Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals has shown significant gains, particularly in polysilicon futures, which have risen over 5% [1] Supply Side - Weekly polysilicon production has reached a high level, with expectations that if the "production limit and sales limit" policy is implemented in September, monthly output may remain stable compared to the previous month [1] - Current production trends indicate that southwestern production bases are operating at full capacity, while northwest enterprises show a mixed pattern of operations, but overall production is on an upward trend [1] Demand Side - Downstream silicon wafer prices are stable to slightly strong, with good sales of mainstream size products and companies planning price increases [1] - Prices for battery cells remain stable, but market demand appears relatively weak, with some specifications experiencing inventory accumulation, leading to uncertainty regarding the acceptance of price increases for silicon wafers [1] Market Outlook - There are expectations of industry consolidation as leading polysilicon company GCL-Poly Energy has indicated that details of an "industry restructuring plan" will be announced soon, which has sparked market speculation about capacity integration [1] - The market is facing a scenario of strong expectations versus weak realities, with short-term forecasts suggesting high-level fluctuations in polysilicon, silicon wafer, and battery cell spot prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US labor market is cooling, and Fed officials' remarks have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut, leading to a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a weakening short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Treasury bonds will likely remain at a high level and fluctuate, also suggesting cautious waiting and seeing. In the commodity sector, black metals will be weakly fluctuating, and it is recommended to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will be fluctuating strongly, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; energy and chemicals will be fluctuating, and it is recommended to wait and see; precious metals will be strongly fluctuating at a high level, and it is advisable to go long cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US August "small non - farm" was below expectations, the number of initial jobless claims increased, and private enterprise recruitment slowed in August, indicating a cooling labor market. Fed officials said that a rate cut over time is appropriate, strengthening the rate - cut expectation [2]. - Domestic: China's August official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 but was below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. There is an enhanced expectation of US easing and domestic easing, but the domestic market sentiment has cooled [2]. - Asset performance: The stock index will fluctuate in the short term; treasury bonds will be at a high - level and fluctuate; black metals will be weakly fluctuating; non - ferrous metals will be strongly fluctuating; energy and chemicals will be fluctuating; precious metals will be strongly fluctuating at a high level. All suggest cautious operations [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and communications, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The fundamentals and policies are similar to the macro - finance situation. The short - term upward macro - drive is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously in the short term [3]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot market was stable on Thursday, and the futures price continued to be weak. In the traditional peak demand season, the actual demand was still weak, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreasing by nearly 300,000 tons and the inventory increasing by nearly 320,000 tons. Due to phased production restrictions, the steel output decreased by 236,800 tons this week, and the iron - water output is expected to decline slightly. The first round of coke price increase failed, and a price cut started. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore were strong on Thursday. Phased production restrictions in the northern region reduced ore demand and affected port desilting volume. However, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and they are likely to resume production next week. The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [4][5]. 3.3.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in Inner Mongolia was stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity expected in October. In Ningxia, the operation was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The silicon iron price has cost support, and the production reduction intention is not strong. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash - The main soda ash contract fluctuated on Thursday. The supply decreased this week, but there is still supply pressure in the new capacity launch cycle, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The demand was stable week - on - week, and the profit decreased. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. 3.3.5 Glass - The main glass contract fluctuated on Thursday. The supply increased slightly, the demand was stable, and the profit increased slightly. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy 3.4.1 Copper - US job openings in July dropped to the lowest level in 10 months, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. However, a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, which may boost copper prices briefly [7]. 3.4.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices were weak on Thursday, and the inventory continued to increase. Although it is the peak season, demand is poor. The mid - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. A Fed rate cut in September may support the futures price [7][8]. 3.4.3 Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [8]. 3.4.4 Tin - The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. The supply of tin ore will be more abundant in the future. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory decreased last week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract rose 1.05% on Thursday. The inventory is gradually being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [9]. 3.4.6 Industrial Silicon - The main industrial silicon contract rose 0.12% on Thursday. Polysilicon is fluctuating at a high level, and industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. 3.4.7 Polysilicon - The main polysilicon contract rose 0.55% on Thursday. There are expectations of capacity integration in the market. Polysilicon is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [10]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 US Soybeans - The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose 0.17% overnight. The USDA weekly export sales report was postponed. The market is waiting for the September 12 USDA report to see if it will revise the US soybean yield. The Midwest is experiencing drought, which has reduced the excellent - good rate [11]. 3.5.2 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic oilseeds have preventive procurement in the third quarter, with high import volumes and increasing operating rates, resulting in a large phased inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The price of US soybeans is likely to be under pressure after September 12 if the yield remains unchanged. Brazilian export quotes are rising. The future trend of rapeseed meal depends on Sino - Canadian trade policies [12]. 3.5.3 Oils - CBOT soybean oil futures rose overnight, and BMD palm oil futures also increased slightly. September palm oil exports are expected to be strong, but the future market depends on production data. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August is expected to increase to 2.2 million tons. Domestic palm oil imports have a deeper profit inversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.5.4 Corn - New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. In North China, corn prices are stable, with tight channel inventories. The port inventory is low, and the futures market has rebounded, which is positive for the market [13]. 3.5.5 Pigs - The spot price of pigs has rebounded and is weakly stable. In September, both supply and demand of pigs will increase. The cost of secondary fattening is at a low - profit level, and there is support from the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle. The pig price should not be overly pessimistic in September [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is generally weak. Although steel product prices show a slightly stronger oscillation, they are under overall pressure. With the end of the parade, steel mills in Tangshan have resumed production, and the export volume increased slightly last week but remains in a weak oscillation pattern. The demand for steel is weak in the peak season, and the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, prices may decline further. The raw material end is more stable than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron after the important nodes. The price of ferroalloys continues to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The market is gradually shifting from trading on expectations to trading on the real - world situation, and the prices will move closer to the fundamentals. For manganese silicon, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. For silicon iron, attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies [7][11][12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the supply pressure exceeding the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [15][16][18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.354%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 222,549 tons, a net increase of 896 tons. The main contract position was 1.736432 million lots, a net decrease of 18,381 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 24,459 tons, a net decrease of 301 tons. The main contract position was 1.283425 million lots, a net increase of 34,343 lots [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The rebar apparent demand remains weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure intensifies. The hot - rolled coil production reduction is significant, the apparent demand decreases significantly month - on - month, the overall demand is moderately weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The steel price is under obvious pressure due to high production and insufficient demand. The profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the disk shows weak characteristics [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.87% (+14.50), and the position increased by 41,053 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 821,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.04 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.16% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has increased recently. The daily average molten iron output decreased significantly, mainly in North China. The port inventory has increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory has decreased. The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron [7]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On September 4, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.03% at 5730 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.43% at 5496 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferroalloys continue to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The manganese silicon market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to downstream demand changes and relevant policies. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.29% (+25). The weighted contract position decreased by 3039 lots to 481,904 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.07% (+35). The weighted contract position decreased by 3866 lots to 316,993 lots [14][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with supply pressure exceeding demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and strong influence from news [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, also unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, a net increase of 484,000 weight cases (+0.77%) month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1190 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a net increase of 2800 tons (+0.15%) [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is good, but the prices of finished steel products are oscillating. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material side is more stable than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [3] - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term. The impact of production restrictions on Tangshan steel mills on the weekly molten iron output is expected to be significant, and attention should be paid to the recovery of molten iron production after the end of the restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be weak. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see. The market is gradually shifting from trading based on expectations to trading based on fundamentals, and the prices of the black sector may continue to be under pressure in the future. [10][11] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with the range between 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon is expected to be highly volatile, and it may continue to rise if there is continuous positive news. [15][16] - The price of glass is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it will fluctuate with the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but its upside space is limited. [18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Situation**: The supply of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 771.50 yuan/ton, up 0.72% (+5.50), with a position change of - 948 hands to 45.30 million hands. The weighted position was 75.97 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.56%. [5] - **Market Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased, the daily average molten iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased. [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On September 2, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.14% at 5,744 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.07% at 5,528 yuan/ton. [8] - **Market Situation**: The price of manganese silicon is expected to remain weak before mid - October, and the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see. [10][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8,470 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-25). The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,875 yuan/ton, down 0.78% (-410). [14][15] - **Market Situation**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be highly volatile. [15][16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1,130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. The spot price of soda ash was 1,165 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. [18][19] - **Market Situation**: The price of glass is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and its price center may gradually rise in the long term. [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index is under pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence, while global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. With policies to expand service consumption and the extension of the tariff truce between China and the US, short - term domestic risk appetite has risen. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally [2]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends. For example, stock indices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, treasury bonds to fluctuate at high levels, and different commodity sectors have their own characteristics such as black metals being weak, non - ferrous metals being slightly stronger, energy and chemicals fluctuating, and precious metals being strong at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakening US dollar index and rising global risk appetite are due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was still below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption are to be introduced, and the extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and increase domestic easing expectations. Short - term macro upward drivers are strengthening marginally [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Driven by sectors like precious metals, metals, and biomedicine, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the improvement in manufacturing PMI and policy support, short - term domestic risk appetite has increased. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and short - term operation is to be cautiously bullish [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, and market trading volume was low. Although the PMI in August increased by 0.1 percentage points, it was still below the boom - bust line. Real - world demand is weakening, steel inventories are increasing, and the probability of steel mills resuming production next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. Iron water production is expected to further decline this week, and steel mills' procurement is cautious. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have increased this week, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia has little change, and there are new production capacity plans in October. The production of silicon iron has cost support, and the reduction in production is expected to be limited. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and profits are declining. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply has slightly increased, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits have slightly increased. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a new high. However, domestic copper demand is expected to weaken marginally, and although the Fed's rate cut in September may briefly boost copper prices, the strong copper price is hard to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum closing price fell and then rebounded slightly. Aluminum inventory has increased, and LME aluminum inventory is at a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside space for aluminum prices is limited, and in the short term, it will maintain a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is expected to be more abundant. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside space [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. Lithium carbonate is slowly destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. Rumors of industry restructuring have raised market expectations, but production in August was close to 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical risks. India has refuted the US pressure to stop importing oil from Russia, and Ukraine has attacked more Russian refineries. OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss supply policies, and the market expects the organization to suspend production increases. The spot price has a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to Indian tariffs and OPEC+ production decisions [13]. - **Asphalt**: The slight increase in oil prices has driven up asphalt costs. Asphalt itself is still weak, with a slightly declining basis. Inventory de - stocking is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term, with attention to changes in oil costs [14]. - **PX**: The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the PX market, but due to low PTA开工, the PX price is still weak. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has slightly decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [14]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工 has been at a low level due to plant problems, but the high basis has weakened, and processing fees have recovered. Demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with attention to oil prices and downstream demand [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas plant problems, imports are expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased significantly. The load of synthetic gas plants is high, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, with attention to downstream开工 recovery and oil costs [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price has slightly decreased due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and short - fiber开工 has rebounded slightly. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted at high levels in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO plants provide some support, but the oversupply pattern remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The device开工 has increased, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Demand is weak, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: Current maintenance has relieved supply pressure, and downstream demand is slowly increasing, with inventory decreasing. As maintenance ends, supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand growth [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT market was closed overnight. Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectations for new - crop US soybeans in August, and export sales data have improved, the net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased. However, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not overly optimistic, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, with more imported soybeans being released, the risk preference for protein meal may decrease. There is still a large pressure for short - term inventory accumulation, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in a peak production season, and exports are limited. It is expected that Indonesia will repair its low inventory, while Malaysia will face inventory accumulation pressure. The overall boost to oils and fats is limited. Domestic palm oil may be under pressure, while soybean and rapeseed oils have sufficient supply and demand and may see a repair of the low - valued market [17][18]. - **Corn**: In September, attention should be paid to the new - crop corn listing. There is no concentrated arrival pressure this year, and port and downstream inventories are low. The expected opening price of new - crop corn in the main production areas may be slightly higher than last year, and the main C2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [18]. - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. The pressure of large - weight pig sales has been released, and there is a seasonal replenishment for secondary fattening. With the traditional holiday stocking period, the pig price should not be overly pessimistic [19].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with polysilicon futures experiencing a downward trend, indicating potential challenges in the polysilicon sector [1] Supply Side - Some polysilicon companies that previously reduced production due to losses or equipment maintenance are resuming operations as market sentiment improves and policies promoting "anti-involution" are implemented [1] - Specific companies in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are gradually implementing their resumption plans [1] Demand Side - Export demand is gradually being released within the month, but there may be a significant vacuum period for downstream orders due to the previous wave of installation rush [1] - Future pricing for silicon materials is expected to face downward pressure [1] Market Outlook - The silicon wafer segment has completed price alignment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak [1] - Despite the weak fundamentals, the integration of production capacity provides strong support, and long-term participation in long positions is still encouraged within the price range of 51,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton [1]

近期多省工业硅行业协会针对反内卷提出联合倡议，短期相关消息或成为引导工业硅盘面重要驱动。多 晶硅盘面再度出现升水后吸引仓单增量，市场交易有关产能收储等一系列消息，短期多晶硅上顶下底的 区间格局较为明朗。关注工业硅复产进度、协会倡议影响以及多晶硅政策推进情况。 东海期货：市场情绪降温，多晶硅短期预计高位震荡 8月12日盘中，多晶硅期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至53400.0元。截止发稿，多晶硅主力 合约报52980.0元，涨幅2.98%。 多晶硅期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期多晶硅上顶下底的区间格局较为明朗 东海期货 市场情绪降温，多晶硅短期预计高位震荡 五矿期货 多晶硅多空谨慎参与，注意风险控制 光大期货：短期多晶硅上顶下底的区间格局较为明朗 光伏是反内卷的重点行业，预期仍存，且下方现货价格提供支撑。下游硅片和电池片顺利跟涨，但组件 暂时未能调价。仓单有所增加，市场情绪降温，短期预计高位震荡。 五矿期货：多晶硅多空谨慎参与，注意风险控制 基本面而言，8月多晶硅预期增产，下游硅片排产有所增加，但幅度相对上游硅料有限，因此硅料在8月 大概率累库， ...

同花顺数据显示，在已发布年报的上市公司中，有64家公司去年净利润超过100亿元；而在已发布一季 报的公司中，有28家公司今年一季度净利润超过10亿元。这些实现较高利润金额的上市公司，可以大致 分为两类：一是在原有基础上业绩稳步增长的上市公司；二是受益行业高景气度而业绩大幅增长的上市 公司。 有公司在今年一季度的净利润甚至超过了去年全年。雅化集团财报显示，2021年公司实现营业收入 52.41亿元，同比上升61.26%，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润9.37亿元，同比增长189.22%。而2022 年一季度，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约10.2亿元，同比增长1210.02%。 综合来看，能源、钢铁等行业的高景气度，在今年一季度得到延续，使得相关企业业绩水涨船高。 随着年报和一季报密集披露，越来越多的财务数据为投资者勾勒出资本市场发展的底色。同花顺数 据显示，截至4月25日，沪深两市共有2802家公司发布2021年年报，738家公司发布2022年一季报。 综合来看，一些高景气度行业利好有所延续，而暂时遇到困难的行业也在磨底过程中传递积极信息。此 外，多家企业以回购、增持、分红等方式，向投资者表达对公司长期发展 ...

8月11日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，多晶硅期货主力合约开盘报50600.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，多晶硅主力最高触及51360.0元，下方探低49800元，涨幅达2.39%附近。 目前来看，多晶硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于多晶硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面：中国光伏行业协会：征集《价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》意 见。多晶硅方面，从供应端来看，此前因亏损或设备检修而减产停产的多晶硅企业，随着近期市场情绪 好转以及政策端"反内卷"措施推进，部分企业复产积极性提升。云南、新疆和青海等地的个别企业复产 计划逐步落实。需求端来看，下游电池企业对硅片涨价的接受程度存在差异，部分中小电池企业因成本 压力，采购意愿并不强烈，限制了硅片环节需求的进一步增长。且硅片行业整体开工率小幅降低，对多 晶硅的需求支撑力度减弱。部分主流规格组件价格下调，反映出终端市场对高价组件接受度不高。在这 种情况下，组件企业对上游多晶硅的采购更加谨慎，以控制成本，导致多晶硅需求增长面临瓶颈。综上 供给增加，需求减弱，预计本周多晶硅行情将面临继续调整。 ...