Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The report predicts that the market for finished products will move in a volatile manner [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Production and Supply - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2858 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.60 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 million tons [3] - Six cities in Hebei launched a Level II emergency response for heavy air pollution on February 8 [3] Winter Storage Policy and Market Sentiment - Henan's winter storage policies were gradually introduced, with the mainstream locked - in price at 3,040 yuan/ton, and the post - settlement model extended to the end of March. Some steel mills chose self - storage or on - demand delivery [3] - Merchants' willingness for winter storage was low, generally stocking 1,000 - 2,000 tons. The market was cautious and waiting due to weak expectations of post - holiday demand recovery [3] Excavator Sales - In January 2026, 18,708 excavators of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%. Among them, domestic sales were 8,723 units, a year - on - year increase of 61.4%; exports were 9,985 units, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [3] Steel Price - At the end of last week, the ex - factory price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2,910 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation - Last week, finished products fluctuated lower, and the steel market continued to show a situation of weak supply and demand. As the Spring Festival approached, the spot market gradually entered the holiday rhythm. There might still be capital outflows before the holiday, leading to a decline in market trading. The macro - environment was calm and had little impact on prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak before the Spring Festival, and the post - festival trend depends on the game between upstream and downstream**: In the coking coal segment, production is adjusted due to the Spring Festival and safety production constraints, and it is expected to decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival. In the coke segment, poor profits suppress production enthusiasm, and supply is in a contraction state. In the steel mill segment, production will remain at a low level during the Spring Festival, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but the actual recovery height depends on the game between terminal demand release intensity and steel mill profit levels. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise. The supply of coking coal is expected to be loose, while the supply of coke will continue to contract. The demand depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit space. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that coking coal and coke will mainly fluctuate within a range, with coke in the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton and coking coal in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/ton [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Futures market**: In January, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated widely, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Coking coal futures first rose due to winter storage expectations, then fell due to high Mongolian coal customs clearance and sufficient domestic supply, and finally entered a shock phase. Coke futures basically followed the trend of coking coal [8]. - **Spot market**: Mongolian coal prices were closely linked to futures, while Shanxi - produced coking coal prices were relatively lagging. In January, the mainstream coal types in Shanxi generally rose by 80 - 150 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and then weakened in the late month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal, the supply pressure gradually accumulated, with increased domestic coal mine production and high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance. The downstream winter storage brought phased demand but with limited intensity. For coke, the supply - demand pattern was loose, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, but profits continued to shrink [8]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Production Declined Slightly - In January, coking coal production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year, mainly affected by the Spring Festival and weak downstream demand. Shanxi's production decreased by 4% month - on - month, while Inner Mongolia's increased by 2.1%. State - owned key coal mines accounted for 72% of the total output, and private small and medium - sized mines had a low start - up rate of 52%. In February, production is expected to decline seasonally and recover quickly after the festival [9][11]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal Import Had a Good Momentum - In 2025, China's coking coal imports were low in the first half and high in the second half, with a total import volume of 118.6256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.3% of the total imports. In January, Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly year - on - year, and the port inventory was high. After the Spring Festival, customs clearance is expected to remain at a high level [12]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In January, the coking coal market was in a state of inventory accumulation. The inventory was transferred from upstream to mid - and downstream. By the end of January, the upstream coal mine raw coal inventory increased by 660,000 tons month - on - month, the port inventory decreased by 130,000 tons, the coking plant inventory increased by 1.95 million tons, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased by 76,000 tons [17]. 3.2.4 Overall Contraction of Coke Supply - In January, coking enterprises' profits were poor, and the start - up rate increased limitedly. The national coking profit was - 50 - 60 yuan/ton, and the independent coking enterprise start - up rate was stable at around 72%. Coke production was at a relatively low level, and the supply continued to contract. Steel mill coke production remained stable, with a daily average output of 465,000 - 470,000 tons [19]. 3.2.5 Coke Import and Export - In 2025, China's coke exports showed a downward trend, with a total export volume of 794,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Exports were mainly to Indonesia, India, and Japan. In 2026, coke exports are expected to be generally stable. Domestic coke self - sufficiency rate is high, and imports have little impact on the market [21][22]. 3.2.6 Coke Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, coke inventory increased, mainly driven by steel mill replenishment. By the end of January, the total domestic coke inventory was about 9.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons month - on - month. The coking plant inventory decreased by 60,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 200,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 360,000 tons [23]. 3.3 Demand Side: Contracted Before the Festival and Recovered After the Festival - Affected by the Spring Festival and pre - festival stockpiling, coke demand weakened before the festival. In January, overall consumption was stable, slightly better than the same period last year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills remained in the range of 80% - 85%, and the daily average pig iron output was about 2.28 million tons, a slight decrease of 5,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the start - up rate will remain low in early February and gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but it depends on the game between steel mill profit repair and raw material costs [28]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Coking coal**: Affected by the Spring Festival and safety production, production will decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival, and the supply will be generally stable [32]. - **Coke**: Coking enterprises' profits are poor, and the supply continues to contract. Steel mill self - produced coke remains stable [32]. - **Steel mills**: During the Spring Festival, production will remain at a low level. After the Lantern Festival, the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, but the actual recovery height depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit levels [32]. - **Macro - level**: The domestic economy is stable, with weak real estate investment and strong infrastructure and manufacturing investment. Overseas, there are geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, and the global economy has uncertainties. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise, and they are expected to fluctuate within a range [33].

2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注节后预期变化 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 钢材月报 ⚫ 供给端：1月钢材生产呈现回升态势，但受限于钢厂整 体盈利面偏弱及淡季需求走弱，进一步增产的动力不 足。进入2月，短流程企业因春节临近而逐步减产，后 续供应增长将主要依赖高炉产能释放。然而，考虑到当 前利润空间依然有限、库存压力尚未缓解，预计整体增 产空间较为有限。 ⚫ 需求端：春节临近，钢材消费边际转弱。其中螺纹钢表 观消费量降至176万吨，工地采购以刚需为主，投机需 求几近停滞；板材表现相对坚挺，热卷表观消费量微降 至310万吨。今年贸易商普遍冬储意愿偏低，对节后需 求复苏持谨慎态度，投机囤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：供需双弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开低走，日内下跌。国内矿山逐渐开启假期，部分大型煤矿库 存假期内继续发运，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用 率为 86.67%，环比减少 2.46%。原煤日均产量达到 192.53 万吨。假期临近，矿 山安全检查及停产增多，下游冬储备货收尾中，矿山焦煤库存去化，周度环比 减少 2.53 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 67.6 万吨，钢厂累库 9.84 万吨，冬储补库 依然在继续，距离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将继续下沉，但目前已 接近尾声阶段。下游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比增加 0.26%，周度日 均产量 228.58 万吨。据外媒援引印尼行业官员 2 月 3 日表示，由于印尼政府提 议大规模削减煤炭产量，部分印尼矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口，亚洲买家暂时难 以获得印尼煤炭供应。印尼市场消息对焦煤本身基本面影响消化后，市场回归 供需双弱基本面，涨幅回吐，但冬储及钢厂刚需托底，焦煤预计有企稳迹象。 【现货数据】 1 数据来源：钢联数据、冠通研究咨询部 【基本面跟踪】 500 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polysilicon market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with no quotations or transactions reported for mainstream products this week. The market sentiment has worsened, leading to a complete halt in new contract signings, with only a few companies engaging in minor exploratory inquiries [1] - The deepening market deadlock is attributed to high absolute prices of key materials like silver paste, which continue to exert cost pressure on battery production. This has limited the downstream acceptance of polysilicon prices. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the operational plans of downstream silicon wafer and battery manufacturers ahead of the Spring Festival has delayed short-term procurement needs [1] - In January, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 102,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The reduction mainly came from companies like Yongxiang Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Lihau Qingneng, while increases were noted from companies like Nanfang Glass and Tianrui. The production plan for February is set to further decrease to below 85,000 tons, aligning supply with demand [1] Group 2 - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance in the short term, with sluggish demand before the Spring Festival and supply contraction continuing to dominate the market outlook. Significant price fluctuations are unlikely [2] - After the Spring Festival, as some downstream companies gradually release their rigid procurement needs, order transactions are expected to slowly resume, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range based on the cost lines of enterprises [2]

Group 1 - The main contract price of casting aluminum alloy futures reached a high of 24,410 yuan/ton last Friday but has since experienced a significant decline due to panic in the precious metals market and expectations of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses commodity prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's waste aluminum market is expected to show an increase in volume and price stability, with domestic recycling systems growing and imports remaining strong to supplement raw material supply. The total waste aluminum recycling volume is projected to reach 8.5927 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2] - The waste aluminum import volume for 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.67%, with December imports showing a significant increase of 19.36% month-on-month and 22.82% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging high-quality recycled material imports and strong domestic demand [2] Group 3 - As of January 29, the waste aluminum market is characterized by a "price without market" situation, with prices rising significantly but actual transactions remaining weak due to supply and demand weaknesses. Supply has tightened due to tax policy adjustments and holiday closures, while demand is suppressed by environmental production limits and rapid price increases [3] Group 4 - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy market is entering a seasonal off-peak period, with significant internal structural differentiation. In December 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 640,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.16% [5] - The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry has continued to decline, reaching 58.9% as of January 29, with expectations of further decreases before the Spring Festival. Social inventory has been decreasing, while factory inventory has been accumulating due to weak demand [5] Group 5 - The outlook for casting aluminum alloy futures prices is expected to be characterized by weak fluctuations, constrained by strong cost support and weak fundamental demand. The solid cost support comes from tight supply of core raw materials and high aluminum prices, while weak demand limits upward price movement [6]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is under pressure due to a combination of external and internal negative factors, leading to a bearish outlook for lead prices in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight lead futures in London closed at $1970.5 per ton, down $24.5, or 1.23%, with a trading volume of 10,723 contracts and an open interest of 170,925 contracts [1]. - The current lead price is expected to continue a weak oscillation pattern, with overall performance leaning towards weakness and difficulty in achieving a significant rebound [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar and the hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve are suppressing the valuations of industrial metals, including lead, while causing funds to flow out of the non-ferrous metal sector [2]. - The industry is experiencing a "double weakness" in supply and demand; although supply is contracting due to refinery maintenance and production cuts, the demand side is weak, particularly in the lead-acid battery sector, which is facing high finished goods inventory and sluggish sales [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to face downward pressure, likely fluctuating around the cost line of recycled lead, with a need for two signals to confirm a substantial market turnaround: post-Spring Festival recovery in downstream production and a clear correction in macro policy expectations [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term to avoid blind bottom-fishing, while mid-term strategies should focus on monitoring the recovery pace and inventory replenishment in the downstream sector after the holiday [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：驱动有限，窄幅波动 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开高走，日内下跌。供应端，春节临近，国内矿山逐渐开启假 期，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 89.13%，环 比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。本期焦煤矿山库存转为累库， 周度环比减少 7.17 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万 吨，冬储补库进程环比上周加快，距离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将 继续下沉，下游铁水产量环比减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万吨。焦炭一 轮提涨落地，下游高价接受力度回暖，焦企利润回升，市场情绪起伏大，临近 春节假期，矿端预计将逐渐减量，而下游冬储虽仍在进行，但已进入收尾阶 段，供需双弱，焦煤窄幅波动整理，目前无政策支撑，整体驱动有限。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1024 元/吨，较上个交易日+4 元/吨。 1 数据来源：钢联数据、冠通研究咨询部 【基本面跟踪】 供应数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a downward trend due to a combination of external macroeconomic factors and internal supply-demand dynamics, leading to significant price declines in both futures and spot markets [1][2]. Supply Side - Seasonal reductions in lead production due to winter adjustments in northern mines and maintenance at smelting plants are being overshadowed by high inventory levels, which have reached a two-month high, exerting downward pressure on prices [2]. - The cost structure is showing divergence; while processing fees for imported lead concentrate remain low, increasing smelting costs are pushing some recycled lead producers into losses, prompting early production cuts [2]. Demand Side - The lead consumption is heavily reliant on the battery industry, which is currently underperforming due to declining demand for electric bicycles and weaker export orders for automotive batteries [2]. - High finished goods inventory levels at battery manufacturers have led to a significant drop in production and procurement willingness, with the anticipated pre-holiday stockpiling failing to materialize [2]. Spot Market and Short-term Outlook - The spot market is experiencing extremely low trading activity, with sellers lowering prices due to futures declines and financial pressures, while buyers show little purchasing interest, resulting in a "price without market" scenario [2]. - In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and persistent supply-demand imbalances, with limited potential for significant rebounds until clear signs of order recovery and inventory reduction in the battery sector emerge [2].