盛宝银行驻新加坡首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示："市场目前将美国对伊朗的袭击视为可控事件， 而非全面战争的开始。避险资金流入有限，说明投资者认为这只是一次性升级，不会干扰全球石油供应 或贸易。""市场的反应可能不是因为冲突升级本身，而是对长期不确定性的缓解预期。如果伊朗的核能 力被显著削弱，部分投资者可能将其解读为'伪装下的降温'——是地缘政治风险的减少，而非增加。但 话虽如此，若伊朗采取报复或威胁霍尔木兹海峡运输安全，市场情绪将迅速转向，并迫使投资者重新定 价地缘风险。" 道明证券驻新加坡高级亚太利率策略师Prashant Newnaha表示："至少可以说，市场对对周末事件的反应 是温和的。价格走势暗示市场预期这是一次短暂的冲突，冲突升级最终将走向冲突缓和。" 智通财经APP获悉，随着全球投资者正屏息观望伊朗是否会对美国袭击其核设施进行报复，全球股市周 一下滑，油价一度触及五个月高位，美元走强。 尽管中东局势在过去这个周末升级，但市场反应迄今仍然克制，投资者仍处于观望状态。以下是一些市 场分析师对此事件的评论。 澳大利亚联邦银行外汇策略师Carol Kong表示："到目前为止，油价对不断升级的 ...

美国国内或面临恐袭 智通财经APP了解到，美国对伊朗实施史无前例的空袭后，伊朗誓言报复美国与以色列、以色列攻击毫 无收手迹象，美国国内面临的"恐怖活动威胁"指数全面升级，伊朗国内封锁霍尔木兹海峡的呼声愈发响 亮，全球交易员以及各国政府的经济政策制定者们在一瞬间皆草木皆兵。随着伊朗政府主导的新一 轮"报复浪潮"箭在弦上，全球股债汇乃至大宗商品交易市场24小时关注着德黑兰方面有关报复美国与以 色列方面的一举一动。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普领导的美国政府在上周末决意动用大型钻地炸弹，这是华盛顿在数十年敌对后 首次对伊朗采取直接军事行动，使得中东局势进入未知领域，并在特朗普政府主导的贸易战已令世界经 济高度不确定之际进一步全球抬升地缘政治风险，直接威胁到全球能源供给体系。 亚洲周一早盘，国际基准布伦特原油一度大涨近6%，至每桶 81.40 美元。华尔街分析师们纷纷警告， 若伊朗采取进一步报复行动来大规模管控甚至全面封锁霍尔木兹海峡，国际油价基准——布伦特原油期 货价格逼近100美元指日可待，这一轮油价猛烈涨势始于6月13日以色列对于伊朗的突然袭击。此外，周 一美元走强，美国三大股指期货下跌，风险资产之一的比特币自5月初 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> | 名称 | 代码 . | 现价 | 张跌涨幅结 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 欧线集运2 ... ec2508 | | 1875.0 | -91.9 -4.67% | | 2 多品硅2508 ps2508 | | 30615 | -1045 -3.30% | | 3 菜籽2507 | RS507 | 5125 | -153 -2.90% | | 4 尿素2509 | 60580 | 1711 | -35 -2.00% | | 5 鸡蛋2508 | 142508 | 3569 | -53 -1.46% | | 6 甲西享2509 MA509 | | 2504 | -34 -1.34% | 交割品牌调整，纸浆、原木涨幅居前，纸浆盘中一度涨近4%，但日内逐步回落！集运、多晶硅领跌，集运盘中一度跌超6%，多晶硅跌破3 万关口，再创上市以来新低！ 光大期货：西南复产上量，多晶硅身陷囹圄 周一，多晶硅延续上周跌势，价格进一步逼近整数关口，日内跌幅超2%，并伴随10%以上增仓。现货价格来看，多晶硅P型下跌1300元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing conflict and missile attacks, the Israeli market is thriving, with the TA-125 index reaching new historical highs and showing resilience compared to global markets [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The TA-125 index has seen a continuous rise, with an increase of approximately 8% since the outbreak of conflict on October 7, 2023, while the S&P 500 has slightly declined [7] - The total return of the TA-125 index from the onset of the Gaza conflict to June 12, 2023, was about 46%, outperforming the S&P 500's 40% increase during the same period [5] - Local investors in Israel are showing confidence, with the market remaining stable even after significant military actions, indicating a pattern of quick rebounds following initial declines [5][6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Israeli investors have developed a familiarity with conflict, often viewing wartime conditions as buying opportunities rather than reasons to sell [5][6] - The recent market uptrend suggests that investors are not only buying on dips but are also willing to chase higher prices, indicating strong bullish sentiment [6] - Analysts believe that local investors are betting on the weakening of Iranian influence in the region due to Israeli military actions, which has contributed to the market's positive performance [7][8] Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite the ongoing military mobilization and conflict, Israel's economy has shown remarkable resilience, with a low unemployment rate near 3% and continued economic growth [5][8] - The chief economist at IBI Investment Company noted that while the budget deficit has widened, the overall economic stability remains intact [5] - The changing security landscape around Israel has led to a decrease in perceived geopolitical risk, potentially paving the way for increased foreign investment once the situation stabilizes [8][10] Group 4: Long-term Considerations - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the current military actions, with estimates suggesting that the conflict could be costly, potentially limiting Israel's ability to engage in prolonged warfare [9][10] - The former governor of the Bank of Israel highlighted that the economic impact of the conflict will largely depend on its duration, with short-term engagements being manageable but longer conflicts posing significant challenges [10] - Unresolved issues related to the Palestinian conflict and the potential for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program remain long-term risks for the Israeli market [10][11]

2025.06. 23 本文字数：2235，阅读时长大约4分钟 上周，在以伊冲突升级持续下，黄金意外表现平平，美元指数反而录得一个月来最大周涨幅，似乎重 现"避险"属性。 世界黄金协会最近的一项调查发现，地缘政治不确定性和潜在的贸易冲突，是新兴经济体央行以远快 于发达经济体的速度转向黄金的主要原因。 美银更预测，即便抛开地缘政治风险，金价也将获得继续上涨的动力。该行分析师在最新报告中写 道， 诚然，在全球动荡时期，黄金通常被视为避险资产，但战争和地缘政治冲突通常不是金价的长 期增长动力 。 值得注意的是，黄金今年以来的强劲上涨主要得益于各国央行购入黄金以对冲美国财 政前景恶化这一趋势。美银预计，各国央行的黄金持有量目前相当于美国未偿还公共债务的18%左 右，高于10年前的13%。 但分析师普遍认为，这只是暂时现象，金价将重启涨势，美元传统"避险资产"地位仍将继续受到美国 关税政策和财政前景的拖累。 金价后续有望冲击4000美元 上周，现货黄金收报3368美元/盎司附近，周跌幅达1.8%，为三周以来首次下跌，并录得6月12日以 来最低水平。此前，以伊冲突爆发之初，现货黄金曾一度逼近3450美元的前期历史高点。C ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany and Italy are facing increasing calls to repatriate their gold reserves stored in the U.S. amid concerns over geopolitical risks and the independence of the Federal Reserve, with over $245 billion worth of gold stored in New York [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Germany and Italy hold the second and third largest national gold reserves globally, with 3,352 tons and 2,452 tons respectively, primarily stored in the New York Federal Reserve for historical reasons [2]. - The accumulation of gold reserves by Western European countries occurred during the post-World War II economic boom, reflecting trade surpluses with the U.S. and serving as a hedge against potential Soviet threats [2]. Group 2: Political Support for Repatriation - The idea of repatriating gold is gaining support across the political spectrum in Germany, with figures from both left and right advocating for the return of gold to ensure control without third-party risks [3]. - In 2013, the German central bank decided to repatriate half of its gold reserves, transferring 674 tons from Paris and New York to Frankfurt, although 37% of its reserves remain in New York [3]. Group 3: Italy's Policy Shift - Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who previously supported the repatriation of gold reserves, has remained silent on the issue since taking office, likely to maintain a friendly relationship with the U.S. [4]. - Current sentiments within Italy suggest that the geographical location of gold storage is of "relative importance," despite concerns about the reliability of the U.S. under the Trump administration [5]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - The German central bank emphasizes that it will regularly assess the storage locations of its gold reserves based on safety and liquidity, maintaining that the New York Federal Reserve is a trusted partner for gold storage [5].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普周末卷入以伊大战，一改周五晚间的措辞，全球多方谴责，避险情绪或 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 升温，上周欧洲央行连续降息、7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确 | | | | 定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。近期白银走高主要是缘自资金情绪，金银比 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 支撑，考虑到 | | | | 白银的品种特性-快涨快跌，操作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 传统消费淡季深入，短期铜多单止盈兑现离场，全球经济受中东战乱和中美贸易摩 | | 铜 | 承压 | 擦影响预期偏弱，产业客户积极逢高布局卖出套保，锁定合理利润。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【77800，78800】 | | | | 需求淡季，国内锌库存累库，锌震荡回落，测试前低支撑，长期看，锌供增需 | | 锌 | 承压 | 弱，把握逢高空 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 2985 | 6 | 热卷01 | 3107 | d | | 螺纹05 | 2987 | 8 | 热卷05 | 3100 | 7 | | 螺纹10 | 2992 | 6 | 热卷10 | 3116 | 13 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2920 | 10 | 张家港废钢 | 2130 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3110 | 10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3090 | 0 | 热卷:上海 | 3200 | 10 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3130 | 10 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3220 | 10 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3180 | 10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3400 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 螺纹01:上 ...

Group 1 - Analysts believe the recent performance of gold is a temporary phenomenon, and gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend, while the dollar's status as a traditional "safe-haven asset" will continue to be undermined by U.S. tariff policies and fiscal outlook [1][3] - Last week, spot gold closed at approximately $3,368 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of 1.8%, the first drop in three weeks, and the lowest level since June 12 [3] - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that geopolitical risk premiums for gold have rapidly dissipated since mid-June, but this may be a false signal; historically, gold prices have averaged a 3% increase during geopolitical events [3][4] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's recent survey found that geopolitical uncertainty and potential trade conflicts are primary reasons for emerging market central banks shifting to gold at a faster pace than developed economies [4] - Bank of America predicts that even without geopolitical risks, gold prices will continue to rise, driven by central bank purchases to hedge against deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects [5] - Bank of America estimates that current central bank gold holdings are about 18% of U.S. public debt, up from 13% a decade ago, and anticipates gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce next year, a 19% increase from current levels [5] Group 3 - The dollar index experienced a rare increase, rebounding last week with its largest weekly gain in a month, driven by rising demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating Middle East conflicts [6] - Despite the recent rise, market participants believe the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is under significant pressure due to ongoing concerns over U.S. trade policies and fiscal deficits [6] - The complex sentiment towards the dollar is reflected in U.S. Treasury yields, which have shown little change since the onset of the conflict, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.39% [6]

Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain the largest shadow over the market, with the conflict between Israel and Iran escalating due to U.S. intervention, adding unpredictable variables to the situation [1] - The direct involvement of the U.S. has fundamentally changed the nature and scale of the conflict, potentially leading to significant sell-offs in risk assets, surges in safe-haven assets, and volatility in energy prices [1] - Oil prices have retreated after hitting key resistance levels, but geopolitical premiums persist, with any escalation in conflict likely to rapidly increase oil prices, impacting global inflation and consumer spending [1] Economic Data - The release of high-quality economic data this week, although limited in quantity, is expected to significantly influence market sentiment [2] - The U.S. first-quarter GDP data is anticipated to show an annualized negative growth of -0.2%, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and potentially igniting discussions about a recession [2] - The market is assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating potential negative effects of trade policy on economic activity [3] Inflation Indicators - The core PCE data for May, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a month-over-month increase of +0.1%, which is relatively mild [3] - If the data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while a surprise increase could extinguish hopes for rate cuts and lead to significant market adjustments [3] - CPI data from Canada, Australia, and Japan will also provide insights into their respective central banks' policy paths and influence currency performance [3] Central Bank Communications - The speeches of major central bank officials this week are a significant focus for the market [4] - Most central banks have adopted a cautious stance amid uncertain global economic prospects and persistent inflation, with the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cutting rates due to domestic economic pressures [4] - Key speeches from ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, and others will provide the latest assessments of the economic situation, inflation outlook, and future policy directions [4] Market Reactions - The resurgence of the U.S. dollar is noteworthy, as it often gains favor as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global uncertainty [5] - If geopolitical risks continue to escalate or economic data indicates more challenges for the global economy, demand for the dollar as a safe haven may further support its strength [5] - The Swiss franc has come under pressure following the SNB's rate cut, complicating its future trajectory [5] Overall Market Environment - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility due to geopolitical tensions, potential economic data impacts, and central bank signals [6] - Investors need to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly any indications of U.S. positions, as well as the interpretation of U.S. GDP and PCE data for insights into economic direction and inflation pressures [6] - Central bank leaders' speeches will provide a window into future monetary policy paths, with a need for investors to maintain cash positions and utilize hedging tools to manage potential tail risks [6]