Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) analysts indicate that the slowdown in U.S. employment growth has boosted expectations for interest rate cuts, which is favorable for non-yielding gold [1] Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts is increasingly being factored in by traders [1] - Economic uncertainty is driving investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] - Gold is expected to receive strong support in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in gold stock ETFs, with a rise of over 5% on August 4, indicating heightened market interest [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 non-farm jobs were added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with a downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined [3] - Following the disappointing non-farm employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts increased, leading to a surge in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3,400 [3] Group 2 - Financial analysts suggest that the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan in the U.S. and a weakening dollar credit will provide upward momentum for precious metals in the medium term [3] - The increasing pressure on U.S. government fiscal deficits and the declining risk appetite for dollar assets among global investors highlight the strategic reserve and anti-inflation properties of precious metals [3] - The current global economic uncertainty and weak non-farm data have raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which supports gold prices in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects publicly traded companies involved in gold mining and production, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry [4] - The index's constituent stocks are primarily focused on the gold mining sector, with a value investment style suitable for long-term investors interested in the precious metals market [4] - Investors without stock accounts can consider related ETFs such as the Guotai CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF [4]

| FERENS 贵金属日评20250804: 美国7月新增非农远不及预期, 市场预期美联储下半年或降息三次 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-28 较昨日变化 较上周变化 | | | 上海黄金 收盘价 767.18 766. 58 771.58 0. 60 -4. 40 | | | 持仓重 206334.00 207044.00 -710.00 210216.00 -3, 882. 00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.28 -3. 48 -2.78 0. 20 -0. 50 | | | 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -3.54 -3. 70 -3. 20 0.16 -0. 34 收盘价 8918.00 9008.00 9212. 00 -90. 00 -294.00 | | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-24 较昨日变化 较上周变化 收盘价 3342. 30 3416. 00 3371.30 73. 70 44. 70 | | | 伦敦黄金现货 伦敦金现 3346 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Metals and Minerals - Gold, Silver, Zinc, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Logs: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [24] - Copper, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal: Neutral Outlook [0] [12] [18] Energy - Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Negative Outlook [-1] [4] Chemicals - PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [4] Agricultural and Livestock - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut: Varying Degrees of Outlook [-1, 0] [4] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Negative Outlook [-1] [4] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news. The trends of different commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For example, the weak non - farm payroll data in the US has led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on precious metals and other commodities [7] [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm data is weak, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, with some contracts having positive night - trading gains [2] [6]. - **Silver**: It has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also fluctuated, with some contracts having negative daily gains [2] [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot premium is firm, which limits price declines. The trend strength is 0. Macro - economic data and industry events such as project evaluations in Peru and tariff policies in the US have an impact on the copper market [12] [14]. - **Zinc**: It is in a downward oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has also changed [15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction limits price drops, and the trend strength is 0. The prices of lead futures and spot have shown little change, and inventory has decreased [18]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot have fluctuated, and inventory data has changed [20] [21]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has shifted downward. Alumina is in continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is - 1 [25] [27]. - **Nickel**: The multi - empty game has intensified, and nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of nickel futures and related products in the industrial chain have fluctuated [28] [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: It has returned to fundamentals, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have shown little change [29]. Energy - Related Commodities - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The sentiment has been realized, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot have changed, and inventory and position data are also provided [54] [55]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption has recovered, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend strength is 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot in different regions are reported, and position data is also given [59] [61]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances still exist, and wide - range oscillations may continue. The trend strength is 0. The prices of carbonate - lithium futures and spot have fluctuated, and market data such as trading volume and open interest are provided [34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a weak pattern. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has changed [37] [38]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term sentiment continues to cool down. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and related products in the photovoltaic industry have fluctuated [38]. - **PTA**: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differentials. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. Agricultural and Livestock Commodities - **Palm Oil**: With the ebb of macro and crude - oil factors, wait for low - level long - position building. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is mainly in an oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold short positions as appropriate, and it may continue to be weak. The trend strength is - 1 [4].

1、逢低 3320 支撑考虑做多，止损 7 美元，目标看 3375-3380 美元附近 香港第一金技术面： 现货黄金在上周整体走势因近期美元走强而承压下跌。其中，在上周三金价一度跌破 3270 美元/盎司关 口，并创 1 个多月来最大单日跌幅，周四周五黄金稍微回升，特别是在周五的非农后更是直接大涨当晚 逾 60 美元，抹去此前全部跌幅。黄金非农多头冲击完全突破了预期，单边上涨幅度超过了 60 美金，下 方 3280 美元/盎司一线多次进行了触底反弹后 3300 美元/盎司一线，但是在非农数据利多刺激下突破压 制，一路猛涨突破上方多重压制，走出了多头的强势，让多头再次重现天日，本周一开始香港第一金陈 生建议继续保持回踩做多的趋势进行操作，下方关注 3330 至 3335 美元/盎司一线支撑，操作上继续保 持回踩做多的态势进行把握。 从 4 小时分析来看，本周上方短期阻力关注 3375-3380 美元/盎司附近，重点关注 3395-3400 美元/盎司 一线重要压制，下方关注 3330-35 美元/盎司一线支撑，保持回踩做多进行对待。中间位置尽量保持稳 健观望为主，首先可以确定的就是 3363 美元/盎司这里肯定 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [2] - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and policy, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. The Brent 10 contract rose 2.84%, and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. OPEC +'s production increase in September can only partially hedge risks and demand. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU cracks continued to decline. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads are also weak [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and inventory destocking was weak. The price follows the crude oil direction with limited fluctuation [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, and the domestic market was under pressure. The price was running at a low level [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations, the dollar fell, and precious metals rebounded. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended in the fluctuating trend [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper fluctuated and closed down. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly at night. The macro - sentiment was repeated, and the inventory increased. It may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate [4] - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was recommended to be shorted on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The price continued to decline. There was support at the bottom. It is recommended to hold long positions [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The upstream price support weakened, and the inventory was at a high level. Look for opportunities to short [9] - **Tin**: LME tin rose. Pay attention to the domestic supply - demand game. Hold high - level short positions [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand was relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to the support at 5800 [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply increased slightly, and it followed the trend of manganese silicon [19] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened lower and fluctuated. The futures price was at a reasonable level. Try to go long with a light position in the short - term [11] - **Polysilicon**: The price fluctuated sharply and corrected. The PS2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure remained, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13] - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate weakly [24] - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the domestic supply was sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro - policies [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price weakened. There was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter, and monthly spread band - trading is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to run weakly [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene was expected to be relatively abundant, and the price was easy to fall but hard to rise. Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC continued to weaken, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda ran weakly [29] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a driving force for processing margin repair in the medium - term [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline, and the supply was expected to increase [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The prices followed the raw materials down. There was an expectation of improved demand for short - fiber in the peak season [32] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price fell. The demand was weak, and the "anti - involution" cooled down. The short - term price was under pressure [14] - **Iron Ore**: The price fell last week. The supply and demand changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices declined. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the prices were affected by policy expectations [16][17] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" commodities continued to correct. The US soybean was under pressure, and the market was expected to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: There was a risk of increased adjustment in the short - term. A long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium - term [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is expected to consolidate. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuated and corrected. Pay attention to the weather in the US and Northeast China [39] - **Corn**: The corn futures price continued to fluctuate weakly. The US corn was under pressure, and the domestic market focused on the supply in the circulation link [40] - **Live Pig**: The futures price continued to correct. It is recommended for the industry to hedge at high prices [41] - **Egg**: The spot price fell. The 26 - year - later futures contracts are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 25 [42] - **Cotton**: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. The downstream demand was weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated. The domestic sugar production had uncertainties. The price was expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season output estimate [45] - **Timber**: The futures price fluctuated. The supply - demand situation improved, and a long - biased strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price fell. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route index is expected to decline significantly this week. It is recommended to hold short positions [20] - **Stock Index**: A - shares fluctuated lower. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short - term [49]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US non-farm payrolls for July showed a significant drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and previous months' data was revised downwards by 258,000 jobs [2][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.25%, while hourly wages increased year-on-year to 3.91%, indicating a mixed labor market scenario [2][3] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating three cuts totaling 75 basis points by December 2025, reflecting concerns over economic weakness [6][8] Group 2: Chemical Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a concentration of production capacity, with leading companies increasing their market share, resulting in a more orderly supply environment [19][22] - Demand for polyester filament remains stable, with a seasonal uptick expected in the second half of the year as inventory levels are low [20][22] - The cost pressures from raw materials are expected to ease, with oil price fluctuations influencing the cost structure of polyester filament production [21][22] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a recovery in public fund holdings, with a notable increase in the market value of heavy holdings, indicating a structural rebound [25][28] - Recent policy changes in drug procurement are expected to favor quality over price, potentially stabilizing profit margins for innovative drug and device companies [26][28] - The medical device market is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in tendering activities, particularly in medical imaging and rehabilitation equipment [27][28] Group 4: North Exchange Market Insights - The North Exchange market has seen a decline in trading activity, with the average daily turnover dropping to approximately 251 billion yuan [31][32] - The overall market valuation remains high, with the North Exchange's price-to-earnings ratio at around 50.9 times, indicating potential for long-term investment value [32][34] - The introduction of new indices and steady progress in IPOs are expected to maintain a high level of market interest and activity [34]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector showed slight strength today, with companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Jintian Copper, and Western Gold experiencing notable gains. The market sentiment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and the recent disappointing non-farm payroll data, which has increased expectations for rate cuts this year [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates, but dissenting voices against maintaining rates have emerged [1]. - Non-farm payroll data significantly underperformed expectations, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts within the year [1]. - The geopolitical tensions and ongoing global trade disputes have enhanced the investment appeal of gold, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on companies with production growth and performance releases in the gold sector [1]. - The recent U.S.-EU tariff negotiations resulted in a 15% import tariff on EU products, lower than the previously threatened 30%, which may reduce global trade friction risks [1]. - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold, combined with a weakening U.S. dollar, is expected to support a rise in gold prices [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting trends in gold and copper prices, indicating a potential survival strategy in the commodities market [1] - Gold has shown a bullish trend with a weekly closing increase, suggesting a possible breakout, while silver is negatively impacted by the copper market, leading to a mispricing opportunity for retail investors [1] - The gold-silver ratio has surpassed the 90 mark again, indicating a shift in market dynamics, with expectations of interest rate cuts supporting gold's upward movement [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the fear of stagflation in the market, which could replicate the bullish market conditions seen at the end of last year, providing a potential roadmap for future investments in gold [1] - A detailed analysis of data and technical indicators is provided, offering insights into the upcoming week's market trends and investment strategies [1]

8月4日，A股走势分化，军工、银行、有色等板块走强。其中，有色50ETF（159652）震荡上行，截至10:29，涨1.05%。资金跑步进场，有色50ETF （159652）盘中再获资金净申购！ | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 历?交警负 | 估自权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 植物理研 | 3.12% | 18.8717. | 14.54% | | 2 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色金属 | 0.08% | 28.34 Z | 6.79% | | 3 | 603993 | 洛阳領ル | 有色金属 | 0.33% | 6.69 Z | 4.66% | | 4 | 603799 | 华友钻 V | 有色会居 | -0.88% | 6.47 亿 | 4.46% | | ਦ | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 有色全居 | -0.41% | 2.80 Z | 4.32% | | 6 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 有色全居 | 4.41% | 14.13 Z ...