1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rebound of the stock index futures market needs to be observed for its sustainability. The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, but there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to deal with it with high - dividend and price - rising chains [1][7]. - The short - term amplitude of stock index options has increased, and the mid - term situation still needs to be observed. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. - The sentiment in the bond market has improved. The capital side is expected to continue to support the bond market sentiment, but caution is still needed for the ultra - long - term [3][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 1.68 points, - 4.48 points, 8.97 points, and 6.26 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 3.52 points, - 1.09 points, 0.08 points, and - 1.12 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 21.0 points, 6.2 points, 9.0 points, and 67.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.6 points, 0.4 points, - 11.8 points, and - 4.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 628 lots, - 1896 lots, 2748 lots, and - 9704 lots [7]. - The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, both rising more than 2%. The TMT and new energy vehicle chains were active, and the market volume rose to 1.83 trillion. The number of limit - up stocks was 57, and the number of limit - down stocks was 25. The relatively small number of limit - up stocks indicated a general rise in the market. ETFs saw significant volume in the afternoon, which may have a positive impact on market sentiment. However, there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to hold IC and the dividend index [1][7]. Stock Index Options - The total turnover of the options market exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time in nearly a month. Due to the market rebound, the proportion of intraday call option trading volume increased, the PCR of open interest rebounded, and the ratio PCR decreased significantly. The indicators basically returned to the level of two days ago, showing a volatile sentiment. The volatility of each variety has increased compared to two days ago, but the overall level is still at a relatively low level since July. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also changed. The central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 189.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7][8]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.06%, 0.01%, and 0.63% respectively. The bond market sentiment improved, and the interest rates of all maturities decreased, with the ultra - long - term decreasing relatively more. The capital side was relatively loose, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy increased, which supported the long - position sentiment in the bond market. The ultra - long - term may have an oversold rebound. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels, appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis, and expect the yield curve to remain steep [3][9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On December 15, 2025, China's reserve currency in November was 3.8019683 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 3.7780993 trillion yuan [12]. - On December 16, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted change in non - farm payrolls in the US in November was 64,000, compared with the previous value of - 105,000 and the forecast value of 50,000 [12]. - On December 18, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted year - on - year core CPI in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 3%. On December 19, 2025, the year - on - year PCE price index in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 2.79% [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Domestic macro: On December 17, the central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. In the first 11 months, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Sichuan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.5% year - on - year. In Shaanxi, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Henan increased by 8.0% year - on - year [13]. - Non - ferrous metals: On December 15, the inventories of zinc, lead, tin, and copper reached new highs in several months, with significant increases in changes. The inventories of nickel and aluminum decreased, and the inventories of aluminum alloy and cobalt remained stable at low levels [14]. - Energy and chemical industry: The 2026 regulatory work meeting of the National Energy Administration was held in Beijing. It was required to strengthen energy supervision law enforcement and ensure the safety of the energy and power system [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data summaries were provided in the given text for this part.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent rise in gold prices and the significant expansion of gold ETFs, indicating a renewed interest in gold as a long-term investment amid changing monetary policies and liquidity conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 15, spot gold prices rose, with London gold prices briefly surpassing $4,350 per ounce [1]. - The overall trend for international gold prices has been a steady increase, supported by safe-haven and allocation demand, with last week's London spot gold closing at $4,299 per ounce, a 2.4% increase week-on-week [3]. Group 2: Gold ETF Expansion - The expansion of gold ETFs has been notable, with five gold ETFs surpassing a management scale of 10 billion yuan as of December 12 [2][3]. - Major products like Huaan Gold ETF and Bosera Gold ETF have shown significant growth, with Huaan's scale increasing from 28.676 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 90.629 billion yuan by December 12 [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Monetary Policy - There is a clear trend of funds concentrating on core gold indices, with the total management scale of ETFs linked to the SGE Gold 9999 index reaching 214.496 billion yuan, including 147.587 billion yuan added this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to restart balance sheet expansion is expected to lead to a more accommodative liquidity environment, which could benefit gold prices [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the Fed's dovish stance may lead to more aggressive rate cuts, further supporting gold prices in the long term [5]. - However, concerns about inflation and limited rate cuts indicated by the Fed's dot plot may create volatility in gold prices, suggesting a potential for price corrections driven by news and technical factors [6].

目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 国债期货周报 宽货币预期升温，超长债仍待企稳 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、工信息部办、中国人民银行发布《关于用好绿色金融政策支持绿色工厂建设的通知》。其中提到，拓宽直接融资渠道。支持 符合条件的企业发行绿色债券和转型债券，募集资金加大绿色工厂建设投入，鼓励金融机构做好绿色债券发行承销和投资等配套服务；2、中 央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域；3、 商务部将出台加快零售业创新发展的意见，通过统筹规划、合理布局，提升商品和服务质量，协同优化存量和增量，推动线上线下公平竞争 等，实现新供给、新需求的良性互动。 基本面：1、国内:1）11月份我国制造业PMI为49.2%，比上 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.06% as of December 1, 2025, with a trading volume of 15.22 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.77% [1] - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year Treasury ETF has been 82.69 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [1] - The current size of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 32.335 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 693 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, with 13 days showing positive inflows [1] Group 2 - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds with a maturity of 25-30 years [2] - The index serves as a benchmark for performance comparison and is part of the broader China Bond Index family [2] Group 3 - Short-term market trends are influenced by policy expectations and risk appetite, leading to a potentially volatile market, while medium-term expectations suggest a stronger trend with significant elasticity in the Treasury Long (TL) IRR [1] - The central bank's potential resumption of government bond purchases and the implementation of total monetary policy tools may increase institutional allocation demand in the fourth quarter [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The probability of a rate cut in early next year is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference. The downward break of DR001 below 1.31% on the last trading day of November may have strong signaling significance, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to. The supply - demand relationship is becoming more favorable for the bond market, and it is recommended to seize the long - buying opportunity before mid - January, with the 10 - year Treasury yield potentially breaking below 1.7% (250016) [3]. - The Political Bureau meeting in December is expected to continue the combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" and support technological innovation and consumption development in the industrial direction. Historically, interest rates usually decline around the Central Economic Work Conference. Attention should be paid to the central bank's relevant statements and the demand for a good start in the economy [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but there is still a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut this year and a rate cut early next year. The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may increase in November - December, with the scale possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [3]. - The supply - demand structure is favorable for the bond market. The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decline significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the credit will not strengthen significantly. It is necessary to wait for the sentiment of non - bank institutions to improve and focus on the cross - year allocation opportunities around the Central Economic Work Conference [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 11 - month Incremental Benefits Limited, Interest Rates Oscillated Upward - In November, interest rates oscillated upward and the curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4.58bp to 1.84%, and the term spread between 1 - year and 10 - year Treasuries widened 2.67bp to 43.95bp. The main reasons were limited incremental benefits in the bond market, unclear signals of monetary policy easing, and the impact of multiple factors such as the news of the fund sales new regulations, the Sino - US presidential call, Vanke's debt extension announcement, and the increasing redemption pressure of fixed - income + products [7]. - The market logic was similar to that at the end of June and early July this year. After the interest rate decline and spread compression, there were limited new benefits, and the profit - taking orders promoted a phased adjustment in the bond market. The new regulations on fund sales had not been implemented, and related news repeatedly affected the bond market sentiment [7]. 2. Will December Be Similar to July? - It is considered unlikely that December will follow the market trend of mid - to late July. In the third quarter, interest rates continued to rise due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and a looser liquidity environment. Currently, although there are limited new benefits in the bond market, there are also insufficient incremental negative factors. The interest rate ceiling is clearer, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to [8][14]. 3. How Has the Bond Market Performed in December Historically? - Historically, Treasury yields mostly declined in December, especially since 2018. The main reasons were the weak winter production, economic pressure, and the promotion of monetary policy expectations and loose liquidity. The release of macro data in November had an impact on the bond market trend in December, with financial and export data being more prominent [16][17][18]. - The key logics to focus on in December's bond market are the expectation of loose monetary policy around important meetings, whether the weak fundamentals will trigger a rate cut, whether the central bank's bond - buying can increase, and whether the cross - year allocation market can be successfully staged [18]. 4. Will the Important Meetings Lead to Expectations of Loose Monetary Policy? - In December, there will be the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, around the Central Economic Work Conference, interest rates usually declined. The market should focus on the central bank's relevant statements around the meetings and the demand for a good start in the economy. The combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" is expected to continue, and the industrial direction will support technological innovation and consumption development [3][19][20]. 5. Will There Be a Rate Cut in January with the Continued Weak Fundamentals? - The manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly to 49.2%, but it did not exceed market expectations. The market's trading of the November PMI may be limited. The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but considering the current situation, the probability of an early - next - year rate cut is relatively high [28][35][36]. - In November, the prices of black and chemical products were weak, while non - ferrous metals continued to be strong. The subsequent CPI may rise year - on - year, mainly due to the base effect, the Spring Festival misalignment, and cost - push factors [30][32]. 6. The Net Purchase of Treasury Bonds Is Expected to Increase, and the Interest Rate of Funds May Break Downward - The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may be an important tool to cooperate with fiscal policy and guide market expectations. It is expected that the central bank's purchase scale of Treasury bonds in November - December will increase, possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [37][38][40]. 7. The Supply - Demand Structure Is Becoming More Favorable for the Bond Market 7.1 Asset Supply Continues to Decline Year - on - Year - The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. It is estimated that the issuance of government bonds in December will be 2.1007 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 496 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 642.9 billion yuan. The credit is not expected to strengthen significantly, and the social financing growth rate may continue to decline [42][43][44]. 7.2 The Cross - Year Allocation Market Will Not Be Absent, Waiting for the Recovery of Non - Bank Sentiment - In November, the net purchase of insurance companies for interest - rate bonds over 7 years significantly exceeded the seasonal level, while the purchase scale of funds, securities firms, and other product categories decreased. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of non - bank sentiment and focus on the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference to trigger the cross - year allocation market [47].

周度报告-国债期货 债市短暂修复，但调整压力并未解除 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡转弱 本周（11.24-11.30）国债期货震荡转弱。周一，受 12 月美联储 降息预期升温影响，股指高开，但随即走弱；期债低开随即拉 升，全天偏强运行。尾盘市场预期稳地产政策即将发力，国债 利率小幅上行。周二，上午股市表现较强，国债期货震荡偏 弱，午后股市虽然转弱，但债市较为担忧稳增长政策公布、基 金费率新规落地，国债期货跌幅扩大。周三，国债期货大幅下 跌。上午 CPO 板块大幅上涨，下午市场担忧央行买债规模不及 预期，机构赎回规模也较大，利率上行，曲线走陡。周四，市 场消息面平静，大跌后市场情绪有所企稳，但机构做多动力也 不强，各品种窄幅震荡。周五，早盘股市走弱，国债期货拉 升，但债市多头力量并不强，随着股市拉升，国债期货回吐涨 幅。截至 11 月 28 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债 期货 2603 合约结算价分别为 102.378、105.735、107.915 和 114.460 元，分别 ...

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.26%, the 10-year main contract down 0.10%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.4 basis points to 1.8765%, the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.40 basis points to 1.8050%, and the 30-year government bond yield up by 0.45 basis points to 2.1495% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 190 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 13, resulting in a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell by about 10 basis points to around 1.32%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system returned to 1.3% [2] - The central bank's flexible liquidity injections continue to stabilize the funding environment, with limited impact expected from the upcoming tax period in November [2] Fundamental Data - According to the latest financial statistics from the central bank, the cumulative increase in China's social financing scale for the first ten months reached 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - As of the end of October, the year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, and M2 growth was 8.2%, both showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The market had anticipated a slowdown in financial total growth due to increasing base figures, leading to a muted reaction in the bond market despite weaker financial data [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market experienced weakness primarily due to strong performance in risk markets, with a lack of a clear direction amid mixed factors [4] - Future trading focus will be on the impact of new regulations regarding bond fund redemptions and whether expectations for loose monetary policy will materialize, particularly after the release of October economic data [4] - The short-term trading range for the 10-year government bond active coupon is expected to be between 1.75% and 1.82%, with the potential for monetary policy to support bond prices [4]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.02%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 0.3 basis points to 1.8720%, the 10-year treasury bond "25附息国债16" yield down by 0.2 basis points to 1.8020%, and the 30-year treasury bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down by 0.75 basis points to 2.1450% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 195.5 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase on November 12, with a bid amount of 195.5 billion yuan and a winning amount of 195.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase rate for deposit institutions fell by 9 basis points to around 1.41%, indicating an improvement in the interbank funding conditions, while the overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system also decreased to 1.43% [2] - The funding conditions continue to improve, with prices gradually declining, although they remain relatively high; expectations for a second buyout reverse repurchase operation this month persist, and funding conditions may ease following the end of the tax period [2] Operational Recommendations - Recent easing of funding pressure has led to a strong oscillation in bond prices; the market currently lacks a clear direction due to competing factors [3] - Future trading focus will be on the implementation of new redemption fee regulations for bond funds and whether expectations for loose monetary policy will materialize, with potential strengthening of these expectations awaiting the release of October credit financial data [3] - Given the overall improvement in market sentiment, bond yield volatility is expected to decrease, with the short-term 10-year treasury bond active bond 250016.IB's volatility range likely between 1.75% and 1.82% [3] - The resumption of central bank treasury bond transactions and a bias towards loose monetary policy are expected to solidify the interest rate ceiling and bond market bottom; investors are advised to consider buying on dips [3]

Core Viewpoint - The monetary market continues a loose tone into November, with the bond market sentiment gradually recovering, indicating a stable and loose funding environment ahead [1] Group 1: Monetary Market - Multiple institutions believe that as the pace of fiscal spending stabilizes and medium to long-term liquidity pressure eases, the funding environment is expected to remain stable and loose [1] - The central bank has resumed operations for government bond purchases, which has led to an increase in market expectations for loose monetary policy [1] Group 2: Bond Market - There are clear signs of recovery in the bond market, with short-term interest rates remaining low and long-term yields stabilizing and declining [1] - Institutions generally anticipate that by year-end, the bond market will exhibit a pattern of "stable funding, declining interest rates, and warming sentiment" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the financial market remains stable at the beginning of October, with a comfortable funding environment, although there are slight fluctuations towards the end of the month due to tax periods and cross-month factors [1][3][4]. Funding Environment - The average overnight rate (R001) and the 7-day rate (R007) for October were 1.38% and 1.50%, respectively, marking the lowest levels of the year [1]. - The net issuance of government bonds in October was 528.1 billion yuan, the lowest for the year, contributing to a stable funding price [1][26]. - The funding rates experienced slight increases at the end of the month due to tax period pressures, but the central bank's actions helped to stabilize the rates [1][9]. Interbank Lending - The average daily lending volume from banks decreased to 3.80 trillion yuan in the last week of October, down from 4.25 trillion yuan in the previous weeks, primarily due to large banks reducing their lending [3]. - Despite a decrease in lending willingness, the issuance price of certificates of deposit (CDs) fell, indicating a potential turning point in CD pricing [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading, are expected to inject medium to long-term funds into the banking system, stabilizing banks' liability expectations [4][13]. - The central bank's net injection of liquidity through reverse repos and MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) indicates a continued supportive monetary policy stance [13][15]. Government Bonds - The net issuance of government bonds in October was significantly below expectations, with a total of 528.1 billion yuan, leading to a forecasted increase in issuance for November [26][29]. - The expected net issuance for November is approximately 1.23 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal increase in government bond supply [26]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate of interbank CDs decreased to 1.64% in the last week of October, indicating a downward trend in funding costs [32]. - The net financing from interbank CDs was 153.6 billion yuan, with a total issuance of 734.4 billion yuan during the same period [34]. Bill Market - The bill rates saw a significant decline, with the 1-month bill rate dropping to 0.01%, reflecting weak credit demand in October [19][20]. - Major banks shifted from net buying to net selling in the bill market, indicating a potential decrease in credit activity [19][22].