Group 1 - The core issue is the significant loss of U.S. soybean market share to Brazil and Argentina, with 12 million tons of orders directed to South America, representing half of China's soybean demand for the next two months, leaving U.S. farmers frustrated and with unsold stock [1] - The U.S.-China trade tensions have led to retaliatory tariffs, severely impacting U.S. farmers who rely on the Chinese market for exports of soybeans, corn, and pork, resulting in a drastic reduction in U.S. soybean export contracts [3] - As of the end of July, U.S. soybean export contracts for the new season were only 3 million tons, the lowest in nearly two decades, contrasting sharply with previous years when orders from China were filled well into the year [5] Group 2 - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing challenges not only from China but also from Canada and Mexico, as trade agreements like USMCA may lead to disputes over agricultural subsidies and market access, further complicating the situation for U.S. farmers [7] - The strategy of diversifying supply chains away from the U.S. has been effective for China, which has reduced its dependency on U.S. agricultural products, causing significant economic repercussions for American farmers [7] - The silence of U.S. political leadership, particularly from former President Trump, is viewed as a betrayal of the farmers who supported him, as their interests are being overlooked in favor of political posturing [7]

Group 1 - The international gold price has surpassed the 3400 mark, reaching a two-week high, driven by escalating global trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Analysts indicate that the activity level in the precious metals market has significantly increased, with different trading sessions exhibiting distinct characteristics [1] - The trading dynamics vary across sessions: the Asian session often experiences fluctuations due to geopolitical news, the European session sees increased capital inflow, and the American session is prone to significant volatility due to Federal Reserve policy movements [1] Group 2 - Precious metals are global assets with trading sessions covering Asia, Europe, and America, forming a 24-hour continuous trading system [2] - The ability to operate flexibly across different trading sessions directly impacts investors' opportunities to capture safe-haven asset allocations [2] - A reputable spot gold platform must provide trading windows that synchronize with global markets, which is a key measure of the platform's professionalism [2] Group 3 - Different trading sessions exhibit distinct market rhythms, necessitating high demands for order execution speed and capital flexibility on trading platforms [3] - Gold盛贵金属 supports MT4 & MT5 platforms, ensuring high-speed order execution and flexible trading operations across all sessions [3] - The platform's capital flow efficiency is highly aligned with trading sessions, offering instant deposit and two-hour withdrawal services to meet investors' capital adjustment needs [3] Group 4 - Transparency and security are core concerns for investors in the long trading hours and complex market of precious metals [4] - 金盛贵金属, as an AA class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, provides transaction codes for trades over 0.1 lots, allowing for verification on the exchange [4] - The platform employs international standard online coding technology and SSL encryption to safeguard customer data and transaction security during 24-hour trading [4] Group 5 - New investors in gold should choose reputable platforms, verifying their regulatory qualifications and transaction coding [7] - Familiarity with the characteristics of different trading sessions is crucial, as the Asian session is less volatile and suitable for practice, while the American session is more volatile and requires position control [7] - Utilizing stop-loss tools is essential, and maintaining rational judgment is particularly important during periods of market volatility [7]

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, developed economies showed stable demand for commodities, with Europe recovering and the US maintaining resilience, while Japan and South Korea experienced weaker economic conditions [1] - Emerging economies, except for India, saw a decline in economic growth, leading to a slight decrease in commodity demand growth [1] - As the deadline for the US to impose additional tariffs approaches, market investors have mixed expectations for global commodity demand in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Copper prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, averaging around $9,500 per ton, influenced by anticipated US tariffs and "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - Demand for copper is expected to remain strong in the short term, with an estimated inflow of 180,000 tons into the US before tariffs take effect, but long-term outlook remains bearish [2] - Domestic copper production is projected to be between 1.05 million and 1.08 million tons per month in the second half of the year, with a global increase in refined copper production of 320,000 tons, a 2.4% rise [2][3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Insights - The aluminum market faced oversupply pressures in the first half of the year, with prices fluctuating between 2,850 and 3,400 RMB per ton [4] - Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by around 4%, translating to an increase of approximately 1.8 million tons [4] - The domestic aluminum supply is projected to increase by 1.2 million tons, a 2.8% rise, with no significant supply gaps anticipated in the global market [4][5] Group 4: Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been under pressure due to global trade tensions, with prices rebounding towards production cost levels by the end of the second quarter [6] - The supply of nickel remains ample, with a decline in high-grade nickel production and an increase in overall refining capacity [6] - Demand for nickel, particularly from the stainless steel sector, is expected to remain weak, with price fluctuations projected between 105,000 and 128,000 RMB per ton [6] Group 5: Tin Market Outlook - Tin prices have shown a "high-low-rebound" trend in the first half of the year, with global apparent consumption initially expected to grow by 5% but later revised to negative due to declining end-user demand [7][8] - Supply from Indonesia increased, while production from Malaysia and Bolivia decreased, leading to a slight overall supply increase [7] - The expected price range for tin in the second half of the year is between $30,000 and $36,000 per ton [8] Group 6: Lead Market Dynamics - Lead prices increased by 2.6% in the first half of the year, with an average price of 16,975 RMB per ton, despite a decline in import demand [9] - Global lead production is expected to grow by 4%, while recycled lead production is projected to decline by 4.8% [10] - The lead market is anticipated to experience supply and demand growth in the second half of the year, with price fluctuations expected between 16,500 and 17,800 RMB per ton [10] Group 7: Black Commodity Market Trends - The black commodity market faced downward pressure due to oversupply, high inventories, and weakened export expectations [11] - Crude steel demand is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year in the second half, with a reduction in production of approximately 10 million tons for the year [11][12] - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate between $76 and $85 per ton internationally, with domestic prices ranging from 656 to 730 RMB per ton [12] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Market Developments - Lithium carbonate prices have significantly decreased, with a drop of 22% to 62,260 RMB per ton by June 30 [13] - The lithium market is entering a phase of capacity clearing, with supply pressures expected to continue into the second half of the year [13][15] - Demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow by 22% in the second half, with prices expected to stabilize between 50,000 and 70,000 RMB per ton [15] Group 9: Industrial Silicon Market Projections - Industrial silicon prices have been on a downward trend, with supply expected to increase slightly in the second half of the year [16][17] - The market is anticipated to achieve a tight balance between supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate between 6,500 and 9,500 RMB per ton [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that since 2020, the net worth of global family offices has been on the rise, with a focus on long-term investment goals and diversification [1] - Family offices are reducing cash holdings and increasing investments in developed market equities, while also raising allocations to private debt to enhance returns and diversify portfolios [1] - Nearly half (48%) of Asia-Pacific family offices plan to increase their allocation to developed market equities, and 40% intend to raise their exposure to emerging market equities [1] Group 2 - The proportion of family offices planning to increase allocations to gold and precious metals has reached a historical high of 21%, up from 10%-16% in the previous years [2] - North America and Western Europe remain the most favored investment destinations, with nearly four-fifths (79%) of global family office assets allocated to these regions [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, 39% of family offices plan to increase investments in mainland China, with healthcare/pharmaceuticals (33%) and generative AI (28%) being the most familiar sectors [2] Group 3 - Major geopolitical conflicts and global trade tensions are the top concerns for family offices, with 61% expressing worries about geopolitical conflicts and 53% anxious about a global economic recession [3] - Climate change is viewed as one of the top three risks by 49% of Asia-Pacific family offices, while debt crises and financial market crises are also significant concerns [3] Group 4 - To mitigate risks, family offices are advised to diversify their investments, with 40% relying on investment managers for selection or active management [4] - The use of hedge funds is prevalent among nearly one-third (31%) of family offices, while 27% are increasing allocations to illiquid assets [4] - Family offices are rapidly evolving as a wealth management sub-industry, with a growing need for succession planning among Chinese entrepreneurs [4]

Group 1 - President Trump indicated a likely implementation of a unified tariff of 15% to 20% on countries without bilateral trade agreements by August 1 [1] - This statement suggests a significant increase from the previously proposed 10% baseline tariff, signaling a tougher stance from the Trump administration on non-trade agreement countries [1] - Trump emphasized the need for a unified tariff to simplify trade negotiations and protect domestic manufacturing and labor [1] Group 2 - Recent actions include a 15% import tax on Japan and a similar tariff on most European goods, indicating a shift in the U.S. global trade stance [2] - The proposed unified tax rate aligns closely with recent agreements, potentially simplifying trade management but risking retaliatory tariffs and escalating global trade tensions [2] - Critics warn that high tariffs could lead to increased prices, disrupted supply chains, and negatively impact U.S. competitiveness in the global supply system [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy uncertainty, and trade disputes, which have heightened market volatility and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The independence crisis of the Federal Reserve and President Trump's comments about possibly firing Powell have caused market turbulence, leading to a drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [3]. - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased due to economic slowdown forecasts, which may favor gold prices [3]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June remained flat month-on-month, easing concerns about immediate tightening of monetary policy, while year-on-year PPI showed an increase, indicating potential long-term inflation risks that could benefit gold [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly Israel's airstrikes in Syria, have intensified market risk aversion, boosting gold demand [3]. - Trade tensions, including Trump's threats of tariffs on EU imports and a unified tax rate on over 150 countries, have raised inflation and economic growth concerns, prompting investors to seek gold as a hedge [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently within a triangular convergence range since reaching 3500, with recent volatility observed [5]. - Key support levels include the 5/30-day moving average around 3342 and the 10/20-day moving average near 3332/3330, with a critical support level at 3319 [7]. - Resistance levels to watch are the recent high of 3377 and the 3400 area, which has previously acted as a resistance zone [7]. - The four-hour chart indicates a complex structure, with key levels at 3282 and 3247 to monitor for potential downward breaks [9]. Upcoming Focus - Key economic data releases to watch include U.S. retail sales for June and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, which could impact market sentiment and gold prices [4].

Supply Outlook - Natural rubber production is expected to increase in the second half of the year, with significant growth in exports from Africa to China, leading to a sufficient supply in the domestic market [2][35] - The global production of natural rubber is projected to grow by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons by 2025, while consumption is expected to rise by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [8] - Thailand's natural rubber production from January to May was 1.432 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports to China rising by 39.69% [11] - Vietnam's natural rubber production decreased by 2.3% to 0.281 million tons from January to May, facing challenges in growth potential [14] - African natural rubber production reached 1.76 million tons in 2022, with Côte d'Ivoire being a major contributor, and exports to China are expected to increase due to zero-tariff policies [19] Demand Uncertainty - The macroeconomic environment and rising global trade tensions have created significant uncertainty in international demand for natural rubber in the second half of the year [26] - Domestic demand is supported by policies such as "old-for-new" tire replacement and the promotion of new energy vehicles, which are expected to boost consumption [34] - Despite high tire production and export levels, inventory pressures remain significant, with tire manufacturers facing high stock levels [31] - The U.S. tariff policies and the EU's anti-dumping investigations may impact global tire trade and demand, leading to further uncertainty [30] Overall Market Outlook - With an expected increase in supply and strong uncertainties in terminal demand, natural rubber prices are anticipated to remain in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year [36]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In the first week of July, passenger car sales reached 238,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, but a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth was 0.8% year-on-year and 4.76% month-on-month as of July 11[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1465.4, down 12.5% month-on-month and down 23.5% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery this week[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 13, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.21 percentage points to 83.44%[3] - Cement shipment rate was 39.9%, indicating continued weakness in real estate and infrastructure[3] - The operating rate of semi-steel tires in the automotive sector increased by 5.39 percentage points to 71.67%[2] Price Performance - As of July 11, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 1.12% week-on-week, while the price of eggs fell by 1.49%[2] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.17% and 1.90% respectively, indicating a continued upward trend in oil prices[3] - Copper prices surged by 6.13% as a result of the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by Trump[3] Fiscal and Investment Insights - This week, the issuance of general government bonds reached 193.1 billion, with a progress rate of 59.4%[3] - New local bonds issued amounted to 21.6 billion, with a progress rate of 58.4%[3] - The cement shipment rate showed a slight decline, while the asphalt operating rate continued to rise, indicating stable construction activity[3] International Trade and Policy Risks - Trump has threatened to reintroduce large-scale tariffs on August 1, potentially raising effective tariff rates back to around 20%[2] - The proposed tariffs include a 50% tariff on copper and potential tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with drug tariffs possibly reaching 200%[3] - The effective tariff rate for the EU could increase from 20% to 30%, and for Canada from 25% to 35%[3]

Core Viewpoint - The external environment is improving, leading to a gradual rise in the A-share market, with recent international situations showing signs of stabilization [1] Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a slow upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs in recent weeks, while the Shenzhen Component Index also rebounded [1] - Last week, the average daily trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.4 trillion, showing a slight decline compared to the previous week [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards traditional industries such as steel and building materials, with banks also performing relatively strongly [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the consolidation range observed in May and June, indicating a shift in trading focus [1] - On Friday, the index challenged significant technical resistance from the fourth quarter of the previous year but faced a pullback after encountering resistance [1] - Without substantial positive news, it is expected that a significant upward breakthrough may be challenging [1]

黄金从当前走势来看，周线依然处于高位震荡格局，日线处于布林带三轨之间进行缩口横盘，多空转换频率较 快。目前受非农数据压制，黄金反弹未过3345分水岭，此位置正是3365高位"M"顶的颈线位置，来了个底顶转换 后继续承压。那么本周需要关注的两个关键位置就是3345和3365；而下方则是3312附近支撑和3300大关防守。 手指不停的敲打着键盘，眼神看似专注的盯着电脑，有时脑子却已经在游离，突然间就变成了晚睡的一族，偶尔 琢磨这一天做了什么，还有什么待完成，生怕生命中落下点什么，或许精神过于紧张，或许过于为之操心，有种 热爱、有份喜欢才让一切变的如此充实！ 美国6月非农就业报告远超预期，但并没有指出经济过热，而是显示出相对稳定的增长速度，这意外强劲的数据浇 灭了市场对美联储本月降息的希望。另外，特朗普全球关税暂停期将在7月9日到期，若全球贸易摩擦再起，或将 进一步加剧市场对避险资产的需求。 黄金上周初因特朗普"大而美"法案通过，依托3245支撑展开了三连阳的大幅反弹，重回3300大关之上，最高触及 3366位置，涨幅近120余点。可惜的是，美国非农数据意外强劲，降低了美联储本月降息预期，从而打压黄金出现 了大幅回 ...