1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The asphalt market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with low inventory and a lower-than-seasonal inventory accumulation rate in the first half of the year. Supply pressure and market contradictions are limited, providing support for spot prices but lacking upward momentum. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, there are no significant expected changes in the supply and demand of asphalt. The seasonal recovery of terminal demand and the marginal improvement of refinery tax pressure are insufficient to form a new trend. With weak fundamental drivers in the asphalt market, the futures price will be more affected by crude oil price fluctuations. - Based on the analysis of the oil market fundamentals, if there are no major geopolitical or macro - events, the asphalt price center may show a short - term oscillation and a medium - term slow downward trend. Notably, the downward elasticity of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil, and the crack spread may be continuously supported in the future. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillatory, with short - term support and a medium - term potential to follow the downward shift of the oil price center. There are no specific strategies for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options trading [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Crude Oil: Current Fundamentals are Fair but Expectations are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in the Fourth Quarter - In the first half of this year, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly without a sustained trend, mainly due to increased geopolitical and macro - level disturbances and significantly higher market volatility. - At the beginning of the year, due to increased US sanctions on Russia, the market worried about a decline in Russian oil supply, and crude oil prices rose rapidly, with Brent once breaking through the $80/barrel mark. However, subsequent data verified that Russian exports remained resilient, and the refinery maintenance season led to a decline in raw material procurement demand, causing oil prices to gradually fall from the high point in late January. - After Trump took office as the new US president, the market started to trade the impact of his policies, including expectations of easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, tariff increases, pushing OPEC to increase production, canceling new energy support policies, accelerating LNG project export approvals, and exerting extreme pressure on Iran. These policies had both positive and negative impacts on the oil market, but the negative effects were more prominent. - In April, Trump officially announced his reciprocal tariff policy, which exceeded market expectations in terms of scope and magnitude and led to counter - measures from trading partners, including China. If fully implemented, it would significantly impact global economic trade and oil consumption. Coupled with OPEC's decision to gradually increase production quotas, oil prices accelerated their decline, with Brent once falling below the $60/barrel mark. - Subsequently, there were signs of marginal improvement in the tariff conflict. The US postponed tariffs for most trading partners until July 9, and on May 12, China and the US reached an important consensus and issued a joint statement, reducing the tariff increase from 125% to 10% (with a 3 - month suspension for another 24%), leading to a rebound in oil prices. - In June, the crude oil market was disturbed by geopolitical conflicts, and volatility increased significantly. The Israel - Iran conflict led to concerns about oil supply disruptions, causing a sharp short - term increase in international oil prices, with Brent approaching the $80/barrel mark. After the cease - fire was announced, oil prices quickly fell back [12][13][14]. 3.2 In the First Half of 2025, the Asphalt Market Maintained a Pattern of Weak Supply and Demand, and the Crack Spread Rose Significantly - In the first half of 2025, the domestic asphalt market generally maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand with relatively few market contradictions. Low refinery operating rates and production, combined with low inventory levels, provided strong support for the spot market. However, weak terminal demand restricted the upward movement of the market. - From January to June, the main contract of BU fluctuated in the range of 3200 - 3900 yuan/ton, with a higher price center compared to last year. Geopolitical and macro - factors increased crude oil price volatility, which in turn affected asphalt futures prices. - In terms of the crack spread, asphalt was more resilient than crude oil. As the oil price center declined, the crack spread of BU to Brent rose from - 348 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to - 4 yuan/ton at the end of June, once entering positive territory [23]. 3.3 In the Second Half of 2025, There are No Significant Variables in the Asphalt Market, and Contradictions are Relatively Minor - The terminal demand for asphalt still lacks growth drivers. In the first five months of this year, the total actual demand for domestic asphalt was 1197000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Road asphalt consumption was 871000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Other downstream sectors had minor changes. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, road asphalt demand still lacks clear growth expectations. The lagging impact of suspended infrastructure projects last year and the focus on "new infrastructure" in fiscal policies limit the growth space and momentum of domestic asphalt demand. However, there is seasonal improvement potential in the third quarter after the end of the rainy season in the South [27]. 3.4 The Consumption Tax Deduction Ratio of Some Local Refineries has been Increased, but the Supply Growth of Asphalt Refineries is Still Restricted - Since the beginning of this year, the theoretical production profit of asphalt refineries has been in the negative range due to weak terminal demand, tight overseas heavy crude oil supply, and increased costs of sanctioned oil. After the consumption tax deduction ratio was reduced from full to 50% - 70%, the cost of using fuel oil as a processing raw material for refineries without crude oil quotas and limited device adjustment capabilities increased significantly. - The operating rate of the asphalt industry has been suppressed at a low level. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic asphalt device operating rate has been around 30%, similar to last year's level. - In the second half of the year, there is no strong motivation for a large - scale release of asphalt refinery supply, but marginal changes are worth noting. Some refineries have increased production due to a 25% increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio, but this only applies to refineries with crude oil quotas. - In the long - term, the over - capacity of asphalt is the core factor suppressing production profits. As of now, the national asphalt production capacity is expected to reach 79.21 million tons/year, far exceeding the consumption level of over 30 million tons. The government has proposed to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and the asphalt supply will continue to be restricted [40][41][43]. 3.5 The US Revoked Venezuelan Oil Licenses, and the Discount of Diluted Asphalt is Running at a High Level - Trump revoked the oil licenses of companies such as Chevron in Venezuela. If future negotiations do not progress and US policies do not change, Venezuelan oil production may decline significantly in the medium - term, but it may be diverted from the US to Asia in the short - term. - As OPEC gradually relaxes production cuts, Middle Eastern oil - producing countries may increase the supply of medium - heavy crude oil, alleviating the tight supply of overseas heavy oil to some extent. - After the expansion of the Canadian TMX pipeline last year, it can transport heavy crude oil to the west coast for export, mainly to the US West Coast, the US Gulf Coast, and the Asia - Pacific market, becoming a new source of heavy crude oil supply for China and restricting the upward space of the diluted asphalt discount [52]. 3.6 The Asphalt Market has Limited Contradictions and Support at the Lower Level - The asphalt market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with low inventory and limited supply pressure and market contradictions. Spot prices are supported but lack upward momentum. - In the second half of the year, there are no significant expected changes in supply and demand. The asphalt price center may show a short - term oscillation and a medium - term slow downward trend, and the crack spread may be continuously supported [63].

Group 1 - The central theme of the 2025 European Central Bank Forum is "Adapting to Change: Macroeconomic Transformation and Policy Responses," focusing on the impact of U.S. trade conflicts on the global economy [1] - ECB President Lagarde emphasized that uncertainty will continue to be a key characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to increased inflation volatility [3] - A report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) indicated that U.S. tariffs have pushed economic uncertainty to "crisis-levels," with risks to consumer prices, public finances, and the financial system [3] Group 2 - Despite similar geopolitical and trade challenges, central bank leaders have differing policy stances, with the ECB considering multiple rate cuts while the Fed maintains its current rate range [4] - The eurozone's inflation rate slightly increased to 2% in June, aligning with the ECB's inflation target, indicating the completion of the previous monetary policy intervention cycle [5] - Lagarde is positioned to strengthen the euro's status amid the dollar's decline, aiming to establish the euro as a stable currency during uncertain times [5] Group 3 - During a panel discussion, Fed Chair Powell noted that U.S. inflation is performing as expected, but tariff impacts may appear in future data, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [6] - Lagarde stated that the ECB is prepared to respond to complex economic situations but refrained from committing to future interest rate directions [6] - The Bank of England's Bailey highlighted the negative impact of fragmentation on global economic activity, advocating for a return to multilateral order [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, focusing on inflation trends, consumer confidence, and the impact of tariffs on economic activity. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Data**: In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.13% month-over-month, which was below the expected 0.2%. The core CPI rose by 0.3%, also falling short of expectations. This indicates a weak inflation environment despite some positive sentiment in soft data like consumer confidence indices [1][6][15]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: High tariffs have negatively impacted the U.S. economy, acting like a tax increase on residents. This has led to a decline in labor income and reduced transfer payments, which in turn has constrained consumer spending and increased living costs [5][9]. - **Consumer Confidence vs. Hard Data**: There is a divergence between soft data (like small business and consumer confidence indices) showing recovery and hard data (like unemployment claims and inflation metrics) indicating weakness. This discrepancy is largely attributed to the adverse effects of tariff conflicts [2][7][8]. - **Service Sector Trends**: The service sector has seen a decline in inflation, with rental prices unexpectedly dropping, reflecting a trend of consumers opting for cheaper options due to budget constraints [4][12]. - **Future CPI Predictions**: It is anticipated that the CPI will begin to rise from May onwards, potentially reaching a year-end level of around 3%. However, the month-over-month growth is expected to remain lower than market predictions [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Automobile Market Dynamics**: The U.S. automobile market is experiencing mixed signals, with new car prices negatively contributing to inflation due to weak demand and high interest rates, while parts prices have surged due to tariffs [11]. - **Import Price Changes**: Since April 2, prices of imported goods, particularly from China, have risen, with a monthly increase of 0.7%. In contrast, imports from Canada and Mexico have shown deflationary trends [10]. - **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook**: Given the economic data indicating a marginal recession, there is a strong expectation for the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts in September and December [16]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical events are highlighted as significant sources of market uncertainty, potentially overshadowing economic data like CPI [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the U.S. economy and the factors influencing it.

Core Points - The trade between China and the US has significantly declined due to extreme tariffs, but it has not reached zero [1][2] - In April 2025, China's exports to the US decreased by 21.0% year-on-year, while imports fell by 13.8% [2] - The tariffs imposed by both countries have led to a substantial impact on bilateral trade, with no clear winners in the trade war [2][4] Trade Statistics - In April 2025, the US saw a 29.1% decrease in exports to China and a 19.7% decrease in imports from China [2] - The share of US exports to China fell to 12.7%, with a significant drop to 10.5% in April 2025 [4] - The trade deficit between the US and China was recorded at $295.4 billion, a decrease of $79.8 billion [5][6] Impact of Tariffs - The extreme tariffs have resulted in a sharp decline in specific categories of goods, with some categories experiencing declines over 60% [10][12] - The largest category affected was "electromechanical, audio-visual equipment and parts," which saw a 29.2% decrease, accounting for 41.7% of China's total exports to the US [10][11] - The tariffs have particularly impacted small and medium-sized enterprises that export these goods, indicating a broader economic impact [12][14] Trade Dynamics with Other Countries - Vietnam has emerged as a significant intermediary for Chinese exports to the US, with a 54.9% increase in US imports from Vietnam in April 2025 [7][8] - The trade dynamics indicate that while Mexico's role has diminished due to tariffs, Vietnam continues to facilitate indirect exports from China to the US [6][7] - ASEAN countries have also seen an increase in exports from China, with a 20.8% growth in April 2025 compared to other regions [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a calm state before a potential upsurge, with various international and domestic news influencing different sectors [1]. - For key varieties, the report provides detailed analyses and outlooks, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, with different trends and influencing factors for each [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The US Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's tariff measures may continue to be in effect during the appeal process [4]. - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025 [5]. - **Industry News**: The online auction of coking coal from Mongolia's small TT company had all lots go unsold, with a total of 486,400 tons unsold in 10 auctions since the beginning of the year [6]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.55%, the FTSE China A50 Futures fell 0.18%, the US Dollar Index rose 0.16%, ICE Brent Crude fell 0.79%, London Gold Spot rose 0.03%, London Silver fell 0.60%, and other commodities also had corresponding price changes [7]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices rose, while the previous trading day's domestic stock indices declined in the afternoon, with small - cap stocks leading the decline. The current valuation of major domestic indices is low, and the market is expected to consolidate in the short term, with potential for directional movement and increased volatility if new stimuli emerge [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds led to a relatively loose market liquidity. With the US non - farm data exceeding expectations and the Fed's reduced expectation of interest rate cuts this year, and considering domestic economic data and the property market situation, the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.54% at night. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the US proposed temporary measures in the Iran - US nuclear negotiations. In the short term, crude oil prices are resistant to decline, but in the long term, a 1.2 million - barrel - per - day increase in production is a major negative factor [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.13% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories increased, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: Rubber rebounded slightly. With good weather in domestic production areas and smooth new rubber supply in Thailand, supply pressure is emerging, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a off - season, and the spot price is average. The rebound of international oil prices helps stabilize polyolefins, and they may gradually stop falling and attempt to rebound [15][16]. - **Glass/Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined and consolidated. Glass production enterprise inventories increased, and soda ash futures were also in a low - level consolidation. Both are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance process [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed divergent trends, with gold oscillating and silver strengthening. US economic data affected short - term interest rate cut expectations, and the gold - silver ratio is being repaired. Gold is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the intersection of multiple factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and concerns about US tariffs [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may have a wide - range fluctuation. With the improvement of concentrate supply and the recovery of smelting supply expected, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariffs and downstream production [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.25% at night. With Trump's wavering tariff attitude and potential improvements in the ore end, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to weaken in the short term, and it may oscillate [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% at night. With tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and other factors, the nickel market has both positive and negative factors, and the price may be slightly bullish and oscillating in the short term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased. Although the cathode production data is average, the cathode inventory is being digested. The overall fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to low - level capital games [23]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by strong production motivation of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large, and it is expected to be supported in the short term and weaken in the long term [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant for now. With the arrival of the rainy season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for steel is expected to weaken, and rebar may be weaker than hot - rolled coils in the short term [25]. - **Coking Coal/Coke**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded strongly, but the spot market responded slowly. With the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law and the approaching of the rainy season, attention should be paid to the negative feedback [26]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The US - China relationship improvement affects soybean oil, and the Malaysian palm oil data has a neutral impact on the market [27]. - **Protein Meals**: Protein meals are expected to be strongly oscillating. The improvement of US - China relations supports US soybean prices, while domestic oil mills' high - volume operations may accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal inventory [28]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Corn prices are expected to break through the high level. The feed demand is weak, but the supply is tight in the spot market, and the main contract can be considered bullish at a low level in the medium - long term [29]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure at a high level. With the expected increase in new cotton supply in Xinjiang and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to build long positions at a low level and expect demand recovery in the medium - long term [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is oscillating. The 08 contract is basically following the spot freight rate, and its ability to break through the previous high depends on the price increase in July and August. With the increase in shipping capacity, the market is expected to continue to oscillate, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [31][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors due to factors such as trade policies, economic data, and central bank policies [2][3][4] - Precious metals: Gold is in a long - term uptrend with short - term fluctuations, while silver is currently strong. Steel market faces supply - demand imbalance, and the crude oil market has short - term support but long - term pressure [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News International News - US May non - farm payrolls added 139,000, exceeding expectations. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by July is 16.5% [5] Domestic News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restart Canada - China relations and strengthen cooperation in various fields [6] Industry News - As of June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index increased by 167.64 points, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 3.3% [7] 3.2 Outer - disk Daily Earnings - S&P 500 increased by 0.09%, FTSE China A50 Futures decreased by 0.17%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 0.72% from June 6 to June 9 [8] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: Currently in a state of shock, with low implied volatility of stock index options. If there are new stimuli, it may choose a direction and increase volatility [10][11] - Treasury Bonds: Showed mixed performance. The market funds are relatively loose, and the price is supported to some extent, but it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations [12] Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: SC night session fluctuated upward. Short - term support exists, but long - term pressure comes from a 1.2 - million - barrel - per - day increase in production [4][13] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, with an increase in import arrivals expected [14] - Rubber: Supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15] - Polyolefins: May gradually stop falling and build a bottom, with limited driving force [16][17] - Glass/Soda Ash: Both are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the balance of supply and demand [18] Metal - Precious Metals: Gold is in shock, and silver is strong in the short term. The gold - silver ratio is being repaired [2][19] - Copper: May fluctuate in a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [20] - Zinc: Short - term price may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as US tariffs [21] - Aluminum: May fluctuate in the short term, with weakening demand [22][23] - Nickel: May show a shock - strong trend in the short term, with mixed supply and demand factors [24] - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to low - level capital games [25] Black - Iron Ore: Has short - term support but may be weak in the later stage, affected by factors such as steel mill production and global shipments [26] - Steel: Faces a situation of weak supply and demand, with rebar weaker than hot - rolled coils in the short term [3][27] - Coking Coal/Coke: Futures prices are at a low level, and the market is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback [28][29] Agricultural Products - Oils and Fats: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [30] - Protein Meal: Expected to be bullish in the short term due to improved US soybean export prospects and domestic inventory accumulation [31] - Corn/Corn Starch: The long - term supply gap may exist, and the main contract can be treated as bullish at a low level [32] - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure at a high level, and attention should be paid to export orders [33] Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the price increase in July and August [34][35]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月6日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2506 | 118.730 | 118.770 | 119.040 | 118.990 | 0.310 | 0.26 | 29 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank Executive Isabel Schnabel indicated that trade conflicts may suppress domestic inflation, highlighting the impact of global value chains on price shocks [1] Group 1 - Trade conflicts are likely to have a dampening effect on domestic inflation rates [1] - Global value chains are exacerbating price shocks, contributing to inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in international gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion and economic concerns, with potential long-term benefits for gold and gold-related stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - International gold prices have resumed an upward trend, with COMEX gold surpassing $3,400 per ounce and London spot gold rising by 2.5% to exceed $3,370 per ounce [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion due to increased tariffs on steel and aluminum by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from the EU, alongside escalating geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including the U.S. May ISM Manufacturing PMI and the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, fell below expectations, indicating negative impacts from tariff conflicts on the economy [1]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is noted as a contributing factor to the rise in gold prices [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Gold stocks are highlighted as having a higher investment value compared to gold assets, with strong first-quarter earnings reports from gold mining companies exceeding market expectations [2]. - The ongoing upward movement in gold prices and the expansion of gold mining companies are expected to sustain high growth in corporate earnings [2]. - Current valuations of major gold stocks are below historical averages, suggesting potential for systemic valuation increases as gold prices rise [2]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on gold stocks and assets, seizing the historical opportunity as the gold industry transitions from "cyclical beta" to "growth alpha" [2].

贵金属日报:关税担忧及地缘升级重新推升避险需求 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月3日 【行情回顾】 上周COMEX贵金属整体震荡微跌，但周一强势上涨。具体看，利空面，周一特朗普将欧盟50%关税威 胁的最后期限从6月1日推迟到7月9日，这一决定源于欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的主动致电请求，该消息 略微改善市场风险偏好，贵金属略承压； 周二美国股债汇齐升反映对美国财政担忧缓解，风险偏好改 善，资金重新回流美国市场，美消费者信心指数亦超预期；周三美债5Y拍卖良好，且美联储会议纪要继 续传递谨慎降息态度；周四亚盘早盘时段，贵金属市场一度快速回落，受美国法院叫停特朗普"解放 日"贸易政策这一消息影响。利多面，周四贵金属很快收复跌幅，因美国上诉法院迅速恢复了关税，叠加 特朗普邀请会见鲍威尔，亦引发美联储"独立性担忧"；周五晚间特朗普发文称中国违反与美国协议，关 税冲突担忧重新升温；周六早晨，白宫宣布自这周起，美国钢铁和铝进口关税从25%翻番至50%，这亦促 使欧盟委员会警告称欧洲准备报复，进一步加剧关税担忧，且俄乌冲突有所升级。 【资金与库存】 长线基 ...