Summary of Industrial Silicon Price Trends Conference Industry Overview - The industrial silicon demand is primarily driven by polysilicon, with production capacity increasing from 1.08 million tons in 2021 to an expected 3 million tons by the end of 2024, and projected to reach 3.3 million tons by 2025 [1][3] - The recent rebound in industrial silicon prices is attributed to supply reductions (notably from Hoshine Silicon Industry), increased demand (growth in organic silicon and polysilicon), inventory structure changes, and market sentiment [1][4] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply and demand for industrial silicon show a marginal improvement, with supply tightening due to Hoshine's production cuts, despite some increases in Yunnan and Sichuan regions [5][6] - From June to July, significant destocking occurred, reducing total inventory from 350,000 tons to 250,000 tons, with total industry inventory around 800,000 tons [1][6] - The main demand sources for industrial silicon are polysilicon (43%), organic silicon (25.97%), and aluminum alloys (15%), with exports accounting for about 15% [1][8] Market Sentiment and Price Influences - Market sentiment significantly impacts industrial silicon prices, with expectations of anti-competitive policies leading polysilicon companies to agree on selling at no less than cost, driving prices up [1][4] - Coal costs are a critical factor influencing industrial silicon prices, showing a correlation with coking coal price trends [1][7] Industry Changes and Future Outlook - The polysilicon industry is undergoing a capacity consolidation phase, expected to complete by the end of September, which may lead to price increases and production decreases [11][12] - By the end of 2025, China's actual industrial silicon capacity is projected to be around 8 million tons, with nominal capacity at 7 million tons, indicating a potential severe oversupply [13][15] - Historical trends show that industrial silicon prices typically bottom out with capacity reductions, but currently, no such reductions are observed despite low prices [14][15] Policy and Regulatory Impact - There are ongoing discussions about eliminating small furnaces (below 12,500 kVA), which could significantly impact the industry if implemented, potentially reducing total capacity by up to 5% [18][19] - The effectiveness of market-driven measures to eliminate outdated capacity is questioned, particularly in regions where small furnaces produce specialized products [27][31] Profitability and Cost Structure - The cost structure varies significantly across regions, with cash costs in Xinjiang around 6,800 RMB/ton, while costs in Yunnan and Sichuan can reach up to 10,000 RMB/ton [24][25] - The profitability outlook for the third quarter is positive, with expectations of turning losses into profits if prices exceed 10,000 RMB/ton [29] Key Focus Areas - Key areas to monitor in the coming months include Hoshine's production resumption and the potential impact of small furnace elimination policies on supply-demand balance and pricing [20] Additional Insights - The organic silicon market is rapidly developing, with significant applications in photovoltaics and electric vehicles, and is expected to maintain stable growth [10] - The integration of polysilicon production is anticipated to stabilize prices and improve overall market conditions [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the destocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The overall support from the downstream demand side is expected to strengthen, but the demand may be suppressed if the integration of the photovoltaic industry makes substantial progress. The inventory is expected to further decline with the improvement of demand. Overall, the price of industrial silicon will show a wide - range oscillation in the second half of the year. The strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out long positions in industrial silicon on dips [4]. - The positive factors include the positive signal from the "anti - involution" policy, limited further downward space for costs in the short term, and better - than - expected demand. The negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and the potential weakening of demand due to the integration of downstream polysilicon enterprises [7][8]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where the fundamental logic and the "anti - involution" logic alternate. From the fundamental perspective, the expectation of lower electricity prices and increased profits may prompt enterprises to increase production capacity, while the demand growth is limited, and the high - inventory pressure persists. From the "anti - involution" logic, effective integration agreements or coordinated production - reduction measures may reverse the current situation. The strategy is to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 and PS2512. - The positive factors are the potential industry - wide capacity integration and the external demand stimulus from the US "big and beautiful" bill. The negative factor is the potential inventory accumulation if the integration plan fails to materialize [10]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 9525 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.35% and a weekly increase of 9.67%. The trading volume is 1681997 lots, with a daily increase of 36.26% and a weekly increase of 51.32%. The open interest is 334776 lots, with a daily decrease of 12.12% and a weekly decrease of 11.87% [13]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 160 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.34% and a weekly increase of 128.57%. The SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of - 17.19% and a weekly increase of - 18.46% [15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in various regions have increased, with daily increases ranging from 3.02% to 4.42%. The basis of East China 553 and 421 has increased significantly, with the daily increase of the basis of East China 553 reaching 955.56% and that of East China 421 reaching 145.76%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 remains unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50106 lots, with a decrease of 5.19%. The inventory in some delivery warehouses has changed, such as a decrease of 13.73% in the Tianjin delivery warehouse and an increase of 1.45% in the Sichuan delivery warehouse [24][25]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 50080 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.99% and a weekly increase of 16.61%. The trading volume is 1246241 lots, with a daily increase of 64.52% and a weekly increase of 177.03%. The open interest is 165641 lots, with a daily decrease of 13.81% and a weekly increase of 130.75% [28]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 55.77% and a weekly decrease of 51.06%. The PS08 - 11 spread is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 39.31% and a weekly decrease of 61.74%. The PS09 - 11 spread is 325 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30.11% and a weekly decrease of 64.48%. The PS11 - 12 spread is - 1950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of - 12.95% and a weekly increase of - 8.02% [30]. Spot Data - The prices of most polysilicon products remain stable, with only the N - type polysilicon price index increasing by 1.15% and the particle silicon increasing by 2.33%. The prices of silicon wafers and solar cells remain unchanged [35][37]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 6030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.55% and a weekly decrease of 1294.06%. The warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand support is expected to strengthen, but inventory remains at a historical high. Overall, the price will show a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of placing long orders for industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expected reduction in electricity prices and increased profits may boost production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory pressure persists. If effective industry integration or coordinated production reduction measures are implemented, it may reverse the current situation. It is recommended to focus on the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 - PS2511 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon **Futures Data** - The industrial silicon futures main contract shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.5%, a daily decline of 0.19%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 96.3%. The main contract's closing price was 8785 yuan/ton, with a 1.04% increase; trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, down 3.87%; and open interest was 396,653 lots, down 1.55% [2][12]. - The SI09 - 11 spread was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SI11 - 12 spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [14]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions have increased, such as the East China 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, up 1.67%, and the East China 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The East China 553 basis was 365 yuan/ton, up 19.67%, and the East China 421 basis was 715 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The East China 421 - 553 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [16]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 50,258 lots, up 29.69%. Warehouse receipts in various delivery warehouses showed different changes, such as a 6.59% increase in the Tianjin delivery warehouse to 10.1 million tons [22][23]. Polysilicon **Futures Data** - The polysilicon futures main contract also shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.05%, a daily decline of 0.94%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 82.57%. The main contract's closing price was 42,470 yuan/ton, with a 1.69% increase; trading volume was 565,746 lots, up 20.29%; and open interest was 69,821 lots, down 10.86% [2][25]. - The PS08 - 09 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 9.38%; the PS08 - 11 spread was 1530 yuan/ton, down 5.56%; the PS09 - 11 spread was 1180 yuan/ton, down 9.23%; the PS11 - 12 spread was - 2270 yuan/ton, down 5.34% [27]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of polysilicon showed little change. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index remained at 43.45 yuan/kg, and the particle silicon price decreased by 1.15% to 43 yuan/kg [32]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The polysilicon main contract basis was 980 yuan/ton, down 41.84%; the PS2509 contract basis was 1330 yuan/ton, down 33.7%; the PS2511 contract basis was 2510 yuan/ton, down 24.05%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remained unchanged [39][41].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Polysilicon Industry Industry Overview - The polysilicon price has recently increased by over 10%, primarily due to cost audits in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, but actual transaction volumes remain limited as downstream wafer manufacturers are cautious [1][2] - The average transaction price is around 40 yuan per kilogram, while many polysilicon manufacturers are still operating at a loss [1][4] - The market is expected to see a shift in competitive dynamics by 2025, with major manufacturers adjusting strategies to avoid aggressive competition [3][21] Key Points and Arguments Price Dynamics - Current pricing levels for major polysilicon manufacturers include Tongwei and Daqo at approximately 40 yuan per kilogram, while GCL's granular silicon is priced between 36 to 38 yuan [2] - Despite high market quotes, actual transaction prices are lower, with some quotes exceeding 45 yuan per kilogram [3] - The increase in polysilicon prices has led to a corresponding rise in wafer prices by 11% to 12% [3] Cost Audit Impact - Cost audits may lead manufacturers to price above their cost lines, potentially driving some smaller firms out of the market [5][10] - Large manufacturers like Daqo, New Energy, and Tongwei are better positioned to handle this pricing strategy due to their lower production costs [5][22] Technological Advancements - GCL has made significant breakthroughs in sulfur bed technology, reducing energy consumption and increasing the purity of granular silicon, which poses a competitive threat to traditional rod silicon [6][14] Challenges for Smaller Manufacturers - Second and third-tier manufacturers face significant challenges, with production costs significantly higher than industry benchmarks, leading to potential shutdown risks [7][10] - These manufacturers often resort to low pricing strategies to secure orders, which accelerates cash flow issues [8] Inventory Levels - Polysilicon manufacturers maintain inventories around 400,000 tons, with an increasing trend, while wafer manufacturers have lower inventories that can support production for 15 to 30 days [17][19] - High inventory levels suggest a lower risk of price declines, with polysilicon and wafer segments likely to see price increases first [19][20] Future Market Trends - The market may experience a consolidation of production capacity, especially if cost audits enforce stricter pricing policies [12][13] - The transition from rod silicon to granular silicon is expected to continue, with the price gap narrowing significantly [14] Regulatory Environment - The lack of clear regulations regarding cost audits and pricing strategies poses challenges for the industry, with potential implications for market stability [11][32] - The enforcement of a "no lower than cost" sales policy may lead to significant market changes, particularly affecting smaller manufacturers [12][31] Export Market Challenges - The export market faces challenges due to strict EU regulations on carbon footprints and issues related to products from Xinjiang, impacting competitiveness [30] Other Important Insights - The cancellation of export tax rebates is not expected to significantly impact industry prices, as Chinese components are already sold at low prices [26] - The futures market's stability may encourage manufacturers to engage in hedging activities, particularly among leading firms [27] - The operational feasibility of maintaining production at low-cost manufacturers is contingent on market demand, which is projected to be between 1 million to 1.08 million tons [28]

Group 1: Photovoltaic Silicon Material Industry - The photovoltaic silicon material industry is expected to accelerate capacity consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the solar industry [1] - By 2027, the industry is projected to enter a stable development phase, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment due to differences in capacity costs and financial strength among companies [1] - Key companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing continuous advancements, with equipment from Winbond Technology successfully delivered to major domestic clients [2] - Material production is ramping up, with significant capacity in oxide electrolytes and expectations for sulfide electrolytes to achieve ton-level shipments by 2025 [2] - Companies of interest in this sector include Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Development - The central government is promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power, with a focus on enhancing the marine economy and encouraging private investment [3] - Goldwind Technology has secured over 7.7GW of international orders for 2024, with significant revenue growth reported for its international subsidiary [3] - Key players in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and Dajin Heavy Industry [3] Group 4: Data Center Investment - Global data center investments are accelerating, with Amazon planning to invest AUD 20 billion (approximately USD 13.1 billion) in Australia and SK Telecom collaborating with Amazon Web Services for a significant data center project in South Korea [4] - The deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI systems is underway, indicating a growing demand for AI computing resources [4] - Companies to monitor in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, and others [4] Group 5: Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, with Goldwind Technology rated "Outperform" and projected to have an EPS of 1.28 in 2025 [5] - Jinpan Technology and other companies also received "Outperform" ratings, indicating positive market sentiment [5] Group 6: Industry Performance Overview - The electric power equipment sector outperformed the market in June, with a 6.68% increase compared to a 2.5% rise in the CSI 300 index [13] - The sector's PE ratio at the end of June was 30.3, reflecting a slight recovery in valuations [13] - The report highlights that the electric power equipment industry has shown strong performance across various sub-sectors, including lithium battery materials and wind power [23]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a strong signal for rectifying low-price disorderly competition, with silicon material prices beginning to rise [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - The recent data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Industry Branch indicates that the price of multi-crystalline silicon has continued to rise, with the N-type multi-crystalline silicon price range at 34,000-38,000 yuan/ton and an average price of 37,100 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.92% [1] - The N-type granular silicon price range is reported at 34,000-37,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 35,600 yuan/ton, also showing a week-on-week increase of 6.27% [1] - Although silicon wafer prices remained stable, several silicon wafer manufacturers raised their prices by 8% to 11.7% on July 9, with N-type G10L single crystal silicon wafer price increasing to 1 yuan/piece (up 11.1%), N-type G12R to 1.15 yuan/piece (up 11.7%), and N-type G12 to 1.35 yuan/piece (up 8.0%) [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The silicon industry association noted that the price increase is primarily due to multi-crystalline silicon companies operating at a loss for over a year, leading to prices being significantly below comprehensive costs [2] - Despite the price increases in silicon materials, the downstream market has not stabilized, causing silicon wafer companies to remain cautious in the short term [2] - Industry experts suggest that the multi-crystalline silicon segment could lead the way out of the current "involution" situation, with potential price rebounds benefiting the entire supply chain [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Some photovoltaic companies have begun to turn losses into profits in the second quarter of this year, indicating positive signals in the industry [4] - Recent announcements from A-share companies show that Foster expects a net profit of 473 million yuan for the first half of the year, a decrease of 49.05% year-on-year, while TCL Zhonghuan anticipates a loss of 4 to 4.5 billion yuan [5] - Aiko Solar is expected to narrow its losses, projecting a net profit of 20 million to 130 million yuan for the second quarter, marking its first potential quarterly profit since Q4 2023 [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The industry is focusing on building a healthy business ecosystem, with companies expressing reluctance to accept orders that do not yield profits [6] - The ongoing discussions about "anti-involution" reflect a broader concern about establishing sustainable business practices within the N-type BC industry [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and will enter the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in the southwest during the wet season, while the downstream demand is expected to strengthen. The price will show a wide - range oscillation. Strategies include focusing on SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread opportunities and the chance of going long on near - month industrial silicon and shorting far - month polysilicon [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, lower production costs may lead to increased production capacity, while demand growth is limited, and inventory pressure remains high. If industry integration is effective, it may drive up prices. The recommended strategy is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8470 yuan/ton, up 4.05% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,468,586 lots, up 27.32%; the open interest is 381,237 lots, down 4.46% [11]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 27.27% from the previous period; the SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, up 14.52% [15]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of 553 silicon in different regions range from 8200 - 8750 yuan/ton, with some showing price increases. The price of 421 silicon in different regions ranges from 8950 - 9900 yuan/ton, mostly stable. The spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total warehouse receipts are 50,544 lots, down 248 lots from the previous period. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows little change, except for Sichuan and Jiangsu which have slight increases [23][24]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 41,345 yuan/ton, up 5.28% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,014,567 lots, up 27.70%; the open interest is 98,601 lots, up 1.45% [26]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 300 yuan/ton, down 25.00% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 800 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the PS09 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton, up 21.95%; the PS11 - 12 spread is - 2325 yuan/ton, up 8.90% [28]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of different types of polysilicon show some changes, with N - type polysilicon price index rising 12.00% to 44.8 yuan/kg. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also have certain fluctuations [33][35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data** - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 3455 yuan/ton, up 373.29% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40][42]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, strategies include shorting futures on the main contract, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying long - term futures contracts according to production plans, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the polysilicon industry is moving towards a new development stage, focusing on capacity integration and differentiation [1][3] - The need for capacity control in the polysilicon sector is highlighted, with industry leaders discussing the importance of capacity consolidation to improve market conditions [1][3] - GCL-Poly Energy has proposed a clear plan for capacity acquisition, aiming to maintain silicon material prices at reasonable levels and ensure profitability across the entire supply chain [1][2] Group 2 - The green development route is a long-term goal for the photovoltaic industry, with Tongwei joining major global renewable energy organizations to demonstrate its commitment to global green governance [2] - GCL-Poly has introduced a green pricing initiative, advocating for better policies for products with lower carbon footprints, which aligns with international standards [2] - The carbon footprint of GCL-Poly's granular silicon products has been certified at 14.441 kg CO₂e/kg, showcasing its leadership in carbon reduction efforts [2] Group 3 - By the end of 2024, China's polysilicon capacity is projected to reach 2.8683 million tons, with an average annual investment price of approximately 50,000 yuan per ton [3] - The overall average price of polysilicon is currently around 34,000 yuan per ton, with about 500,000 tons of capacity either delayed or still in progress, leading to significant losses for companies [3] - The industry is witnessing a shift from chaotic competition to deep cooperation, aiming for resource optimization and sustainable long-term development [1][3]

Industry Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of liquid ammonia, with an estimated production of approximately 62.1 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.39% [1][13] - The stable agricultural demand is a key factor supporting the growth of liquid ammonia production, as it is a core raw material for nitrogen fertilizer [1][13] - China's total grain production is expected to reach a new high of over 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, which directly drives the demand for nitrogen fertilizers and subsequently boosts liquid ammonia production [1][13] - The recovery of industrial demand, particularly in the chemical and refrigeration sectors, is also contributing to the growth of liquid ammonia production [1][13] Industry Development History - The development of China's liquid ammonia industry has gone through four stages, starting from the establishment of the first synthetic ammonia production workshop in 1935 [4][5] - The industry expanded significantly from the 1950s to the 1970s, with applications extending to lawn maintenance and greenhouse planting [5] - From the 1970s to 2015, the industry faced strict environmental regulations, leading to technological innovations and the development of more environmentally friendly production methods [5][6] - Since 2015, the industry has been undergoing a transformation towards green ammonia production, utilizing renewable energy sources [6][7] Industry Chain - The upstream of the liquid ammonia industry includes raw materials such as coal, natural gas, and production equipment [9] - The midstream involves the manufacturing process of liquid ammonia, while the downstream applications span agriculture, industry, and new energy sectors [9] Market Size - The stable growth in grain production and the recovery of industrial demand are expected to drive liquid ammonia production in 2024 [1][13] - The price of liquid ammonia in April 2025 was reported at 2,650 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.52% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.96% [15] Key Enterprises - The competitive landscape of the liquid ammonia industry is characterized by a concentration of leading companies such as Yuntianhua, Hubei Yihua, and Hualu Hengsheng, which dominate the market [17] - These leading enterprises are extending their operations upstream to raw material production and downstream to fertilizer and chemical markets, forming a closed loop from raw materials to production and application [17] Industry Development Trends - The industry is accelerating its transition to green and low-carbon production methods, with green ammonia technology becoming a key breakthrough [23][25] - There is a trend towards deeper capacity integration, with leading companies expanding their market share through mergers and acquisitions [24][25] - The demand for liquid ammonia in the new energy sector is rising, with its potential applications in energy storage and shipping becoming increasingly significant [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals remain weak, but the trading volume has reached a record high. Be vigilant of market fluctuations caused by short - covering. There is a supply surplus, and the demand is weak. Consider shorting industrial silicon and longing polysilicon for arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are still weak. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is strengthening. Be cautious of the spread of the delivery logic of the PS06 contract to the PS07 contract. Look for positive arbitrage opportunities between the 07 - 08/07 - 09 contracts of polysilicon. The market is in a state of alternating fundamentals and delivery logic, with wide - range fluctuations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - Industrial silicon: The price of the main contract faces strong resistance at 8000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 27.3%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 83.7% [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of the main contract fluctuates widely between 34000 - 38000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 28.94%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 85% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, sell industrial silicon/polysilicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 3 [2]. - When product inventory is high and there is a risk of impairment, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 80% and a strategy level of 4, and buy out - of - the - money put options with a strategy level of 3 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - To prevent future raw material price increases, buy far - month industrial silicon/polysilicon contracts according to the production plan, with a strategy level of 1. Sell put options with a strategy level of 2, and buy out - of - the - money call options with a strategy level of 1 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: In the process of eliminating backward production capacity, with the approaching of the wet season, enterprises in the southwest are increasing furnace operation, and there is a risk of further inventory accumulation [3]. - Demand: Overall weak, downstream enterprises are bargaining for purchases, and there are still expectations of production cuts in the future [3]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Production is stable, but high - inventory pressure persists. If there are plans for capacity integration and elimination, it may improve the industry situation [3]. - Demand: The support from downstream demand has significantly weakened after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush [3]. - Futures: As the delivery month approaches, the contradiction between the number of positions and warehouse receipts will become prominent, and the price fluctuations will increase [3]. 3.4利多解读 3.4.1 Industrial Silicon - Macro - policy support may stimulate power demand growth, and the long - term industry is in an upward cycle. The cost has limited room for further decline, providing strong cost support [4]. 3.4.2 Polysilicon - There may be plans for capacity integration and elimination in the industry, which could improve the industry situation. Enterprises are not very willing to deliver, and the market follows the delivery logic [4]. 3.5利空解读 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - With the approaching of the wet season, production capacity is being released, and downstream enterprises are rumored to jointly cut production, further weakening demand [7]. 3.5.2 Polysilicon - The capacity integration and elimination plan fails, and the inventory continues to accumulate with weak demand [16]. 3.6 Market Data 3.6.1 Futures Market - Industrial silicon: The latest price of the main contract is 7340 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 6.85%. The trading volume is 624841 lots, a weekly increase of 199.83%. The position is 226069 lots, a weekly increase of 23.07% [8]. - Polysilicon: The latest price of the main contract is 35100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.72%. The trading volume is 153272 lots, a weekly increase of 21.39%. The position is 79868 lots, a weekly increase of 3.33% [8]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - Industrial silicon: The prices of different grades in various regions are provided, such as 8500 yuan/ton for East China 553 and 9200 yuan/ton for East China 421. The basis and price difference data are also given [15][17].