significantly [15].