Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, with the production rate falling 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November decreased by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the overall demand was weak. With the influence of factors such as crude oil price decline, it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in November was 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month (16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year - on - year (11.0%). This week, some refineries will stably produce asphalt, and the production rate will increase [1]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream industry's production rate was mixed last week. The road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - **Price**: Crude oil prices fell. The basis of asphalt in Shandong remained at a neutral level, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 1.19% to 3068 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3045 yuan/ton, the highest was 3074 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7249 to 153,792 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 38 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - **Demand - related Data**: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt supply this week decreased, with the production rate falling by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, and the expected production in November dropping by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream demand is weakening, with the overall demand remaining flat. Considering that the base price in Shandong is at a neutral level and the spot price is stable, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: The asphalt production rate this week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting a record low for this time of the year. The expected production in November is 222.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 27.4 million tons (11.0%). Next week, the production rate will rise as some refineries stabilize production [1]. - Demand: The downstream industry production rates showed mixed trends this week, with the road asphalt production rate remaining flat at 34% due to funding and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat this week, near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Price: Crude oil prices declined. The Shandong asphalt base price is at a neutral level, and the spot price is basically stable. The market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.46% to 3009 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3000 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3086 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 6145 to 166,038 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped asphalt production, causing the production rate to fall by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, hitting a record low for this time of the year [1][4]. - Demand - related investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) were - 4.3% and - 0.1% respectively, both showing a downward trend [4]. - Social financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 21, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat at 14.5% compared to the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] Group 2: Core Views - The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, but the upward driving force remains limited [1] - Crude oil prices continue in a weak and volatile state, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - The fundamental situation of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils is converging. The previously strong high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals have marginally loosened, but there are still supporting factors below [1] - Recently, the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait has tightened marginally, and the strength of overseas gasoline and diesel has also boosted the valuation of low-sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, it faces the contradiction of being substituted in marine fuel demand and has abundant surplus capacity, so it does not have the conditions to strengthen continuously [1] Group 3: Strategy - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For cross-variety: Positions with long LU-FU spreads can be appropriately taken profit [2] - For cross-period: No strategy provided [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy provided [2] - For options: No strategy provided [2] Group 4: Market Data - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,560 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.21% at 3,266 yuan/ton [1] - Multiple charts show prices, spreads, and trading volume data for Singapore and Chinese fuel oil futures and spot markets [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent weak and volatile operation of crude oil prices has put some pressure on the FU and LU futures markets. High - sulfur fuel oil is in an adjustment phase, with a decline in crack spreads, monthly spreads, and spot premiums, but there are still structural support factors. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure has marginally eased due to reduced production from Azul and Dangote refineries, and the market structure has slightly repaired [2]. - The Azul refinery's planned restart of its device on November 11 has been postponed to around December 9, and the observed Kuwaiti low - sulfur fuel oil shipments remain at zero, which provides some short - term support to the market [2]. Strategy Summary High - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish [3] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term: Neutral; Medium - term: Bearish [3] Cross -品种 Strategy - Go long on the LU2601 - FU2601 spread on dips [3] Cross - term Strategy - None [3] Spot - futures Strategy - None [3] Options Strategy - None [3] Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.45% at 2,671 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.08% at 3,262 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for crude oil shows a mixed performance, with asphalt futures experiencing a downward trend, currently trading around 3177.00 CNY/ton, with a decline of approximately 1.55% [1] - The operating load rate for asphalt production nationwide is at 31.97%, indicating a slight decrease, while demand remains weak, particularly in southern regions where no significant increase is observed [1] - Analysts suggest a short-term trading approach due to the current market's weak performance and the impact of fluctuating international oil prices [1] Group 2 - In the northern regions, there is some support for demand due to ongoing construction projects, but overall demand is expected to decline as temperatures drop in November [2] - The market is likely to prioritize the consumption of low-priced resources from social inventories, leading to a sustained weak performance in spot prices [2] - Despite a slight easing of supply pressure in November, the overall market remains under pressure, and asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, influenced by macroeconomic factors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Sanctions have raised concerns about supply, causing international oil prices to rebound strongly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, and the geopolitical situation cools down. Supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. However, the easing of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs and the disturbances of European and American sanctions on supply concerns lead to a short - term volatile and slightly stronger performance of oil prices [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - long - term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans to increase production moderately, and the overall supply situation is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - long - term)**: Different institutions have different predictions on demand, with EIA increasing the forecast, OPEC remaining unchanged, and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate forecast. Overall, it is rated as neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short - term)**: US commercial crude oil and refined product inventories have decreased, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - long - term)**: OPEC+ continues to increase production moderately, and the IEA believes that the market may shift from tight balance to slight oversupply, which is bearish [3] - **Geopolitical (Short - term)**: Sanctions on Russia by the EU, the UK, and the US may lead to a tightening of Russian oil supply and push up oil prices, which is bullish [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - term)**: The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and China and the US will hold new economic and trade consultations, which is bullish [3] - **Investment View**: Oil prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Sanctions have raised supply concerns, and international oil prices have rebounded strongly. As of October 24, WTI crude oil rose 7.32% week - on - week, Brent crude oil rose 5.84% week - on - week, and SC crude oil rose 7.47% week - on - week [6] - **Month - to - month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: Near - month spreads have strengthened, and internal - external spreads have rebounded and expanded [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads have strengthened [21] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads have declined [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. The US weekly crude oil production was 1362.9 million barrels per day, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [55][79] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories decreased, Cushing inventories decreased, Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [80][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates rose. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly [101][110] - **Refinery Profit**: The gross profit of Chinese main - refineries declined, and gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [119] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields declined slightly, and the US dollar index oscillated [131] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [140]

Core Viewpoint - Short fiber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 6180.00 yuan, with a current price of 6168.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.82% [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Short fiber production load has risen to approximately 95.4%, indicating a high level. A 250,000-ton short fiber plant in Fujian is undergoing maintenance for two weeks, affecting 1.4D cotton-type short fiber production [1] - Demand side: Sales of direct-spun polyester short fibers show a significant disparity, with an average production and sales rate of 67%. Downstream operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang show varying load rates: 81% for texturing, 69% for weaving, and 78% for dyeing. Raw material inventory levels at terminal factories are lower by 3-7 days and higher by 15-25 days [1] - Overall, the supply remains at a high level while demand is average, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation, although cost support is weak [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Influencing Factors - Southwest Futures predicts that short fiber prices will fluctuate in line with cost movements [1] - Ruida Futures anticipates that short fiber prices will follow the volatility of crude oil prices, influenced by the U.S. government's plan to replenish strategic petroleum reserves by 1 million barrels [1] - Current production of polyester short fibers in China stands at 164,900 tons, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.16%. The average operating rate in the pure polyester yarn industry is 73.35%, showing a slight increase [1] - As of October 16, the inventory levels for polyester short fiber factories in China are 6.11 days, a decrease of 1.47 days from the previous period, while physical inventory is at 13.40 days, down by 1.19 days [1]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On October 14, 2025, most futures varieties showed different trends. A - share stock indexes generally declined, while some futures like coke and焦煤 showed slight increases, and others like sugar, rubber, and palm oil were affected by various factors and showed downward or fluctuating trends [1][2][3][4]. Industry Analysis Stock Index Futures - On October 14, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99% to 2955.98 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2576.2 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4539.06, a decline of 54.91 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 14, the coke weighted index showed a weak shock, closing at 1665.5, a rise of 4.8. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1167.5 yuan, a rise of 6.5. Coke's coking profit is near the break - even point, and the demand increment is insufficient. Coking coal's supply recovery is slow, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season and other factors, the US sugar fell on Monday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell sharply on Tuesday and then had a slight rebound at night. As of the end of September, Guangxi's sugar sales volume increased, but the sales rate decreased, and the industrial inventory increased [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade relations, crude oil prices, and Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday and had a slight decline at night. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased compared with the same period in 2024 [6]. Palm Oil - On October 14, palm oil futures prices declined slightly. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November while keeping the export tariff unchanged [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 14, CBOT soybean futures were weakly volatile. Domestically, soybean meal futures were also weakly volatile. High imports of soybeans and the expected early listing of Brazilian soybeans help ease concerns about the supply shortage [8]. Live Pigs - On October 14, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but it is expected to stabilize and rebound after November, with the rebound height limited by over - capacity expectations [9]. Shanghai Copper - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and overseas copper mine supply disturbances support copper prices, but Sino - US trade disputes and weak domestic demand lead to copper price fluctuations. The inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected [9]. Iron Ore - On October 14, the iron ore 2601 contract declined. The supply is relatively loose, and there is an increasing pressure on steel mills to reduce production in the future, so the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 14, the asphalt 2511 contract declined. The production and shipment of asphalt decreased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds, so the price is in a volatile trend [10]. Logs - On October 14, log futures prices continued to decline. The spot price remained stable, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a pattern of inventory reduction [12]. Cotton - On the night of October 14, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13240 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Sino - US trade war has a certain suppressing effect on the cotton market [12]. Steel - On October 14, steel futures prices showed a general downward trend. After the holiday, steel demand is average, the inventory reduction speed may be slow, and the cost support is insufficient, so the steel price may be weakly volatile in the short term [12]. Alumina - On October 14, alumina futures closed at 2805 yuan/ton. The spot market supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to continue to decline [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 14, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20860 yuan/ton. The macro - situation is complex, and the supply is stable. The demand is improving, and the social inventory in the East China region has decreased [13].

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions that previously supported gold and silver prices have temporarily eased due to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is seen as a significant step towards ending the ongoing conflict [3] - The agreement, facilitated by the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, includes the release of hostages and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, leading to a reduction in market risk aversion and downward pressure on precious metal prices [3] - The strong rise of the US dollar index to a nine-week high, alongside a decline in oil prices and stable US 10-year Treasury yields, has further compounded the pressure on gold and silver prices [3] Group 2 - Despite a short-term technical correction in precious metals, the overall bullish trend remains intact, indicating that gold and silver are still in an accelerating "mature bull market" [4] - The recent upward momentum in gold prices reflects investor demand for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, as well as a reassessment of the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy [4] - The alternating dominance of risk appetite and risk aversion suggests that gold and silver prices may maintain a high volatility pattern, with profit-taking becoming a regular occurrence [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].