Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals, each with its own market situation, influencing factors, and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a buy - on - dips approach; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term; for zinc, suggest waiting and seeing; for nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, expect high - level oscillations; for tin, suggest waiting and seeing in the short - term and holding on dips in the long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations at the cycle bottom; for lithium carbonate, price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances [1][2][4]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai - copper decreased by 30, the spread between waste and refined copper remained unchanged, and the inventory of SHFE increased by 3405 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is expected to be less than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of price - setting and receiving goods is expected to increase, driving inventory reduction. Copper cable and aluminum cable construction are diverging [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Maintain a buy - on - dips approach, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and the inventory of SHFE remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is increasing slightly, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there was seasonal inventory accumulation. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold on dips in the long - term [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai zinc increased by 10, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose. The domestic TC decreased, and the imported TC increased. In the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc ore will be tighter, while overseas ore production increased significantly in the second quarter. In October, smelting capacity recovered slightly. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is decreasing [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window, it is recommended to wait and see. For the domestic - foreign spread, gradually take profits on the long - domestic - short - foreign spread and look for opportunities in the far - month reverse spread. For the inter - month spread, pay attention to the long - December - short - February spread [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 450 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the domestic inventory is stable while the overseas inventory is increasing. The Indonesian parade has subsided, but there are still disturbances in the Indonesian ore market [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the report. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled and hot - rolled coils decreased by 100, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In October, steel mill production increased slightly. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron are stable. There was inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the report. Lead - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the lead price rose due to macro - factors. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recovery of scrap lead production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand for batteries may weaken after the National Day. The refined - scrap spread is - 25, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 10 [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will oscillate at a high level next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,400 [14]. Tin - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the tin position decreased by 1121 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the tin price increased due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting capacity has been reduced, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has slightly improved, and the domestic inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, follow the macro - sentiment and wait and see. In the long - term, hold on dips close to the cost line [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis increased by 285, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis changed, with the warehouse receipts increasing by 343 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Xinjiang's leading enterprises are resuming production, and Sichuan and Yunnan's production is stable. There is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be balanced in Q4 [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased by 100, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 1538 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillated. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell at low prices, and traders are holding back supplies. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The market is still in a stage of over - capacity [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances, and there is strong downward price support before the disturbances [18].

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price dropped 4.5% on Friday due to Trump's tariff announcement, closing above $10,300 per ton. The current tariff impact and market panic are estimated to be lower than the Tomb - Sweeping Festival disturbance [1]. - The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of price - fixing and goods receiving is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory depletion [1]. - Maintain a callback - buying strategy for copper, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. However, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars due to the holiday effect [1]. - The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is strengthening. But the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, leading to a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold at low prices in the long term [1]. Group 3: Zinc - The domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose this week due to the US government shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window [2]. - The domestic TC of zinc is decreasing, and the imported TC is increasing. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore supply increased more than expected in the second quarter [2]. - The domestic fundamentals of zinc are poor, but the export window may open due to export profits. It is recommended to wait and see under the enhanced macro - uncertainty. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of far - month reverse spreads. Also, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. Group 4: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is stable in China and increasing overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak [4]. - The Indonesian protests have subsided, but there are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore sector, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices [4]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - Steel mills' production schedules in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable, and there is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijia and Foshan, with the warehouse receipts remaining stable [9]. - The overall fundamentals are weak. The short - term macro - trade friction uncertainty increases, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. Group 6: Lead - The lead price rose this week due to macro factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October, and the primary lead concentrate is in short supply [13]. - The battery production rate increased this week, but the finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day, the demand may weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level next week, ranging from 17,000 to 17,400 [13]. Group 7: Tin - The tin price moved up this week due to macro factors. The domestic processing fee for tin ore is low, and some domestic smelters have reduced production. Overseas supply is expected to recover in October [16]. - The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the overseas LME inventory is fluctuating at a low level [16]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long term [16]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are balanced in Q4 [17]. - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [17]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated this week. Overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and traders are reluctant to sell, but salt factories have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore [17]. - The pre - holiday inventory - building rhythm was strong first and then weak and is now approaching the end. The spot basis is stable and slightly weak, and some discounts have widened by 100 - 200 yuan [17]. - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, and the static supply - demand pattern is still in surplus. With the help of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy - storage demand, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, but the amplitude is average [17].

Group 1 - The report highlights the long-term allocation value of Hong Kong-listed central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dividend assets, which have shown stable performance amid global economic uncertainties and recent tariff conflicts [1][7][19] - As of October 10, 2025, the returns of major indices over the past two years are as follows: Hang Seng Index at 45.85%, Hang Seng Tech at 54.03%, Hang Seng High Dividend at 51.35%, and the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index at 31.15% [8][9][19] - The report indicates that dividend assets have lower volatility and stronger stability compared to other indices during market fluctuations, particularly during the recent tariff shocks [11][19] Group 2 - The trading congestion of Hong Kong SOE dividend assets has increased, yet they remain relatively undervalued, offering high investment value [19][45] - The dividend yield of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index is 6.07%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield by 4.22 percentage points [25][27] - The report notes that the relative attractiveness of dividend assets has improved due to declining bond yields, with the yield ratio of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index to the 10-year government bond yield reaching 3.29 as of October 10, 2025 [26][27] Group 3 - As of October 10, 2025, the total market capitalization of Hong Kong-listed SOEs is 13.5 trillion HKD, accounting for 17% of the overall market [35][36] - The report details that the H-share SOE PE (TTM) averages are 4.93, with a market-weighted average of 9.38, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the overall Hong Kong market [45][51] - The report also highlights that the dividend yield of Hong Kong SOEs is generally higher than that of A-shares, with a significant contribution from state-owned enterprises [8][9][69]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 100% tariff on imports from China by the U.S. has triggered significant market reactions, indicating a renewed phase of trade tensions between the two countries [1][2][14]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, global markets experienced a downturn, with major U.S. indices closing lower, marking the largest single-day drop since April [3][4]. - The cryptocurrency market also faced substantial declines, with Bitcoin dropping by 9% and a total liquidation amounting to $19.216 billion [5]. Tariff Implications - If the new tariffs are implemented, the import tax rate on Chinese goods could reach 130%, close to the earlier peak of 145% [2]. - The U.S. is using tariffs as a negotiation tool, with the timing of the implementation set for November 1, suggesting a potential for further discussions with China [23]. Strategic Responses - In response to U.S. actions, China is considering implementing export controls on rare earth materials, which are crucial for high-end chip manufacturing, thereby countering U.S. advantages in technology [6][8][11]. - The trade conflict is expected to have negative implications for capital markets, with a likelihood of a market correction similar to previous events [14][15]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term perspective suggests that as long as negotiations continue, significant market disruptions may be avoided [25]. - Historical patterns indicate that after initial declines, markets tend to recover, presenting potential buying opportunities post-correction [25].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shen Yufei, the Chief Equity Investment Officer at BlackRock Fund, has resigned from managing the BlackRock China New Horizons Mixed Fund and the BlackRock Industry Preferred Mixed Fund due to personal reasons [2][4] - Shen Yufei's management returns for the BlackRock China New Horizons Mixed Fund and the BlackRock Industry Preferred Mixed Fund are reported as 22.18% and -1.34% respectively [1][2] - The BlackRock Industry Preferred Mixed Fund, which was established in March 2023, has seen a decline of 13% in its unit net value since inception, underperforming its benchmark by 15.9 percentage points [1][3] Group 2 - As of the end of the second quarter, the BlackRock Industry Preferred Mixed Fund had a stock allocation of 91.43% and did not hold any bonds [3] - The fund's top ten holdings include China Galaxy, Haili Wind Power, Juhua Co., Jiangsu Bank, Yifang Bio, China Ping An, Sanmei Co., Crystal Optoelectronics, Guorui Technology, and Zijin Mining [3] - The fund's semi-annual report indicates that while the operational strategies around tariff impacts were generally effective, there were shortcomings in the depth and breadth of research coverage, which the fund aims to improve in the future [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, suggesting holding [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Suggesting range trading; bearish on near-term glass contracts [1][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Suggesting moderately holding long positions at low levels for copper; buying on dips for aluminum; suggesting range trading for nickel and tin; buying on dips for silver and gold after price corrections [1][10] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy; other products are mostly expected to oscillate [1][19] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate strongly; apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate [1][34] - Agricultural and Livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs when prices are high; corn is expected to oscillate within a range; soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; oils are expected to oscillate at high levels [1][38] Core Views - The global stock market has shown a synchronized upward trend after the tariff conflict, mainly due to the global pricing of interest rate cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The A-share market is expected to enter an upward trend, with the realization of profit improvement expectations as the main driver in the next stage [5] - The bond market shows a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market is under pressure from the strong performance of the equity market, there is still room for the central bank to increase its holdings of treasury bonds, and the market expects a bond market recovery [5][6] - The prices of black building materials such as coking coal, steel, and glass are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and safety inspections, and are expected to maintain an oscillating or weakening trend in the short term [7][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are influenced by factors such as global central bank policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to have upward potential in the future [10][11] - The prices of energy and chemical products such as PVC, caustic soda, and styrene are affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and macro policies, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][22] - The prices of agricultural products such as cotton, apples, and jujubes are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, and are expected to oscillate or show a strong oscillating trend [34][35] - The prices of agricultural and livestock products such as pigs, eggs, and corn are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and consumption seasons, and are expected to show different trends in the short and long term [38][40] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Stock Indices: On Tuesday, the market oscillated and adjusted, with the three major indices showing different trends. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 10 consecutive days. The market is expected to enter an upward trend, and investors should maintain positions, choose opportunities, and make appropriate internal high-low switches [5] - Treasury Bonds: On Tuesday, the bond market showed a stock-bond seesaw effect. Although the bond market was under pressure from the equity market, the news that the central bank has room to increase its holdings of treasury bonds boosted the bond market. The bond market is expected to recover [5][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: On August 25, coal prices continued to decline, with the sales atmosphere being cold and the decline slightly increasing. The downstream market has a low willingness to purchase, and safety inspections continue to be upgraded. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - Steel: On Tuesday, steel futures prices were weak. The supply and demand in the real economy have weakened, but the off-season is coming to an end. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] - Glass: On August 26, glass futures declined. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. The near-term contract is expected to decline slightly, while the long-term contract can be observed for signs of stabilization [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: After the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell's dovish remarks boosted copper prices. The domestic market demand has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with a suggested strategy of moderately holding long positions at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation have been affected by the rainy season. The domestic downstream demand is expected to enter the peak season, and the inventory has shown marginal improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is expected to remain stable, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus situation. The price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of stainless steel has declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [14][15] - Tin: The domestic refined tin production has increased, and the import of tin concentrate has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank summit have increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The trade negotiation results have been announced, and the market is optimistic about the signing of a trade agreement between Europe and the United States. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and cost disturbances [19][20] - Caustic Soda: The spot price increase has slowed down, and there is a short-term callback due to warehouse receipt factors. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and export conditions [22] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the macro policy is favorable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and pure benzene supply [24] - Rubber: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little, and the inventory has decreased. The tire companies' willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials has decreased. It is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer inventory is high, and the enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price support level [28] - Methanol: The supply has increased slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate due to the influence of industrial product prices [29][30] - Polyolefins: The cost is supported by coal-based olefins, the supply of polyethylene has decreased due to maintenance, the downstream demand has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the L contract is expected to have stronger support [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market is still sluggish, and the 09 contract faces delivery pressure. The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to implement a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, the macro environment has become better, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34][35] - Apples: The early-maturing apples are on the market, with the quality and price varying. The inventory of Fuji apples is stable and light. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating trend based on low inventory and growth factors [35] - Jujubes: The jujube trees are in the fruit expansion period, and the weather may affect the quality. The market price is expected to oscillate upward in the near term [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The market has a bullish expectation for the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the spot performance is disappointing. The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to take a short position on the 11 and 01 contracts and consider a long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [38][40] - Eggs: The current main contract has a large premium. The spot price may rebound slightly, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to factors such as chicken culling and cold storage eggs [40][42] - Corn: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is expected to increase. The cost has decreased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds or implement a 11-1 reverse arbitrage strategy [42][44] - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure from state reserves. However, the cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [44][45] - Oils: The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and policies. They are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a rolling long strategy. Attention should be paid to the palm oil 1-5 spread arbitrage opportunity [46][51]

Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares have shown strong performance since August, driven by improved global manufacturing sentiment and rising domestic demand[3] - The overall valuation of the TMT and military sectors has reached historical highs, indicating limited room for further expansion[4] - The shift from small-cap growth represented by the National Index 2000 to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext Index is evident, reflecting accelerated industry rotation[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector's profitability is expected to improve, with the lower limit of net profit margins confirmed by February 2025[4] - As of July, the electricity consumption in the secondary industry has shown a continuous recovery for five months, indicating a positive trend in production activity[4] - The average ROE for non-financial companies in the A-share market is projected to improve in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, suggesting a broadening of profit recovery across sectors[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery, such as industrial metals and capital goods, as they are expected to see increased demand[5] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from capital returns reaching a bottom, alongside brokerage firms[5] - Opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors are emerging, particularly in food and beverage and electric equipment, as large-cap stocks begin to outperform[5] Group 4: Risks - There is a risk that domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, which could impact market performance[6] - A significant downturn in the global economy could also pose risks to the A-share market[6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the opportunities and challenges for Chinese enterprises in overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by 2025, highlighting the significant changes in global trade dynamics and the need for compliance, financing, and transaction structuring considerations [1][5][11]. Group 1: M&A Market Overview - As of June 2025, M&A transactions involving Chinese mainland companies accounted for 13% of the global market share, totaling $252 billion, a 130% increase year-over-year, with transaction numbers up by 13% [6]. - The number of mega-deals (over $5 billion) globally increased by 67% compared to the previous year, while transactions over $1 billion involving Chinese mainland companies surged by 440% [6]. - However, cross-border transactions involving Chinese mainland companies totaled $7.4 billion, a decrease of 32% from the previous year, with Sino-American cross-border M&A down by 30% [6]. Group 2: Regional Insights and Trends - Southeast Asia has seen nearly $500 billion in cross-border M&A over the past decade, primarily in high-tech, finance, and industrial sectors, with Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia being popular target countries [6]. - Indonesia is highlighted as a growing market with a young workforce and a projected economy ranking seventh globally by 2030, attracting more companies for investment [12]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The article outlines the risks and challenges of entering the Indonesian market, including significant changes in economic trends and industry distributions, particularly in infrastructure and public construction [12]. - Legal considerations for investments in Indonesia are emphasized, including requirements for LLCs and specific industry regulations [12]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The article notes that Chinese enterprises are increasingly adopting strategies such as nearshoring and brand acquisitions to navigate global tariff challenges, with examples of companies successfully leveraging local production to reduce costs [19]. - The importance of risk management tools is highlighted, with companies utilizing geopolitical due diligence and digital tools to monitor tariff policies and streamline decision-making processes [19].

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]