Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but there are still limited incremental positives. The bond market has become less sensitive to the stock market since late August, and as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the stock market's suppression of the bond market may further ease. From a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019 due to government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, supply - side disturbances are weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies are unlikely to be implemented. Overall, the suppression of the bond market may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough. In the short term, this week is a period of intensive economic data release, and economic data is expected to show moderate recovery, with the main focus on the stock - bond seesaw and the expectation of central bank bond - buying [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The strength of the A - share market suppressed long - term bonds, while loose funds supported short - term bonds. Most yields of major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.8010%, down 1.4bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank increased its open - market operations, resulting in a stable and then looser funding situation. There were 2126 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 2920 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 794 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable and then loosened. Short - term funding rates mostly declined slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 5.69bp to 1.3706%, the 7 - day rate rising 0.5bp to 1.4813%, and medium - and long - term funds remaining stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.6% [10]. 2. Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year due to a higher base and weak food prices. Core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [13]. - **Policy Statements**: The National Development and Reform Commission aims to better coordinate domestic economic work and international trade struggles, maintain policy continuity and stability, and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. The Ministry of Finance plans to make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade, foster new growth drivers, improve people's livelihoods, and prevent and resolve risks [13][14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 8, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interest, and position changes [6]. - **Monetary Market**: Data on the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted rates are presented [28][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the manufacturing PMI in August improved compared to the previous month but remained below the boom-bust line. Both supply and demand showed a month-on-month improvement, and the price level rebounded under the "anti-involution" policy. However, the export may face pressure in the future as the effect of pre-exporting weakens. In terms of funds, the central bank maintains an attitude of supporting funds, and it is generally expected that the funds will remain loose in the future. Looking ahead, with weak domestic demand recovery and the likelihood of continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to have downward room. However, in terms of rhythm, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and the bond market is expected to be in a short-term volatile pattern. The bond market should be considered for long positions on dips in the medium to long term [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Environment**: The manufacturing PMI data in August showed a slight overall improvement, with both supply and demand ends recovering. The "anti-involution" policy boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. In terms of exports, although the import and export data in July exceeded expectations due to the pre-exporting effect, exports may face pressure in the future due to the overdraft of pre-exporting and the rising base in the second half of the year. Overseas, the market has strong expectations for a US interest rate cut in September, which is beneficial for financial market liquidity. On September 5, the central bank conducted a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [14]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 10684 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.45% [15]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10Y Treasury yield closed at 1.80%, down 4.76BP week - on - week; the 30Y Treasury yield closed at 2.07%, down 6.85BP week - on - week. The latest 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.17%, down 6.00BP week - on - week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to take long positions on dips for a single - sided strategy, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [17]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [20][23][26][29][32][33]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value [38]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In August, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry recovered. Industries such as pharmaceuticals and computer communication and electronic equipment had production and new order indices higher than the overall manufacturing PMI, while industries such as textile and clothing, wood processing and furniture, and chemical raw materials and chemicals were below the boom - bust line [44]. - **Price Index**: In July, the year - on - year CPI was 0.0%, the core CPI was up 0.8% year - on - year, and the PPI was down 3.6% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI was 0.4%, the core CPI was 0.4%, and the PPI was - 0.2%. The increase in the month - on - month CPI was mainly driven by seasonal factors and the rise in consumer goods prices, while the year - on - year decline in PPI remained flat and the month - on - month decline narrowed [47]. - **Export Data**: In July, China's imports and exports recovered due to pre - exporting, with exports (in US dollars) increasing by 7.2% year - on - year and imports increasing by 4.1% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21.67% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate of 16.59% year - on - year [50]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, both showing a slowdown [53]. - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.0%. In July, the month - on - month price of second - hand housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.5%, and the year - on - year price was - 5.9%. The new construction area in July was 352060000 square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%, and the new construction area under construction was 6387310000 square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The completion data in July decreased by 29.46% year - on - year, and the new home sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened [56][59][62]. Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the annualized US GDP at current prices was 30331 billion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In July, the unadjusted CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The durable goods orders in July were 3028 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 3.26%. The non - farm payrolls increased by 73000 in July, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. In August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52 [65][68][71]. - **European Economy**: In the second quarter, the EU's GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter. In August, the preliminary value of the eurozone's CPI increased by 2.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI in August was 50.7, and the service industry PMI was 50.5 [71][74]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In July, the growth rate of M1 was 5.6%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.8%. The incremental social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with an increase of 3893 billion yuan year - on - year. The new RMB loans were nearly - 500 billion yuan, and social financing mainly came from the growth of government bonds. Both corporate and household credit weakened [79]. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In August, the MLF balance was 55500 billion yuan, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 10684 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.45% [85]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The report provides the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [88]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts**: The report presents charts of Treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and exchange rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [92][95][96].

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Industry: Treasury Bond 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but incremental positive factors are still limited. The bond market has become gradually insensitive to the stock market since late August, and as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the stock market's suppression on the bond market may further ease. However, from a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019, mainly due to government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and it is still difficult for broad - monetary policies to be implemented. Overall, the suppression of the bond market may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance** - The A - share market adjusted, but the bond market sentiment remained cautious. Treasury bond futures fluctuated downward and closed lower across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds changed within a narrow range, mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.768%, down 0.05bp [8][9]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the money market tightened marginally. There were 4058 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index rose slightly, short - term money market rates mostly changed within a narrow range, the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate fell about 0.8bp to 1.44%, medium - and long - term funds remained stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion** - The bond market's fundamentals and policies in August did not change significantly, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but there are still limited incremental positive factors. The suppression of the stock market on the bond market may further ease, but from a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies are still difficult to implement. Overall, the bond market suppression may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the end of July this year, the bond market custody balance reached 190.4 trillion yuan, breaking through the 190 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time, setting a new historical high, which is a significant sign of the in - depth development of China's financial market and releases three positive signals: continuous increase in the direct financing scale of the real economy, more diversified asset allocation of financial institutions, and further enrichment of residents' asset allocation methods [13]. - The Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans was officially implemented on September 1. Participating pilot banks and other institutions officially accepted subsidy application. Some bank executives were optimistic about the impact of the consumption credit subsidy policy during the interim results season, and credit card installment business is not within the scope of subsidy [13]. - Many banks announced that the commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai no longer distinguish between first - home and second - home loans. After the adjustment, the minimum interest rate for new first - home loans in Shanghai is 3.05%, and the minimum interest rate for new second - home loans is 3.09%. Second - home mortgage loans with an interest rate higher than 3.36% can be lowered to 3.36% [13]. - The inter - bank lending center and the Shanghai Clearing House optimized the clearing mechanism for general repurchase transactions in the inter - bank bond market. The scope of participants was expanded to legal entities of deposit - taking financial institutions, and the scope of eligible collateral bonds was expanded to include non - financial corporate debt financing instruments issued by state - owned enterprise - managed industrial companies and high - quality private enterprises, as well as bonds issued by high - quality international development institutions [14]. - With the central bank maintaining a relatively loose attitude towards liquidity, market institutions expect that with the acceleration of fiscal expenditures, liquidity in September is expected to remain reasonably abundant, and fluctuations may mainly occur during periods of concentrated government bond issuance, if the stock market strengthens and causes increased concerns in the bond market, and in the last week of the quarter [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market** - The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 2, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - It also mentions the inter - term spreads of the main treasury bond futures contracts and the inter - variety spreads among 2 - year, 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts, as well as the trends of the main treasury bond futures contracts [16][20]. - **Money Market** - The report shows the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [30][34]. - **Derivatives Market** - The report presents the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher and continued to rise, with total trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56 points, up 1.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12441.07 points, up 2.26% [1] Sector Performance - All sectors experienced gains, with telecommunications continuing its strong performance, followed by non-ferrous metals and real estate [1] - Mining ETFs and non-ferrous metal ETFs saw significant increases, with the mining ETF rising by 5.32% and the non-ferrous 60 ETF increasing by 5% [6] Economic Indicators - The bond market showed significant strength, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 1.7625%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [2][5] - The recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting market sentiment and risk appetite [6][7] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued growth stocks and consider ETFs such as the CSI A500 ETF and Hong Kong Technology ETF to capture opportunities [2][5] - The recent policy changes in rare earth management are expected to enhance supply constraints and increase price bargaining power, benefiting leading companies in the sector [6] Gold Market Insights - The gold market is experiencing upward momentum due to increased expectations for interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, making gold a preferred asset [7][8] - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, with the latest data showing a rise to 73.96 million ounces, reflecting a sustained trend of gold accumulation [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and growth of the Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180), which has seen significant net inflows and a notable increase in its scale [1] - As of August, the Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF has accumulated over 2.5 billion yuan in net inflows, with its latest scale surpassing 10.7 billion yuan [1] - The fund's net value growth rates are reported as 5.10% over the past six months, 9.61% over the past year, and 18.16% since its inception [1] Group 2 - The bond market is approaching an independent trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high and bond yields experiencing fluctuations [1] - Long-term bond yields have increased, with the 10-year government bond rising to 1.79% (+4 basis points) and the 30-year government bond reaching 2.04% (+4.4 basis points) [1] - Short-term bond yields have also risen, with the 1-year government bond at 1.38% (+1.7 basis points) and the 3-year government bond at 1.44% (+2.5 basis points) [1] Group 3 - The Huaxi Macro Fixed Income Team anticipates that the bond market may benefit from expectations of interest rate cuts, particularly following dovish remarks from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [2] - The dovish stance has alleviated concerns regarding the Federal Reserve not cutting rates in September, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar index and an appreciation of the offshore RMB [2] - The easing of global interest rate pressures opens up space for domestic monetary policy adjustments, including potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and bond purchases by the central bank [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic data in July showed a slight slowdown, with external demand better than domestic demand. The "anti - involution" concept boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. Exports may face pressure in the future due to the over - drafting of the front - loading effect and the rising base in the second half of the year. The strong market expectation of a US interest rate cut in September is beneficial to the liquidity of the financial market [10]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and the expected continuation of loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. In the long - run, the bond market should be considered for long - position trading on dips [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year; the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.7% higher than the previous year; from January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0%. The suspension of 24% of the additional tariffs on US imports continued for 90 days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain sufficient liquidity. The market expects a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September [10][11][12]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The DR007 rate closed at 1.48% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield was 1.74%, up 5.02 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield was 2.04%, up 7.70 BP week - on - week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, up 6.00 BP week - on - week [13]. - **Summary**: The economic data in the first half of the year remained resilient under tariff disturbances. In July, economic and financial data were generally lower than expected, and domestic demand needs to be boosted. Exports may face pressure in the future. The central bank will maintain a loose attitude towards funds. In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts, but does not provide specific analysis conclusions [18][21][24][27]. 3.3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations [44]. - PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, also down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [44]. - Price Index: In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, CPI increased by 0.4%, core CPI increased by 0.4%, and PPI decreased by 0.2% [53]. - Exports: In July, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21.67% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 16.59% year - on - year [56]. - Industrial Added Value: In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7%, down from 6.8% in the previous month [59]. - Retail Sales: In July, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [59]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%. Real estate investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, and manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year [62]. - Real Estate: In July, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and the housing construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year. The completion data decreased by 29.46% year - on - year, and the sales data of new houses in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened [65][68]. - **Foreign Economy** - US: In the second quarter, the US GDP increased by 1.99% year - on - year and 3.0% quarter - on - quarter. In July, the non - seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the PPI increased by 3.3% year - on - year. In June, durable goods orders increased by 10.93% year - on - year. In July, non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8 [71][74][77]. - EU: In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [77]. - Eurozone: In July, the preliminary CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year. The preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the preliminary service PMI was 51.2 [80]. 3.4. Liquidity - In July, the M1 growth rate was 5.6%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.8%. The social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, mainly from government bond issuance. Both corporate and household credit weakened. The MLF balance in July was 525 billion yuan, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 711.8 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan [85][91]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.58%, 1.74%, and 2.04% respectively, with weekly increases of 0.22 BP, 3.14 BP, 5.02 BP, and 7.70 BP respectively. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, up 6.00 BP week - on - week [94]. - **Exchange Rates**: No specific analysis of exchange rate trends was provided in the report, only the presentation of exchange rate data [102].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the domestic economic fundamentals remained under pressure in June, the financial data showed that the effects of the loose monetary policy had begun to emerge, which might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The market had high expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Sino-US trade negotiations this week, and the stock index might continue to rise in the near term. In the long run, the central Huijin's increase in ETF holdings also had a driving effect on guiding long-term funds into the market, injecting confidence into the market, and the stock index also had the potential to rise. The strategy suggested buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of most futures contracts rose, with the IF, IH, and IC contracts increasing, while the IM main contract (2509) decreased. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 4122.0, up 6.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the IF - IH current - month contract spread decreasing by 2.0 to 1325.2 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased to -27,859.00, down 1918.0 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of major indices rose, including the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 4135.82, up 8.7 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of most futures contracts changed, with the IF main contract basis decreasing to -13.8, down 2.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased to 17,661.50 billion yuan, down 493.01 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased to 19,474.29 billion yuan, up 54.37 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: Various indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks, option prices, and implied volatilities showed different trends. The proportion of rising stocks increased to 51.37%, up 4.60% [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Overall A - shares**: The strength of all A - shares increased to 5.80, up 1.10, with improvements in both the technical and capital aspects [2]. Industry News - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2]. - **A - share Financing**: As of July 27, 74 A - share companies had completed private placements this year, raising a total of 659 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Stock Index Performance**: The major A - share indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly [2]. Key Events to Watch - **International Economic Data**: Important economic data and central bank decisions in the US and Canada are scheduled to be released from July 29 to August 1, such as the US June JOLTs job openings on July 29 at 22:00 [3].

【大河财立方 记者 杨萨】7月14日，央行发布2025年上半年金融统计数据报告。总体上看，6月新增信 贷和新增社融均实现同比多增，好于市场预期。 数据显示，2025年6月新增人民币贷款2.24万亿元，同比多增1100亿元；6月新增社会融资规模为41993 亿元，同比多增9008亿元；6月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.4个百分点；狭 义货币（M1）同比增长4.6%，增速较上月末高2.3个百分点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，5月降息降准落地，6月央行持续实施中期流动性净投放，企业和居 民融资成本下行，信贷可获得性改善，加之政府债券处于发行高峰期，拉动社融数据走高。另外，当月 票据冲量现象明显缓解，企业短贷同比大幅多增，信贷结构也有所改善。 6月末人民币各项贷款同比增长7.1% 中国人民银行调查统计司司长闫先东在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，央行实施好适度宽松的货 币政策，强化逆周期调节，运用多种货币政策工具组合，服务实体经济高质量发展。信贷总量保持平稳 增长。 上半年，人民币各项贷款新增12.92万亿元。6月末，金融机构人民币各项贷款余额为268.56万亿元，同 比增长7.1% ...

Group 1 - The central bank has adopted a supportive monetary policy since June, leading to a significant decline in funding rates, with overnight funding rates (DR001) remaining around 1.3%, providing strong support for the bond market [1][5][6] - The bond market has shown a low volatility and narrow fluctuation pattern since July, with the key to breaking this pattern lying in the implementation of a loose monetary policy [1][2] - The yield spread between key and non-key term government bonds has been significantly compressed, indicating cautious market sentiment, with the 50-year and 30-year bond spread narrowing from nearly 15 basis points to less than 9 basis points [2][3] Group 2 - The central bank's monetary policy has shifted focus from "risk prevention" to "stabilizing growth," with a low probability of new incremental monetary policy measures in the short term [3][5] - Government bond issuance has accelerated this year, with a total issuance of 7.62 trillion yuan by the end of June, which is a significant increase compared to the previous year [3][4] - The domestic economy is experiencing a weak recovery, with a strong performance in consumption but continued weakness in investment, particularly in the real estate sector [4][5] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term, with the probability of unexpected policy measures being low, while liquidity remains supportive for the bond market [5][6] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to reach a low point of around 1.5% this year, suggesting potential entry points for investors if further adjustments occur in the bond market [6]

Market Overview - Major A-share indices weakened, with the ChiNext Index down over 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.59%. Nearly 2,900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined [1] - Government bond futures mostly opened higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.04%, the 10-year main contract up 0.01%, the 5-year main contract up 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract flat [1] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) opened high and fluctuated throughout the day, with a slight increase of 3 basis points and a trading volume of nearly 600 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Overnight SHIBOR, although showing a small decrease, remains at a low level around 1.3000%, below last year's peak, suggesting a shift in institutional strategies as the previous heavy bets on low interest rates are being corrected [1] - Beijing Shichuang Futures noted that since mid-April 2025, government bond futures have been lackluster, with low volatility and limited opportunities for both bulls and bears, but a potential upward space is expected in Q3 [1] Economic Context - The average loan interest rate in Q1 2025 remains high at 3.75%, with the actual interest rate estimated at 4.52%, which is considered restrictive for the economy, especially in a deflationary context [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been tempered, with only a 10 basis point cut occurring on May 7, despite earlier predictions of a 30-40 basis point reduction [2] - Factors influencing the slow pace of rate cuts include stable economic conditions, minimal tariff impacts, ongoing fiscal policy effects, and external pressures from the US Federal Reserve's delayed rate cuts [2] Future Outlook - There is an expectation that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in Q3, which could lead to a more aggressive domestic monetary policy response, potentially benefiting government bond futures [3] - The Boshi 30-year government bond ETF, established in March 2024, tracks the "Shanghai 30-Year Government Bond Index" and is sensitive to interest rate changes, making it a noteworthy investment option [3]