| 品牌 | 今日金价 (元 / 克) | 工费情 | | --- | --- | --- | | 老凤祥 | 1620 | 普通蒜 | | | | で、 駅 / ア | | 周大福 | 1618 | 素樹蒜 克, 3 元 / | | 周生生 | 1614 | 常规宗 克, I 元 / 作 | | 菜百首饰 | 1550 | 统- | | | | 无精品 | | 中国黄金 | 1568 | 新用F 그πλ 折, | | | | 러 | 国际现货黄金（伦敦金现）：5261.07-5311.06 美元 / 盎司，单日涨幅 1.74% 国内现货黄金（黄金 T+D）：1180.42-1186.5 元 / 克，单日上涨 17.41 元 国内品牌金饰：1550-1620 元 / 克，头部品牌突破 1600 元 / 克关口 核心驱动力：美联储降息预期升温叠加中东地缘局势升级，共同推动金价创年内新高，该观点综合自抖音精选 10 位头部黄金分析师 | | | P | | --- | --- | --- | | 老庙黄金 | 1612 | 商场会 非会 | | 潮宏基 | 1585 | 珪琅采 元 / 60 元 | | 深圳水贝 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 27 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 82 元至 6342 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6450 元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （+110），华南瓶片价格 6490 元/吨（+90）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1965 手至 6.05 万手，空头持仓减少 1374 手至 6.56 万手。 【重要资讯】 30.46 万吨，环比-2.07 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.7%，环比-4.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5543 元， 环比-45 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-40 元/吨，环比+58 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China has been adjusted upwards for the first time in 2026, exceeding the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton, indicating a trend of rising fuel prices [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price of 92 gasoline and 0 diesel has increased by 0.07 yuan per liter, leading to a slight rise in fuel costs for consumers over the next two weeks [3]. - For a typical 50-liter fuel tank, private car owners will spend approximately 3.5 yuan more to fill up [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The international crude oil prices have shown a trend of rising initially and then falling, but the average price has increased compared to the previous period, with the reference crude oil change rate shifting from negative to positive [1][2]. - The current pricing cycle has transitioned from a "zero increase, zero decrease, and one pause" pattern to "one increase, zero decrease, and one pause" for 2026 [2][3]. - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC+ halting production increases are expected to support supply, indicating a higher probability of further price increases in the next round of adjustments [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The alumina market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a slight increase, while spot prices are declining due to oversupply and reduced demand from downstream buyers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 23, the main alumina contract (2601) closed at 2520 yuan, up 19 yuan, reflecting a 0.76% increase [1]. - Total trading volume for 11 contracts reached 503,529 lots, an increase of 59,007 lots or 13.27% compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Open interest decreased by 9,915 lots, a decline of 1.50%, totaling 650,562 lots [1]. Group 2: Spot Prices - Domestic spot prices for alumina have decreased, with prices in various regions reported as follows: - South China: 2780-2830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - East China: 2690-2730 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Southwest: 2785-2825 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [1]. - Northwest: 2920-2960 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, while northern mines are gradually resuming production, the stability of supply remains inadequate, and domestic ore inventories are low [2]. - Alumina imports have increased by 22.87% year-on-year, which has weakened price support on the cost side [2]. - Demand from downstream aluminum plants is decreasing due to high inventory levels, leading to reduced purchasing interest for spot alumina [2]. - The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply, with social inventories accumulating and cash costs still allowing for profit margins [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of MSK's WK45 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote of $2350 during the session on October 21st boosted market sentiment, driving the EC futures market up significantly. The EC2512 contract closed at 1769.3 points on that day, a 5.19% increase from the previous day's close. The SCFI European line rate on October 17th was $1145/TEU, a 7.2% week - on - week increase, and the latest SCFIS European line index released after the market on Monday was 1140.38 points, a 10.5% week - on - week increase, exceeding market expectations. The 2510 contract is repairing its discount upwards [3][5]. - The spot freight rate spread among major shipping companies has widened again. Some shipping companies have lower SPOT prices due to cargo - booking pressure, but the fundamentals are expected to gradually improve given the good long - term cargo receipts of shipping companies. Different shipping companies have different price adjustment strategies. It is expected that the freight rate center of shipping companies in the second half of October will move up compared to the first half, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price increases [6]. - In terms of demand, cargo volume continues to decline seasonally, and shipments from November to December are expected to gradually improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the shipment rhythm. On the supply side, the weekly average capacity of Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports in October, November, and December is 244,500, 268,400, and 279,500 TEU respectively. There are four additional sailings cancelled in November by OA, and the weekly average capacity has decreased by 6.5% compared to this week's schedule. OA continues the strategy of multiple ship - changing operations in December [6]. - In terms of risks, the Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, which involves disarmament. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent negotiations. Recently, China and the US have stated that they will restart tariff negotiations, and the sentiment has eased. Attention should also be paid to the progress of these negotiations [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Performance**: On October 21st, the EC2512 contract closed at 1769.3 points, up 5.19% from the previous day. Other contracts such as EC2510, EC2602, etc. also had different degrees of price increases and changes in trading volume and open interest [3]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts have changed. For example, the spread of EC10 - EC12 is - 634, down 52.4; the spread of EC12 - EC02 is 201, up 41.3 [3]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index is 1140.38 points, a 10.52% week - on - week increase and a 48.27% year - on - year decrease. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1310.32 points, a 12.92% week - on - week increase and a 38.63% year - on - year decrease. Different routes have different freight rate changes [3]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract is $56.94 per barrel, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease and an 18.28% year - on - year decrease. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract is $60.8 per barrel, a 0.59% week - on - week decrease and a 17.5% year - on - year decrease [3]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The release of MSK's high - price quote, the increase in the SCFI European line rate, and the progress of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and Sino - US tariff negotiations have all affected the market. The supply and demand fundamentals of the shipping market are in a state of change, with seasonal changes in demand and capacity adjustments on the supply side [5][6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold long positions in the EC2512 contract and continue to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread long positions, and consider partial profit - taking on rallies [7][8][9]. 3.5 Industry News - The US has listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded [9]. - EU member states support phasing out Russian natural gas imports by January 2028 [10]. - The Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, and Israel has appointed a representative for its command center in the US to oversee the implementation of the Gaza agreement [11]. - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that indirect contacts with the US are still ongoing, and formal negotiations have not started [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The concern about the geopolitical situation in the Middle East due to Israel's attack on Hamas in Qatar supports oil prices. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend of overnight crude oil driven by geopolitical factors. With the shipping industry approaching the Christmas stocking season, the increasing shipping demand will partially boost the fuel oil price. The FU2510 is expected to trade in the range of 2780 - 2830, and the LU2511 in the range of 3340 - 3390 [3]. - The supply - side is affected by geopolitical risks, while the demand is neutral. The potential tightening of sanctions against Russia is a positive factor, while the optimism on the demand side needs verification and the relatively weak upstream crude oil prices are negative factors [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental outlook is neutral as geopolitical concerns support oil prices. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is positive. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 142 million barrels to 2330.9 million barrels in the week of September 3, which is negative. The price is near the 20 - day line which is flat, showing a neutral signal. The high - sulfur main position is short and the short positions are decreasing, negative; the low - sulfur main position is long and the long positions are decreasing, positive [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Positive factors include the potential tightening of sanctions against Russia. Negative factors are that the optimism on the demand side needs verification and the upstream crude oil prices are weak. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The FU main contract futures price rose from 2756 to 2789, an increase of 33 or 1.20%. The LU main contract futures price rose from 3367 to 3392, an increase of 25 or 0.74%. The FU basis increased from 91 to 127, an increase of 35 or 38.59%. The LU basis increased from 80 to 82, an increase of 2 or 2.90% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 4.00 to 478.00, a decrease of 0.83%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2.00 to 498.00, a decrease of 0.40%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 7.72 to 396.89, an increase of 1.98%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged at 474.50. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 7.72 to 374.56, an increase of 2.10%. The price of Singapore diesel increased by 4.93 to 644.38, an increase of 0.77% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 142 million barrels to 2330.9 million barrels in the week of September 3. From June 25 to September 3, the inventory showed fluctuations, with decreases in some weeks and increases in others [3][8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The report presents the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical analysis of the spread is not provided [12].

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market has shown positive results from a low-position long strategy, with prices rebounding after reaching entry points around 3315-25 USD/oz [1] - There is a strong market expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, exceeding 85%, contributing to a weaker dollar and increased investment in gold due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices operating above the upper band; MACD shows a bullish crossover, while RSI indicates an overbought condition [3] - The 4-hour chart also shows expanding Bollinger Bands, with prices near the upper band; MACD is bullish, and RSI remains in an overbought state, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3450 [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates similar trends, with prices near the upper band and a bullish MACD; however, there is a warning for potential overbought pullbacks, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3450 [3] Group 3: Future Trading Strategies - Aggressive traders are advised to enter long positions near the 3300 USD/oz support after stabilization, while conservative traders should consider long positions around 3270-3280 USD/oz [4] - For short positions, aggressive traders should look to sell near 3450 USD/oz resistance, while conservative traders may consider shorting around 3485-3475 USD/oz [4] - Specific trading recommendations for various gold instruments include light shorting on high prices for futures, buying on dips for linked products, and a dollar-cost averaging strategy for long-term investments [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asphalt valuation is expected to be neutral to weak due to mediocre fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [4][5] - In terms of strategies, consider partial profit - taking for reverse spreads in the inter - period and for short - cracking in the inter - variety [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 28.8%, a 4.0% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly domestic asphalt processing profit was - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. Next week, there is an expected slight increase in supply in some areas [4] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers purchase low - price asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north and south markets has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. In Shandong, continuous rainfall has hindered terminal demand, while in East China, some terminal projects are under concentrated construction, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt has increased by 0.2% to 15.8% [4] - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The average weekly domestic asphalt price was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, and the range expanded. Prices rose in 2 regions, fell in 4 regions, and remained stable in 1 region [5] 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by various factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different advantages, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8] - **Futures**: Data on futures prices, trading volume, and open interest are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC [12] - **Spot**: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, along with the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [13] - **Spread**: The basis and month - to - month spreads in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta are presented [17][20] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [23] - **Downstream Shipment**: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease and a 2.5% year - on - year increase [28] 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (from countries like South Korea and Singapore). Key indicators include inventory, production profit, and maintenance plans [29] - **Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt output was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 12.1% year - on - year increase. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.1% [32] - **开工率 (Operating Rate)**: Data on the weekly operating rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [34][36][38] - **Inventory**: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the stock index will mainly show a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term upward trend. Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the market turnover increased. The market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of geopolitical risks, but short - term policy signals are lacking, and external risks may cause some disturbances [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias. The reference view is range - bound oscillation, and the core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, all stock indices rose unilaterally, and the total market turnover of the stock market was 1447.9 billion yuan, an increase of 301.1 billion yuan compared with the previous day [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Iran's acceptance of the cease - fire plan has eased geopolitical risks, and the market's risk preference has recovered. The main support for the market comes from the expected positive policies in the future due to weak credit and inflation data [4]. - **Negative Factors**: There is no incremental policy signal in the short - term, and it is necessary to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July. The implementation of the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel is still uncertain, and external risks may affect the market's risk preference [4].