成文日期: 20251215 研究员：张孟威(期货从业咨询证号:F03127896、Z0020205) 报告周期:周报 建材期货周报： 基本面驱动行情 核心观点： 当周（2025.12.08-12.12）建材持续回落，玻璃进入阴跌状态. 短期宏观驱动或告一段落，接下来主导价格的重心或重回基本面。 图 3：螺纹总库存 图 4：浮法玻璃日熔量及开工率 图 5: 总库存 9000 Box Box Back Back Barcel -2024年度 -- -2021年度 122年度 期现市场 宏观方面,当周美联储议息落地,降息 25 个 BP 符合预期,接 下来降息节奏略显鸽派,国内重要会议也圆满结束,政策并未释放 太多增量信息，均在市场预期范围内。 钢厂利润有所改善,但进入周期性淡季,螺纹表需环比也有所 下降,产量仍维持下滑状态,相较表需,产量跌幅更大,库存呈现 持续去化态势,螺纹整体基本面回归供需双弱格局,在无重要事件 驱动的情况下,螺纹或维持震荡。玻璃当周一条产线点火但尚未出 玻璃、周产量基本持稳, 下周 1 条产线有冷修预期,需求端目前仍 以刚性为主,库存周环比稍有下滑,由资金主导的高波动行情或趋 于平缓,随着 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

本周四(12月11日)，菜籽粕现货价格有所走强，据监测，广西菜粕现货涨30收于2500元/吨。 (12月12日)今日全国菜籽粕价格一览表 期货市场上看，12月12日收盘，菜籽粕期货主力合约报2347.00元/吨，涨幅0.64%，最高触及2359.00元/ 吨，最低下探2326.00元/吨，日内成交量达293158手。 【市场资讯】 截至第49周，华南地区进口菜籽粕库存为23.4万吨，较上周减少0.90万吨。出库数为0.9万吨，入库0万 吨；华东进口菜籽粕库存19.36万吨，较上周减少1.90万吨；华北进口菜籽粕库存4.3万吨，较上周减少 0.17万吨。 12月11日，菜粕前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓43.85万手，空单持仓51.44万手，多空比 0.85。净持仓为-7.59万手，相较上日增加1.32万手。 分析观点： 瑞达期货（002961）研报：中加贸易谈判仍未能就油菜籽关税问题取得突破，加菜籽和菜粕进口仍受 限，且现阶段油厂仍处于停机状态，供应端趋紧。不过，第一船澳大利亚菜籽可能会于本月中旬压榨， 且温度下滑，水产养殖需求转弱，菜粕刚需下滑。同时，国内进口大豆拍卖消息落地，对国内粕类市场 有 ...

螺纹钢周度数据（20251212） 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 178.78 -10.53 206.08 -27.30 233.82 -55.04 高炉产能利用率（%） 85.92 -1.16 87.98 -2.06 88.53 -2.61 表观需求量 203.09 -13.89 227.94 -24.85 234.20 -31.11 钢联建材成交周均值 10.02 0.12 10.46 -0.44 11.61 -1.59 总库存 479.50 -24.31 531.48 -51.98 445.11 34.39 厂内库存 140.80 -1.88 146.73 -5.93 148.72 -7.92 社会库存 338.70 -22.43 384.75 -46.05 296.39 42.31 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 春 节 前 3 周 春 节 当 周 春 节 后 3 周 春 节 后 6 周 ...

供需双弱，关注贸易制裁下运费上涨风险 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 【策略】 1.单边：供需双弱，成本支撑，建议观望为主。激进投资者可少量布局多单。 2.套利：观望 3.期权：观望。 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面：现货辐射松山东760元/方、江苏780元/方连续两周持平，同比仍低5-9%；云杉山东1150元/方年内高位。本周到港45.6万 方环比+79%，13港总库存299万方环比+4.6%，日均出库5.7万方环比-12.7%，南强北弱、出库放缓，建筑资金到位率59.4%微降，现 货呈"高供给、累库存、弱需求"的稳态偏强格局。 【逻辑分析】 供应方面，到港量预计维持正常偏多水平， ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251209：承压回落 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 近期趋势 2025/12/9 指标 | | | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | | 9,300.00 | -0.53% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | | 8,675.00 | -1.48% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | | 625.00 | 80.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | | 54,545.00 | -1.74% | | 基差 元/吨 元/吨 | | | -3,545.00 | 965.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 | | | 9,300.00 9,300.00 | -0.53% -0.53% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | | 9,200.00 | -1.08% | | 元/吨 ...

Group 1: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal continues to show weakness, reaching a new low in the current phase, with domestic coal production slightly contracting week-on-week [1] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in mining activity, while import levels remain high, leading to sufficient supply [1] - Demand from coking enterprises is declining, with reduced purchasing enthusiasm and a drop in steel production, resulting in weakened real demand for coking coal [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - The photovoltaic market is experiencing an overall decline in demand, leading to increased sales pressure across various segments and early shutdowns for some companies [2] - The polysilicon inventory continues to rise, with a slight increase in warehouse receipts, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2] - Despite a reduction in production across the supply chain, the weak demand is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation [2] Group 3: Rebar Market - The rebar market is under pressure due to weak demand and reduced production from steel mills, with a slight decline in apparent consumption [3] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the overall supply-demand situation remains weak, with cost support for steel products lacking [3] - Recent declines in raw material prices have improved profitability for some steel mills, leading to expectations of increased rebar production in the future [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar weakened, with a daily decline of 1.30%. Supply has dropped to a low level, providing price support, but demand is also weakening. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. However, the valuation is relatively low, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened, with a daily decline of 1.02%. The supply pressure has limited relief, and demand continues to weaken. The fundamentals are weak, and the price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation, and it is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 1.14%. The position transfer was completed, and the volume and open interest contracted. The previous positive factors supported the price to return to a high level, but demand is weakening while supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market continue to weaken, and it is expected that the price will decline under pressure in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The Politburo meeting emphasized guiding next year's economic work with Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies, and promoting high - quality development [7]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%, and imports were 16.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2%. In November, the trade growth rate rebounded, with a total import and export value of 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1% [8]. - In November 2025, China exported 998.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%. From January to November, the cumulative steel export was 10,771.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, China imported 49.6 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative steel import was 554.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%. In November, China imported 11,054.0 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 113,920.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products mostly declined. For example, the national average price of rebar dropped by 17 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil dropped by 15 yuan. The prices of some iron ore products also decreased, such as the 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports, which dropped by 4 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore all declined, with decreases of 1.30%, 1.02%, and 1.14% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while those of iron ore decreased [12]. 4. Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory, price trends, and production situations of steel and iron ore, including the weekly and total inventory changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the inventory of iron ore in ports and steel mills, and the production indicators of steel mills such as blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates [14][19][30]. 5.后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 16.77 million tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 10.96 million tons. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weak. The weekly output decreased by 4.70 million tons, but the inventory is high. Demand continues to decline, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 5.36 million tons. It is expected to continue to seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The end - user demand of iron ore is declining, and the supply remains high. It is expected that the price will decline under pressure in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,123.00 | -34↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1477577 | +3036↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -41726 | +5599↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -6 | +14↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 68176 | +2135↑ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 168 | +5↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,310.00 | -20↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,395 | -21↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,540.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,190.00 | -10↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 187.00 | +14↑ ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月08日08时23分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。上周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大，市场对政策面预期增强，强预期 占主导。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约的期价震荡上行，创近一个月高点后回落，短线有望延续之前的震荡企稳回升态势 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有，中线交易，逢低可少量加仓 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3157 | -18 | -0.57% | 47 | ...