Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive growth in tax revenue, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase in the third quarter, driven by economic recovery and favorable policies [1][3] - The capital market service sector saw a significant tax revenue increase of 56.8% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [2] - The manufacturing sector's tax revenue grew by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, indicating its crucial role in overall economic stability [2] Group 2 - Real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed due to ongoing supportive policies, with a reduction of over 10 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The implementation of a series of incremental policies has led to a steady recovery in invoice sales and tax revenue growth, reflecting improved corporate profitability and consumer activity [3] - The stock market's active trading environment contributed to the increase in tax revenue, with the total market capitalization of A-share companies surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time in August [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's tax revenue and invoice sales are showing steady recovery, reflecting a positive economic trend supported by various policies [1][2][3] - Tax revenue from the capital market has maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8% in capital market service tax, and a significant rise of 110.5% in securities transaction stamp duty [3] - The real estate sector has seen a narrowing decline in tax revenue, attributed to effective policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with nearly 800 billion RMB in new tax reductions implemented this year [3] Group 2 - Major industries and tax categories are experiencing stable growth, with manufacturing tax revenue increasing by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue [2] - Domestic value-added tax has grown by 3.2%, indicating improved business conditions, while corporate income tax has risen by 4.1%, reflecting better profitability in certain sectors [2] - The consumer market is showing signs of vitality, with significant increases in retail sales of household appliances, such as a 55.4% rise in refrigerator sales and a 35.3% increase in television sales [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady recovery of VAT invoice sales and tax revenue growth, reflecting an improving economic environment driven by a series of policies implemented by the central government [1][5] - From Q3 of last year to Q3 of this year, the quarterly sales revenue growth rates for enterprises were 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4%, indicating a consistent upward trend [1] - Tax revenue has shown a positive turnaround after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase in tax revenue since February, reflecting improved fiscal collection capabilities [1] Group 2 - Capital market-related tax revenues have maintained a high growth rate, indicating active stock market trading, with a 56.8% year-on-year increase in capital market service tax revenue and a 110.5% increase in securities transaction stamp duty [2] - The total market capitalization of A-share companies surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time in August, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in September [2] Group 3 - Major industries and tax categories have shown stable growth, with manufacturing tax revenue increasing by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, and high-end manufacturing sectors like aerospace and transportation equipment seeing a 31.5% increase [3] - The domestic VAT grew by 3.2%, and corporate income tax increased by 4.1%, reflecting improved profitability among certain industries [3] Group 4 - The decline in real estate-related tax revenue has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4] - The implementation of consumption policies has spurred a significant increase in the purchase of machinery and household appliances, with a 9.7% increase in machinery equipment purchases and a 55.4% increase in retail sales of refrigerators [4] Group 5 - The article emphasizes that the series of incremental policies introduced on September 26 last year are a targeted response to economic challenges, focusing on stimulating consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and activating the capital market [5] - Tax data serves as a clear indicator of the effectiveness of these policies, showing a steady recovery in economic activity and corporate profitability [5]

Core Insights - The implementation of a series of incremental and stock policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue, indicating a positive trend in China's economy [1][2][6] Group 1: Tax Revenue and Economic Indicators - The growth rate of value-added tax invoice sales and tax revenue has shown a steady recovery, reflecting an improving economic operation. From Q3 of last year to Q3 of this year, the quarterly sales revenue growth rates for enterprises were 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4% respectively [2] - Tax revenue has turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase in tax revenue since February this year, showing month-on-month improvement [2] - In Q3, particularly in September, tax revenue growth was notably high, influenced by a narrowing decline in PPI and a low base from the previous year [2] Group 2: Capital Market Performance - Tax revenue related to the capital market has maintained a high growth rate, reflecting active stock market trading. In August, the total market value of A-share companies surpassed 100 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in September [3] - The tax revenue from capital market services increased by 56.8% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [3] - Personal income tax related to stock transfers and dividends also saw significant increases, contributing to a 9.3% year-on-year growth in personal income tax [3] Group 3: Industry and Sector Performance - Major industries and tax categories have shown stable growth, indicating improved business operations and profitability. The manufacturing sector's tax revenue grew by 5.4% year-on-year, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue [4] - High-end manufacturing sectors, such as railway and aerospace, experienced tax revenue growth of 31.5%, while emerging industries like information technology services saw tax revenue increases of 15.3% [4] - Domestic value-added tax grew by 3.2% year-on-year, and corporate income tax increased by 4.1%, reflecting improved profitability in certain sectors [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The decline in tax revenue related to the real estate sector has narrowed, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market. The tax revenue from the real estate sector decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, but the decline was less than 5% when accounting for tax incentives [5] - The government has implemented tax reduction measures totaling nearly 80 billion yuan to lower housing transaction costs, contributing to market stabilization [5] Group 5: Consumer Activity and Equipment Upgrades - Nationwide enterprise equipment upgrades have accelerated, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods. The procurement of machinery and equipment by enterprises increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing seeing an 11.8% increase [5] - Retail sales of household appliances, such as refrigerators and televisions, experienced significant growth, with increases of 55.4% and 35.3% respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodities futures mostly closed higher, with the crude oil sector generally rising [1]. - Overseas commodity demand is experiencing a short - term weak recovery, housing prices are weakly stable, and job vacancies are lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and earnings reports. The US tariff policies may be implemented, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - The tone of the domestic policy meeting is in line with expectations, focusing on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. Policies will be more flexible and forward - looking. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries, and domestic demand is stable with resilient exports [7]. - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A weak US dollar pattern persists in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US May FHFA housing price index monthly rate was - 0.2%. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level. US June JOLTs job vacancies were 7.437 million, lower than expected. US tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Politburo meeting's policy tone is in line with expectations, emphasizing using existing policies effectively. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are resilient [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, pay attention to multiple risks. Maintain strategic allocations to resources like gold and copper [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the strengthening of the technology - growth sector. Index options may experience volatile movements. Treasury bond futures will be affected by the Politburo meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase, affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment of the shipping industry has declined. The focus is on the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate of container shipping to Europe [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The trend of black building materials has reversed. Most varieties are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as production, cost, and policy [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to receive support from the upcoming stable - growth plan. Most non - ferrous metal prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is increasing. Most chemical products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. Some products like asphalt and high/low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline [10]. - **Agriculture**: Cotton prices have declined, and the month - spread has decreased. Most agricultural products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fiscal situation in China for April 2025, focusing on government spending, revenue, and infrastructure investment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **Fiscal Spending Growth**: In April 2025, fiscal spending growth accelerated, primarily due to government debt financing support. The issuance of central ordinary and special government bonds has increased, with local governments shifting focus towards project investments, especially in infrastructure [3][5][8]. - **Local Government Investment**: Local governments have actively engaged in infrastructure investments through special bonds, with significant increases in government fund budget expenditures corresponding to local infrastructure investments. Social welfare-related expenditures have also risen, indicating increased pressure to maintain employment [5][6]. - **Revenue Improvement**: There was a marginal improvement in fiscal revenue in April 2025, although it remained in negative growth territory overall. Corporate income tax and export-related taxes provided some support, with corporate income tax improvements likely linked to corporate profit growth [6][9]. - **Structural Changes in Public Finance**: Public finance expenditures have shown structural changes, with a slight recovery in transportation spending and a decline in agricultural and forestry-related expenditures. This indicates a more proactive approach by local governments towards infrastructure investments [7][8]. - **Land Sale Revenue**: Land sale revenue growth remained negative in the first quarter of 2025, but micro-level data showed a recovery in land transaction prices across 330 cities. Fiscal confirmation of revenue lagged behind, only showing improvement in April [10]. - **Future Policy Outlook**: The future policy outlook suggests a preference for utilizing existing policies before considering any new measures. The second quarter will see continued acceleration in the implementation of existing policies, with potential new policies dependent on external pressures and upcoming political meetings [4][11][12]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Export Tax Revenue**: The first quarter of 2025 saw historically low export-related tax revenues, primarily due to high export tax rebates. This situation is linked to the "rush to export" phenomenon [9]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: The upcoming political meetings in July and August will be critical in determining whether additional fiscal measures will be introduced, especially if export growth approaches zero [13].

价格是市场经济中很重要的信号，企业看到价格上升才会生产或扩大生产。那么为什么有企业愿意"以价换量"，降价也要生产呢？微观经济学中有个和宏 观领域相似的场景：面对产品售价持续走低，企业非但不缩减生产，反而选择"逆周期扩产"。这种看似矛盾的行为背后，暗含精密的成本核算逻辑。一些 很"卷"的企业甚至会一边降价，一边扩大生产。此时企业的经营目标已不是"利润最大化"，而是"亏损最小化"。经济运行中，很多工业和制造业部门的企 业都有"以价换量"的共同特征，即通过价格调整策略换取市场份额。这种行为虽能维系企业生存，但持续的价格下行可能会削弱市场信心。 回望日本经济史，1990年房地产市场的剧烈调整之后，实际GDP表现稳定但GDP平减指数持续下行，这种经济指标的"剪刀差"将决策者推向两难境地：当 实际GDP达标与价格持续低迷同时存在，政策该何去何从？面对这种特殊的经济形态，可能会有两种解决办法。一种观点是维持现有政策力度，守住实际 GDP就是守住经济基本盘；另一种观点是必须重视名义GDP收缩的现实，主张采取更积极的刺激政策。 当年日本在房地产调整后的前十年，日本央行尚未建立明确的价格调控机制。只要实际GDP保持正增长，便视为 ...

首先，"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，意味着"攘外"和"安内"紧密联系，存量政策要用（兜住 对内底线）、增量政策要等（取决于外交成果）；其次，"办好自己的事"永远不会错，"以高质量发展 的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"；最后，针对外部环境的不利影响，会议既强调底线思 维，也做了诸多部署，为下一阶段的政策方向给出指引。 一、会议部署的核心脉络 按照逻辑脉络展开，二季度将是"外交密集期+存量加速期+经济观察期+增量储备期"。 外交是头等大事，存量政策要用，增量政策要等。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛、赵宏鹤 4月政治局会议通稿的脉络非常清晰，充分展现了高层对当前形势的冷静判断和应对方略。 大规模增量政策的储备和推出需要观察和时间，或要等到年中附近，一些既定和有针对性的增量政策有 望更早出现。 外交密集期。 外交是当前的头等大事，是降低外部风险、化不确定性为确定性的治本之策。 会议强 调"同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸凌行径"，4月9日召开的首次中央周边工作会议 明确要"聚焦构建周边命运共同体"。 对美外交，我们已经展现过诚意，外交部发言人近期表示"打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开"；对非美国 家外交，我 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 陶川 邵翔 张云杰 钟渝梅 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 4月政治局会议的关键点，聚焦在"底线"和"预案"。风急浪高的外部形势更加考验政策层对 于政策节奏和力度的把握，说到底"经贸斗争"比拼的是韧性和耐力，以及随机应变的"后手 棋"，因此政策布局呈现明显的"两步走"特征： "底线"要稳、要兜牢，重点在存量政策加 速，保民生、稳就业、帮企业、化风险；"预案"要足、要"求进"，新工具、新政策、新模 式蓄势待发。 具体看来以下五大信号值得重点关注： 第一，在"经贸斗争"中比拼韧性和耐力。 这是政治局会议中首次提到"经贸斗争"四个字， 早期二十大报告中便强调过要"敢于斗争、善于斗争"，"敢于斗争"比的是耐力和底气，"善 于斗争"比的是制度自信。与2018年的首轮经贸冲突不一样的是，如今的中国能更好地用自 身的确定性去应对外部的不确定性，这从近期美国贸易不确定性指数远远高于中国就得以凸 显。 第二，政策分为"两步走"：第一步看存量政策，"要 ...