宏 观 研 究 物价数据 2025 年 09 月 10 日 为何大宗涨价拉不起 PPI？ ——通胀数据点评（25.08） 事件：9 月 10 日，国家统计局公布 8 月通胀数据，CPI 同比-0.4%、前值 0%、预期-0.2%、 环比 0%；PPI 同比-2.9%、前值-3.6%、预期-2.9%、环比 0%。 核心服务 CPI 同比在暑期出行、医疗服务改革等支撑下延续上涨，而房租 CPI 因青年就业 问题持续弱于季节性。8 月，服务 CPI 同比较前月小幅上行 0.1pct 至 0.6%。结构上，核 心服务 CPI 环比 0%、符合季节性（0%），一方面受暑期出行支撑；统计在食品中的在外 餐饮 CPI 同比上行 0.8pct 至 1.9%。另外医疗服务改革持续拉动医疗服务价格上涨，同比 +0.5pct 至 1.6%。而房租 CPI 受青年失业率较高的拖累，8 月环比 0%、不及季节性。 ⚫ 核心观点：上游涨价对 PPI 环比贡献转正，但中下游产能利用率偏低对 PPI 拖累仍较大。 统计因素的扰动消退后，8 月 PPI 边际改善，主要表现为大宗商品价格对 PPI 环比拉动明 显回升。PPI 为每月 5 日、2 ...

Core Insights - Gold and crude oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday, indicating a bullish trend in these commodities [1] - Copper prices remained stable, showing little change from the previous close, suggesting a lack of volatility in this market [1] - Silver prices experienced a significant increase of over 1%, reflecting heightened investor interest in precious metals [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - In August, the year-on-year decline of CPI exceeded expectations, and the inflation remained low. The decline of PPI narrowed. In the short term, the price center of domestic demand - type commodities is expected to move up, and the decline of PPI will gradually narrow. With the implementation of policies, CPI is expected to gradually recover and rise [3][4][5]. Group 2: Specific Data Analysis CPI - In August, CPI year - on - year growth was - 0.4%, expected - 0.2%, previous value 0%; month - on - month 0%, expected 0.1%, previous value 0.4%. The inflation decline exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the high comparison base in the same period last year and the lower - than - seasonal increase in food prices this month [3]. - Food prices decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared with last month, pulling down CPI year - on - year by about 0.51 percentage points. Non - food prices rose by 0.5%, up 0.2% from last month, pulling up CPI year - on - year by 0.43% [3]. - Core CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand for the 4th month. This month, core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage point compared with last month [3]. - Service prices rose by 0.6% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage point compared with last month, affecting CPI year - on - year increase by about 0.23 percentage points [4]. PPI - In August, PPI year - on - year growth was - 2.9%, expected - 2.9%, previous value - 3.6%. The year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with last month, the first narrowing since March this year [4]. - In the 2.9% year - on - year decline of PPI in August, the carry - over effect was about - 0.7 percentage points, and the new effect of price changes this year was about - 2.2 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Prices CPI - The high comparison base in the same period last year and the lower - than - seasonal increase in food prices led to the year - on - year decline of CPI [3]. - The continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption led to the continuous expansion of the year - on - year increase of core CPI [3]. PPI - Domestically, the continuous optimization of the market competition order, the growth of new development drivers, and the increase in upgraded consumption demand led to the narrowing of the year - on - year decline of PPI [4]. - Internationally, OPEC+ production increase and the short - term easing of the Russia - Ukraine relationship led to the overall decline of the crude oil price center; the overall increase in overseas commodity demand and the weakening of the US dollar led to the overall rebound of non - ferrous prices [3][4]. Group 4: Future Price Trends - As China gradually enters the peak season of commodity consumption, the construction of real estate and infrastructure projects will speed up, and overseas demand is improving. The demand side will be strengthened in the short term. With the deepening of anti - involution in relevant domestic industries, the price center of domestic demand - type commodities is expected to move up [3][4]. - The decline of PPI will gradually narrow, and prices are expected to gradually stabilize with the continuous manifestation of policy effects [3][4][5]. - CPI is expected to gradually recover and rise as domestic demand policies are further strengthened and implemented, and the impact of the high base in the same period last year is gradually eliminated [3][4][5].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Food prices are under dual constraints from weak downstream Producer Price Index (PPI) and overall market demand, leading to a projected year-on-year decline in CPI of 0.4% [1] - Wholesale agricultural product prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month in August, with vegetable prices rising by 8.0% due to adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -2.9% [2] - The recovery in commodity prices, along with a low base effect, may support a slight rebound in PPI, with significant increases in the prices of steel and coal observed [3] - However, the decline in international oil prices and low capacity utilization in midstream and downstream sectors may limit the extent of PPI recovery [3]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 8月生意社BPI工业原材料价格指数持平，能源价格受地缘形势缓和维持弱势，有色分项价格收涨。截 至8月31日，生意社BPI指数录得869点，相较7月末持平。其中能源、有色价格（月环比）分别为-0.2%、 1.4%。8月生意社大宗榜环比上涨、下跌的品种分别为139种、200种，其中上涨品种集中于化工（88 种）、有色（16种）。 第四， 新兴产业链价格多数收涨。 8 月光伏行业综合指数（ SPI ）环比回升 5.1% （前值 16.3% ），其 中多晶硅分项上涨 2.2% ；碳酸锂期货结算价环比回升 14.3% 。表征半导体（内存）景气度的 DXI 指数延 续强势， DXI 指数（代表 DRAM 即内存产值变化景气度）环比上涨 2.4% 。 第二， 8 月内需定价大宗商品涨跌互现。其中动力煤现货价、焦煤期货价延续强势，月环比涨幅分别为 6.6% 、 8.0% ，螺纹、玻璃期货价环比收跌，中国化工产品价格指数月环比回落 2.3% 。南华综合指数月 末值环比回落 0.6% ；月均值同比录得 3.3% （前值 - ...

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with cement dispatch volumes declining again, indicating weak demand[15] - Industrial production is at a historically high level but has marginally decreased compared to the previous two weeks[24] - Construction demand has turned negative year-on-year, with rebar and building materials demand falling to historical lows[31] Prices - Domestic industrial prices are fluctuating weakly due to limited demand-side support, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining[45] - International commodity prices are volatile, with gold prices showing a strong upward trend amid expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[42] Real Estate - New housing transactions have seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a 33% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks[63] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing year-on-year changes of -3%, +17%, and +19% respectively[68] Exports - August exports are expected to grow by approximately 5% to 7%, with a model indicating a 5.5% increase[71] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with the R007 and DR007 both at 1.52% as of August 31[76] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 13,759 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[78]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conditions required for the Producer Price Index (PPI) to turn positive, emphasizing the need for significant increases in commodity prices, particularly in the context of current economic conditions and historical precedents [3][4][9]. Summary by Sections Commodity Price Trends - Since July, major commodities have experienced a slight decline after a peak, with coal and black metals rising by 13.8% and 3.9% respectively by mid-August [3]. - The PPI is expected to show a year-on-year increase in August due to a low base last year, but it remains in negative territory for 34 consecutive months [3]. PPI Composition and Impact - The PPI consists of various components, with black metals, non-ferrous metals, crude oil, coal, and other goods contributing 13.6%, 7.3%, 16.7%, 9.3%, and 53.2% respectively [5]. - In the first seven months of 2025, crude oil, black metals, coal, and other goods negatively impacted the PPI by 1, 0.9, 0.5, and 0.9 percentage points, while non-ferrous metals contributed positively by 0.4 percentage points [5]. Price Requirements for PPI to Turn Positive - For the PPI to turn positive by the end of the year, the average month-on-month PPI from August to December needs to reach 0.43%, which is similar to levels seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [8]. - Corresponding to this, prices for rebar, non-caking coal, copper, and crude oil need to increase by 11% from July levels, reaching 3580 CNY, 940 CNY, 88000 CNY, and 79 USD respectively [8]. - If crude oil and copper prices remain stable, rebar and non-caking coal prices would need to rise by approximately 20% from July averages to achieve a positive PPI [8]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical examples show that significant price increases in commodities often require external factors, such as the 198% rise in non-caking coal prices in 2021 due to energy-saving measures [9]. - A more realistic scenario for PPI turning positive may occur in Q2 of next year, where a 4% increase in prices from July levels would suffice [9]. - However, after Q2 of next year, the low base effect will diminish, necessitating further conditions for PPI positivity, especially if crude oil prices continue to decline [9][11]. Demand Considerations - The analysis assumes that upstream price increases can be effectively transmitted to downstream sectors, which is contingent on sufficient demand [10]. - Weak demand, particularly in the real estate sector, has historically hindered price transmission, preventing the PPI from turning positive despite rising upstream prices [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - If PPI is to turn positive by the end of this year, the average monthly PPI MoM from August to December needs to reach 0.43%, similar to the average during the 2016 supply - side reform. Commodity prices need to rise significantly, with rebar, anthracite, copper, and crude oil prices needing to increase by 11% from July levels [2][8]. - Given that crude oil and copper are globally - priced commodities and crude oil prices have been weakening, domestic - priced commodities like rebar and coal need to rise more for PPI to turn positive by the end of the year. For example, if oil and copper prices remain flat, rebar and anthracite need to rise about 20% from July averages [8]. - A more realistic scenario is for PPI to approach positive growth in Q2 next year. With a low - base effect, rebar, anthracite, copper, and crude oil prices only need to rise about 4% from July this year to drive PPI to turn positive [9]. - PPI turning positive depends on demand. Weak demand can block price transmission, requiring larger price increases in upstream commodities for PPI to turn positive [12]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Current Commodity Price Situation - Since July, commodities first rose and then slightly declined. As of mid - August, coal and ferrous metals rose 13.8% and 3.9% MoM respectively compared to mid - July, leading the increase among major commodities [4]. - Due to a low base last year, the PPI YoY in August is expected to rebound but will still remain in negative territory for the 34th consecutive month [4]. PPI Composition and Impact Factors - In the PPI composition, the weights of ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, crude oil, coal, and other commodities are 13.6%, 7.3%, 16.7%, 9.3%, and 53.2% respectively. From January to July 2025, crude oil, ferrous metals, coal, and other commodities dragged down PPI by 1, 0.9, 0.5, and 0.9 percentage points respectively, while non - ferrous metals boosted PPI by 0.4 percentage points [4]. Representative Commodities for PPI - The spot prices of rebar, anthracite, copper, and Brent crude oil are selected as representative commodities for ferrous, coal, non - ferrous, and crude oil PPI, with correlation coefficients of 81%, 93%, 75%, and 96% respectively [5]. Historical Examples of Commodity Price Increases - In 2021, "sports - style" energy conservation and emission reduction drove coal prices up. In October 2021, anthracite prices rose 198% compared to April, driving the PPI YoY of the coal mining and washing industry from 13% to 103.7% in October [8]. - From 2016 - 2017, the supply - side reform drove up ferrous metal prices. At the end of 2016, rebar and wire rod prices rose 82% and 91% compared to the end of 2015, driving the PPI YoY of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry up by 35% at the end of 2016 [9]. Commodity Price Requirements for PPI to Turn Positive | Time | Rebar | Anthracite | Copper | Crude Oil | Average Commodity Price Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July Average | 3213 yuan/ton | 844 yuan/ton | 78644 yuan/ton | 71 dollars/ton | - | | Q4 2025 | 3580 yuan/ton | 940 yuan/ton | 87609 yuan/ton | 79 dollars/ton | 11% | | Q1 2026 | 3519 yuan/ton | 924 yuan/ton | 86115 yuan/ton | 78 dollars/ton | 10% | | Q2 2026 | 3342 yuan/ton | 877 yuan/ton | 81789 yuan/ton | 74 dollars/ton | 4% | [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. interest rates and the potential benefits and risks of interest rate cuts, particularly in the context of Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and its chairman Powell [1][3][11]. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rates and Economic Impact - Trump has been vocal about the need for lower interest rates, arguing that current rates are too high and impose significant economic costs, estimating a $360 billion annual cost for each percentage point of high interest rates [5][7]. - High interest rates lead to reduced borrowing and spending, which can result in job losses and lower economic growth, as evidenced by the disappointing non-farm payroll data [8][10]. - Lowering interest rates could stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper, which is crucial for consumer spending and business expansion [7][11]. Group 2: Global Trade and Currency Dynamics - A reduction in interest rates could weaken the dollar, making U.S. exports more competitive while also mitigating the impact of tariffs on consumers [10][11]. - However, a weaker dollar could also lead to a stronger yuan, potentially harming China's export competitiveness and accelerating the shift of low-end manufacturing to Southeast Asia [21][23]. Group 3: Opportunities and Risks for Emerging Markets - Historically, U.S. rate cuts have led to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, which could benefit markets like China's A-shares [19]. - The influx of capital could also create asset bubbles and financial volatility, particularly in sectors like technology [21][24]. - To mitigate risks, China could enhance its import reserves and support high-tech industries while upgrading its manufacturing capabilities to counteract the effects of a weaker dollar [23][24].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on commodity prices, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips for commodities like copper, aluminum, and gold [1][14] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the effects of rate cuts on commodity prices, with some believing that rate cuts indicate economic slowdown while others argue that they can stimulate economic growth and liquidity, thus supporting commodity prices [1][3] - Historical data shows that during past rate cut cycles, commodity prices often rebound after initial declines, particularly in the context of economic recovery following rate cuts [2][3] Group 2 - Since 1982, the U.S. has experienced multiple rate cut cycles, with the current cycle beginning in September 2022, resulting in a total reduction of 100 basis points [2] - The article highlights that rate cuts are typically implemented during significant economic downturns, and the pace of cuts tends to be more aggressive compared to rate hikes [2][3] - The relationship between economic performance and commodity prices is emphasized, indicating that global economic growth is a key determinant of commodity price trends [4] Group 3 - Different commodities exhibit varying sensitivities to interest rate changes, with gold being highly sensitive to real interest rates, copper reflecting economic growth expectations, and oil being influenced by both demand and supply factors [5][6] - Statistical data supports the notion that metals and industrial raw materials are more sensitive to interest rate changes compared to agricultural commodities [6] Group 4 - The article outlines the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, noting that inflation and employment data will significantly influence future rate decisions [9][11] - The current economic environment suggests a potential for further rate cuts, with market expectations indicating a possible reduction in the federal funds rate to between 3.3% and 3.5% in the near future [13][14] - The necessity for rate cuts is underscored by a weakening labor market and declining inflation, which may lead to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to adjust its policies [14]