Group 1: Report Core View - The bond market experienced a "roller coaster" in Q1 2025, with interest rates rising unexpectedly and then falling from late March. Currently, interest rates have no clear direction and may continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for new catalysts from the fundamentals or the central bank [6][12][13] - The subsequent trend of the capital market remains uncertain. Historically, the capital interest rates tend to fluctuate upward from May to June, and the central bank's over - issuance of MLF has dampened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6][12] - In the credit bond market, the net financing in the week of April 21 - 27 exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, with spreads widening [6][16][17] - In the convertible bond market, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose last week. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year, especially with the decrease in the number of outstanding convertible bonds [6][19] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 2.1 Interest - rate Bonds - The bond market is waiting for new catalysts. Interest rates may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long - duration interest - rate bonds while maintaining liquidity [6][12][13] 2.2 Credit Bonds - In the week of April 21 - 27, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 546.5 billion yuan, a 28% increase from the previous week. The total repayment was 430.6 billion yuan, also a 28% increase. The net financing reached 115.9 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation and spreads of credit bonds showed certain changes [16][17][78] 2.3 Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is likely to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to buy on dips. The convertible bond market followed the rise of the equity market last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 0.90%. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year [18][19] 2.4 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, important data to be released include China's official manufacturing PMI for April, the US ADP employment data for April, and the eurozone's economic sentiment index for April [20][21] 2.5 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - rate Bonds - This week, the estimated issuance of interest - rate bonds is 233.1 billion yuan, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no plans to issue treasury bonds. The planned issuance of local bonds is 93.1 billion yuan, and the estimated actual issuance of policy - financial bonds is about 140 billion yuan [22] Group 3: Interest - rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank maintained a net injection through reverse repurchase. The total injection through reverse repurchase was 882 billion yuan, and the MLF was renewed with an unexpected 600 billion yuan. The total net injection in the open - market operations was 774 billion yuan. The trading volume in the capital market remained high, and the prices decreased [26][27] 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Swing Around the Expectation of Loose Monetary Policy - Recent central bank actions such as the unchanged LPR, the over - issuance of MLF, and the central bank's statements have led to fluctuations in bond market interest rates, which mainly increased. On April 25, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds increased compared to the previous week [38] Group 4: High - frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates increased. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales remained positive, while land and property sales showed different trends. In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices rose, and coal prices were divided [50][51] Group 5: Credit Bond Review 5.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From April 21 to 27, 2025, there were bond defaults and overdue events, and some companies had their ratings or outlooks downgraded or faced other negative events [77][78] 5.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance of credit bonds increased, and the net financing exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and there were 14 bonds whose issuance was cancelled or postponed [78][79] 5.3 Secondary Trading - The valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, and the spreads widened. The turnover rate decreased slightly, and most of the top - ten turnover bonds were issued by central and state - owned enterprises. The number of high - discount bonds decreased slightly, and most of them were real - estate enterprise bonds [17][82][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the market is between the difficulty of disproving the broad - money expectation and the high uncertainty of the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. This contradiction will not change in the short term, determining that the bond market will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. In the coming week, the market is mixed with both long and short factors, and there are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 21st to April 27th, treasury bond futures oscillated at a high level. On Monday, with the LPR rate unchanged and the stock market performing strongly, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Tuesday, after the tax period, the capital market marginally loosened, and treasury bond futures oscillated upward. On Wednesday, Trump's softened attitude led to an expected decline in future tariff levels, and market risk appetite recovered, causing treasury bond futures to oscillate downward. On Thursday, the expectation of trade - war easing was marginally revised downward; in the morning, treasury bond futures strengthened, but in the afternoon, the broad - money expectation declined slightly, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Friday, in the morning, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and in the afternoon, due to the Politburo meeting policy not exceeding market expectations, treasury bond futures rose rapidly. As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market will continue to oscillate with mixed long and short factors. The broad - money expectation is difficult to be completely disproven as the probability of April's manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations is high, but some long - position investors may choose to hold cash during the holiday to avoid trade - related risks. There are trading opportunities for both long and short positions, and the strategy should be quick - in - and - quick - out. Specific strategies include: long - position traders can look for opportunities around the release of PMI data, short - position traders can focus on changes in long - position investors' risk - aversion sentiment; pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties; wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy; and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread [2][15][19] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 6757.83 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 802.48 billion yuan, changing by - 1004.24 billion yuan and - 7235.36 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 47 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1911.23 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1625.12 billion yuan, changing by - 94.94 billion yuan and + 387.94 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 530 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 9782.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1876.00 billion yuan, changing by + 2693.40 billion yuan and + 1918.30 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [24] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of April 25th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.66%, and 1.93% respectively, changing by + 3.39, + 3.74, + 1.14, and + 2.30 basis points compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds compressed by 0.93bp to 20.97bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed by 2.60bp to 11.45bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.16bp to 26.46bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.61%, and 1.69% respectively, changing by - 0.14, + 2.50, and + 1.40bp compared to the previous weekend [28] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 40403, 51627, 66295, and 103436 lots respectively, changing by + 3563, - 7758, - 1285, and + 126 lots compared to the previous weekend. The open interests were 142952, 203371, 222757, and 128694 lots respectively, changing by - 3119, - 1582, + 1923, and + 4351 lots compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - It is recommended to adopt the positive - arbitrage strategy for short - term varieties. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - performance of the positive - arbitrage strategy has become more prominent. The reasons for the relatively stable positive - arbitrage opportunities in short - term varieties are that although the capital market has marginally loosened, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the broad - money expectation. Once the easing policy is implemented, the short - term varieties have a large potential for supplementary growth, and the logic of going long on short - term varieties is relatively clear. Compared with spot bonds, going long on futures saves more capital. In mid - to - early April, the net basis of TS showed a compression trend [44] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of April 25th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.254, - 0.290, - 0.165, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.070, - 0.025, - 0.045, and - 0.180 yuan compared to the previous weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 8820 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 8080 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, the net reverse - repurchase investment was 740 billion yuan. As of April 25th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.66%, 1.64%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively, changing by - 5.29, - 5.67, - 9.30, and - 1.60bp compared to the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.33 trillion yuan, 98.31 billion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.73%, lower than the previous week's level [51][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined slightly. As of April 25th, the US dollar index rose 0.36% to 99.5836 compared to the previous weekend, the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.29%, down 5 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 263 basis points [62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of April 25th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3539.28, 6148.72, and 1656.60 points respectively, changing by + 38.06, + 68.33, and + 13.04 points compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. As of April 25th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.78, 4.58, and 7.72 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.07, - 0.07, and + 0.24 yuan/kg compared to the previous weekend [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - There are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions [67]

周度报告-国债期货 长线看多债市，下周多空机会并存 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡转涨 国 债 期 货 本周（04.07-04.13）国债期货大幅上涨。周一，受贸易冲突影 响，全球风险偏好大幅回落，国债期货大幅上涨。周二，汇率 贬值压力上升、资金面并未转松，叠加股票上涨，国债期货回 调。周三，宽货币预期升温、资金面边际转松，国债期货上 涨。股市震荡拉升，长债表现相对偏弱。周四，美国对等关税 暂缓 90 天执行，市场对关税威胁的担忧下降，风险偏好偏强运 行，长端品种表现偏弱，但资金面边际转松，短端品种表现较 强，曲线走陡。周五，早盘资金面宽松，国债期货高开，但午 间市场期待贸易冲突缓和，国债期货走弱。全天短端表现强于 长端。截至 4 月 11 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债 期货主连合约结算价分别为 102.656、106.410、108.985 和 119.660 元，分别较上周末变动+0.112、+0.295、+0.410 和+0.980 元。 ★长线看多债市，下周多空机会并存 重要事项：本报告版权归上海东证期货有限公司所有。未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任 ...