Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a short - line positive outlook due to increased risk - aversion as the macro - environment weakens [1][3]. - Copper is recommended for long - term investment, with a positive long - line view. It is expected to be in a strong state in the medium - term, influenced by macro - easing, mine production cuts, and the implementation of interest rate cuts [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last week, the price of New York gold rose from $4200 at the beginning of the week to $4300 at the weekend. After the Fed's December FOMC meeting, the market first rose and then fell, and the gold price showed a clear upward trend [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and restart the expansion of the balance sheet in the December FOMC meeting boosted the gold price. The sharp decline in the macro - environment on Friday night increased short - term risk - aversion [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, New York gold has broken through $4300 with strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the support at the $4300 level [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, the copper price rose again after a mid - week correction. Although it dropped sharply on Friday night, the overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices remained unchanged [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Before the Fed's FOMC meeting, strong profit - taking led to a short - term decline in the copper price. After the meeting, the copper price increased positions and rose again. On the industrial level, high copper prices have suppressed market consumption sentiment, but macro - factors dominate [5]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the copper price fluctuates with the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5].

Group 1: Copper - Copper prices showed a weak fluctuation overnight, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiate short-term U.S. Treasury purchases [3][10] - The LME copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 164,975 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,922 tons to 403,852 tons [10] - The overall outlook for copper prices is cautiously optimistic, supported by fundamentals (inventory) and macroeconomic conditions [10] Group 2: Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel prices fell by 0.51% to $14,675 per ton, while SHFE nickel prices dropped by 0.72% to 116,100 yuan per ton [4][11] - LME nickel inventory increased by 564 tons to 253,092 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 126 tons to 34,235 tons [11] - The nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain shows a slight increase in nickel-iron prices, but the price ceiling remains limited [11] Group 3: Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,509 yuan per ton, up 0.2% [6][12] - SHFE aluminum prices increased to 21,960 yuan per ton, with a 0.18% rise, while aluminum alloy prices rose by 0.64% to 20,981 yuan per ton [6][12] - The supply of alumina remains high, leading to continuous inventory pressure, while aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and copper price movements [6][13] Group 4: Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 8,250 yuan per ton, down 2.19% [7][14] - Polysilicon prices increased slightly, with the main contract closing at 55,915 yuan per ton, up 1.62% [14] - The photovoltaic industry continues to experience high inventory levels and a downward price trend, with industrial silicon production reductions not meeting the decline in downstream demand [14] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 2.56% to 95,980 yuan per ton, while the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 50 yuan to 92,700 yuan per ton [8][15] - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 120 tons [15] - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,336 tons to 113,602 tons, but demand is showing signs of weakening, which may affect the pace of inventory reduction [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The black series continues the resonance decline under the negative feedback pattern, and the disk is still under pressure in the short term. After a significant adjustment, the volatility may intensify. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro policies [1]. - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose. There are short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. In the medium and long term, as supply and demand gradually become surplus, the overall trend is under downward pressure [2]. - The coke and coking coal prices may be mainly in a weak shock. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [3][5]. - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are mainly in a shock. The silicon manganese inventory is slowly increasing, and the ferrosilicon supply is decreasing and the inventory is slightly decreasing. Attention should be paid to the bottom support strength [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk declined. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased month-on-month, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory slowly declined. The hot metal output continued to decline, and the supply pressure gradually eased. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the steel mill profits were still poor. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the later stage is relatively large. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the infrastructure growth rate continued to decline, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. The steel exports remained high in November [1]. Iron Ore - Today's trend was weak. On the supply side, the global shipment increased month-on-month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month, slightly lower than the same period last year. The port inventory continued to accumulate and approached the annual high. On the demand side, the terminal demand was at a low level in the off-season, the steel mill profitability was poor, and the hot metal production continued to decrease last week. It is expected to maintain the seasonal production reduction trend in the future, but the decline rate will slow down. The overseas interest rate cut expectation has increased, and an important domestic meeting is about to be held, and the overall macro atmosphere is warm [2]. Coke - The intraday price was in a weak shock. The market still has expectations for the second round of coke price cuts. The coking profit is average, and the daily output has slightly increased. The coke inventory has slightly decreased, and currently, downstream customers purchase on demand in small quantities, and the inventory change is not large. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mill profits are average. The steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [3]. Coking Coal - The intraday price was in a weak shock. The coking coal mine output decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were average, and the transaction prices mainly decreased. The terminal inventory decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production end inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal is seasonally declining, and the steel mill profits are average. The steel mills have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [5]. Silicon Manganese - The intraday price was mainly in a shock. Driven by the disk rebound, the manganese ore spot price has increased. The Comilog quotation has increased slightly month-on-month, and it is reported that the offer volume has decreased month-on-month. Currently, there is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore will probably increase. The hot metal output is seasonally decreasing, the weekly silicon manganese output has decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory is slowly increasing [6]. Ferrosilicon - The intraday price was mainly in a shock. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the hot metal output has rebounded to a high level. The export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The metal magnesium output has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand is still resilient. The ferrosilicon supply has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, same as iron ore [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★☆, indicating a clear bearish trend and the market is developing [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure. With the decline of hot metal production, the furnace materials are under pressure in the negative feedback pattern. The steel market is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the subsequent policy changes need to be monitored [2] - The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a downward pressure on the overall trend [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the seasonal decline of hot metal. The demand for raw materials has some resilience, but the steel mills have a strong willingness to reduce prices. The prices are likely to be weak and oscillating [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have complex supply - demand situations. The silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating, and the silicon iron supply is decreasing with a small decline in inventory. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures market continued to fall. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production dropped significantly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly with pressure to be relieved [2] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The hot metal production continued to decline, the supply pressure was gradually relieved, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient, and the steel mills' profits were still poor. The real estate investment continued to decline sharply, the infrastructure growth rate continued to fall, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and the domestic demand was generally weak. The steel exports remained at a high level in November [2] - **Price Trend**: The steel prices were mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the subsequent policy changes needed to be monitored [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased compared with the previous period, much stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and non - mainstream countries increased significantly, and the shipment from Brazil decreased from the high level but was still stronger than last year. The domestic arrival volume continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [3] - **Demand**: The terminal demand was at a low level in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability was poor. The hot metal production continued to decrease last week [3] - **Price Trend**: The iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. There were short - term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. In the medium - to - long - term, with the gradual oversupply, there was a downward pressure on the overall trend [3] Coke - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated downward. The market still expected the second round of price cuts for coke. The coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly [4] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The coke inventory decreased slightly. The downstream purchased in small quantities as needed, and the inventory changed little. The traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the downstream hot metal decreased seasonally [4] - **Price Trend**: The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to be weak and oscillating [4] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were average, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [6] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The terminal inventory decreased slightly, the total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the downstream hot metal decreased seasonally [6] - **Price Trend**: The coking coal futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be weak and oscillating [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. The Comilog quotation increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the reported volume decreased [7] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: There was a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance was relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursued the most cost - effective option and changed the manganese ore formula. The hot metal production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [7] - **Price Trend**: The bottom - support strength needed to be observed [7] Silicon Iron - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated. The market's expectation for coal mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power cost and semi - coke price [8] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The hot metal production rebounded to a high level. The export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still had some resilience. The silicon iron supply decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Price Trend**: The bottom - support strength needed to be observed [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be under pressure and move weakly in a fluctuating manner. The price may test the previous low support. For nickel trading, the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the unilateral market and sell out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level in the options market. For stainless steel, it is also expected to move weakly in a fluctuating manner, with the strategy of selling on rebounds in the unilateral market and taking a wait - and - see approach in the arbitrage market [5][6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level. LME inventory is 250,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,002 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 37,000 tons, and domestic delivery volume has increased. SMM's six - region social inventory is 49,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,029 tons month - on - month [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Stainless steel social inventory continues to decline. The destocking speed has slowed down, and the price is under pressure [9][18]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Refined Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel output from January to October increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel output in November will remain at a high level of 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 51,100 tons, compared with a net export of 19,700 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to September 2025 was 351,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 58.3% [25]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electroplating and alloy with refined nickel is stable. The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to October increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will also be obvious. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel in October fell below the 50 boom - bust line, with all sub - items below 50 [26][29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials and Supply - Demand - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Due to the rainy season and typhoons in the Philippines, nickel mines have a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the overall high - nickel iron market is weak, and the ability to absorb nickel ore is limited, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat, and the first - round domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased slightly month - on - month, with the full price remaining stable [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI has increased, and the price is under pressure. The profit margin of Chinese NPI has shown certain fluctuations [32][33]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have been continuously weakening. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in November 2025 was 8,495 yuan/50 base tons (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan [39][40]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The estimated cold - rolled cash cost is about 13,250 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 12,750 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply**: It is estimated that the output of Chinese and Indian stainless - steel crude steel from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output of both China and India increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The output of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 2.3 New Energy - Related Markets - **New Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic Market**: In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new energy passenger - vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44.5% to 985.5 GWh from January to October, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2% in November [60]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The cumulative output of nickel sulfate in China from January to October decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary precursors from January to October decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary cathode materials from January to October increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices affected by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the growth of precursor output was less than expected [67]. - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: The cumulative output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons. The output of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to October decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The cost of MHP has increased, and the price has remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 2.4 Pure Nickel Import and Supply - Demand Balance The large increase in pure nickel imports has led to an obvious domestic surplus [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2512 are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday trends being oscillatory and mid - term trends being oscillatory and weakening [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.68% to 15,550 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5] - **Core Logic**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, and the China - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals. The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Seoul may convey positive expectations. The better - than - expected new car production and sales data in September supported the industrial factors and boosted the confidence of long - positions in the rubber market [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 1.41% to 10,795 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [7] - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continues to increase. In 2025, the domestic butadiene production capacity is planned to increase by 980,000 tons, with the total capacity expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment is cautious. The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents may convey positive expectations [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - atmosphere has improved. Fed Chairman Powell signaled dovishness at the Jackson Hole Symposium, boosting the expectation of a September interest rate cut and commodity prices. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and approaching military parade also contribute to an optimistic market atmosphere. - For steel products, the weekly production of rebar decreased while demand increased, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. The production and demand of hot - rolled coils both increased, and the inventory continued to rise slightly. The overall off - season inventory accumulation is within expectations, and as the off - season turns to the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the supply - demand structure of finished products is expected to improve. With the strong raw material end, the cost support has shifted upwards. It is expected that steel prices will have a phased upward trend after the previous correction and should be treated with a bullish bias. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil has increased slightly, and the arrival volume has slightly declined. The supply pressure is not significant. Pig iron production remains at a high level. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not prominent. Considering the relatively warm macro - atmosphere and the expectation of improved terminal demand, iron ore prices are expected to remain firm in the short term and fluctuate with a bullish bias on a weekly basis. - For coking coal and coke, the coal mine production has slightly increased, and the inventory pressure is not obvious. The seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises has recovered, with a slight increase in production. With the current warm macro - atmosphere and the expectation of improved terminal demand, coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain firm and fluctuate with a bullish bias on a weekly basis. [3][4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Market Review - The industry is still in the off - season inventory accumulation stage. Rebar production decreased while demand increased, and the inventory increase slowed down. Hot - rolled coil production and demand both increased, with a slight continuous inventory increase. The raw material end showed signs of pressure at high levels, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood. Steel prices were weakly adjusted in a volatile manner, with futures prices falling more than spot prices, and the basis widened. [9] 02 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The weekly production of national rebar was 214.65 tons (down 2.63% month - on - month and up 33.66% year - on - year), and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and up 4.82% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace rebar production decreased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates also decreased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both shrank. [15][17][28] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 1.948 million tons (up 2.56% month - on - month and down 10.79% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.2127 million tons (up 2.07% month - on - month and up 0.84% year - on - year). [35][37] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory accumulation slowed down, with both social and factory inventories increasing. The total rebar inventory was 6.0704 million tons (up 3.38% month - on - month and down 6.87% year - on - year). The hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly, with social inventory rising and factory inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.6144 million tons (up 1.11% month - on - month and down 18.27% year - on - year). [41][46] - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.33% month - on - month and decreased by 14.85% year - on - year, while the land market remained sluggish. In July 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, down 7.3% and 10.7% month - on - month and up 13.3% and 14.7% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, up 12.7% and 12% year - on - year. [49][52] 03 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.85 (up 0.04% month - on - month and up 0.47% year - on - year). The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 26.927 million tons (up 0.86% month - on - month and up 3.16% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.933 million tons (down 3.36% month - on - month and down 6.76% year - on - year). [59] - **Demand**: Pig iron daily production was 2.4075 million tons (up 0.09 million tons month - on - month and up 16.29 million tons year - on - year). The port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.2574 million tons (down 2.67% month - on - month and up 7.64% year - on - year). [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 138.452 million tons (up 0.19% month - on - month and down 9.93% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.6547 million tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year). [70] 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.21% (up 1.77% month - on - month and down 6.34% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 153,500 tons (down 7.03% month - on - month and down 10.33% year - on - year). [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.05% (down 6.46% week - on - week and up 7.30% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 73.64% (down 10.28% week - on - week and up 28.36% year - on - year). [79] - **Coke Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was + 23 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 60 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 74.42% (up 0.11% month - on - month and up 3.16% year - on - year). [86] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 8.2371 million tons (down 0.68% month - on - month and up 26.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 2.6149 million tons (up 2.35% month - on - month and down 26.42% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 394,700 tons (up 0.41% month - on - month and down 15.82% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 2.1462 million tons (down 0.23% month - on - month and up 12.24% year - on - year). [92][98] - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week and down 230 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,440 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year). [104] 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread contracted at a high level. [106][112]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish outlook due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overall global macro warming, despite support from the weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term, with a short - term bullish outlook as the positive macro environment from the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks outweighs the slightly negative industry situation during the off - season [1][5] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term view: Decline [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a weak bias [1] - Core logic: The US economy underperformed expectations in July, with CPI lower than expected, leading to rising Fed rate - cut expectations. The US dollar index fell below 98, supporting the gold price. However, the overall global macro warming exerts pressure on the gold price. Technically, focus on the 3400 mark of New York gold for the battle between bulls and bears [3] Copper - Short - term view: Rise [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a strong bias [1] - Core logic: The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, created a positive macro environment. Although it is the industry off - season with a slight increase in inventory, the positive macro factors are expected to drive the copper price to run strongly. Technically, focus on the technical support at the 79,000 mark [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The macro atmosphere remains strongly positive, with the black series commodities and ferrosilicon reaching their daily limit on the 22nd. Driven by the optimistic sentiment, the aluminum industry chain continues to be strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly by over 6%, reaching a new high for the year, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. Currently in the traditional off-season, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The overall fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro atmosphere drives the aluminum industry chain to remain strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum has risen by 0.75% to 20,900 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index has increased by 19,572 to 694,390 lots. The premium between the 08 and 09 contracts has narrowed by 5 to 25, and the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -490. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The start-up rate of the aluminum processing sector remains low, and the high absolute price of aluminum is expected to have a negative impact on terminal consumption. The average profit of aluminum smelting remains at a high level of over 4,200 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] 2. Industry News - China's primary aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Due to the start of the second-phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production of the original plant was reduced, resulting in a slight month-on-month decrease in production. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the second-phase replacement project in Yunnan has been put into operation, leading to a recovery in the industry's start-up rate [9][10] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market. Local governments are required to take responsibility, make full use of their autonomy in real estate regulation policies, and implement targeted measures to stabilize the market [10] - Alcoa has announced that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain has been postponed to mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was originally in progress but was delayed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain in April. After reviewing the government's report on the power outage and receiving commitments on grid reliability and energy competitiveness, the joint venture has decided to resume the restart project [10]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment has improved, leading to an overall increase in rubber futures, although short-term weather disruptions are hindering rubber production and there is a slight decline in downstream tire demand, limiting the rebound potential for rubber prices [1] Group 1 - All rubber futures have risen due to improved macroeconomic conditions [1] - Short-term weather disturbances are affecting rubber production [1] - Downstream tire demand has slightly decreased [1] - The rebound potential for rubber prices is considered limited [1]