Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily market analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, suggesting that most commodities will experience wide fluctuations or repeated oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 805 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of imported and domestic ores remained mostly stable, except for a 1 yuan increase in the price of Super Special ore (56.5%). Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations [2][6][7] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased, with trading volumes and positions changing. The spot prices in most regions declined. Some basis and spread values changed [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a 3.3% month-on-month decrease; imports were 50.0 million tons, a 10.6% month-on-month increase. In the week of September 4, the production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased, inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations affected by market sentiment [2][10] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of some futures contracts increased, with changes in trading volumes and positions. Spot prices and various spreads changed [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 10, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied by region. A steel company's procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon decreased. A large steel group increased its tender volume for silicomanganese in September, and the tender price decreased. UMK lowered its manganese ore price for China in October [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][14][15] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 decreased, while J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and some basis and spread values changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an action plan for stabilizing growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry from 2025 - 2026 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [15] Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Repeated oscillations [2][17] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different futures contracts changed, with varying daily and weekly price and volume fluctuations. Spot prices remained mostly stable [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent extension of the tariff negotiation deadline between China and the U.S. is a positive development for the A-share market, indicating that further discussions are likely and that the market sentiment will benefit from the avoidance of escalation in relations [1] - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.77% and 1.62% respectively, indicating volatility in the market [3][7] - The wide fluctuations in the A-share market are seen as beneficial for consolidating positions, with expectations that the index will find it easier to rise towards 3674 points after the recent volatility [5] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but saw a high of 3636 points before retreating to a low of 3593 points, reflecting a rollercoaster trading day with significant internal capital outflow of nearly 500 billion [3][7] - The market is characterized by a "seesaw effect" between heavyweight blue-chip stocks and thematic stocks, suggesting a strategy of focusing on thematic opportunities rather than just index movements [7]

消息面 铜冠金源期货： 7月份以来美豆产区水热条件良好，且未来两周预报仍维持适宜的天气，美豆作物生长发育情况良好， 优良率再次上调至70%，为高单产奠定基础，外盘震荡偏弱运行。阿根廷降低大豆及豆粕出口税率，或 有利于中国四季度扩大进口；另外关注中美谈判进程落地给出的指引。国内商品多头情绪降温，豆粕库 存继续增加，现货承压。短期连粕或宽幅震荡运行。 7月25日，全国主要油厂进口大豆库存713万吨，周环比上升1万吨，月环比上升58万吨，同比减少21万 吨，较过去三年均值上升112万吨；豆粕库存105万吨，周环比上升4万吨，月环比上升37万吨，同比下 降33万吨，较过去三年同期均值下降3万吨。 2025年7月第4周，共计19个工作日，巴西累计装出豆粕188.05万吨，去年7月为203.22万吨。日均装运量 为9.9万吨/日，较去年7月的8.84万吨/日增加12.02%。 据外媒报道，马托格罗索州农业经济研究所（IMEA）公布，马托格罗索州7月21日至7月25日当周大豆 压榨利润为435.55雷亚尔/吨，此前一周为441.52雷亚尔/吨。当周，该州豆粕价格为1493.27雷亚尔/吨。 机构观点 五矿期货： 外盘大豆进 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall market trends are characterized by wide - range fluctuations, with thermal coal showing signs of stabilizing due to improved daily consumption [2][4][6][7][11][14][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The import and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of Jinbuba and Super Special ores. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 2,997 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%); for hot - rolled coil, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Industry News**: In June, the manufacturing PMI and other economic indicators showed an upward trend. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data had different changes. In May, the exports of steel billets, rebar, and wire rods increased significantly [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, manganese ore, and semi - coke showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [11]. - **Industry News**: The prices and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The production of ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased, and the production of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also showed certain changes [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations affected by news [2][14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also changed. The positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed different trends [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Expected to stabilize with fluctuations due to improved daily consumption [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading yesterday. The prices of foreign trade and domestic thermal coal in different regions were reported, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE showed no change [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the change of the main contract [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Industry News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The manganese silicon market is subject to macro - sentiment disturbances and shows wide - range fluctuations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SiFe2508 is 5326 (down 22 from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 12,560 and an open interest of 32,874; SiFe2509 has a closing price of 5288 (down 28), a trading volume of 151,170, and an open interest of 218,647. For manganese silicon, MnSi2508 has a closing price of 5550 (down 52), a trading volume of 27,811, and an open interest of 24,513; MnSi2509 has a closing price of 5556 (down 54), a trading volume of 364,607, and an open interest of 405,076 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5100 yuan/ton; the price of silicon manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 37.0 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 580 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon iron (spot - 08 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton (up 22); that of manganese silicon (spot - 09 futures) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 54). The near - far month price difference of silicon iron (2508 - 2509) is 38 yuan/ton (up 6); that of manganese silicon (2508 - 2509) is - 12 yuan/ton (up 2). The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2508 - silicon iron 2508 is 224 yuan/ton (down 30); that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 is 268 yuan/ton (down 26) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On June 24, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was as follows: Shaanxi 5000 - 5100, Ningxia 5100 - 5150 (down 50), Qinghai 5050 - 5200, Gansu 5050 - 5150, Inner Mongolia 5100 - 5150; 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5600 - 5650, Ningxia 5550 - 5650, Qinghai 5550 - 5600, Gansu 5700 - 5750, Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1000 - 1030 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1080 - 1110 dollars/ton. The northern price of 6517 silicon manganese was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton, and the southern price was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton due to tight supply [1] - Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the silicon iron purchase price at 5480 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a purchase volume of 600 tons [1] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and predicts that they will all experience wide - range fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 706.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.43%. The positions increased by 4,370 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most ores decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%. In terms of inventory and demand, there were corresponding changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8][9]. - **News**: In May 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production. On June 19, steel production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand changed [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Ferrosilicon is affected by sector sentiment resonance and silicomanganese has a firm ore - end quotation, both with wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [10]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed, and a steel mill in Shandong finalized the ferrosilicon purchase price [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Four rounds of coke price cuts have been implemented [2][13]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of coke and coking coal futures changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads. The positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts also changed [13][15]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of coking coal in some regions changed, and the positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed that the long positions of coking coal increased and the short positions decreased, while for coke, both long and short positions decreased [13][14][15]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Demand remains to be released, with wide - range fluctuations [2][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. There were corresponding prices for domestic and foreign trade thermal coal, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE did not change [18][19]. Logs - **Market Trend**: The basis is being repaired, with wide - range fluctuations [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed, and the prices of various types of logs in the spot market were mostly stable [21]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The log market shows basis repair and wide - range fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price on June 19, 2025, was 798, with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 4.0%. The trading volume was 21,160, a daily decrease of 34.0% and a weekly increase of 39%. The open interest was 22,957, a daily decrease of 1.9% and a weekly increase of 9%. Similar data is presented for 2509 and 2511 contracts [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was - 48 on June 19, 2025, with a daily increase of 5.5% and a weekly increase of 75%. The basis between 2507 - 2509 contract had a daily increase of 700.0% and a weekly decrease of 124% [1] - **Spot Market Data**: In the log spot market, most prices remained stable on June 19, 2025, with some showing minor weekly changes. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 750 yuan/m³, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. In the wood square spot market, prices were mostly unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to May 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the log market is experiencing basis repair and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of logs is rated as 1, suggesting a neutral - to - slightly positive outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price on June 18 was 795.5 with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 4.0%. The trading volume decreased by 32.0% daily but increased by 116% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 2.8% daily and increased by 5% weekly. Similar data is presented for 2509 and 2511 contracts, showing different price, volume, and open - interest trends [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and futures contracts, as well as between different futures contracts, showed significant changes. For example, the basis of spot - 2507 decreased by 14.2% daily and increased by 82% weekly [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Different types of logs in various regions had different price changes. For instance, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 1.4% both daily and weekly, while the price of 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market decreased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing fluctuations in gold prices and the resilience of silver bulls despite potential pullbacks [1] - It raises questions about the impact of CPI data on the market and the duration of the current stalemate in gold prices [1] - The latest episode of "Steven Trend Equation" has been updated, providing further insights into these market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The operating rate of PDH units is expected to remain below 70% due to poor profitability, despite new units starting up in June and July [1] - The demand for alkylation and MTBE units is increasing, driven by gasoline demand, while there is a slight increase in demand for C4 [1] - The international LPG price is declining, with US propane inventories continuing to rise and overall market resources being abundant [1] Group 2 - The domestic LPG supply is rebounding, with inventory levels remaining high and port storage capacity slightly decreasing after reaching a seasonal high [2] - The market is experiencing a cautious sentiment due to tariff issues, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low and chemical demand being weak [2] - The PDH weekly capacity utilization has slightly rebounded but remains at a multi-year low, while alkylation capacity utilization has also increased, with margins near zero [2] Group 3 - Domestic refinery prices are weak, with terminal gas sales declining and increased refinery output leading to a loose supply of domestic gas [3] - Chemical demand is recovering month-on-month, but PDH margins have slightly decreased due to falling naphtha prices, limiting future growth potential [3] - Overall market pressure is evident with rising inventories at both terminals and refineries, despite some support from strong crude oil prices [3]