Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) has shown a positive trend with a 1.04% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, driven by expectations of monetary easing from the central bank and potential significant financial policies to be announced at the upcoming Lujiazui Forum [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of June 11, 2025, the gold ETF fund has achieved a net value increase of 92.20% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds and fourth out of 21 in the precious metals category [1] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and a maximum cumulative gain of 16.53% [1] - The fund's performance metrics include an average monthly return of 3.27% and an annual profit percentage of 80.00%, with a historical three-year holding profit probability of 100.00% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold ETF fund has seen a financing buy-in amount of 32.70 million yuan and a financing balance of 3.731 billion yuan, indicating ongoing leverage positioning in the market [1] - The fund's year-to-date relative drawdown against the benchmark is 0.35% as of June 11, 2025, suggesting a relatively stable performance compared to market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Fees and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is set at 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10%, which are competitive rates in the market [4] - The tracking error for the fund over the past month is 0.002%, indicating a high level of tracking precision compared to similar funds [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week (20250602 - 20250608), US stocks, the Hang Seng Index, and the FTSE China A50 Index all rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.18%, 1.50%, and 1.17% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index rose 3.76%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index climbed 2.16%, and the FTSE China A50 Index went up 0.58% [2]. - Most A - share sectors rose, with technology and non - ferrous metals leading the gains. The wind all - A index increased by 1.61%, and 23 out of 30 CITIC industries advanced, with communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and computers having weekly gains of over 3% [3]. - Interest - rate bond prices rose, and the yield curve steepened in a bullish manner. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.18% compared to May 30, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond dropped 1.65 BP to 1.6547% [4]. - The capital price declined, and the central bank advanced the placement of outright reverse repurchases. The R007 and DR007 decreased by 18.88 BP and 10.07 BP respectively, and the central bank net - injected 3283 billion yuan this week [5]. - The bond market leverage level slightly increased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume rose from 6.50 trillion yuan on May 30, 2025, to 6.99 trillion yuan on June 6, 2025 [6]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 10 BP to 4.51% as of June 6, 2025 [7]. - The US dollar depreciated, and the gold price rose. The US dollar index fell 0.24%, and the prices of London gold spot, COMEX gold futures, Shanghai gold spot, and futures all increased [8]. - The US May non - farm payrolls increased less year - on - year but exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased. The probability dropped from 74.3% to 59.3% as of June 7 [9]. - Looking ahead, the domestic broad - money expectation and external uncertainties still exist. The equity and bond markets may benefit from the broad - money expectation, but the equity market may be negatively affected by external tariff uncertainties, while gold is expected to gain [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content Stock Market - US stocks: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.18%, 1.50%, and 1.17% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index increased by 3.76% [2]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose 2.16% [2]. - A - shares: The wind all - A index rose 1.61%. Most sectors advanced, with communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and computers having significant gains [3]. Bond Market - Domestic bonds: Interest - rate bond prices rose, the yield curve steepened bullishly, the capital price declined, the central bank net - injected funds, and the bond market leverage level slightly increased [4][5][6]. - US bonds: US Treasury yields mostly increased, and the curve became steeper [7]. Currency and Commodity Markets - Currency: The US dollar depreciated against most major currencies, including the euro, pound, and the Chinese yuan [8]. - Commodity: Gold prices rose both internationally and domestically [8]. Macroeconomic Data - US non - farm payrolls: In May, the US added 13.9 million non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations but increasing less year - on - year. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased [9].

Group 1 - The central bank's announcement of a large-scale reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of June is aimed at alleviating market concerns regarding the upcoming maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) [1][2][3] - The operation involves a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement with a term of three months, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the banking system [2][4] - Analysts believe that the central bank's proactive measures are intended to stabilize market confidence and prevent liquidity tightening, especially with significant CD maturities approaching [3][6] Group 2 - The weighted average issuance rate of interbank CDs has shown initial signs of decline, with a drop from 1.82% to 1.80% recently, indicating a potential easing of market pressures [3][4] - The upcoming week is critical for observing the performance of the interbank CD market, as over 1.2 trillion yuan in CDs will mature, marking the largest single-week maturity volume in history [7] - Despite the pressures from maturing CDs, factors such as increased fiscal spending and seasonal inflows of wealth management funds may help mitigate the outflow of bank deposits [7][8] Group 3 - The central bank's liquidity management strategy may involve increasing medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations to offset the impact of maturing reverse repos, indicating a flexible approach to maintaining liquidity [8] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations due to various factors, including tax payment periods and the maturity of approximately 930 billion yuan in reverse repos [8] - The central bank's clear stance on liquidity support suggests that the funding environment is likely to remain stable despite the anticipated disturbances [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "TS Contract: Can It Still Be Used for Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage? - Interest Rate Weekly (Week 3 of May)" [1] - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi, with a practice certificate number of S0010522030002 [2] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan, with a practice certificate number of S0010123060036 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 3, the bond market's maturity yields have first decreased and then increased. Among treasury bond futures, the TL contract has been strong, while the TS/TF/T main contracts have declined [2]. - The weak performance of the TS contract is due to the previous large premium and the change in the expectation of loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy changed significantly in Q1, and there are differences in the short - term expectation of loose monetary policy after the double - cut in May. The yield curve has flattened instead of steepening as expected [3]. - As of May 16, the basis of the TS main contract is - 0.07 yuan, and the IRR is 1.79%. The basis has significantly converged, and the IRR is close to the capital interest rate, so the cost - effectiveness of cash - and - carry arbitrage is insufficient [4]. - In the short term, the TS contract may still be in a premium state because of the continuous negative carry. The inversion between R001 and the 2 - year treasury bond maturity yield has decreased from about 60bp at the beginning of the year to 15bp on May 16, and the negative carry phenomenon of some varieties will continue [4]. - Considering that the tight capital situation in Q1 will not repeat, the short - term interest rate has a ceiling and the probability of a sharp decline is low. With the significant convergence of the basis, one can consider participating in the possible rise of the TS contract [4]. Group 4: Analyst and Research Assistant Introduction - Analyst Yan Ziqi is the assistant director of the Research Institute of Hua'an Securities and the chief analyst of fixed income. He has 8 years of experience in sell - side fixed income and equity research, and has won the second place in the 2024 Wind Gold Analyst and the best analyst in the 2023 Choice fixed income industry [12]. - Research Assistant Hong Ziyan is a master of financial engineering from the University of Southern California, covering macro - interest rates, institutional behavior, and treasury bond futures research [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the bond market may maintain a volatile state, but considering the high necessity of loose monetary policy, the general trend of interest rate decline is relatively certain, and it is recommended to allocate when the price is high [4]. - Currently, policies remain firm, focusing on "stabilizing employment," and are expected to have limited impact on the bond market. In terms of the fundamentals, it is expected that it will be difficult to reach an agreement in the Sino - US tariff negotiations in the short term, and the economy is expected to face pressure in the second quarter under the tariff impact. However, the previous rapid decline in interest rates has already priced in part of the weakening fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Reasons for the Current Bond Market Volatility - Under the external tariff shock, the bond market reacted quickly, pricing in the expectation of weakening fundamentals and loose monetary policy. From April 2 to April 7, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate dropped 15.7BP in two trading days, approaching the previous low in early January 2025, and further decline was restricted [11]. - From the perspective of bank asset comparison, the current bond market position implies a rate cut of about 20BP. Since the beginning of the year, the expectation of a rate cut has repeatedly failed to materialize. The timing of the rate cut is still uncertain, and the rhythm of loose monetary policy is unclear, which also hinders the decline of interest rates [11]. 3.2 Review of Bond Market Volatility since 2022 - **February - May 2022**: The bond market was in a dilemma between the expectations of broad credit and broad money. Fiscal policy efforts were limited and liquidity was loose, which pushed interest rates to break through downward [4][12]. - **February - March 2023**: The game between post - epidemic economic recovery and weak policy expectations led to bond market volatility. After April, the weakening of fundamental recovery momentum drove interest rates down [4][13]. - **May - mid - July 2024**: Central bank regulatory pressure emerged, causing interest rate fluctuations, which were later broken by the rate cut at the end of July [4][15]. - **January - mid - February 2025**: After the market over - anticipated the rate cut, there was a volatile situation, which was adjusted with the correction of the broad - money expectation [4][19]. 3.3 Key Points to Break the Bond Market Stalemate - **Broad - money expectation**: When the bond market is in a volatile state, the attitude of monetary policy is often unclear. As the orientation of monetary policy becomes clear, interest rates will break through significantly. Trigger points include unexpected reserve requirement ratio cuts, changes in the central bank's public statements, and changes in central bank liquidity injection and money - market interest rates [24]. - **Fiscal policy intensity**: Fiscal policy is an important variable affecting the bond market, especially when the economy is weak. When fiscal intensity exceeds expectations, it will drive interest rates up, and vice versa [24]. - **Fundamental operation**: Although the economy is continuous and difficult to change significantly in the short term, when affected by internal and external shocks, the direction of fundamental operation may change, breaking the bond market's volatile stalemate [24].

Group 1: Report Core View - The bond market experienced a "roller coaster" in Q1 2025, with interest rates rising unexpectedly and then falling from late March. Currently, interest rates have no clear direction and may continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for new catalysts from the fundamentals or the central bank [6][12][13] - The subsequent trend of the capital market remains uncertain. Historically, the capital interest rates tend to fluctuate upward from May to June, and the central bank's over - issuance of MLF has dampened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6][12] - In the credit bond market, the net financing in the week of April 21 - 27 exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, with spreads widening [6][16][17] - In the convertible bond market, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose last week. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year, especially with the decrease in the number of outstanding convertible bonds [6][19] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 2.1 Interest - rate Bonds - The bond market is waiting for new catalysts. Interest rates may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long - duration interest - rate bonds while maintaining liquidity [6][12][13] 2.2 Credit Bonds - In the week of April 21 - 27, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 546.5 billion yuan, a 28% increase from the previous week. The total repayment was 430.6 billion yuan, also a 28% increase. The net financing reached 115.9 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation and spreads of credit bonds showed certain changes [16][17][78] 2.3 Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is likely to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to buy on dips. The convertible bond market followed the rise of the equity market last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 0.90%. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year [18][19] 2.4 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, important data to be released include China's official manufacturing PMI for April, the US ADP employment data for April, and the eurozone's economic sentiment index for April [20][21] 2.5 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - rate Bonds - This week, the estimated issuance of interest - rate bonds is 233.1 billion yuan, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no plans to issue treasury bonds. The planned issuance of local bonds is 93.1 billion yuan, and the estimated actual issuance of policy - financial bonds is about 140 billion yuan [22] Group 3: Interest - rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank maintained a net injection through reverse repurchase. The total injection through reverse repurchase was 882 billion yuan, and the MLF was renewed with an unexpected 600 billion yuan. The total net injection in the open - market operations was 774 billion yuan. The trading volume in the capital market remained high, and the prices decreased [26][27] 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Swing Around the Expectation of Loose Monetary Policy - Recent central bank actions such as the unchanged LPR, the over - issuance of MLF, and the central bank's statements have led to fluctuations in bond market interest rates, which mainly increased. On April 25, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds increased compared to the previous week [38] Group 4: High - frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates increased. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales remained positive, while land and property sales showed different trends. In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices rose, and coal prices were divided [50][51] Group 5: Credit Bond Review 5.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From April 21 to 27, 2025, there were bond defaults and overdue events, and some companies had their ratings or outlooks downgraded or faced other negative events [77][78] 5.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance of credit bonds increased, and the net financing exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and there were 14 bonds whose issuance was cancelled or postponed [78][79] 5.3 Secondary Trading - The valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, and the spreads widened. The turnover rate decreased slightly, and most of the top - ten turnover bonds were issued by central and state - owned enterprises. The number of high - discount bonds decreased slightly, and most of them were real - estate enterprise bonds [17][82][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the market is between the difficulty of disproving the broad - money expectation and the high uncertainty of the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. This contradiction will not change in the short term, determining that the bond market will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. In the coming week, the market is mixed with both long and short factors, and there are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 21st to April 27th, treasury bond futures oscillated at a high level. On Monday, with the LPR rate unchanged and the stock market performing strongly, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Tuesday, after the tax period, the capital market marginally loosened, and treasury bond futures oscillated upward. On Wednesday, Trump's softened attitude led to an expected decline in future tariff levels, and market risk appetite recovered, causing treasury bond futures to oscillate downward. On Thursday, the expectation of trade - war easing was marginally revised downward; in the morning, treasury bond futures strengthened, but in the afternoon, the broad - money expectation declined slightly, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Friday, in the morning, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and in the afternoon, due to the Politburo meeting policy not exceeding market expectations, treasury bond futures rose rapidly. As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market will continue to oscillate with mixed long and short factors. The broad - money expectation is difficult to be completely disproven as the probability of April's manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations is high, but some long - position investors may choose to hold cash during the holiday to avoid trade - related risks. There are trading opportunities for both long and short positions, and the strategy should be quick - in - and - quick - out. Specific strategies include: long - position traders can look for opportunities around the release of PMI data, short - position traders can focus on changes in long - position investors' risk - aversion sentiment; pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties; wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy; and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread [2][15][19] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 6757.83 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 802.48 billion yuan, changing by - 1004.24 billion yuan and - 7235.36 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 47 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1911.23 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1625.12 billion yuan, changing by - 94.94 billion yuan and + 387.94 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 530 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 9782.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1876.00 billion yuan, changing by + 2693.40 billion yuan and + 1918.30 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [24] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of April 25th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.66%, and 1.93% respectively, changing by + 3.39, + 3.74, + 1.14, and + 2.30 basis points compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds compressed by 0.93bp to 20.97bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed by 2.60bp to 11.45bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.16bp to 26.46bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.61%, and 1.69% respectively, changing by - 0.14, + 2.50, and + 1.40bp compared to the previous weekend [28] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 40403, 51627, 66295, and 103436 lots respectively, changing by + 3563, - 7758, - 1285, and + 126 lots compared to the previous weekend. The open interests were 142952, 203371, 222757, and 128694 lots respectively, changing by - 3119, - 1582, + 1923, and + 4351 lots compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - It is recommended to adopt the positive - arbitrage strategy for short - term varieties. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - performance of the positive - arbitrage strategy has become more prominent. The reasons for the relatively stable positive - arbitrage opportunities in short - term varieties are that although the capital market has marginally loosened, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the broad - money expectation. Once the easing policy is implemented, the short - term varieties have a large potential for supplementary growth, and the logic of going long on short - term varieties is relatively clear. Compared with spot bonds, going long on futures saves more capital. In mid - to - early April, the net basis of TS showed a compression trend [44] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of April 25th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.254, - 0.290, - 0.165, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.070, - 0.025, - 0.045, and - 0.180 yuan compared to the previous weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 8820 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 8080 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, the net reverse - repurchase investment was 740 billion yuan. As of April 25th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.66%, 1.64%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively, changing by - 5.29, - 5.67, - 9.30, and - 1.60bp compared to the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.33 trillion yuan, 98.31 billion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.73%, lower than the previous week's level [51][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined slightly. As of April 25th, the US dollar index rose 0.36% to 99.5836 compared to the previous weekend, the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.29%, down 5 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 263 basis points [62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of April 25th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3539.28, 6148.72, and 1656.60 points respectively, changing by + 38.06, + 68.33, and + 13.04 points compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. As of April 25th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.78, 4.58, and 7.72 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.07, - 0.07, and + 0.24 yuan/kg compared to the previous weekend [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - There are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for treasury bonds are all "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term bullish on the bond market, with both long and short opportunities coexisting next week. Before the double - cut expectation is falsified, the market is in a long - position market, but due to limited odds for going long and disturbances from factors like trade negotiations and funds, the market may weaken slightly at times. Next week, the market may face downward pressure in the first half of the week, and it's feasible to lay out short - term short positions at high prices at the beginning of the week. After the market weakens, short - term long positions can be laid out at low prices [2][17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 7th to April 13th, treasury bond futures rose significantly. Influenced by trade conflicts on Monday, global risk appetite dropped sharply, and treasury bond futures rose significantly. On Tuesday, due to increased exchange - rate depreciation pressure, unchanged tight liquidity, and rising stocks, treasury bond futures corrected. On Wednesday, with the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy and marginal easing of liquidity, treasury bond futures rose, but long - term bonds performed relatively weakly as the stock market fluctuated upward. On Thursday, as the US postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, the market's concern about tariff threats decreased, risk appetite was strong, long - term varieties performed weakly, but short - term varieties performed strongly as liquidity eased marginally, and the yield curve steepened. On Friday, treasury bond futures opened higher due to loose morning liquidity but weakened at noon as the market expected trade - conflict mitigation. Throughout the day, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds. As of April 11th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.656, 106.410, 108.985, and 119.660 yuan respectively, up 0.112, 0.295, 0.410, and 0.980 yuan from the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Long - term bullish on the bond market, with both long and short opportunities coexisting next week. As the US has exempted some products from tariffs and economic indicators in March are expected to be good, the market may face downward pressure in the first half of the week. It's advisable to lay out short - term short positions at high prices at the beginning of the week. As the necessity of a reserve - requirement ratio cut increases, short - term long positions can be laid out at low prices after the market weakens. Strategies include: holding long positions for allocation - type investors; paying attention to the strategy of steepening the curve when it flattens; and considering the cash - and - carry strategy for short - term TS and TF main contracts with relatively high IRR, and the strategy of increasing the TS basis if liquidity eases gradually [2][17][21] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 55 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 690.101 billion yuan and a net financing of - 180.55 billion yuan, down 9.777 billion yuan and 659.777 billion yuan respectively from last week. 28 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 201.941 billion yuan and a net financing of 163.9 billion yuan, up 1.4203 billion yuan and down 0.2377 billion yuan respectively from last week. 499 negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) were issued, with a total issuance volume of 682.73 billion yuan and a net financing of 125.66 billion yuan, up 410.72 billion yuan and 125.66 billion yuan respectively from last week [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of April 11th, the yields to maturity of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.49%, 1.66%, and 1.86% respectively, down 8.50, 6.68, 6.48, and 4.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The spreads between 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y treasury bonds widened by 1.15, 0.2, and 1.73 basis points to 25.54, 16.18, and 20.72 basis points respectively. The yields to maturity of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.56%, 1.56%, and 1.70% respectively, down 3.53, 4.50, and 3.35 basis points from the previous weekend [24] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose significantly. As of April 11th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.656, 106.410, 108.985, and 119.660 yuan respectively, up 0.112, 0.295, 0.410, and 0.980 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 50,609, 72,966, 93,058, and 145,409 lots respectively, up 8,652, 20,675, 19,549, and 22,489 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 132,087, 194,613, 207,546, and 116,922 lots respectively, up 15,901, 23,643, 11,057, and down 2,582 lots from the previous weekend [33][37] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The cash - and - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running high. After the marginal easing of liquidity at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the cash - and - carry strategy has become prominent. There are stable cash - and - carry opportunities for short - term varieties because although liquidity has eased marginally, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the expectation of loose monetary policy. Once the easing policy is implemented, short - term varieties have a large room for catch - up growth. Since April, the net basis of TS has been compressing [42] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of April 11th, the inter - delivery spreads between the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.154, - 0.195, - 0.060, and - 0.100 yuan respectively, down 0.086, 0.180, 0.035, and 0.020 yuan from the previous weekend [46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 763.4 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, there was a net monetary withdrawal of 289.2 billion yuan. Next week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Tuesday. As of April 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.65%, 1.61%, and 1.62% respectively, down 4.14, 4.47, 0.80, and 7.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged - repurchase this week was 6.71 trillion yuan, 628.5 billion yuan more than last week. The overnight proportion was 86.01%, slightly lower than last week [52][56][58] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose significantly. As of April 11th, the US dollar index fell 3.06% to 99.7690 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.48%, up 47 basis points from the previous weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 282.5 basis points. Due to intensifying trade conflicts, the US dollar index weakened. With rising inflation expectations, the Fed not releasing positive signals, and some investors selling US treasury bonds, the yield of US treasury bonds rose rapidly [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices and agricultural product prices both declined this week. As of April 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy - Chemical Index were 3,501.54, 6,084.77, and 1,646.77 points respectively, down 226.04, 270.68, and 123.44 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.84, 4.84, and 7.41 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.07, 0.03, and 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [64] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - Allocation - type investors can continue to hold long positions and wait for the implementation of easing policies. There are both long and short trading opportunities next week [65]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint 受月初资金面转松以及避险情绪升温影响，上周债市整体走强，长债收益率大幅下行，短端利率下行幅度小于长端，收益率曲线转而平坦化；本周债市料将延续强势，因美国超预期加征关税冲击全球经济，加剧出口下行压力，叠加房地产市场低迷，市场对基本面偏弱预期加深，且降准降息等逆周期调节政策必要性上升，提升宽货币预期，在市场避险情绪持续高涨、出口预期转弱叠加宽货币预期升温背景下，债市短期内将延续强势[1]。 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Secondary Market**: 上周债市整体走强，10年期国债期货主力合约累计上涨0.64%，10年期国债收益率较前周五下行9.46bp，1年期国债收益率较前周五下行4.50bp，期限利差明显收窄；周一至周二债市偏弱震荡，周三至周四因资金面宽松、避险情绪高涨而大幅走强[1][3]。 - **Primary Market**: 上周共发行利率债44只，环比减少48只，发行量6999亿，环比减少1229亿，净融资额4792亿，环比减少2127亿；分券种看，国债发行量、净融资额环比增加，政金债、地方债发行量及净融资额环比减少；利率债认购需求整体尚可，国债平均认购倍数3.94倍，政金债3.50倍，地方债20.54倍[9]。 3.2 Last Week's Important Events 3月官方制造业PMI继续回升，制造业PMI指数为50.5%，比2月上升0.3个百分点，非制造业商务活动指数为50.8%，比2月上升0.4个百分点；制造业PMI上升受春节影响消退、战略性新兴产业景气度上升、稳增长政策发力等因素拉动，非制造业服务业PMI回升受促消费政策和AI大模型发布等提振[11]。 3.3 Real Economy Observation 上周生产端高频数据涨跌不一，石油沥青装置开工率小幅回落，半胎钢开工率与前一周基本持平；需求端BDI指数继续回落，30大中城市商品房销售面积大幅回落；物价方面，猪肉价格微幅下跌，大宗商品价格多数下滑，螺纹钢、原油、铜价格均回落[12]。 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation 上周央行公开市场净回笼资金5019亿元；R007、DR007均显著下行，股份行同业存单发行利率继续大幅下行，各期限国股直贴利率均下行，质押式回购成交量明显回升，银行间市场杠杆率继续波动上行[21]。