截至2025年12月23日 09:34，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)强势上涨1.27%，成分股山东黄金(01787)上涨3.26%，潮宏基(002345)上涨3.17%，山东黄 金(600547)上涨2.97%，老铺黄金(06181)，白银有色(601212)等个股跟涨。 黄金股ETF(517520)上涨1.55%。拉长时间看，今年以来，黄金股ETF涨幅超96%。 12月23日，COMEX黄金升破4500美元/盎司，现货黄金升破4468美元/盎司，均创历史新高。 机构表示，美联储政策预期与地缘不确定性构成当前金价的核心支撑。一方面，美联储内部对政策路径仍存在分歧，"短期分歧、长期趋宽"的政策叙事不断 强化市场对宽松周期的预期；另一方面，地缘政治演变持续为市场注入避险溢价，巩固了贵金属的配置价值。 国泰海通证券称，展望2026年，我们认为央行购金和黄金ETF持仓份额上升，美联储仍有降息预期，且日本加息的背景下，美元指数走弱或将持续，多因素 支撑黄金价格。 素有金价放大器之称的黄金股ETF（517520），在金价上涨的阶段呈现出更高弹性！买黄金资产，就买弹性更大，流动性佳的黄金股ETF（517520 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-23） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | 震荡 | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | | 升温，现实需求疲弱。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度，最 | | | | | 直接的影响就是买单出口被"限制"，对于明年钢材出口 | | | | | 的预期下调，同时关注是否匹配粗钢产量管控政策，对于 | | | | | 原料而言是确定性的利空。策略上，短期因补库和宏观情 | | | | | 绪造成的反弹具备逢高介入空单的价值，突破前高紧止 | | | | 震荡 | 损。 | | | 煤焦 | | 煤焦：产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政 | | | | | 策的预期，煤焦仍有支撑。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度， | | | | | 最直接 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the bull market in precious metals will continue to advance, driven by the dual engines of "financial attributes + industrial demand", with significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will maintain a volatile upward trend, while silver will show a strong pattern driven by both "industry + finance" [2][115][116]. - Gold is expected to have a high of around $5000 per ounce in 2026. It is recommended to use gold as the core strategic defensive variety in the 2026 asset portfolio to achieve risk hedging and value preservation [2][115]. - Silver's price increase space will be more prominent in 2026, with greater room for imagination. Its high - volatility characteristics are expected to continue [2][116]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Gold: Multifaceted Hedge and Long - Term Allocation Value Remains - **Global "Broad Fiscal" Cycle Resonance**: In 2026, major global economies are expected to continue the broad fiscal cycle, with the US, Europe, and Japan showing different fiscal expansion patterns. The US's "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit, and the deficit rate is expected to rise to about 7.0% in 2026. Germany will drive the mild expansion of the euro - zone's fiscal policy, and Japan will see a moderate increase in the deficit rate. The broad fiscal cycle has intensified concerns about fiscal sustainability, pushing up long - term bond yields and eroding the credit of major currencies, highlighting the value of gold as a "ballast stone" [7][9][10][11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut Cycle**: The Fed will continue the interest rate cut cycle in 2026, with a "stable at first, then rapid" rhythm. Economic and debt pressures will drive the need for a low - interest - rate environment. The change of the Fed chairman will be a key variable, with a dovish new chairman expected to accelerate the interest rate cut process. The Fed's technical balance - sheet expansion and its combination with the US Treasury's debt issuance strategy will inject liquidity and reduce the financing and holding costs of precious metals. However, concerns about the Fed's policy independence remain [24][33][43][44]. - **US Mid - term Elections**: The "pendulum effect" of the 2026 US mid - term elections will reduce trade and geopolitical fluctuations. Although the overall tariff risk is lower, short - term attention should be paid to potential tariff increases in key industries, and the risk of sudden outbreaks in Sino - US trade conflicts still exists [48][52][54]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, which is a long - term strategic adjustment of the currency reserve structure. Emerging market central banks, as the main buyers, still have room to increase their gold reserves. In 2026, central bank net purchases are expected to remain above 800 tons, providing strong support for the gold market [56][61][62]. - **Gold Investment Scale**: In 2025, gold investment demand was strong, but the current proportion of gold in global asset management is still low, and there is still a large space for growth in gold investment scale [63][64][67]. Silver: Dual - Engine Drive of "Industry + Finance" and Strategic Resource Value Highlights - **Supply Constraints**: Global silver supply growth is sluggish. Structural factors such as the decline in mine grade, the lack of new large - scale silver mines, and the fact that silver is mostly a by - product of other metals limit production growth. In 2026, the production of associated silver may be affected by the smelting restrictions of copper, lead, and zinc [70][72][75]. - **Diversified Demand**: - **Industrial Demand**: The demand for silver in the photovoltaic, automotive, and data center and artificial intelligence industries is expected to continue to grow. The photovoltaic industry will drive silver consumption due to the increase in installed capacity, the automotive industry will see increased demand due to electrification, and the development of data centers and artificial intelligence will also boost silver demand [82][86][87]. - **Investment Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for silver increased significantly, and the position of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, continued to rise. There is still room for the position to return to the historical high, which will provide upward momentum for the silver price [96]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: Since 2021, the global silver market has been in a supply shortage pattern, and this situation is expected to continue in 2026, providing upward momentum for the silver price [69][101][102]. - **Low Inventory**: In 2025, the inventories of major silver markets were at multi - year lows. Low inventory will amplify price fluctuations and may trigger a squeeze - out market [103][105][108]. - **Strategic Resource Attribute**: Major countries around the world have introduced policies to manage silver as a strategic resource, which will have a complex impact on the silver price and supply - demand structure in the short and long term [109][110][111]. 2026 Precious Metals Market Outlook - Gold will maintain a volatile upward trend, and it is recommended to use it as a core strategic defensive variety in the asset portfolio. Silver will show a strong pattern driven by both "industry + finance", with greater price increase potential and high - volatility characteristics [115][116].

面对新高，怎么办？别冲动追高！我的策略是：长期看好，等待回调。 黄金的长期逻辑（去美元化、 央行购金）依然坚固，但短期急涨后，更适合等待市场情绪冷静、出现技术性回调时，再分批布局。 那么问题来了： 你认为黄金这轮牛市，是避险情绪主导的短期冲刺，还是美元信用松动的长期起点？ 评论区聊聊你的真知灼见！ 我是帮主郑重，关注我，看懂资产波动背后的核心逻辑。 朋友们注意，一个历史性的数字诞生了：现货黄金突破4449美元！单日暴涨超2.4%，天花板又被捅破 了！ 为什么这么猛？两个引擎在轰鸣：一是全球地缘局势紧张，避险资金涌入"诺亚方舟"；二是市场对明年 美联储降息的预期持续升温，持有黄金的机会成本下降。这不是偶然，这是对不确定性的集中定价。 ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a shift in global monetary policy towards easing and a structurally tight supply-demand dynamic [1] - The proportion of global central banks cutting interest rates has increased from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% by October 2025 [1] - Global gold physical holdings in ETFs have seen a net inflow of 674.2 tons this year, indicating strong investment demand [1] - The current geopolitical risk index is at an all-time high since records began in 1900, contributing to an increase in safe-haven premiums [1] Group 2: Company Specifics - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., as a globally positioned gold enterprise, has high-quality gold mines in China and overseas, with a total resource amount of 425 tons [3] - Sichuan Gold, the largest gold mining company in Sichuan Province, holds gold ore resources amounting to 987 million tons, corresponding to a gold metal quantity of 3,140 kilograms [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the significant increase in China's purchase of Russian gold reflects a strategic move towards de-dollarization between the two countries [1][5]. - China has purchased a record amount of Russian gold, spending $961 million in November alone, with total purchases reaching $1.9 billion in the first eleven months of the year, which is over nine times last year's total [1][3]. - The rapid growth in gold purchases from almost negligible levels to a ninefold increase indicates a strong and consistent trend rather than a one-time spike [3]. Group 2 - Western sanctions have led to a situation where Russian gold is banned from being purchased by Western countries, allowing China to acquire it at a discount while mitigating risks associated with dollar assets [5]. - This gold trade exemplifies a restructuring of the global financial landscape, highlighting the increasing steps towards de-dollarization [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar's dominance in the international monetary system, highlighting a shift towards a multipolar currency landscape driven by various geopolitical and economic factors [4][5][10]. Group 1: Dollar's Decline - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, while gold prices surged nearly 68% during the same period [4][7]. - The "sacred myth" of the dollar as a safe asset has been shattered, as evidenced by simultaneous declines in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar itself amid rising global trade tensions and the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" [6][8]. - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt have intensified, with the federal debt exceeding $38 trillion, leading to rising interest payments and a diminishing fiscal discipline [7][8]. Group 2: De-dollarization Trends - The global movement towards "de-dollarization" has shifted from isolated attempts to a coordinated effort, particularly in trade settlements, as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar [8][9]. - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves dropped from 57.79% at the end of Q1 2025 to 56.32% by the end of Q2 2025, marking a 30-year low [8][9]. - Gold has emerged as a preferred asset in the context of de-dollarization, with its share in global reserves rising to 20% in 2024, surpassing the euro [9]. Group 3: Future of the International Monetary System - The decline of the dollar's dominance is expected to lead to a more diversified international monetary system, although this transition will be gradual and complex [10][11]. - The euro and the renminbi are identified as the most competitive alternative currencies to the dollar, but they also face significant challenges [11]. - The future international monetary system is likely to evolve into a structure where multiple currencies share the functions previously held by the dollar, reducing reliance on a single currency anchor [11].

2025年末，美国国债市场接连传来两记重锤。 美国财政部最新数据显示，中国在10月再度减持118亿美元美债，总持仓降至6887亿美元，这个数字创下了自 2008年以来的最低纪录，意味着中国的美债持有量一夜回到了17年前的水平。 中国减持美债的背后，是对美国政策风险、地缘政治冲突以及美债自身安全性的长期担忧。 美国持续膨胀的财政赤字，以及动辄将美元和金融体系"武器 化"的行为，让任何理性的主权国家都不得不重新审视将"鸡蛋"全放在美国这个"篮子"里的风险。 如果说中国的减持是"静水流深"的战略性布局，那么加拿大的举动则更像是一场"激烈摇摆"的战术性反击，其象征意义更为深远。 回顾2025年，加拿大在 美债市场上的操作堪称"过山车"：4月，它曾大幅抛售578亿美元美债，单月减持比例超过13%；5月又进行了回补；到了10月，再次重拳出击，抛售567亿美 元。 这种反复无常、力度巨大的操作，远超正常的投资调整范畴。 其直接导火索，是美国特朗普政府施加的贸易压力。 2025年3月，特朗普宣布对所有进口汽车 及关键零部件征收25%关税，这对加拿大经济被视作"致命冲击"。 随后，美国又推出"对等关税"行政令。 作为反击，加拿 ...

美联储若被政治化，美元信用的一个重要支柱就会动摇，谁还敢无限制地以美元计价借贷并持有美国资产。 把三件事连在一起看，就不是三道孤立的新闻，而是一条链条，链条在受力，断裂的可能性在增加，这是全球金融再定价的开端。 美债曾是世界的避风港，但避风港也会漏水，赤字、债务和政治不确定性是漏水的裂缝，而市场在修补或者撤退。 去美元化是过程不是口号，国家层面的资产配置调整是实务，是在经济与政治双重维度下的必然选择。 那么，这些动作将带来什么后果？第一，美元融资成本将上升，美国财政的外部可持续性面临更大考验。 第二，全球资产再平衡，黄金、欧元、一篮子货币或替代资产的吸引力上升，资金流向会重构。 中国大幅减持美债，还是全球债市的一声惊雷？美国盟友疯狂出逃，特朗普更换美联储主席提议如同挑衅全球信任，这三件事到底在较劲什么，谁在收场。 中国的减持不是赌气而是策略，外储配置在调整与分散的逻辑下进行，中国自有盘算与风险管理的理由明显。 数据摆在那儿，持仓从高位向下，这是多年的慢动作，是在重塑外汇安全垫，而不是一夜之间的激进甩卖。 中国连续增持黄金，这一动作像给家里保险柜再上把锁，既反映国际金融预期，又是一种避险的信号，外行看起来像胆怯 ...

白银的涨势几乎呈直线上升，从10月9日首次站上50美元/盎司，到12月9日突破60美元大关，再到12月22日冲破68美元，这种涨势根本停不下来。 就连 传统的"老大哥"黄金也不得不佩服这位"小弟"的惊人表现。 那么，到底是什么力量在推动黄金和白银如此强势上涨呢？ 其实这不是单一因素推动，而是多重利好叠加的结果。 第一个核心推手就是美联储的宽松货币政策。 2025年以来，美联储已经累计降息75个基点，12月刚刚把联邦基金利率降到3.5?.75%，还重启了扩表。 简单来说，就是美联储一直在"放水"，让市场上的钱变多了。 钱变多了，美元就容易贬值，而黄金白银作为硬通货，自然成了对抗美元贬值的最佳选 择。 第二个关键因素来自地缘政治的紧张局势。 最近全球并不太平，以色列计划再次攻击伊朗，美国在委内瑞拉海岸加强封锁，俄乌局势也没有彻底平息。 这种时候，投资者都会追求安全的资产，黄金白银的避险属性就被彻底激活了。 就像遇到风浪时大家都会往安全的地方躲，全球资金现在都在往贵金属 里挤，进一步推高了价格。 两个月赚了16万！ 深圳水贝的一位投资者怎么也没想到，自己10月初花10万多块钱买入的50公斤白银板料，竟然在年底变成了 ...