品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 28日） 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。股市全市场成交额 10241 亿元，较上日缩量 97 亿元。目前 股市成交金额稳定在 1 万亿元附近，说明目前市场情绪处于偏中性状态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]

Core Viewpoint - The international factors significantly influence the gold market, leading to frequent fluctuations in its strength and weakness, making it difficult to predict trends [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a significant drop of $50 at the opening, while silver returned to the support level around 32 [3]. - The dollar index showed an upward trend, stabilizing above 100, which may lead to further increases, potentially reaching 120 [5]. - Gold is expected to fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,400, with a strong bullish trend as long as it remains above $3,260 [5][6]. - The trading strategy should focus on effective long and short trades within key support and resistance levels, particularly around $3,260 and $3,245 [6]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - International silver prices are expected to remain strong as long as they stay above $32, with a trading range between $32 and $33.5 [6]. - Domestic silver is also experiencing minor fluctuations, maintaining a high-level oscillation, with support at 8,200 and resistance at 8,350 [7]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching a high of $61.5, and is expected to continue rising towards $64 and $66 [7]. - The domestic fuel market has also seen an increase, with prices rising to 2,675, and the strategy remains to hold long positions with targets at 2,700 and 2,800 [8].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年5月11日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 沥青市场综述 ◆ 风险提示：关税谈判推进、炼厂超预期复产复工等 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 ◆ 我们的观点：区间震荡，估值高位 ◆ 我们的逻辑：节后BU低开后持续反弹，裂解高位运行。现货方面，北方高价资源部分回落，南方低价船货小幅抬升，南 北价差略微收窄。具体来看，国内沥青总产量为49万吨，环比上周增幅1.9%；分地区来看，东北、西北及西南地区部 分中石油炼厂增产沥青，且山东地炼多有提产复产，从而带动整体供应增加。需求方面，北方高速项 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to trigger a new market trend for gold, which has been in a consolidation phase [1] - The gold market is currently experiencing a tight trading range, with significant fluctuations expected as the market prepares for a breakout [1][4] - The current support level for gold is at $3260, while resistance is seen at $3380, indicating a potential for significant price movement [4] Group 2 - Recent trading activity shows gold prices fluctuating between $3300 and $3330, with a critical support range identified between $3285 and $3275 [2] - The technical analysis indicates a downward trend with high points decreasing and low points remaining stable, suggesting a potential continuation of the current adjustment phase [4] - Traders are advised to avoid entering positions in the middle of the current trading range to minimize losses from stop-loss triggers [2]

中原证券认为，周二A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在3294点 附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡，盘中汽车零部件、机器人、互联网服务以及通用设备等行业表现较 好；电力、保险、航运港口以及贵金属等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。 4月是年报和一季报密集披露期，市场将从预期驱动转向基本面验证。预计短期市场仍以区间震荡为 主，但政策托底与经济韧性为结构性机会提供支撑。市场或延续政策与业绩双轮驱动的结构性行情，投 资者需平衡防御与成长，聚焦业绩确定性高、政策催化明确的板块，同时警惕外部风险引发的短期波 动。 东莞证券认为，周二，市场全天震荡调整，三大指数缩量微跌。海外方面，本周美国将公布3月核心 PCE和4月非农就业等重要经济数据，或将一定程度上影响美国经济预期走势及贸易谈判进程。国内方 面，五一假期将近，节前资金避险情绪有所提升，部分资金选择在短期获利离场，市场继续缩量。随着 本周财报披露季结束，叠加海外冲击逐渐减弱，A股市场将进入一个相对均衡的阶段。但另一方面，指 数目前处于相对纠结的位置，指数上方有压力，同时估值不存在超跌情况，短期缺乏热点催化，市场或 将继续 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The lead market is expected to experience range - bound fluctuations [1] Group 2: Core Data Price and Volume - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,655 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME 3M lead electronic disk was 1,902 dollars/ton, down 0.47% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 19,726 lots, an increase of 2,459 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,146 lots, an increase of 213 lots [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 30,993 lots, a decrease of 1,084 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 151,498 lots, a decrease of 5,095 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 19.94 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.97 dollars/ton [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Inventory - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 57,977 tons, a decrease of 401 tons; the LME lead inventory was 283,125 tons, an increase of 17,575 tons [1] - The LME lead cancelled warrants were 122,950 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons [1] Others - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 427.32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.88 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was - 468.27 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.87 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: News - China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year [1] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1]