Group 1: Investment Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The allocation ratio of funds to the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 1.07 percentage points to 4.59% in Q1 2025, with copper, gold, and aluminum being the key focus for increased allocation [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 8.11% from the beginning of 2025 to May 30, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.52 percentage points, ranking third among 31 industry indices [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the non-ferrous metals sector is projected to be 141.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.01%, while Q1 2025 net profit is expected to reach 45.27 billion yuan, a 70.2% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - Multiple factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to enhance liquidity and benefit gold [2] - Gold's investment value is highlighted by rising inflation expectations in the U.S., alongside ongoing tariff uncertainties that increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Geopolitical risks and major central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves are anticipated to further push gold prices upward [2] Group 3: Rare Earth Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand dynamics for rare earths are marginally improving, driven by policies promoting new energy vehicles and home appliances, which are expected to increase demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials [3] - The domestic control over rare earth mining growth is slowing, and while imports from Myanmar have temporarily recovered, future import stability remains uncertain due to seasonal factors [3] - Export controls on heavy rare earths implemented in April 2025 are expected to drive up overseas rare earth prices, which will likely lead to domestic price increases [3] Group 4: Copper and Aluminum Market Fundamentals - The aluminum sector is supported by ongoing domestic policies, with high demand expected from the power grid, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, while supply growth is anticipated to slow down [4] - Short-term uncertainties remain due to tariff disruptions and economic fluctuations, but the long-term outlook for aluminum prices is upward due to supply constraints [4] - The copper market faces short-term supply disruptions and long-term constraints due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, which are expected to support copper prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] Core Viewpoints - The eurozone's economic data is weak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the Middle East situation [2] - China's May economic data was mixed, with weak investment and export, and only consumption showing resilience. Fiscal policy may be further strengthened [3] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US retail sales declined in May. The eurozone's composite PMI dropped [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, which may lead to significant changes in the prices of crude oil, commodities, global stock indices, and precious metals [5] - Commodities are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may have price increases. Oil prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's May investment data was weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The government may increase fiscal support. The US and China held a trade negotiation meeting, and the US tariff policy may be flexible. South Korea and Japan's leaders will not attend the NATO summit [3] - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate. The US retail sales declined in May, and the eurozone's composite PMI dropped. The ECB has limited room for interest rate cuts [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since June 13, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia supports Iran, and the US has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may close the Hormuz Strait. If the conflict spreads, it will impact global markets [5] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, industrial products may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Oil supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - term, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] To - do News - Multiple events related to the Iran - Israel conflict on June 23, including military strikes, statements from various countries, and discussions in international organizations. China, Russia, and Pakistan proposed a UN Security Council resolution draft [8]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-24 地缘扰动持续，需求改善乏力 市场分析 1、\t6月23日地区价格：山东市场，4800—4850；东北市场，4130—4310；华北市场，4570—4800；华东市场， 4530—4650；沿江市场，4780—4880；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4748。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷645美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5092元/吨，涨17元/吨，丁烷4484元/吨，涨17元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷648美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷568美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5116元/吨，涨17元/吨，丁烷4484元/吨，涨17元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 现货方面，多数区域价格稳中上涨，上游走货顺畅，下游积极入市。供应方面，海外供应维持充裕，但随伊以冲 突发酵，伊朗供应面临下行风险；国内炼厂检修结束，国内供应逐步回升，但短期到港压力有所缓和。需求方面， 燃烧需求疲软，PDH装置开工率 ...

当地时间6月23日，美联储理事鲍曼表示可能支持最早7月降息。在美联储理事鲍曼谈及降息前景之后，标普500指数涨0.57%刷新日高，道指涨0.42%，纳 指涨0.55%。 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约、布伦特原油主力合约均跌超8%。国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌0.04%，COMEX白银期货涨 0.09%。 霍尔木兹海峡有多重要 一旦伊朗决定关闭霍尔木兹海峡，还可能引发地区局势进一步升级。 美国国务卿鲁比奥威胁说， 如果伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，将是一个"可怕的错误""无异于经济自杀"。 美国媒体援引资深国际石油市场分析师安迪·利波的话报道，如果霍尔木兹海峡被完全封锁，原油价格可能涨至每桶120美元至130美元。 德意志银行分析 师吉姆·里德表示，市场下一步走势"实际上取决于伊朗是否会将石油武器化"。 油价大跌 国际油价本周首个交易日波动剧烈，全球基准布伦特原油本周开盘时上涨近6%，创新高。 随后大幅走低。Wind数据显示，截至当地时间6月23日收盘， 美油主力合约收跌8.95%，报67.23美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌8.37%，报69.16美元/ 桶。 | NYMEX WTI原油 | IC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The conflict between Israel and Iran has made the geopolitical situation in the Middle East more unstable. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, the harassment of ships by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen has already disrupted global energy trade. The Strait of Hormuz is the risk - pricing center for the global LPG market, and any threat to the waterway will amplify price fluctuations, changing the LPG trade pattern. The actual impact needs to be dynamically evaluated based on four variables: conflict duration, international response, global supply - demand fundamentals, and regional supply disruptions and domestic factors in China [1][2][38][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iran Liquefied Petroleum Gas Facilities Introduction - Over 90% of Iran's LPG is produced from the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, with on - shore processing bases concentrated in Asaluyeh Industrial City. Asaluyeh Port undertakes about 70% of Iran's LPG exports and is the main source of China's imports. The Chabahar Port currently cannot replace the strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The Strait of Hormuz is the only outlet from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Iran controls major islands in the strait and has an important port, Bandar Abbas [5]. - Since 2018, China has been the main destination for Iran's energy - chemical product exports, accounting for nearly 95% of the receiving volume in 2025 [12]. China's Import of Iranian LPG Overview - In recent years, the US has long occupied 35% - 40% of China's LPG import market share, but due to the expected intensification of the Sino - US trade war tariff escalation in 2025 and the diversion of propane raw materials by US ethane cracking plants, its exports to China are expected to decrease by 15% - 20%. Iran, as the largest potential LPG supplier in the Middle East, has geographical, cost, and supply - chain advantages. If the Sino - US trade conflict intensifies, Iran's idle export potential of 200 - 300 tons/year may be activated. If the US raises tariffs on LPG exports to China in April 2025, Iran's share in China's supply may rise from the current 10% to 15% - 18% [13][14]. Three Scenario Assumptions of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade Scenario 1: Complete Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's LPG shipments to China will drop to nearly zero. Physical supply will be interrupted, and global supply panic will occur. China will seek alternative sources, and freight and insurance costs will skyrocket. China's imported LPG price may soar by 30% - 50% in the short term, and domestic LPG prices may rise by 15% - 30%. Global LPG prices will generally rise significantly [28][29][30][31]. Scenario 2: Continuous Harassment of Passing Ships - Iran's LPG shipments to China will significantly decrease by about 20% - 50%. The main reasons include risk aversion by shipowners/tenants, voyage delays, increased insurance costs, and Iran's reduced export willingness/ability. China's imported LPG price will rise by 10% - 25%, and domestic prices will rise by 5% - 12.5%. Other alternative source prices will also increase [28][32][34]. Scenario 3: Normal Navigation of the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's LPG shipments to China will maintain normal levels or fluctuate according to market fundamentals. LPG prices will be driven by fundamentals, with stable market sentiment and prices fluctuating within a normal range [28][35][36]. Summary The Strait of Hormuz determines Iran's LPG supply capacity. Complete blockade will cause a supply crisis and price surge in the Asian market, while continuous harassment will push up LPG prices in the long term. China, as the largest importer, will bear the brunt of price increases. The actual impact needs to be evaluated based on four variables [38][39].

(原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅下行，布伦特08合约跌8.63%，预计SC原油期货开盘后补跌。周一伊朗对美国驻 卡塔尔空军基地进行导弹袭击以作为美国袭击其三处核设施的回应,而并未出现霍尔木兹海峡封锁 的极端情景，特朗普称伊朗与以色列已达成停火协议，尽管暂未最终确认，本轮伊以冲突在未构成 石油供应犹动的前提下仍出现明确缓和信号。本轮油价上涨的宏观及供需面支撑偏弱,溢价点集中 在中东地缘风险，地缘局势的缓和将带动原油重回空头趋势，此前相对偏强的内外盘价差、柴油裂 解价差同样面临修复。 【责金属】 隔夜伊以冲突进展发生逆转,特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致,将实现全面停火,原油和 黄金均回落。如顺利实现停火，市场关注点将逐渐转向关税谈判和美联储。今日关注鲍威尔就半年 度货币政策报告作证词陈述。 【铜】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月24日 隔夜美伦铜价格震荡走高,伦铜继续去库,LME0-3月升水接近280美元。美国6月标普制造业PMI 初 值处于扩张状态,欧元区继续萎缩停滞。伦铜暂时仍稳固在MA20日均线。国内现铜升水缩窄，SMM 社库减少1.63万吨至12.96 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/24 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌 8.95%，报 67.23 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约跌 8.37%，报 69.16 美元/桶。美国总统特朗普对伊朗提前通知打击 美军基地表示感谢，并称是时候实现和平了，市场对中东局势的担忧缓解。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.04%报 3384.40 美元/盎 司，COMEX白银期货涨0.09%报36.05美元/盎司。中东地缘政治紧张局势升级， 伊朗与美国冲突加剧市场避险需求。美联储官员释放鸽派信号，美元走弱为金 价提供支撑。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锌涨 2.11%报 2686.00 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 1.67%报 2592.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.63%报 9694.50 美元/吨。铜价维持震 荡，全球铜精矿供应偏紧，新能源汽车需求强劲但空调行业季节性转弱。宏观 环境压制市场，美联储维持限制性利率政策，国际贸易博弈成为焦点。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯 ...

文字早评 2025/06/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.65%，创指+0.39%，科创 50+0.38%，北证 50+1.54%，上证 50+0.41%，沪深 300+0.29%， 中证 500+0.61%，中证 1000+1.31%，中证 2000+1.94%，万得微盘+2.54%。两市合计成交 11226 亿，较上 一日+549 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、在美国 22 日空袭伊朗三处核设施后，伊朗议会迅速通过"关闭霍尔木兹海峡"的提案，该海峡是海 湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道，是全球最重要的石油 "咽喉要道"之一。 2、美商务部计划撤销台积电、三星、SK 海力士在华使用美国技术的豁免政策，要求这些企业今后需逐 案申请许可证。 3、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办 关于银行资本的会议。 资金面：融资额-82.33 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.368%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.66bp 至 2.8756%，十年期国债利率-0.20bp 至 1.6387%，信用利差 ...

贵金属日报 2025-06-24 贵金属 沪金涨 0.56 %，报 786.10 元/克，沪银涨 0.89 %，报 8809.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.86 %， 报 3365.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.86 %，报 35.88 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.38%，美元指数报 98.16 ； 市场展望： 美联储票委表态鸽派，同时海外地缘政治风险释放，宏观环境将驱动白银价格表现强于黄金。 昨夜美联储官员表态连续鸽派，美联储理事鲍曼表示若通胀压力得到控制，她支持在下一次议 息会议中尽快降低利率，令其更接近中性水平，并维持相对健康的劳动力市场。芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比表示过去三个月并未出现太多的通货膨胀，若贸易政策的影响消退，应当继续进行 降息。联储宽松货币政策预期的释放将驱动银价表现强势。 海外地缘政治风险方面，今晨美国总统特朗普宣布，伊朗和以色列已达成一致，将进行全面停 火。避险因素对于黄金价格的支撑将有所弱化。 海外风险事件逐步消退的同时，联储持续释放宽松的货币政策预期，CME 利率观测器显示，市 场预期美联储下半年将分别在 9 月以及 10 月议息会议中进行 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-24 原油冲高回落，PX依然偏紧 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN250美元/吨(环比变动-11.63美元/吨）。近期中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停 车，沙特Rabigh芳烃装置重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底国内几套PX装置计划检修，目前现货市场货 源仍较紧张，PX浮动价依然偏强，关注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展，PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 264 元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨），PTA现货加工费383元/吨（环比变动-30元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费360元/吨（环比变动+18元/吨），伴随大量仓单注销主流供应商排货，现货市场流通性偏紧的情况 有所缓解，PTA自身基本面支撑有所转弱，关注伊以局势对成本的影响和需求支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率92.0%（环比+1.1%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺，原料价格上涨后集中补库下长丝库存下降，后续价格高位震荡库存压力可能提升，继续关注 聚酯库存变化，短期长丝负荷预计还能维持；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方 面，万 ...