1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in a state of range - bound trading, with steel prices supported by cost at the bottom but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations at the top. The running range of rebar is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is between 3000 - 3400 [1][7]. - The supply - demand balance of finished steel products is marginally improving, with inventory maintaining a destocking trend. However, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is gradually increasing. The high inventory of coil products remains a problem, and the consumption side lacks drivers [16][17]. Summary by Section Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The fundamental contradictions of finished steel products are not significant, maintaining a trend of production reduction and destocking. The consumption of hot - rolled coils improved significantly last week, but it may be due to pre - export rush before export controls take effect, and the sustainability of demand needs further attention [1]. - The profit of blast furnaces and electric furnaces has increased recently, so the intensity of finished steel production reduction may weaken. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly last week, but terminal demand is weak, and the destocking trend of rebar may slow down if production continues to increase without improvement in consumption [1]. - The pig iron output increased slightly last week, and whether it has bottomed out needs further observation. The slight increase in pig iron output supports the strength of iron ore prices, but the iron ore port inventory is accumulating, and there is also pressure on the upside of iron ore prices. The steel mill inventory of iron ore is relatively low compared to previous years, providing support for replenishment demand [1]. - The coking coal supply is relatively loose, restricting its upside space [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound trading. The running range of rebar is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is between 3000 - 3400 [7]. - **Near - Term Trading Logic**: The logic of steel production reduction and weak demand in the off - season; the supply - demand balance of rebar is marginally improving, with inventory maintaining a slow destocking trend, while the coil product side is still in a state of high inventory with large destocking pressure [4]. - **Long - Term Trading Expectations**: The anti - involution expectation always exists; the 14th Five - Year Plan expectation; the recovery of blast furnace and electric furnace profits, and the expectation of future production reduction is gradually weakening [6]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Wait and see [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The 01 - contract price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coil is 3100 - 3500 [7]. - **Rebar Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and worried about steel price decline, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures or sell call options. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures or sell put options [7]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - **Positive Information**: News of multi - department measures to boost consumption; marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of finished steel products with inventory destocking; gradual improvement in blast furnace and electric furnace profits; policies promoting coal clean and efficient use and traditional industry optimization [16]. - **Negative Information**: The steel peak season is not prosperous, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is increasing; the iron ore inventory at ports is accumulating again, and the high valuation of iron ore may affect the price of finished steel products; the coil product side is still in a state of high inventory with no consumption - side drivers [17]. 2.2 Next - Week Important Event Concerns - Next Wednesday, China's manufacturing PMI will be announced; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the current week will be announced; the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [15][24]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Analyzes the basis, spread between coil and rebar, term structure, and monthly spread structure of steel products through various seasonal charts [18][22][28][31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, and the motivation for the five major steel products to reduce production may gradually weaken [41]. 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - Analyzes the export profit of hot - rolled coils through various charts, including the relationship between export profit and export volume, and the relationship with overseas prices [62]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Provides data on steel production, inventory, and other aspects, such as the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the inventory of steel mills [90]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Analyzes the supply of steel products from aspects such as pig iron + scrap steel estimation, production prediction of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the relationship between steel mill profits and scrap steel consumption [97][98][101]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Predicts the consumption of steel products, including the consumption of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and other steel products, and analyzes the inventory of various steel products [114][124].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a slight increase in spot prices, but the basis remains weak, with production cuts and inventory management being key strategies to address seasonal demand weakness [1][2][4]. Supply - December production has decreased, continuing the trend of production cuts, with a reduction of nearly 200,000 tons, representing a 6.7% month-on-month decline [2] - Current iron and steel output is at 2.26 million tons, down by 30,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The production of major steel products has shown signs of slowing down, with rebar production down by 30,000 tons to 181.7 million tons, below the required level of 208 million tons [2] Demand - Seasonal demand has weakened significantly, with December demand for major steel products at 8.46 million tons, down from 8.75 million tons in November and showing a notable year-on-year decline [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil demand have both decreased, with rebar demand down by 56,000 tons to 208 million tons and hot-rolled coil demand down by 137,000 tons to 298.3 million tons [2] Inventory - Steel mills are reducing production, but inventory levels are still being managed effectively, with a total inventory reduction of 370,000 tons to 12.95 million tons [3] - Rebar inventory decreased by 270,000 tons to 4.52 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 64,000 tons to 3.91 million tons [3] Outlook - The steel market is expected to maintain production cuts and inventory reductions, with a 6.7% decline in high-level production supporting inventory management [4] - The inventory structure remains differentiated, with rebar showing good inventory reduction while hot-rolled coil inventory remains relatively high [4] - Steel prices are expected to stabilize and recover slightly due to production cuts and stable coking coal prices, but weak demand may limit upward momentum [4] - Rebar prices are projected to remain in the range of 3000-3200, while hot-rolled coil prices are expected to be between 3150-3350 [4]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with major indices showing mixed performance, indicating a "three changes in direction over three days" characteristic [1][56] - Future trading strategies are shifting from "defensive volatility and reduced elasticity" to "finding entry points and waiting for opportunities" as the market adjustment becomes more sufficient [1][58] - The report suggests a cautious approach to timing, advising against chasing prices and increasing costs, while setting "strike zones" based on previous index lows [1][58] Market Overview - Major indices showed mixed results this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai 50 rising by 0.03% and 0.32% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.28% [12][56] - The consumer sector showed signs of recovery, with significant gains in retail and consumer services, while technology-related sectors experienced adjustments [15][57] - Average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.74 trillion yuan, down from 1.94 trillion yuan the previous week [17][28] Sector Analysis - The consumer sector saw notable recovery, with retail and consumer services rising by 6.58% and 4.40% respectively, while non-bank financials increased by 2.99% [15][57] - Conversely, technology-related sectors such as electrical equipment and electronics saw declines, with drops of 3.09% and 3.02% respectively [15][57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector, which is showing signs of underperformance but expanding market share, and suggests monitoring the home appliance sector, which historically performs well in December [1][58] - Individual stocks in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and AI application sectors that are relatively low in price should be considered, along with low-performing stocks above the annual line [1][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article maintains the previous viewpoint that gold is experiencing adjustments within a strong trend, emphasizing the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels [1][3]. Market Analysis - The market showed minor changes, with fluctuations primarily occurring during the US trading session. Gold's performance was characterized by a drop to 4307 before rebounding to a new high of 4375, confirming the dual focus on bullish trends and potential adjustment spaces [3][5]. - The analysis indicates that as long as gold remains below 4355, bullish sentiment should be tempered, with attention on the support levels of 4300 and 4280 [3][5]. Technical Indicators - The current trading range for gold is identified as 4375/4250, with a smaller range of 4350/4280. The market is expected to remain within this range unless significant breakouts occur [5][6]. - The article notes that the recent high of 4375 is likely to be the peak for December, with expectations of high-level consolidation and adjustments thereafter [5][6]. Silver and Oil Outlook - Silver is also in a bullish trend but is expected to experience adjustments, with a focus on the support level of 64.5. The anticipated trading range for silver is 64.5/66.5, with potential for higher targets if the 66.5 level is breached [6]. - The outlook for crude oil remains bearish, with low-level fluctuations expected. The focus is on maintaining positions around the support level of 54.5, while short-term trades can be considered at 55.5 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - PX has a supply gap due to high polyester operation rates, and its profit hits a new high. The market is bullish, and PXN reaches a new peak [8]. - PTA's valuation continues to rise due to tight PX supply - demand on the cost side and high polyester operation rates. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range and exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread [8]. - MEG is in a range - bound market as the increase in supply cannot change the future inventory build - up pattern [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On December 18, 2025, the PX price rises. The PX - naphtha price spread reaches a new high in 2025. Higher margins may incentivize producers to increase output, but most Asian producers are cautious in the short term [3][5]. - PTA: Some PTA producers outside China are struggling to secure 2026 regular contracts. In mainland China, an Ineos 1.25 - million - ton PTA unit reduces operation and may shut down, with the PTA load at 73.2% as of Thursday [6]. - MEG: As of December 18, the overall ethylene glycol operation rate in mainland China rises to 71.97%, and the operation rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increases to 75.46% [6]. - Polyester: A filament unit of Sanfangxiang experiences a minor issue during the feeding process, delaying production. The domestic polyester load in mainland China remains around 91.2% as of Thursday [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1, indicating a neutral view [8]. Price and Margin Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rise, with PTA having the highest daily increase rate of 1.37%. MEG futures rise slightly by 0.24% [2]. - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha spot prices rise, while MEG spot price falls. The PX - naphtha spread is 282.92 dollars/ton [2]. - **Processing Margin**: The PX - naphtha spread increases by 1.5 dollars/ton, while PTA and short - fiber processing margins decrease [2].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures are experiencing high volatility, with the main contract reaching a peak of 769.5 yuan and currently trading at 769.0 yuan, reflecting a 1.38% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Jin Xin Futures maintains a broad fluctuation outlook for iron ore, citing a relaxed supply expectation due to the commissioning of the Ximangdu project, while demand remains weak, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [2] - New Century Futures identifies a strategy to seek short-selling opportunities on rebounds, emphasizing the ongoing narrative of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation," with a projected increase in global mine output by 64-65 million tons by 2026, outpacing crude steel growth [3] - Donghai Futures anticipates a short-term range-bound trading approach for iron ore, noting a decline in iron water production below 2.3 million tons and a significant drop in steel mill inventories, while global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm employment figures slightly exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate did not meet forecasts, resulting in mixed signals from the non-farm data. Gold prices initially surged to 4335 before retreating to 4290, closing the session with a doji candlestick, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish market forces [1][2]. Group 1 - The key high and low points for the week are identified as 4353 and 4257, with the outcomes at these levels likely to determine the medium-term market direction [1][2]. - The prevailing strategy is to adopt a bullish stance on gold, focusing on buying at lower levels, despite the resistance at 4353 preventing a breakout. The market remains in a strong consolidation phase as long as prices do not decline significantly [1][2]. - Short-term trading strategies are advised, with a focus on quick gains, particularly in the context of potential price fluctuations around the identified key levels [1][2]. Group 2 - An analysis of the hourly price movements shows that after a drop to 4290, gold rebounded, reaching a high of 4327 but failing to break the previous high of 4335, indicating current market pressure [1][2]. - Attention is drawn to the afternoon European trading session for potential adjustments, with support levels at 4290 and 4270 being critical for establishing long positions [1][2]. - The resistance level remains at 4353, and traders are advised not to chase prices near this level but to consider short positions if the market approaches it. A breakout above 4353 would signal a potential for further upward movement [1][2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 短期政策利好驱动有限，资金交 投热情较弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡下跌。股市全市场成交额 1.75 万亿元，较上日成交额缩量 463 亿元。 近期股市成交量能缩量，主要是因为市场驱动力量表现不足，资金交投热情回落。中央经济工作会议 延续 ...

中证1000ETF（159845）紧密跟踪中证1000指数。中证1000指数由全部A股中剔除中证800指数成分股后，规模 偏小且流动性好的1000只股票组成，综合反映中国A股市场中一批小市值公司的股票价格表现。 资金面来看，中证1000ETF（159845）近五个交易日资金净流入7.26亿元，近十个交易日净流出6.18亿元。最新 规模达457.53亿元，近一个月规模增长9.65亿元。今日盘中成交额3.92亿元，近一周日均成交高达10.79亿元，流 动性较好。 国内方面，11月PMI显示价格景气持续改善，保险新政加力支持长线资金入市。经济方面，11月制造业PMI小幅 回升，价格景气进一步上行。 平安证券表示，当前A股仍处于牛市上行中继阶段，短期或保持区间震荡格局，待12月美联储议息会议以及国内 重要经济会议落地后，市场预期有望进一步明晰。 12月9日上午，A股三大指数走势分化，其中沪指下跌0.11%。截至10:45，中证1000ETF（159845）下跌0.13%。 其他宽基指数中，上证50跌0.37%，沪深300跌0.09%，中证500跌0.26%。 个股表现来看，中证1000ETF前50只权重股中，涨幅靠前 ...