Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The probability of a rate cut in early next year is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference. The downward break of DR001 below 1.31% on the last trading day of November may have strong signaling significance, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to. The supply - demand relationship is becoming more favorable for the bond market, and it is recommended to seize the long - buying opportunity before mid - January, with the 10 - year Treasury yield potentially breaking below 1.7% (250016) [3]. - The Political Bureau meeting in December is expected to continue the combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" and support technological innovation and consumption development in the industrial direction. Historically, interest rates usually decline around the Central Economic Work Conference. Attention should be paid to the central bank's relevant statements and the demand for a good start in the economy [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but there is still a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut this year and a rate cut early next year. The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may increase in November - December, with the scale possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [3]. - The supply - demand structure is favorable for the bond market. The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decline significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the credit will not strengthen significantly. It is necessary to wait for the sentiment of non - bank institutions to improve and focus on the cross - year allocation opportunities around the Central Economic Work Conference [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 11 - month Incremental Benefits Limited, Interest Rates Oscillated Upward - In November, interest rates oscillated upward and the curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4.58bp to 1.84%, and the term spread between 1 - year and 10 - year Treasuries widened 2.67bp to 43.95bp. The main reasons were limited incremental benefits in the bond market, unclear signals of monetary policy easing, and the impact of multiple factors such as the news of the fund sales new regulations, the Sino - US presidential call, Vanke's debt extension announcement, and the increasing redemption pressure of fixed - income + products [7]. - The market logic was similar to that at the end of June and early July this year. After the interest rate decline and spread compression, there were limited new benefits, and the profit - taking orders promoted a phased adjustment in the bond market. The new regulations on fund sales had not been implemented, and related news repeatedly affected the bond market sentiment [7]. 2. Will December Be Similar to July? - It is considered unlikely that December will follow the market trend of mid - to late July. In the third quarter, interest rates continued to rise due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and a looser liquidity environment. Currently, although there are limited new benefits in the bond market, there are also insufficient incremental negative factors. The interest rate ceiling is clearer, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to [8][14]. 3. How Has the Bond Market Performed in December Historically? - Historically, Treasury yields mostly declined in December, especially since 2018. The main reasons were the weak winter production, economic pressure, and the promotion of monetary policy expectations and loose liquidity. The release of macro data in November had an impact on the bond market trend in December, with financial and export data being more prominent [16][17][18]. - The key logics to focus on in December's bond market are the expectation of loose monetary policy around important meetings, whether the weak fundamentals will trigger a rate cut, whether the central bank's bond - buying can increase, and whether the cross - year allocation market can be successfully staged [18]. 4. Will the Important Meetings Lead to Expectations of Loose Monetary Policy? - In December, there will be the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, around the Central Economic Work Conference, interest rates usually declined. The market should focus on the central bank's relevant statements around the meetings and the demand for a good start in the economy. The combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" is expected to continue, and the industrial direction will support technological innovation and consumption development [3][19][20]. 5. Will There Be a Rate Cut in January with the Continued Weak Fundamentals? - The manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly to 49.2%, but it did not exceed market expectations. The market's trading of the November PMI may be limited. The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but considering the current situation, the probability of an early - next - year rate cut is relatively high [28][35][36]. - In November, the prices of black and chemical products were weak, while non - ferrous metals continued to be strong. The subsequent CPI may rise year - on - year, mainly due to the base effect, the Spring Festival misalignment, and cost - push factors [30][32]. 6. The Net Purchase of Treasury Bonds Is Expected to Increase, and the Interest Rate of Funds May Break Downward - The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may be an important tool to cooperate with fiscal policy and guide market expectations. It is expected that the central bank's purchase scale of Treasury bonds in November - December will increase, possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [37][38][40]. 7. The Supply - Demand Structure Is Becoming More Favorable for the Bond Market 7.1 Asset Supply Continues to Decline Year - on - Year - The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. It is estimated that the issuance of government bonds in December will be 2.1007 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 496 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 642.9 billion yuan. The credit is not expected to strengthen significantly, and the social financing growth rate may continue to decline [42][43][44]. 7.2 The Cross - Year Allocation Market Will Not Be Absent, Waiting for the Recovery of Non - Bank Sentiment - In November, the net purchase of insurance companies for interest - rate bonds over 7 years significantly exceeded the seasonal level, while the purchase scale of funds, securities firms, and other product categories decreased. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of non - bank sentiment and focus on the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference to trigger the cross - year allocation market [47].

周度报告-国债期货 债市短暂修复，但调整压力并未解除 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡转弱 本周（11.24-11.30）国债期货震荡转弱。周一，受 12 月美联储 降息预期升温影响，股指高开，但随即走弱；期债低开随即拉 升，全天偏强运行。尾盘市场预期稳地产政策即将发力，国债 利率小幅上行。周二，上午股市表现较强，国债期货震荡偏 弱，午后股市虽然转弱，但债市较为担忧稳增长政策公布、基 金费率新规落地，国债期货跌幅扩大。周三，国债期货大幅下 跌。上午 CPO 板块大幅上涨，下午市场担忧央行买债规模不及 预期，机构赎回规模也较大，利率上行，曲线走陡。周四，市 场消息面平静，大跌后市场情绪有所企稳，但机构做多动力也 不强，各品种窄幅震荡。周五，早盘股市走弱，国债期货拉 升，但债市多头力量并不强，随着股市拉升，国债期货回吐涨 幅。截至 11 月 28 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债 期货 2603 合约结算价分别为 102.378、105.735、107.915 和 114.460 元，分别 ...

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.26%, the 10-year main contract down 0.10%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.4 basis points to 1.8765%, the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.40 basis points to 1.8050%, and the 30-year government bond yield up by 0.45 basis points to 2.1495% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 190 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 13, resulting in a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell by about 10 basis points to around 1.32%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system returned to 1.3% [2] - The central bank's flexible liquidity injections continue to stabilize the funding environment, with limited impact expected from the upcoming tax period in November [2] Fundamental Data - According to the latest financial statistics from the central bank, the cumulative increase in China's social financing scale for the first ten months reached 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - As of the end of October, the year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, and M2 growth was 8.2%, both showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The market had anticipated a slowdown in financial total growth due to increasing base figures, leading to a muted reaction in the bond market despite weaker financial data [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market experienced weakness primarily due to strong performance in risk markets, with a lack of a clear direction amid mixed factors [4] - Future trading focus will be on the impact of new regulations regarding bond fund redemptions and whether expectations for loose monetary policy will materialize, particularly after the release of October economic data [4] - The short-term trading range for the 10-year government bond active coupon is expected to be between 1.75% and 1.82%, with the potential for monetary policy to support bond prices [4]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.02%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 0.3 basis points to 1.8720%, the 10-year treasury bond "25附息国债16" yield down by 0.2 basis points to 1.8020%, and the 30-year treasury bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down by 0.75 basis points to 2.1450% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 195.5 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase on November 12, with a bid amount of 195.5 billion yuan and a winning amount of 195.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase rate for deposit institutions fell by 9 basis points to around 1.41%, indicating an improvement in the interbank funding conditions, while the overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system also decreased to 1.43% [2] - The funding conditions continue to improve, with prices gradually declining, although they remain relatively high; expectations for a second buyout reverse repurchase operation this month persist, and funding conditions may ease following the end of the tax period [2] Operational Recommendations - Recent easing of funding pressure has led to a strong oscillation in bond prices; the market currently lacks a clear direction due to competing factors [3] - Future trading focus will be on the implementation of new redemption fee regulations for bond funds and whether expectations for loose monetary policy will materialize, with potential strengthening of these expectations awaiting the release of October credit financial data [3] - Given the overall improvement in market sentiment, bond yield volatility is expected to decrease, with the short-term 10-year treasury bond active bond 250016.IB's volatility range likely between 1.75% and 1.82% [3] - The resumption of central bank treasury bond transactions and a bias towards loose monetary policy are expected to solidify the interest rate ceiling and bond market bottom; investors are advised to consider buying on dips [3]

Core Viewpoint - The monetary market continues a loose tone into November, with the bond market sentiment gradually recovering, indicating a stable and loose funding environment ahead [1] Group 1: Monetary Market - Multiple institutions believe that as the pace of fiscal spending stabilizes and medium to long-term liquidity pressure eases, the funding environment is expected to remain stable and loose [1] - The central bank has resumed operations for government bond purchases, which has led to an increase in market expectations for loose monetary policy [1] Group 2: Bond Market - There are clear signs of recovery in the bond market, with short-term interest rates remaining low and long-term yields stabilizing and declining [1] - Institutions generally anticipate that by year-end, the bond market will exhibit a pattern of "stable funding, declining interest rates, and warming sentiment" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the financial market remains stable at the beginning of October, with a comfortable funding environment, although there are slight fluctuations towards the end of the month due to tax periods and cross-month factors [1][3][4]. Funding Environment - The average overnight rate (R001) and the 7-day rate (R007) for October were 1.38% and 1.50%, respectively, marking the lowest levels of the year [1]. - The net issuance of government bonds in October was 528.1 billion yuan, the lowest for the year, contributing to a stable funding price [1][26]. - The funding rates experienced slight increases at the end of the month due to tax period pressures, but the central bank's actions helped to stabilize the rates [1][9]. Interbank Lending - The average daily lending volume from banks decreased to 3.80 trillion yuan in the last week of October, down from 4.25 trillion yuan in the previous weeks, primarily due to large banks reducing their lending [3]. - Despite a decrease in lending willingness, the issuance price of certificates of deposit (CDs) fell, indicating a potential turning point in CD pricing [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading, are expected to inject medium to long-term funds into the banking system, stabilizing banks' liability expectations [4][13]. - The central bank's net injection of liquidity through reverse repos and MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) indicates a continued supportive monetary policy stance [13][15]. Government Bonds - The net issuance of government bonds in October was significantly below expectations, with a total of 528.1 billion yuan, leading to a forecasted increase in issuance for November [26][29]. - The expected net issuance for November is approximately 1.23 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal increase in government bond supply [26]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate of interbank CDs decreased to 1.64% in the last week of October, indicating a downward trend in funding costs [32]. - The net financing from interbank CDs was 153.6 billion yuan, with a total issuance of 734.4 billion yuan during the same period [34]. Bill Market - The bill rates saw a significant decline, with the 1-month bill rate dropping to 0.01%, reflecting weak credit demand in October [19][20]. - Major banks shifted from net buying to net selling in the bill market, indicating a potential decrease in credit activity [19][22].

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts rose by 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.10% respectively [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with mid-to-short term bonds performing well. The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" increased by 1.05 basis points to 1.8910%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" saw a slight rise of 0.10 basis points to 1.8140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 557.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on October 29, with a net injection of 419.5 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market liquidity has turned loose, with the weighted average rate for repos falling, particularly the overnight repo rate dropping over 6 basis points to 1.40% [2] Operational Suggestions - The bond market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with short-term bonds supported by expectations of renewed central bank bond purchases, while long-term bonds are pressured by U.S.-China trade relations and rising risk appetite [3] - There is potential for short-term fluctuations in the bond market, but a recovery in market sentiment may present trading opportunities if there are event shocks leading to market adjustments [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core Views - The stock index futures market showed a volume - shrinking adjustment with overall resilience. After two consecutive days of gains, the market took a rest on Wednesday. The Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.38%. Defensive sectors like oil and gas and banks led the rise, while military and agricultural products led the decline. The A - share trading volume dropped to 1.69 trillion yuan, and the total position of stock index futures decreased by over 30,000 lots. The market is in a state of limited upside and downside, and it is advisable to hold a dumbbell - shaped structure and then shift to a growth - oriented allocation structure when the situation changes [1][7]. - The stock index options market witnessed a simultaneous decline in volume and volatility. The trading volume of the options market was 7815 million yuan, a 20.39% decrease from the previous day. The market liquidity declined, especially for small - and medium - cap varieties. The implied volatility index decreased by 0.51% on average. It is recommended to use covered call strategies to increase returns and also consider holding short straddles [2][7]. - The treasury bond futures market should focus on policy signal releases. The bond market showed a volatile performance. The expectation of loose monetary policy continued to boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market, and the central bank continued to conduct net injections in the open market, with a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan on the day. In the fourth quarter, there is a possibility of the implementation of quantitative tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but the timing may be late. In the short term, caution is still needed, and attention should be paid to policy signals after the Fourth Plenary Session [2][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The current situation is a volume - shrinking adjustment with overall resilience. The basis, spread, and total position of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have changed. The operation suggestion is to hold dividend ETF + IM [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volume and volatility have declined simultaneously, and covered call strategies can be used to deal with the situation. The trading volume of the options market decreased, the risk preference retracted, and the implied volatility continued to decline. The suggestions are covered call and short straddle strategies [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Attention should be paid to policy signal releases. The trading volume, position, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The operation suggestions include trend strategies (volatility), hedging strategies (pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels), basis strategies (pay attention to basis widening), and curve strategies (the curve may remain steep) [7][9]. Economic Calendar - The economic data of China and the US for the week are presented, including China's October LPR, September fixed - asset investment, industrial added - value, social consumer goods retail sales, and the third - quarter GDP, as well as the US's September non - farm payrolls change [10]. Important Information and News Tracking - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: Shenzhen has launched an action plan for high - quality development of mergers and acquisitions from 2025 - 2027, aiming to improve the quality of listed companies, increase the total market value of listed companies, and promote the development of the mergers and acquisitions market [11]. - **Interest Rates**: In September 2025, the average interest rates of bank time deposits for different terms are provided, such as 0.944% for 3 - month deposits [11]. - **Huawei**: On October 22, Huawei released the HarmonyOS 6 special version, including the Harmony Galaxy Interconnection architecture with a transmission rate of 160MB/s, and enhanced functions such as "touch - to - share" [12]. - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government shutdown has entered the 22nd day, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The shutdown is likely to last until November [12]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures markets is mentioned, but specific data details are not provided in the given content [13][17][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market preference is rising. The stock index futures are led by technology stocks, the implied volatility of stock index options continues to decline, and the bond market of treasury bond futures strengthens due to the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy [1]. - Before the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, a bullish view is maintained. Technology and anti - involution may become the consensus directions, and there may be opportunities in elastic sectors recently. After the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, focus on tracking the market trading volume [8]. - The bond market is affected by the change in tariff war expectations and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. The stock - bond跷跷板 effect may weaken [2][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The equity market continued its upward trend, with technology stocks leading for the second consecutive day. The Sci - Tec 50 and ChiNext Index both rose by around 3%. The market trading volume increased to around 1.9 trillion, and the number of daily limit stocks reached 90. It is recommended to focus on the dumbbell configuration. After the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, track the market trading volume [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly by 1.47%, maintaining a liquidity level below 10 billion. The implied volatility of each option variety decreased by an average of 1.61%. It is recommended to continue to hold the covered call strategy [9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.16% respectively. The bond market was affected by the change in tariff war expectations and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 20, 2025, China released a series of economic data, including the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR), September's urban fixed - asset investment annual rate, industrial added value annual rate, total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and the third - quarter GDP annual rate. The US also released the forecast for the September non - farm payrolls change [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On October 20, the Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises. The central bank will accelerate legislation in key and emerging fields. Guangdong Province issued an action plan for AI to empower the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry. Japanese central bank officials believe there is no need to raise the benchmark interest rate next week [12][13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content. Only the headings for data collection are given [14][18][30].

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a significant rebound on October 21, with the total A-share index rising by 1.62% and a trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 141.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.65% and 1.26% respectively, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 1.171 billion HKD [1] Driving Factors - The market's rise was driven by three main factors: a reiteration of "stabilizing the market" in a publication by the Learning Times, increasing expectations for Trump's visit to China, and positive earnings reports from companies like CATL, which saw a 41.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 [1][2][3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment improved significantly compared to the previous day, indicating a recovery in risk appetite, as evidenced by the increase in trading volume and the performance of related sectors [2] - The concentration of trading volume rose to 44%, nearing the historical warning line of 45%, while the proportion of stocks with prices above their 95% historical percentile reached 16.5%, suggesting potential volatility in the ongoing thematic market [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has rebounded over two consecutive days, recovering from a significant drop on October 17. The technology sector, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, is seen as undervalued after recent declines [3] - Short-term positives include expectations of improved US-China relations, while uncertainties remain regarding the impact of a strengthening US dollar on the Hong Kong market [3] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market also showed signs of recovery, with yields on medium to long-term government bonds declining by over 1 basis point. The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields fell to 1.76% and 2.07% respectively [3][4] - The core factor driving the bond market's shift from volatility to rapid recovery is the expectation of a loose monetary policy, with the central bank conducting a 159.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation [5] Commodity Market Trends - The domestic commodity market showed a cooling sentiment, with precious metals stabilizing after a recent pullback. Gold and silver prices rose by 2.02% and 0.20% respectively, while industrial metals exhibited flat performance [7] - The "anti-involution" theme-related commodities faced declines, particularly coking coal and coke, which dropped by 3.49% and 2.73% respectively, reflecting weak fundamentals [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests actively participating in thematic market trends while being cautious of structural risks. Key indicators to monitor include trading concentration and the proportion of high-priced stocks [2] - The potential for a rebound in the technology sector in Hong Kong is highlighted, with the current market conditions presenting a favorable entry point for long-term investments in AI and related industries [3]