Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in cryptocurrency assets was primarily driven by panic stemming from policy uncertainty, but the passing of a funding bill in the House has alleviated some pressure on government operations and provided a boost to the struggling digital asset market [1][2][3] Market Recovery - Bitcoin reached a low of $72,800, marking a new low since the end of 2024, which triggered significant forced liquidations of leveraged positions. Although the price has since recovered to above $74,800, the market has not fully emerged from the gloom, particularly with Ethereum experiencing a 26% drop over the past week, indicating a revaluation of liquidity premiums in the altcoin market [3][4] Macro Liquidity and Risk Assets - The signing of the fiscal bill has temporarily eased the immediate shutdown crisis, but the overall capital market remains under pressure. The correlation between risk assets is increasing, as evidenced by the 2% drop in the Nasdaq index, reflecting ongoing concerns among global investors regarding long-term funding costs. Future negotiations regarding the Department of Homeland Security budget are expected to be the next potential trigger for market volatility [3][4] Investment Strategy - The cryptocurrency market has begun to stabilize after the irrational decline caused by administrative intervention expectations. However, without further liquidity stimulus, price movements are likely to oscillate around current support levels. Investors are advised to closely monitor market reactions following policy signings and adjust positions flexibly based on volatility indicators to seek more stable allocation opportunities in a volatile macro environment [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, there is a high certainty that the liability growth rate of the real - sector will rise in February, and the financial sector (funding situation) is okay. Overall, the macro - liquidity is improving, with a positive view on equities, and the value and growth styles are tending to balance. Convertible bonds still have the advantage of asymmetric gains and losses in a volatile environment, and the demand for convertible bonds, especially convertible bond ETFs, may remain rigid. The valuation of the convertible bond market is expected to stay at a high level [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, due to the confirmation of the new candidate for the Fed Chairman, market risk appetite declined, and various assets fluctuated. Convertible bond prices followed the decline of the underlying stocks, but the valuation of convertible bonds remained at a historical high, and supported by the valuation, convertible bonds performed better than the underlying stocks. The average daily trading volume of the entire convertible bond market was 77.3 billion yuan, with basically no change compared to the previous week. The 100 - yuan premium rate remained at 34%, and the implied volatility fluctuated around the historical extreme point of 45%. The trading sentiment of convertible bonds continued to cool down slightly, and the trading popularity of traditional speculative bonds returned to a historical low. The trends of each sector were consistent with the underlying stocks, and the valuations changed passively. High - price, large - cap, low - rated, and newly - listed bonds had relatively large adjustment ranges [11]. - In a high - valuation environment, most industries are dominated by equity - like convertible bonds and high - price - high - premium convertible bonds. Industries with high - price - high - premium convertible bonds accounting for over 50% include the automotive and computer industries, where the valuation of convertible bonds deviates significantly. Industries with equity - like convertible bonds accounting for over 50% include the military, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, machinery, and chemical industries, where convertible bonds have high elasticity and strong offensiveness [11]. Funding Sentiment - Comparing the share fluctuations of various broad - based indices, bond - type, and major commodity (gold) ETFs, last week, the shares of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 continued to decline significantly, the CSI 500 was newly added as a major reduction target, and the capital inflow trend of the CSI 2000 stopped. The share of gold ETFs continued to increase significantly, with a growth rate of 12%, the same as the previous week. Convertible bond ETFs have maintained a stable net inflow recently, with the fund shares increasing significantly for four consecutive weeks, and the shares continued to grow by 3.5% last week. The share of interest - rate bonds continued to shrink [21]. Investment Strategy - Short - term investment strategy: Be optimistic about equities, with value and growth styles tending to balance. The valuation of the convertible bond market is expected to stay high, but be aware of the call risk and the risk of double - kill of the underlying stocks and valuation during the earnings disclosure period [23]. - Bond - selection suggestions: Emphasize the performance support of the underlying stocks. Pay attention to Jintian Convertible Bond and Guoli Convertible Bond in the UHV sector; Liugong Convertible Bond 2 and Yunji Convertible Bond in the pro - cyclical and engineering overseas sectors; Lixun Convertible Bond in AI applications; Ruichuang Convertible Bond in the military industry. For newly - listed bonds, recommend paying attention to Weidao Convertible Bond, Yongxi Convertible Bond, Weice Convertible Bond, and Dinglong Convertible Bond in the field of domestic substitution of semiconductors; Ruike Convertible Bond in the field of AI server connectors; Jin 05 Convertible Bond (Jinpan Technology) in power grid equipment; Yingliu Convertible Bond for gas turbines; and Jin 25 Convertible Bond (Jinchangxin) [23].

Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries rose and fell respectively, indicating a rebound in inflation expectations [1][15]. - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened marginally, while the domestic interbank funding remained balanced. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds narrowed [1][22]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity has rebounded, with trading heat in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, military industry, chemicals, and steel exceeding the 90th percentile [2][26]. - The volatility of major indices has increased, with the military sector's volatility reaching above the 80th percentile [2][33]. - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 60th historical percentile [2][37]. Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, machinery, computing, and automotive sectors are leading in research activity, with a rising trend in research heat for banking, petrochemicals, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and building materials [3][44]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has continued to increase [4][17]. - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, retail, home appliances, and real estate have also seen upward adjustments in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [4][21]. - Major indices including the ChiNext Index, CSI 300, and SSE 50 have had their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts raised, while the CSI 500 saw a decrease in its forecasts [4][23]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, although there has been a continued net sell-off of A-shares. The ratio of buy/sell totals in sectors like non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage has risen [5][31]. - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, there were significant net purchases in sectors such as food and beverage, electricity, and public utilities, while net sales were observed in computing, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to decline, reaching its lowest level since mid-July 2025. The net purchases were mainly in non-ferrous metals, finance, and food and beverage sectors, while net sales were seen in electronics, military, and computing sectors [6][35]. Long-Short Trading Activity - Long-short trading activity has continued to rise, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage showing relatively high trading volumes [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have increased their positions in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and electronics, while reducing positions in pharmaceuticals, media, and food and beverage sectors [8][46]. - The correlation between active equity funds and small-cap growth, as well as large/mid-cap value, has increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth and small-cap value has decreased [8][48].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：金十期货 SC原油主力午盘闪崩封跌停！美伊"认真谈话"信号突发，地缘溢价一夜蒸发，这是趋势反转还是暴力 洗盘？ 2026年2月2日，SC原油期货主力合约午盘迅速走低，并最终封于跌停板。综合市场分析认为，此次波 动而是国际油价剧烈波动的直接映射。其核心驱动力在于，持续支撑油价的地缘政治"风险溢价"因美伊 紧张局势出现意外缓和信号而骤然收缩，同时，宏观流动性预期收紧以及本就宽松的供需基本面共同放 大了市场的抛售压力。同时，美元走强、宏观流动性预期收紧以及本就宽松的供需基本面共同放大了市 场的抛售压力。 疲弱基本面难以支撑高溢价 虽然欧佩克+成员国同意维持暂停增产政策，3月保持原油产量不再提高。石油输出国组织发表声明 称，八个欧佩克+成员国重申致力于维护市场稳定，全球经济前景稳健且当前石油市场基本面健康，库 存水平较低。但创元期货表示，考虑到当前全球石油供应过剩大背景，将压制情绪溢价的表现高度，油 价持续走高难度较大。 援引光大期货研报显示，IEA认为，今年国际石油市场将出现供过于求的情况，供给超出需求的幅度高 达每日385万桶，相当于全球需求 ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries remained unchanged and rebounded, respectively, with inflation expectations slightly decreasing [1][15] - Offshore US dollar liquidity is generally loose, while the domestic interbank funding situation is balanced but tight. The term spread (10Y-1Y) has narrowed [1][15] Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity has significantly decreased, with the volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 indices rising. Sectors such as military, electric new energy, consumer services, chemicals, and home appliances have trading heat levels above the 90th percentile [2][25] - The volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 indices has increased, while the volatility of various sectors remains below the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with liquidity metrics for various sectors remaining below the 60th historical percentile [2][35] Institutional Research - The research heat for sectors such as electronics, electric new energy, automotive, computers, and machinery is high, while only the banking sector has seen a sequential increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has continued to rise [4][50] - Specific sectors such as agriculture, non-ferrous metals, consumer services, computers, and electronics have seen upward adjustments in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index, CSI 500, and Shanghai Composite 50 for 2026/2027 have been increased, while the forecasts for the CSI 300 have been adjusted downwards/upwards [4][51] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, but there continues to be a net purchase of A-shares. The ratio of total buying and selling in sectors like electronics, automotive, and home appliances has increased [5][31] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, the main net purchases have been in electronics, electric new energy, and chemicals, while net sales have occurred in computers, media, and military sectors [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has continued to decline, reaching its lowest level since late July 2025. The net selling last week was 8.265 billion yuan, with significant net purchases in non-ferrous metals, finance, and food and beverage sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases across various sectors has decreased [6][38] - Margin financing continues to net buy large-cap growth/value sectors [6][39] Dragon and Tiger List Trading Activity - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list has continued to rise, although the total trading amount on the list as a percentage of total A-share trading has decreased [7][41] Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen significant net redemptions. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in light industry, banking, and pharmaceuticals, while reducing positions in electric new energy, communications, and chemicals [8][45] - The correlation of active equity funds with large/mid-cap growth/value has increased, while the correlation with small-cap growth/value has decreased [8][48] - The scale of newly established equity funds has continued to rise, with active and passive funds seeing respective increases and slight decreases [8][50]

东莞证券认为，周三(1月21日)，A股市场三大指数集体收涨。从技术分析角度看，早盘沪指收复5日及 10日均线，但午后量能有所减弱，难以支撑指数有效突破，需关注后续主线板块能否放量引领突破。短 期来看，A股市场在创下阶段性新高后，当前正在高位整理。监管近期新政有望引导市场情绪回归理 性，利于其内在稳定性的稳步提升。中期而言，在监管层积极引导中长期资金入市的背景下，叠加国际 货币秩序重构等宏观积极因素，A股市场向上的大方向有望延续。进入1月下旬，上市公司年度业绩预 告进入密集披露期，市场博弈情绪预计将显著升温，投资主线将从宏观流动性驱动转向微观业绩验证。 东吴证券认为，周三(1月21日)，A股主要指数震荡飘红。盘面上看，板块个股涨多跌少，总体看约3/5 的品种上行，在市场成交量缩小的状态下，市场人气和赚钱效应相对保持较好。受到国际地缘紧张影 响，贵金属价格继续上行，并开始出现扩散效应，有色金属板块继续保持强势，较多品种出现联动上 行；大科技类品种表现也较为强势。另一方面，受到部分白酒企业业绩预披露下滑的影响，白酒相关品 种维持下跌趋势。目前市场横盘整理，热点品种，板块个股有序轮动，整体市场人气保持高位，同时成 交 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to continue its oscillating adjustment in the short term, with major indices experiencing collective declines [2][3][11] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a significant drop in trading volume, as the total transaction amount in the two markets has shrunk to approximately 2.7 trillion [3][12] - The report highlights that the market is currently in a phase of performance expectations versus fundamental verification, particularly as the end of January approaches, which will see a peak in annual report forecasts [3][12] Sector Analysis Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has shown continued strength, driven by rising gold and silver futures, with five key factors contributing to this trend: the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, strong demand for gold from global central banks, a weakening dollar, and rising inflation concerns [9] - The report advises caution against chasing prices in the precious metals market after significant increases, suggesting short-term trading opportunities with stop-loss measures [9] Real Estate - The real estate sector has become active due to a series of supportive policies from central and local governments aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed lending and purchasing restrictions [10] - The report anticipates that ongoing policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics will boost the sector, with a focus on high-quality companies with land reserve advantages and those returning to stable growth [10] Future Market Outlook - The report maintains a positive medium-term outlook for the market, citing a global interest rate cut cycle entering its second half and a favorable macro liquidity environment [3][12] - It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the short term, waiting for signs of market stabilization before adjusting strategies, while also identifying long-term investment opportunities in sectors with strong policy support and performance certainty [3][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector [4] Core Insights - In December 2025, the total credit increment for the year was 16.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, which corresponds to the loan gap created by local government debt [5] - The report forecasts that the new credit for 2026 will be between 14.5 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [5] - Social financing (社融) continued to decline, down 0.2 percentage points to 8.3% in December, primarily due to a contraction in fiscal spending [5] - The M1 growth rate fell to 3.8%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, indicating a significant impact from fiscal tightening [5] - M2 growth rebounded to 8.5%, driven by a notable increase in non-bank deposits [5] - The report highlights a trend of residents saving more and borrowing less, with a decrease in both long-term and short-term loans [5] Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - The total credit increment for December was a decrease of 0.08 trillion yuan year-on-year, while social financing credit increased by 0.13 trillion yuan, mainly contributed by the corporate sector [5] - The report notes that the increase in corporate loans is partly due to a low base from December 2024 and the effects of strict payment policies introduced in March 2025 [5] Monetary Indicators - M1 growth rate decreased to 3.8%, with a monthly increment decline of 1.04 trillion yuan, reflecting the impact of fiscal tightening [5] - M2 growth rate increased to 8.5%, primarily due to a significant rise in non-bank deposits, which is attributed to the low base from the previous year [5] Resident and Corporate Loans - In December, long-term loans to residents decreased by 0.29 trillion yuan, while short-term loans decreased by 0.16 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of reduced borrowing among residents [5] - The report emphasizes that the corporate sector has seen an increase in short-term loans and bond financing, likely due to the new payment regulations affecting large enterprises [5] Fiscal and Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that macro liquidity will continue to contract, with fiscal policies remaining tight and residents continuing to reduce leverage [5] - The overall trend suggests a stable but slightly improving fundamental outlook for the banking sector, with long-term absolute returns expected [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a continued slowdown, with concerns about the Fed's independence increasing. Key events such as the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs, US CPI data, new Fed chair nomination, and Q4 GDP data should be closely monitored [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve moderately, with a focus on the investment side. Policies are being implemented, and the central bank is increasing liquidity through a 300 - billion - yuan net injection of 6 - month repos [7]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold on a monthly basis. Treat silver as a short - term standard allocation and consider overweighting it after volatility stabilizes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary 3.1.1 Index Futures and Related Financial Instruments - Stock index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4740 with a daily decline of 0.44%, SSE 50 futures at 3114 with a daily decline of 0.57%, CSI 500 futures at 8197.8 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and CSI 1000 futures at 8156 with a daily increase of 0.09% [2]. - Bond futures: 2 - year bond futures closed at 102.334 with no daily change, 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily increase of 0.04%, 10 - year at 107.93 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and 30 - year at 111.27 with a daily decline of 0.03% [2]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 99.1842 with a daily increase of 0.29%, and the US dollar mid - price was 6.9777 with a 46 - pip increase [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5668% with a 1.94 - bp increase, the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8494% with a 0.25 - bp decrease, and the 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.18% with a 1 - bp decrease [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Indexes - Computer, comprehensive finance, and media industries showed significant monthly increases of 17.81%, 6.64%, and 25.84% respectively, while banking and real estate industries had monthly decreases of 2.68% and 2.91% respectively [4]. 3.1.3 Domestic Commodities - Precious metals: Gold had a daily increase of 1.29% and a monthly increase of 6.51%, silver had a daily increase of 1.53% and a monthly increase of 2.54% [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Fuel oil had a daily increase of 5.1%, low - sulfur fuel oil had a daily increase of 6.15%, and crude oil had a daily increase of 0.38% [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Stainless steel had a daily increase of 0.93%, tin had a daily increase of 8.84% [5]. 3.1.4 Overseas Commodities - Crude oil: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 61.1 with a daily increase of 2.69%, and ICE Brent crude oil was at 65.46 with a daily increase of 2.49% [6]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold was at 4594.4 with a daily decline of 0.44%, and COMEX silver was at 86.86 with a daily increase of 2.08% [6]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans were at 1039 with a daily decline of 0.95%, and CBOT corn was at 420.25 with a daily decline of 0.3% [6]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Views 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upward, awaiting incremental funds. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate, with long - end sentiment remaining weak [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Both gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upward, influenced by factors such as US fundamentals, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with attention on 2026 shipping company resumption plans, year - end long - term contract freight rates, and pre - Spring Festival cargo volume [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products, iron ore, and other related products are expected to fluctuate, with attention on factors such as special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production and transportation [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper, aluminum, tin, and other non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each metal, such as supply disruptions and policy changes [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with geopolitical factors and raw material prices being important influencing factors. Asphalt is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Some agricultural products such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to fluctuate upward, while sugar is expected to fluctuate downward [11].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the global interest rate cut cycle will enter its second half in 2026, characterized by "synchronized internal and external easing" and a transition from "extraordinary to normal" macro liquidity conditions [1] Group 1: Macro Environment - The US dollar is under pressure, while the appreciation of the Chinese yuan supports a strong performance in A-shares [1] - The long-term low interest rate environment is reshaping the logic of stock and bond allocation, with the mid-term "stock-bond seesaw" effect further supporting A-share trends [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for "deposit migration" among residents may become the largest marginal increment for the market [1] - In the post-real estate era, the capital market's status is upgraded to become a core hub for economic development and resource allocation, continuously optimizing the market funding ecosystem [1] - This foundation is set for the high-quality development of the capital market [1]